Mini 1891: Fat Boy Mafia [Over]

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hello.

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VOTE: Desperado

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@nexus

, you missed my vote in the VC (assuming there's no shenanigans).

Desperado remains an excellent vote.

pieg is town. Persivul is town. Wheme looks somewhat town, but not as town as I thought he likely would if he was town so we'll see. massive is likely town. Fire's decently likely town, his early tone felt off but i like his reads.

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do you have any reasons for any of these or?

Of course i do. I even listed one of them!

these kind of posts never bode well imo

???

I know you seem to not like giving reads but.

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yes
taking an explicit stance where others haven't
definitely a fencesit

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when I say i'm townreading him because i like his reads, I don't mean that I think they're high-quality reads, I mean that I think they're reads that are likely to have come from him as town. I also do think they're decent reads from the point of view of accuracy but that's not as much the point.

[implosion]

Fire's decently likely town,

preeeetty explicit

[implosion]

not strong, but you certainly haven't said anything stronger about him

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ex·plic·it
ikˈsplisit/Submit
adjective
1.
stated clearly and in detail, leaving no room for confusion or doubt.


again, it was not a strong stance, but it's not fencesitting. Fencesitting would be saying "I think he's town because X and i think he's scum because Y but on the whole I'm not sure" for an extended period of time.

Are you criticizing my read for being weak in confidence? because it's page 8 and not all of my reads are golden yet.

[implosion]

i did not say i was unsure on the whole.
and it was not for an extended period of time.
those are what fencesitting is. I really have no idea what you're saying right now.

Desperado, what do you think of me right now? Are you getting a scumread on me from this?

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I'm also happy to elaborate on the reads if you specifically want me to.

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I also tend to get lots of townreads early in general; I can point you to meta if you like.

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I could. I just chose not to.

pieg is town for a couple things; there's the entrance to the game/proper analysis of the RVS, for one. I assume their first post wasn't sarcastic, and was an actual early weak reads list, which seems to have been somewhat lost on you, and it was more or less what I'd have said at that point in the game. Their tone since then also feels generally unforced.
Persivul's grey vote is somewhat town (which is also part of why i'm townreading fb, the timing of his persivul townread and the fact that he's the first person to have taken that stance is good). His banter with grey over it cemented it more. He doesn't come off of that exchange as caring how he's perceived.
Wheme i'm townreading mostly off of gut on 73 and 77 which feel somewhat more like his towngame that i'm familiar with from like 2 marathon games than his scumgame. massive is also mostly a gutread/his play feeling vaguely reminiscent of what I remember of his towngame from a few years ago.

[implosion]

they are in fact townreads
i don't know what you mean by undercutting them; my pieg and persivul reads are actually decently strong, the point was that you sounded like you were expecting every read i give at this stage of the game to be strong which is absurd.

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As for desperado scum, he's decently town in this exchange (I'm not sure if I see him straight attacking me as scum here before seeing anyone else take a stance). His early game still looks bad. His RVS and second post are both really awkward and he calls the grey wagon boring to acknowledge it but explicitly doesn't take any stance on it. He generally did a lot of mentioning things that were happening without commenting either way in a way that felt like he was trying to look like he was doing things.

Curious what others think.

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I think you severely underestimate Persivul.

I think it's easy to rail against someone as scum on day one.

I'm not townreading him for railing against you, I'm townreading him because his vote on you makes more sense from town than from scum and in the subsequent exchange he comes off as not caring how he's perceived.

Is Persivul particularly known for scum play? I haven't played with him in memory.

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that makes more sense

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Re: pieg's early reads list. Note how all of the people who hadn't posted were lumped in the middle... they sorted everyone who had posted at that point, and it was the same way i'd lean for each person who had posted (except maybe pine). Desperado's reaction made it seem like pieg had completely arbitrarily listed people, which is clearly not true given that those who hadn't posted were in the middle. I also have no idea what he means by his "calling card."

Re: Wheme, I can't really describe my understanding of his style well; on a very vague level he seemed sort of like a generic new player to the site in the sense that he didn't really want to put him out there that much as scum, and straight asking people if they're scum feels sort of too overt of a thing for him to do as scum (I don't mean that in a too-scummy-to-be-scum way). It's not really that important; I suspect he'll make himself more readable in time. Again, it's not a strong read.

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188 I like this post. I agree with percivul and fire but why do you town read pieg's entry to the game? And that thing about being a double voter?

pieg's entry to the game is townish because they sorted people the same way i would have (which is very weak), combined with just the fact that they decided to sort everyone who had posted so early before anyone else had said anything which seems like it would be a bit atypical for scum. The doublevoter thing was more of a tonal read.

I can potentially see grey as scum entirely for his initial reaction to twoface's fos being entirely facetious but from what little I know about grey it might be something he'd do as town? I would be curious to hear more from twoface. idk about him right now. I had a feeling going into the game that he'd be one of the harder people to sort given a combination of the way he described his play and not knowing his meta and his meta seeming particularly important.

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pedit: then why are some people who haven't posted in the readlist while some people aren't? Desperado frequently uses that readlist. If you can't see that as RVS idk what to tell you. HE EVEN JOKES ABOUT IT IN HIS NEXT POST.

...because they forgot to list some people?

the important part is that everyone who had posted was listed either above the blob in the middle or below the blob in the middle.

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aaah. okay.

Well. it doesn't really matter. it's mostly irrelevant to my reads.

