Open 64 - Vengeful Mafia - (Game Over!!) before 551

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

OMG kill the scum.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Gee, I posted 13 hours before you said you'd like to hear more from me. Harsh crowd this is.

Um, I don't particularly understand xtoxm's self vote. In fact, I don't like it. At all. Scum could very easily hammer, and even if the vengeful kill was on scum, we would still be left with one scum, two townies, and no clues whatsoever. So

FOS: xtoxm

. Possibly he just didn't think through that maneuver, or possibly he's scum.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I disagree that we're in a particularly worse situation with 2 townies and 1 scum as opposed to 3 townies and 2 scum. . .

We aren't, but our chances of winning go up significantly if we lynch scum today. So if xtoxm is indeed a townie as he claims, risking that lynch puts us in a worse position than it would have otherwise.

but if you think that's such a viable anti-town strategy, why have you openly posted it? And why haven't you demanded Xtoxm unvote? It seems like you're really jumping to the conclusion he's scum.

These are questions generated specifically to make me look bad. The scum are, presumably, not stupid. If you and xtox aren't the two scum, then I guarantee they didn't need me to tell them that they can quicklynch right now. And demand he unvote? He doesn't have to listen. I've made it clear I think its a bad idea, and he can do what he wants to from there. As for "jumping to the conclusion he's scum", wouldn't I have lynched him if I had jumped to that conclusion? I even said in my post "possibly he didn't think it through, because I think that's a distinct possibility.

You basically suspect him of being scum because he did something which would benefit scum, but only if he, himself, was town.

Sort of like calling me out for posting an anti-town strategy that if I was scum and really believed was anti-town,

I'd have used it myself.

Am I suspect too for not unvoting?

No. But I do suspect you.

Vote: TheStranger.

PS: Xtoxm, if I were scum, I would have hammered. I do agree that I don't terribly like lloyd's analysis, but I think he might have been just trying to jumpstart the game.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Only if you assume the town could lynch scum otherwise.

I suggest you all look at the numbers on the wiki. It is not in our interest to lynch town today. Its not in our interest to lynch town at all.

I would think a townie would expect such questions, since they're pretty much the only way to find scum. How are my questions "specifically to make you look bad" any different from questions to try to find scum?

You should, I think, recall Newbie 470, in which you said something along the lines of "TSPN makes good arguments with good logic," but then you voted for me anyway, because the evidence was against me. The reason I sounded good is because I was out to score points. I didn't need to convince myself that DLS was scum. You don't sound like you need to convince yourself that I'm scum. You sound like you're out to score points, and that's what I meant. The semantics of whether or not I out-and-out stated that I wanted xtox to unvote himself are not terribly relevant.

No, but you've personally endorsed quicklynching as a scum strategy. You've explained exactly why they should do it too. And since it's a suicide tactic anyway, you pointing it out doesn't reduce it's effectiveness at all.

Never claimed it did. But I'll poll the rest of the class: Was anyone unaware that they could hammer when xtoxm was at L-1?

Your words say "maybe town" but your actions say "maybe scum." Throwing in "but maybe he's town anyway" doesn't change the fact that he's now one of your top two suspects, less than a page into the game.

What actions are those, exactly? An FOS? A suggestion that he might be making a mistake? And second out of four isn't exactly the same as second out of eleven.

So you're not scum because you did what scum wouldn't do? Sounds like basic Wifom to me.

Oh, of course. I might be scum that doesn't actually think quicklynching is the right play. I might be scum hoping that my partner would quicklynch, be vigged, and then I would look rosy on Day 2. Its certainly possible. But my point wasn't that me not hammering makes me town, its that you called me out for suspecting xtoxm of "being scum because he did something which would benefit scum, but only if he, himself, was town" when that is precisely your case against me.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Obviously, I disagree on what I did being a mistake, because, I repeat, its only a mistake if the scum are fools. In which case I'd be town anyway, and I'll remind you I never voted for xtoxm. The largest reason I think he's scum is that I would have anticipated the scum hammering because that's what I would have done. WIFOM, I know, but still true.

Again, to the members of the jury: TheStranger is playing semantics games. He is entirely too certain, based on one post (my second post of the game, on Page One), that I'm scum, and he's not really scumhunting, he's interested in scoring points.

