No Effort Mafia 2.1 (Game Over)

[zoraster]

6 scum isn't small

[McMenno]

for a 34 player game it is

[Gorkington]

mafia teams don't get stronger in a linear fashion when you add more players.

[Creature]

I said something that in a singleball game with a decent ammount of PRs, the rate is something like:

N=(M*4)+1
Where N is number of total players and M is number of mafia players.

2*4+1=9 (7:2)
3*4+1=13 (10:3)
4*4+1=17 (13:4)
5*4+1=21 (16:5)
6*4+1=25 (19:6)

34 > 25

7*4+1=29 (22:7)

34 > 29

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Awk....

[zoraster]

why is that the formula you're using? It leads to bad results.

[zoraster]

This is a much more accurate method for deciding on the power of scum: http://games-net.de/hosted/tggc/trash/m ... 0&do=Go%21

[Creature]

9 players games usually contain two scum.
13 players games usually contain three scum.
17 players games usually contain four scum.

And so on.

[MTD]

i don't think assuming linearity is realistic

[zoraster]

Each additional town does not increase power linearly. Think of it this way: every two town you add increases the number of mislynches by one. But those mislynches aren't created equal. Take a game with 9v2 and then add two town. The Day 1 lynch in the 9v2 scenario has an expected chance of lynching scum of ~18%. Add two town, and that additional mislynch only adds an additional chance of 15% to lynch scum. Which is why 2v9 has a 35% EV (in mountainous) but 2v11 only has a 39.5%. Now add two more (2v13), it only goes up to 43.01%, which is an increased chance of winning of 3.5% compared to the previous increase of 4.5%.

[Creature]

I'm assuming there are power roles around.

[Gorkington]

point still stands.
it doesnt increase linearly even with power roles.

[Shadoweh]

My new best friend Implosion says this con man is a con, seems legit

I didn't want to be the bearer of bad news but uhhhh your friend kind of murders people at night.

It meant we have something in common <3

[zoraster]

Night 5:

TheRealGin-N-Tonic the Vanilla Townie was killed

[zoraster]

Vote Count

Zoraster ( 0 )
gigabyteTroubadour ( 0 )
RadiantCowbells ( 4 ) gigabyteTroubadour MTD Bins beeboy
MTD ( 2 ) T-Bone implosion
T-Bone ( 0 )
Nahdia ( 0 )
Something_Smart ( 0 )
KuroiXHF ( 0 )
Bins ( 0 )
randomidget ( 0 )
Regfan ( 2 ) Fro99er Transcend
beeboy ( 1 ) RadiantCowbells
Equinox ( 2 ) randomidget The Bulge
Majiffy ( 0 )
Fro99er ( 2 ) Majiffy PenguinPower
implosion ( 1 ) KuroiXHF
Transcend ( 0 )
The Bulge ( 4 ) Zoraster Nahdia Something_Smart MCMenno
PenguinPower ( 0 )
MCMenno ( 2 ) Regfan Equinox
Total Votes ( 20 )

Mini Game Form

[zoraster]

Vote Count

Zoraster ( 0 )
gigabyteTroubadour ( 0 )
RadiantCowbells ( 1 ) PenguinPower
MTD ( 0 )
T-Bone ( 0 )
Nahdia ( 0 )
Something_Smart ( 1 ) Transcend
KuroiXHF ( 0 )
Bins ( 0 )
randomidget ( 0 )
Regfan ( 1 ) Equinox
beeboy ( 2 ) randomidget Fro99er
Equinox ( 0 )
Majiffy ( 0 )
Fro99er ( 3 ) gigabyteTroubadour beeboy implosion
implosion ( 3 ) MTD Bins Regfan
Transcend ( 0 )
The Bulge ( 4 ) RadiantCowbells T-Bone Nahdia Something_Smart
PenguinPower ( 5 ) Zoraster KuroiXHF Majiffy The Bulge MCMenno
MCMenno ( 0 )
Total Votes ( 20 )

Mini Game Form

[zoraster]

Vote Count

Zoraster ( 0 )
gigabyteTroubadour ( 0 )
RadiantCowbells ( 0 )
MTD ( 0 )
T-Bone ( 0 )
Nahdia ( 0 )
Something_Smart ( 0 )
KuroiXHF ( 0 )
Bins ( 0 )
randomidget ( 0 )
Regfan ( 0 )
beeboy ( 0 )
Equinox ( 1 ) implosion
Majiffy ( 1 ) Bins
Fro99er ( 3 ) Nahdia Majiffy Transcend
implosion ( 0 )
Transcend ( 0 )
The Bulge ( 3 ) T-Bone Something_Smart Regfan
PenguinPower ( 8 ) gigabyteTroubadour MTD KuroiXHF randomidget beeboy Fro99er The Bulge MCMenno
MCMenno ( 4 ) Zoraster RadiantCowbells Equinox PenguinPower
Total Votes ( 20 )

Mini Game Form

[zoraster]

