Open 680.1 C9++ | Endgame

[CommKnight]

Which for anyone who likes probability.... 23 times at a 1/2 chance... is 1/8,388,608. (Assuming I predict heads/tails from the start and go right through before the initial flip). While I had a 1/2 chance every time the coin was flipped... the overall probability of being right every single time...

[Umlaut]

We're not in agreement. 10:3 is just the same odds you'd have of being town:scum anyway. There are 10 town and 3 scum in your scenario.

At this point I don't know whether you're trolling, doubling down after being called out, or just not reading.

I don't like pulling out

ad auctoritatem

but I already tried making the actual argument and it didn't work, so maybe it's worth pointing out that I'm a mathematics ABD who designs slot machines for a living.

pedit

Also would you think I'd draw attention to myself this game as scum if I did so last game as scum? I mean fool you once, I'm doing my job. Fool you twice, and LMAO.

Honestly, yes. You were easy enough to spot last time that I suspect you're just not very good at playing scum.

[Umlaut]

For someone who was scum in the last game, the ratio is (3/19)*(3/19) : (3/19)*(10/19), or 3:10.
For someone who was town, it's (10/19)*(3/19) : (10/19)*(10/19), or 3:10.

It's the same number.
It's the same odds.

[Umlaut]

While I had a 1/2 chance every time the coin was flipped...

Slip.

If you recognize this, you don't actually believe what you've been saying.

[Alchemist21]

Shannon why are you offering to recind a vote if it makes someone uncomfortable?

It's not a literal offer, it's intended to show that the vote is not Serious.

^^That's what makes me think faux claims. Also no one else is taking it seriously as they would if it was a real claim. I always policy vote fake claims, no matter how fake,

You didn't vote Titus last game for fakeclaiming "two letters."

When she first claimed I thought it was real. When she rescinded it I already had a town read on her, *and* a scum read on the person she had tried to fake out. In that instance, voting Titus might have shifted the whole game in a way I didn't want it to go.

@shannon:

Because they're both making faux claims and I thought it was time to change things up

If you suspect them both, why change it up when the first one was already gaining votes (and was a wagon you started)? What makes you think they're faux claims?

I'm interested in your answer to this question.

I've never been a mason so I don't know exactly how I'd claim, but I think 'Hey mason buddy' 'Don't out us yet, buddy' kind of stuff is not the way.

Umlaut and Titus are voting together. Given the events of last game, one or both should be scum.

I think the last game might introduce some biases here that aren't helpful, to say the least.

You still haven't actually answered the question of

why

you changed votes.

[Alchemist21]

Also, the likelyhood of mafia last game being mafia this game will actually probably be unlikely. So I'm pretty confident in the team being green this time around. But TB definitely rolled some of our bloc from last game as red this one. I'm willing to bet on it being FS of all people.

1. This is phrased as if you were town last game, which you weren't. It's odd that you identify with a townbloc that you weren't really in.

2. Why do you think someone in the townbloc is definitely scum this time? I can dismiss "scum last time won't be scum this time" as a common misconception, but I'm not sure how you're getting this one.

It feels artificial and a bit LAMIST, and combined with bad math that happens to point away from him in particular if it's accepted it makes me suspicious.

Re. your point about me and Titus, I think I understand what you're getting at but I'd rather have you spell it out to make sure I'm understanding correctly.

Umlaut I know you're a math nerd and all but I think you're wasting time trying to explain gambler's fallacy to Comm and anyone else who doesn't understand it. I doubt anyone who sees something scummy is going to put it aside, just because we're human and subject to our own confirmation bias. It's probably a more worthwhile discussion to engage comm on your LAMIST accusation, which notably went unresponded to by Comm.

[Umlaut]

Well I mean, I think I've caught him out on understanding it perfectly fine, which means I was productive despite my best efforts.

You're right that I didn't engage him so much on the first thing, but I'm not totally sure where to go with that.

