UK Pol - #independenceday

[zoraster]

Oh! another thread where I get to point out how bad Corbyn is and how much Labour screwed up by picking him.

[zoraster]

Do you mean "Labour knew they'd lose so put someone in leadership who they hate so whoever is next is untarnished"?

I think probably not as it was largely grassroots campaigners who pushed Corbyn hard. The Labour MPs largely didn't want Corbyn.

[zoraster]

Well, they did get a referendum on the alternative vote method.

Anyway, i think their dalliance with the conservatives was pretty poorly considered, and it was pretty obvious. I don't know if LDs with their first whiff of power just lost their heads or what.

[zoraster]

Oh, I completely agree. It was political suicide for them to enter into a coalition with the Tories.

At the same time in some sort of marginal constituency where a LD is in the running, what else is there to do? Vote for Corbyn led Labour? The Tories? There are no good answers.

[zoraster]

Vote strategically in those situations, Mac. Think about which candidates have any shot in your constituency whatsoever, vote for one whose party you dislike least.

[zoraster]

My current constituency has a 12k gap between the Tories and then who was second - Labour last time around - the Lib Dems took a 15% hit going from second to fourth behind the Tories, Lib Dems and UKIP.

I need to get out and speak to the local candidates (other than Victoria Prentis because she's foul)

It looks like she at least campaigned to Remain.

[zoraster]

Sure, but most Labour voted for it too in the end. 177 of 229 did so, amazingly. Only SNP and LDs really voted convincingly against of the parties with more than 3 MPs.

[zoraster]

I cannot speak to this list's accuracy but I provide it merely as-is: http://e.infogr.am/stop_the_tories-0

[zoraster]

Push comes to shove, the chance of them rejecting coalition with Labour is basically zero. It's just something they say.

[zoraster]

Poro, Is your constituency likely to elect a Tory though? If not, you can make whatever decision you think best.

[zoraster]

?

[zoraster]

They got brexit. No need to vote for the kooks anymore.

[zoraster]

friend's comment:

Blatant anti-Corbyn bias from the electorate in today's results.

[zoraster]

Yeah... I'm not sure I buy that.

[zoraster]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... our-leader

[zoraster]

So basically either we claim that ukip voters have seeped to labour and tories in equal portion as labour voters have seeped away to the tories. Or we say that ukip voters have tended to switch to conservative.

Without any evidence to the contrary, ockhams razor/fewer assumptions seems right. Especially given then similarity between the two party's platform.

Well, what's your argument then? That Labour is going to surprise us all and actually contest the election in June?

I fully accept that the Tories have captured Ukip. But they've also managed to hold onto their other flank while putting out policies to absorb Ukip. And Labour has not been position to do anything at all because Labour's leadership are incompetent nincompoops who deserve to lose.

Like for real. Think about where we were sitting a year ago. None of the Tory leadership wanted Brexit. Lots of tory membership didn't want it either. And yet here we are with a Tory leadership that is gung-ho for hard brexit and they've lost literally no one in their tent. In large part that's because there's no credible opposition party.

[zoraster]

A 2 point reduction is a 7% reduction in their vote share.

[zoraster]

I kind of wonder if the Tories got complacent so they thought "oh hey. We're going to win no matter what. Let's throw all our least popular wishes into the manifesto so we can move forward on them without anyone being able to complain that we didn't warn them."

[zoraster]

It really has been weird. Almost like they viewed their lead as a challenge.

The lead was always going to shrink, of course, but it does seem like an unforced error. Like... she starts strong by saying "oh. whether you're Labour or Tory we need to come together here." but perhaps that manifesto was not a great partner with that message.

[zoraster]

Of course, she's likely to win handily anyway, so maybe better to put it all out there.

[zoraster]

If the Labour Party offered a clear alternative to brexit the idea turnout would be more like the referendum might be a bit more easy to swallow.

[zoraster]

In what way? I don't see much in the difference between the two negotiating the exit. They both essentially face the same problem, which is that the EU member states aren't particularly inclined to give the UK a very good deal.

Their priorities are likely to be somewhat different, but I'm not sure how much is in that.

And I agree that everyone is resigned to Brexit now, but that's because Labour didn't spend any time at all advocating for staying.

[zoraster]

Well right. I don't think it's unreasonable to say "I didn't want this, but now that we have it, I want the best result."

What I'm less clear about is what Corbyn is offering on that front than May.

