OPEN 663: STACK THE DECK (GAME OVER)


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Post Post #2500 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:15 pm

Post by Desperado »

especially when it's dunn's flip that actually confirms realeo as town
;)
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Post Post #2501 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:50 pm

Post by Regfan »

I'm not complaining about being given another day to finish this. Initial instinct is that the kill on Realeo (Despite him being confirmed town via Dunns flip) points slightly moreso to ThinkBig being scum given he's aware that Realeo was going to hard push him today and would want him dead over me.

I'm going to do a reread of the game with the knowledge of Dunn is scum, I want to be able to completely remove the option of SH/Nydus/Dave being scum before I actually lock in a chain lynch of Desperado/ThingBig being a game winning move.

Desperado, hope you at least remove that "Why listen to the IC????" shit from you game today now. Want you to work with me here, explain in real detail why ThingBig+Dunn are not a scum team. Dunn would have been aware there's a PR claim in the shadows when the initial TB push was going through with it being a 2/3 chance of being a tracker or roleblocker; these roles turn into a full cop with 1 scum remaining, he could not afford to buss at all therefore his defence of TB makes a lot of sense as scum there, after Kop had died he no longer has to worry about TB dying or not as he can't be caught via roles so his turnaround on TB makes sense as scum D3 as well. TB similaly selfvoted when Dunn was getting run up. So yeah, convince me why you ruling this option out is you having a town thought process.
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Post Post #2502 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:51 pm

Post by Desperado »

at no point have i said anything remotely like "why listen to the ic?" so just stop it with that
;)
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Post Post #2503 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:52 pm

Post by Desperado »

what turnaround?

Dunn had TB as town from the word go and did not waver on that until it was too late
;)
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Post Post #2504 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:53 pm

Post by Desperado »

In post 2303, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 2287, Regfan wrote:He constantly states he has ThingBig as town and that he doesn't want to lynch him, then look at the reasoning that's attached to it; it's solely and 100% based around AH's push on TB and then stating "Scum are pushing TB", none of it at all has anything to do with TB's play.
My read doesn't come from his play. It comes from the dead traitor. This is true, but you seem to think I have to be looking at thinkbig's play (he hasn't done anything of note, but lurking out definitely doesn't always mean scum)

I'm reconsidering that read now though, after seeing him hop on to me. I'm probably ok with lynching TB...?
this is the closest dunn comes to turning his read on tb around
;)
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Post Post #2505 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:56 pm

Post by Desperado »

my point was that dunn flipping yesterday was the absolute worst case scenario for the scum team, if he and think were partners it makes absolutely no sense to be sticky with his think townread when it means he gets lynched instead
;)
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Post Post #2506 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:57 pm

Post by Desperado »

finally, please explain how cutting off the guy i've been trying to mislynch all game when i would finally be able to ram it through is a scum thought process
;)
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Post Post #2507 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:57 pm

Post by Desperado »

cuz it kinda sounds like you're saying i'm scum for evolving my reads
;)
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Post Post #2508 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:07 pm

Post by Regfan »

Your and interaction with me around and were infuriating to read from my perspective.

Re; Dunns turnaround, his defence of TB D2 re; his stance on TB D3 has a noticeable decrease. His stance on TB has a lot of motivation if they're partners, a lot and I think you can agree to this. I don't think Dunn thought his stance on TB was going to be called out as much as it was, I think he thought he could have gotten away with it and truthfully had I not brought it up it may have gone unmentioned or at least with him receiving as little slack as possible. I'd also point towards TBs actions throughout yesterday re; the timing of his selfvote to make a lot of sense if the scum team is exactly Dunn+TB since TB is never end-gaming town as mafia. I really don't see any reason whatsoever to rule them being out a scum team and you're going to have to provide a lot more for me to ever understand you doing so.

I have no issue with evolving reads, my reads have changed several times throughout the game, that said I think evolving reads needs to have a real thought process with solid logic behind it to make any real sense. I think you providing lots of reasons for X being scum, the scum that flipped having defended X in a position where scum couldn't allow a bussing happening should never allow you to remove X from the suspect pool. Sure you removing him from the pool doesn't have any direct scum motivation re; dodging a singular lynch but it does allow you to break free from the "Desp or TB" plan that would lead towards you losing as scum.
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Post Post #2509 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:11 pm

Post by Regfan »

Anyway I'm going to carve out a few hours tonight to go really read through this properly and hopefully reduce the suspect pool really confidently to two with no doubts about the other reads at all, I'll post my analysis once I'm done but others chiming in and stating their thoughts would be much appreciated.
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Post Post #2510 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:12 pm

Post by Desperado »

thinkbig's vote dunn > self vote > vote dunn trajectory does not make sense if they're partners

dunn's thinkbig townread is seriously insane if they are partners. before you replaced in he was the only person defending Think in any meaningful way. when D2 began Dunn had just finished PR hunting instead of killing the IC--he was very, very clearly townreading Think for the towncred after his flip
;)
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Post Post #2511 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:14 pm

Post by Desperado »

also, ~wifom~ but if you think i kill realeo over you there after everything that went down yesterday...i mean jesus dude
;)
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Post Post #2512 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:21 pm

Post by Regfan »

ThinkBigs initial vote on Dunn could easily be considered as distancing while believing that the odds that Dunnstral getting lynched were relatively low, to actually lynch Dunstral town needed a vote from one of [Dave/Desperado/Realeo] and at that point it looked very likely that neither vote anyone other than himself, it's a very low-risk high-reward distancing vote at the time. Timing of his selfvote was once he realised that Realeo was very much contemplating voting Dunnstral which makes sense as a ploy to save Dunnstral from being lynched, he was called out and attacked repeately about this afterwards which pretty much forces his hand re; his final vote. This is a narrative that makes plenty of sense as mafia and therefore should certainly not be an angle that you'd be removing considering as town.

