Open 685: Diffusion of Power [Game Over]

[noseacaballo]

Well this should be fun, I don't know any of you!

VOTE: Melanora

Of course.

[noseacaballo]

When fun turn serious-ish someone tends to get hurt.

[noseacaballo]

Seems like some prior resentment here.
UNVOTE: Melanora

VOTE: Jordarrian

[noseacaballo]

Yeah, almost the entire player list here all know each other from off site. It's just you, transcend, and noseacaballo not part of the group that basically raided this game.

As suspected. Sorry I'm back by the way, it was too hot to do anything for a couple days.

Perhaps I will have a different perspective only seeing what people are writing in this specific game. Although, I did play my last game with giga so if I start drawing on that someone please call me out as a hypocrite.

[noseacaballo]

Just read the iso of varanus and I'm pretty happy with the vote pressure there. Perhaps this is bad form, but sometimes when you look at something from a scum perspective it just makes sense and that's what I'm getting.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Varanus

[noseacaballo]

I have an innocent face.

[noseacaballo]

Hahaha, and looking back all 4 on that wagon were town...

[noseacaballo]

I think Ingeel's iso looks pretty suspicious as well...
Ulti I didn't see as much to work with. Giga I think it was you that said it was scummy. what were you seeing?

[noseacaballo]

Melanora:

I just meant that I read an iso and think "would this make sense coming from scum" or "would this make sense coming from town." If I read it and say wow yes that makes a lot of sense sounding like scum, then it isn't great evidence, but it's something. Sorry if I explained poorly, is that clearer?

And as for Ingeel:
I felt like it was a lot of complaining about the game not advancing, without doing anything to advance it. Seemed like someone with a scum role getting anxious. OH and also I didn’t like the comment about having a legacy of being dumb town in post 229. I read it like let me make excuses for not being particularly pro-town…
There were a couple things that made me question it like asking if there was an active role every night but I never said my read was permanent.

[noseacaballo]

I just got caught up by I won't be able to post anything of much worth until tomorrow. Sorry!

[noseacaballo]

That's a good decision for a N1 check. Also I'm very happy where I left my vote before I was gone (sorry!) for a couple days.

Also, I'm suspicious of RC. I don't understand where town reads on RC are coming from. Oh and I'm biased against meta reads maybe that's it.

Related question: maybe i'm new here but have meta reads ever been useful? We spend half the time arguing about what someone's meta actually is...

[noseacaballo]

Regarding the Melanora vs Truegent I can see it several ways, but I actually am intrigued by what Titus said (or expressed, rather) in 1060. Titus would you mind fleshing that out more, or is this talking in pictures thing serious?

[noseacaballo]

i strongly rely on meta but most people are shit at using it

also why are you suspicious of rc? i'll admit that uh


i'm not very good at reading him

He entered in under pressure and got out of it by almost comically following you, which still doesn't seem serious to me...and then pursued that strategy all the way to being town-read. Maybe this is strange to say but I feel like he is playing a character, which is exactly how I would assume scum would replace in to a slot. Avoid serious discussion by doing something that almost becomes a joke.

[noseacaballo]

909/911 doesn't feel like SvS to me though. So who knows if I actually know anything...

[noseacaballo]

it's comical because rc and i are friends and he's teasing me

Which he also knew coming in. So would provide an excellent way to get out of suspicion.

Hey RC by the way. What do you think on the subject?

[noseacaballo]

Because there was already pressure.

Also, I'm happy to lean toward melanora scum by the way. Not convinced but happy to lean.

[noseacaballo]

That's a good point. I guess I would say that they probably aren't scum together but that I think one of them easily could be. And I'm still happier with Varanus.

[noseacaballo]

what about ulti

Honestly, I don't see much either way.

[noseacaballo]

Why do you think Varanus is scum?

[noseacaballo]

I'm not convinced by you Transcend. You could very easily be scum. Does that count?

[noseacaballo]

I understand the concept of killing ulti for contributing nothing on day 1 when identifying scum is the most difficult. It doesn't seem like pressure is going to make him suddenly come in and answer everything. But it depends on how confident we are on varanus and I feel like that's a better option.

[noseacaballo]

im probably going to be posting a lot less btw im a complete mess r/n

Hope you're doing ok!
This week has been brutal for me work-wise so I'm half asleep every time I log on at night.

[noseacaballo]

I understand the concept of killing ulti for contributing nothing on day 1 when identifying scum is the most difficult. It doesn't seem like pressure is going to make him suddenly come in and answer everything. But it depends on how confident we are on varanus and I feel like that's a better option.

Not really feeling the pressure, unfortunately this is how most games go on me ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you want me to answer things, what do you want me to answer?

