[SETUP] Hollywood Mafia

[Umlaut]

I'd play it.

[Umlaut]

Just ran a 1,000,000-fold simulation with the following assumptions.

• Lynches are according to the following algorithm:
  • If all living celebrities are mafia, lynch a random celebrity.
    
  • If all living non-celebrities are mafia, lynch a random non-celebrity.
    
  • If all mafia celebrities are dead, lynch a random non-celebrity.
    
  • If all mafia goons are dead, lynch a random celebrity.
    
  • Otherwise, lynch a random player.
• Nightkills are according to the following algorithm:
  • If all mafia celebrities are dead, or if all vanilla townies are dead, shoot a random town celebrity.
    
  • If all mafia goons are dead, or if all town celebrities are dead, shoot a random vanilla townie.
    
  • Otherwise, shoot a random town player.
    
  • However, never shoot a player if he is the last town celebrity or the last vanilla townie, and there are living mafia in that group.

Under these rules, the town EV is

48.4%

. That's actually pretty well balanced.

I ought to see if there are any tweaks to the lynch strategy that raise the town EV, or any tweaks to the nightkill strategy that lower it, but this is probably not a bad estimate.

[Umlaut]

I've edited the above post three or four times as I've found mistakes in my code, but I'm pretty confident it's right this time.

It's simple, it's interesting, and it has close to 50% EV. I say run it.

[Umlaut]

Win-lose records suggest towns do worse than random in general.

[Umlaut]

Necro-bump.

Did this ever get run? I'd like to play it, or run it if that's not an option.

[Umlaut]

mith, what is there to claim in this setup? Everyone already knows who is a celebrity, and no one is going to claim they're scum.