Oh, and Lloyd, Newbie 470, I was scum and he was town. I was trying to get the one player who could be scum if I wasn't lynched because that was my only way out, and I didn't really care what she said, because there was no way I could be convinced. TheStranger doesn't really care what I'm saying, he just wants me lynched.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

It did occur to me that your certainty was making me overly certain myself, which is a trap I don't really want to fall into.

However, I disagree about the numbers not applying. In the scenario of a townie quicklynch, even assuming an accurate vig kill, we still only have a 33.3 percent chance of winning. If we lynch scum, we have a 50 percent chance of winning immediately and even then have three more lynches in which to get the last remaining scum. Its seriously not in the town's interest to encourage self-lynch, which is why xtoxm's play was anti-town, which, no, does not necessarily make him scum, but still a bad play.

And yeah, I'd like to hear more from xtoxm and yvonne. As much fun as arguing with you is. . . I'd particularly like to hear xtoxm's thoughts on our argument over his play.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Alright, whatever. Apply your own numbers. What do you think the odds of two townies lynching one mafia are? Then ask yourself what the odds of three mafia lynching one townies are, and add them to the same odds of two townies lynching one mafia are. Then consider the odds of the first lynched townie guessing wrong. Then factor in the possibility of lynching the godfather day 1. Then come back and tell me we shouldn't worry about lynching scum day 1.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Fine, I

will

respond as I see fit.

At this point, I'm leaning toward letting xtoxm off the hook. Evidently he wasn't the only person who didn't think through the numbers. Which is not to say he isn't scum, because he hasn't really contributed much to the game except for that (possibly inadvertent) anti-town play.

I still think thestranger's scum. I know, I'm too certain, etc, etc. But I feels it in my bones.

Yvonne and lloyd have also been semi-lurking, so there's not a lot to read off of them. But in general, although I'm not a big fan of yvonne's conclusion (obviously), I like her analysis, so that's a small point in her favor.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I disagree with TheStranger not voting for me as being suspicious. That would put me at L-1, and as I hope I've bludgeoned into everyone,

a quicklynch is in the scum's favor.

Doesn't matter how obvious it is, a town lynch is bad news. We shouldn't lynch or even put anyone at L-1 until we're sure. As much as I usually despise FOS's, they are the way to go today.

I agree. Instead of math of random voters, I would rather focus on posts in this game.

The random math becomes relevant when two players are arguing that we're no worse off with two mafia/one townie than our current situation.

2. It was very hasty to immediately jump on TheStranger considering that Xtoxm's self-vote should have been examined more closely but instead TSPN went on with a debate with TheStranger while Xtoxm got out of the mess.

Well, xtoxm wasn't around, and my examination of xtoxm's vote was being directly challenged. I don't really see him as out of the mess. I am leaning toward him being town, but I haven't forgotten that he put himself at L-1 and no one hammered, which, to be honest, is still somewhat inconceivable to me unless, of course, he is scum. But

evidently

I have to consider the possibility that the scum were not aware of the benefits to the quicklynch.

And yvonne: WIFOM, I know, but as scum, why would I do what I did? What are my motivations for calling out xtoxm's vote as a bad idea?

And xtoxm: Going back to vote of me: Look at my reaction and Yvonne's reaction. Between the two of us, am I really the one who seems uncertain in that situation?

Man, for some reason this game really gets my blood up. Sorry for more long rantish posts.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Yvonne may well be uncertain too, but after I read through all your reaction's, your's hit me as uncertain.

At what point, in your eyes, did I become certain? Could I ask you to be more specific?

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Well, it seems to me, between having a multiple post argument, linking to the wiki, and spelling out the exact statistical reasoning why town lynch = bad, at some point I became pretty damn certain. Truth be told, I was always certain, so I'm really questioning your original diagnosis.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Right. . . but I'm the one who pointed out the wiki. Am I to understand your argument as I could have hammered but didn't because I didn't know it was a good idea for me-as-scum to do so, only to then read the wiki and figure out it was a good idea, which I had by sheer coincidence argued earlier in the game?

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

This game, specifically, I meant.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I think he meant reaching in a depth sense, as in we spent too much time arguing to be scumbuddies. Which is true.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I've been slowly starting to think the same thing, actually. I thought your response initially had more substance, while xtoxm's was just based on me being "uncertain." Which I wasn't, and it never made any sense, so I focused on your response and then we started debating finer statistics and I got distracted. I'm starting to feel an yvonne-xtoxm scumpair.