Persivul brings up a rather good point.

Unvote

VOTE: Pine

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@Nos, what's your read of me right now?

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more about what you found sketchy early WRT grey.

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bleh idfk

i had a vague hope of hopes that pine will stop bsing if he's under pressure. but /sigh. after thinking it's probably futile. it probably is just null but it just makes the game kind of shitty to have someone in a pseudo unreadable state. Or at least idk how to read alignment from what he's posted.

pieg, are you townreading pine just for the post restriction, or do you think his play is town beyond that? If the latter why?

You seem to be tryin real hard to reinforce this read on pieg so idk. I'd probably put you two as the same alignment in the sense that I'd go for a lynch on you if pieg fipped scum, but probably not if he flipped town. Why do you ask?

I find the way you're posturing around me and pieg interesting; you repeatedly called my read faulty yet had pieg shoulder the blame and it wasn't clear if you were saying that it was faulty in a scummy way. I'm not sure what to make of your pieg read being mostly based on pieg's reaction to my pieg read. The page 1 reads post was still real. Like, the only reason you've given for it to not be real is that it listed a bunch of people who hadn't posted... but those people were all lumped together in the middle of the list separated by blank lines from the people above and below them. Which I think pretty clearly says that the people above the blob look townier and the people below the blob look scummier and those in the blob are neutral bc they haven't posted. I'm not sure what's so difficult to understand about that.

The way you're criticizing my read while seemingly avoiding rhetoric aimed at me in favor of calling pieg scum, combined with what you gave as a read on me, feels like you're trying to stay on my good side while keeping me as a possible point of pressure if pieg flips town in the future.

FB is obvtown at this point. I feel like I'm vaguely coming around on twoface-town but don't really have a good reason for it.

Looking back over desperado again it feels like he's using his scumread on me as an excuse to not comment on anything not related to me. He hasn't' given any other reads other than a not-particularly-town implied read on wheme. I can see twoface's comment on the wagon being meh as potentially true (at least, pine and alz are decent scum candidates given that there's a good amount of the town to townread right now) but i don't see motivation for desperado-town to vanity vote me with comments like "i'll just see you hang" and then just keep that vote on me and not comment on anyone else when no one joins him. He's effectively posting a lot but doing nothing with his vote and taking almost no meaningful stances.

unvote

VOTE: desperado

pine if you're town can you please stop bsing

like after thinking about it there's really no reason to vote you right now because you would bs like this as either alignment just to fuck around but given what nexus said in the signup thread it's just an annoying layer of indirection.

[implosion]

So you're reading him as town partly because they have the same reads as you and partly because they were the first to post a reads list.
The first part is fine, but why would the point of time he posted it be alignment indicative? As for the doublevoter thing how is that a good tonal read.
That's what is weird for me, it was continued after the first VC and stopped only after it was pointed out as weird, as if trying to save face.

WRT timing: it just seems somewhat unlikely that scum would want to commit to 5 early reads, even if weak, before anyone else had really given anything concrete. Scum have incentive to wait because they can manipulate their reads to line up against potential mislynches. It's not an especially strong point on its own because obviously it's a very low amount of commitment.

WRT tonality: I see what you mean now - the tonal read is based on pretty much his posts from 15 to 27 (it's not just the doublevoter thing). It's just a generally carefree tone. The doublevote thing is silly but reads as unforced to me. They seem at ease. I can buy it looking awkward as reasonable but I don't agree.

You say that line of lynchability reads list is irrelevant but two posts above you just said that it's partly why he's TR by you-'cause you'd lean on them the same way and and that he made one early is a town read for you

I meant that the meaning of posts 12 and 14 (which I had missed) was irrelevant.

Okay, why do YOU think that reads list is real? Other than the fact that everyone is there on it? What do you think having reads on anyone when we were still in RVS is towny?

Well, we now

know

that it was real (or at least, that pieg intended it to be an actual reads list and not a completely arbitrarily ordering of players) because pieg confirmed as much.
I thought it was real at the time because it aligned with what I thought (which meant it was unlikely to be arbitrary), and because, like i've repeated many times now, it clearly sorted people into three groups (above blob, blob, below blob).
I explained why early reads in general are a nominal towntell in the first reply in this post but there also is just a gut impression of genuineness in this case in particular; the reads look like they weren't made up, i.e. were actual genuine reads of people, etc. It's not super complicated. My townread on pieg is from a combination of small things that all look natural/not manufactured/town-motivated. Generally making an early commitment to start sorting people as quickly as possible should be townish for fairly obvious reasons i think.

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and WRT Nos I think his rhetoric towards me is somewhat sketchy. I do have somewhat of a gut reaction that this doesn't feel like what i remember of his scumgame but i think that's just because he's posting here and i think he lurked and then replaced out of the game that i'm remembering that he was scum in. The way he's posturing on pieg but not me feels somewhat off, like I mentioned in 321. He's a good candidate for scum.

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Lazy day but this needs response:

Looking back over desperado again it feels like he's using his scumread on me as an excuse to not comment on anything not related to me. He hasn't' given any other reads other than a not-particularly-town implied read on wheme. I can see twoface's comment on the wagon being meh as potentially true (at least, pine and alz are decent scum candidates given that there's a good amount of the town to townread right now) but i don't see motivation for desperado-town to vanity vote me with comments like "i'll just see you hang" and then just keep that vote on me and not comment on anyone else when no one joins him. He's effectively posting a lot but doing nothing with his vote and taking almost no meaningful stances.

