Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!

[Shteven]

vote:Shteven

Take a look at his first line. Okay, it's the second line, but I don't count agreed as a line.

Agreed. I'd say it's most likely that he was doctor protected, and that mafia chose other targets instead of taking the chance on there being a doctor protection.

He says it's likely Jesse was doctor protected, he didn't say that the scum thought that Jesse was doctor protected. This means he was thinking about Jesse being protected. This makes me think he is scum who made what I believe is called a Freudian slip.

I have a hard time seeing how this makes a case at all. I realize what you're trying to get at, but I'm capable of thinking that Jesse got doctor protection as a pro-town. It's not only scum who may have thought that. If only scum could ever think about doctor protections, everyone should be lynching Jesse now because there would be no reason for him to be alive.

Also, I'd like to amend my previous maybe answer. It's still maybe, but if we do have a vig, it's possible that both he and the SK picked up jesse as a possible scum. So it's a slightly more likely maybe. Would be pretty interesting to see that all 3 night powers were on him over his vote on jesse.

[kabenon007]

My point, Shteven, is that you had no reason to be thinking about it. It's possible for a townie to think it, but why would you? It doesn't do us any good to think about, therefore why bother? However, for scum, thinking about whether the cop will be protected is high on the priority list.

[-TinVision-]

First Vote Count of the Day

Oman: 1

(

Phate

)

Shteven: 1

(

kabenon007

)

Not voting: 13

(

farside22, Jesse Gunn, Justin Playfair, LaptopGun, MadCrawdad, Oman, OpposedForce, Peers, Shteven, somestrangeflea, Spacecase, The Fonz, timmytuttut88, vollkan, Wesaq

)

[farside22]

My point, Shteven, is that you had no reason to be thinking about it. It's possible for a townie to think it, but why would you? It doesn't do us any good to think about, therefore why bother? However, for scum, thinking about whether the cop will be protected is high on the priority list.

What?? Phate brings out the comment asking why is Jesse still alive and I made a comment about why it was possible how is that different then what Shteven point out?

[vollkan]

Police are seeking witnesses in the killing of Peers, Vanilla Townie, who was found dead of two gunshot wounds in a dumpster this morning by Holiday Inn staff.

Does this mean that two killers targetted the same person? I ask as it may provide some insight into the "Doc protection" speculation.

I don't think it can reliably be taken to mean anything.

It could be just flavour, or it could mean he was targeted twice.

My point, Shteven, is that you had no reason to be thinking about it. It's possible for a townie to think it, but why would you? It doesn't do us any good to think about, therefore why bother? However, for scum, thinking about whether the cop will be protected is high on the priority list.

Adding to what farside just said,

Trying to suggest the survival of a cop is scummy when the strong possibility exists of one or more docs- scummy.

Agreed. I'd say it's most likely that he was doctor protected, and that mafia chose other targets instead of taking the chance on there being a doctor protection.

He was responding to Fonz, whose post implied a similar line of thought (ie. that the survival was not surprising given the likelihood of a doc protection).

Also, I really dispute the suggestion that this isn't something a townie should be thinking about. This sort of speculation is very important - to rationalise why Jesse would be alive so as to not cast undue suspicion on his claim.

[LaptopGun]

I agree with Volkan that it is important to try to figure out. I believe he's on the town's side, but I understand someone could not. Hence I want this mess cleared up.

[kabenon007]

I think it is good to figure it out as well. I was more concerned with the word choicing and placement. It struck me as scummy, and it is kinda hard to explain. It's a feeling more than anything, and I tried to explain it, apparently not very well.

[Oman]

Well, my belief currently is that vollkan is right, and so is LTG. Basically: We should speculate, by no means give Jessie a free pass, but definatly Keep our eyes on.

I'm going to upgrade my fos to a

Vote Phate

Mostly for his terrible vote on me (no, this is not OMGUS, he voted me for a really poor reason).

[somestrangeflea]

It's possible for a townie to think it, but why would you? It doesn't do us any good to think about, therefore why bother?

When it boils down to it, you're suspecting Shteven for thinking outside your box, which is quite sucky, TBH.

Jesse Gunn being Mafia would require the entire Day 1 situation to have been set-up, which, upon looking through the last few pages of yesterday, doesn't seem feasible. It would also require the discussion of such a tactic throughout the night, and I don't think any sane Mafia buddies would let half their team go out on a claiming, self-lynching gambit.

