Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

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Post Post #1 (isolation #0) » Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:37 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Well I've been spoiled, so I know how good or bad my reads are :P

Was kind of an interesting game, curious what people think of how it's gone so far and my play (first d1 mislynch, wasn't super fun, but lolwillage or something I guess *shrugs* )
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #4 (isolation #1) » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:03 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Sad to see RC replaced out :(
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #5 (isolation #2) » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:06 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

OJ poured, candle is toasty
with this chant, I summon postie

:P

almost as good as original
Kaze13 wrote:OJ poured
candle + lighter
with this chant
i summon phighter
http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... post704303
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #8 (isolation #3) » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:45 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Not sure how much you read, but my departing reads were essentially

icy/dark - mech clears
dogwatch - pretty hard town
mastina - pretty hard town
oldwino - townish

POE of RC, Grey, lemon, with lemon my strongest read.

Also PM'd mods guessing RC/lemon or Grey/oldwino as the two scumteams I was mulling over before I died.

I've been spoiled, so I know how accurate I was or wasn't, but I'm curious what your reads are on the game state overall.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #11 (isolation #4) » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:53 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

FWIW...

Subject: Newbie 1779 | Spring | Night 1
for some reason my bold/underline tags got destroyed so I'll fix here
mhsmith0 wrote:
In post 473, mastina wrote:Living up to your title--your title's not just because you're a reviewer. It is also a reflection of your style as a town player: balanced. Reasonable.
Yet this game, you are consistently displaying a tone which is frankly outright hostile to others
. There's a lack of clear, strong, decisive logic, both in your posts and in your actions.
You come across as angry. You come across as vain. You come across as looking down on others. You come across as argumentative
.
Ooh, a bunch of town tells! :lol:
In post 473, mastina wrote:Yet here, with you on the fence about literally fucking everything (I can point to your read on every player and why it is weak), you're doing nothing to try and strengthen any of those reads. You're happy, you're content, just leaving them as they have been. And that's why I think you are scum.
I actually believe that mastina believes this. I also cringe when reading her walls, and realize that I should probably have spent less time getting irritated at what she's been doing and more time actually being productive.
Regardless of her alignment, I think getting into a big fight with her was counter-productive and prevented me from being more generally useful, and I think that wasn't directly the reason i was lynched, but probably was the reason that I wasn't useful enough to put myself into a spot where I wouldn't get lynched.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #13 (isolation #5) » Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:23 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Basically her entire game screamed out really terrible town more than anything else. Like at some point when someone is playing a game practically designed to get everyone mad at her and get herself lynched, it's just generally town.

Also a bunch of stuff that she did exhibited pretty extreme confbias, which when real is always town (wolves need to fake it since they know the answer). Also it was clear she was trying to solve but doing so badly. Also it seemed like she lacked the thread awareness to understand just how badly people were taking her posts, as well as the fact that it was merited (which is probably part of why she basically omgus scum read everyone pushing/voting her early) etc etc etc
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #14 (isolation #6) » Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:29 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

I've also been derp-pushed by a bunch of people for various reasons over the last half year or so, and I've seen people play bad town games a decent amount of time too (including ones I've modded). So I guess I'm sensitive to the possibility, and eventually shifted into thinking that was so. I'll also just quote soah (PROBABLY the best player I've ever played with or against) talking to Titus in rio
http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... post516787
Titus - I tried to get her to clear herself to me by showing me that she's playing a good village game, but she instead wanted to clear herself to me by showing that she's playing a bad village game. I set a high bar for people who go that route, but she is putting on a good performance so far.
And basically say that something similar applied to my read here.

Ps fwiw, RC/grey was something I was slightly tinfoiling over, especially since they were both in POE, but figured they wouldn't likely go at each other like that (especially on grey side) if they were buddies.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #16 (isolation #7) » Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:39 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Fwiw, a thought I had early was that RC/mastina might have been early theater, like the inverse of RC/ranger in open 635 where ranger pushed RC early and then "came around" on the slot.

But then I started town reading mastina and dumped that one low on the triage list.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #17 (isolation #8) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:13 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 894, Alisae wrote:Alright this is textbook scum!Grey sheep me guys I didn't read the rest of the game besides Grey's ISO at all.
VOTE: Grey
For my next magic trick, I will make Grey's scumbuddy bus him because that's the best way to play mafia.
In all seriousness I can explain a bit more in-depth when I get home.
Spoiler:
Image
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #18 (isolation #9) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:15 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

I'm also going to just go ahead and presume that scum buried a bullet on the BP instead of shooting the tracker as they needed to do like 100% of the time.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #20 (isolation #10) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:23 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #22 (isolation #11) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:42 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 900, -Grey- wrote:
In post 894, Alisae wrote:Alright this is textbook scum!Grey sheep me guys I didn't read the rest of the game besides Grey's ISO at all.
VOTE: Grey
For my next magic trick, I will make Grey's scumbuddy bus him because that's the best way to play mafia.
In all seriousness I can explain a bit more in-depth when I get home.
Sorry but you're wrong.

For my next truck, I'm going to disappear.

replace out
That looks a LOT like a strategic subout, in a freaking newbie game. Not cool at all.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #25 (isolation #12) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:49 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 928, mastina wrote:
In post 888, PenguinPower wrote:
RadiantCowbells has requested replacement. Night 1 deadline on hold until a replacement is found.
So this is obviously a disinterest/detachment/boredom replace-out, though I'm not sure if there is an alignment attached to this. I don't know if RC would get disheartened enough to replace out as scum, and by my gut, I would think the answer would be no.

......
:facepalm:
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #26 (isolation #13) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:19 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
I give up. Mastina is just completely destroying town. Should have policy lynched her day 1.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #27 (isolation #14) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 11:08 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler: salt warning
In post 0, mastina wrote:The way I view the game, my reads are in a neverending state of constant flux: I doubt everything, because I think of every possibility.
Image
Image
Image

I shouldn't post this. I shouldn't do this.
BUT I SOLVED THE GODDAMN GAME AND I'M BEING GODDAMN IGNORED BY SOMEONE WHO DOESN'T EVEN CARE ENOUGH TO READ AND CONSIDER WHAT I WAS SAYING AS AN IC NO LESS AND I'M GOING TO EAT A GODDAMN LOSS OVER THIS CRAP WHY DOES TOWN THIS BAD CONSTANTLY HAPPEN WHEN I'M TOWN AND ALMOST NEVER HAPPEN WHEN I'M SCUM

Image
In post 960, mastina wrote:If you are interested in the exact specifics, I was reading the thread while offline (something I don't often do, but sometimes will for various reasons equally beneficial to both alignments), and I was noticing mhsmith towntelling left and right. I wanted to make a post where I acknowledged him doing so, but keeping my vote on him for two main reasons--one, doubting an extension would be granted with him as literally the only viable lynch. And two, wanting to have him confirmed as town rather than simply probable town.

In that same post, I was going to request that mhsmith give essentially a summary of his most up-to-date thoughts, so I wouldn't have to read between the lines and sift through all of his posting to figure out his reads with perfect clarity and accuracy. (I instead settled for asking the mod to convey essentially that same message to him, including an apology for the unfortunate clash and lamenting the lack of him towntelling earlier because if he had done what he did in the middle of the day rather than at the end of the day I most certainly WOULD have unvoted.)
I give up. Literally I give up. Heaven forbid she give enough of damn about the game to actually do shit like this, WHEN SHE HERSELF ACKNOWLEDGED SHE SHOULD.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #29 (isolation #15) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 11:13 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 28, PenguinPower wrote:I'm watching Scrubs right now
So am I. Oh wait, you meant the TV show? :lol:
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #30 (isolation #16) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 11:19 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 968, DogWatch wrote:Also not understanding how all your assumptions hinge on Grey!town.
Because she's ridiculously conf!biased and too sure of herself (despite being ridiculously wrong already) to bother giving any kind of meaningful thought to rethinking the gamestate. I've seen badtown drive towns right off a cliff often enough, it should be obvious as hell this is what mastina is doing right here as well.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #34 (isolation #17) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 11:38 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 32, Postie wrote:Despite having been in 3 games together so far I don't feel we've ever actually interacted with each other properly. That should happen sometime. Your thoughts on the game are insightful and your approach is refreshing.
FWIW, a lot of it is just finding things that really good players have said and tracking it, but I do think I'm decent at certain specific things that others struggle with, notably tone reading and VCA. I think I'm also generally better at town reads than most, even though in general I'm more trying to find scum than find town. idk why that is, but it seems to have been something that happened.

Spoiler:
I also have a tendency to get really salty in dead thread when towns are really terrible after my death, ESPECIALLY when I'm being flat-out ignored and/or people just grab one or two specific things from what I said instead of critically engaging with it. Some of it is that I tend to have active faith that town will be terrible and blow games that should never be blown, as well as a longstanding record backing up this perception of how things go.

Game after game after game after game I eat losses as town that I don't particularly think I deserve (and in this one, my mislynch was ridiculous and a function of a lazy town including a failure of an IC who decided not to care enough about the game to show up despite now explicitly noting that she was actually watching, or to care enough to substantively engage with anything I was saying despite knowing that 1) I'm competent and 2) I'm town).

I don't know why I get so mad about this stuff, I really shouldn't, but it just infuriates me. It's probably a function of actually caring, and just getting disappointed by my teammates over and over and over again. Probably why my WIM continues to decline over time (which is probably ALSO why I increasingly rarely obvtown when I'm town)
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #35 (isolation #18) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 11:47 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 975, mastina wrote:This is one of the reasons I was so peeved so few people answered my questions. Those questions give me a crash-course in psychologically profiling players (a technique I rely heavily on), and DogWatch answering as she did is able to give me this.
This one I'll unspoil my thoughts on. No one regardless of role, including an IC, has any kind of right to actually expect people to answer RQS (which is EXACTLY what it was even if mastina didn't like the terminology). If you want people to be open and honest with you, you need to reciprocate, and mastina went OUT OF HER WAY to avoid doing this, to the point where it was actively poisonous to the game state. So my sympathy level for her on this end is exactly zero.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #36 (isolation #19) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 11:50 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 978, Alisae wrote:Staaaawp.
Grey is going to get townread as either alignment majority of the time. One of the things about his scumgame is A. He hates playing scum and B. Either way his game is going to be clean.
Please for the love of all that is good somehow save this town from itself
In post 979, Darklyn wrote:Either way there just isn't enough in his ISO to lynch him on, sorry
Yeah I'm not optimistic on Alisae's chances lolololol
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #40 (isolation #20) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 12:56 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 38, Postie wrote:What does WIM stand for?
And yeah being ignored after your death when you had meaningful thoughts always sucks. But at least you can say you had meaningful thoughts! Hopefully people will learn to listen over time.
WIM = Wants It More

I'm legitimately proud of my >.500 town win record on MS given that in almost every single format towns have a losing record, AND I've eaten a shit-ton of unlucky losses, while having very very few lucky wins. Unfortunately it's BARELY over .500 and eating a loss here just totally sucks :(
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #41 (isolation #21) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 12:58 pm

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In post 38, Postie wrote:I also kinda doubt the efficacy of RQS "psychological profiling". I do like RQS but I think it's best used as a way to fish scummy/towny reactions out of newbies who don't yet know how they should be acting and so end up just wordvomiting stuff instead.
Basically, yes. "I had all of these awesome questions, why didn't people care about playing the way I wanted them to play" is basically a useless attitude, and calling back to it is completely unproductive and distracting. You can't play in a manner that makes life more difficult for others, while at the same time demanding that others make life easier for you. You just can't do that, regardless of your role. And an IC effectively trying to set an example of that as appropriate behavior is not appropriate (IMO).
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #44 (isolation #22) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 1:22 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Town Record on MS

2016
Micro 600 (1-0) - I was super mediocre here, day was a hard carry by the anti/plot hydra, though I did have an early scum read on one of the two scum (just not the one lynched that day). I was also a mason, and successfully avoided getting shot at :)

Newbie 1691 (1-1) - I was pretty decent here, I basically solved the game in LYLO on day 3, but A50 subbed in and was basically insane, and I ended up incorrectly hammering him day 4 (an early exposure to someone playing horrifically, while being town)

Open 635 (1-2) - One of my many just unlucky losses :( subbed in at 5v3 MYLO, correctly called the RC slot scum, but Titus/Postie voted townie Cakez and RC/Ranger/FA (a quality scum team overall, FWIW) had a collective midnight hammer that's still pretty funny to read.

