activity level is not a reliable scumtell

[Kmd4390]

here's a tip. the only way activity level is ever ever ever alignment indicative is if you have an established, reliable meta of that specific player across many games. otherwise it's a useless thing to chase. there are a billion reasons a player is or isn't active. their alignment may be one of them, but you have literally no way of knowing unless there's an established pattern having to do with THAT ONE PLAYER.

Even with the meta to back it, it's still far from a guarantee. Things change in people's lives all the time and those things can change activity. I was very active as a bored college student with nothing better to do. Then I got an apartment without internet and a 40 hour work week and was less active. Then I switched jobs and had more free time and my activity came in bursts. None of those changes made me town or scum in a game, but active Kmd was always townread where less active Kmd would get scum read. Without fail. Every time. Even if activity wasn't the stated reason for the read, that's the way it went.

[Kmd4390]

I'd be shocked if any stats anywhere backed up what firebringer is saying

You're assuming:
-everyone is scared of being scum
-nobody has a life outside of mafiascum
-everybody plays scum the same way

Like can you really tell me you haven't played games where the most active player gets shrugged off as obvtown by everyone and then turns out to be scum? I've seen it a ton of times. You need to look at the content of the posts. Not just the frequency or length

[Kmd4390]

Look more for what the person is trying to get you to do and why than how well they presented their arguement.

[Kmd4390]

I'd be shocked if any stats anywhere backed up what firebringer is saying

You're assuming:
-everyone is scared of being scum
-nobody has a life outside of mafiascum
-everybody plays scum the same way

Like can you really tell me you haven't played games where the most active player gets shrugged off as obvtown by everyone and then turns out to be scum? I've seen it a ton of times. You need to look at the content of the posts. Not just the frequency or length

Ummmm most of this isn't what I am saying.....


And most people do play scum in same way, there isn't much variety for it on MS.

It's the logic behind what you are saying.

[Kmd4390]

Call it fear or anxiety. Either way, not everyone experiences it and of those who do, not everyone handles it by posting less. Maybe it applies to you specifically, but that makes it a meta tell. I make a point to post any time I have the free time just so I get townread whether I'm town or scum. So what applies to you doesn't apply to me. It doesn't work as a general tell.

If anyone is using RL as an excuse when RL isn't actually what is stopping them from posting, that's not someone I want to play with because that's outside the spirit of the game. (By the way, when you say "your" when you mean "you're, it makes your post difficult to read. Please fix that.)

Your third point is just...wow. No. If you've never seen a brilliant fakeclaim or scum controlling the game, you have a ton of mafia to play before you can even enter this debate. Scum who stick to basics or lurk aren't scum who win most of the time. Sure you might get lucky. But scum with high win rates probably aren't people who play scum your way.

[Kmd4390]

And now we're at profanity.

Maybe I need to avoid MD too and not just games.

Preview edit: Your experiences aren't invalid. They just aren't the ONLY thing that IS valid.

[Kmd4390]

If anyone wants me to tell you how much I have played, its probably more than all of you. 

I seriously doubt that

[Kmd4390]

Spoiler: My Data Collection

Mini Normal 1874 Camping Trip Mafia, Top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1873 top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1888 Two Face Mafia, 1 of Top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1883 Under the Sea, top three posters all town
Mini 1875 Pines Death Trap, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1897, 1 of top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1865, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1871: 1 of top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1854, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1860, 1 of top three posters was scum

Spoiler: Analysis

Guess this shows, if you want to expand that into making broad assertions, this means in 60% of games, the town are the ones controlling the conversation completely. In 40% of games the scum are in the top posters. I think I could point out how no scum was ever the top poster, but I think that is just nitpicking. This just shows me the data didn't really back up my own thoughts.

Guess I was wrong. Or I got to collect a bigger sample.
Meh.

Guess I am full of shit.

60:40 on a small sample size doesn't mean much

[Kmd4390]

Sorry I was reading that last line as sarcasm

Preview edit:
Yeah I've got that beat

[Kmd4390]

My wiki shows 134 games but hasn't been updated in about six or seven years and doesn't include alts.

[Kmd4390]

nerds

No