[Game Over] Newbie 1784 - Escape Room

StealthyNoodle
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Post Post #825  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:52 am

Tes, as for you being the the pusher for this whole strat, why don't you (seemingly)care about nancy killing of the tracker?

Why are you so obsessed about surviving this nancy, that you'd like to sacrifice tracker for your own survival. You didn't even have to use this argument before you were L-1, and if you didn't it could be played out pretty well, scum believing tracker was protected. To me you look like town, ruining the game. Or scum claim to be BP.

Obviously no one else are gonna counterclaim BP, because everyone claimed not to be already. If someone's gonna claim, it gotta be the doc, but that's risky, so don't. We'll know if nancy is scum as soon as someone manages to survive the night.

Please, thoughts on this.

Srceenplay
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Post Post #826  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:57 am

In post 822, TesXX wrote:Well, we just wait for a counterclaim.


That's just it.
She just killed a doc or a tracker. Town would not do that. (Should not). If she is telling the truth her best bet would have been to keep her mouth shut at this point.
"A man can not be too careful on the choices of his enemies." Oscar Wilde

Loopdan
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Post Post #827  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:01 pm

In post 825, StealthyNoodle wrote:Please, thoughts on this.


I think we should leave it to the doc to decide if they want to counterclaim. If I was doc I wouldn't CC. I'd just try to get nancy lynched.

StealthyNoodle
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Post Post #828  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:05 pm

In post 823, Loopdan wrote:I fully expected Noodle to CC nancy here.

So you thought I also claimed not to be BP, to ruin the strategy then? Is that even accepted townplay? I can't see any other result of this than maybe ending up counterclaiming scum, while one guarantees a tracker's death (as soon as he claims).

StealthyNoodle
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Post Post #829  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:07 pm

In post 821, Loopdan wrote:However, it is more likely that scum!nancy would make this mistake, as she has to put herself in the mindset of herself being town and "scum reading" pine, who she then has to convince that she is town

I see your thinking, but it's probably just as likely it's a typo.

Loopdan
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Post Post #830  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:09 pm

In post 828, StealthyNoodle wrote:
In post 823, Loopdan wrote:I fully expected Noodle to CC nancy here.

So you thought I also claimed not to be BP, to ruin the strategy then? Is that even accepted townplay? I can't see any other result of this than maybe ending up counterclaiming scum, while one guarantees a tracker's death (as soon as he claims).


CC meaning claiming doc which is a role that is impossible to exist with the BP.

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Post Post #831  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:11 pm

In post 829, StealthyNoodle wrote:
In post 821, Loopdan wrote:However, it is more likely that scum!nancy would make this mistake, as she has to put herself in the mindset of herself being town and "scum reading" pine, who she then has to convince that she is town

I see your thinking, but it's probably just as likely it's a typo.


It's not a reason I'd lynch for by itself but it caught my eye.

StealthyNoodle
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Post Post #832  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:12 pm

Ah okay.

Loopdan
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Post Post #833  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:14 pm

@nancy-- Do you have any crumbs for your BP claim?

StealthyNoodle
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Post Post #834  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:31 pm

In post 820, Srceenplay wrote:at the very least you are a policy lynch.


I agree, but

If she's actually BP, we're gonna end up killing of both our Power Roles in one day.

It's terrible townplay from nancy, in an attempt to save her own butt.
Or scumplay. Anyways, we should be certain before lynching her. A policy lynch here is gonna ruin the game.

Srceenplay
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Post Post #835  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:33 pm

That's why policy lynches never happen and why I didn't vote her.
"A man can not be too careful on the choices of his enemies." Oscar Wilde

Drixx
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Post Post #836  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:05 pm

Interesting gambit. I can't decide which alignment it makes more sense for. Like ... it has been demonstrated that an early BP claim is mechanically absurd and nearly breaks the newbie setup, so sitting on it for that long seems a little off, especially when I know for a fact you've seen the mechanical ploy wreck into a completely perfect win. I'm also going to admit to a little bias because you are now like 0 for 3 in reading me and have claimed you were sure I was scum each time.

I can kind of see both worlds being plausible. Can you help me with a run down on the events of the day in temporal order and what you were thinking at each moment and what the reasoning was that led you to play things out this way.
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TesXX
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Post Post #837  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:22 pm

In post 825, StealthyNoodle wrote:Tes, as for you being the the pusher for this whole strat, why don't you (seemingly)care about nancy killing of the tracker?
I do care, but what happened has happened. I think nancy claimed BP a bit early for it just to be a caught scum thing, so I decided to bring it up if she was counterclaimed.
We'll know if nancy is scum as soon as someone manages to survive the night.
How?

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Post Post #838  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 2:52 pm

If someone survives the night, it means we have a doc. Not sure if scum are allowed to not vote, but to do so would for certain be a risk. They'd let a player stay alive, on the assumption we'll end up lynching nancy.