"he's using his scumread on me to not comment on anything else except persivul, wheme, pieg, and grey"

1) i mentioned that you talked about wheme,
2) you've definitely talked about or with those people but you haven't given

any

inclination of your reads on anyone in this game other than me and wheme. You went back and forth with grey and you've mentioned some things about persivul and pieg (all of which

were in the context of you talking about me

), but none of it had any substance. You haven't given an inkling of what you think about anyone but me and nominally wheme. And you

still

haven't since i called you out on it. You're just responding to the first sentence of my post and not reading the rest of it as far as I can tell.

Yes, you've commented on other things but it's pretty clear from the context of the rest of the post that my problem isn't that you're literally not mentioning other players, it's that you're not giving any reads or meaningful opinions.

[implosion]

it's almost like...my reads are still developing

O_O

This was all well and good 10 pages ago.

The game is now in full thrust; if you're town you should have more reads than a concrete read on me and a less concrete read on wheme. Or at least you should be willing to discuss what reads of yours are developing. You're just being stubborn here and I don't see any reason for you to be stubborn about discussing your reads or their development as town.

are you ever going to talk about your experience with wheme or has that ship sailed?

It has, in fact, already sailed.
Remind me which of us isn't reading?

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and this is why desperado is a townread.

elaborate pls. While I agree with the two posts I assume you're referencing I don't get town strongly from them, maybe weakly.

Not sure on prana based on that post. It's an okay wagon but not stellar. His earlier selfvote is pretty meh as far as selfvotes I've seen go, and I certainly want to hear more reasoning behind his most recent post but the wagon doesn't really excite me as of now. More interested in desperado or maybe nosferatu as scum. I'd also probably join a pine wagon.

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@alz you should mention names in your posts, they're a lot harder to read/follow especially at a glance when you're just listing numbers.

I don't know what to make of persivul. His recent play is very opaque. I dislike the degree to which he's focused towards firebringer, and some of his posts towards him have felt viscerally scummy but I can't really justify why. Like 496. Just a really... idk, weird response. Not really productive, not relevant to the game, idk. And the way he talked about how he wouldn't push an easy mislynch as scum. I think he's telling the truth but it feels off. It feels like he's being too dismissive and that he's focusing his attention in fb's direction to the detriment of other directions (similar to what I criticized desperado of, but he is doing other things). I still think his early play reads gut town even taking experience into consideration (it's certainly fakeable but i think it's a little more likely not to be faked).

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fire I still want you to elaborate on desperado-town.

VOTE: Nos

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I'm specifically curious what you saw in 452/454 since you implied that you found them especially townish. It's certainly a stance I agree with but I don't see what's especially townish about taking it.

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(that is, the stance desperado gives in those posts is a stance i agree with)

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You don't know what to make of me...yet you speak of me in the third person instead of trying to interact. I don't know what to think of fire, so I interact with him...and you criticize that. Can't say that I agree with your approach.

Okay then.

How has your read on fire developed as a result of your interactions with him?

---

Twoface is more town than before.

@Desperado, why wheme?

Grey's push towards twoface before leaving is actually incredibly deeply trash but i have no idea if it's scum-indicative trash. I could buy it as such but it sounds like what grey described of his town meta so i guess i'm just glad he's been replaced? I really just have no idea how to read him. Not that it matters anymore. Twoface continues to drift towards obvtown though so that's good.

[implosion]

The wagon on nos is a thing for various reasons maybe? My main reason for scumreading him atm is in 321 but I probably owe it an ISO at this point to recalibrate.
The wagon on pieg is a thing because pieg made a reads list in RVS and people didn't believe it was real? It's still a bad wagon.

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I think my town set right now is {fire, pieg, twoface, alz, wheme, massive} right now.
I'm only actually confident on the first three though. Alz is a gutread that I need to substantiate more, Wheme is leftover from earlier and is somewhat fading as he continues to post mostly vapid content, and massive is weak because of volume but I think what he's posted so far does read town.
Leaves desperado, nosferatu, persivul, alisae, pine, prana.

[implosion]

A couple of alisae's posts so far ping me as well. The accusation of massive being manipulative feels somewhat testing-the-waters-y. The other one is 667. It reads vaguely like wanting to be on fb's good side/trying to cover up what could be perceived as a scum mistake.

[implosion]

it's not the brute fact of you townreading him. It's the timing and the tone of the post that read like you're townreading him because it's useful for you to do so, and like you're trying to back-justify why you acted in a way that assumed he was town without having said or implied that you thought he was town (note that I don't really find that in and of itself scummy, but your post makes it look like you may be afraid of being perceived as scummy for it).

[implosion]

i've made some good cases on d1 before.

this day is really stagnating though as people have mentioned. I don't really like wheme as the wagon to break that though.

@alz, i switched from desperado to nos because of the possibility of a wagon but the nos scumread is because of a couple things i've mentioned earlier. The pieg read flip is pretty off. Or well, the earlier pieg read based on page 1 in general, thinking more about it. Basing a read off of something so easily disprovable isn't a town tactic. I imagine if nos is town then they just had a misunderstanding but idk, it seemed straightforward to me. And i explained it like 4 times. Looks like just an easy thing to latch on to that was then harder to keep latching on to when it became obvious that it wasn't true.

I once again am wavering into the realm of mixed opinions on desperado.

