Mini Normal 1908 - In The Web (Game Over)

[RayFrost]

/confirm

I'm going to read and catch up on the 33 pages of nonsense this thread is likely to be and then throw my hands up in exasperation before claiming I've got no results. Gimme a day or two.

Unvote

until further notice

[RayFrost]

Currently slammed with work and other obligations that suddenly came up (my girlfriend having rl issues that need my help, etc). Progress is being made on catching up but is slow, my apologies.

[RayFrost]

I have problems with gamma and don't really support an ircher lynch, more news at 11 (literally 11 pm, JST - 6 hours from how). Busy working and I fell asleep last night while finishing my catchup read, so yeah.

Idk current vote count, but consider vote metaphorically on gamma

[RayFrost]

Not completely, as per falling asleep, but through page 45 or so

Finished read + actual catch up post with the news report

[RayFrost]

I'm here now. Give me about 1-2 hours to collect my thoughts and finish my catchup read and I'll get a post out to you guys or collapse in a heap and actually write it up in the morning depending on how my exhaustion works against me.

[RayFrost]

I'm here, currently working on getting my post completely together. Finding posts I want to highlight and such, etc, etc.

I'm going to put it here that I absolutely abhor the overuse of meta and

anyone

who attempts to ignore me by handwaving what I have to say and saying "but it's that person's

meta

" will incur my wrath.

Someone having a meta of playing scummy is not an excuse to ignore scummy things they do. Do not positively reinforce bad play.

Mind you none of you have done that yet, but I want that out there now before I have to deal with "but I know this person and that's just what they do." I'm not having it.

[RayFrost]

So, I'm here and am going to go into the Many Reasons Gamma Is Suspect.

This is going to be end up being a wall for all you "I don't read wall posts" people. We're probably not going to get along, stylistically. I will

attempt

to keep things concise. I hope you will

attempt

to read what I have to say. Don't worry, if you just can't handle reading my posts, I try to include a short-form conclusion at the end. If I don't, just ask for it.

GE's rather reactionary focus in this post bothers me:

VOTE: Gamma

For realsies.

Can you explain this?
Also you are the one I suspect most out of the first five to vote me. The list goes like
TwoFace
Titus
BYF
Mort
Ircher

When he gets a serious vote, he immediately says he suspects ircher but doesn't follow up with reasons

or

a vote on him. Then he goes to vote transcend instead, never follows up on this, and later drops both the transcend and ircher reads without ever having made any

actual

attempt to push them. If you suspect someone, the town thing to do is to pressure them.

Votes with no follow up are just lip service. And this is a consistent issue, which I'll point out a few more times later.

So you blame me? For what exactly?

1. Answering a question not directed toward you
2. Being incorrect that the thing quoted answers the question

And also the fact that the question was about his read of you, and that you interject there is icky.

The chain of interaction that comes before this post by Mort is relevant, but Mort raises a good point here: GE is responding to a question about him but not toward him. This is a sign of over-defensiveness and shows another form of reactionary gameplay.

We see in this post here another case of GE posting suspicions:

Transcend and MMM for now
Ircher isn't an SR anymore

But there's no mention of MMM before this, and, if you look at the following posts, there is

no

followup - no real scumhunting toward MMM to solidify this read or even show why this read exists.

I thought I'd keep going but honestly they're more of the same.

If you go through GE's postings, the votes are rarely outside of what other people are voting, his "reads" are either reasonless or could've been super easily copypasted from someone else. Without being questioned or pushed for reasons, GE has not actually given any this entire game. There are more contentless posts than contentful posts, with less content given the less talk about or to him there is.

The willingness to lynch anyone who isn't a townread is inherently a more pro-scum mindset as anyone that

isn't

scum is a good death. You might also note that GE said he was

townreading the fitz slot

but then

kept his vote and requested a claim

. The only motivation to do this is to reveal Fitz's role while it's a free option. If you're town, you push against lynching a townread and try to not get the townread to reveal their role. You don't force them to claim then jump off when you were already townreading the person.

Nothing GE has done this game has been actual scumhunting. It's all lip service and self-serving behavior.

Vote: Gamma Emerald

[RayFrost]

If you guys want my reads on other people, I can give them (with reasons), but my priority is lynching the person I think is most likely to be scum.

I will say that I heavily disagree with an Ircher wagon / lynch in no small part due to the fact that GE is a person on the wagon. But aside from that, I've felt that ircher has actually put efforts toward scumhunting and has had fairly respectable posting overall.