Consider that xtoxm self-votes, and yvonne says "classic townie move," I say "bad idea", thestranger FOS's me, and then xtoxm votes me for being uncertain, without even mentioning yvonne. Later, yvonne asks him "why it was a pro-town move," and xtoxm ignores her. Then, later, xtoxm says its been a few days since yvonne said she was going to post a summary. Its sort of like xtoxm really wants yvonne to keep playing, but doesn't really want to examine her play. Even yvonne's analysis concludes with her being "on the fence" about xtoxm.

So, I'm going to

unvote

for now. I don't want to put xtoxm at L-1 without some more discussion, but I'm starting to swing back to thinking of the self-vote as a scum gambit.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Despite what TheSweatpantsNinja wrote, I don't like how he unvoted without FOS'ing nor voting for Xtoxm.

Vote: TheSweatpantsNinja for that plus earlier Wifom-ish posts, which now puts TheSweatpantsNinja at L-1.

FOS: Xtoxm and YvonneSeer for not posting substantively in responses to them being a possible pair, as both SweatpantsNinja and I pointed out earlier.

So you're voting me (putting me at L-1) because even though you like what I said, because I didn't put xtoxm at L-1, which, as I

hope

I've made eminently clear, is a bad idea unless we're fairly confident we've found scum. And I didn't specifically FOS him? This is the second time I've been attacked on semantics this game. Silly me, I thought saying, "I don't want to put him at L-1 without more discussion" made it clear enough that I suspected him. And my finger suspects him too.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

No, I got the sarcasm, but it seemed like a weaker version of saying what I said. So the fact that xtoxm called out me instead of you for uncertainty struck me as odd.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Hmm hmm hmm. I almost feel baited.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Ah, hell. I spent half an hour going back and forth and back and forth, but I'm going to

vote: xtoxm.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

No, I'm not scum. Everyone had voted except me.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Probably should have finished that thought: Everyone had voted except me, so there didn't seem to be a lot else to talk about, and the player I found most scummy was one of the players at L-1.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Uh. . . in a game where 50 percent of the people who aren't me are scum, I seriously hope my most scummy candidate is scum, or I'll be a little embarrassed.

I'd love to continue this, but I have to go to work, so further discussion will have to wait until we actually have results.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

This post will be full of WIFOM. I concede this up front, but I still think my arguments will be sound.

If I am scum: Then I am gf, xtoxm distanced by voting me early in the game, and I repaid him back by hammering when I could have just as easily hammered lloyd. Hammering xtoxm, of course, have been a terrible play, but I could have been WIFOMing for the win.

If TheStranger is scum: Then the "random" vote and the L-1 self-vote was a planned tactic. I suspected this at the beginning of the game, but TheStranger had ample opportunity to reasonably change his vote (to me, to lloyd) and did not. I think it is unlikely he is scum.

If Lloyd is scum: Then xtoxm put his gf at L-1. Considering that I had already implied I would vote xtoxm, this is not an absolute clearance, but its certainly a risky play. Lloyd also put me at L-1 and no one hammered. Lloyd also would have bussed xtoxm, which is certainly conceivable. I think it is possible lloyd is scum.

If yvonne is scum: Then the strange ways yvonne and xtoxm interacted seem worth noticing indeed. Also, not on the xtoxm lynch. I think it is probable yvonne is scum.

The nice thing about lynching correctly Day 1 is that we can afford a mislynch, but obviously we should still try and be right this time. What I find most interesting about the day is the votes leading up to the hammer.

TheStranger was voting for xtoxm, xtoxm was voting for me, I was voting for TheStranger.

I unvote.
Lloyd votes me.
xtoxm unvotes.
Yvonne votes lloyd.
lloyd votes xtoxm.
xtoxm votes lloyd.
I hammer.

If xtoxm and lloyd are scum, then xtoxm's unvote doesn't on me doesn't make much sense. Since every other player had expressed suspicion for me, it wouldn't have been all that much of a reach to let yvonne or thestranger hammer. Even if I ignore the hammerer and dayvig xtoxm, there's still a good chance that the hammerer gets lynched tomorrow.

If xtoxm and yvonne are scum, then xtoxm's unvote makes more sense. He could have let yvonne hammer me, but then I might dayvig xtoxm and it would be yvonne who caught the heat.

So,

vote: yvonne.

Will be very much interested to hear what the stranger and lloyd have to say.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I'm going to start with the obvious: I could've hammered lloyd. I thought about it. I thought his unexplained vote, when I was the only player who hadn't voted, to the player I most suspected. Not being certain that xtoxm was scum, I suspected that lloyd was trying to get me to hammer town. Hence, feeling baited.

