Newbie 1779 | Spring | Endgame

[PenguinPower]

Vote Count 2.11

mastina

(3): ChrisOrmie, Icy, Dogwatch

ThinkBig

(2): oldwino, Alisae

Alisae

(2): mastina, ThinkBig

Dogwatch

(1): Blawb

Not Voting

:
With 8 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-03-31 13:00:00)

[ChrisOrmie]

@Mod, VC please.

I am pretty sure if I vote Mastina that puts her at L1. Want to make sure, don't want to accidentally quickhammer.

Yes that's L-1 if you voted.

[Blawb]

Obviously my preferred lynch today is Mastina. I believe Thinkbig will flip town. Not only that but it's possible Mastina has been lining up his flip for town credit the whole game. Thinkbigs lack of participation is questionable, other than that I just don't see it.

Alisae is town because RC was town.

Chris is town. I don't even remember who was in the slot before Pieg, but he was town, Pieg was town, Lemon was town until he left the game (that was a bit questionable) but his posts read town to me.

That leaves me with a Mastina partner of Dog, or OW.

Either could be her Scum buddy. This is my third game, and the first two were won by scum teams consisting of a newb player who played exactly like Dog has this game. Both got town credit for townslips from the veteran players. Given that, my gut still tells me Dog is town and the other scum is OW. He has been driving the train for TB sense the start of the day. He does post LAMIST often, and (in my view) at least subconsciously hinted both his top reads would flip town. He has also held on to the RC/Grey scum team well past it's expiration. Town OW would not be pushing that scum team.

This sums it up for me, minus the mastina part. If town can narrow it down to {mastina, oldwino, DogWatch}, and everyone pretty much agree on that, I'll lynch mastina today. I'll be watching this thread - if that's the decision you guys want to make, give me hammer and I'll get it done.

Town Mastina has sure been quiet while one of her strongest town leads walks the Mafia green mile.

Mastina explicitly stated she wouldn't help OR hinder the TB wagon. If TB is her strongest town read, I wouldn't expect this kind of apathy.

I think she did say she would be back at deadline, not sure if v/la or anything though. She also said she'd hammer TB iirc... I'm trying not to tunnel but everything that's coming out of her lately I just don't like.

@Blawb: In her other games you read, was this how she played when a strong townread of her was pushed hard? Does this fit her as one alignment more than another in your opinion?

NOTE: I'll be at work at deadline (at work now, just sneaking a quick read) so not sure how active I can be then. Not v/la, but also busy from Saturday until Tuesday and so just wanted to let y'all know about it in case I'm only able to dip in and out sporadically.

Although I think it's slightly scummy to not even support someone you read as town, this is what mastina would do as town. The games I've read show that mastina acts scummier when town, and acts townier when scum. I still believe that she is town, but I'm willing to Lynch her if it pushes oldwino and DogWatch into the center stage.

[oldwino]

VOTE: Mastina
L1

[Blawb]

I really don't like where my top two scum reads are in relationship to this wagon. I hope I'm wrong and mastina is scum, but I doubt it.

Intent to hammer.

Going after oldwino and DogWatch tomorrow, right guys? That was the deal...

[oldwino]

Why, if you think Mastina is town, would you intend to hammer? We have time tonight and tomorrow and, if I remember correctly, Alisae will be happy to hammer Mastina.

[ChrisOrmie]

I really don't like where my top two scum reads are in relationship to this wagon. I hope I'm wrong and mastina is scum, but I doubt it.

Intent to hammer.

Going after oldwino and DogWatch tomorrow, right guys? That was the deal...

TB/Wino/Dog for me tomorrow right now, but out of the three I'd rather have TB. Have to see if TB actually posts anything good, or the flip/nk tells us anything fun, before I know where I'm going to push the most tomorrow.