Mini Normal 1782 (2-2) - I was a bit struggly early, but Roshar (even night roleblocker, overall town MVP) blocked Huntress N2 and then hard-led the lynch D3. In twilight I correctly called Titus as being bussing scum, ate a N3 bullet, and eventually town got her and the other scum for the win before LYLO.

Mini Normal 1775 (2-3) - With 6p left (5v1) I correctly called the last scum, was basically ignored, then compromised on a secondary scum lynch, then in MYLO I was AGAIN ignored, then we no lynched, then i was shot, then scum won in LYLO. I was "very impressive" in that gmae according to the mod, lost anyway.

Open 644 (2-4) - I played poorly in this one, including a game-long tunnel on Ploben. Scum swept despite not really doing all that much.

Open 642 (2-5) - I feel like I played fine this game, I subbed in on day 2, my hard scum-reads were ranger (a townie playing atrociously) and BTD6 (actual scum). Game was desperately hampered by an incredible rate of sub-outs, and, as one outside observer said to me, "shitty player levels of care". An early example of my consistent ability to read Titus correctly, fwiw (also a good example of essentially earning a town MVP award in a losing effort, an unfortunately common aspect of my meta)

Mini 1815 (3-5) - Scum team screwed up the night one shot on what was structurally a pretty scum-sided setup. I played meh, not terribly, not amazingly.

Micro 634 (4-5) - Showed up on day 3 (one scum dead, the cop also dead), picked out the other scum almost immediately for a quick and easy win.

Open 646 (5-5) - I was a part of the day 1 scum lynch, and I eventually made it down to Transcend being the other scum, and destroyed him in 3p LYLO. I deserved the win, but wasn't spectacular or anything (mistakes were def. made along the way)

Mini Normal 1829 (5-6) - subbed in as a bodyguard, used ability on a town clear, then watched town derp its way to a loss. Also it was a poorly constructed AND scumsided normal setup.

Micro 645 (6-6) - Shadow_Step and I hydra'd, we were doctor, and were shot N1. Went to LYLO but town won.

Newbie 1747 (7-6) - Absolutely fucking crushed this game, leading a day 1 roleblocker lynch (AFTER the jk claimed), keeping Thor from getting mislynched day 2 (PP was instead), then helping lead the day 3 scum lynch. Me and Hermie were co town MVPs I think.

Real Folk Blues (cancelled) - Absolutely fucking crushed my reads this game, even calling out the Ircher/BTD6 hydra lynch as being a lynchbait lyncha and that the two counters were both scum, and led a d2 wagon on scum!Nosferatu, which probably goes through if Panzer didn't out his entire damn scum team for REASONS. Probably my best reads-wise game ever, and it got cancelled. OF COURSE THIS HAPPENED.

Mini Normal 1844 (8-6) - I had mediocre day game, but crushed it at night (odd night weak doctor), me and Jae saved the game for town with our night actions.

Newbie 1753 (9-6) - Was fine overall. Two days, two scum lynches. Wasn't really an MVP effort by me, but I was decent at finding town (also scumread the cop but oh well that shit happens sometimes :lol: )

Open 656 (10-6) - Essentially my only ridiculously lucky town win. Subbed in at 3p LYLO with the town role cop getting a guilty the night before. IIRC scum self-hammered even before I posted :lol:

Open 658 (10-7) - My FIRST ever mislynch on MS, as Trans got OMGUSy and all three masons derp-wagoned me, then town basically collapsed.

Newbie 1756 (10-8) - Cop/Doc/RB setup, I subbed on at day 3 LYLO with both town roles dead, STILL hard-pushed scum!Accountant, and probably win if Loopdan doesn't dump a lazy-ass vote on a townie that day phase.

2017

New Years Eve Ball (0-1) - Town played pretty awfully overall. I was meh, far from the worst of the lot. I was also dayvigged by Pieguyn (my lover), and then she was like "BUT I KNEW YOU WEREN'T SCUM" in dead thread :facepalm:

Mini 1856 (1-1) - Probably a mechanically townsided game (just about the only one ever I've had around here), I got derp-vigged by Aero, and then town mislynched its way into the final 3 before just barely pulling it out

In Memory (2-1) - I was fine here, nothing special, nothing terrible. Reads were reasonable, I was in a hood with scum and avoided getting pocketed, and I debatably made a game-saving night action by following Alisae (and then was told that my night action was totally idiotic and a town PR would never have done that :lol: )
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #45 (isolation #23) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 1:25 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

I also have a 2-3 town record on games outside MS (ignoring turbos which I do decently at as town). I'm also sub .500 overall as scum (1-0 on MS tho) but I don't really give a shit about my scum record (I also nearly got a win in 6-faction multiball as scum but one of my teammates screwed up a late game scenario vote and then we were screwed, alas).
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #47 (isolation #24) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 1:35 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

I just update my personal wiki every so often, makes it easier to dump out lists like that one.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #49 (isolation #25) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 1:38 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

FWIW I recommend going to someone else's wiki that you like, hitting edit, and then just copying their whole thing and then editing for yourself.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #50 (isolation #26) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 1:56 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

:shifty:
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #51 (isolation #27) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 2:48 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
viewtopic.php?p=8990712#p8990712
mastina is listening and substantively engaging. I am pleased :D
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #53 (isolation #28) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 2:54 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

I did :lol:
I think the spoiler thing delinked it somehow
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #55 (isolation #29) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:39 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1050, Darklyn wrote:Not to say Grey is incapable of bussing his partner, but it would be very, very unlikely. In my mind if lemonater is scum his only possible partners are Alisae or oldwino
Grey's vote was super obviously a possible lazy distancing vote for anyone who takes like 5 minutes to look at it specifically. It's like town is competing really hard for who can win the scum MVP award :(

PS
In post 1043, Darklyn wrote:Alisae is the first choice for today vote for him pls
is pretty bad as well :(
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #56 (isolation #30) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:16 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1074, Alisae wrote:maybe I'll keep my sanity if I treat Darklyn as VI and ignore everything they say.
That would be wise :lol:

More seriously, darklyn has gleefully embraced a near-total lack of empathy and interest in engaging with Alisae and considering what he has to say. In particular:
In post 1067, Darklyn wrote:I said I'll lynch one of them tomorrow if I'm alive, what more do you want?
is pretty much an accurate description of the persona darklyn has embraced, a combination of utter disinterest in engaging with Alisae's case in any kind of useful or meaningful manner, a "eh fuck it I guess I'll sheep you if you die" perspective (which is just lazy and toxic) and an explicit "this is all you get, and somehow you're unreasonable for expecting anything better from me" ending. There are a LOT of people who willfully embrace this kind of horrible and anti-town attitude, and this is a HUGE part of why scum have a >50% win rate in newbie games despite a setup construction that is, with even a semi-functional town, really really hard for scum to win at.

Like, when town is functional, interesting, interested, and avoids lazy reasoning and shitty conf!bias and loss of empathy, towns tend to really roll through games, with two notable examples from my own experience including:

1753 (my first IC game)
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=68914
easy town sweep (double newb scum, and a bunch of aggressive SE/IC's who were nonetheless interested in solving and choosing to critically engage with each other, including thinking about when to back off of a case when it seemed wrong... scum had basically no chance)

1747 (thor was IC)
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=68656
not quite as good of an example, but still overall a pretty easy town win. There was a solid POE established early on, there was active effort to figure out the right day 1 lynch, there was active effort to figure out the right day 2 lynch (my saving thor from mislynch, even if PP ate rope incorrectly instead, drastically shortened the game), and from there scum just didn't have anywhere to go


Mastina has done an objectively terrible job of teaching town how to solve, and of setting any kind of good example for openness, flexibility, interest and communication, though it does seem like she's showing HINTS of it going forward. Darklyn has been pretty awful throughout the game, and it sounds like he actually claims mafia experience?

Basically town has had to deal with two serious weights around its neck, and it's often difficult to win in that situation. I'd also note that the two best townies in the game, me and RC, were gone by night 1, one from a pretty shitty mislynch (driven the two badtowns no less :lol: ), and one from subout, which has left town pretty bereft of solving ability, which is really unfortunate for dogwatch and oldwino, both of whom seem to legitimately be TRYING in this one, but who have been pretty badly let down by their teammates.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #57 (isolation #31) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:17 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1075, Darklyn wrote:I just promised I'd lynch one of your scumreads tomorrow if I lived (and even if I don't I'm sure Icy and oldwino will)
Doubling down on his horrible post is just horrible. If he's actually experienced as he claims, then he has an INCREDIBLE amount to learn about playing as town (though honestly this was pretty obvious from our d1 theory debate).
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #59 (isolation #32) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:36 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Well based on that I'd say you're not actually pieguyn then :P
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #60 (isolation #33) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:38 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

I actually thought about putting this in my sig for a bit

Subject: New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball Scum PT
Parama wrote:pie vs smith is savage
except that I have a rule of only using quotes from games I win in the sig :P (well, that and quotes about my modding... and quotes not about mafia... :P )
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #61 (isolation #34) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:39 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

I kinda feel like this should be dark's new sig :P
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQGOJXbQh1I
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #64 (isolation #35) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:49 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

FWIW, I'd note that mastina's meta read of me (the "balanced" stuff) is SOMETIMES accurate, but is often not accurate, and sufficiently often inaccurate that it struck me as made up on her end. My guess is she was just being ridiculously lazy about it, looking at like one game and/or flat-out sheeping the language used in the title fairy thread.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #66 (isolation #36) » Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:08 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Watching town implode from dead chat is WAY more fun when you're a wolf :P
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #68 (isolation #37) » Sun Mar 19, 2017 4:37 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1081, DogWatch wrote:
In post 1079, Icy wrote:
If you believe that scum team then why not vote with Dark/Mastina?
Slightly more confident in the lemon slot being scum than alisae.

There's also something to be said for the ulti/pieg/lemon slot being replaced AGAIN.
*hugs*
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #69 (isolation #38) » Sun Mar 19, 2017 5:37 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
so now both scum have apparently strategically replaced out (ulti/lemon slot TWICE) and they're wagoning alisae instead, because "we will learn more". Jfc :facepalm:
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #71 (isolation #39) » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:26 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1088, Icy wrote:Sometimes you have to "take one for the team". If she is town she still wins when we win.
That is an absolutely disgusting attitude and if anyone actually taught him that, they should be ashamed of themselves. You don't meekly accept your mislynch in the hopes that somehow town might sheep your reads (which may or may not be any good anyway) in future days.

This is ABSOLUTELY where mastina, as an IC, should be intervening to shut down that kind of toxic and anti-town attitude. I really really hope she bothers to do so.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #75 (isolation #40) » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:12 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1111, Icy wrote:I'll give you my case on her. She replaced RC. If you read nightfall you will see she is doing what RC said he would do today.
This is not a case. It's a statement of something transparently NAI (not alignment indicative). If anything, the rather extreme lack of anyone being bothered by RC getting lynched should make it ridiculously obvious that the ONLY reasonably possible person who could be scum with RC is Lemon, which means you should just lynch Lemon slot first, which also ought to have been fairly obvious from reading my legacy (not that anyone really cared to do this :( )
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #76 (isolation #41) » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:50 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1132, mastina wrote:
In post 1048, Alisae wrote:You're just assuming I'm townreading people for helping me lynch Grey or agreeing with my reads. Stop.
It's not an assumption. It's an objective observation.
You are townreading the players that are agreeing with your reads, especially the ones who are interested in lynching Grey.
This is firm, 100%, fact.
You can argue whether this means anything, sure, yes, that you can do. I happen to think it no coincidence, but that would be debatable.