Post 14-TSPN fos's Xtoxm for his self-vote, says it clearly benefits scum and xtoxm is either scum or didn't think his move through. I don't like this post because it doesn't make any attempt to reason with xtoxm or tell him to unvote. He views the situation as an observer and not an active participant. Assuming TSPN is scum this is clearly because he expects Xtoxm to get the point and knows that he doesn't need to put any actual effort into changing his mind as a regular townie might.

We've been over this before, but this is essentially a semantics attack. Just because I didn't specifically say "You should unvote," doesn't mean I wasn't thinking that when I say "this is a bad idea."

I don't like this, mainly because it looks like he's directing Xtoxm. Compare this to his earlier FOS and overall lack of diplomacy, now he seems to have no suspicion even as Xtoxm continues to vote him.

Directed him so well he voted for lloyd. And didn't you suspect me post 14 for not directing him?

post 73-TSPN votes Xtoxm saying he spent a half hour going back and forth. I don't like this partly because both he and Xtxom expressed interest in further discussion and partly because earlier I specified I didn't want anyone hammering without a few posts' notice. It makes sense to me for TSPN to pick Xtoxm over Lloyd, after all, lloyd was voting Xtoxm anyway, and would probably use his vig on Xtoxm or TSPN(for hammering him and doing it so quickly) either way there's a perfect trail back to the other, so if we assume they are partners, this final Bus makes total sense.

Um, no. Again, if I were scum, would've hammered town. The benefits of hammering town vastly outweigh the benefits of hammering scum. WIFOM is not an dismissal. Especially considering that all of our attacks are going to be based in explaining why people acted the way they did.

Your second post is false. I am more likely to list reasoning for myself, because that's just what I do. Didn't really think it was a scumtell to compare my activities with everyone else's.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I keep using WIFOM. . . because I think claiming "WIFOM!" is a stupid argument. We have no information that is not clouded by people attempting to hide their motivations.

Perhaps in general hammering town is better. But in this particular set of circumstances it wouldn't make sense(assuming you and xtoxm are scum) The connection between you guys seems pretty obvious to me, especially later when you wouldn't put him at L-1 and he unvoted you when you were at L-1. Let's not forget that hammering lloyd(we are assuming he's town) would result in a vengance kill. Xtoxm was lloyd's #1 suspect anyway. The only other player he'd voted all day was you, TSPN, so I don't see how you could reasonably hammer town without one of you dying anyway. Ultimately it makes perfect sense to bus in the end. And your final vote also seems too quick to be anything but a bus. If you hammer like that on anything but scum there's a good chance you get vig'd in retribution. Saying "If I were scum I wouldn't do that" doesn't make all this logic go away.

Oh, of course it doesn't. But I'd rather have people at least considering 'would scum have done this?' then just saying WIFOM! (yvonne) and then, er, voting me because I did something scum would do, because there's no inherent contradiction there.

Well for what possible reason would you say it than to lower suspicion on yourself? That seems like something scum would be thinking about far more than town. I would expect scum to be comparing the case against them to everyone else's and that basically what you did.

I can only really say "you're wrong" to this. I don't have a lengthy meta record to point to. But as town or scum, I have a vested interest in reducing my own suspicion. Don't you?

If anything, this implicates you more as Xtoxm's GF than me, since Lloyd voted you and placed you at L-1 in Post 61 and Xtoxm immediately unvoted in Post 62. Hmm, that is very suspicious. It's a good thing I looked back.

If we do lynch Lloyd and he is not the GF, I'll be voting for you tomorrow.

Yeah, I know it does. Xtoxm framed me, but the only way I can prove it is by being lynched. Which I suspect will happen. That said, you know who really has to be worried about the next

two

lynches? Scum, that's who.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Yeah, I know it does. Xtoxm framed me, but the only way I can prove it is by being lynched.

But since I'm town, I think its most likely that yvonne is xtoxm's scumbuddy.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Activity?

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Can we get some prods out?

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Unexpected victory! Yay town!

I concede, I lost my cool Day 1 and it led me to be too certain toward thestranger. I tend to assume that other people spend as much time thinking about numbers as I do, and I got frustrated/was disbelieving when my numbers were questioned. But I turned it around successfully. . . y'know, when I was given a choice between hammering either of the scum.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

What was your reasoning behind the self-voting move?