Jesse Gunn being an SK would allow him to use whatever tactics he wanted, fakeclaiming Cop or otherwise. The only problem with this is that there would be no way for him to know who was scum and who wasn't, unless he was just really lucky.

It is for these reasons that I am, until anything major suggests otherwise, going to discount the possiblity of JG being scum.

[MadCrawdad]

My point, Shteven, is that you had no reason to be thinking about it. It's possible for a townie to think it, but why would you? It doesn't do us any good to think about, therefore why bother? However, for scum, thinking about whether the cop will be protected is high on the priority list.

Why would somebody have to be scum just to be thinking of possibilities as to why a person claiming cop wasn't nightkilled? The question was posed, 'Why are you still alive?' to JG... I immediately started running scenarios in my head as to why the claimed cop might still be alive.

How, as you say, could this not do us any good to think about?

[farside22]

I agree with Volkan that it is important to try to figure out. I believe he's on the town's side, but I understand someone could not. Hence I want this mess cleared up.

This statement comes across as wishy washy. I agree however type excuse is used usually when someone doesn't want to step on people's toes. Call this gut check if you will.

vote: laptopgun

[kabenon007]

Gracious people, I responded to this already... you just aren't reading!

When it boils down to it, you're suspecting Shteven for thinking outside your box, which is quite sucky, TBH.

I already said, I was more suspicious of the way he worded it, not the fact that he was thinking it. I didn't really explain it in my first post, but oh well. My mistake.[/quote]

[Justin Playfair]

Quick thoughts:

Kabenon,

I understand what you’re going for with Shteven, but the problem here is two-fold. First, to have real meaning the kind of slip you’re suggesting here would either have to be part of a pattern of behavior or be far more blatant in thinking of a situation from a scum perspective. Second, in and of itself, Shteven’s statement doesn’t approach the issue from the perspective you’re suggesting it does. I mean, from any reasonable examination of the situation it would seem most likely that Jesse Gunn would have been doctor protected last night.

Given that Shteven, even if he were scum, could not know that Jesse Gunn was protected last night if as scum he killed another target, and given that it would seem a logical assumption for town or scum that Jesse Gunn would be protected for anyone playing regardless of alignment, why would you consider what Shteven said to be particularly indicative of a scummy slip?

And on that score…

Phate,

Please correct me if you see a flaw in this reasoning, but randomly we have either 0, 1, or 2 doctors in town. Unless I’m mistaken in how this random choice is arrived at that means we have a 66% chance of having a doctor. For all intents and purposes we have a claimed cop in Jesse Gunn. Not only that, but we have a claimed cop whose claimed first night investigation struck scum. So, if we have a doctor I cannot think of a more logical person for the doctor to protect on night one. If we do not have a doctor, scum wouldn’t know that, and would not therefore seem likely to risk their first night kill going after him.

Given this, none of which seems like very deep thought, what were your reasons for being surprised that Jesse Gunn was alive this morning? And why did you choose to phrase your question to him in what at least strikes me as a very pejorative ‘when did you stop beating your wife’ type manner? Because the answer you have offered as one that Jesse Gunn should give would have in no way answered the clearly suspicious implications of your question.

[Justin Playfair]

Farside22,

I am curious about this sequence of posts from you late on day one:

My issue with this statement is there is more likely then not at least one cop. I haven't seen anyone attempt a counter claim of any sort. I will grant you he should have played his hand better. If that is your best defense against the claim I'm just not buying it.

The first post states that there may be 0, 1, or 2 cops or doctors. You suggest here that a counter claim to what Jesse Gunn posted would have been a logical step. But with a possible 2 cops in town someone claiming to be cop could have been merely a second cop. This would have had no bearing on Jesse Gunn’s claim. The last sentence in this post almost seems to urge Six Aces to make a claim of his own.

Which Six Aces did, immediately, claiming doc.

I then pointed out that we specifically did not need more claims and within ten minutes you had posted this:

I agree with that. At this point one of the two of them is lying that I have no doubt about.

It seems possible to me that this quick, largely contentless post (because as Fonz pointed out in his next post, of course one of them was lying) was to agree as quickly as possible to the point I had raised to try to cover the fishing/coaching you had done in your previous post.

If you would be so kind could you explain your thinking throughout this sequence?

[farside22]

Farside22,

I am curious about this sequence of posts from you late on day one:

My issue with this statement is there is more likely then not at least one cop. I haven't seen anyone attempt a counter claim of any sort. I will grant you he should have played his hand better. If that is your best defense against the claim I'm just not buying it.