1. Who do you think is most likely to be scum?
2. What do you think about the wagon that is on you?

[noseacaballo]

While he may have been bussed by 1, I don't think he was bussed by 2. Also, wouldn't the point of a self-hammer be to not put his friends under suspicion for having to decide whether to hammer or not? Or was that just him not caring...

I think Ingeel, Jordarrian, KilltheStory finds scum and in that order. Though there are a couple on the wagon that I wouldn't trust not to be bussing.

[noseacaballo]

Transcend: I feel like we took the same approach by starting with those off the wagon and then we came to similar results looking at them. But since we thought alike, it makes me curious as to why you prefer killthestory over ingeel as the most probable scum.

Giga: Why do you find jord towny?

[noseacaballo]

For the record I thought Transcend hinted pretty hard at it Day 1. I don't know if that makes it more or less legitimate.

[noseacaballo]

Possible that transcend is scum trying to take me with him if he goes down- I have no opinion on whether that is the case but could be

For the record I thought Transcend hinted pretty hard at it Day 1. I don't know if that makes it more or less legitimate.

Where?

He seemed to be trying to avoid attention and as silly as it sounds when he was demanding suspicion, I got suspicious.

Question for you (or anyone): Why would Transcend as scum decide that on Day 2 he was going to try to put himself out there with the goal of taking down Ulti with him...? I'm trying to see why he would do that and I can't get my head around it.

[noseacaballo]

Wow, so I don't see too much downside in killing RC right? I mean if RC flips town then we would know what to do next...Am I missing something??

[noseacaballo]

FTR I have read Titus as more town than RC

[noseacaballo]

Wow, so I don't see too much downside in killing RC right? I mean if RC flips town then we would know what to do next...Am I missing something??

GEE YOU LOSE THE PERSON WHO ACTUALLY CAUGHT AND LYNCHED SCUM IN THE FIRST PLACE.

I think there were several of us that saw Varanus as pretty scummy.

[noseacaballo]

Also if you were town wouldn't you be ok with a sure scum kill next round??

[noseacaballo]

I wasn't?

[noseacaballo]

Sure I'm fine with Titus dying eventually but I'd vastly rather lynch scum without dying myself

I don't get this. Either we kill Titus or you? I don't see why there would ever be a waiting to kill Titus and letting you live now...

[noseacaballo]

Sorry I'm not buying it. But hey if we get you wrong we know where to go next!

VOTE: RadiantCowbells

[noseacaballo]

FTR the wagon on Killthestory looks more town than the wagon on RC...

[noseacaballo]

If you can give me like a really good motivation as to why scum Titus would do that, then I'll listen but man I don't know. That goes for anyone by the way...

[noseacaballo]

But you'd have to convince many other people too. It's not just you...and I for one wouldn't trust you saying "I always read Titus correctly...so trust me."

[noseacaballo]

What do you think that means about them? or about you?

[noseacaballo]

Jordarrian: Why do you think Titus decided to fakeclaim cop out of nowhere to take down RC?

[noseacaballo]

Tbf I think the smarter play would be to lynch Titus. If he flips town then we know to lynch RC the next day. Why do I suggest lynching him over RC you may ask? Well, if RC really is town and a N3 cop as he claims, then we just wasted a cop check. However, if Titus isn't lying and is a n1 cop as he claims, he already used his check so he's pretty much vanilla now. Think about the danger of possibly killing off a perfectly good cop check people.

To be fair we would have to be sure we have a doctor both N2 and N3 to be able to do that...or to make it worth anything

[noseacaballo]

Nobody is sure except for scum. What are you on mate?

Which is precisely why i'm not sure....nor should you be. Or anyone that has town interests at heart.

[noseacaballo]

Why are you obvtown?

[noseacaballo]

That would be incredibly risky/dumb on his part though...would 1 extra day be worth it?

[noseacaballo]

Idk Jord. I tend to believe you aren't his scumpartner. But your answer to why Titus would pull a crazy suicide stunt was "hell if I know" and unless you believe that Titus is outright crazy, I feel like we should lynch RC first.

[noseacaballo]

I think if I were 50/50 (or even 40/60) on whether Titus was telling the truth or lying I would look at your logic and say 'hey yeah that makes sense, let's hedge our bets.' But I think the odds are just so much higher that it's scum RC and not Titus. So I'm willing to risk a cop check several nights in advance in order to keep a townsperson alive.

[noseacaballo]

But I'm tired and this seems too obvious to me, so maybe that means I'm missing something. I'm going to go to bed and I'll check in the morning to see if anyone has given me any other reasons to doubt this.

[noseacaballo]

Well the upside would be having an extra townsperson and a proven one too. Good night!

[noseacaballo]

I think that's L-1 Btw. Good morning

[noseacaballo]

I think Jord is on the same page of killing RC/Titus but he wants to kill Titus first because best case scenario we get a cop check on Day 4. That's his suggestion.

