Open 64 - Vengeful Mafia - (Game Over!!) before 551

[YvonneSeer]

Oh, hello! Are you scum?

[YvonneSeer]

Ah, putting yourself at L-1. A classic townie move.

[YvonneSeer]

Ah, putting yourself at L-1. A classic townie move.

What?

Sarcasm aside, explain your reason for a self-vote and why you think it's a pro-town move.

[YvonneSeer]

Hmm, I'll post in a few hours' time. I need to gather my thoughts first.

[YvonneSeer]

While we wait for YvonneSeer to gather her thoughts...

What does everyone think Mayor Gruden? I liked the hot chocolate that he served us.

I hope that generator lasts us remainder of winter.

I don't have a clue what you're on about?

Lloyd's talking about the game's opening flavour.

Sorry I stalled the game but my wireless internet has been really unstable. Anyway, my thoughts have been gathered at last and here's the long-awaited post.

---

Basically, TSPN is right. Xtoxm's self-vote was not a pro-town thing to do if he's a townie. A vig kill from a lynched townie is not as good as lynching scum instead and you can do the math yourself with some help from the wiki. I had read the wiki beforehand because it was a different setup and I didn't want to screw-up. Xtoxm claims he didn't realise the statistics were like that and I might be inclined to believe him, since prior to having read the wiki, I thought it was a good trade-off as well to vig a scum after being lynched.

Now, on to some player analysis with what's going on so far:

TSPN:

I was very pleased with his Post 14 because it looked like he knew Xtoxm's self-vote was a bad move as well, perhaps also from having read the wiki. However, he got immediately sidetracked by TheStranger, which I have two different opinions about:

1. It was understandable that he suspected TheStranger considering that TheStranger was taking heat off Xtoxm when TSPN had a reasonable suspicion of Xtoxm's self-vote.

2. It was very hasty to immediately jump on TheStranger considering that Xtoxm's self-vote should have been examined more closely but instead TSPN went on with a debate with TheStranger while Xtoxm got out of the mess.

I don't know for sure which one it is, but I'm kind of leaning towards the second one.

FoS TSPN

. TSPN, you started off well but I'm currently most suspicious of you.

TheStranger:

I didn't like his Post 17 at all. He baited TSPN for whatever reason he had, and TSPN decided to bite. I can't say much about the debate between the two because TheStranger didn't read the wiki and the math part of him is still rather confused about it all but I do agree with him when he says TSPN is rather certain about him being scum after so few posts, which contributed to my FoS on TSPN as well. However, looking back, I can also see TheStranger doing the same as TSPN but a slightly more toned-down version instead. This makes me wonder if TSPN and TS are scum together, both having heavily bussed each other in the early game over a matter

regarding another player

. Something to think about for now.

Xtoxm:

Need I say anything else further about his self-vote? My initial thought: Scum trying to pull off some kind of a gambit. Then I wondered whether he didn't read the wiki and thought it was a good 1-for-1 trade just like I did, before I read the wiki. I gave him the benefit of the doubt and tried to coax him into revealing his reason for that self-vote. Now, I'm still rather on the fence with this guy. I'll need to see some substantial posts from him for now.

Lloyd:

You barely posted much (yes, the same can be said for myself, but I'm posting something now) and the posts which you do have contain nothing where you truly scumhunt. And no, I didn't overlook your analysis, which I must say, is quite ambitious, since it came after only 9 game posts, only 1 of which contained any real content. Why are you so eager to pair everyone off with nothing whatsoever to go on? Are you waiting to take control of town? I await more posts from you so that I can see where you stand.


This is how I currently see the rest of the players. Respond as you see fit.

[YvonneSeer]

I've been slowly starting to think the same thing, actually. I thought your response initially had more substance, while xtoxm's was just based on me being "uncertain." Which I wasn't, and it never made any sense, so I focused on your response and then we started debating finer statistics and I got distracted. I'm starting to feel an yvonne-xtoxm scumpair.

Consider that xtoxm self-votes, and yvonne says "classic townie move," I say "bad idea", thestranger FOS's me, and then xtoxm votes me for being uncertain, without even mentioning yvonne. Later, yvonne asks him "why it was a pro-town move," and xtoxm ignores her. Then, later, xtoxm says its been a few days since yvonne said she was going to post a summary. Its sort of like xtoxm really wants yvonne to keep playing, but doesn't really want to examine her play. Even yvonne's analysis concludes with her being "on the fence" about xtoxm.