[oldwino]

@ Blawb - Assume, just assume, that I am town. And my 3 top scum reads are Grey/TB, Mastina, and RC/Alisae. From my POV, I learn a lot more if Alisae hammers Mastina than if you do. I know you are town. I do not know about Mastina and Alisae, so they could be a scum team. I know Mastina will not hammer or even vote for Grey/TB, and Grey/TB won't hammer Mastina. therefore they are a possible scum team. So I want to test he Mastina- Alisae pair as a possible scum team. Forcing Alisae to hammer Mastina helps, I think. If Alisae refuses, and someone else is forced to hammer and Mastina flips scum, that indicts Alisae. Right?

[oldwino]

I really don't like where my top two scum reads are in relationship to this wagon. I hope I'm wrong and mastina is scum, but I doubt it.

Intent to hammer.

Going after oldwino and DogWatch tomorrow, right guys? That was the deal...

TB/Wino/Dog for me tomorrow right now, but out of the three I'd rather have TB. Have to see if TB actually posts anything good, or the flip/nk tells us anything fun, before I know where I'm going to push the most tomorrow.

Chris, if TB is your top scum read, why didn't you join that wagon and take him to L1?

[ChrisOrmie]

I really don't like where my top two scum reads are in relationship to this wagon. I hope I'm wrong and mastina is scum, but I doubt it.

Intent to hammer.

Going after oldwino and DogWatch tomorrow, right guys? That was the deal...

TB/Wino/Dog for me tomorrow right now, but out of the three I'd rather have TB. Have to see if TB actually posts anything good, or the flip/nk tells us anything fun, before I know where I'm going to push the most tomorrow.

Chris, if TB is your top scum read, why didn't you join that wagon and take him to L1?

No I was replying to Blawb's "That was the deal" and was just saying for me TB is in the pool with the two they wanted. Mastina is by far my biggest scumread of the game and that's why I've pushed that wagon so hard today, but TB is the second with both DogWatch and yourself a strong read either way but the next lowest on my list.

[mastina]

Apologies for the delay.
I was busy ending one of my other games, which required devoting a significant amount of my time to, and also just as importantly, sitewide NOT devoting time to games. (As in, if I was spending time on this game when I had the need to spend time on that game, it would have been very visible and bad for that game, so my activity across all games has been suffering since waiting for that game to conclude.)

I will be able to talk more extensively when I get an official mod announcement the game has ended, so please hold for about an hour or two.

[Alisae]

mastina I'm probs gonna end up hammering you.
Any last thoughts?

[Alisae]

Actually I lied I may not be able to hammer because I'm going to sleep.

[Alisae]

And I'm not hammering right now because I want mastina to get her last thoughts out even if I think she's scum.
She doesn't deserve to have herself robbed of a voice.

[mastina]

Right, so back from winning a scumgame of mine which was taking a lot out of me--that game required a fair amount of focus to not lose in since I was at a critical time. It also required me to not be around on the entire site while avoiding it, so I had to choose when I would post across the site. (I mean personally I consider the tell of posting elsewhere on the site to often be bullshit, but just because *I* hold that stance doesn't mean others do so I tend to tread carefully and reduce my activity sitewide if there is a game where I really want to lurk in. I tend not to teach that lurking is good, because it often isn't, but it has advantages as both alignments so has a place in the game but it'd probably be best for me to not go into detail about this tangent unless you want to know the difference between good lurking, bad lurking, town lurking, and scum lurking since all four are entirely different things.)

[mastina]

You know we don't have to wait until friday

We don't have to, that is true.

But you asked me what circumstance would dictate me voting ThinkBig--and that's having no alternative come Friday.

[mastina]

I mostly skip Mastina's walls because I don't believe them and think they are mostly a web of confusion and too complex logic.
Occam's razor, they are not.

You could always try asking questions to me.

You haven't done so in a long time.

The last time you asked me a question was early D1 if I recall correctly. During that time, I had reason not to answer.

Since then I have made it clear I would not hold anything back.

So you would always, immediately, get an answer.

[mastina]

Who do you think is likely her partner?, and why?