[implosion]

I can see the argument for wheme scum at this point. His last couple pages aren't pretty. I'm not convinced that they're scum-motivated, though.

I agree he needs to give reads and scumhunt. But I read his frustration as genuine. It could be genuine as scum though. It's possible he sees the argument about his meta being set in stone through the lens of him feeling like scum-caught-for-the-wrong-reasons. Idk, i feel like after this much pressure from people to give reads he would as scum based on what I know of him at least as a relatively new player. I don't think he'd be this confrontational/acting like he has the moral high ground as scum, i think he would look more appease-y. I'd vote him over pieg if it comes down to that. I really would prefer the lynch land on someone not in my town reads but i don't really feel confident enough in any of my scumreads right now to push them hard. Nos would be the only one really and even that's not that great of a scumread and I think i've argued pretty much every beef I have about him.

Would also be nice if darklyn did anything at all before the day ends since the prana wagon sort of spontaneously appeared then spontaneously disintegrated and now we're left with a slot that more or less lurked through the first half of the day and has made three contentless posts since being replaced. That slot and pine are both mostly unreadable for me right now. I don't understand the strong townreads on pine. I can understand justifying a read from what he's posted but i don't see strong town. I think pieg mentioned that read? I'd be curious for a justification of that. Which was probably already made at some point but etc.

I'm less concerned about twoface's replacement.

[implosion]

he gave perhaps the least controversial read that can possibly be given, namely null-town on you. Which, yeah, is pretty scummy. Unless i'm missing something else. He mentioned a reads list but i'm not sure what he was referring to.

783, 789, 792 look like genuine frustration to me. Frustration might be a bad description; maybe claiming of the moral high ground? Idk. Thinking about it more i might just be looking at his iso cloudedly because i thought he was town earlier and i came into this game thinking he'd likely be a free read.

i'll look at him more closely tomorrow. prooobably.

[implosion]

That selfvote is pretty shit. I think the odds that it's an intentional ploy are probably really really low, which leaves that he's scum giving up which is no more particularly likely than that he's town giving up. Which isn't to say that he's town, just to say that he's a mediocre lynch. At least from a hitting scum perspective. The only real explicit scum motivation for that vote is if he's trying to garner towncred and it + the rest of his iso really does not scream to me that he's the kind of player to do that.

I agree with pieg that pine's vote is pretty bad. Alisae's is also but not as much. I can see the visceral this-is-obvscum vote a minute after the selfvote as coming from town. Pine calling him newbie scum is just so 1-dimensional of an approach to the game. I'd like pine to clarify whether he thinks darklyn is newbie scum giving up and why that's more likely than newbie town giving up (really i'd just like him to cut the bullshit and use words but sigh).

[implosion]

these wagons are really interesting though. The game has devolved into 9 out of 13 votes on wheme and darklyn and i'm really skeptical of that because they're both incredibly easy mislynches if they're town. And because I don't buy the cases on either of them. Well I can see where the wheme one is coming from but i still don't buy it really. I don't see him defending darklyn here as scum unless they're both scum which is possible but -shrug-.

[implosion]

(btw,

@nexus

, you listed pine as voting for two people)

fixed~

[implosion]

Okay, I dunno, I'm kinda confused now. Implosion and Fire are town for me. I'm not really sure about desperado and twoface. Null to town I would say with some weird posts in between.

Pieg I was and still am reading as scum. Nos seems scummy weird as well with the 180 and his explanation for it. Wheme off late seems weird. Persivul seems okay but I did read him as weird at a point-I'm not sure now. Massive seems okay, dunno what to make of pine. Alisae seemed weird at the begining but her last reads list was okay but I did read grey as scummy with that interaction so not sure. Darklyn hasn't said anything, neither did prana except for that one weird reads list post.

yeah okay i'm willing to vote alz. This post is terrible. He describes things as weird six fucking times. If he's town he should be a lot more clear with his stances than this, it reads like he's trying to look like committing to a bunch of reads (which, pieg is right, are pretty coincidentally incident to majority opinion) without actually giving any degree of nuance or analysis or like. idk. this is just so bleh. pieg/nos as scum, me/fire town, and most of the rest of the player list as either "idk" or varying qualifiers of weird. That's like the easiest reads list in the world to give as scum.

[implosion]

VOTE: Alz
darklyn should go back to this as well
i'd also like alisae to justify why he thinks the frustration from darklyn is more likely to come from scum but i'm more interested in what pine has to say.

[implosion]

Can't really figure out where my gut alz townread was coming from anymore. Didn't read that much because i'm tired though.

[implosion]

Implosion, why do you town read Dark? I don't see a reason.

I don't (and I'd prefer his lynch over whemes if it comes down to it) but I think the latter half of the wagon on him is bad. I didn't mind the first half as a pressure wagon but he hasn't done anything particularly scum indicative so I'd much rather lynch someone who I think is readable right now and sort him later.

[implosion]

Except in practice, all of those things can be indicative of new town caught out of their depth as well. The fact that he replaced in is a decent point though him replacing in doesn't necessarily imply that he specifically had a high desire to play this game. If he's not going to do anything then I would certainly agree that he should replace out.

[implosion]

I am distinctly uninterested in gin-scum. Twoface was super town right before replacing out and imo gin's argumentation about himself reads as pretty genuine from the small amount that i skimmed it before deciding it wasn't worth it because he's town.