While I understand the transcend wagon's origins and don't completely disagree with it, I personally find transcend's nonsense is inscrutable and that whemestar's existence in this game is too short for me to make a judgment. I'll take it if I'm forced to by deadline, but I'm not happy.

[RayFrost]

Yes.

Have you actually ever said why you suspected MMM or why you dropped that suspicion?

Have you actually explained why, while you were townreading fitz, you kept your vote on the wagon and demanded a claim?

Have you actually pushed and done scumhunting and followup on the scumreads you claim to have that happen to already be pushed by other people?

[RayFrost]

Looking back I misread pronoun usage in a couple posts (#979 and related) that made me misread you saying you had a townread on fitz when it was about someone else.

One point retracted. Still not my biggest issue, which is your lack of scumhunting this game and lack of follow through.

Your content providing has in vast majority been reactionary, and the fact you're "intending" to case your biggest scumreads Soon^TM when you just haven't bothered for some reason this entire time until now doesn't really help the cause.

You haven't made any cases till now.

I bring up a lack of cases and suddenly it was your plan to do so all along.

Why the change in style?

[RayFrost]

Okay I admit I missed the one line at the bottom of page 65. So the timing is not after my questioning you and demanding it but after Kelvin questioning you and requesting it.

Shift the time period, the point remains the same.

[RayFrost]

Why does it take someone pressuring you for the cases for you to feel motivated?

It's natural town behavior to argue for and push for the lynch of people you suspect. The motivation is in serving the purpose of getting the bad guys.

It's natural scum behavior to not argue for it and let other people do the work for you. There's no motivation because to speak more is to reveal more and stand out, which increases your risk.

[RayFrost]

Accusing you of feeling the need to become active to avoid being seen as scum because people are saying the scum are complacent would be silly.

Accusing you of having been complacent this entire game unless people pushed you to be active, which is scummy because scum like to be complacent is in line with what I said originally about your play.

To which your reply is essentially "yes, but I'm not scum."

We'll have to agree to disagree.

[RayFrost]

Anyway, don't let me distract you from putting up your cases. Those are honestly more interesting than having you try to argue with me that I'm wrong.

[RayFrost]

MM4 is scummy, I wouldn't be surprised if whemestar flipped scum even if I don't think it's the most likely slot to flip that way.

[RayFrost]

MM4's scummy because I dislike his interactions surrounding the gamma wagon.

And I heavily disagree regarding ircher

[RayFrost]

Consolidation is the deadline compromise. There is nothing wrong with being spread out in opinions and getting our actual beliefs out before compromising.

The easiest way to give scum a free pass is to just argue that we should compromise, not make people argue who they

really

think is scum, and force the false dichotomy of "a or b"

[RayFrost]

And for clarity purposes, my feeling regarding MM4 is not very strong. My only strong point of suspicion at this point in time is Gamma Emerald.

And mm4's vote on me is not related to my suspicion. It's not like he's holding a gun to my head, after all.

[RayFrost]

How is that scummy instead of merely a bad attitude?

What is the inherent scum motivation to behave in a way that antagonizes people who disagree with you?

[RayFrost]

While you're here, can you tell me what your thoughts are regarding what I've pointed out regarding GE?

Talking about your feelings is great and I hope we can do that more and develop a friendship as this game progresses, but there are important matters to discuss as deadline looms.

I'm hungry, so I'll go eat food and come back. There's a really nice curry place around the corner where they serve curry + naan bread for like 6 dollars (well, 600 JPY, but still)

[RayFrost]

Where in Japan? I have family in Akatsuka.

I live in Nagoya.

[RayFrost]

Sure, that's a great policy, in theory. In practice, it means you mislynch people because they have a suboptimal playstyle.

If you don't want to get lynched for seeming like mafia (aka playing badly), learn how to seem like town (aka play better). Harsh? Yes. True? Yes.

Ray is town?

I wouldn't be so sure of that...

Are you going to follow up on this or is this a one-off comment?

Do you have anything to actually say about what I said RE: Gamma Emerald?

P-edit: I see you saying you don't feel good about me and are worried about the game falling into my pace.

Is your distrust of me caused by the fact I'm being assertive or by the fact that my posting is actually

suspicious

in some way? Question me if you have questions.

[RayFrost]

RayFrost's posting currently is making me feel better about the slot.

While I appreciate you and other people reading me as more town, I don't care about that nearly as much as I care about what you actually have to say about what I said about Gamma Emerald.