So, I'm going to

unvote

for now. I don't want to put xtoxm at L-1 without some more discussion, but I'm starting to swing back to thinking of the self-vote as a scum gambit.

Well, you obviously missed the sarcasm.

[YvonneSeer]

I like how TheStranger's vote is no longer random.

Despite what TheSweatpantsNinja wrote, I don't like how he unvoted without FOS'ing nor voting for Xtoxm.

Vote: TheSweatpantsNinja

for that plus earlier Wifom-ish posts, which now puts TheSweatpantsNinja at L-1.

FOS: Xtoxm and YvonneSeer

for not posting substantively in responses to them being a possible pair, as both SweatpantsNinja and I pointed out earlier.

The only thing that links me and Xtoxm is this so-called casual banter between the two of us, which I should think points towards friendly boredom and not potential scumbuddies. But, I have taken note of yet another attempt of yours to pair off players with a weak reason.

vote Lloyd

[YvonneSeer]

Are you scum? Why did you hammer so fast?

[YvonneSeer]

That doesn't give you a reason to go and hammer one of the two lynch candidates.

Do you think Xtoxm is likely to come up scum?

[YvonneSeer]

Well, Xtoxm is not the scummiest to me, so I hope you made the right choice.

[YvonneSeer]

One of you bussed him out.

Lloyd:

Tries to pair me with Xtoxm. Exactly something the GF would do by pinning a townie to his goon, so that they go down together. A very suspicious L-2 vote switch from TSPN onto Xtoxm with no reason whatsoever which subsequently led to the lynch.

TheStranger:

Derails TSPN from original argument about the self-vote, as if taking heat off his goon. Random votes on Xtoxm which is never removed throughout the day and eventually becomes non-random.

TSPN:

Unhappy with Xtoxm's self-vote but doesn't pursue it any further, instead goes after TheStranger. Carefully laid-out distancing? Also, the speedy hammer is rather suspicious.

I am inclined to think that TheStranger is the least likely to be the remaining GF. It's more likely Lloyd or TSPN.

vote Lloyd

[YvonneSeer]

Vote: TheSweatpantsNinja

TheSweatpantsNinja, it's for the same reason that I voted for Xtoxm yesterday. I don't like how you both unvoted yesterday without re-voting.

Yvonne, yesterday, you seem uncertain throughout the day and seemly lurking. Today, you begin by accusing everyone. What happened that caused a change in the tone of your posts? Are you so sure that you're not scum, and simply forgot to check your PM yesterday?

Obviously I'm uncertain on Day 1 with nothing to work with, everyone is possible scum. And in this particular game where it's 3 vs 2 with a slightly different mechanism, mistakes from a townie will cost the town dearly and I pay extra attention not to be hasty and screw up. That being said, it's now Day 2 and a goon is dead. Now I can pick out the connections between the goon and the remaining GF, which means I have evidence to work with. And with this evidence, I conclude that you, sir, are most likely Xtoxm's GF.

Also, I must say I'm pretty sure I'm not scum since I didn't get a scum PM, but you should check your inbox, it's probably there.

[YvonneSeer]

This post will be full of WIFOM. I concede this up front, but I still think my arguments will be sound.

If I am scum: Then I am gf, xtoxm distanced by voting me early in the game, and I repaid him back by hammering when I could have just as easily hammered lloyd. Hammering xtoxm, of course, have been a terrible play, but I could have been WIFOMing for the win.

You keep using WIFOM in your posts. Admitting to using it beforehand doesn't excuse you from being able to do it without consequences. Stop WIFOMing around because you're clouding my judgment of you.

If TheStranger is scum: Then the "random" vote and the L-1 self-vote was a planned tactic. I suspected this at the beginning of the game, but TheStranger had ample opportunity to reasonably change his vote (to me, to lloyd) and did not. I think it is unlikely he is scum.

So, we agree here.

If Lloyd is scum: Then xtoxm put his gf at L-1. Considering that I had already implied I would vote xtoxm, this is not an absolute clearance, but its certainly a risky play. Lloyd also put me at L-1 and no one hammered. Lloyd also would have bussed xtoxm, which is certainly conceivable. I think it is possible lloyd is scum.