The ONLY possible partner for DogWatch is Alisae...

...Which is why I want to fucking lynch Alisae first!

If Alisae flips town, DogWatch MUST be town.
If Alisae flips scum, one we lynched scum, and two DogWatch is a possible scumbuddy.

[mastina]

@ IC - can you tell from looking at the first page if there was any opportunity for pregame chatting between scum?

Looks to me like the mod didn't allow time for that

, but I don't know if scum can chat while the mod is waiting for the required number of players to confirm.

I do want to trust that this is an actual townslip by the way. The bolded part in particular. If oldwino was scum, he would know the mod did, and I don't think he chooses now to try and fake the townslip. If he were scum, then I would expect him to fake the townslip much, much, much earlier--around the same time as DogWatch's slip. Maybe after. But not randomly, a full day and a half later.

For this reason, I would expect oldwino to also be town.

[mastina]

Hey experienced players, how common is it for scum to plan 'townslips' pregame? Is it something you have done in other games or something you've thought of doing? Is it anyone's meta? Or would this be really unique ploy?

If you had read my posts you would know my thoughts on the matter. Specifically, it is personality-specific.

RadiantCowbells would do this; it is RIGHT up his alley.
I'm not above faking townslips, but I tend to be subtle about them, often to the extent where it's so subtle that town doesn't actually notice them.
Grey could do it, but I doubt it. He doesn't seem to be the type of player that would do it.

It is for this reason that if you think DogWatch could be scum.
You fucking lynch the RadiantCowbells slot (AKA, Alisae) first.
Because that slot flipping town will basically clear DogWatch, whereas that slot flipping scum is one, a scum lynch, and two, a viable lead.

[mastina]

It's not.

There's a lot that you think is going on in the scum PT but tbh it's not as much as you think it is

.

ITT Alisae literally claimed scum and nobody bothers to point it out.

[mastina]

Not only that but it's possible Mastina has been lining up his flip for town credit the whole game.

There are players who have been doing this!

They sure as fuck aren't me.

Alisae is town because RC was town.

What if I told you that RadiantCowbells is notorious for having a good scumgame and that him looking so town is probably a sign that he is scum? (Also me having initially read him as town. That's a fairly good sign he's actually scum. Go ask him yourself postgame; he knows I'm right about me needing to flip my read on him. )

Chris is town. I don't even remember who was in the slot before Pieg, but he was town, Pieg was town, Lemon was town until he left the game (that was a bit questionable) but his posts read town to me.

And therein lies your problem.
I've outlined the issue with Ulti, I've outlined the issue with lemonator, and the separate issues with Chris.
Chris is scum.

That leaves me with a Mastina partner of Dog, or OW.

Yeah, problem with that.
oldwino has been against me the whole game.
I was against oldwino for half the game.
I was initially against DogWatch.
DogWatch has increasingly strongly been against me.

Again.

A scumteam simply isn't viable with me on it because it would require not just a bus, but a CROSS-bus. A MUTUAL suspicion. An act of calling each other as scum on DAY ONE, even BEFORE WE KNEW THE ROLES IN THE GAME.

I mean.
You can argue I'd bus.
It's not like my rule is "no fucking bussing ever no matter what".
But my rule IS "bussing smart at times where it actually fucking makes sense to bus".
And before we knew the roles in the game (the time I would be bussing either of those and the time they would be bussing me).
Is literally the worst possible time to bus.

Also. Darklyn held oldwino as suspicious.
A mastina-oldwino scumteam if for some ungodly reason we didn't just fucking kill Darklyn sends me to do the kill out of fear that Darklyn will track a scumread in the form of oldwino. So that team's not possible anyway.

[mastina]

On the other hand, if oldwino is scum with mastina, he's been bussing her pretty hard since the beginning of the game, often listing her as his biggest scum read. I think he had her voted most of Day 1 too. I don't really see this as something scum would do, even newb scum.