[zoraster]

I mean.... the EU is pretty a pretty neoliberal institution. But far be it from me to stop you from your talking point.

[zoraster]

No deal is better than a bad deal.

It's hard to imagine a deal bad enough it'd be worse than no deal at all.

[zoraster]

Can you specify? I really don't want to watch two hours of that.

[zoraster]

She was asked whether or not she would walk away from a Brexit deal if she didn't get exactly what she wanted or if she had to pay too much to get what she wanted. She said yes, and that "No deal was better than a bad deal."

Oh. So we're agreeing. That's dumb.

Although it's almost certainly a negotiating position.

[zoraster]

Theresa May is setting herself up to paint the EU as the bad guys when they won't give us a "good-enough" deal. she could be doing a much better job with negotiations.

In what way?

Don't get me wrong. She sounds delusional, and that's not great in a negotiation partner. But a big part of negotiation is the perceived likeliness to walk away from the table. Or in the jargon of negotiation theory, BATNA: Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement.

It's just that those things have to be credible.

[zoraster]

Yeah the basic problem is brexit is a horrible negotiation position for the UK, no matter what your priorities are. It's easy to think "oh, we're big trading partners with the EU so of course they want our trade" but the existential threat of the UK's leaving as well as the political will at home to make sure the UK comes out worse than it went in is pretty much overwhelming. Whether it's Corbyn or May, the room for difference in result is limited. Corbyn may allow more ground on immigration, which can be helpful to UK citizens in the EU and perhaps open up certain other options, but for the most part it'll be coming to terms with the weak position the UK has found itself in.

[zoraster]

Yeah, it's hard to know whether that's an act or not. But ultimately it'll be enforced on her.

In any event, I just have a hard time believing that people will view EU negotiations as the salient, deciding point between May and Corbyn. There are bigger differences. If Labour had made a case for staying in the EU, then it'd be a totally different thing, but there are more important differences between the two.

[zoraster]

I think he probably had to do something in response or else he lets May act like she's in total control of terrorism and has ideas to solve it.

[zoraster]

Just to clarify, you're saying you'll change your avatar for a week if Labour doesn't win and I'd change mine a month if Labour wins? A win in this case is ends up with the Prime Minister position or is it "gets a majority of seats"?

[zoraster]

sure, i'll take that action.

[zoraster]

Only 24 hours until I get to start ragging on Corbyn again.

[zoraster]

the opposite.

[zoraster]

it's stated a little confusingly. Suffice it to say, I do not think there will be a lot of joy for Labour tomorrow. I hope I'm wrong, but if they aren't in a position to scrabble together a coalition, I hope they lose badly and learn some lessons from what should have been a very winnable race.

[zoraster]

Once the election was

announced

Labour has done a fine job. And the Tories have tried their level best to help Labour out. But they were always going to have an immense amount of trouble with this election. What I'd have done differently is mostly everything before the announcement:

1. Never, ever, ever, ever, ever select Jeremy Corbyn. Everything I say after this point is basically second fiddle to this first point.

2. It's tough because of the different constituencies that Labour makes up, but Brexit should never have been allowed to calcify. Labour rolled over on it, and that ceded all potential ground for difference on an issue that they could have won on. Instead, the majority of their MPs voted for the government's brexit proposal. The Brexit campaign was a cynical one that even supporters of Brexit recognized as false in the immediate aftermath, but it was given legitimacy when the opposition decided it wasn't really worth talking about.

[zoraster]

No. He really is not better than Ed Milliband. Owen Smith would have been no great giant of politics, but he would have been better than Corbyn.

And no. It really is not exaggerated. It's not impossible that some situation will occur that Corbyn could be elected, but it will be despite him.

Yes, he's "better than people thought" but that doesn't really go very far because it's basically true of any time people actually have to gut up and decide to vote on someone.

[zoraster]

I think his presence allows the Tories to get away with all manner of terrible things. Brexit itself can be pinned on him. Sure, it can be on the Tories too, but any other Labour leader of the past 20 years wouldn't give mealy-mouthed campaign in favor of Remain.

Ultimately the thing I care most about is not having the Tories in charge, continuing austerity, succumbing to an even deeper loathing of immigrants, decreasing the public nature of the NHS, etc. and I thoroughly reject the idea that Labour under its previous iterations were particularly close to this Tory party. So when I see Corbyn, whose inherent appeal is fairly narrow, I think he does his party harm as the head of it.