You can't argue the existence of this trend, because yes it exists. That you are is doing you no favors.
pot meet kettle (mastinas three hard scum reads we're all omgus on day one) - also this is in no way alignment indicative, town do this shit all the time
In post 1133, mastina wrote:
In post 1077, PenguinPower wrote:
Searching for a replacement for lemonater
I saw no indication of a prod so this looks like the
second
newbie in the slot to have requested a replace-out. :neutral:
Maybe lynch there instead of the alisae slot like my departing vote said to do? Since "but we won't learn much" is trash reasoning anyway?
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #77 (isolation #42) » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:53 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1135, mastina wrote:
In post 1081, DogWatch wrote:Slightly more confident in the lemon slot being scum than alisae. There's also something to be said for the ulti/pieg/lemon slot being replaced AGAIN.
To be honest. This is actually my stance right now. The lemonator slot is actually a larger scumread than Alisae. I
think
Alisae is scum, but I'm not absolutely sure; I'm pretty damn sure that lemonator's slot is scum.
THEN FUCKING VOTE THERE AAAAAAAARGH WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY ARE YOU NOT VOTING YOUR TOP SCUM READ WHY ARE YOU NOT DEMONSTRATING BASIC COMPETENT PLAY TO THE NEWBIES :facepalm:
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #78 (isolation #43) » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:55 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Is there like an anti-scummy I can nominate this game for?
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #79 (isolation #44) » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:58 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1137, mastina wrote:
In post 1113, ThinkBig wrote:Welcome Christ
Can I just comment on how appropriate this comment is with your Amish avatar?
It's Jewish, which makes it amusing in a different way.
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Post Post #80 (isolation #45) » Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:05 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1141, ChrisOrmie wrote:...
...
I agree with Smith's points, and in fact think he's one of the best on the site from a teaching standpoint. Seriously - go read his wiki, past games, etc... you'll learn a heck of a lot.

...
Really hate that Smith went out the game early, because I'd love to see a ton more of these in here. The Smith wagon is infuriating as he's throwing good content out there, yet every page or two there is another vote creeping on.

...
Get rid of confBias, re-read Mastina's ISO, look at her d1 interactions with Smith and show me where you read him as scummy and Mastina is town.
calls smith awesome, votes the slot that smith went down hard-town reading :lol:

Meanwhile town is deciding to lazy lynch alisae (a wagon with VERY little resistance, not that anyone has noticed that or apparently even had an eye out for that sort of thing) for "information", which is basically the mafia version of this plan

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Post Post #84 (isolation #46) » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:16 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1148, Alisae wrote:
In post 1147, DogWatch wrote:do we actually know icy was attacked? could there have been no night action at all?
townslip and even if this isn't a townslip I don't see why scum would push this narative.

Occam's Razor deduces that Icy was attacked rather then Scum pulling a no-kill gambit.
Villagery response (thinking about it critically in terms of dogwatch's alignment, instead of just dumping out a lazy answer and being done with it)
In post 1149, ChrisOrmie wrote:
In post 1147, DogWatch wrote:do we actually know icy was attacked? could there have been no night action at all?
No kill is bad for scum, and mod said BP wouldn't know if they'd been targeted or even if their 1-shotBP was gone. Pretty sure scum went after Icy last night.
Nullscummy response (IIOA, does nothing other than an empty response to something that was just answered)

And yet people are wagoning Alisae for "information". :lol: :facepalm: :lol: :facepalm:
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Post Post #85 (isolation #47) » Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:26 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1185, ThinkBig wrote:Alisae, if you're actually town, then you really need to pull out of your tunnel and confirmation bias. Did you learn anything from Witch Trial's Mafia? The TVT bullshit from you and dreal cost town the game. I'm not having a repeat of that here.
We're TvT! Also I'm trying to lynch you!
:lol:
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Post Post #86 (isolation #48) » Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:36 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1188, ThinkBig wrote:Um you were death tunneling me at twilight 1 and from what I recall, you still TR'd Grey even after his god awful hammer.
ThinkBig CONTINUES to talk to Alisae as if he's reading him as badtown WHILE TRYING TO LYNCH HIM

this game is just PAINFUL
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Post Post #88 (isolation #49) » Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:48 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
the only helpful thing is Chris boxed himself into a "it's t/t read" there and I don't think he can easily bail. Then again a townie lolhammering alisae seems super plausible :cry:
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Post Post #92 (isolation #50) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 3:45 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 90, pieg wrote:smith have you ever hydraed?
Yes a couple times. Both times I was town and got shot n1 lolololol
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Post Post #93 (isolation #51) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:11 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1191, mastina wrote:Posting here to say, probably not posting tonight: there's some white stuff on my kitten's nose. Now, a quick google tells me I should
probably
not be concerned.

Most likely, kitty litter. (After all, she has some basically permanent black stuff stuck to her fur under her chin which I assume is food dried into her fur; this wouldn't be much different.) Maybe dry skin.

Still, all the same: I want to alert my family of this and keep an eye on her until I can personally deliver the message, so...not going to post tonight even though I planned to.

Sorry.
Calling back to my
In post 622, mhsmith0 wrote:Incidentally, I'll flesh out my $0.02 in mastina a bit (noting that I've been avoiding reading some of her stuff lately):

1) Her overall playstyle of being super opaque, while anti-town, is not necessarily scum. Here's why: what is the gain? What she's been doing has been super frustrating for me to deal with, but it's also had the fairly predictable result of making her a big center of attention, and not the positive kind.

Excerpting from my standard IC post again:
SECONDARY SPOILER TAG: Bad Posting vs Scum Posting


In a lot of games you can see people posting badly, whether it means lurking, saying really stupid things, being intellectually lazy about their engagement, or all sorts of other pretty transparently anti-town behaviors.
And, unfortunately, a lot of the time (though NOT always) really bad posting is done by townies instead of mafia. Sorting between “bad” and “scum” is one of the hardest things to do in the game, but it’s a tremendously important part of your development if you want to get good at scum-hunting.

Consider a few examples:
Example #1
http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... post722301
Sociopath wrote:I'm back on but won't be very active until up to 3 hours before EoD because I'm going to an early fireworks event for Bonfire Night.
http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... post722309
lulz wrote:
Sociopath wrote:I'm showcasing my lynchbait status the way a peacock showcases their feathers. I make awful posts day after day, daring you to lynch me.
I fixed your typos.
http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... post722312
lulz wrote:Scum is not as demonstratably awful as sociopath.
In that game, both lulz and sociopath were town. Sociopath got mislynched essentially for making a parade of terrible posts (the cited post was just one of many), which is a fairly predictable outcome of that behavior. But it’s notable that she wasn’t actually mafia.

END SECONDARY SPOILER TAG


Here, it's mastina taking the sociopath role, making posts that are practically designed to get her wagoned and lynched, and the point of it all is... what? To run a scam where she makes herself look fake lynchbaity, just to hope she eventually gets off and people townread her for it? I won't deny that it's theoretically possible, but it seems too clever by half to acutally be a likely plan, and that ignores the fact that she's an IC, which means that if she's scum intentionally playing badly just to create a town read from bad play... I just really struggle to see someone who's IC'ing try THAT kind of stunt intentionally.

More credible, I think, is that either she thinks that she's been much more helpful than she's actually been, or that she believes as an IC, that it's correct to put more energy into teaching (including the "figure it out yourselves guys" attitude) than playing, and that kind of attitude is much more natural as a town IC (if I get lynched, there are still two mislynches to go, and maybe my lynch becomes useful) than a scum IC (if I'm mislynched, we're kind of screwed).

So to my mind, the underlying mindset *fits* better as a town IC mindset who either thinks better of her communication and participation than she should, or who simply doesn't care how she's perceived (this was explicit in , but I think that there's attitude along those lines underlying her overall approach, as opposed to it just being there in that post), compared to a scum IC who'd presumably WANT to not get lynched.


2) Who would reasonably fit as her buddy? I don't think I ever really got the sense that the board was nervous about her being a potential wagon (need to verify this but that's my thought on the gamestate), which means that I'd consider it unlikely that she'd have a newbie partner (unless this was all a really weird and really specific strategy), I've already talked about why i don't think it's grey, and that would leave an RC-mastina pairing, which while I guess conceptually possible (RC going after mastina and then backing off would be like an inverse of open 635 when Ranger went after RC and then backed off), is the sort of super-specific thing that I wouldn't want to go nuts worrying about at this point of the game.


So I'm not going to hard town clear her or the like, but I'm having a hard time making any of it really fit under a "she's scum" model, so she's probably just town instead.
That mastina would actually post essentially the same "hey everyone look at me I'm lynchbait" thing as sociopath posted AND I REFERENCED, soon before her likely lynch within the next 24 hours, is just completely hilarious to me.
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Post Post #94 (isolation #52) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:16 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

On a different note...
In post 1142, Drixx wrote:
You guys have a penchant for knowing when I've gone to sleep and doing something crazy right then. Game is officially over.
Image

FWIW, I'd probably hold that one up as a good example of a town IC powertowning up a game mainly through sheer WIM (Want It More). Reads were very unusually poor that game (tunnelled on scum!DS day 1 [though for crap reasons], but let up on him day 2 and spent most of day 2 flailing around, and then after the scum!Grey lynch really struggled to find his buddy), but I recognized the game state being bad a few times and powered through on mechanical plays and gambits leading to an eventual town win.
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Post Post #95 (isolation #53) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:04 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1200, PenguinPower wrote:
Vote Count 2.07

Image


mastina
(3): ChrisOrmie, Icy, Dogwatch
Alisae
(3): mastina, Darklyn, ThinkBig
ThinkBig
(2): Alisae, oldwino

Not Voting
:
With 8 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

Deadline
: (expired on 2017-03-31 13:00:00)

In post 1201, Alisae wrote:VOTE: mastina
If I can't get the Grey slot, I'll go get mastina.
"More than half the day phase remaining, time to give up on my top scum read" :lol:
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Post Post #96 (isolation #54) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:31 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1202, ThinkBig wrote:Mastina is at L-1
Empty observation, tonally dead fish

There was a time when mastina was like "if ThinkBig doesn't do stuff I'm gonna totally lynch him"

Decent odds she'll just eat a mislynch (thoroughly deserved btw) before she comes back to do anything, although I rather substantially suspect that even if she did come back she'd basically forget about that thing.
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Post Post #97 (isolation #55) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:50 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1203, DogWatch wrote:let's see a mastina claim before anyone hammers
Image

Since DW has been trying I'll add in substance to the snark gif. Basically mastina can't be a town PR since both claimed, therefore she's scum or a VT. Therefore waiting on a claim is basically useless, since she always would have claimed if she was a town PR (this presumes a basic level of mechanical competence, of course, but despite mastina's awful showing this game I don't think she'd be THAT bad as to completely flub an obvious CC scenario)
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Post Post #98 (isolation #56) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:49 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1211, DogWatch wrote:make one mistake and you're treated like a retard
in a newbie game of all things

a newbie game FILLED WITH EXPERIENCED PLAYERS
:(

sorry that things went in that direction fwiw

:(
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Post Post #99 (isolation #57) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:08 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1220, oldwino wrote:
In post 1201, Alisae wrote:VOTE: mastina
If I can't get the Grey slot, I'll go get mastina.
You didn't note 'L1." TB had to do it for you. Makes you look more suspicious and him less suspicious, unless Mastina is his scum buddy and he wanted to make sure no one hammered without realizing it. Now I am alone voting TB/Grey. With Mastina and Alisae as my next two scum suspicions. Around and around we go!
so...

this is actually incorrect, fwiw. Not noting L-1 is pretty NAI (not alignment indicative) because it's mainly just sloppy, unless there's a context of scum motivation of somehow fooling someone into accidentlaly hammering (which I don't think scum ever really do)

The scummy side of it is TB's, because he noted that it was L-1 without doing anything about it. Does he care that mastina is L-1? Does he care that Alisae, who he'd been voting for, put her there? Pretty much no on both ends. So he basically made a largely useless observation (just about anyone could/would have noticed it anyway), with no substantive interest in the situation or using it to develop or push any reads. The reason for this is that he's scum, and does not WANT to develop or push any reads; instead, he wants to hang out, be lazy, and let mastina go down today and alisae tomorrow (with the reverse of it about as convenient as well).

