Mini Normal 1874: Camping Trip Mafia (Game Over)

[Jaack]

Hey all. Looks like a short read so it shouldn't take me that long to catch up.

[Jaack]

Well I see that sick is effectively confirmed scum. In order for him not to be, fykus would have to be a scum pr and scum would have had to target my slot, the latter of which seems particularly unlikely.

I think there is exactly 1 scum in (sensfan; fykus). Fycus is scum if the scum team preplanned this fake claiming stuff to try and clear fykus (considering there were people doubting his claim this seems reasonable enough).

Sensfan is scum if sick just winged his claim. I don't see sensfan making a post like 659 if the plan was for sick to fakeclaim, but other than that, he's spent an inordinate amount of time diverting pressure from sick for being 'bad town' and doing little else.

Going to have to do some more isos before i endorse lynching this very second but sick is clearly the lynch for the day.

[Jaack]

Still catching up, a few more thoughts while I have the time.

IAI and massive are pretty much town.
I think Matt is town too, but I'm less sure there. I haven't seen anything I feel is likely to come from scum from him, but I still feel less strongly about him.
I wasn't in love with lil's posts, but bv is doing his normal 'I AM TOWN I AM TOWN' thing so that's probably town as well.
I have no clue about nadpool.
I totally get why people wagoned shannon and there's a decent chance she's scum, but I feel hesitant there for some reason. Going to review the wagon composition there.
I need to read the lucca/Jupiter slot more closely because I feel like I should have stronger feels there.

[Jaack]

Like, I understand why one of them is, but why both of them? What do you think the original plan was (assuming there was an original plan here)?

My guess as to the original plan was that they soft cc each other and hope that the lynch of one give town cred to the other. It's not a good plan, but it makes a bit of sense given how many people were doubting fykus' claim.

[Jaack]

@Jaack, I'm townreading IAI and Matt as well but I've been struggling to get a solid read on massive. What am I missing? Wouldn't mind hearing what your reservations with Matt are either. I'm not sure I follow your read on me. I'm town because I keep saying I'm town?

As far as massive goes, I've really liked a lot of his questions (63 is one example) I would like to see more conclusions from him, but I think the questions he's asking are heavily pointed towards gamesolving.

Matt''s more than likely town, but it's sort of a body of work type thing. He's posted quite a bit and none of it gave me scumfeels. That's good enough for a townread, but not good enough for a hard townread.

As for you, I had concerns with your predecessor but you look exceedingly town. Basically the same as my feelings about your slot from micro 661.

[Jaack]

VOTE COUNT 1.05

lucca261 (4): mattblackguy, Nadpool, shannon, Lil Uzi Vert
Sickofit1138 (3): I Am Innocent, TwoFace, Soulmil07
mattblackguy (2): ssbm_Kyouko, Sickofit1138
TwoFace (1): SensFan
shannon (1): massive
Fykus (1): lucca261
Nadpool (1): Fykus

Just looking at some votecounts and this one struck me as interesting. The lucca wagon kinda just appeared and disappeared within like two pages and was hardly ever discussed. Matt's the only one who offered any sort of reasons...

I'm not sure what I make of this. None of the confirmed towns nor my strongest townreads are on it, but neither are my strongest scumreads...

Taking note of this now to review later.

[Jaack]

I'm not sure yet. I thought it stood out, but it's difficult for me to formulate that in terms of dicerning people's alignment. I mostly wanted to make note of it to come back to it after some flips.

[Jaack]

Let's see if I can get this in before mod...

Can you explain the logic here? Not sure if i follow?

Sick's claim is pretty clearly bogus. If scum planned out this fakeclaim in advance (ie Night 1) I don't think that sensfan would put effort into defending him right before he claimed, as it would be putting effort into defending a parter that had already been predetermined to be sacrificed.

Of course, if the scumteam hadn't hammered out the details of the claim beforehand, I could pretty easily see sensfan doing what he did as scum.

[Jaack]

predetermined to be sacrificed

So you think the scum team's plan was to sacrifice Sick? What do they get out of sacrificing him? I don't think any scum would gain any towncred from Sick's lynch. Only person I can see who "could" get some towncred off of Sicks' lynch is Fykus.

That is the reason I gave in my intial post about the subject. The hope would be that fykus would get towncred for being cc'd by scum (or sick would get towncred for cc'ing scum). I'm not sure this is what happened but it's one of my leading theories. If it's false and fykus is really the JK, than sensfan is almost certainly scum. If fykus is scum, I don'tthink sensfan is too, but there's a little possibility I guess.

[Jaack]

Before we move forward I think we need Jupiter to claim.

[Jaack]

Ufff....

I'm pretty sure Jupiter is scum. His posts from the beginning of D2 really don't lead me to believe he had a role cop result on sick.

I believe Matt and I think that doc+jk makes more sense than doc+that JOAT thing

Will add more when I have the time but don't lynch fykus until I can explain more.

