Mini 1871 - Town of Whispers - Game Over

[Misère]

VOTE: BTD6_maker

For lurking in HS' neighborhood. (Jin is guilty of this too but L-2 is a good place for him.)

[Misère]

'This should end by N2'
implies knowledge that there is 2 scum
we all know there is 2 scum, that's how the setup works, it's in the opening post.

jin in our neighbourhood (paraphrased to dodge the nightkill):
>do you think there is 2 or 3 scum (going for the derpclear)
>i think 3 mafia would be overpowered, i do
>who do you think would be a strong mafia team?

does anybody else spot the contradiction

I'm convinced, provided the timestamps check out. Did Jin say "this should end by N2" before asking those questions in the neighborhood?

[Misère]

no, it's 20 mins apart the other way around.

the way you phrased that makes me feel like you knew that. speaking of which, how did you know that jin and btd where lurking in our neighbourhoods?

You wrote

both of my pts have at least 10 views
what the fuck is with that shit?
does it count every time you refresh egosearch or something?

If someone were actively posting in your neighborhood you wouldn't think 10 views is a lot.

[Misère]

Regardless, Jin has been in enough games not to take seriously the possibility of 3:6 even if he didn't know the setup.

UNVOTE: BTD6_maker

It's too soon to give intent to hammer Jin.

[Misère]

I think it's very likely that Jin is guilty, even knowing the order of the posts. HS is putting their neck out in a way that would not be wise as any alignment if they were misrepresenting the situation. If Jin turns out to be town, that looks very bad for HS.

---

VOTE: BTD6_maker

For lurking in HS' neighborhood. (Jin is guilty of this too but L-2 is a good place for him.)

This is a scumclaim. How do you see HS' neighborhoods?

I don't, I inferred it from HS' post earlier. I already explained this.

[Misère]

I think my previous point was misconstrued. HS' accusation is towny

to me

regardless of how Jin flips. I was saying that it is towny precisely because it's a dangerously strong, attention-getting case to make this early as scum.

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Misère]

A bit of what Misere said in the neighborhood I liked but I wish she was still talking more to me :/

If there's something in particular you want to talk with me about, feel free to raise the topic. I am checking the neighborhood regularly.

Is there anyone with a reasonably active neighbor right now who is not particularly townreading them? (I'm not particularly townreading SlySly but he is not a reasonably active neighbor.)

[Misère]

Oh wait. I just read my private topic with SlySly and he said he just realized there were two neighborhoods. So, I guess that explains why he thought they were masons if he missed or skimmed over the link to the second topic.

Did he say he had just noticed his topic with you, or his topic with me? I want to know if this corroborates what he said in my topic with him.

[Misère]

A few posts in he said he had just noticed he had two neighborhoods. In fact this was just after I asked him what you were saying in your neighborhood with him, to compare with HS' statements. So that fits together consistently. Since town are more likely to misunderstand the setup, I'm comfortable taking this as a basis for a townread on SlySly.

...but it wouldn't hurt to have the Dunnstral vote explained because I don't think I understand it.

I disliked Dunnstral's immediate OMGUS-style vote on Dominator. I also disliked his flippant push on me for my commentary on the HS-Jin interaction. Aside from my suspicions, I wanted to see how Dunn would react to the vote and in particular if I would get an OMGUS-style vote back as well -- though, having gotten a positive result I admit I'm not sure how to read it.

[Misère]

In fact this was just after I asked him what you were saying in your neighborhood with him, to compare with HS' statements.

By 'you' of course I mean Jin.

[Misère]

That leaves TheDominator and beeboy (now Shannon). I townread 85 upon my initial read because I found it funny/cheeky but I realize I have too many townreads, and if I've been too liberal somewhere, it's probably here. I do think that carelessness like what TheDominator displayed comes more from town than scum though. He seems like he's totally a newb based on how he's playing so far so I'd expect him to be a bit more uptight.

This read on Dominator is problematic. Dominator has five posts: one naked vote, three one-sentence bits of fluff, and a prod dodge. This is not enough content to have any serious opinion on whether he is "totally a newb" or "uptight," let alone to form a nuanced read like the above.

Can you explain what makes Dominator read as a newb specifically?