Not only is Lloyd possible scum, it is highly likely. You say Xtoxm placing his GF at L-1 is risky play, but we're talking about a scum who

placed himself

at L-1. I wouldn't put it past Xtoxm to have placed Lloyd at L-1 in the hopes that it will look too risky to have been done. Plus, the only one suspicious of Lloyd was me and there was hardly any danger of him being hammered by you or TheStranger.

If yvonne is scum: Then the strange ways yvonne and xtoxm interacted seem worth noticing indeed. Also, not on the xtoxm lynch. I think it is probable yvonne is scum.

This so-called interaction is not even a scumtell. The more this issue is brought up, the more worthless it becomes. Firstly, I can be friendly to anyone if I'm bored, even though I don't know their alignment. Secondly, there is also no need for me to go out of my way and reveal myself by having conversations with my scumpartner in broad daylight if I was scum.

Also, it's more likely that the GF bussed his goon out, rather than not being on his lynch. This

is

Vengeful, after all. Though, I'm not pointing this out as my defence, but the fact that you stating that I wasn't on Xtoxm's lynch contributes to me being the GF is wrong and in fact, it's more likely the GF is somewhere on the wagon.

The nice thing about lynching correctly Day 1 is that we can afford a mislynch, but obviously we should still try and be right this time. What I find most interesting about the day is the votes leading up to the hammer.

TheStranger was voting for xtoxm, xtoxm was voting for me, I was voting for TheStranger.

I unvote.
Lloyd votes me.
xtoxm unvotes.
Yvonne votes lloyd.
lloyd votes xtoxm.
xtoxm votes lloyd.
I hammer.

If xtoxm and lloyd are scum, then xtoxm's unvote doesn't on me doesn't make much sense. Since every other player had expressed suspicion for me, it wouldn't have been all that much of a reach to let yvonne or thestranger hammer. Even if I ignore the hammerer and dayvig xtoxm, there's still a good chance that the hammerer gets lynched tomorrow.

If xtoxm and yvonne are scum, then xtoxm's unvote makes more sense. He could have let yvonne hammer me, but then I might dayvig xtoxm and it would be yvonne who caught the heat.

So,

vote: yvonne.

Will be very much interested to hear what the stranger and lloyd have to say.

I have no idea what you're talking about here. You were not even close to being lynched at all. If anything, this implicates you more as Xtoxm's GF than me, since

Lloyd voted you and placed you at L-1 in Post 61 and Xtoxm immediately unvoted in Post 62

. Hmm, that

is

very suspicious. It's a good thing I looked back.

If we do lynch Lloyd and he is not the GF, I'll be voting for you tomorrow.

[YvonneSeer]

@TSPN: The point is, if you don't use any WIFOM arguments, nobody would claim WIFOM at you. The more you use WIFOM, the scummier you look, since townies would definitely not want to keep other townies continuously guessing which alignment they've been WIFOMed into, instead of hunting for real scum. Also, what is your case against me?

@TheStranger: I haven't got a good case against Lloyd? Have you re-read the thread? Never mind, let me summarise it for you.

Evidence:

Lloyd Post 13: Subtly tries to pair me off with his goon Xtoxm using a weak reason (apparent conversation). And although Xtoxm's self-vote is obviously scummy, he places his goon third on his scumlist.

Lloyd Post 40: Again tries to pair me off with Xtoxm, not so subtly this time, but still with the same weak reason.

Lloyd Post 68: Suddenly, out of nowhere, unvotes TSPN (his #1 suspect) and votes Xtoxm (his #3 suspect) and gives no reason. There had been no previous posts from Lloyd regarding him being suspicious about Xtoxm. This is a bus vote.

Xtoxm Post 71: Xtoxm catches on and knows it's time for him to be bussed out. Distances from Lloyd by voting him. Placing his GF at L-1

is

a gambit but he also placed

himself

at L-1 on page 1, plus there was no danger of a hammer from TSPN or TheStranger since I was the only one onto Lloyd.

Summary:

Throughout the day, neither Lloyd nor Xtoxm addressed each other's actions. Then, all too soon, they're both voting each other and one of them is lynched so that the other looks good. Bussing 101.

Conclusion:

Lloyd is scum.

[YvonneSeer]

Yay we won!! And I know there's only 5 players, but is Vengeful usually only around 5 pages long?