[Jaack]

Well BV basically just made a decent amount of my Jupiter scumcase for me.

Jupiter's actions D2 do not line up at all with someone with a roleblocker result on sick.

1. Roleblocker is much more commonly a scumrole than a town role. It makes no sense for Jupiter to rolecop sick because he was scumreading him and then go about calling him town after getting a highly incriminating result. 825 looks like justification made up after the fact. I don't see how calling someone town when you have ample hard evidence to believe is scum is going to be a good way to look for associatives at all.

2. Even if Jupiter decided to give sick the benefit of the doubt (see 825) then a push on fykus obviously should have followed (because JK and RB don't make much sense together on the same town team) But Jupiter pretty much avoids talking about fykus until sick's claim is shot to pieces.

3. The whole thing where Jupiter first tried to swing things over to sensfan before immediately switching back to sick just reads like scum who thought they had this brilliant idead and then realizing it was dumb.

4. 743 is kinda incriminating upon further review (I'm thinking fykus is town right now which I will get to later). It looks to me like Jupiter is trying to get fykus' list of targets so the scum team can avoid being blocked (which obviously failed)

5. Jupiter's hard townread of fykus makes absolutely no sense. The PR specs alone should be enough for Jupiter to doubt fykus. I mean Jupiter's shaded matt after his claim despite recently holding a pretty hard tr on him (679). Maybe Jupiter is doing this because they're scumbuddies but unless there's another PR claim I think that's unlikely. But the more I've thought about it, the more I realize that Jupiter needs fykus alive as long as possible to avoid getting lynched. I mean, if fykus gets lynched and flips town, Jupiter should and will be powerlynched the following day. Keeping fykus alive prevents that from happening. I feel like Jupiter is pushing for an easy mislynch outside the claims in order to survive an extra day (which is kinda making me think sensfan is town now, but I'm less sure of that).

6. The claim is just weird. I've never heard of the type of BP that Jupiter seems to be describing, and it doesn't seem like it would be under normal guidelines, but I'm not confident enough in this to say for certain. But the combination of powers Jupiter claims don't feel cohesive to me.

----
Now why is fykus town?

I'll admit, I'm not in love with a lot of his posts. And there's a solid chance he's scum.

But I don't get super strong feels that he was partners with sick and I don't get super strong feels that he's partnered with Jupiter either, who I'm pretty sure is scum no. 2.

And while it may seem a bit odd that he's survived two nights with his claim, at the same time, his claim was never taken for granted - he has remained rather lynchable throughout D2 and D3. Furthermore, it's possible he was the target N2 and blocked Jupiter's shot.

All in all I just feel a bit iffy about fykus while there is much more incriminating stuff regarding Jupiter. But even if I was 50/50 between them (I'm more like 75 Jupiter scum/15 Fykus scum/5 Both Scum) it makes more sense to lynch Jupiter. Fykus' claimed PR is much more valuable than whatever Jupiter claims to have left (whatever the weird BP is that probably doesn't exist, and even that could be gone if Fykus is in fact scum). And if Jupiter does flip town, it's incredibly easy just to lynch Fykus the next day.

TL;DR - Jupiter is more likely to be scum than fykus and also makes for a less bad mislynch than fykus if we do end up mislynching.

VOTE: JupiterCrush

[Jaack]

@BV -

The thing that puts me off from a fykus-sick pair is sick's lack of pushing on fykus despite cc'ing him. I don't get why sick as RB would cc his partner and then not try and push that lynch through for the towncred.

As far as fykus goes, yeah, avoiding the thread after sick's claim doesn't look good, but its not really that damning for me.

I haven't had the opportunity to review lucca since all this Jupiter stuff began, but I'll take a look...

131 - Lucca has strong scumreads on TwoFace and Matt, who were both pushing the sick wagon. Weak townread on sick. Lucca starts moving towards a sick scumread (190, 195) but never votes there, instead moving along to shannon.

Talks a lot about wanting a sick wagon after that but then as soot as matt votes sick to give that wagon traction (476), lucca abandons it and votes my slot out of the blue (482).

All in all a lot of distancing but whenever the sick wagon seems to matter Lucca is mysteriously not there.... I'm pretty comfortable in saying that this pair continues to make sense.

About this point - Jupiter was trying to keep Fykus alive even before he (Jupiter) claimed. Except before the claim, it wasn't a Jupiter/Fykus dichotomy at all so there's no reason for him as scum to try to keep Fykus alive.

On D2 it was a Fykus/Sick dichotomy instead. Again, I think Jupiter was trying to avoid the cc's to buy a partner a day. Same thing here.

[Jaack]

VOTE COUNT 1.05

lucca261 (4): mattblackguy, Nadpool, shannon, Lil Uzi Vert
Sickofit1138 (3): I Am Innocent, TwoFace, Soulmil07
mattblackguy (2): ssbm_Kyouko, Sickofit1138
TwoFace (1): SensFan
shannon (1): massive
Fykus (1): lucca261
Nadpool (1): Fykus

Just looking at some votecounts and this one struck me as interesting. The lucca wagon kinda just appeared and disappeared within like two pages and was hardly ever discussed. Matt's the only one who offered any sort of reasons...