And the interaction between me and him that happened after.

Give me actual

thoughts

.

P-edit: Gamma, I had read through page like 30 when I made that comment about having a scum read on you. And I felt suspicious of you as far back as page like... 10? So yeah.

[RayFrost]

MM4 are you actually going to reply to the content that I posted or are you just going to lazily discredit it as completely unindicative of my alignment because I'm "not new" and therefore nothing I do is really believable because oh man it could all just be a tricksy skillful play and therefore not even something that you need to give a real response to

[RayFrost]

Because, from the way I see, what you're doing right now is going "RayFrost posted actual scumhunting content and this actually makes me feel okay about lynching him because he's good enough to do that regardless of alignment"

Someone is being productive and your response is "yeah seems like an okay lynch"

All this mutter from you and kelvin about "it's so suspicious how convincing rayfrost is" bothers me significantly. Because it's a

nonsense

argument. "Charismatic" is not an adjective that has an alignment.

If I knew you guys were scum, I could quote your behavior here as the perfect example of "scum trying their best to discredit someone town without actually trying to push the case because they don't have anything to work with"

[RayFrost]

I wasn't particularly planning on it, but I guess I might as well. You're giving me a bad vibe. The things you are saying aren't that different from what other people have said, but they feel much more calculated and predatory.

Can you point out the things I've said that are a repeat of something someone else has said?

Do you have anything to actually say about what I said RE: Gamma Emerald?

Yeah, I think it felt like an opportunistic attack on a player that you perceive as an easy target.

Okay. How is he an easy target? What about this is favorable to me over taking the easy path of pushing the current highest wagon (the one on whemestar) to completion? Several people have expressed town-reads on Gamma Emerald, there have been almost no people that actually

oppose

the whemestar lynch so much as preferring a different one.

Nah, being assertive isn't the issue. It's that the content of your posts feels super sketchy. I mean, it's obviously just my own perspective, but my interaction with Gamma felt pretty genuine and I got a strong feeling of town-mindedness from him. You instead chose to pick on it as only being active when pressured. Admittedly, that was my read on him at first, but seeing his posts now, I just don't see it. My intuition tells me that he's town and you are predatory scum. But I'm grounded enough to know that my intuition can be wrong, so I'd rather that you were watched and everyone be put on their guard, rather than outright lynching you here.

I've seen charismatic scum. I've

been

charismatic scum. That's what you strike me as right now, so I think it would dangerous to let the town fall into your pace. And I had to say it because with you around, I'm much more worried about dying at night.

What about my posting makes you think my charismatic nature is indicative of me being scum rather than town? Or is my charisma completely separate and just a fact that accompanies your belief that I'm scum?

Are you saying that you thought the same things I did and then changed your mind seeing his responses

after

what I posted?

And why would my being in the game make you feel worried about dying at night? You've been overly focused on the night phase and the shots that are going to go down and trying to control what happens there. Just stop. Every post you make about this does nothing to serve the town. It is incredibly anti-town to be vocally expressing your thoughts re: the night game as it gives more information to the informed minority (scum) than it does to the uninformed majority (town).

[RayFrost]

Since you kids all want to do meta reads, I should point out that I have a slightly out of date wiki page about me that was at one point managed by someone who made an account named RayFrostWikiManager.

I will present to you the two best scum games I have ever played, by my reckoning. Both of them losses, by the way.
Exhibit A

Exhibit B

I don't have any stellar town play to reference, in my opinion.

Note that I'm a far calmer and mature person than I was 6 years ago. And I also have not played a game of mafia in a long time because the last time I did I had the fun of having literally every single one of my reads get shot down by everyone in the game with the excuse of "it's their meta, so you're wrong." One might imagine how demotivating that is.

[RayFrost]

All this mutter from you and kelvin about "it's so suspicious how convincing rayfrost is" bothers me significantly. Because it's a

nonsense

argument. "Charismatic" is not an adjective that has an alignment.

That's not what I said. Your argument isn't convincing to me and that's my whole point. If I thought it was a sound argument, regardless of my alignment, I'd be voting Gamma right now. I don't, so I'm not. And furthermore, I never said that charismatic is an adjective that has an alignment. I'm saying you read like charismatic scum to me, as opposed to charismatic town.

Not finding it convincing and therefore not voting with me's not a problem to me. Acceptable difference of perspective.