[implosion]

VOTE: Alz

that one post I mentioned is still really bad and he disappeared right as he went under a ton of pressure, said he'd respond to what he could while on mobile and then didn't post for the rest of the day.

wheme's opening today looks really town to me.

[implosion]

i'm inclined to look in {alz, nos, momo} today.

Desperado has been inching further town for a long time. Most of persivul's interactions towards pine I can see either way but i think his initial vote is likely not scum->scum; given that pine was scum faking a post restriction (i assume? since he flipped goon) it seems not prudent as scum to bring up what nexus said in the signup thread that would likely never have been mentioned by anyone else and which basically implied that the restriction was faked. Especially if he's never played with pine before, unless he literally just saw it as pine being dead weight to bus but that seems relatively unlikely.

It will take a lot to sway me on firebringer or gin town. Pieg i could see but not really interested in pursuing atm. Wheme is probably weaker of a townread than those three but i think i've made my opinion on him clear.

[implosion]

Fire, what's your take on alz right now?

[implosion]

i may have phrased that poorly, you two are my strongest townreads.

[implosion]

I'm finding it kind of hard to stay motivated between all the replacements and the several pages of mostly fluffposting between people i'm townreading and the fact that aj and momo are both not engaging in the game yet. I'll try to explain why fire is town after work.

[implosion]

pedit cuz he hasn't mentioned pine once and then randomly votes him

Yes. Persivul pointed out that the mod guaranteed no shenanigans and that basically guaranteed that Pine was bsing, which I figured was worth putting pressure on to see how he'd respond if not worth just outright lynching. It's frankly strange that no one else seemed to notice that point or put any stock in it, even if most people thought the restriction was null. (side note, this might be an important point wrt nos, since nos was one of the people most adamant/willing to strongly push the narrative that the restriction was NAI? not sure how it makes me feel though)

He then kept faking the restriction, no one joined the wagon after me and it became clear that there wasn't going to be enough pressure to see if he'd drop the act under it, and I thought about it more and realized that people were probably right that it wasn't especially alignment indicative on its own.

Still super annoying though.

---

I don't think persivul's play towards pine feels like a bus. Beyond the pointing out the no shenanigans thing, I think if he's scum he'd commit more to a bus than voting him, looking at other people and eventually leaving it at "I still want to but no one will wagon with me." If pers-scum was bussing pine it was probably because he thought pine was useless, and if he was bussing because he thought pine was useless i think he'd bus harder than he did and push pine for longer. The bigger reason is the pointing out the no shenanigans thing though.

Firebringer's play just doesn't ring a bell from what I recall of his scum play. He's too earnest, he looks like he's trying to solve the game a lot more, and he doesn't seem concerned enough with his image (this isn't just because of the way he's responding to pressure either, he just seems more at-ease than I think i'd expect from scum-FB IME).

At first I was going to say Nos's alz vote at the start of the day might mean they weren't scum together but then he switched to voting fire after getting literally nothing out of the alz vote and with aj not having done anything yet which is just so opportunistic, especially if they're both scum. Which is probably my best guess at this point (still have a lingering weak townread on momo from massive but only weakly, and I really don't think anyone else is scum).

[implosion]

@momo:

Why do you highly scumread wheme?
What do you think of Nosferatu?
What do you think of Aj/Alz?
Do you have any particular townreads?

[implosion]

@momo:

@momo:

Why do you highly scumread wheme?
What do you think of Nosferatu?
What do you think of Aj/Alz?
Do you have any particular townreads?

[implosion]

I think nos is a better lynch than aj or momo at this point.

Aj's first points on Nos are generally good. The deal with pieg's early reads list still feels sour. I'm not really sure how it makes me feel about aj but he's reminding me of many of the reasons that Nos was scummy to me. The biggest thing I felt scummy about alz was that one post and I'm never going to get a good dialogue with alz on him so i'm not really sure how much to weight it. It's something that I think I could dig into and get more info out of if I could talk to alz more but ~sigh~. As it is it doesn't necessarily stand that strongly on its own.

Nos's reads have flitted about in a way that really doesn't look like how reads naturally evolve. If nos is claiming that they didn't scumread alz with the original posting on him then the vote on d2 basically came out of nowhere and it's sort of strange in and of itself for a read to evolve from dislike to scumreading in the span of the rest of the day where his vote was resting on wheme and they haven't really said anything meaningful about wheme so far today? They voted alz at daystart and then jumped on fire when he was fluffposting but hasn't mentioned wheme who they made this big 180 on that they emphasized and explained the justificaiton for.

It just feels like nos doesn't actually have a consistent real view of the game that they're going off of. It feels like there's relatively little permanence to things that they're claiming they think, and everything is justified after the fact so they can come up with any justification pretty much.

momo is obviously playing like shit. I sort of waver between trepidation because he's yet another "easy lynch" that scum will want to push because they can get away with it easily, and wanting to say that there have been so many players in this game that qualify for that moniker that it's mostly meaningless now. I don't have a solid read on the slot in isolation.

Unvote

VOTE: Nosferatu

[implosion]

Aj, do you have any solid reads other than on Nos?

[implosion]

this push on nos is pretty blatantly scum motivated and the only thing that people are pushing him for is playing transparently clunkily which is not a thing that scum!nos does?

Okay, first, wtf? this is not the only thing that people are pushing him for. Second it's a horrid strawman of one of the things that people are pushing him for. Third, how much meta do you have with nos?