I'm not sure what I make of this. None of the confirmed towns nor my strongest townreads are on it, but neither are my strongest scumreads...

Taking note of this now to review later.

I'm glad I quoted this or else I would have forgotten it.

Let's assume for a moment that fykus is scum and lucca/Jupiter is town. Here's a wagon on town with at least 3 town on it. The counterwagon is your scumbuddy roleblocker. To me that looks like a pretty solid opportunity, particularly for newbie scum.

Here's what fykus posted instead:

Page 6

@fykus, 138: I'll throw a question for you. What do you think of Matt saying that I'm pushing you both because you are the "weakest" players in the game.

I guess its plausible but probably unlikely. I'll withhold my judgement for now since you haven't posted much yet.

For now though, I'm going to put my vote on Nadpool since he has offered nothing but seemingly random votes so far this game.

VOTE: Nadpool

I feel like scumfykus would have voted lucca there.

That wagon's quick rise and fall makes a lot more sense if lucca/Jupiter is scum, as scum would be less willing to commit to and more willing to abandon such a wagon at this point.

I guess it still makes sense if both fykus and lucca/Jupiter are scum.

[Jaack]

@Jaack, so who do you think is partnered with Jupiter? Do you think there's merit to what I said about only me or IAI fitting in as a partner because if it was anyone else, they would have performed the kill instead of Jupiter doing it?

I don't see anything to rule out IAI as a choice, but at the same time, there's not really a smoking gun. I should note that it's possible that IAI was the nk choice as he has been widely townread and the only other option, fykus, was highly lynchable.

I think shannon makes a decent amount of sense. Moderately scummy on her own, was part of the first sick wagon D1, but not the second one, and only voted sick D2 after the lynch had pretty much been decided. With the lucca/jupiter slot, shannon was on that flashwagon D1, but joined and left without much of a word on the subject. It was actually shannon's vote that made me give that wagon a closer look initially, and it remains an odd vote.

@Matt - That seems like a reasonable enough narrative, but I still think that Jupiter is the superior lynch.

As far as I can see it, there are four possible things that can happen today:
1. We lynch Jupiter, Jupiter flips scum
2. We lynch Jupiter, Jupiter flips town
3. We lynch Fykus, Fykus flips scum
4. We lynch Fykus, Fykus flips town.

Since we have a flipped roleblocker, I'm going to assume that the remaining scum are all goons for the sake of this scenario work.

Scenario 1 is pretty awesome. We're down to one remaining scum, and we have a solid role like JK, which only improves when there's a single scum left.
Scenario 3 is also awesome, but an outted 1 shot BP that has to be activated is not particularly powerful. The best it can do is scare scum from shooting Jupiter until lylo, which is ok I guess, but not nearly as cool as a jk. I guess this one practically confirms IAI as town (I guess scum could have holstered, but that seems unlikely. The only other explination is that Matt saved IAI)
Scenario 2 and 4 are about equally bad. We waste a mislynch, Matt gets shot N3, lynch the other scum D4. If fykus was the scum, IAI dies N4, if Jupiter than idk) Either way, we're at 6 players with 2 chances to lynch 1 scum. Not great but still winnable. That being said I don't see much of a tangible difference between these scenarios.

If I were 50/50 on which one of fykus/jupiter was scum, I'd still support a Jupiter lynch, because it has higher upside. But I also think that Jupiter makes more sense as scum. If y'all decide that fykus is the better lynch, I'm not going to spend too much energy arguing against it - I'm not that confident in my reads. But Jupiter remains the far better lynch option.

[Jaack]

Agree with all that this was a pretty fun game.

But Jupiter's fakeclaim was not the best idea. One of the nice things about a vig shot is that it's self confirming. Fake claiming really opened you up to getting lynched when you never would have been lynched if you claimed vig.

[Jaack]

If anyone could give me some advice or commentary on my play itd be greatly appreciated

I think a big help would have been being more assertive. You're D1 wasn't that bad tbh (although I wasn't reading it in real time which changes perspectives) but you kind of felt a bit aimless.

As for D2 and D3, just being active almost certainly would have helped. I was pretty sure that Jupiter was scum over you, but at the end of the day, it was hard for me to say you were town - there was nothing for me to point to in your recent play.

[Jaack]

I find it interesting you thought fykus was town. I mean sure Jupiter played it kind of weird, but the night action debacle and lack of reaction form them towards the other just screamed scum.

Also had scum not killed me, I would have exposed fykus as scum cause I tracked him n1

It wasn't so much that I thought fykus was towny, but that I didn't think Jupiter's claim added up. It was a lot easier for me to assume tat Jupiter was scum and Fykus was just newbtown than it was for me to accept that a scum RB would essentially scumclaim to save their partner.