The first post states that there may be 0, 1, or 2 cops or doctors. You suggest here that a counter claim to what Jesse Gunn posted would have been a logical step. But with a possible 2 cops in town someone claiming to be cop could have been merely a second cop. This would have had no bearing on Jesse Gunn’s claim. The last sentence in this post almost seems to urge Six Aces to make a claim of his own.

Which Six Aces did, immediately, claiming doc.

I then pointed out that we specifically did not need more claims and within ten minutes you had posted this:

I agree with that. At this point one of the two of them is lying that I have no doubt about.

It seems possible to me that this quick, largely contentless post (because as Fonz pointed out in his next post, of course one of them was lying) was to agree as quickly as possible to the point I had raised to try to cover the fishing/coaching you had done in your previous post.

If you would be so kind could you explain your thinking throughout this sequence?

I usually in other games have stated that a person hasn't had a counter claim (which in retrospect was stupid as there is a possiblity of more then one cop) so therefore Jesse claim seemed valid. When you stated about people not counter claiming I agreed because Six Aces already claimed cop and no other person should claim at that point since one was obviously lying.

[Phate]

I'm tired of defending my surprised question, which is exactly what it appeared to be, a surprised question.

Here's what I did: I woke up to find that the claimed cop had posted. In my experience, claimed cops don't often live through the night. I was surprised, and without bothering to authenticate, made an offhand command and asked if I was thinking about the right game, or whether I had gotten them mixed up.

Here's what I did

not

do: I didn't go check to see if this was the right game, I didn't calculate the odds of a doctor, I didn't make a premeditated attempt to cast suspicion on the claimed and correct-yesterday cop, I didn't expect anyone to take it for more than it was.

So I suspect that there are scum circling the water here waiting to see if they can get townies to make more of this than it is. One such opportunist was Oman, who promptly OMGUS'd me afterwards (saying, "but this isn't OMGUS, you have poor reasoning" doesn't make it not OMGUS, especially when my reason was opportunism and I gave a specific example).

[The Fonz]

It's possible for a townie to think it, but why would you? It doesn't do us any good to think about, therefore why bother?

When it boils down to it, you're suspecting Shteven for thinking outside your box, which is quite sucky, TBH.

Jesse Gunn being Mafia would require the entire Day 1 situation to have been set-up, which, upon looking through the last few pages of yesterday, doesn't seem feasible. It would also require the discussion of such a tactic throughout the night, and I don't think any sane Mafia buddies would let half their team go out on a claiming, self-lynching gambit.

Jesse Gunn being an SK would allow him to use whatever tactics he wanted, fakeclaiming Cop or otherwise. The only problem with this is that there would be no way for him to know who was scum and who wasn't, unless he was just really lucky.

It is for these reasons that I am, until anything major suggests otherwise, going to discount the possiblity of JG being scum.

QFT.

Here's what I did: I woke up to find that the claimed cop had posted. In my experience, claimed cops don't often live through the night.

This is a very strange statement. In my experience, claimed cops more often than not live until there is a dead doctor.

[quote="Justin Playfair]
Phate,

Please correct me if you see a flaw in this reasoning, but randomly we have either 0, 1, or 2 doctors in town. Unless I’m mistaken in how this random choice is arrived at that means we have a 66% chance of having a doctor. For all intents and purposes we have a claimed cop in Jesse Gunn. Not only that, but we have a claimed cop whose claimed first night investigation struck scum. So, if we have a doctor I cannot think of a more logical person for the doctor to protect on night one.[/quote]

I was wondering about this actually. Is the number of doctors randomised with equal chances of 0, 1 and 2, or done in the manner of smaller C9s, ie two coin flips? (Which would mean 25% no doctors, 50% one and 25% two?)

[MadCrawdad]

I already said, I was more suspicious of the way he worded it, not the fact that he was thinking it. I didn't really explain it in my first post, but oh well. My mistake.

Not really wanting to beat a dead horse here, but saying you didn't fully explain it is an understatement. Here's your follow-up where you specifically say that he was scummy for even thinking it... Totally impossible to misinterpret, wouldn't you agree?

My point, Shteven, is that you had no reason to be thinking about it. It's possible for a townie to think it, but why would you? It doesn't do us any good to think about, therefore why bother? However, for scum, thinking about whether the cop will be protected is high on the priority list.

[vollkan]

I already said, I was more suspicious of the way he worded it, not the fact that he was thinking it. I didn't really explain it in my first post, but oh well. My mistake.

