OPEN 663: STACK THE DECK (GAME OVER)


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Post Post #2525 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:51 pm

Post by Superhans »

In post 2523, Desperado wrote:mafia is such a weird game sometimes

if you two were dunnstral and thinkbig and you were both scum, does your play even
remotely
resemble what occurred?
How do you mean?
TB lynched Dunns fairly late would consider his vote NAI
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Post Post #2526 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:52 pm

Post by Desperado »

like, it's N2

you've outed both prs, lynched one just as you planned when you took just the rolecop, and killed the other

thinkbig is taking heat from everywhere and really hasn't been able to play the game for quite some time now, at least halfway through D2 and maybe before

why do you as dunn stick to your guns when your flip is literally the worst case scenario?
;)
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Post Post #2527 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:54 pm

Post by Desperado »

i mean that if dunnstral and thinkbig were both scum, then they should have been doing everything possible to ensure Dunn survived D3 AND looked favorable doing so

which means a slow erosion of his traitor based townread, which would have been entirely justified given thinkbig's almost complete absence and lack of content when he was here

but that isn't what happened, at all. he stuck to his guns on think being town because the traitor pushed him and only started turning that read around after the damage had already been done
;)
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Post Post #2528 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:58 pm

Post by Regfan »

@SH - You should take a look at them sometime and we can talk afterwards.
In post 2523, Desperado wrote:mafia is such a weird game sometimes
This I can agree with.
In post 2523, Desperado wrote:if you two were dunnstral and thinkbig and you were both scum, does your play even
remotely
resemble what occurred?
I probably play it very similarly to have Dunn did albeit wouldn't be so passive come D3 but that's moreso a playstyle thing.
In post 2526, Desperado wrote:why do you as dunn stick to your guns when your flip is literally the worst case scenario?
Because lynching ThingBig and TB flipping scum clears a lot of townies, it's never a great move for scum to intentionally aim for. TB's flip hard clears you, pretty much hard clears Realeo and certainly hardclears Aliseas slot holder Nydus. It also provides a mine of information for town to hunt in.
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Post Post #2529 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:02 pm

Post by Desperado »

In post 2528, Regfan wrote:Because lynching ThingBig and TB flipping scum clears a lot of townies, it's never a great move for scum to intentionally aim for. TB's flip hard clears you, pretty much hard clears Realeo and certainly hardclears Aliseas slot holder Nydus. It also provides a mine of information for town to hunt in.
/shrug

i may have argued that it would, but it would not have hard cleared me

it definitely does not hard clear realeo and actually does the opposite, flipping thinkbig d3 is the only thing that keeps realeo even remotely lynchable

and i have no clue how thinkscum would clear dusher
;)
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Post Post #2530 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:02 pm

Post by Regfan »

If you look at it from the perspective that N2 Dunn thought I had a town read on him (And I pretty much did) and that I was also alongside with him in defending TB he goes into D3 under the impression that he's absolutely not getting lynched and that TB may also survive, this is a good scenario for him and therefore makes him pushing players like Dave/SH fit with the narrative I'm drawing. I think you agree with me that until I brought up and hard pushed Dunnstral he was never getting lynched yesterday, he also would have believed this making the reasoning you're ruling out TB-Dunn very questionable. Again I can understand you maybe not hard pushing TB to the level you were yesterday but ruling him out based on a lot of things that objectively make him look bad? Nope, not following that.

I'll discuss your reasoning behind your Dave scum read and my read on him and Dunn once I've done the deep reread so remind me to get back to that then.
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Post Post #2531 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:04 pm

Post by Desperado »

but the main reason you turned on dunnstral was his sticky thinkbig read...
;)
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Post Post #2532 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:06 pm

Post by Desperado »

and my entire point is that dunnstral as scum had no reason to continue being sticky on that read with both PRs dead whether he thought he was in danger of being lynched or not...as you said, thinkbig was not making it to endgame no matter what happened.
;)
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Post Post #2533 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:07 pm

Post by Desperado »

give me my thinkbig lynch, kill you, use me to mislynch hans, kill realeo, 4-way MYLO with me/dunn/dusher/dave

i mean, that sounds WAY better than what actually happened
;)
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Post Post #2534 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:09 pm

Post by Regfan »

TB scum flip certainly would have cleared you in my eyes, you attempted to lynch him D1/D2 & D3 all while knowing that there's 2 unclaimed PRs in the setup knowing if they're specific roles you could be putting yourself in near autoloss by hard bussing like that in a 2 man setup, if you take that big a risk as scum and it pays off kudos to you but anyone making that move is someone I'd town read or expect to lose mechanically. Would have made Realeo look a lot better re; him pushing TB pretty strongly all game and certainly 100% would have cleared the Nydus slot, Alisea replaced out because they refused to drop their TB scum read when conversing with me, that is not a s/s thing to do. I think intentionally flipping TB D3 as a partner would have been a move Dunn avoided as much as possible given doing so provides far too much information towards the town, even if he looks good via his D3 vote on TB his D2 play would also be a strike against him.
In post 2531, Desperado wrote:but the
main reason
you turned on dunnstral was his
sticky thinkbig read
...
This is not true. And this is what I found so fucking frustrating trying to explain to you yesterday, it wasn't his TB read alone that I scum read. It's the way he handled reading you/dave/superhans//tb all combined, it was very obvious scum play and had absolutely no town motivation behind it whatsoever.
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Post Post #2535 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:11 pm

Post by Desperado »

i didn't say it was that alone

i said it was the main thing that began to turn your read on him

is that a mischaracterization?
;)
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Post Post #2536 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:12 pm

Post by Regfan »