One of the big things with scumhunting is to think through motivations and actions. Why is someone doing something? Why is someone NOT doing something? Alisae didn't say L-1 because he's being sloppy. ThinkBig said L-1 without doing anything about it because he didn't actually care about the lynch state (which ought to be VERY concerning for anyone who was considering TB/mastina as a team concept).
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Post Post #101 (isolation #58) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:44 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Thanks! I feel like that was one of my better games even if my reads were up and down. Something to be said for just super WIMing a game from time to time.

I'll also note fwiw that I got a LOT more high energy on day 3 in that one after Grey by all appearances did a strategic sub-out here. I was like "oh I am NOT losing that that guy" and my energy level went up a pretty decent amount after that point. Obv couldn't talk about that there since this is ongoing, but it did impact what I was doing.
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Post Post #102 (isolation #59) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:50 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Also
Spoiler:
viewtopic.php?p=9014908#p9014908
REALLY ought to go with a vote on Chris. You think he's lockscum? VOTE HIM! GET HIM LYNCHED! None of this "let's get more information" nonsense, just lynch the likeliest scum.

Talking about connections and associations generally isn't really optimal, but it happens naturally over the course of the game sometimes (and I'd note that I was talking about it essentially in twilight as part of leaving a legacy as opposed to it being something that I was strongly encouraging as optimal play or the like)... but deciding NOT to lynch the likeliest scum is a good idea approximately 5% of the time, and that 5% is essentially stuff like needing to hunt a scum vig, needing to pick off specifically one scum team or the other in multiball, or similar situations.

You think someone's lock scum? Great! LYNCH HIM! You have a mechanically outed scum? Great! LYNCH HIM! Bird in the hand today, and whatever birds lying in the bushes you want to chase tomorrow are tomorrow's problems.
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Post Post #103 (isolation #60) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:55 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Also it's not EXACTLY the same, but I do think something from my standard IC post is reasonably comparable to waht we've seen in this game:

Spoiler:
Spoiler: Game review of a poor town performance, by one of the winning mafia (CTR)
Colonel Thomas Rainsborough wrote:
So this wasn’t the most successful of towns. Mostly this was because it was insane. It took ill with anyone using logic and rather than letting data drive its conclusions it preferred to invent enticing conclusions and narratives and then make the evidence fit those pet theories. We were in some sort of weird perpetual confirmation bias world.
Again it took ill with anyone who objected. Of course, prominent townies will take much of the heat for this, but to be fair there was some mafia skill in fostering and harnessing this town insanity.
The major difference here is that it lacked people objecting to it that the rest of the town would then take ill with (also lacked scum effectively adding to the insanity, mostly because no real effort by scum has really been needed). Mild objections had popped up at times from oldwino and dogwatch (oldwino is practically a hero at this point for actually sticking to his guns to some degree on grey/thinkbig rather than allowing himself to go with the lazy thread flow)

And I really don't blame the two newbies (DW/OW) for any of this. AT ALL. They're supposed to have some basic level of competent support from their more experienced teammates, and said support has essentially failed to exist at all. Which is unfortunate for them, and just kind of unpleasant to watch from the sidelines as well.
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Post Post #105 (isolation #61) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:09 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

I think DW's comments are probably fair, if unfortunate. Hopefully she isn't completely turned off by the site form this or other games :(
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Post Post #106 (isolation #62) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:11 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

I think the idea that veterans are more concerned with winning / making plays compared to creating a healthy teaching atmosphere is probably very correct, FWIW. I personally think that everyone ought to be putting some empahsis into teaching and helping people learn (in dead chat in another game, someone commented that SEs shouldn't be teaching at all, and only ICs should, which in my mind is precisely wrong, and not just because most ICs don't care about teaching for the most part).
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Post Post #107 (isolation #63) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:35 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1224, mastina wrote:There are three viable scumteams with ChrisOrmie, and each of them is a strong possibility. ChrisOrmie flipping town eliminates them all, but does nothing to reduce the chances of a player being scum: oldwino, ThinkBig, and Alisae all lose one scumteam, and DogWatch continues to have one viable scumteam, meaning we still have four suspects come mylo.

Now admittedly. All of these make the assumption the lynched player flips town. This is quite the assumption to make. However, taking a precaution and assuming the worst-case scenario of a town flip is simply smart play when it comes to laying out possibilities and probabilities, as it allows you to lay out a plan which maximizes expected win value given the WORST possibilities. If instead the BEST possibilities turn out to be true (i.e., we get a scumflip), then a lot of this planning becomes superfluous.

Butyeah. This is the math explained. This is how you handle logistics in mafia games. This is probabilities, this is statistics, this is the logical aspect of the game: pure, simple number-crunching. By the numbers, an Alisae lynch gives us the best information. Alisae flips town, we literally eliminate almost all of the viable scumteams. Alisae flips scum, we lynched scum and have some flexibility in hunting viable teams. (Namely, that there are only three possible partners with a mislynch to spare, giving us two shots to hit scum in three slots, 66% odds in our favor just by random, and by doing interactions with flipped scum we can increase this even further.)
Just shameful. This logic ONLY makes any sense at all if somehow everyone is presuming mastina cannot be scum, which is ridiculous on the face of it since mastina is currently being wagoned. You ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS lynch the likeliest scum. Mastina actively choosing NOT to lynch the likeliest scum flies in the face of reason, and she's spewed out a giant word salad to justify her ridiculous position.
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Post Post #108 (isolation #64) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:36 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1225, ThinkBig wrote:I don't like how quickly the wagon on mastina formed and don't like Alisae's jump from me to mastina. Mastina's frustration feels town. Masina/Alisae is probably not a team.
THANK GOD that ThinkBig doesn't have the balls to scum-hammer here.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
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Post Post #109 (isolation #65) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:45 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1228, mastina wrote:(For what it's worth, I don't know how much mhsmith agrees or disagrees with me, but in the dead thread if he's commenting there he should be able to back me up here in that what I've said is more true than not in his opinion. I don't think he'd agree with everything I've said. But he should back me on MOST of what I've said because damn fucking straight I know what I am saying is true because that is experience gained from literally 200-300 games on this site alone. The place for logic in games is in dealing with interactions and noting their possibility or lack thereof. All other applications of logic are secondary.)
I agree that there are situations where the kind of analysis mastina is talking about is useful. I completely disagree that she's applying it appropriately, even ignoring that I know the correct answer.
In post 1229, mastina wrote:
In post 1145, Darklyn wrote:ChrisOrmie is basically sheeping Alisae like I suspected he would, lulz
^That.
THEN LYNCH HIM! :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm:
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #110 (isolation #66) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:58 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1232, mastina wrote:
In post 1148, Alisae wrote:
In post 1147, DogWatch wrote:do we actually know icy was attacked? could there have been no night action at all?
townslip and even if this isn't a townslip I don't see why scum would push this narative. Occam's Razor deduces that Icy was attacked rather then Scum pulling a no-kill gambit.
In post 1149, ChrisOrmie wrote:
In post 1147, DogWatch wrote:do we actually know icy was attacked? could there have been no night action at all?
No kill is bad for scum, and mod said BP wouldn't know if they'd been targeted or even if their 1-shotBP was gone. Pretty sure scum went after Icy last night.
While it is certainly a probability that there was in fact a shot at the BP last night, I find it down-right hilarious that these two players felt the absolute NEED to insist on this being true back to back to one another using near-identical wording.
This makes it LESS likely that they're teammates rather than more. Which just continues to support that idea that you should be lynching the scummiest half of the pair instead of "information" lynching.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #111 (isolation #67) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:08 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1235, mastina wrote:
In post 1153, ThinkBig wrote:Um...I don't see Chris sheeping Alisae. Am I missing something here?
Look at the names both players are pushing and just as importantly the REASONS and LOGIC behind said pushes.

The names have significant overlap, and the reasoning is nigh-identical.
Scum blatantly sheep each other like that fairly rarely (DS doing so in 1774 with Grey was a pretty interesting and unusual play, part of which I didn't think it was him). Which suggests that the prevailing worldview is wrong, which suggests a different approach is needed.

PS It's the day before MYLO. MAYBE you can screw around with info lynches on day 1, but on day 2 in a micro you need to hit scum. Full blast. So maximize your scum lynch probabilities.

PPS Chris has been fairly active, and completely blatantly watned to shut down Alisae vs ThinkBig. This means that a scum lynch of Chris provides a LOT of information (namely, that smith was utterly correct about RC/Grey being town/scum), which means that not only is his lynch optimal due to being scummy, it's also INCREDIBLY information-rich.

PPPS "How much do we learn from a TOWN flip" is just bad thinking. Minimizing the consequences of a mislynch is a SECONDARY consideration, with lynching scum being the PRIMARY consideration. Just basic theory there.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #112 (isolation #68) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:09 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1236, ThinkBig wrote:@mastina, thanks for that information. I did some browsing in the archives and found that day 1 scum lynches were more likely to result in a scum win than a town win.
1) bullshit
2) look at thinkbig doing absolutely nothing with that emotionally devoid observation
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #113 (isolation #69) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:32 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1245, DogWatch wrote:UNVOTE: mastina
until I can sort through these last couple pages
<3 :D
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #114 (isolation #70) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:45 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1247, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1246, mastina wrote:If that doesn't tell you my wagon is driven by scum, I don't know WHAT will.
I completely agree with this. The way Chris derailed Alisae's wagon and Alisae was quick to hop on to the wagon gives even more credibility to an Alisae/Chris scum team.
One MIGHT, if one cares to look, notice how ThinkBig has a STRONG preference not to lynch Chris. How ThinkBig talked to Alisae as if Alisae was town while trying to lynch him. How ThinkBig had very little interest in sorting the board, in giving substantive engagement, or in being villagery at all.
Let us all bow our heads and pray, nay, hope, that this gets noticed.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #115 (isolation #71) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:57 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1246, mastina wrote:...In the span of three fucking hours. THREE HOURS. You went from having an Alisae wagon at L-1. To having a mastina wagon at L-1. Three fucking hours. To have a reversal in the game.

If that doesn't tell you my wagon is driven by scum, I don't know WHAT will.
let's see what our scummies rising star has to say on the subject...
In post 108, Dwlee99 wrote:Are we seriously analyzing wagon speed to see if aero is town or not??
Baddddd
@newbies/learners: In the future, please don't use wagon speed arguments. Wagon speed is pretty fundamentally NAI and doesn't really mean much of anything, especially if it comes without substantive reasoning. For instance, "look at all of these empty hop ons", "look at this terrible reasoning", etc - THOSE can be meaningful analysis-wise. "It happened fast" doesn't actually mean anything for the most part.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #116 (isolation #72) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:25 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1248, mastina wrote:However, I also have about equal experience with ThinkBig. If ThinkBig acts a way I expect him to act as town (I think he is), then that townread is augmented. If ThinkBig acts in a way I expect him to as scum (I don't think he has), then that townread would be thrown into question. (There's also the fact that ThinkBig could easily have hammered me if he were scum, and receive virtually no flak for it, so. That, too.)
I cannot possibly imagine what mastina thinks that ThinkBig would be doing as town that coincides with what he has actually been doing.

Other than transparently useless posts (of which there are many), you have gems like
In post 1107, ThinkBig wrote:I see Alisae is at L-2. What is the case on Alisae?
Null at absolute best (good town would actually bother to look up the case, or engage with people who are pushing Alisae, or do SOMETHING to try and solve; lazy town could post this though so it's basically null)
In post 1138, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1137, mastina wrote:
In post 1113, ThinkBig wrote:Welcome Christ
Can I just comment on how appropriate this comment is with your Amish avatar?
It is actually Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson, the Rebbe of the Chabad movement. And I meant Chris, not Christ. I hate auto wreck.