[noseacaballo]

I prefer Ingeel over Kill to be honest.

[noseacaballo]

Pretty unconvinced by kill's giga read and night 2 doctor claim though

[noseacaballo]

Why would RC have done that weird attached at the hip thing with giga if they were scum partners?

Would love to hear the case or see the posts from either of you.

[noseacaballo]

I don't like to hear about meta

[noseacaballo]

That wagon was so bad.

[noseacaballo]

I don't think k1ll flips town here

Most of his ISO is really just D1 fluff and then little comments here and there, he never really expressed an opinion.

Are we fine putting him at L-1?

Translation: Will you guys promise not suspect me if I hop on this wagon here?

[noseacaballo]

I know I have suspected Ingeel for a long time now so if anyone has other compelling cases to present, I would happily discuss those and avoid getting too tunneled in my read.

BUT

Looking at that wagon...
If we believe Silmarils and Titus cop claims then it only leaves one.......

So real questions:
Would silmarils fakeclaim a cop and just claim to have investigated an innocent person? Would that really be all that crazy?
Even crazier...how crazy would it be for Titus to fakeclaim a cop and then throw her buddy under the bus to hopefully become confirmed town. Would that really be impossible?

Or should we just go with the much simpler (more likely?) explanation and kill scummy Ingeel.

[noseacaballo]

Not necessarily convinced by that. Explain?

[noseacaballo]

Do you think that wagon was all town?

[noseacaballo]

I'm sure I could go back and check but didn't RC claim cop basically saying Titus wasn't a cop. So it doesn't necessarily mean RC was calculating who could counterclaim because it was already a counterclaim?
Does that make sense?

[noseacaballo]

What's the best case scenario for a mass claim though?

[noseacaballo]

Like unless 7 claim one thing it doesn't really help us, right?

[noseacaballo]

Behaviour's part of it nose

What do you mean?

[noseacaballo]

Ok yeah that's a pretty obvious example I suppose. I wouldn't expect it to be that easy. But I see your point.

I just meant RC was claiming cop effectively making it RC cop vs Titus cop. he was claiming cop implying that Titus couldn't be.

[noseacaballo]

like i dont think lastscum!jord ties himself to a doctor claim when rc is guiltied

wait why?

[noseacaballo]

Actually looking back I think Jord claiming that he only defended RC that to throw suspicion off of him to protect him that night is pretty unreasonable aka possibly scummy.

[noseacaballo]

I'm not defending RC for the last time jfc

You're not seeing the fucking point and it aggravates me that you aren't thinking about this for one second.

I'll just go back to playing ace attorney. You guys clearly don't get what I'm trying to say

Alright, confession time. I purposely did that to get scum off me. I am a N2 doctor.

[noseacaballo]

It would have been technically correct later in the game I believe but it would have been a crazy suicide move by Titus to do it then...

[noseacaballo]

psure its in (caballo, silm)

Please ask me any questions you would like. I am more than happy to talk about anything I have done or whatever else will help you judge me.

[noseacaballo]

Would Jord really defend RC so hard is the only question I have about Jord.

[noseacaballo]

silm confing me is still weird tbh

why?

[noseacaballo]

The only reason I can see is that he thought he could get away with the technical correctness of his argument, without being too strongly linked to RC. And then he got caught defending it more than he would have liked because he didn't think his technical argument would be met with much opposition or suspicion. Then he just kinda snowballed into it more and more trying to push the technical angle and eventually just gave up and went away...

[noseacaballo]

Already a terrible wagon. Very interesting to see how it's forming though. Please either of you feel free to ask me any questions.

[noseacaballo]

So sils innos giga who clears ingeel?

I am not feeling well but if that's the case ingeel is conftown.

Regardless I think Ingeel is cleared, right?
I mean if ingeel is scum then giga would have to be lying.
If Giga is lying then Sils would have to be lying.
Giga and Sils can't both be lying...so Ingeel can't be scum.

I guess giga is confirmed too. Because if giga were scum it would mean sils is also lying. And they can't both be scum.

[noseacaballo]

To be fair I suspected RC long before anyone else did simply by the way he entered the game...I was bullish on Varanus being scum all through Day 1. I think I pushed pretty hard on both of those.

[noseacaballo]

You could vote Jord with me?

I just can't see him pushing THAT hard to defend RC. Even given my explanation early as to how he could have found himself over-committed to something he wasn't wanting to get dragged in on.

I also just read through TrueGent's iso and I'm really not convinced there is anything there to suggest a hard town read that he seems to have earned. The one thing is that his D1 defense of Varanus is almost as bad as Jord's defense of RC to the point where it seems like reasonable scum would not do it.

