Mini 1906 - It's An Owners Market Blitz (Game Over)

[Elena Fisher]

Gonna re read some things I take no credit in that vote thought Gamma was 100% flipping town.

[Elena Fisher]

We should make a public bid on the day kill so we know if mafia has it or not.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Heres your public bid. 500. Its gonna go to 501 because scum is gonna take it

[Albert B. Rampage]

Then they will use it in LYLO

[Tywin Lannister]

So I didn't choose any of those things. Like at all.

[Tywin Lannister]

So I guess being owner doesn't really do anything.

I chose auction investigator, bodyguard, watcher, and cop

[Tywin Lannister]

Lol at desperado and abr. Scum claim right there.

VOTE: abr

If I get lynched, it's not my problem. I'm obv not scum, but Abr is reaching hard lol. Desperado must be the buddy to be this bad. I forgot he was even in the game he lurks and is so useless. Who even knew he was in this game still? Serious question

[Tywin Lannister]

vote: tywin

Worst scum player ever lol. Abr had no choice, because he knew I'd vote and lynch him straight away. I told him as much yesterday.

Desperado though, this is a scum claim of the worst kind. Sucks for you. Nobody even knew you existed, because you've been trash tier useless all game, but you voting me there is terribad. ABR knew he was caught scum trying to lynch mono and I told him he was next yesterday. He's fucked. But desperado lols

[Tywin Lannister]

Wtf does 400% higher chance even mean when that's clearly not the case? I'll need an explanation after the game on how these are chosen, because 400% is a hell of a lot to get them to not flip. It's not a coin flip. It's 400% of 0 I guess.

[Tywin Lannister]

Abr don't worry your scum team will be gone before lylo.

Prism btw needs sorting, because her unvote/revote of Socrates after I pointed out how I couldn't move off Socrates on to Gamma without Momo getting lynched showed me she was purposely trying for that. She was trying to save Socrates. Otherwise, she fucked up by making an insanely stupid play for zero reason. For a player that thinks she's so good, she sure almost fucked over town there. Her unvote/revote was scummy af.

Desperado may really be the worst player in this game if he is town,but I think his vote on me is a scum claim. He's been the most useless player by far, and he lurked all game long.

Momo, the scum prefered lynch hammered scum. Gg gamma/abr. Gamma fucked up by joining a wagon with abr/Socrates. Huge scum slip there gamma, if you're reading this. That ruined your day and now your entire team.

Elena is town for voting gamma.

Infinity is town for voting gamma all game.

Abr is gamma's scum buddy. He's been shit all game, has no idea how to play scum obviously, and there's no way he is town after Momo wagon.

Abr is the best lynch today by all standards. Socrates again lives on. Desperate and prism are now my other two SRs after abr.

[Infinity 324]

How is the increase in probability calculated when the probability of 4 items is increased? Is it calculated as if there are 4x as many of each item in the shop, so it's 4x more likely to be chosen than any other item (for example an item would go from 1/12 chance to 4/20 chance of being chosen)? Or it is just 4x more likely for that item to be chosen than before (for example, the item would go from 1/12 chance to 4/12 or 1/3 chance of being chosen).

[Regfan]

How is the increase in probability calculated when the probability of 4 items is increased? Is it calculated as if there are 4x as many of each item in the shop, so it's 4x more likely to be chosen than any other item (for example an item would go from 1/12 chance to 4/20 chance of being chosen)? Or it is just 4x more likely for that item to be chosen than before (for example, the item would go from 1/12 chance to 4/12 or 1/3 chance of being chosen).

Here's an example of it works;

1. Bulletproof x 1
2. Day-Kill x 1
3. Commuter x 1
4. Godfather x 1
5. Jailkeeper x 1
6. Ninja x 2
7. Roleblocker x 1
8. Tracker x 1
9-12. Bulletproof x 1 (Enhanced)
13-16. Jailkeeper x 1 (Enhanced)
17-20. Roleblocker x 1 (Enhanced)
21-24. Tracker x 1 (Enhanced)

I would roll 1-24 inside randomorg and the ability matching that would be up for auction that day, would random again; if the ability matches one already rolled to come up that day I would just reroll it, this would happen until there's 4 unique items up for auction.