[Misère]

Fairly.

[Misère]

Loaded questions are fun, aren't they?

[Misère]

VOTE: Dominator

This is better than Dunnstral right now.
1. He needs to be more active.
2. He has interesting associations with both Dunnstral and BlackVoid.

[Misère]

@misere
that was an actual question, plz don't ignore me thx.

It wasn't a very good question. If I were trying to act like a worse player than I am, I wouldn't admit it.

[Misère]

VOTE: Dominator

This is better than Dunnstral right now.
1. He needs to be more active.
2. He has interesting associations with both Dunnstral and BlackVoid.

What are the associations? You can't just throw this out there with nothing

Dominator voted Dunnstral right out of the gate and didn't change or comment on this when I added my vote there, and Dunnstral is openly calling for Dominator's lynch, which lowers the probability of a Dominator-Dunnstral scumteam. (Not rules out, but lowers the probability.)

BlackVoid issued what I consider a very strange analysis of Dominator, granting him a (weak) town read on the strength of a few empty posts, which somewhat raises the probability of a Dominator-Dunnstral scumteam.

Aside from this, based on his last post Dominator is being wilfully opaque, meaning the only good way to sort him is to flip him.

[Misère]

BlackVoid issued what I consider a very strange analysis of Dominator, granting him a (weak) town read on the strength of a few empty posts, which somewhat raises the probability of a Dominator-

BlackVoid

scumteam.

EBWOP.

[Misère]

I like the Dominator vote, but I'm confused by the argument.

I find this mildly scummy. This is not willing to put in much effort into Day 1 at all, and I get the impression that this is habitual.

If it's habitual, it's anti-town but not scummy. It's only scummy if it differs from his town play.

[Misère]

Simple. The following is such obvious rvs sarcasm that anyone that took it seriously needs rope.

jin, whose your scumbuddy? is it btd6_maker?

You know it HS, you nailed it. I dont understand how you figured it out so fast. This should end by N2!

This looks like a misunderstanding of HS' argument. Of course Jin was being sarcastic in that he was not claiming scum or claiming BTD6 was his partner. The concern is that, by saying "This should end by N2," he shows understanding that there are exactly two scum. This is at odds with his speculating in the neighborhood with HS about how many scum are in the game, and suggests he was never really confused about that matter. There is no real reason for town to lie about something like that.

Possible explanations are:

1. Jin was scum faking a dumb-town tell.
   
2. Jin was sarcastically saying "yeah, the scum are exactly BTD6 and I" without actually knowing there were exactly 2 scum.
   
3. Jin figured out the setup sometime between those two events.
   
4. Jin was trying some kind of reaction test.
   
5. HS misrepresented or outright lied about the contents of the neighborhood.

I don't find 4 or 5 plausible. If it were a reaction test he would have admitted to it afterward, and if HS were lying or misrepresenting then Jin would have called that out when accused.

HS was of course arguing that it's 1.

Jin's 73 seems to be claiming it's 2, but now that I reread I realize it could also be interpreted as simply failing to understand the point HS made. But failure to understand would itself be a towntell.

I was pretty sure it was 1, but this is complicated by the fact that I want to townread BlackVoid. I'll need associatives to come to a decision on this.

[Misère]

Shannon, what is your actual opinion of the Jin affair itself? You say that HS was right to push it and that you "have seen similar slips happen, and scum have got away with it," but does it in fact make you suspect BlackVoid (né Jin)?

I notice a major reason for your suspicion of me is that I spoke as if Jin was the lynch

du jour

early on. I did this because I actually thought that was the case, because I thought HS' evidence was conclusive. I'm sort of surprised that no one else did, but only slightly, since it seems everyone here is so jaded by people crying "slip" and "scumclaim" that they don't notice when one actually happens.

[Misère]

Because I think Dominator's behavior merits a lynch.

Would you tell someone to stop voting for me if you were confused by their reasons for doing so?

[Misère]

I would have wagoned it if I'd been in the game at that time at that time. I 100% think HS was right to push it. I *don't* think the evidence was conclusive, though, which is why I am scum reading you for being so final about it. I actually said to one of my neighbours that I think you've brought the whole thing up again just to try to discredit HS's push. So I'll put this out there - HS is my top town read and there's no way I'm voting there unless he does something ridiculously bad today.