[noseacaballo]

Caballo that's not the case because neither of them need to ve a real cop and the scum of the two could just fake an inno

I don't think I explained myself well. I understand that scum could fake claim a cop and say they have an inno because they know who is guilty/innocent. However since it is a 3 person chain:

Sil > Giga > Ingeel

And given that there is only one scum left.

If Ingeel were scum, it would require everyone in the chain previously to be scum as well in order to lie about their investigations. Impossible because there is one scum left not 3.
If Giga were scum, it would require everyone in the chain previously (Sil) to be scum as well in order to lie about their investigation. Impossible because there is one scum left not 2.

Therefore of those three, Sil is the only non-confirmed for me.

Also, though perhaps not technically correct I have to believe that Titus is confirmed just because it would have been an incredibly risky play otherwise.

[noseacaballo]

It was the way he entered the game. There was suspicion already on him. And then he entered with this gimmick with giga. And I watched the pressure kind of dissipate and I thought "wow that was a smart scum tactic to get pressure off yourself." Then from there on, his refusal to engage with me etc. made me scum read him.

[noseacaballo]

I mean I went back and forth arguing that point with giga...

[noseacaballo]

giga why has your truegent read always been so town?

[noseacaballo]

I am just rather frustrated nobody wants to lynch Jord with me. :/

What do you think about Jord's behavior on D2 with RC?

[noseacaballo]

But why do you think he would have tried so hard to defend his scum partner after getting accused by a claimed cop of being guilty...

[noseacaballo]

see my post with his 5 game advancing posts

See I did go back and read that post and it's all just like slight reads and strangely defending Varanus...

[noseacaballo]

Sorry Titus I think I'm more into Sil or Truegent right now to be honest.

As for the massclaim I haven't seen a compelling case yet.

[noseacaballo]

Ouch, defend your courage or admit to being scum.

For me, my first instinct was to trust Sil's claim. But looking at it now, it could have been coached in night chat. And to be honest I don't see too much downside to it from scum perspective...

Titus: Who would be your second choice after Jord.

[noseacaballo]

Coached by RC? Lmfao? No, I have some self-respect

Ouch.

I'm off to work. Won't be back until tonight kinda late so see you all then.

[noseacaballo]

also no one is tr'ing caballo from meta

yeah, what?

[noseacaballo]

Scum!me would have never cleared Giga since I'd consider them a mislynch option, held onto a claim and gone for a N1/N3 doctor claim if a MC was held, and just lynched Giga and then Jord.

Why would giga be a mislynch option?

[noseacaballo]

To be honest, I'm pretty impressed with my play because I scumread Varanus and RC both early and consistently. Check my iso.

[noseacaballo]

Would I bus both scum mates early and hard?

[noseacaballo]

And then avoid the ugly wagon that lynched town way too fast...

[noseacaballo]

You put me at L1 by the way.

[noseacaballo]

Kts wagon made no sense to me to be honest. People developed their opinions and then didn't challenge them. Then all of a sudden he's gone.

[noseacaballo]

Titus basically lolhammered kts. If I"m using that term correctly...

[noseacaballo]

To be honest I think titus is basically cleared. That claim against RC would just be such a swing for the fences scum strategy.

[noseacaballo]

BUT that makes it scarier to be L-1 because I don't think someone who people are suspicious of will lolhammer because that would be obv scum. Someone who is basically cleared but says who cares DOES scare me and that could happen here.

[noseacaballo]

OH and look at the wagon on me by the way. Think of your top 3 scumreads. I"m guessing the other two besides me are on this wagon with you...

[noseacaballo]

Please don't...

WOW SO BAD

[noseacaballo]

Are you out of your minds?

[noseacaballo]

Like I get it's hard to argue against of a PoE argument but that was so incredibly bad...

[noseacaballo]

You guys better not screw this up.

[noseacaballo]

Well so far I have been perfectly correct in everything I have said this game including finding the first two scum and dodging the terrible wagon that followed AND showing exactly how I would die.

So maybe look at my last posts....

[noseacaballo]

Sorry...

I would vote Sil if I still could and after that Jord.

[noseacaballo]

Most town = Giga, Ingeel
Next = Titus
Slight scum = Trugent
Likeliest scum = Sil/Jord

Am I allowed to do this btw?

[noseacaballo]

Why did you lolhammer me...

[noseacaballo]

You could have at least given me the chance to convince the one not likely scum person on my wagon to get off it...

There are plenty of town people to start another wagon...

[noseacaballo]

I didn't rule Jord off the table I just was skeptical because it didn't make sense to rush anything...and there is a pretty decent case to be made that he wouldn't have acted that way as scum. Doesn't mean I ruled him off the table.

[noseacaballo]

Anyway, I'm going to bed. Best of luck to all, sorry for being salty.

[noseacaballo]

Well, then...congrats to the scum! We certainly referenced it but I don't think we ever even seriously thought about pushing Titus too much. Nothing more to say but well played haha