This is like 2nd or 3rd person just saying that Momo is playing like shit.....

wtf is going on here?

He asked if anyone had any questions. I asked him questions in literally the most hard-to-miss way possible (in their own post with his name at the top). He missed them.

He's pretty clearly not reading the game, which is frustrating.

If you had questions about the 180, why didn't you take the initiative and ask for it?

There's a reason I read ISOs. I don't always notice or ascribe significance to things that are worth ascribing significance to the first time I read them - for instance the alz post that I mentioned i really don't like.

and for the second time, I didn't scum read Alz cause I didn't like him.

I pretty explicitly didn't say this?

[implosion]

Will explain first one more later on not phone.
Second one, a those are different and b it's about a pattern. You've made so many unjustified jumps that I have difficulty believing that they had a consistent process of scumhunting behind them. It's not about one case of doing something then later explaining why.

[implosion]

First thing thinking more about it is probably not very significant. The bigger point there is that you have managed to

still

not justify your vote or fos on alz, despite talking extensively about what wasn't justifying it. Unless I've missed something but it looks like you just keep talking about what wasn't the justification for it rather than what was.

a. How are they different? Why should I justify something that you obviously didn't care about until someone else brought it up?

Being transparent with at least

some

of your motivations as town is beneficial because it lets others follow your thought process and figure out if you believe the things that you believe for genuine reasons. Me assigning importance after the fact is because I'm not perfect; I miss things and I change my mind sometimes. Comparing the process by which I assess others' play to how you make pushes and state your reads in general is a a non-comparison. The problem isn't that there are some things you didn't justify, I'm willing to accept that, it's that there are so many things you've done like your hop from wheme to alz and from alz to fb that look like they don't have any actual train of thought behind them because you're justifying all of the reasons after the fact and those reasons are sometimes essentially the most basic reason possible (i.e., jumping on fb because you disliked the fact that he was spamming). I don't believe that you have an actual process behind the reads that you're giving; you're keeping your options open and jumping on whatever flavor of the month there is.

I still want to know why you voted alz in the first place, and why you dropped your suspicion of wheme, and why the reasons you fossed alz were worth just dropping wheme, why you thought pressure on fb was worth jumping off of alz. Your play just makes no sense and you can give whatever justifications you want because you've been so opaque. I don't remember your play from any games with you that have gone beyond day one but I just can't see genuine scumhunting behind what you're doing.

b. I still don't see how you don't get it. If anyone, had asked me why I did something, I would've said so. But you didn't. So why do you think it's scummy that I explain something when you ask for it?

I guess this is fair, but (a) the fact remains that I just cannot see your line of thought in this game if you're town and that your jumps are very convenient as scum and (b) there are other reasons that I think you're scum (the early pieg thing, and the more I think about your reaction to the pine PR the more it feels faked).

[implosion]

i just don't see anything that makes me not want to lynch nos
they're continuing to vacillate between basically every person who's easy to vote, still without any transparency or any seeming attempt to be solving the game, and the only reasoning i've heard for them being town is "the case is dumb and nos doesn't do this as scum" which is not reasoning

i think it's possible that one of my townreads is wrong at this point because everyone seems so happy to arbitrarily vote momo at arbitrary times and i don't know how i feel about an aj/nos team but can we please lynch nos i really feel like between the way they're playing and the way that the wagon never seems to get any momentum and if it does something else always pops up like immediately it's a scum slot. the game state just makes so much sense if nos is scum.

[implosion]

i'm willing to settle for a momo lynch but it feels similar to the darklyn wagon or how i used to feel about the wheme wagon in that there's not a whole lot of reason to think that the slot is scum imo. and i really want nos dead.

[implosion]

momo while you're here do you want to answer the questions that i asked you when you asked if anyone had questions for you thanks

[implosion]

It's possible pieg is scum but i haven't seen anything that makes me feel that way and i've seen plenty that doesn't.

i'm pretty unmotivated because no one has still given anything that i feel even accurately addresses the points that have been made against nos by me and by aj and i've yet to see anything from nos that makes me think town when looked at under scrutiny. the only point that even vaguely meant anything was pieg weakly mentioning meta but she never substantiated it at all.

the momo wagon just feels like a distraction and i would like happily jump on it if i wasn't more and more sure nos is scum and it feels like it. Nos/momo is possible but is probably too straightforward/not sure if it fits the dynamics that this day has had.

[implosion]

this talk of wheme is uninteresting because he's town for a lot of reasons already but i can see it as another point in favor of it. I don't think it's iron clad but etc

[implosion]

he's l-1, right?

[implosion]

meta by nature demands that you subvert it or it becomes a trust tell

i mean, if it becomes well known that pine never busses, and you push this narrative as iron clad, then pine will one day get a free win by bussing as scum in a game where you're town and riding your townread on him.

i doubt that's this game but i already think wheme's town so again etc.

[implosion]

tbf gin did say the read on you based on it was less conftown, right?

[implosion]

how

[implosion]

oh by hammering? eh

[implosion]

honestly it is probably best for this game if i do hammer. though i want to give momo a chance to claim, but he probably won't even see the request for a claim and discourse at this point is essentially pointless.

/sigh.

[implosion]

Edos if you want to hear my particular biased view of things I'm all mouths.

Gin is town for many, many reasons. I understand scumreading wheme but I am pretty sure it's wrong and am happy to justify/look into him more but I really don't think he's scum.