"Why do you identify with last game's townbloc when you were scum then?"
"I'unno"

[Umlaut]

@Comm

Who are you actually including under the heading of last game's townbloc?

[Alchemist21]

Gambler's Fallacy (MafiaScum Wiki)
Gambler's fallacy (Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

pedit

@GC, if you're paranoid about being buddied. Look at Umlaut's question to you about a Narna and me duo. Like legit. He's trying to get on your good side. Also for being the math guy, he's not even looking at the numbers for this. Just sucking up to you to mislynch D1. I'm a betting man and I will bet in odds when they are favourable to catching scum even if they act townie. They can never hide from probability.

This feels exactly like Comm from last game.

VOTE: CommKnight

How exactly would you describe the similarities between Comm in the last game and this game?

[Umlaut]

Aside from the general swagger and cocksureness (which is probably just how he is), I distinctly remember him taking others' scumreads/cases and tripping over himself to repeat them twice as loud. CommKnight's post there came right after GC said he sensed I might be buddying him.

[Alchemist21]

Aside from the general swagger and cocksureness (which is probably just how he is), I distinctly remember him taking others' scumreads/cases and tripping over himself to repeat them twice as loud. CommKnight's post there came right after GC said he sensed I might be buddying him.

Can you point out where this happened in the last game? I know you can't quote a locked PT but you can give the post numbers to look at. I went through his ISO and didn't see anything like that.

[Alchemist21]

For clarification Iwant post numbers of the original cases and when he repeated them please.

[Umlaut]

Hard to quote posts from the old game when the thread is locked, but I had this in particular in mind:

This may be the most fun I've ever had in a Mafia game.

UNVOTE:
Actually I'd prefer to declare intent to hammer just to make absolutely sure he hangs today after seeing 1710. Would appreciate votes on Umlaut in the meantime.

AND I'm locked in. That is the scummiest shit I've seen. Like it's almost too scummy to be scum! The only way he avoid the noose is if he's a mason and even that's iffy.

As far as I know no one else claimed to scumread me more for this in particular than they already had. This was actually a major influence on my later read of "town for the claim and for no other reason" on his slot.

[Umlaut]

(Admittedly that example was also directed at me, which is hard to separate out)

[Narna]

AND I'm locked in.

That is the scummiest shit I've seen. Like it's almost too scummy to be scum!

The only way he avoid the noose is if he's a mason and even that's iffy.

[shannon]

On a serious note. VOTE: FireScreamer.

His play feels off from last game.

{FrankJaeger, Brian Skies, Narna}
{Alchemist, Green Crayons}
{davesaz, Titus, shannon, RoryMK, Necta}
{Umlaut, FireScreamer}

If FireScreamer is red, I'm willing to bet Shannon is too.

VOTE: shannon

Is anyone allowed to ask why or are you wanting to engage Shannon herself?

Also, the likelyhood of mafia last game being mafia this game will actually probably be unlikely. So I'm pretty confident in the team being green this time around. But TB definitely rolled some of our bloc from last game as red this one. I'm willing to bet on it being FS of all people.

Can we not tie me to the flip of random players please? And unless you think that you're a better town than any other town I ever played scum against, ScumMe wouldn't need Fire's coaching at the start of D1.

I've never been a mason so I don't know exactly how I'd claim, but I think 'Hey mason buddy' 'Don't out us yet, buddy' kind of stuff is not the way.

The question focused on why you switched from Suspect #1 to Suspect #2, when both suspects were doing the same suspicious thing. I don't think you answered that yet.

Just for shits and giggles, really. I didn't want to get stuck in a tunnel.

^^That's what makes me think faux claims. Also no one else is taking it seriously as they would if it was a real claim. I always policy vote fake claims, no matter how fake, I'm just sharing the votes around. I can go back to the other faker if it bothers you? ((This is essentially RVS))

Once again, why're you just immediately assuming their claims are fake? I also don't really care whether you vote Umlaut or not. I'm more interested in why you decided to change your vote.