Not really wanting to beat a dead horse here, but saying you didn't fully explain it is an understatement. Here's your follow-up where you specifically say that he was scummy for even thinking it... Totally impossible to misinterpret, wouldn't you agree?

My point, Shteven, is that you had no reason to be thinking about it. It's possible for a townie to think it, but why would you? It doesn't do us any good to think about, therefore why bother? However, for scum, thinking about whether the cop will be protected is high on the priority list.

:goodposting:

Kab, your first post seemed pretty unambiguous that it is

what

he wast hinking that was the problem - not

how

he said it.

@kab - Can you elaborate on what was suspicious about the way he worded it?

[kabenon007]

Okay... I think I found a better way to explain it. For instance, would a townie have to deliberate about whether or not the cop is going to be protected? No, we have no reason to, whether we think about it or not has no bearing on whether the cop survives the night.

For a scum, he has to sit and think and mull over the fact that there is probably a doctor, so should he take the chance and try to kill the doc, or should he just kill someone else.

But it was the wording that tipped me off to this fact. He doesn't say the mafia thought that he would be doctor protected, he just said, it's probable that he would have been, or something along those lines. So I took that to mean that he was deliberating about whether or not the cop was going to be protected enough, deliberating enough to post that fact.

[The Fonz]

But it was the wording that tipped me off to this fact. He doesn't say the mafia thought that he would be doctor protected, he just said, it's probable that he would have been, or something along those lines.

This, to me, seems the LESS likely of those two wordings to indicate any kind of mafia slip. If he'd have said the mafia thought he would be doc-protected, that looks more like a slip to me.

[vollkan]

For instance, would a townie have to deliberate about whether or not the cop is going to be protected? No, we have no reason to, whether we think about it or not has no bearing on whether the cop survives the night.

I disagree.

Let's remember the context first of all: Phate had expressed surprise that Jesse was alive. Whether or not it was Phate's intention to do so, Phate's comments appeared to express doubts regarding the likelihood of Jesse's survival. Fonz was the first to respond to this, by raising the fact that the possibility for multiple docs render Jesse's survival perfectly plausible.

Shteven followed this up by agreeing with Fonz and saying that the high objective likelihood of doc protection would very likely have prompted scum to target elsewhere.

I really fail to see how, in such a context, Shteven's comments can be construed as scummy.

For a scum, he has to sit and think and mull over the fact that there is probably a doctor, so should he take the chance and try to kill the doc, or should he just kill someone else.

Absolutely true. Scum will obviously consider such matters in making a NK decision.

However, it's also perfectly feasible that a townie, on seeing a cop surviving the night, would try to rationalise that cop's survival. In fact, as I have already said, such considerations are of the utmost importance in assuring that the claim is not treated with undue skepticism.

But it was the wording that tipped me off to this fact. He doesn't say the mafia thought that he would be doctor protected, he just said, it's probable that he would have been, or something along those lines. So I took that to mean that he was deliberating about whether or not the cop was going to be protected enough, deliberating enough to post that fact.

Fonz has already commented on the fact that you seem to take the less scummy meaning to be the scummier.

If he had said "The mafia thought...." that would be a real cause for some concern.
Saying "It's probable..." is, as I have already stressed, something that is perfectly likely to come from a townie - particularly in the context already outlined.

[LaptopGun]

Farside, unfortunately I can come across as "wishy washy" as I try to be balanced and open minded in my posts. I'll try to be less open ended.

On the two interpretations debate, "the mafia think" sounds more like a scum rationalizing their thinking while trying to remain seemingly I innocent. There seems to be implied inside info, too. Hence it looks more like an act or perhaps a Freudian slip. The other one sounds more like the person doesnt have inside knowledge and looks less of rationalizing what happen. Or that's how I see it.

[MadCrawdad]

I usually in other games have stated that a person hasn't had a counter claim (which in retrospect was stupid as there is a possiblity of more then one cop) so therefore Jesse claim seemed valid. When you stated about people not counter claiming I agreed because Six Aces already claimed cop and no other person should claim at that point since one was obviously lying.

Even if it wasn't obvious to you that one of them was lying, wouldn't you agree, that any counter claim (assuming it was legit) on Day 1 could ultimately prove disatrous for the town?

[Spacecase]

well looking over the past few days of posting which i largely missed due to finals, I'm still kinda behind but im a little suspicious of Jesse because the person he investigated just happened to be Peers. I could be looking to far into it, but that's just my personal opinion.