It's not. You know that IC post I typed out as my entrance?
You know how it was filled with links to theory and stuff?
If I were scum with a newb. I'd post links to relevant scum theory. I'd give them a head-start on the day. I'd warn them of site culture and trends, and how to win the game. I'd tell them what to do and what NOT to do, namely, not to fucking bus when we wouldn't know what the roles in the game are. (I think this setup is 2 goons, yes? 2 goons has the most combinations for possible PR teams, so they don't know what they're up against until they see a town role claim.)

Among the theory stuff I would most fucking CERTAINLY post a link to my article on Stop Bussing, and give a summary to them on EXACTLY why we would want to avoid it. Namely, that with us NOT knowing the roles in the game, we could not afford to bus until we had identified them and made a plan to eliminate them.

Also. By the way. Did you know, the smaller the game, the less mislynches scum need to win?
In a micro (2 scum), it takes 3.
In a mini (3 scum), it takes 5.
In a large, it takes even more.

As a result, the small number of mislynches means getting a perfect victory is much easier in a smaller game. I include the more advanced stats in the article, but basically I outline why it is stupidly suicidal to bus your scumbuddy in a newbie and it's just NOT something you fucking do. Which is why literally the

only

possible scumteam for me is ThinkBig-mastina thanks to literally everyone else scumreading me and almost everyone being scumread BY me.

[mastina]

Mastina also told us Lemons exit was scummy (maybe it was) but, eight people left this game, one was scummy?

You're so full of yourself it's ridiculous.

I'm in no mood to wear kiddie gloves with you anymore.

If that isn't opportunistic I don't know what is.

You're so confirmation biased that you're not even fucking reading my posts.

Lemonator isn't my only scumread.
lemonator was my fucking STRONGEST scumread and continues to have the slot be my strongest scumread.

But I have laid out extensively the exact train of thought behind my process:
DogWatch is

possible

scum...but IF, and

only IF

, Alisae is also scum. (Ergo, lynch Alisae first.)
oldwino was

possible

scum, and viable on most teams. (I have since eliminated him, but he was in my scum pool for quite a bit.) He was not high on the possible scum list, but he was

on

the possible scum list.
ThinkBig is

possible

scum, I just thought Grey was town and am conflicted on ThinkBig so I'm not sure.
Alisae is not only possible scum, but probable scum and I have laid out EXACTLY why I am suspicious of that slot.

You could argue I don't have enough townreads. That would be true! If you scumread me for that, that would be a valid complaint. But you're fucking saying the EXACT FUCKING OPPOSITE, that I'm scum because I DON'T HAVE ENOUGH SCUMREADS, when that COULDN'T BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH.

Which is why I am so fucking pissed at you and I'm beyond restraint.

Town Mastina has sure been quiet while one of her strongest town leads walks the Mafia green mile.

It's ALMOST like I have EXPRESSED DOUBT in my townread of the slot such that I have said that I MIGHT be wrong. But surely that's so farfetched a reason it couldn't really be true, right? That maybe because I am fucking reevaluating my read I am not defending the player I previously was defending?

RC voted Dark 465. Pieg voted Dark (who Mastina pointed out was a alt vet) 491. Those two votes sat side by side till Dark claimed, and that's the scum team!!!!

Yes, and? Scum vote together. Newsflash, they do. This is something every veteran player knows. It's the first fucking thing scum learn how to do in order to beat VCA.

[mastina]

Mastina explicitly stated she wouldn't help OR hinder the TB wagon. If TB is her strongest town read, I wouldn't expect this kind of apathy.

It's ALMOST as if PEOPLE AREN'T FUCKING READING MY POSTS where I LAY THIS OUT and explain my stances!

I mean, if they were then I wouldn't need to explain how ThinkBig isn't my strongest fucking townread because I AM FUCKING REEVALUATING THAT READ which no shit means I'm not going to be stating so strongly not to lynch a slot which I AM NO LONGER SURE OF. I mean. Why the fuck would I defend a slot I am not sure of?