I'm pretty sure HS is town too, and I don't understand how this would discredit HS' push.

I

am

bringing it up to try and convince you I'm town, because, well, I am.

[Misère]

My top townread is Dayne based on our neighborhood interactions. He was pressing me on my voting patterns in a way that seemed like a genuine effort to sort me.

I'd say Dayne and SlySly are strongly town, HS is probable town, and though I'm close to null on BTD and Shannon I'd rather wait and see what they do. This leaves BlackVoid, Dominator, and Dunnstral. I'd rather lynch Dominator since the other two are at least posting content and should become more sortable over time.

[Misère]

Do you really believe Dominator is viable for a lynch right now?

Yes. If nothing else he's the most viable choice in my lynch pool, given that the earlier JinVoid wagon has evaporated.

If you don't believe with BTD's logic, what logic have you used? In your iso you pointed out useless association talk and pretty much used the same logic BTD did.

I don't like BTD's undermining his own point by saying that Dominator's unhelpfulness is typical for him, while also saying it's scummy. If he had said it was anti-town and proposed a utility lynch, I wouldn't have a problem with it. If he had said it was scummy without also saying it was his typical behavior, I wouldn't have a problem with it.

I think a player as deliberately useless as Dominator has been has an above-default probability of being scum and, even if he is town, is about the most harmless mislynch we could make.

[Misère]

Dunn - Is my neighbour. First aboard the Jin wagon after Jin's slip, which earns points for me.

Dunnstral, is the slip why you voted Jin?

[Misère]

I was voting him before hs came out with the "slip" that nobody seems to care about anymore

This is the correct answer. (I expected that you would give the correct answer, but it didn't hurt to check.)

Shannon's lines of questioning are solid.

[Misère]

Sorry for the inactivity. I actually thought I had posted yesterday.

Why are you softly advocating we lynch someone who is null. We could go for someone who is actively scummy instead!

I gave my reasons for advocating a Dominator lynch and I think they were clear.

First-day lynches are actually less likely than random to hit scum, so I'd rather lynch a somewhat less scummy but totally unhelpful player over a hypothetical scummier one who is doing things that will eventually make him or her sortable.

[Misère]

prodge

Will post in a bit.

[Misère]

I'd actually still prefer an nn30 lynch to Dunnstral right now.

Re. nn30's arguments against me in 249:

Their 168 list reeks of faking content as does the attempt at naming scum teams in 153. I really like the observation in 167 but there's no attempt at follow-up made.

I don't like how 168 and 202 contradict one another. In 168 he says he wants to town read Black Void while in 202 has him, presumably, in the null pile.

I don't like how he continually circles back to discussing the RVS Jin wagon: 178,215, 216 and 223. Jin was run up druing RVS - continuing to try and make this the focus of our discussion is getting old. Feels like fake content.

The first paragraph is rather hand-wavey "I don't like this and that" pseudo-argument. He refers to my posts as fake content without saying what is fake about it, and critiques that after 167 "there was no attempt at follow-up made." In fact I did follow up that point in 215, as nn30 must surely know since he cites that post as well.

The second paragraph is an obvious misread of what I actually said in 168. It's clear from the context of that post that I was not saying "BlackVoid is probably town" but rather "BlackVoid's posts look towny to me

right now

." Here is the actual paragraph he references:

I was pretty sure [Jin was scum faking a dumb-town tell], but this is complicated by the fact that I want to townread BlackVoid. I'll need associatives to come to a decision on this.

There is nothing confusing about combining this with a null read on BlackVoid's slot.

The third paragraph is a poor argument from the start, made even poorer by the context of the posts he referenced: 216 and 223 are both clearly an attempt to read Dunn and clearly a response to something shannon posted.

Beyond that, nn30's 267 asks a question I've already answered.