Vote Count

Zoraster ( 0 )
gigabyteTroubadour ( 0 )
RadiantCowbells ( 0 )
MTD ( 0 )
T-Bone ( 0 )
Nahdia ( 0 )
Something_Smart ( 1 ) Transcend
KuroiXHF ( 0 )
Bins ( 0 )
randomidget ( 0 )
Regfan ( 4 ) Equinox Fro99er The Bulge PenguinPower
beeboy ( 0 )
Equinox ( 0 )
Majiffy ( 0 )
Fro99er ( 2 ) Bins implosion
implosion ( 3 ) MTD Regfan Majiffy
Transcend ( 0 )
The Bulge ( 6 ) gigabyteTroubadour T-Bone Nahdia Something_Smart KuroiXHF randomidget
PenguinPower ( 1 ) MCMenno
MCMenno ( 3 ) Zoraster RadiantCowbells beeboy
Total Votes ( 20 )

Mini Game Form

[zoraster]

Vote Count

Zoraster ( 1 ) beeboy
gigabyteTroubadour ( 0 )
RadiantCowbells ( 1 ) PenguinPower
MTD ( 0 )
T-Bone ( 0 )
Nahdia ( 0 )
Something_Smart ( 0 )
KuroiXHF ( 0 )
Bins ( 0 )
randomidget ( 0 )
Regfan ( 2 ) Equinox Transcend
beeboy ( 0 )
Equinox ( 1 ) KuroiXHF
Majiffy ( 0 )
Fro99er ( 0 )
implosion ( 0 )
Transcend ( 0 )
The Bulge ( 5 ) gigabyteTroubadour Something_Smart randomidget Regfan MCMenno
PenguinPower ( 8 ) Zoraster MTD T-Bone Nahdia Bins Majiffy Fro99er The Bulge
MCMenno ( 2 ) RadiantCowbells implosion
Total Votes ( 20 )

Mini Game Form

[zoraster]

Vote Count

Zoraster ( 0 )
gigabyteTroubadour ( 0 )
RadiantCowbells ( 0 )
MTD ( 0 )
T-Bone ( 0 )
Nahdia ( 0 )
Something_Smart ( 0 )
KuroiXHF ( 0 )
Bins ( 0 )
randomidget ( 0 )
Regfan ( 0 )
beeboy ( 0 )
Equinox ( 1 ) PenguinPower
Majiffy ( 0 )
Fro99er ( 3 ) KuroiXHF implosion MCMenno
implosion ( 0 )
Transcend ( 0 )
The Bulge ( 5 ) gigabyteTroubadour Something_Smart randomidget Regfan beeboy
PenguinPower ( 10 ) Zoraster RadiantCowbells MTD T-Bone Nahdia Bins Majiffy Fro99er Transcend The Bulge
MCMenno ( 1 ) Equinox
Total Votes ( 20 )

Mini Game Form

[zoraster]

Vote Count

Zoraster ( 0 )
gigabyteTroubadour ( 0 )
RadiantCowbells ( 0 )
MTD ( 0 )
T-Bone ( 0 )
Nahdia ( 0 )
Something_Smart ( 2 ) implosion PenguinPower
KuroiXHF ( 0 )
Bins ( 0 )
randomidget ( 0 )
Regfan ( 0 )
beeboy ( 0 )
Equinox ( 0 )
Majiffy ( 0 )
Fro99er ( 0 )
implosion ( 2 ) Majiffy Transcend
Transcend ( 0 )
The Bulge ( 5 ) gigabyteTroubadour MTD T-Bone Something_Smart Regfan
PenguinPower ( 10 ) Zoraster Nahdia KuroiXHF Bins randomidget beeboy Equinox Fro99er The Bulge MCMenno
MCMenno ( 1 ) RadiantCowbells
Total Votes ( 20 )

Mini Game Form

[zoraster]

Vote Count

Zoraster ( 0 )
gigabyteTroubadour ( 0 )
RadiantCowbells ( 0 )
MTD ( 0 )
T-Bone ( 0 )
Nahdia ( 0 )
Something_Smart ( 0 )
KuroiXHF ( 0 )
Bins ( 0 )
randomidget ( 0 )
Regfan ( 0 )
beeboy ( 0 )
Equinox ( 0 )
Majiffy ( 0 )
Fro99er ( 0 )
implosion ( 0 )
Transcend ( 0 )

The Bulge ( 17 ) Zoraster gigabyteTroubadour RadiantCowbells MTD T-Bone Nahdia Something_Smart KuroiXHF Bins randomidget Regfan Equinox Fro99er implosion Transcend PenguinPower MCMenno

PenguinPower ( 3 ) beeboy Majiffy The Bulge
MCMenno ( 0 )
Total Votes ( 20 )

Mini Game Form

Day 6:

The Bulge the Vanilla Townie was lynched

[ConnorJC]

6 scum isn't small

It is in this style of game
Scum likely has somewhere near a 30% chance to win

[MTD]

it's still penguinpower >.<

[zoraster]

It may be an accurate estimate of THIS particular game given how things fell, but I don't view it as particularly accurate from a design perspective.