Anyway I am still reading the game and should have content to produce tomorrow.
Said content never really came. SHOCKING.
In post 1151, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1135, mastina wrote:To be honest. This is actually my stance right now. The lemonator slot is actually a larger scumread than Alisae. I think Alisae is scum, but I'm not absolutely sure; I'm pretty damn sure that lemonator's slot is scum.
If you are more confident in Chris' slot being scum, why are you voting for Alisae over him?
Just about the one and only time there's a suggestion of a potential opportunistic hop towards chris (making them less likely). The relatively empty theory question is debatably ThinkBig's BEST contribution to the thread to date, despite it's just a question that doesn't bother saying anything about what HE thinks (tho there's an implication here of preferring a chris to alisae lynch)

Theory question
: Is it better to lynch a player who is more likely to flip scum or a player who's flip would be more informative to town?
In post 1152, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1130, Alisae wrote:Yeah I believe scum!Grey would get into a fight with RC
I've played several games with Grey/RC. They always seem to get into some sort of fight regardless of alignment. Hell, I even get into fights with Grey/RC.
No real opinion or substance here.
In post 1153, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1145, Darklyn wrote:ChrisOrmie is basically sheeping Alisae like I suspected he would, lulz
Um...I don't see Chris sheeping Alisae. Am I missing something here?
Ignoring obvious context, along with a clear intention to defend chris
In post 1155, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1081, DogWatch wrote:There's also something to be said for the ulti/pieg/lemon slot being replaced AGAIN.
I would agree with this if this wasn't a newbie game. In Newbie 1746, for example, there was a slot that had 3 people replace out. That slot flipped town jailkeeper.
VERY CLEAR intention to defend chris. He's working to defray attention away from that slot. NO ONE noticed this. Also in terms of productive substance it's entirely defense-oriented, which is much more natural scum behavior. Also "ooh this counter-example happened that one time" is a substance-less objection. Mastina's poitn is that it makes it LIKELY that chris is scum, TB just effectively says "well yeah but it's not certain".
In post 1156, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1136, mastina wrote:
In post 1083, Icy wrote:It seems to me that the town learns so much more from a Alisae flip than a Lemon flip.
This is also true though, since the slot hasn't produced actual content basically all game. The closest was pieg, and even there, not really much. pieg asked lots of questions, but didn't really do much with them. (The closest we get is casting shade on oldwino, which reduces the chance of the newbie-scumteam. Also, looks like pieg knew oldwino was town.)
I disagree with your interpretation of this post. HOWEVER, I will say that it is quite telling that he says that lurking is anti-town behavior and then requests a replacement.
Wishy-washy, no meat at all to the post.
In post 1157, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1148, Alisae wrote:
In post 1147, DogWatch wrote:do we actually know icy was attacked? could there have been no night action at all?
townslip and even if this isn't a townslip I don't see why scum would push this narative.
Occam's Razor deduces that Icy was attacked rather then Scum pulling a no-kill gambit.
I have to agree with you here.
Empty +1.
In post 1158, ThinkBig wrote:Dogwatch is my top town read right now. I would like to try and sort ChrisOrmie, mastina, and alisae. I like Chris' entrance, though I was not a big fan of what I saw from some of his predecessors.
Sheeps the consensus about the #1 town. Says he wants to sort chris/mastina/alisae, says he likes chris while hedging
In post 1163, ThinkBig wrote:Alisae, why am I scum?
nothing post
In post 1165, ThinkBig wrote:VOTE: Alisae
empty vote
In post 1175, ThinkBig wrote:Nice shades. I actually miscounted and thought I put you at L-2.
Anyway what is your case against Grey/My slot?
demands alisae produce a case against his slot (as if that hadn't already happened)
In post 1177, ThinkBig wrote:Can you point those out and why you think it is scum aligned opportunistic?
demands someone else do work, no substance here either
In post 1178, ThinkBig wrote:You came in here and admitted the only thing you bothered to read was Grey's ISO. It seems like you were hell bent on tunneling on Grey before you even came in.
accuses Alisae of being biased and exhibiting unethical OOG behavior. Also this comes from a "you're town" perspective WHILE HE IS VOTING HIM
In post 1182, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 978, Alisae wrote:Staaaawp.
Grey is going to get townread as either alignment majority of the time. One of the things about his scumgame is A. He hates playing scum and B. Either way his game is going to be clean.
There's a contradiction here. You are saying that you are confident that Grey/my slot is scum, yet you are saying that his game is going to be clean. How do those two possibly connect?
Minor point at absolute best. The obvious implication here is "Grey plays scum well but I can read him" which is of course more or less exactly what Alisae answers. It's a transparently lazy question that answers itself, along with an explicit accusation of a contradiction when it's pretty transparent no contradiction exists.
In post 1185, ThinkBig wrote:Alisae, if you're actually town, then you really need to pull out of your tunnel and confirmation bias. Did you learn anything from Witch Trial's Mafia? The TVT bullshit from you and dreal cost town the game. I'm not having a repeat of that here.
"We're TvT" Given the context of TB voting Alisae, this is a SUPER scummy post. Also amusing that mastina picks up on this from Chris, but not from TB, but she seems to be incredibly weak to conf!bias and ossified opinions so *shrugs*
In post 1188, ThinkBig wrote:Um you were death tunneling me at twilight 1 and from what I recall, you still TR'd Grey even after his god awful hammer.
"You're being bad town" once again
In post 1202, ThinkBig wrote:Mastina is at L-1
empty observation, does nothing with it
In post 1225, ThinkBig wrote:I don't like how quickly the wagon on mastina formed and don't like Alisae's jump from me to mastina. Mastina's frustration feels town. Masina/Alisae is probably not a team.
wagon speed is a bad argument. defends mastina but doesn't really DO anything about it. weak objection to a L-1 wagon, the sort of thing that would never convince anyone to actually move off the wagon, just a "well I oppose it" nearly empty stance
In post 1230, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1229, mastina wrote:
In post 1145, Darklyn wrote:ChrisOrmie is basically sheeping Alisae like I suspected he would, lulz
^That.
Where is the sleeping? Him sheeping would have been him voting me, not him voting you and Formica new wagon
Objects to the push against chris. Funny how often this happens :lol:
In post 1236, ThinkBig wrote:@mastina, thanks for that information. I did some browsing in the archives and found that day 1 scum lynches were more likely to result in a scum win than a town win.
1) this is probably bullshit
2) who cares? he isn't doing a damn thing with this observation
In post 1242, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1241, mastina wrote:So are you a fucking hypocrite, or just opportunistic scum willing to drop literally everything about Grey just because it's convenient?
^^ This. So much this.
I really hate how Alisae's wagon got derailed and how your wagon got to L-1 in less than 4 hours.
Sheeps mastina's objection on wagon speed, doesn't actually DO anything with that, including, you know, SORTING the people on her wagon
In post 1244, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1243, Alisae wrote:
In post 1241, mastina wrote:
In post 1201, Alisae wrote:VOTE: mastina
If I can't get the Grey slot, I'll go get mastina.
Hey Alisae.
You placed this L-1 vote, yes?
In post 1174, Alisae wrote:You still would have pointed out it was L-1.
So are you a fucking hypocrite, or just opportunistic scum willing to drop literally everything about Grey just because it's convenient?
No, I'm saying TB does that. AKA that's apart of his meta.
I usually don't do that stuff.
1. I put you at L-2. Not L-1.
2. I really hate using meta because it can be easily manipulated and exploited.
1) Who cares. Factual objection that doesn't really matter
2) Empty objection, doesn't do anything with it other than objecting to Alisae's usage of it
In post 1247, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1246, mastina wrote:If that doesn't tell you my wagon is driven by scum, I don't know WHAT will.
I completely agree with this. The way Chris derailed Alisae's wagon and Alisae was quick to hop on to the wagon gives even more credibility to an Alisae/Chris scum team.
Likes an Alisae/Chris team, while pushing against any shade on chris, and making numerous posts suggesting that Alisae is simply bad/biased town.

This is seriously not hard. And I have not the slightest clue what mastina expects from town!TB that somehow she thinks she is seeing here
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #117 (isolation #73) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:44 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1252, mastina wrote:I do admit, I have neglected to directly engage Darklyn (though that's honestly largely because I feel he doesn't need much help)
:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #118 (isolation #74) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:52 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1253, mastina wrote:
In post 1237, mastina wrote:Siteflaking is null.
Requesting replacement with no justification is--while not a strong indicator of scum--at the very least, sketchy coming from newbies. (This is a newbie-specific tell.)
Yo, mhsmith
, you're the stat nerd.
I'd actually be quite interested in whether what I say here is actually objectively true, but it'd require you to manually track each and every reason for a given slot replacement (not to mention, manually tracking if the holder of the slot is a newbie since this is a newbie-specific tell) which I'm not sure how easy/hard it'd be, but if it's something you
could
do, I'd love to know whether what I'm saying here is backed by hard evidence rather than just personal experience. (Basically it's something that my gut tells me is true: flaking from the game is null, but requesting replacement if a newbie is >random scum.)
Don't need spoiler here: replacement rate is objectively higher among scum players, see spreadsheet at
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=39739.

Player Slots Replaced Players Replaced Total Slots Slot Rate Player Rate
Town Nb 660 787 1740 37.9% 45.2%
Scum Nb 209 272 482 43.4% 56.4%
Town SE 190 209 798 23.8% 26.2%
Scum SE 61 68 236 25.8% 28.8%
Town IC 32 35 311 10.3% 11.3%
Scum IC 15 15 96 15.6% 15.6%

So scum newbies have an objectively higher rates of slots replacing out, and an EVEN HIGHER rate of having multiple replace outs of the same slot (some noise since sometimes the 2nd/3rd etc holder of a newbie slot is not a newbie but with a large sample size, that SHOULD be simple statistical noise).

THAT SAID, it's a pretty squick and cheap/angleshooting way to solve, since it kind of fucks over someone who /ins to replace just because of a higher likelihood of scum among newbie replace slots. For instance, MU as a sitewide policy strongly discourages to outright bans discussion of replacing as a basis for reads, essentially for that very reason. And by "bans" I mean "there are games where you can get modkilled for using the fact that a slot was replaced as a basis to scumread someone"
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #119 (isolation #75) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:53 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Now, what mastina ACTUALLY asked is about the reason-specific rate, but there's no hard data on that since it's not tracked, and I doin't actually care enough about that to do the presumably arduous work involved in tracking it. But yes, the replace rate itself is SOMEWHAT AI (unfortunately).
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #121 (isolation #76) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:04 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In fairness I'm spoiled, but GEEZ this isn't a hard game :(
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #123 (isolation #77) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:34 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
Basically. I mean I diagnosed her as badtown like mid day one, for someone who theoretically cared about my opinion you'd THINK she'd be embarrassed at that and actually WORK to be better but obv that's not something that's a priority for her unfortunately.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #125 (isolation #78) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:06 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

I think that mastina would probably do a decent job MODDING newbie games and talking about things and giving good advice postgame. I think that she's good at analyzing things when she knows the answers, but I think that she's much less good dealing with an environment of uncertainty and educated guesswork. I think balancing regular game play and ICing is, at least based on this game, not a strength of hers unfortunately. That said there are few ICs on site who I'd say are GOOD (Thor, nacho, and :?: :?: :?: :?: :?: - and neither of them IC mass amounts like they used to), and it's not like she can't look at this games failure and potentially learn from it.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #129 (isolation #79) » Fri Mar 24, 2017 5:40 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1256, Alisae wrote:Dog townslipped like 20 times I really don't see how you aren't TRing that slot.
Well, there IS one pretty obvious potential explanation :lol:
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #131 (isolation #80) » Fri Mar 24, 2017 10:00 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 130, pieg wrote:
Spoiler:
heroic wagon push by oldwino!!!!!!!!
+1
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BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
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SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #132 (isolation #81) » Sun Mar 26, 2017 5:23 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Hopefully this is a good replacement. Blawb replaced a scum slot in 1753 and I thought did a decent job picking up the pieces after his team had already collapsed, and at least avoided a town sweep.
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SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #135 (isolation #82) » Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:28 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1302, mastina wrote:
In post 1260, Icy wrote:Ready for the metric fuckton of good content
Ah well, I never did understand the metric system. but I thought a "fuckton" would be more. In any case it was good enough for Mastina.
You should try isoing ThinkBig.