Politics is rarely as simple as "unelectable" or not: but we can say that certain things create unnecessary headwinds.

[zoraster]

If it's so popular, I guess we'll see a surprise victory tomorrow.

[zoraster]

we shall see! I think there's a lot of wishful thinking involved. I hope I'm wrong.

[zoraster]

Acknowledging Ashcroft wasn't great in 2015:

[zoraster]

I hope exit polls are closer to correct this time.

[zoraster]

Time for fanciful coalition theorizing!

[zoraster]

Number 1 Fanciful: Sinn Féin

[zoraster]

Tory DUP

If 314, does that put them over? I think it puts them a couple seats shy.

[zoraster]

and just as quickly:

[zoraster]

If exit polls are true, I think this looks pretty much like a minority government. That said... exit polls aren't always very good at this.

[zoraster]

It would make it much more difficult, depending on what the final party breakdown is. There are a lot of possible ways this would work.

My guess is that coalition talks will last a few weeks at least.

Minority governments have a fascinating history in the UK.

[zoraster]

I mean, realistically the exit polls are unlikely to be precisely correct (and could be pretty wrong!) and the number that actually comes in is hugely important.

[zoraster]

Fuller results from Houghton and Sunderland South paint a more complex picture.

Labour’s Bridget Phillipson held the seat with 24,665 votes; that’s 59.6%, up 4.4 points on last time.

Paul Howell for the Conservatives came second on 12,324 – up 11 points on 2015 and benefiting from Ukip falling 16 points. Its candidate, Michael Joyce, came third with 2,379 votes.

Fourth was the Lib Dem Paul Edgeworth on 908. The Green Richard Bradley on 725 was fifth; the independent Mick Watson got 479.

Turnout was 61%.

But the result is a 3.5% swing Labour to Conservative – the opposite to what the exit poll predicted.

[zoraster]

[zoraster]

Let's say Labour does slightly better than the exit polls and can actually form some sort of coalition government. Do the LDs get their wish of a second referendum?

[zoraster]

Another Labour win but a swing to Conservatives.

[zoraster]

Tories doing poorly relative to expectations?

[zoraster]

Yeah. The collapse of UKIP leads to some volatility.

Also, I think the SNP story-line will be interesting to watch as Labour does stand to gain some ground there, but not in a way that is meaningful for governance.

[zoraster]

Boris Johnson and Donald Trump. Oh boy.

[zoraster]

Dare I quote a Sun editor? Yuck

[zoraster]

Yeah. Im not believing that. Everything (sans scotland) Im seeing is suggesting that conservatives are doing worse than the exit polls

Scotland the counteracting force here. Labour can pick up Snp seats but not that impactful. Tories pick up some snp seats and its a big deal

[zoraster]

yeah. not taking that.

i still win my bet, though. doesn't really feel like i should but... whatever.

[zoraster]

Would you have bet on a Tory majority?

Probably. Maybe not at at a 4:1 ratio though.

[zoraster]

The Tories lost this election.

But they might have won this election also.

Confused?

Welcome to the UK Elections

Not that confusing really. Not having the majority is the norm in most parliamentary systems!

Alternatively, in a presidential system, having a 3 point popular vote lead over your nearest opponent usually means you win.

What's kind of confusing is the myriad ways a government can get formed now.

[zoraster]

Things will be messier, but I'm not sure that makes much of a difference for what's "best for Britain" in reality. May's position with a large majority would have been better in the sense that the EU couldn't try to use division at home as a wedge, but I'm not sure they really ever needed to do that anyway.

Anyway, it's possible that the Tories manage to scrape a coalition together with DUP, considering Sinn Fein won't sit. I'm not positive, but I think that puts the required number at 321 or 322 (311 or 312 in a coalition with DUP).

--

I do wonder how republicans will react to DUP being in a Westminster coalition. It actually might mean they go for a more limited role, not joining government but supporting it.

[zoraster]

I imagine Brexit negotiations take on an even greater emphasis on Northern Ireland.

[zoraster]

why when people come in to announce news do they not link to things?

[zoraster]

also Conservatives+DUP is a majority even with Sinn Fein I think?

[zoraster]

i guess.

[zoraster]

what do you mean by "succeeded"?