BlackVoid
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Post Post #839  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:34 pm

I caught up on stuff that happened since I replaced in. nancy's moves so far have been really suboptimal if she's town. It's possible she claimed 1-shot BP as scum to bait a doc claim. If that's the case, the doc counterclaiming at this point is actually the best idea. Then we lynch nancy, the doc is nightkilled. Since there is no roleblocker and only one scum would be left, whoever I track tonight will be cleared. So, even if we mislynch D2 and I get killed N2, there will be a tracker clear on D3. I don't want to risk lynching nancy if she's actually a 1-shot BP and the value of keeping a doc hidden at this point isn't much higher than just counterclaiming. If you are town, please don't fake-claim (I don't know why this needs to be said but it's been happening so often in recent games I've played or modded in).

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Post Post #840  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:43 pm

Newbie Game #1784
Announcement

Day 1 deadline has been extended by an additional 24 hours.
Current vote count has been updated to reflect this extension.

Srceenplay
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Post Post #841  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:47 pm

In post 839, BlackVoid wrote:I caught up on stuff that happened since I replaced in. nancy's moves so far have been really suboptimal if she's town. It's possible she claimed 1-shot BP as scum to bait a doc claim. If that's the case, the doc counterclaiming at this point is actually the best idea. Then we lynch nancy, the doc is nightkilled. Since there is no roleblocker and only one scum would be left, whoever I track tonight will be cleared. So, even if we mislynch D2 and I get killed N2, there will be a tracker clear on D3. I don't want to risk lynching nancy if she's actually a 1-shot BP and the value of keeping a doc hidden at this point isn't much higher than just counterclaiming. If you are town, please don't fake-claim (I don't know why this needs to be said but it's been happening so often in recent games I've played or modded in).


Agree
"A man can not be too careful on the choices of his enemies." Oscar Wilde

StealthyNoodle
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Post Post #842  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:48 pm

If someone fake-claims doc, we'll likely lose BP, tracker and one more(N2), for the trade of a scum.

Drixx
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Post Post #843  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:50 pm

In post 838, StealthyNoodle wrote:If someone survives the night, it means we have a doc. Not sure if scum are allowed to not vote, but to do so would for certain be a risk. They'd let a player stay alive, on the assumption we'll end up lynching nancy.


This post is super contradictory. First you say that if someone survives the night (presumably you mean if no kill happens?), then it means we have doctor ... which is not at all a sound conclusion. Then you express the idea that scum would not kill in order to frame Nancy.

Like ... you basically just scum claimed and cleared Nancy with this post.


P-Edit: It is not necessarily better for a doctor to counterclaim at this point. If we assume Nancy is fake claiming and that there is a doctor, it seems reasonable the doctor could attempt a save tonight to try and get extra utility. Trading 1-for-1 is always to town advantage in the newbie setup; however, there's no pressing reason to settle for ONLY trading 1-for-1. Stopping a night kill and THEN doing the trade would be much more powerful.
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Srceenplay
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Post Post #844  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:52 pm

W/E

VOTE: Noodles
"A man can not be too careful on the choices of his enemies." Oscar Wilde

BlackVoid
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Post Post #845  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 4:01 pm

In post 843, Drixx wrote:Stopping a night kill and THEN doing the trade would be much more powerful.

Actually it wouldn't. If the doc keeps their role hidden, the D1 lynch could be anyone and D1 lynches usually hit town. The doc save means nothing since it just gets the game to evens and we have to no lynch to get it back to odds.

On the other hand, if the doc cc's, we have a guaranteed scum lynch D1 and we can make an informed D2 lynch while using associative tells from nancy to clear town or catch the remaining scum. Tl;dr, not cc'ing now merely shifts the auto-lynch from D1 to D2 and an actual concensus lynch from D2 to D1. But I'd rather have a concensus lynch later in the game when we have more info and flips. I'm not sure I'm phrasing it right. Does that make sense?

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Post Post #846  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 4:04 pm

That's a probabilistic argument and it fails in light of the fact that we have information to work with. In fact ... I would go so far as to say that how Nancy responds to my request will have a HUGE impact on how the rest of this plays out. Try to read between the lines BlackVoid. If scum is who I think it is, I'm quite sure they will see what you didn't.
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BlackVoid
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Post Post #847  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:28 pm

Well, my biggest suspicion right now is your slot due to Pine so I'm taking what you say with a grain of salt.

I can't be the only one who finds this entire wall fake as hell. I'm hoping to catch up really quickly so I can get a better understanding of the gamestate but would like everyone's opinion on Pine/Drixx so I can engage when I catch up. I have about three hours now, then I leave for work for an evening shift and hopefully when I come back at midnight PST, I can catch up some more.

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Post Post #848  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:31 pm

To elaborate somewhat - that wall of Pine's seems designed to get him into nancy's good books (which would imply nancy-town). He just takes it for granted that nancy is town, laying some sort of trap and scumreads people for "falling into her trap" and "reacting to her push like caught scum." It feels really simplistic and not like he's trying to understand other's perspective. More like he's telling nancy what she wants to hear.

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Post Post #849  (ISO)  » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:42 pm

In post 838, StealthyNoodle wrote:If someone survives the night, it means we have a doc.

Or that there's a BP or (less likely)scum just nokills

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