Open 64 - Vengeful Mafia - (Game Over!!) before 551

[TheStranger]

Let's remember to make decent cases in this game, considering that person you're lynching will be able to vig you if you're wrong. Of course this will likely prove challenging in such a short game. An early deadline could easily hand this game to scum, and I will personally go after lurkers if necessary.


That said,

Random

vote: Xtoxm

I don't think we need to worry about quicklynches, since scum will be quickly recognized and counter-vig'd. I am worried about semiquicklynches, if a townie should lynch too quickly and get counter-vig'd solely on principle. I think it's important player's give something like a 2 post warning before hammering, at least on day 1.

[TheStranger]

Um, I don't particularly understand xtoxm's self vote. In fact, I don't like it. At all. Scum could very easily hammer, and even if the vengeful kill was on scum, we would still be left with one scum, two townies, and no clues whatsoever. So

FOS: xtoxm

. Possibly he just didn't think through that maneuver, or possibly he's scum.

I disagree that we're in a particularly worse situation with 2 townies and 1 scum as opposed to 3 townies and 2 scum, but if you think that's such a viable anti-town strategy, why have you openly posted it? And why haven't you demanded Xtoxm unvote? It seems like you're really jumping to the conclusion he's scum.

You basically suspect him of being scum because he did something which would benefit scum, but only if he, himself, was town.

Am I suspect too for not unvoting?

[TheStranger]

I disagree that we're in a particularly worse situation with 2 townies and 1 scum as opposed to 3 townies and 2 scum. . .

We aren't, but our chances of winning go up significantly if we lynch scum today. So if xtoxm is indeed a townie as he claims, risking that lynch puts us in a worse position than it would have otherwise.

Only if you assume the town could lynch scum otherwise.

but if you think that's such a viable anti-town strategy, why have you openly posted it? And why haven't you demanded Xtoxm unvote? It seems like you're really jumping to the conclusion he's scum.

These are questions generated specifically to make me look bad.

I would think a townie would expect such questions, since they're pretty much the only way to find scum. How are my questions "specifically to make you look bad" any different from questions to try to find scum?

The scum are, presumably, not stupid. If you and xtox aren't the two scum, then I guarantee they didn't need me to tell them that they can quicklynch right now.

No, but you've personally endorsed quicklynching as a scum strategy. You've explained exactly why they should do it too. And since it's a suicide tactic anyway, you pointing it out doesn't reduce it's effectiveness at all.

And demand he unvote? He doesn't have to listen.

So we should never try to convince another player to do something since they don't have to listen? Even IF he doesn't listen, you can threaten to vote or hammer him if he won't unvote. You've stated your opinion, but you aren't backing it up with any action

I've made it clear I think its a bad idea, and he can do what he wants to from there.

That's very passive approach.

As for "jumping to the conclusion he's scum", wouldn't I have lynched him if I had jumped to that conclusion? I even said in my post "possibly he didn't think it through, because I think that's a distinct possibility.

Your words say "maybe town" but your actions say "maybe scum." Throwing in "but maybe he's town anyway" doesn't change the fact that he's now one of your top two suspects, less than a page into the game

You basically suspect him of being scum because he did something which would benefit scum, but only if he, himself, was town.

Sort of like calling me out for posting an anti-town strategy that if I was scum and really believed was anti-town,

I'd have used it myself.

So you're not scum because you did what scum wouldn't do? Sounds like basic Wifom to me.

[TheStranger]

Oh, of course. I might be scum that doesn't actually think quicklynching is the right play. I might be scum hoping that my partner would quicklynch, be vigged, and then I would look rosy on Day 2. Its certainly possible. But my point wasn't that me not hammering makes me town, its that you called me out for suspecting xtoxm of "being scum because he did something which would benefit scum, but only if he, himself, was town" when that is precisely your case against me.

So you admit that based on your standards, you should be suspected as much as Xtoxm, since you've made a similar mistake to his? Don't you think it's fair for a player to be held to his own standards? Whether or not I actually suspect you for it is irrelevant.

[TheStranger]

I think TSPN is too certain I'm scum, after I've made only three posts. My questions were intentionally over-aggressive, and I particularly don't like a few of his responses to this "preassure."


Btw I'm glad the wiki was mentioned, because I did not knonw there was one. I see now that the mod even hyperlinked it in the first post. But the numbers you refer to, TSPN, don't really apply to the current situation. They're based on random votes and random vigs which is certainly not how the game is played, and it's not how a quicklynch like that would work either.

I want to hear something from Yvonne...

[TheStranger]

Well it's not quite that the numbers don't apply at all, they do provide a general picture. But I think it's a mistake to base our decicisons on how random voters would fair.

[TheStranger]

looking for some new input, if anyone has any.