Once again, I assumed fake because it's not a context in which I'd expect real mason claims to be made. As above, I changed vote because I figured, why not?

Umlaut and Titus are voting together. Given the events of last game, one or both should be scum.

I think the last game might introduce some biases here that aren't helpful, to say the least.

What do you mean? I'm sensing a pro-Titus bias that isn't helpful.

Biases like: X isn't playing the same, so they must be a different alignment, as though no one thought to change their play style between games.

[Alchemist21]

Hard to quote posts from the old game when the thread is locked, but I had this in particular in mind:

This may be the most fun I've ever had in a Mafia game.

UNVOTE:
Actually I'd prefer to declare intent to hammer just to make absolutely sure he hangs today after seeing 1710. Would appreciate votes on Umlaut in the meantime.

AND I'm locked in. That is the scummiest shit I've seen. Like it's almost too scummy to be scum! The only way he avoid the noose is if he's a mason and even that's iffy.

As far as I know no one else claimed to scumread me more for this in particular than they already had. This was actually a major influence on my later read of "town for the claim and for no other reason" on his slot.

That entire sequence happened in the span of 5 minutes. It's entirely possible he didn't even see the IC's post when he posted that.

[Umlaut]

Actually, all the examples I can find are directed at me. It's possible I'm just an egomaniac.

He also took Titus' case against me from 1220, 1224 and parroted it back in 1234 even though it was terrible. Others (well, Shannon) followed it but he repeated it as if he'd thought of it himself.

[Alchemist21]

I didn't want to get stuck in a tunnel.

Why would you have gotten stuck in a tunnel on an RVS vote? This sounds like an excuse made up by nervous scum.

VOTE: Shannon

[Umlaut]

That entire sequence happened in the span of 5 minutes. It's entirely possible he didn't even see the IC's post when he posted that.

I mean, it's possible, but when I scumread someone over a thing and then they turn out to be scum I'm going to keep it in mind.

[shannon]

I didn't want to get stuck in a tunnel.

Why would you have gotten stuck in a tunnel on an RVS vote? This sounds like an excuse made up by nervous scum.

VOTE: Shannon

Maybe it's hard to tell tone on the internet, maybe we have cultural differences, but I was taking the piss.

[Alchemist21]

Actually, all the examples I can find are directed at me. It's possible I'm just an egomaniac.

He also took Titus' case against me from 1220, 1224 and parroted it back in 1234 even though it was terrible. Others (well, Shannon) followed it but he repeated it as if he'd thought of it himself.

See now that one makes a little more sense. I think it might just be your confbias from the last game talking here though. Someone said the exact thing about me when I voted you (something about "agreeing 200%") and I was Town. You just remember Comm doing it because he was scum in that game.

(nothing wrong with being an egomaniac like me though)

[Alchemist21]

I didn't want to get stuck in a tunnel.

Why would you have gotten stuck in a tunnel on an RVS vote? This sounds like an excuse made up by nervous scum.

VOTE: Shannon

Maybe it's hard to tell tone on the internet, maybe we have cultural differences, but I was taking the piss.

I don't see how that explains the tunnel comment in the least.

[shannon]

I can either explain it to you and it will be awkward, or we can just accept that you didn't realise I was being sarcastic and move on.

[Alchemist21]

Actually, all the examples I can find are directed at me. It's possible I'm just an egomaniac.

He also took Titus' case against me from 1220, 1224 and parroted it back in 1234 even though it was terrible. Others (well, Shannon) followed it but he repeated it as if he'd thought of it himself.

See now that one makes a little more sense. I think it might just be your confbias from the last game talking here though. Someone said the exact thing about me when I voted you (something about "agreeing 200%") and I was Town. You just remember Comm doing it because he was scum in that game.

(nothing wrong with being an egomaniac like me though)

oh shit it was Umlaut who made the 200% comment lol