The thing about ThinkBig is that every time he gives content, it is more or less: good. It is what I was expecting. It is what I wanted. It is what I would think would be town.

But the thing about ThinkBig is also that his content is sporadic. You say there isn't content present, but there is. It's just a little bit inconsistent in its presence--stronger in some areas, much much much much much weaker in others.

So ThinkBig simultaneously
has
delivered the content I demanded...
...And
hasn't
delivered the content I demanded.
So no. It's not clearly good enough for me. It's weakly okay. It's good enough for me to not turbo-lynch ThinkBig--but it's not good enough for me to clear ThinkBig. I want to give him more time. Not to establish footing. But more, well honestly, give myself the time. To think about it. And maybe see more clearly definitive proof one side or another.

So I would still prefer not to lynch ThinkBig today.
I would still prefer to wait there a bit longer.
Not a single one of thinkbig's posts were good. Not one. I cannot fathom how in the world mastina could have come tot he conclusion his content was good if she had actually been reading and critically evaluating him. My guess is that she skimmed, saw he was posting stuff, and simply assumed his content was good because she had a pre-existing town read on the slot.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #136 (isolation #83) » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:56 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1322, oldwino wrote:I was prodded too. Trying to wait out Mastina's response to my criticism of TB and seeing whether she'd vote him or at least start to lean a little scummy on him. She says he's posted enough real content to keep her off his wagon, but is not convinced he is town, wants to give him more time. I still don't see it, I still think TB is holding back, and is now proposing a scum team of newbies to explain away the N action against Icy instead of Dark (two of his newbie scum teams include me, his long-time and consistent vote). Except for this recent post, I still think TB is mostly lurking, keeping his head down, and is now trying to turn the tables on me. But, I won't stay on his wagon for much longer if I don't get any more support. I'll spend my time instead figuring out where to move my vote, that is who is my #2 scum read now.

Is there any support out there for a Grey/TB wagon? Last call.
Another couple of hours and I'll move my vote if we don't take Grey/TB to L2 at least.
oldwino is being flat-out abandoned by the town, really sad to see
In post 1323, Alisae wrote:If it gets moving again, I'll put my vote back.
Just awful. Take some damn ownership of the game state! He's your top scum! Someone else is trying to get him lynched! Give a damn!
In post 1324, Alisae wrote:Guyz TB's vote on me is pure OMGUS.
He recognizes I'm tunneling yet apparently I'm scum so.....
"he's super scum but I'm not going to take any ownership in driving his wagon" - this is, fwiw, the kind of laziness around sorting/lynching TB that I'd expect from a scum when TB is town. Alisae and mastina are BOTH taking generically scummy approaches to the game state, and are being wagoned in substantial part due to this.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #137 (isolation #84) » Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:02 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
In post 1308, mastina wrote:
In post 1282, oldwino wrote:It's been a couple of days and he hasn't said anything of substance yet.
Not so! His iso is actually full of content. Thus, not voting him.

However, it's less than what I was hoping for.
Thus, not strongly going out of my way to save him! :P

At this stage I won't
help
you wagon ThinkBig.
I also won't
hinder
you on ThinkBig.
This will remain until he tips the scales.
Basically a wishy-washy non-opinion. Notably, mastina is "coming around" to the possibility of ThinkBig being scum while vote parking on Alisae, who is not actually mastina's top scum (that's Chris). Her positions here don't jive at all with her vote in any reasonable manner (the unreasonable manner in which they tie together is the "information lynch" concept, which townies should basically never ever use, in part because it's a ridiculously easy concept for scum to hide their insincere votes behind, which then makes lynches LOWER information rather than higher). Mastina's approach here is (as with Alisae) generically scummy, and is actually consistent with how you might expect scum to behave in any number of scenarios. I don't think she realizes this at all, which is pretty unfortunate.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #139 (isolation #85) » Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:33 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Ironically...

Spoiler:
Blawb burying his vote on a relative obvtown where the wagon will almost certainly go absolutely nowhere may actually be helpful to town, especially if he gets gravitationally pulled towards voting ThinkBig, and I think given his stated positions, he's likely to be pretty open to voting TB with any kind of decent push in that direction (which HOPEFULLY alisae provides here)
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #140 (isolation #86) » Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:42 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1328, Blawb wrote:The mhsmith lynch was: mastina, DogWatch, Darklyn, RC, Grey

There's at least 1 scum on this Lynch, maybe 2. I read RC, mastina, and Darklyn (me) as town, which leaves me with DogWatch and Grey.
Spoiler:
Regardless of the actual alignments of everyone, this is generically poor thinking. IN GENERAL, you'd expect exactly one scum on a d1 lynch to be reasonably likely, but there are MANY games where it's zero or two, and there's no particular reason to think that the wagon was especially scum-driven, unless the actual in-game data said it was (instead, it looks like Blawb is simply ASSUMING it was due to an overly simplistic concept of wagonomics / VCA)
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #141 (isolation #87) » Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:07 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1331, DogWatch wrote:
In post 1322, oldwino wrote:I still think TB is mostly lurking, keeping his head down, and is now trying to turn the tables on me. But, I won't stay on his wagon for much longer if I don't get any more support. Is there any support out there for a Grey/TB wagon?
I don't see all the TB content mastina is referring to either. But who do you think we learn more from? A TB flip or a mastina flip?
Spoiler:
Image
So this is almost entirely NOT dogwatch's fault by the way. A board mentality of allowing "information" lynches to be acceptable voting behavior is behind this, and that lies at the feet of the veterans who should know better (alisae, thinkbig and especially mastina who is supposed to be teaching people good theory instead of bad theory). But it's really frustrating to watch from dead thread :(
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #142 (isolation #88) » Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:32 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1333, Alisae wrote:VOTE: ThinkBig

Blawb come join me on TB.
You DO scumread him after all.
Spoiler:
Image

Also as a substantive note, this (if it actually goes through) is in substantial part due to ThinkBig not hammering mastina when he had the chance. As the saying goes, "He who hesitates is lost"
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #146 (isolation #89) » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:22 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Lol was funny to see :lol:
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BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #148 (isolation #90) » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:26 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 147, pieg wrote:great minds think alike XDXDXDXD

Spoiler:
mastina's posting has also improved continually over the course of this game fwiw
Spoiler:
it'll probably have to get a LOT better for her to survive after the thinkbig flip. I think I can see some improvement, but I think her whole treatment of tb is sketchy and surface level VERY consistent w his scumbuddy (clearing herself from his flip, while trying for anyone but him, and getting wispy-washy on him after there was momentum his way)
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #149 (isolation #91) » Tue Mar 28, 2017 5:14 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1356, Icy wrote:Scum (because they already know who everyone is) really only have one job on day one, FIND PRS.
Spoiler:
This is very wrong fwiw. Scum's job is to get townies lynched. Their SECONDARY job is to find PRs.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #150 (isolation #92) » Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:47 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1358, ChrisOrmie wrote:Grey did some things that made me suspicious that he was scum, however there are more than a few posts that are highly town motivated from the slot too. It's either scum gambiting like mad, or town that wasn't paying attention to the game. I've not seen a lot of their games, but Ali was convinced the slot was scum, and TB's play is not improving my opinion one bit. I still see the slot as shady and wouldn't be opposed to seeing their flip, but Mastina is the one I am reluctant to let go of. I feel she's too good a player to give time to.

@oldwino I was townleaning on RC, and Ali's only improved the slot imo. Highly doubt that he's scum. I was worried it was confbias as I usually read RC as town (and just played with town-Ali where he was very similar to this game) but ISOs do nothing to make me suspect the slot.
In post 1325, Blawb wrote:VOTE: DogWatch

I went through DogWatch's ISO, and can say with confidence that he is more concerned looking townie than helping the town.
I get a similar feeling but didn't think it was AI, but do you think this is more indicative of scum than newbie - if so, why?
Spoiler:
Practically a confession of being scum with ThinkBig. Hedges like crazy on the actual TB read, while continuing to push for mastina to be lynched first for bullshit reasons (OMG she's a good player can't give her time! :lol: ). Were he scum with non-TB, he'd almost certainly be more objectively open to the possibility of flipping and would be figuring out how he can get the alternative TB wagon pushed through.

It saddens me that no one still alive is able to see how obvious both scum are being right now (it's fairly obvious to me that mastina either lacks the energy to look at and think this through, or just lacks the judgement/experience to see what ought to be fairly compelling on the very surface for someone with a decent amount of experience scum-hunting)
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #151 (isolation #93) » Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:09 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1359, Icy wrote:Yes. Mastina is still my strongest scum read.

No need to go over day 1 again, but on Day 2 Alisae entered the game post to a slot Mastina and I were both town reading. Three hours later Mastina voted Alisae.

Three....Hours....Into...Day....Two.

Not exactly giving him much time to get established, like she was willing to do with Thinkbig.

Enter Chris who attacks her and now Mastina says the scum team is Alisae and Chris, and there is no way in hell that is the scum team.
Spoiler:
Unfortunately "bad" (even "really really really bad") and "scum" are not the same thing. This entire read is essentially "mastina is too awful to be town", when in fact it's basically the opposite; actual scum almost always aren't as transparently bad as she's been.
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Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #152 (isolation #94) » Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:50 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1360, Blawb wrote:Still staying on DogWatch, sorry guys.
We all mostly agree that DW is scummy;
the only argument here is that we might be mistaking scuminess for newb-ness. I don't like that argument, because I still think that DW's main focus is appearing town - more so than helping the town. Even newer players would have the tone of wanting to Lynch someone / help the town, but I'm really not seeing that in DW.
Spoiler:
basically no one agrees w that actually
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SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #153 (isolation #95) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:00 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1361, mastina wrote:IC note: this is borderline against site rules as we have rules against trust tells and also rules stating you must play to your wincon--deliberately sabotaging one alignment for the sake of another violates those standards. Never ever do that. EVER.
Spoiler:
Yes, from now on only UNINTENTIONALLY sabatoge your wincon as a specific alignment :P
In post 1362, mastina wrote:
In post 1312, Icy wrote:And your right again, my perspective is from town (why do you think that is). Yet your perspective is from scum (thank you for admitting that). Why is your perspective not from town?
About that. Remember what I said in my opening post?
In post 48, mastina wrote:My view on the game is impossible to succinctly summarize, but basically I see it as a social game focusing largely on psychology, with some logistics/statistics, balancing possibilities versus probabilities.
One quirk I have is viewing every player simultaneously as town and scum. I view each possibility, and then I weigh them, to determine probability. Which makes more sense? I set guidelines. I'll see each player as town and scum in a given moment, by the balance of probability.
...An extension of this is that I don't think in just one perspective.

I think in
every
perspective.
I have to think of EVERY mathematical combination, and I do.
I run the math on literally every possible scumteam.
Inherent in this process, is that I have to think like scum, in order to determine how likely that scum pairing would be: "how likely would it be for this scumteam to act in the way we have seen them act in-thread?" And applied to every team. Then further entering the picture is the opposite side. "How likely would it be for this player to be town acting this way?" I literally think in every possibility.