Stop stop stop this damn angle you're going with. It's so illogical it's making my head hurt. You're playing under the assumption that Dunn thought it was likely that he was going to be lynched going into D3, this is not a stance he would ever have had given I had a town read stated on him D2 and absolutely no one in the game was pushing him. Look at it from his perspective, he doesn't get pushed until mid-late D3, everything beforehand is him being comfortable as scum, as comfortable scum you don't buss knowing doing so makes a lot of town players look better than you based on how D2 played out.
In post 2535, Desperado wrote:i didn't say it was that alone
i said it was the main thing that began to turn your read on him
is that a mischaracterization?
Yes. :facepalm: It certainly is. :facepalm: (I never use emojes but that's the only nice way I can think to put that).
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Post Post #2537 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:14 pm

Post by Desperado »

reg, those players would have looked better TO YOU

but you'd be dead

realeo literally became confirmed town on dunn's flip--any other outcome would have been better for the scum team than that.
;)
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Post Post #2538 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:15 pm

Post by Desperado »

it doesn't even matter what realeo would have looked after a thinkscum flip, you're talking about "hard clearing" based on reads and i'm talking about hard clearing based on role mechanics
;)
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Post Post #2539 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:17 pm

Post by Desperado »

In post 2533, Desperado wrote:give me my thinkbig lynch, kill you, use me to mislynch hans, kill realeo, 4-way MYLO with me/dunn/dusher/dave

i mean, that sounds WAY better than what actually happened
you can call me illogical or whatever you want man

but this was 100% in play yesterday

and dunn threw it away because bussing would have made too many town players look good???
;)
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Post Post #2540 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:18 pm

Post by Desperado »

keeping in mind that
he is now dead, the IC is still alive because a VT became confirmed town on dunn's flip, and you are still pushing his partner today anyway
;)
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Post Post #2541 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:20 pm

Post by Desperado »

last thing before i go to bed, reg:

why are you alive and not realeo?
;)
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Post Post #2542 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:21 pm

Post by Desperado »

shit, it doesn't make a lick of sense for thinkbig OR me to leave you alive
;)
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Post Post #2543 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:21 pm

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You're missing the point here. Dunnstral flipping his read on TB and joining the push on him while being able to distance himself a little from TB provides town a lot of information to work with, a scum flip (Meaning the game always ends at F3 instead of F5), lots of information to work with based on how D2 played out (Including him defending him then). Even if I'm not alive there's other people that have eyes, internet and the ability to read that would be able to bring up how TB interactions impact the living players, sure him intentionally bussing may have made it look
better
than not but it still doesn't make him look
good
. Better scum play, the one I would have made and the one I expect most people to make his maintain the town read on your partner and go for the win via pushing people that you think are mslynchable (ie. Dave/SH), again and this is something you have to agree with; Dunn couldn't have thought he was genuinely in threat of being lynched going into yesterday therefore he's not making moves that are based on self-preservation for himself.

Like you should never be able to remove TB-Dunn as a potential pair based on any of this, they may not be the exact scum team but there's nothing here, nothing at all that should allow you to remove this from the realm of possibility.
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Post Post #2544 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:22 pm

Post by Desperado »

almost like the scum was banking on you mislynching one of us, then killing you and trying to lynch the other in MYLO
;)
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Post Post #2545 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:23 pm

Post by Desperado »

In post 2543, Regfan wrote:Dunn couldn't have thought he was genuinely in threat of being lynched going into yesterday therefore he's not making moves that are based on self-preservation for himself.
it's not about surviving D3, it's about surviving the rest of the game
;)
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Post Post #2546 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:25 pm

Post by Regfan »

In post 2541, Desperado wrote:last thing before i go to bed, reg:

why are you alive and not realeo?
Could be because TB is scum and knew that Realeo would hard push him over anyone else today. Could be because you're scum and thought leaving me alive removes my legacy and thought you could make me second guess albeit I don't think that's particularly likely. Could be because it's neither TB or you and scum thought leaving me alive would help them get a win. Could be for lots of reasons, I certainly don't think it's worth
too much
reading into it.
In post 2542, Desperado wrote:shit, it doesn't make a lick of sense for thinkbig OR me to leave you alive
...Yeah I'm done interacting with you, you have no sense of logical thought process in you at all and I'm somewhat actually praying that you're scum faking this level of stupidity but don't really think that's the case right here. TB has to make a kill last night, he has to kill one of Realeo or myself, shooting Realeo leaves myself alive; the current situation knowing that I'm lynching between You/Him ie. 50% chance the person he leaves alive votes him, if he kills me that leaves Realeo alive, someone that has a 100% chance of voting him; there's plenty of reason for TB to kill Realeo over myself there.
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Post Post #2547 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:28 pm

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In post 2546, Regfan wrote:...Yeah I'm done interacting with you, you have no sense of logical thought process in you at all and I'm somewhat actually praying that you're scum faking this level of stupidity but don't really think that's the case right here.
wow
;)
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Post Post #2548 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:35 pm

Post by Regfan »

Truth hurts. You're attempting to suggest that even the night kill makes TB town when regardless of who he shoots he knows the other person has a chance to push him the following day and the person that actually died was the more likely of the two to vote him in the day. The night kill if anything points towards him being scum, not points against it; he may not necessarily be scum but the angle your pushing here is nonsensical. Your inability to understand this basic concept combined with your inability to even acknowledge yesterday how Dunns play was clear mafia just means we're never going to have a logical conversation on any level.

That said I'm going to go have a beer and relax for a bit before actually digging into the reading and trying to solve this properly. I'm happy to discuss thoughts and reads with anyone else in the meantime, would particularly love to hear some content and thoughts from Dave & Nydus in the meantime.
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Post Post #2549 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:44 pm

Post by Superhans »

K I don't see you Dave can't be scum?

Dunnstral pushing him seems like WIFOM. Dave never voted Dunnstral either.
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