Similarly if Dunnstral is mafia with TB he absolutely has to defend him on D2 regardless of if he's the only person doing so or not, mafia getting lynched there with a tracker/roleblocker in the game creates autowin just from surviving 2 nights and a very high town win rate surviving the singular night. It's also not impossible that he was trying to go for town cred in the ThingBig!Town situation but there's nothing here that allows you to eliminate the possibility of ThingBig being mafia.

I also think you kill me after how yesterday played out but know that it involves a lot of WIFOM and things I'd rather not focus on reading into too much.
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Post Post #2513 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:24 pm

Post by Desperado »

i think you're now ascribing a lot of things to thinkbig's play that are not there

which does not track with the way you presented your experience with thinkbig d2

does thinkbig strike you as the kind of player to make a low risk high reward distancing vote on his role cop partner?
;)
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Post Post #2514 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:25 pm

Post by Desperado »

cuz i don't get the impression he's even thinking about the current move he's making, let alone three steps ahead
;)
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Post Post #2515 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:29 pm

Post by Desperado »

and theres also one OOG reason that i think is very compelling but it's even sketchier than talking about his activity in other games and is better left for end game

needless to say i had been interpreting his play as scum who had checked out because even the best scum can only defend themselves from constant accusations for so long, but i now believe him to have just been frustrated town who didn't know how/wasnt capable of defending himself
;)
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Post Post #2516 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:33 pm

Post by Regfan »

I attribute different competences towards his scum and town play, bussing or distancing is not something I think is impossible to come from him he was comfortable enough to distance with a partner in Micro 672. Again let me just make this clear, I'm not saying you have to have a strong scum read remaining on ThingBig, I'm not even saying you have to be voting him right now. I'm saying you
ruling him out
is what makes no sense, there's plenty of things that can be explained with him being scum here and sure some that can be with him as town (I know the OOG you're referring to) but he's very far from being anywhere near a town list and think you ruling him out here is nonsensical, even moreso than I found you not realising that Dunn was mafia. Would like to see a lot more analysis from you and particular some reasoning that points towards Dave being mafia because I hard ruled out Dave-Dunn as a scum team earlier; I'll be going back over him/them when I reread but it's not a possibility I consider highly likely.
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Post Post #2517 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:41 pm

Post by Superhans »

In post 2496, grapes wrote:
FINAL DAY 3 VC


Dunnstral ( 5 ) -
(Regfan, nydushermain, Superhans, ThinkBig, Realeo)

ThinkBig ( 2 ) -
(Desperado, davesaz)
davesaz ( 1 ) -
(Dunnstral)

Not Voting ( 0 )


Five to lynch.






Dunnstral
(Role Cop)
was lynched Day 3.


Night 3 begins now and ends in (expired on 2017-02-02 15:15:02).
TB played shadily AF yesterday.
Want to lynch in
{TB, Davesaz or Desperado}
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Post Post #2518 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:44 pm

Post by Regfan »

Evening SuperMan, so effectively Nydus is the only person you feel comfortable with right now? What's your scum read order of Desp/Dave/TB at the moment and why? Particularly interested if you have any reads based on interactions between players from those three and Dunnstral that impacts your read.
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Post Post #2519 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:45 pm

Post by Superhans »

In post 2513, Desperado wrote:i think you're now ascribing a lot of things to thinkbig's play that are not there

which does not track with the way you presented your experience with thinkbig d2

does thinkbig strike you as the kind of player to make a low risk high reward distancing vote on his role cop partner?
He didn't explain his vote on Dunnstral whatsoever even though I asked him at least 3 times to do so.
His play has been absolutely shocking and I wouldn't put plot past him to realise that Dunns is doomed and vote to save himself.
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Post Post #2520 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:45 pm

Post by Superhans »

Hiya Reg
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Post Post #2521 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:45 pm

Post by Desperado »

given how differently we appear to be reading partnerships that isn't surprising

my analysis on dave pretty much starts and ends with him not doing anything all game but acting indignant when anyone even looks at him the wrong way. i could go back and quote all the times he does this but we both know i dont need to do that.

it felt genuine for a while and i think you've touched on that in some of your previous analysis on him, and i was willing to believe it was genuine because i had much stronger reads elsewhere, but dunn flipping scum was the wake up call i was begging for pretty much the entirety of yesterday. nothing had happened to alter my D2 reads and i was hurting the town as a result; dave's limp wristed play yesterday makes a lotttttttt more sense to me as paralyzed scum who doesn't want to buss Dunn for obvious reasons.
;)
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Post Post #2522 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:48 pm

Post by Superhans »

In post 2518, Regfan wrote:Evening SuperMan, so effectively Nydus is the only person you feel comfortable with right now? What's your scum read order of Desp/Dave/TB at the moment and why? Particularly interested if you have any reads based on interactions between players from those three and Dunnstral that impacts your read.
Haven't had a chance to look though Dunns interactions so I'm hesitant to order them rn.
Maybe more willing to lynch TB considering how he played yesterday.
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Post Post #2523 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:49 pm

Post by Desperado »

mafia is such a weird game sometimes

if you two were dunnstral and thinkbig and you were both scum, does your play even
remotely
resemble what occurred?
;)
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Post Post #2524 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:50 pm

Post by Superhans »

Agree that Davesaz seems like an obvious candidate, I would like to hear your case on why Dave cannot have been partnering Dunnstral.
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