So it's not that I think in terms of town.
Or think in terms of scum.
It's that I think in terms of
everything
. Literally everything. Not just one side. ALL sides. Literally every fucking single one of them.
FWIW, I don't think it's possible to have reads as ossified and lazy as mastina has had in this game while actually doing this. Pretty sure mastina is just lying to herself about her process here. Also pretty sure the board will interpret it as her lying to them instead, since on the surface it very much seems like that's what she's doing here.
In post 1363, mastina wrote:
In post 1321, Alisae wrote:Even if I was scum, my buddy isn't going to directly help push my wagon. Just sayin.
True enough, though it's not mutual...

:P

Which reminds me. Now that it's over, I can share with you that I've known Alisae was scum in this game since March 16th. I suspected (and as of March 15th, knew) Grey was town in that same game. So literally from the
moment
D2 began, I have had a very recent encounter with Alisae as scum and Grey as town and that was and still is influencing my read.
This is one of those times where actually explaining the read would be helpful. Being as opaque as humanly possible, in addition to being explicitly against IC guidelines, also means that town!Alisae is going to be MORE inclined to push against mastina for being full of shit (and scum!Alisae has a decent incentive to do the same), which means that, just as on day one, mastina is doing things that make it MORE difficult to figure out whether people are town or scum based on how they deal with her.
In post 1365, mastina wrote:
In post 1334, Alisae wrote:btw we have 3 days do decide on a deadline lynch.
I have my eye on the deadline, and believe me, I make sure that I am around at the time of it or hammer before the time of it. However, that is the only circumstance in which I will actually vote ThinkBig: to hammer before deadline.

Though, to be honest.
I'd kinda expect ThinkBig to self-hammer regardless of his alignment, just with the timing/circumstances/reasoning differing.
Just like mastina was around EOD1 :lol:
I'm actually going to just post a bunch of lol's the rest of the way if she no-shows EOD2 like she did EOD1 and then afterwards gives a wall that boils down to "I was watching but decided I didn't feel like participating"
In post 1367, mastina wrote:
In post 1359, Icy wrote:Not exactly giving him much time to get established, like she was willing to do with Thinkbig.
Different players, different reads, different expectations, different circumstances, different timing. Take your pick, because all five apply.

For instance, Alisae had a chance to read the game during the night.
ThinkBig did not.
Enter Chris who attacks her and now Mastina says the scum team is Alisae and Chris,
and there is no way in hell that is the scum team
.
I think you have a timing problem. I noted my issues with Chris before he was Chris.
The substantive issue discussed by Icy here is that Alisae/Chris doens't make sense as a team. Mastina completely dodges this point that Icy is VERY OBVIOUSLY making here because she doens't want to mentally engage with it. Instead she merely addresses the timing point, which was transparently the LESSER of his two points while dodging the hell out of the GREATER of the two points he was making. That's objectively a scum post by her fwiw.
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Post Post #154 (isolation #96) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:19 am

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In post 1385, Blawb wrote:The fact that the only two cleared townies (myself and Icy from lack of CC) are off the wagon should say something.
My money is on oldwino and DogWatch, which could very well be a scum pair from what I've read
. I'm willing to Lynch either of them, but mastina and TB are off the table.
Spoiler:
Sigh...
I mean, the fact that two cleared townies are off the wagon generically makes it SLIGHTLY more likely that it's scum-driven, but it's an incredibly weak source of reasoning, almost totally decoupled from the details of what is happening and why. Positing an oldwino/dogwatch scum team is just awful reasoning, and the only thing at all supporting it is that mastina suspected them both day 1, which is once again terrible reasoning, since she never actually had any good reason to suspect them (just a bunch of bad reasons).
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Post Post #156 (isolation #97) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:55 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler:
It's ok, shit happens. That said, I'm kind of sick of eating a bunch of losses that I don't especially deserve, but that seems to be like the essential definition of my town meta (IIRC I've described it somewhere as "Town MVP in a losing town" and I don't know I'd go quite that high here, but my mislynch was pretty idiotic [and driven by two VI's, darklyn and mastina], and my dying reads were exceptionally on track [behavioral POE of RC and the two scum on day one is very solid even if my team constructions were off]). That I'm somehow STILL above .500 in town win rate on site is I think amazing given the sheer scale of ridiculous losses that I've eaten (of which this won't even crack the top five most likely).
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Post Post #158 (isolation #98) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:50 am

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In post 1387, ChrisOrmie wrote:Intent to put TB at L-1.
Spoiler:
:roll:
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Post Post #160 (isolation #99) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:55 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

I feel like in the future...

Spoiler:
I'll probably just point to this game any time I'm wagoned early game as a "here's what happens if you get rid of smith" :lol:

I can also point to the game where it was effectively 8v1 nightless (8v2 to start, but day 1 was a scum lynch and a mechanic made it nearly impossible to NK after first scum lynch), town "fuck you" lynched me (basically I wasn't nice enough to someone who was SUPER thin-skinned and yelled a lot), then decided to get rid of two of my three locktown reads (all were correct), while giving a lazy town read to the last scum for something not hard to fake, and managed to actually LOSE that game

The chronicle of "how the hell did this happen to me" town losses is long and probably a lot funnier to hear about for someone who didn't actually suffer through all of them :P
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Post Post #162 (isolation #100) » Thu Mar 30, 2017 3:35 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1388, Icy wrote:Obviously my preferred lynch today is Mastina. I believe Thinkbig will flip town. Not only that but it's possible Mastina has been lining up his flip for town credit the whole game. Thinkbigs lack of participation is questionable, other than that I just don't see it.

Alisae is town because RC was town.

Chris is town. I don't even remember who was in the slot before Pieg, but he was town, Pieg was town, Lemon was town until he left the game (that was a bit questionable) but his posts read town to me.

That leaves me with a Mastina partner of Dog, or OW.

Either could be her Scum buddy. This is my third game, and the first two were won by scum teams consisting of a newb player who played exactly like Dog has this game. Both got town credit for townslips from the veteran players. Given that, my gut still tells me Dog is town and the other scum is OW. He has been driving the train for TB sense the start of the day. He does post LAMIST often, and (in my view) at least subconsciously hinted both his top reads would flip town. He has also held on to the RC/Grey scum team well past it's expiration. Town OW would not be pushing that scum team.
Spoiler:
"I think this person is town. I think this other person is scum. To hell with explaining why"

That standard of communication is utterly unacceptable by any town player. That it's happening at all is I think a function if the bad example that has been set for the newbies by people who should theoretically know better. I don't particularly think I was guilty of it, but if I was then I apologize.
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Post Post #163 (isolation #101) » Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:14 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1393, Icy wrote:But you see she didn't disappear at the end of D1 as a matter of fact she already posted that she came online right as grey hammered.
Spoiler:
This is not what she said (not that it's hugely indicative either way):
In post 960, mastina wrote:
In post 924, oldwino wrote:She hasn't posted now in several days and I'm surprised she hasn't replaced out as well.
I posted Tuesday.
The lynch happened on Wednesday. Literally seconds before I logged on. (Well, the hammer happened prior to that, but I saw the thread was unlocked when I was logged off. I logged in, and by the time I got to the thread, the thread was locked. If you're interested, you can check the time of Huntress posting the final VC for the day, and my sitewide activity around that point. Prior to the lock, my last post was basically a full day ago. After the lock, I almost immediately was posting elsewhere, because I was intending to post
here
, was prevented from doing so, and went on to do my other sitewide activity chores.)

If you are interested in the exact specifics, I was reading the thread while offline (something I don't often do, but sometimes will for various reasons equally beneficial to both alignments), and I was noticing mhsmith towntelling left and right. I wanted to make a post where I acknowledged him doing so, but keeping my vote on him for two main reasons--one, doubting an extension would be granted with him as literally the only viable lynch. And two, wanting to have him confirmed as town rather than simply probable town.

In that same post, I was going to request that mhsmith give essentially a summary of his most up-to-date thoughts, so I wouldn't have to read between the lines and sift through all of his posting to figure out his reads with perfect clarity and accuracy. (I instead settled for asking the mod to convey essentially that same message to him, including an apology for the unfortunate clash and lamenting the lack of him towntelling earlier because if he had done what he did in the middle of the day rather than at the end of the day I most certainly WOULD have unvoted.)

Of course, none of my reasons here are verifiable until postgame (for instance, an alternative viewpoint you
could
argue is that I was scum intentionally lurking, and specifically waited to log in until it was too late, even though that is a tactic I would NEVER stoop so low as to use as a scum IC because it is teaching a bad practice), but the timing itself is very easily verified. Just look at where I was posting and when. There were no contemporary posts on Wednesday, the day of the lynch, prior to the lynch; there were posts on Wednesday, the day of the lynch, literally minutes after the lynch had happened.
In fact, mastina openly admitted to strategically lurking, but put a "I did it for the sake of the town" bow on it (this dressing up of her behavior is suss as hell fwiw). "I was going to participate, but then decided not to bother and instead have the mod apologize for my end of the clash, and oh by the way his mislynch was still his own fault mainly".
I wanted to make a post where I acknowledged him doing so, but keeping my vote on him for two main reasons--one, doubting an extension would be granted with him as literally the only viable lynch. And two, wanting to have him confirmed as town rather than simply probable town.
^
That in particular is just apalling and debatably worth a policy lynch by itself.
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Post Post #164 (isolation #102) » Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:44 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1402, Blawb wrote:This sums it up for me, minus the mastina part. If town can narrow it down to {mastina, oldwino, DogWatch}, and everyone pretty much agree on that, I'll lynch mastina today. I'll be watching this thread - if that's the decision you guys want to make, give me hammer and I'll get it done.
Spoiler:
yes, yes, lets all narrow it down to a POE entirely of smiths town reads. Even better, let's do it just because of gut and feels. Even better, let's do this while the actual scum are outing he selves in the thread. Sometimes I truly wonder why I even bother.
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Post Post #165 (isolation #103) » Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:58 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1402, Blawb wrote:Although I think it's slightly scummy to not even support someone you read as town, this is what mastina would do as town. The games I've read show that mastina acts scummier when town, and acts townier when scum. I still believe that she is town, but I'm willing to Lynch her if it pushes oldwino and DogWatch into the center stage.
Spoiler:
Once again you get a toxic mess by enabling bullshit "information" lynches. It's no wonder at all that town is making terrible decisions when an environment of utter mush has not just been enabled but ENCOURAGED by people who should 100% know better. How can ANYONE (barring people who have god-tier reading ability) effectively scum-hunt in this environment where there's no accountability for anything people say or do? Mastina is about 80% to blame for this, but it's also a board-wide failure.
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SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #166 (isolation #104) » Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:29 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1406, ChrisOrmie wrote:
In post 1404, Blawb wrote:I really don't like where my top two scum reads are in relationship to this wagon. I hope I'm wrong and mastina is scum, but I doubt it.

Intent to hammer.


Going after oldwino and DogWatch tomorrow, right guys? That was the deal...
TB/Wino/Dog for me tomorrow right now, but out of the three I'd rather have TB. Have to see if TB actually posts anything good, or the flip/nk tells us anything fun, before I know where I'm going to push the most tomorrow.
Spoiler:
Obvious distancing is obvious
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Post Post #167 (isolation #105) » Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:39 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1408, oldwino wrote:Chris, if TB is your top scum read, why didn't you join that wagon and take him to L1?
Spoiler:
OK question by wino, even if in this case the answer is "he's my top scum other than mastina"
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Post Post #168 (isolation #106) » Thu Mar 30, 2017 6:55 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1410, mastina wrote:Apologies for the delay.
I was busy ending one of my other games, which required devoting a significant amount of my time to, and also just as importantly, sitewide NOT devoting time to games. (As in, if I was spending time on this game when I had the need to spend time on that game, it would have been very visible and bad for that game, so my activity across all games has been suffering since waiting for that game to conclude.)