[TheStranger]

I've accused TSPN of doing a few scummy things, but I'm by no means convinced he's scum.

And my vote is still random.

[TheStranger]

that was in reference to lloyd's post

[TheStranger]

Xtoxm, how are any of my statements about TSPN reaching? I only expressed what I thought and where I saw contradictions to allow him to respond appropriately. I never said he was scum or that I was particularly disatisfied with his answers. I made my thoughts and questions clear, why would i be any less lucid about my suspicions?

[TheStranger]

Oh, I see.

I also don't like Yvonne accussing me of baiting TSPN. If someone does something unreasonable in your eyes it's wrong to bring it up? Somehow that's baiting, but Xtoxm voting himself, then voting TSPN for accusing him and return-accusing him of "sounding like scum" somehow isn't baiting. I guess because TSPN responded to me but not Xtoxm?

I can't totally blame her though, because I somewhat missed this point too at the time. Xtoxm clearly escalated the situation with his vote and accusation, building off my points, and yet TSPN really shrugs that off and even calls ME too sure.

FOS

both of them, but consider my Xtoxm vote non-random now(though of course I don't think we should lynch him for it)

[TheStranger]

I think you guys are being too cautious about putting players at L-1. There is a purpose for preassure votes.

[TheStranger]

Xtoxm and TSPN
Post 9-Xtoxm self votes
Post 14-TSPN fos's Xtoxm for his self-vote, says it clearly benefits scum and xtoxm is either scum or didn't think his move through. I don't like this post because it doesn't make any attempt to reason with xtoxm or tell him to unvote. He views the situation as an observer and not an active participant. Assuming TSPN is scum this is clearly because he expects Xtoxm to get the point and knows that he doesn't need to put any actual effort into changing his mind as a regular townie might.
Post 17-I call TSPN for the reason above and a few other criticisms
Post 18-Xtoxm says he likes my response. Calls post 14 a "maneuver" and accuses TSPN of sounding like scum unsure of whether to hammer. He then votes TSPN
post 19-TSPN responds to all my points. He doesn't see how he could possibly change Xtoxm's mind about self-voting. Says he's made it clear he thinks it's a bad idea and Xtoxm can do what he wants from there. After responding to my criticism, he votes me without giving any reasons. only after this does he respond to Xtoxm(who has actually voted him) in a P.S. saying he would have hammered Xtoxm if he was scum(total wifom). I don't like how he votes me when I made clear my problems and asked for a response, but only casually responds to Xtoxm who not only voted him but gave minimal reasoning. It's as if my opinion somehow "counts" more when I have neither directly accused him nor voted him as Xtoxm has.
Post 24-TSPN reminds everyone that I'm too sure he's scum, when I have still neither voted not accused him nor argued anyone should vote him and also while Xtoxm is still voting him with little reasoning.
Post 25-Xtoxm says he didn't know the numbers/statistics and thought getting hammered by scum woud be an good trade-off. I don't like this post because he plays off the situation in exactly the way TSPN said he should if he wasn't scum.(TSPN:he's either scum or he didn't think it through) This is also the ideal way to allow TSPN to drop the whole case against Xtoxm.
Post 37-TSPN says he's leaning towards letting Xtoxm "off the hook". Says he still thinks I'm scum, knows he's too certain, but "feels it in his bones"
Post 42:

And xtoxm: Going back to vote of me: Look at my reaction and Yvonne's reaction. Between the two of us, am I really the one who seems uncertain in that situation?

I don't like this, mainly because it looks like he's directing Xtoxm. Compare this to his earlier FOS and overall lack of diplomacy, now he seems to have no suspicion even as Xtoxm continues to vote him.
post 45-51-a short dialogue between Xtoxm and TSPN still doesn't mention any particular suspicion of Xtoxm.
post 59-I bring up my problem with TSPN's lack of response to Xtoxm.
post 60-TSPN says he's been slowly starting to suspect Xtoxm. Deosn't want to put him at L-1 without further discussion.
Post 61-lloyd votes TSPN
post 62-Xtoxm finally unvotes TSPN after voting him since the beginning of the game. Says he wants more discussion. I think I'll let this speak for itself.
post 67-TSPN explains his suspicion of Xtoxm more clearly
post 68-lloyd changes his vote to xtoxm without any reasoning
post 69-TSPN says he "feels baited". I don't know why he'd feel that way when he calims to suspect Xtoxm.
post 70-Lloyd explains that he agrees with TSPN
post 71-Xtoxm votes lloyd. this puts both Xtoxm and Lloyd at L-1, and leaves TSPN as the only one not voting.
post 73-TSPN votes Xtoxm saying he spent a half hour going back and forth. I don't like this partly because both he and Xtxom expressed interest in further discussion and partly because earlier I specified I didn't want anyone hammering without a few posts' notice. It makes sense to me for TSPN to pick Xtoxm over Lloyd, after all, lloyd was voting Xtoxm anyway, and would probably use his vig on Xtoxm or TSPN(for hammering him and doing it so quickly) either way there's a perfect trail back to the other, so if we assume they are partners, this final Bus makes total sense.

in conclusion,

Vote: TSPN

I will say this once again: I DON'T WANT ANYONE HAMMERING WITHOUT A FEW POSTS' NOTICE! If you do so I WILL assume you're scum and vote you tommorow. If you're town this means pretty much an insta-lose.