I think my pieg townread slowly deteriorated yesterday to some extent. I still think the slot is town. But it wouldn't really surprise me that much if i'm wrong here. I need to look back and see if I'm just reading a playstyle essentially. Hopefully edos will be like a gin replacement rather than a momo replacement.

Desperado wins the award right now for most likely person to come up as unexpected scum? I think he's been acting very town and since my spat with him early d1 i feel like he's been trying to solve the game and looking at things in a very progressive way. I haven't seen any specific thing from him that I can remember jumping out at me as "that's not scum." I doubt he's scum. No one else seems to have any suspicion towards him or me so the firebringer kill is a little weird? I mean fmpov it kind of sucks because he was my other really strong townread but he did have a fair amount of pressure on him. It's conceivably possible that edos mentioning the firebringer claim means that he saw the claim as scum and thought it was serious. I don't think he'd have said as much in thread but it's possible if edos thought that other people also took the claim seriously? This is a tangent though. Desperado is probably town.

Persivul is still town for pointing out the pine thing. His play yesterday feels generally logical but logical isn't a tell. There was the outing the fake hammer thing but he brings up a good point that it's pointless in this specific situation. His dialogue about wheme is another good example of him being logical in a way that i have a hard time really looking into. But I really, really think the pointing out the mod's post in the setup thread and the way that he played it subsequently with respect to pine is town. I don't see scum-persivul going out of his way to point out something that more or less confirmed pine was lying when he didn't have any way of knowing how people would respond. I don't see him pushing it in the way he did either. I think he'd either try to get more out of it or just not do it at all. It just doesn't make sense as a s->s interaction.

Aj is probably not scum with nos because i don't think he's bussing but is a decent candidate if i'm wrong about nos. I still have residual feelings about the slot because of alz but i'm not nearly as confident about those tells as I am about nos.

Nos is still scum and I think I've elaborated on this enough.

So what this all boils down to is that I'm wrong about something. I'm probably wrong about either edos/pieg, desperado, or persivul. And if I had to take a guess at this moment I'd say edos, but very weakly. I guess I have to view the game as {nos/aj} + {edos/desp/pers(/wheme?)} but i really don't feel great about abandoning any of those townreads.

I need someone to convince me i'm wrong about something. It's also of course conceivable that i'm wrong about {nos/aj} containing a scum. If nos is town then aj is the next most likely person to be scum but i really, really think nos is scum.

But I don't think I'll really be able to think that effectively further without a nos flip.

VOTE: Nos

[implosion]

Alright yall. I didnt read the thread other than the last couple pages of D2 and Nexus' posts. You're never going to convince me to thoroughly read 86 pages. Where should I start reading, and what do I need to know?

Hey yall. Busy today, but I'll read through the thread tomorrow.

What changed your mind? Or are you just planning to read through the thread un-thoroughly?

[implosion]

waitin for that great fantastic analysis from edos and pers and friends.

[implosion]

Hi implosion. Want to talk to me for a bit?

Happy to if you're on at the same time as me later. Went to sleep right after making that post. Gonna take quite a bit to convince me on gin, he's pretty much the one read I'm confident in relative to others.

Pers's 2181 is an interesting point. The stated strength of pieg's townread is weird in retrospect, even if it might have been sarcastic. The development of her read over the day after that is also interesting. She called pine town for the first 900 posts and then suddenly flipped on him in 942. She has pine as 3rd-4th scumread in 1049, clarified to 4th in 1059, right before day end. Nos is 2nd and alz is 1st so it's somewhat unlikely edos+nos or edos+aj unless nancy is known to bus. I guess it's possible that she felt the need to bus pine after the post restriction kept going on and she thought he was dead weight, but it seems somewhat unlikely she'd bus her other partner at that point.

Needs more thought.

[implosion]

the better question is, does nos look like he has a scumdriven agenda?

him not townreading implosion is a pretty good counterargument to that idea

I don't see how him townreading me would be scumdriven. Do you think he'd be trying to appease me? I've been pushing his slot since like mid d1 and I don't think I'd appear to scum-nos to be particularly likely to change especially after I said I basically can't move my thoughts forward until he's dead.

[implosion]

I mean, if he like attacked me then maybe. But saying he neither townreads nor scumreads me is not a hard stance to take as scum.

[implosion]

I'm not especially convinced that the darklyn lynch is likely to have a higher amount of scum. There were tons of wagons (especially the wheme wagon assuming he's town) that scum could hide on there; like half of the slots in the game were acting really surface-level scummy around that time so I really don't think scum would be specifically inclined to hop on the darklyn wagon (even if wheme is scum, pieg and aj both also had wagons at that point).

If wheme is scum then honestly pretty much anyone makes sense as a partner based on the end of d1 vc. Or at least it doesn't look especially strange under the assumption of anyone being scum with him.

[implosion]

it's a pointless one tho

he isn't keeping you lynchable but not giving you a read either way

what scum agenda is nullreading you when you're town or everyone else serving?

I mean

it doesn't have to have a very specific end goal in mind, but to name a few that are possible...

-avoids accusations of buddying me to try to get him off his back while also avoiding accusations of trying to turn on me for self-preservation
-he might feel like it looks the most natural and is doing it just because he thinks he can make it more convincing than a scumread or a townread on me
-he might just not be able to come up with any reasons that he thinks sound convincing

like, not every action that a mafioso takes has to have a specific high-level intent behind it. Sometimes scum just do things because it's the most natural thing for their town-persona to do. Nos hadn't stated any read on me up to that point. Why would he state another read on me and give more fuel to the argument that he's been pulling reads out of his ass all game?