I will be able to talk more extensively when I get an official mod announcement the game has ended, so please hold for about an hour or two.
Spoiler:
"i was strategically lurking in ANOTHER game therefore decided to do so here too."
Also firebringer already announced game end, and had done so before this post was made.
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Post Post #172 (isolation #107) » Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:04 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Town has... a 5% chance? And it's sad since scum is playing badly too.
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Post Post #173 (isolation #108) » Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:59 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Mastina prioritizing postgame talk from her scum win over participating in this game when it's like 12 hours to EOD and she's l-1 and she's the IC is I think typical of her investment in this game. I say this knowing that I've actually been talking to her there and that she will very likely see this soon but not caring about a game this close to deadline as an IC is not ok, even if it's technically not against the rules.
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Post Post #175 (isolation #109) » Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:58 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

If there's just one thing RC approves of and enjoys, it's being hard tunneled due to generic paranoia of his scum game :lol:
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Post Post #176 (isolation #110) » Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:45 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1446, Blawb wrote:
In post 1442, ThinkBig wrote:If no one else is around at deadline, then I will hammer. Mastina is far from my first choice for a lynch, but it is better than no lynch!
This post makes me mad.
Spoiler:
Gee, maybe he did it because he's scum!
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Post Post #178 (isolation #111) » Fri Mar 31, 2017 7:13 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

I'd give town about a 5% chance here. This game has been incredibly painful to watch, I guess at least it'll be over soon.
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Post Post #181 (isolation #112) » Fri Mar 31, 2017 10:58 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

FWIW I think I'm generally decent at reading RC. Not an expert by MS standards, but overall competent on that front.

Spoiler:
I POE'd down to RC (who basically wasn't doing anything, and I'd essentially had him as null, I think correctly fwiw, even if I was a bit reachy in associating him with lemon) and the two scum. I can't look at my reads this game and think they were anything other than good, or be anything other than unhappy at being almost entirely ignored (except when mastina decided to posit the same pair as I'd done while hard-tunnelling the town half of the pair and giving the scum half an unlimited free pass)
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Post Post #186 (isolation #113) » Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:52 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 184, pieg wrote:o i thought you were the rc gurugirl
She's the RC fan girl I think :P
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Post Post #188 (isolation #114) » Sun Apr 02, 2017 7:00 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1451, ThinkBig wrote:
It's MyLo. Please do not recklessly vote or the mafia might be able to quickhammer.


MyLo stands for Mislynch-and-Lose. If we mislynch today, we will lose the game. It is imperative that we do not recklessly vote.

No lynch might be the best option today
.
Spoiler:
If he was an IC I'd be reporting him for lying about theory (since very obviously the BP is town and will get shot by scum, therefore there is no pro-town reason whatsoever to no lynch). Since he's just an SE that doesn't apply.
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Post Post #189 (isolation #115) » Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:03 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1455, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1454, Alisae wrote:In all seriousness I still SR ThinkBig because of Grey's play.
Just because of Grey's play?

If you focused just on my play so far, how would you read me?
Spoiler:
As obvscum :cool:
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Post Post #190 (isolation #116) » Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:29 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1457, oldwino wrote:But if we are unsure, does a no lynch improve our odds of surviving another day and a better chance of lynching scum on D4?
Spoiler:
It does not barring a REALLY dumb scum team because there's a conf!town role who (in normal circumstances) would have already been shot, and would then just die N3.
It's actually really disturbing that no one with experience pointed that out when it was discussed d2.
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Post Post #194 (isolation #117) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:58 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1467, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1466, DogWatch wrote:TB, which would you rather lynch right now?

Icy, are you saying you're 80% on Chris being scum?
If I had my preference, Alisae.
Spoiler:
So the proper thing to do here is to ask ThinkBig WHY he prefers Alisae to Chris if he's confident that's the team, especially since he was openly calling Alisae just badtown on d2.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #195 (isolation #118) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:55 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Time to create a new section of the mhsmith0 IC intro post!

Spoiler: On Information Lynches
Here’s what you need to know about “information lynches”. Don’t do them.

(insert relevant quote)

That’s the succinct version. For the expanded version, consider Newbie 1779, an objectively awful game featuring a bunch of objectively bad town play, including the town IC (mastina) cheerleading “information” lynches. Why was "information" lynching so damaging? Consider what actually happened...

The very unsurprising effects of her trying to push an “information” lynch on Alisae (who was town) instead of Chris (who was scum, as well as her top scum read as she’d discussed numerous times), included:
- Wasting an enormous amount of time and energy on what was essentially useless nonsense
- Giving the scum (ThinkBig and ChrisOrmie) an enormous amount of sludge to hide behind, since “who’s the likeliest scum” (a difficult conversation for scum to fake their way through) turned into “what kind of lynch can give us ‘good’ information” (a very easy conversation for scum to fake their way through) – i.e. the “information” lynch environment actively produced LESS information for town to use to solve, since it artificially changed the board environment from “who is scum and why are they scum” (town-positive) to “what kind of pre-existing connections exist between people and how many scum-teams can a particular mislynch eliminate” (scum-positive)
- It also turned a townie (Alisae) very strongly against mastina (which is virtually inevitable; anytime someone tries to spearhead your lynch for bullshit like “information” you’re ALWAYS going to be inclined to think they’re full of shit [true] and that you’re full of shit because you’re mafia [in this case false], which helped lead to mastina’s mislynch during the day phase

There are times when you can get away with information lynches, or when they’re actually helpful. They include:
- Explicit claim battle and/or other dipole (such as a cop guilty) (these are unusual but anytime you’re in something where you mechanically KNOW one side MUST be lying, and it’s pre-LYLO, you should almost always lynch inside that set and then take what information you can from it)
- A situation where no one is particularly scummy AND few if any people are especially villager AND you simply HAVE to figure out something that’s mechanically or informationally optimal (note: this almost never happens, and when it does, it’s something where it would probably naturally happen as you near deadline and are just forced to do the best you can, as opposed to actually being an intentional town-positive strategy)

But even there, I would STRONGLY suggest that you proceed with incredible caution before creating or enabling an environment where you’re lynching people for information instead of where you’re lynching people because they’re likely to be scum. Information lynches actively hinder town’s scum-hunting environment and actively reduce accountability for peoples’ vote choices, which is poisonous to town more often than not.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #199 (isolation #119) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:24 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

I mean I AM salty but I'm at least trying to make some lemonade out of this *shrugs*
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #200 (isolation #120) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:24 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

:shifty:
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #203 (isolation #121) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:00 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

So in MYLO...

Spoiler:
ThinkBig is being passive and weak. Alisae is being aggressive and useful. It's actually kind of obvious from behaviors here which is the scum (it was also obvious d2 tho...)
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #204 (isolation #122) » Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:29 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1501, Icy wrote:Really up in the air with Chris. I know Mastina said Lemons exit was scummy, but I'm still having trouble seeing that as scummier than the others that left the game. She also scum read him for going after her, but that seems normal for a townee being attacked, however I do see scum Chris doing that. I was sure that was Scum vs Town.
Spoiler:
This is an incredibly lazy reading of what mastina had to say about Chris. Just one example of what she ACTUALLY said:
In post 1223, mastina wrote:Okay, I need to summarize that because it got a bit long. (In my defense, I was responding to a very long post so naturally my response would also be long?)

ChrisOrmie is painting the picture that it is bad to do pre-flip interactions analysis, and that me advocating it is bad-teaching-at-best, scum-lying-at-worst.
He holds mhsmith to some golden standard, insisting that mhsmith's play was nigh-god-levels of perfect. (I can quote any number of areas where he indicates as much, but if you iso him and look at what he says I think I don't need to point this out to you because it is really fucking self-evident.)
Contradiction:
mhsmith, like me, was doing
and advocating
pre-flip interactions analysis.

ChrisOrmie is asking for feedback from living slots on a scumteam.
Contradiction the first:
He does so in spite of insisting it is bad to do pre-flip interactions analysis.
Contradiction the second:
He is not taking into account mhsmith's content and mhsmith's reads/wishes/desires, particularly those near mhsmith's death. Now, it is one thing to say, "mhsmith was lynched town, not nightkilled town; there is no guarantee he was accurate". If you hold mhsmith to the standard of a normal player, this is at least a plausible defense, albeit still one I loathe. HOWEVER, ChrisOrmie is explicitly
not
holding mhsmith to the standard of a normal player. He is elevating mhsmith's standard to a player who "should never have under ANY circumstances been the D1 lynch because his play was JUST THAT GOOD". This is not at all an unfair paraphrase of his stance about mhsmith.

...Yet in spite of him taking that stance about mhsmith, ignoring mhsmith's actual contributions to the thread is quite literally spitting in the face of that respect. The first thing I did after mhsmith was lynched was pay my respects to him: I apologized, recognized he was towning it up, and lamented that it was too late to avert his lynch, with a promise that I would take his analysis into consideration. A promise
I made good on
. He felt one of RadiantCowbells(Alisae) and Grey(ThinkBig) was scum, and the other was town. I, at the time, townread both. But I took his reads into consideration and reevaluated my stance, used his input, and formed new conclusions.

This is another instance of a narrative which is ignoring the reality of the thread. ChrisOrmie is holding a double-standard which is inconsistent.
That, not even going into how he is leaving himself an out: he is painting me as being scum, yet leaving
just
enough wiggle room that WHEN I flip town, he can say "I totally saw that coming" and that "it was okay to do anyway". It is classical manipulation at its finest.

I left the interactions point unfinished, but I'll save it for a second half of this.
Being like "she scum read him for going after her" is a clear mark of someone who didn't care enough to bother going back and reading what she said. Mastina's fuckup there wasn't that her reasons were bad; rather, it was that her reasons were GOOD and that she bailed on getting him lynched for bad reasons.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #205 (isolation #123) » Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:30 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1506, oldwino wrote:I'm not so confident in Grey/TB being town, and Mastina's reads were not very good on D1, but I trust her final analysis as much as I can trust anyone's. My sheeping of Icy is because I know he is town and his analysis all the way through was logical etc. I'll go along with an Alisae lynch but am not in any rush and may not be able to get back on again today.
Spoiler:
And this is what happens when the rest of town has failed. I feel incredibly bad for oldwino being abandoned by most of his teammates basically all game long
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #206 (isolation #124) » Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:31 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1505, Icy wrote:@Alisae With your scum team blown up, your still going after TB. You seem to be the only person not reevaluating your game.
Spoiler:
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #207 (isolation #125) » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:52 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1507, Alisae wrote:Nothing I'm going to say is going to change anyone's minds.
GG scum win.
Spoiler:
The despair here is fairly villagery
Also the post is itself annoying, as good town would actually re-up efforts to convince people, to solve the game, to be productive in SOME kind of useful capacity.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #209 (isolation #126) » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:12 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Alisae
Spoiler:
bears some responsibility for a terrible hard-town read on Chris slot, but in general has been adequate. It's not his fault that mastina was vomiting bullshit against his slot for basically all d2, nor is it entirely his fault that he reacted in a manner that reinforced his conf!bias instead of really thinking through why mastina was doing it (because she had a shitty read and was too lazy to re-evaluate) - a LOT of townies react to that situation in a similar manner, though it's certainly a useful learning moment IMO.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #211 (isolation #127) » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:16 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Yeah, and I think most townies would as well. Mastina not picking up on the fact that peoples' pushes on her were almost entirely natural and reasonable was one of her biggest failures this game. She basically spent the game living in a fantasy state where her posts were good, where she merited an automatic town read, where only scum would push her, where it was never necessarily to critically re-evaluate her play or her reads (beyond a half-assed rethink early D2 where she couldn't be bothered to look into -Grey- at all), etc etc etc. Her conf!bias and her play being almost entirely removed from reality was really strange to watch.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #212 (isolation #128) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 6:24 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1524, ThinkBig wrote:VOTE: Alisae

I'm happy lynching here or lynching Chris.
Spoiler:
Funny how the scum team keeps being "happy" to lynch each other without every actually like voting or pushing each other in any kind of leverage spot.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #213 (isolation #129) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:33 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

And that's the game once Chris shows up.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #215 (isolation #130) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:39 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Meh it was poorly played basically all around. Sometimes shit just happens. Im salty about eating a bullshit loss here, but I also just feel bad for the newbies who were actually trying.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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