I can understand why other players have found my tone unnatural and scummy, because my tone has in fact been fairly unnatural. Most of these players have just said, "Wow, Misère is really scummy," without seriously attempting to explain the read, and then followed up by reading just about everything I posted afterward in a confirmation-biased manner. This is what I would expect from town reading a player whose tone feels off. nn30, on the other hand, has assembled a collection of 'evidence' that is tenuous at best but happens to point to the least popular player. I find it hard to credit that the reasons he gives are ones that would actually lead a town player to independently form a scum read on me. It seems more likely that he is pushing on me because I am easy to push on, and generating reasons to match his foregone conclusion.

(I also dislike nn30's push on BTD6 because BTD6 is consistently an easy mislynch in his town games, but by that same reason I should expect to see town pushes on BTD6 for innocent behavior, so I don't actually take this as additional evidence against nn30.)

[Misère]

I was not deliberately trying to look scummy.

I

was

(and still am) deliberately altering my style, in a way that was obviously seen as suspiciously artificial.

[Misère]

I'm here. Not interested in a Dayne wagon, though.

I could do Dunnstral but lately I'm getting the sense that he is town. I will vote him under deadline duress. I still think nn30 is better but no one seems interested in my argument there.

[Misère]

I am a vanilla townie.

VOTE: Dunnstral

This is the only counterwagon with any hope at all.

[Misère]

VOTE: nn30

[Misère]

BV

I feel like a dick for saying it like this but please be more careful about what you post. In 115 you talked about BTD soft claiming cop and how he thought scum might not notice, which in retrospect might have drawn their attention to the claim Also, it's worth noting that both people you thought would be D2 'sortable' are now dead. What's your take on that?

This is a good catch. Do you find it suspicious? Because I find it suspicious.

VOTE: BlackVoid

I'll answer your questions to me separately.

[Misère]

Lazy-postingz as I've been busier than I anticipated.

I'll just assume my reasoning was.bad since everyone else thinks it was.

UNVOTE: BlackVoid

Hell if I have any other ideas, though.

[Misère]

I've been much busier than I expected to be lately. If that continues to be the case, I'll replace out.

I really have nothing to contribute right now. I still don't think HS is Mafia but I'm not sure why the continued push on me now. For that matter I don't

[Misère]

For that matter I don't

...finish my posts before fat-fingering Submit, apparently.

I was going to say I don't really understand what makes Dunn so sure I'm town now.

[Misère]

I'd like to nitpick an aspect of the case on SlySly.

Second - VOTE: Misere

This is l-1

Uh, I'll have some of what you're smoking, please.

I interpreted this as being about the fact that nn30's vote was actually L-3, not the legitimacy of the wagon, so this is not a reason to call him out for being "lightly dismissive."

It's worth noting that SlySly himself didn't see fit to point this out.

[Misère]

That hammer made me re-evaluate my townread on HS. I thought they were town because I liked the tone of their early play and particularly their early Jin case, but looking at it more carefully it becomes problematic. The idea that someone could be

so sure

someone else is scum, only to drop the case forever once it hits some resistance, seems distinctly un-towny.

Beyond that, there is the obvious hammer. Some people will say this is too dangerous to come from scum, but quickhammering from town is annoyingly common in the current meta and is rarely punished, so it's not really that dangerous in itself and by now I'm pretty sure good scum players have figured that out. This particular hammer, though, came with more than a week on the clock, without any statement of intent, and on a wagon that I don't think everyone on board was ready for a lynch.

Even under those conditions there are some particularly arrogant town players who will quickhammer because they are just

so certain of themselves

that they'll see this as a chance to show everyone else how right they are. But HS seems to not consider themselves good at Mafia, so I would expect more humility in their actions. It doesn't really add up.

[Misère]

Also, HS questioned my vote on BlackVoid in our neighborhood yesterday, but never responded when I asked what changed their mind on that slot (and had plenty of time to do so).

[Misère]

Shannon, I was going to say I

wasn't

dead set on HS, but then they posted.

this is 100% bullshit, i asked on the 3rd of February 'if they really believe BV is scum' and i never got a response. misere never posted in our neighborhood.

This is a direct lie. HS must think they can beat me in a 1v1. I hope they're wrong.

VOTE: Human Sequencer

[Misère]

HS, if you're town and you either didn't read my response to.you in the neighborhood or decided to lie about it, you're a worse player than you say you are.

[Misère]

Wow, who could have predicted BlackVoid was scum?