I don't think it's especially scummy that nos nullread me, in a vacuum. I don't think it's really a tell.

[implosion]

I also don't get what pers means with 2218.

I want someone scumreading pers to walk me through why he brings up the point he did in 226. What is the scum motivation behind making that post? I really don't see any given how he played the rest of d1.

[implosion]

i also still just feel really terrible about any lynch that isn't nos right now. If we mess up tomorrow is mylo, and i can't see myself not voting nos if that happens. And I don't have any confidence in anyone that isn't nos.

Persivul's play looks weird to me a lot of the time, and a lot of the things he's said are difficult for me to evaluate with a high degree of confidence in terms of what they mean about his alignment but i haven't seen anything from him that particularly made me think he's scum and his d1 interactions with pine are town.

[implosion]

Pretty sure we massclaim today.

I believe this claim.

Why specifically?

[implosion]

I'm a JOAT. 1 shot each of tracker, rolecop, and doctor. Flavor is KFC's Zinger Burger. I tracked edos last night because i didn't think the end of the day made much sense with persivul+nos and persivul's play towards edos near the end of the day looked scum->scum to me. I considered aj but i thought his last post of the day was really unlikely from scum with persivul (I think he'd probably have acknowledge the persivul wagon/tried to get some towncred from persivul going down).

n1 i rolecopped massive because he was middling in my reads and lurking, and I wasn't sure how to feel about the replace out. I sort-of crumbed it when I was talking about wanting to hammer momo and that it would be pointless to give him a chance to claim (not really a crumb but etc). n2 I docced gin. I considered just holding both shots but I figured i was also a likely kill target especially if my reads were right, and the doc shot had the chance to put the game back in odds, and tracker is stronger once there's only one scum.

I have a feeling that gin is town gambiting to get scum to fakeclaim but i did visit edos last night (so if desp is scum then he'll realize gin was gambiting). Seems like a lot of town power otherwise. If gin is telling the truth then aj is a mafia roleblocker i think? Or i'm wrong on gin.

I guess i'll wait for desperado before speculating too much.

[implosion]

I'm inclined to agree with desp. The setup also makes more sense if the roleblocker is scum (the rolecop shot makes sense with town vig/cop and mafia rb/strongman since rb is a stereotypically scum role). It's possible that aj is town and the roleblocker is there to weaken the rolecop shot but -shrug-. I think the setup makes more sense if he's scum. If aj is scum then my and nos's roles are both pretty powerful so i can see it as balanced.

If nosferatu is mafia he's probably a mafia rolecop or something of the like, since his reaction to aj's claim makes it likely he knew he was blocked. That could have a similar effect to the mafia having a roleblocker in that it gives my rolecop shot a guilty in the strongman and a likely-guilty in the rolecop. Seems desp also figured this out. Self-watcher could make sense but i'd be the only role it could really find.

gin's plan is probably the best actual plan of action. Lynch in VT claims today, tonight aj will clear another VT claim. Tomorrow we decide between aj/nos/the other VT claim. If scum kill me instead of Nos, we can no-lynch and AJ can block the other VT claim and nos can investigate between them and it'll become a 1v1 between nos and one of them. Or something like that. It's probably best not to go too deeply into what will happen here.

If we lynch AJ today and he's town then scum will kill me and nosferatu and it'll be 3p lylo with the three VT claims effectively. Or i guess they'd kill one of us and we'd just lynch at 4p. But we'd have to lynch between VT claims with no info.

I think I'm willing to go for Wheme at this point. Nos or desp or gin would surprise me as scum at this point, especially gin. Wheme today, we re-evaluate tomorrow but likely go for aj. AJ should probably be allowed to claim his target in advance in case he dies and then i think we can just go.

[implosion]

Yeah should have done this like 8 hours ago. Been very lazy.
VOTE: Wheme

My best guess is still aj but i think this is the best path. If i'm still alive tomorrow i'll give it more thought.

[implosion]

I will be pretty astonished if gin is scum. I don't see the need to drag the day out if desperado agrees.

VOTE: aj

[implosion]

[implosion]

I'm generally happy with my play this game.

My first reaction to Nos's claim was that he was an unannounced traitor.

Flavor was wonderful.

Etc.

[implosion]

Some more random comments.

The fire kill was because of the doc claim, because we had a strongman. Without that circumstantial evidence I think we'd have dismissed it but we were already searching for a doc.

The edos kill was a little trickier. I really needed to hit a power role, but more importantly I REALLY needed to dodge the doctors target. That somewhat eliminated gin and desp as choices (gin also seemed especially likely to be a vt). I didn't want to hit any of wheme or nos or aj because they seemed like the likeliest mislynches. That leaves edos, who I figured had a chance of being a pr and was an unlikely ml target because of his interactions with persivul the previous day.

The nos kill was because desp already suspected aj so it minimized d5 hassle.

The edos kill actually wound up being okay by luck. He'd have been clear if he were alive.

Gins plan actually did miss a reasonable contingency which would be scum shooting desp (since he'd be cleared) but it would have been identical to scum killing me.

My inclination is to call the setup slightly scumsided.

[implosion]

And my kill was because?

You were widely townread and persivul thought you might be going after him because of some other recent game. It wasn't a PR read.