[zoraster]

I guess if we're going for funny, sure. But in reality that's using mismanaged and dysfunctional in two different ways. The Tories wanted to put into place a lot of pretty extreme policies (or continue to do so) and were fine with a Hard Brexit, or at least pretended to be. The election was designed to allow them to more effectively do that. They would have been pretty functional at doing so had they received a large majority, whatever you believe about the merits or morality of doing that.

[zoraster]

theoretically 2022 now, Wraith.

[zoraster]

I would always, always rather a result that leads to something I dislike somewhat over one that I dislike a lot. I don't care whatsoever that someone else would love the thing I dislike a lot. That's not a

selling

point, myko.

[zoraster]

I mean, May called an election with the hopes it'd change the parameters she worked under for Brexit, why can't that go the other way? Plenty of systems purposefully put into place systems that don't allow for quick changes of constitutions and other systemic changes to governance. The referendum was "advisory," after all.

[zoraster]

It seems pretty democratic to me to continue to vote on the major proceedings of state. The government at the point of time of the referendum carried out the first steps. The people voted and didn't give them a majority. If another party comes into power with a different agenda (leaving aside whether anyone but SNP and LD did that), then there's no reason to believe that isn't just the normal workings of democracy.

[zoraster]

It's not even been a year since the referendum, and the conservatives, in charge of that brexit, lost 13 seats, a whole 2 percent of the house of commons.

my position is they lose more seats if Labour ran on a platform of no Brexit, or at the very least another referendum

If this was true the Lib Dems would have done better.
If Labour had run on a platform of a second referendum, they would have lost more of their northern England seats (lots of Leave voters up there).

If people change their opinions enough over the next year a second referendum might become a viable option then (albeit then it becomes trickier to get EU agreement if people vote to stay in).

One nice thing about Labour not offering to reverse Brexit completely is this election shows quite clearly that people didn't want to give Tories a mandate for hard Brexit and further austerity Compared with it being unclear whether people voted Labour because they're against austerity or against Brexit or both.

I think LD were fighting uphill for reasons that had little to do with their position on Brexit.

[zoraster]

I dont think he's saying that the libdems didnt get too many votes cuz of their unbrexit stamce, but that if a pro-unbrexit stance would have been the right thing to do for labour then the libdems would have done better, since they didnt one can assume that Corbyn was maybe not such a dumbass for choosing to not die on that hill

Uh I mean I guess it makes sense, but that's what I'm responding to.

I don't think LD's pro-Brexit stance is what stopped them from getting more seats. LD's did have a net gain, after all. I don't think that logically means it was the right policy for Labour to take as their potential constituencies are different.

[zoraster]

they've resigned. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40231107

[zoraster]

well that's pretty big news!

[zoraster]

Looks like they're denying it

[zoraster]

Davidson: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -breakaway

[zoraster]

nick clegg to me seemed fine with the exception of the poorly considered coalition deal. But that was a pretty big one.

[zoraster]

Bumping this. Had discussions in other places, but given an election is relatively likely to be agreed on for mid-december, here we go!

You'd imagine such a dysfunctional government would lead to major losses, but that's not what appears to be most likely now.

[zoraster]

idk if its actually going to pass, its needs 2/3s of mps. all opposition parties except labour oppose it, and plenty of individual labour mps oppose it even if corbyn decides to support it.

Do they? I'd imagine LDs are itching for an election that focuses on Brexit.

Only SNP seems really anti general election? But even then, I'm not sure they're anti GE so much as anti passing a bunch of brexit bills in advance of it, which is fair enough. Will Johnson waver on that? I'm not sure, but I'm more confident in that than I was a GE was likely mid-October.

[zoraster]

"Labour appears poised to block Boris Johnson’s offer of a pre-Christmas general election on 12 December by telling MPs to abstain in Monday’s vote.

The party has previously said that it would back an early election when a no-deal Brexit scenario could be firmly ruled out, and has twice rejected attempts by Johnson to go to the polls before 2022."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... l-election

right but to me this isn't an outright rejection of the GE, reading between the lines. I have to believe that Johnson really

does

want a GE and does want his crummy deal, which if he wins a larger majority and gets rid of Tory rebels (which I assume is the purpose of the withdrawal of the whip) he can do without having to worry about the DUP. And if that's the case, he's going to be willing to make those assurances. He doesn't need to negotiate with the EU anymore either, so his "reasoning" for not ruling out no-deal isn't there.