[TheStranger]

One more thing, I don't like how TSPN lists reasoning for himself in post 83. Notice he's the only player to do that, and it's something I expect more from scum than town. Scum automatically consider other player's reasoning on them more than a townie would.

[TheStranger]

I'm in italics.

Post 14-TSPN fos's Xtoxm for his self-vote, says it clearly benefits scum and xtoxm is either scum or didn't think his move through. I don't like this post because it doesn't make any attempt to reason with xtoxm or tell him to unvote. He views the situation as an observer and not an active participant. Assuming TSPN is scum this is clearly because he expects Xtoxm to get the point and knows that he doesn't need to put any actual effort into changing his mind as a regular townie might.

We've been over this before, but this is essentially a semantics attack. Just because I didn't specifically say "You should unvote," doesn't mean I wasn't thinking that when I say "this is a bad idea."

I don't like this, mainly because it looks like he's directing Xtoxm. Compare this to his earlier FOS and overall lack of diplomacy, now he seems to have no suspicion even as Xtoxm continues to vote him.

Directed him so well he voted for lloyd. And didn't you suspect me post 14 for not directing him?

Overall I dislike you're later actions more because they're more ambiguous. You mention and talk directly to Xtoxm several times, but don't mention any suspicion of him after he's been voting you all game. Only after I mention a connection between you two do you actually say you've begun to suspect him. Post 14 I didn't like because you did the exact opposite. You totally supected him, but didn't try to reason with him at all. I think both are too extreme for their respective circumstances, and you really need to balance suspicion and reasoning/criticisms.

post 73-TSPN votes Xtoxm saying he spent a half hour going back and forth. I don't like this partly because both he and Xtxom expressed interest in further discussion and partly because earlier I specified I didn't want anyone hammering without a few posts' notice. It makes sense to me for TSPN to pick Xtoxm over Lloyd, after all, lloyd was voting Xtoxm anyway, and would probably use his vig on Xtoxm or TSPN(for hammering him and doing it so quickly) either way there's a perfect trail back to the other, so if we assume they are partners, this final Bus makes total sense.

Um, no. Again, if I were scum, would've hammered town. The benefits of hammering town vastly outweigh the benefits of hammering scum. WIFOM is not an dismissal. Especially considering that all of our attacks are going to be based in explaining why people acted the way they did.

Perhaps in general hammering town is better. But in this particular set of circumstances it wouldn't make sense(assuming you and xtoxm are scum) The connection between you guys seems pretty obvious to me, especially later when you wouldn't put him at L-1 and he unvoted you when you were at L-1. Let's not forget that hammering lloyd(we are assuming he's town) would result in a vengance kill. Xtoxm was lloyd's #1 suspect anyway. The only other player he'd voted all day was you, TSPN, so I don't see how you could reasonably hammer town without one of you dying anyway. Ultimately it makes perfect sense to bus in the end. And your final vote also seems too quick to be anything but a bus. If you hammer like that on anything but scum there's a good chance you get vig'd in retribution. Saying "If I were scum I wouldn't do that" doesn't make all this logic go away.

Your second post is false. I am more likely to list reasoning for myself, because that's just what I do. Didn't really think it was a scumtell to compare my activities with everyone else's.

Well for what possible reason would you say it than to lower suspicion on yourself? That seems like something scum would be thinking about far more than town. I would expect scum to be comparing the case against them to everyone else's and that basically what you did.

[TheStranger]

yvonne, you haven't made a very good case for lynching Lloyd considering you're the only player interested in him, atm.

[TheStranger]

Ok, I think my case against TSPN is definitely better than your case for Lloyd, but TSPN has at least a few protown posts and Lloyd really has no redeeming town posts whatsoever.

So

Unvote, Vote:Lloyd

TSPN, maybe you should reconsider you're case on yvonne. I think there's pretty good reasoning for a lloyd lynch. Maybe if you look for towniness rather than scuminess you'll see lloyd really has absolutely none. His only 2 votes are definitely a vote hop, he's always opening his options to vote somebody else; generally spreading suspicion.