Anonymous Large Social Game ELOs

For large social games such as Survivor where the primary mechanic is social interaction.
CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #0  (isolation #0)  » Wed Mar 01, 2017 1:10 am

Hey all! Large Social Game ELOs have existed for a while, but now that we have this section, it makes sense to keep them in their own thread.

ELOs are a predictive measure of how far someone will go in a game, using past information on that player's performance. It is by no means a measurement of how good a player is, but rather how consistent they can make a fairly deep run into the game. Every new player is given a base value of 1200 for their first game. After every anonymous large social, everyone's scores are updated using this calculator. First-time players are given a k-value of 25, while all other players are given a k-value of 15.

A player who has played 2 or more games and most recently played within the past 3 games is marked as "Active". A player who has only played 1 game and that game was within the past 3 games is marked as "Provisional". Finally, a player who hasn't played in over 3 games is marked as "Inactive".

See the current scores!
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #6  (isolation #1)  » Fri Mar 03, 2017 4:44 pm

Yeah, that would make sense, the 3-game period was adopted when literally no games ran concurrently. I'm going to try bumping it up to 5.
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #9  (isolation #2)  » Sat Mar 04, 2017 8:21 pm

I don't mind it - moderating requires a completely different set of skills from playing, so it would be weird to put them together.
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #21  (isolation #3)  » Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:46 pm

Also it's probably not just a temporary break anymore, at least as far as Survivor goes
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #31  (isolation #4)  » Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:41 pm

You were lowered a lot by including games of the past year in the active list!
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #40  (isolation #5)  » Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:18 pm

w o w
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #44  (isolation #6)  » Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:42 am

In post 42, KingdomAces wrote:The problem with Crazy's system is that it enforces the already entrenched idea that everyone must vote in the majority, even if you don't actually want that vote to happen. At least I don't think I'm the only person who has a problem with people doing that.

^
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #63  (isolation #7)  » Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:07 am

You're right zor, it's calculated as (in the case of ned's) 26 1v1 games against everyone else in the game. I think it does skew too heavily towards recent performance, although I could make it more stable by lowering the k-values used for everyone. It's nice to have a dynamic ranking system, but obviously none of them will be anywhere near perfect in something that's so subjective like Survivor and other large social games.
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #81  (isolation #8)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:14 pm

I like the payout system, and I'm going to calculate it tonight to give it a shot. Even gonna include Big Brother with its standard payouts ayy
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #108  (isolation #9)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:32 pm

What are everyone's thoughts on the total prize pool increasing as the playercount increases, with the proportions of payouts the same except each new last place position added gets 2500?
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #109  (isolation #10)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:35 pm

In a 16-player game, there's an average of $92,875 given out per player, so for 17 players the total prize pool increases by 92875, etc.
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #122  (isolation #11)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:03 pm

I haven't factored in non-anons or Big Brother yet, which I will eventually, but I made a table of everyone's winnings here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #131  (isolation #12)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:19 pm

In post 127, zoraster wrote:Oh wait a second, CC. You adjusted your total prize pool not by +2500 per person but by the percent increase over 16?

I'm getting different numbers than 92875 using your table for:
Seafoam Islands
Arkham Asylum
Conclave
NAH
EtU
Arkham 2
PSV
2016
LoL
Nexus

On the ones you mentioned, the total isn't exact because multiple players tied, I believe
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #138  (isolation #13)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:27 pm

This also gives more weight to someone winning in a 24-person game than someone winning an 18-person game, for example
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #153  (isolation #14)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:54 pm

In post 150, zoraster wrote:Like I'm not suggesting not to give an outsized portion to the winner. But I am saying that 67% of the prize pool being the top prize makes sense for a game show but doesn't really make sense when we have people who are repeat players. Reduce it down to 45% and it's still SUPER important to win vs. come in second.

I'll try calculating new totals tomorrow with the poker-style handouts and see how much that changes things :)
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Location: Richmond, VA
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Post Post #159  (isolation #15)  » Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:40 am

We need an infinite number of ways to jerk each other off

I added a new tab called "PokerMoney" with more even money distributions. I'm not the biggest fan since it puts xofelf considerably ahead of Snakes despite the fact that Snakes has far more wins, but if anyone wants to see what that ranking looks like, it's there!
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #178  (isolation #16)  » Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:17 pm

winner gets the highest payout, first boot gets second highest payout, second boot gets third highest, etc. until second place gets the lowest payout
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #193  (isolation #17)  » Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:10 pm

I think pickemgenius's 0/16 is pretty admirable
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #196  (isolation #18)  » Fri Apr 07, 2017 11:24 pm

Everything has been updated for MLS
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Location: Richmond, VA
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Post Post #204  (isolation #19)  » Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:41 pm

ELOs have been updated for One World!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =598422038
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Location: Richmond, VA
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Post Post #211  (isolation #20)  » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:51 am

"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf


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