Of course, Labour might reject it even so because they know they're going to lose in the GE. But eventually Labour is actually going to have to contest an election. And if Europe isn't convinced that Labour is going to allow a GE until 2022, why would it agree to an extension at all? Just allow a no-deal brexit or Johnson's deal to go through and finally be done with this.

[zoraster]

Labour might reject it even so because they know they're going to lose in the GE.

how in the world is this the situation

Because, and keep in mind that there are many on this board who vehemently disagree with me, Corbyn is horrible. There are lots of other reasons, but if I had to point to just one reason...

[zoraster]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-50221856 Labour appears to be on board.

[zoraster]

Polls indicate Conservatives, but (and from an American standpoint this sounds absurd) we're early in the process. http://britainelects.com

[zoraster]

That's not really unusual is it? These have been the GE dates of the past 30 years:

April 9, May 1, June 7, May 5, 6 May, 7 May, 8 June

Even Oxford, which barely deigns to ever be in session, was in session for all of those except April 9th.

[zoraster]

As an old fuddy-duddy myself, I'm still going to say that this isn't a particularly important element. I don't think the Tories did it to reduce the youth vote, and I don't know that it'd make much difference if it was slotted in somewhere slightly more convenient for students.

And keep in mind that being in term isn't all downside as peer pressure and cognizance is going to be highest among those who are still in term.

[zoraster]

in any event, if Tories are really polling at 40% I don't think tactical voting can save the other parties.

[zoraster]

i assume that's a joke lol

[zoraster]

btw as much as i detest Corbyn, i'd be extremely happy if they can hang parliament and find a way to come to a coalition government.

[zoraster]

yeah the tories are reprehensible and no one should vote for them. My take is tactically vote, so...

[zoraster]

what constituency, poro? my take is you need to decide whether stymieing brexit/making sure tories don't get a majority is worth the potential for a second Scotland independence referendum or not. Because from a mainly defeating tories standpoint, vote the party that gives the best chance of that, and it sounds like that's SNP. If not, vote your conscience but accept that's a vote that, however likely inconsequential, might mean tories gain power.

[zoraster]

i don't think sturgeon pushes for it very hard if brexit is averted or substantially changed, no, but putting snp in position to be kingmaker does pose that risk.

LDs probably come to some deal with Labour short of actually joining government unless Labour wants to give up Corbyn. I think that's probably the right move for them. Alternatively, just let the Tories flounder even more in a minority government.

Still, this is all academic.

[zoraster]

So yeah... do you prefer certain brexit in the styling of Johnson plus all the other goodies that come with a Tory majority or do you prefer a messy coalition government with a chance at a second referendum? I'd vote SNP in this case myself, but obviously I have the luxury of not facing another independence referendum.

[zoraster]

Still, this is all academic.

i'll avatar bet u that it hangs

Eh Sure. 2 weeks, avatar set to something not-inappropriate. If the Tories don't capture at least a majority of the held seats (so not including Sinn Fein, speaker, etc.), I get to set yours. If they don't, you get to set mine.

Feel like this is win, win for me.

Sound good?

[zoraster]

so is that turkey. But all good things must die.

[zoraster]

relax. you have like 11.5 months until the next thanksgiving.

[zoraster]

sure, but i think gobble is american and except for my weird family much to my chagrin, most don't seem to do turkey twice in the span of a month.

[zoraster]

Where is the best spot to watch live coverage?

any UK news site is probably fine, but they don't really cover anything of worth until polls close when they can release their exit polling.

[zoraster]

An almost-English speaking country that joins the EU may get to host a lot of businesses! A New London! Dublin! Etc.

I'm sorta joking. It was a dumb move before and it's probably still a dumb move to go independent.

[zoraster]

Well. On the plus side I get to set someone's avatar. On the other...

well, actually on the other maybe Labour will come to its senses and stop supporting Corbyn.

[zoraster]

Whenever you're confident you lost the bet, you can change your avatar and start the clock, Xtoxm!

[zoraster]

i have mixed feelings about Blair personally.

[zoraster]

I don't think the tories are going to give indyref2.

[zoraster]

Just want to point out that Tony Blair, who has his faults certainly, is the only Labour leader since Harold Wilson in 1974 to win an election for Labour.

[zoraster]

Yes, blame me for selecting the man who was -40 favorability as your party leader.

[zoraster]

what's the likelihood that murdoch tolerates blair now? he's got so much better stuff!