If I knew you guys were scum, I could quote your behavior here as the perfect example of "scum trying their best to discredit someone town without actually trying to push the case because they don't have anything to work with"

Funny, because if I knew you were scum, I could quote your behavior here as the perfect example of "scum getting mad about 'getting caught for the wrong reason.'"

Also, what would you call it if you knew Mario or I were town?

If I were mad, perhaps so.

In mario's case, I'd call it lazily copying you.

In your case, I'd call it believing someone that has a differing opinion is suspicious because their opinion differs - I think Gamma's scum for the reasons above, you think he's town and disagree about what the things I noted mean. So I'm suspicious for arguing he's scum based off of reasons you don't think are valid.

[RayFrost]

im not discrediting crap lmao

Then what exactly is the purpose of saying "oh anybody can post content like that!" and not actually giving any

real

thoughts about it? Like saying you disagree or that you agree or that you find point A worth noticing but point B not so much or, or, or

[RayFrost]

Appreciated.

I just hadn't given it any thought and didn't want to, so I figured I'd have you type it out instead.

This is reasonable.

You understood me correctly.

WIFOM by definition is worthless and to be discarded. That's why it's called that.

[RayFrost]

My meta comment was more aimed at people not-you, kelvin.

A la this post and other posts people have done through the thread in meta-related stuff:

Have you seen RF play?

no but pretty much every non-newbie can post content like that
what i'm trying to say is that after thinking about it grey wasn't really all that town + you're all getting ahead of yourselves with the frost read

[RayFrost]

MM4, they quite clearly have a reason for believing that I am more likely to be a town now than I was before: my posting feels towny to them.

The main thing that I want to know is what

you actually think about it

. What are your

thoughts

about what I've posted?

So far, you've not actually replied to the content of what I've said. Do you disagree with the case I've posted? Do you agree with it? Are you okay with it but feel other things are better / more convincing / etc?

Throw me a freaking bone.

[RayFrost]

Then enlighten me on who you think

is

scum.

Is it still ircher?

[RayFrost]

I'll be available in 22 hours to do the hammer vote on whemestar if necessary to avoid a no lynch at deadline, so nobody should feel obligated to do more than put him at L-1. Timezone advantage.

[RayFrost]

Anything relating to your death is a bad post from your perspective.

Mainly right now, I want actual replies to the thread from people who have promised replies (mortfeld, for example) and for twoface, havingfitz, and tarkus to come back and say something. Without input from four people, I'm missing a lot of information that I want.

But I can't magic them back into the game, so.

[RayFrost]

While I understand the transcend wagon's origins and don't completely disagree with it, I personally find transcend's nonsense is inscrutable and that whemestar's existence in this game is too short for me to make a judgment. I'll take it if I'm forced to by deadline, but I'm not happy.

[RayFrost]

The only reason I'd be voting you instead of GE is due to the fact that if I don't vote you we'd get a no lynch which is inherently against the town win condition at this point in time.

[RayFrost]

Which is unfortunate, but compromise wagons happen.

Though I looked over the ruleset of the game and there's not actually any mention of what happens at deadline without a majority.

Mod:

It may be beneficial to include a mention of "at deadline, x happens"

Thanks. I will include that in the next VC

[RayFrost]

I am

against

lynching ircher at this time.

[RayFrost]

If you move over, you're coercing me into a lynch that I actively disagree with.

Do you actively disagree with lynching whemestar?

[RayFrost]

The only reason I haven't hammered yet is I am hoping to hear something from tarkus / twoface before this day ends. It's important to me.

[RayFrost]

I now have to go for roughly 10 hours. I will be back before deadline but I'll be out of communication in the meantime.

[RayFrost]

I posted things.

[RayFrost]

My posting of things starts here

[RayFrost]

Did you just sweep my entire presence in this game under the rug

[RayFrost]

Then give me an actual response

[RayFrost]

The one post I linked would be enough if you've got time. I included a summary in the last paragraph.

[RayFrost]

I'm going to sleep now and have no idea if anybody will be present to hammer, so I'm going to go ahead and do it as a preventative measure. Twoface, take the night time to catch up. I'd argue why GE is a better lynch over wheme if we had more time etc etc but we don't.

Vote: Whemestar

[RayFrost]

Priscila, can you explain to us how PenguinPower and myself are on the same level of townread as a confirmed town player (twoface, dead) and a player who's all but confirmed (kelvin smith)? Because I'm not seeing that.

[RayFrost]

I'm going to need to catch up and sort my thoughts, which I'll be doing tomorrow. I am too busy today to be available to spend enough time on this.