[Infinity 324]

Ok so that means the chance that the 4 abilities that weren't picked show up is (8/20)^4 = (2/5)^4 = 2.56%

Not buying it.

VOTE: tywin

[Infinity 324]

The chance that tywin just a really good scum player fooling us is a lot higher than 2.56%, especially given how long he defended gamma. I think the plan was to choose 2 roles that would be good for town so that the pool didn't look too suspicious, but they got unlucky and none of them showed up.

[momo]

VOTE: Tywin

Scum thrives of possibility. Town thrives on probability. (wiki article on this).

There is a 97.44% chance that Tywin is scum.

[Desperado]

tywin scum flail is so cute

[Prism]

Good job dragging me to the finish line Infinity. In hindsight I really should have placed more stock in him just not being obviously town, especially after the whole "But what's your point?" interaction he had with me.

Gerry death combined with my continued disbelief of Soc makes me still think Soc for 3rd.

For obvious reasons I'm voting Tywin today. Infinity's math isn't exact because he's not removing the roles already chosen, the real chance is (8/20)*(7/19)*(6/18)*(5/17) or 1.44%. So that's a 98.55% chance of him being scum. I think it's weird that he wouldn't just lie and say he picked Tracker x2 but fundamentally I don't think it matters. I don't think he realized just how unlikely that claim was before making it. I've always wondered what I would do if one of my townreads had a probabilistically high chance of being scum because I'm a pretty stubborn player, and now I have my answer.

VOTE: Tywin

The Tywin/Desperado interactions are really weird and unnatural. Desperado's barely been mentioned to this point but him voting with ABR is somehow hardclaiming scum with ABR. On the flip side, all of Tywin's posting today came

before

Infinity outed the math that is pretty damning. Tywin didn't yet know how bad it would be to claim these, assuming he's scum which I think is a safe bet. If he did, he wouldn't have done it to begin with. He did not yet know that he was a sunk ship. Caling these posts "flailing scum" is really odd especially when there's actual salient points there. For instance, Tywin makes a great point about me accidentally nearly saving Soc because of the tie mechanic. I was a frantic mess that day with a whole host of outside game issues and straight up forgot it, even despite Tywin apparently pointing it out in #728. I remember thinking that one of the people on Gamma/Soc like gerry would swap to guarantee it if needed, but it was a really stupid unvote and Tywin is right to push it.

Tywin tunneled Socrates for half the game, was open to him being scum with Gamma and ABR, but suddenly forgets about him entirely today and is just shoving the lurker on the way down. Again he's almost certainly scum, but this whole interaction is just weird.

[Prism]

Actually I guess I can see how this could be "flailing" from Desp's point of view as Desp had already voted him and Tywin immediately lashed back. I think that's pretty null actually.

[Prism]

It's actually even worse.

tl;dr: 99.66% chance Tywin is scum.

Regfan's example shows that the enhanced rolls have their original "lottery number" plus an additional four.

12 roles were left last night. 8 were not picked, 4 were. Add 4*4=16 additional lottery numbers to make 28 total numbers to be drawn, 20 of which belong to the enhanced lottery picks. 8/28 chance for first unenhanced roll to be picked, remove it from the pool, 7/27 for the next, and so on.

(8/28)*(7/27)*(6/26)*(5/25)=0.34%.

[Desperado]

its more that he's actually been flailing all game...go back and look at the way he talked about gamma. "gamma's not scum because early d1 wagons never hit scum" like come on

[Albert B. Rampage]

Lol at desperado and abr. Scum claim right there.

VOTE: abr

If I get lynched, it's not my problem. I'm obv not scum, but Abr is reaching hard lol. Desperado must be the buddy to be this bad. I forgot he was even in the game he lurks and is so useless. Who even knew he was in this game still? Serious question

It appears the tables have turned! How do you plead?

[Elena Fisher]

We either got super unlucky it just got scum who wasted this

we should wait for mid day update first then I'll vote Tywin

[Albert B. Rampage]

We either got super unlucky it just got scum who wasted this

we should wait for mid day update first then I'll vote Tywin

He's already hammered. 9 alive 5 votes.

[Elena Fisher]

Oh he is well then that works

[Desperado]

again, not how this game works

day will continue until its scheduled to end