[RayFrost]

I'd like to start by going ahead with this:

Vote: BigYoshiFan

I'd like to state that I currently have a

townread

on Gamma. And I never really had a scumread on him. His reaction to my accusations on day 1 was quite towny (which brought him from null to town), and the reactions of other players around those accusations were more suspect. My main motivation for pushing him was that I had felt it was highly unlikely a wagon would actually shift to him (I didn't want more claims, really) and it was highly likely people would be willing to discuss it (other pushes felt less likely to get any substance from the others). Sorry to Gamma. You were a good choice for this. Nothing personal.

Now, the reactions of two players in particular bothered me: Ircher and BigYoshiFan. I'm fine with voting either one this game phase. I'd need to go back through to link to specific posts for BigYoshiFan, but here's the basic breakdown for both reads:

BigYoshiFan - his ~scumread~ on titus and his reactions around her were very much of the omgus variety in that it could be boiled down to "titus' reasoning for suspecting me is bad so titus is suspect" - his suspicion of titus is artificial at best and is a reaction, not individually spawned. This can be seen by his reaction to people townreading the titus slot as well.

A lot of BigYoshiFan's sources of suspicion can be summed up with "what this person did didn't feel genuine" - there's no way to really poke at this reasoning. And it's not wrong in and of itself. But when it's the reason for most of your reads, it becomes an excuse rather than a reason. He also puts mild efforts to express a townread of Ircher in reaction to people suspecting him. Mind you, associative tells before a flip aren't the best to go off of, but it's a point for why ircher's number two.

Additionally, his reaction to my case against Gamma was "I promise more later, but it's intriguing" with nothing given later. Intriguing and interesting are two words with very similar uses: you say them and it can mean anything you want. Also note BigYoshiFan never shows any suspicion of Gamma prior to or after that post.

Ircher - Associative tells with BigYoshiFan are the main reason, to be honest. If you look through their interactions and the flow of their reads, there's a lot of them matching up in reads / supporting each other's cases and not a lot of actual direct interaction between them. It's indirect. Agreement, with little conflict of reads (or apparently not enough to converse with each other about their differences for some reason).

The stuff from today that has been mentioned could be included as well, but that's been covered.

I'd also like to make a premature claim because I can. I'm a

two shot gunsmith

, and I've used both shots on players that I couldn't get a good read on. One is MarioManiac4, the other is Penguin Power. Neither of them have guns. I'm making this claim now because the playerlist is small enough that having these results (especially since I can't get any more) out is beneficial given we don't know how many members of the scumteam there are. If you are a role with limited shots that is investigative and you've used them, I would suggest claiming now.

[RayFrost]

I'm going to need to catch up and sort my thoughts, which I'll be doing tomorrow. I am too busy today to be available to spend enough time on this.

Hi.

Oh, hello there.

[RayFrost]

That is a point that I'm willing to accept and embrace regarding MMM.

[RayFrost]

My preferred order would be BigYoshiFan -> Ircher -> MMM -> Priscila -> GammaEmerald -> MM4 / Penguin Power

[RayFrost]

One of MM4 / Penguin Power

No care between the two, but the two of them are the people I got no-gun results on, so yeah

[RayFrost]

Unvote until we've had all the claims please.

May I also know your reason for voting gamma?

[RayFrost]

I targeted penguin on night 2, with the result of penguin being gunless.

And on night one, I targeted mariomaniac4, with the result of being gunless.

[RayFrost]

No. I am not allowed to use the exact phrasing, as that would be quoting mod communication.

[RayFrost]

I live in Japan, it's currently evening here and I'm hanging out with friends of mine / talking about work for tomorrow with someone / etc. I'm sorry if my responses aren't ~timely~ enough for you.

My response was typed immediately after reading your post. You can take my word for that or not, I don't care. This post is also typed immediately after reading your complaints. Take my word for that or not, I don't care.

It's not how it was phrased - I stated that clearly with my response. I changed the phrasing because I didn't want to toe the gray line of quoting mod information, also clearly stated in my response.

It's completely outside the bounds of playing within the game to be asking about the precise phrasing of moderator given information in any standard game, and I very much dislike your attempts at doing so for reasons that I could go into but they're not game related and this debate probably would not be healthy to the game state.

[RayFrost]

I'd like to state that I do not find priscila's play this game to be scummy and am therefore unwilling at this point in time to vote for her. What even is the case?

[RayFrost]

While we're at it, what's the case for voting gamma?

[RayFrost]

I find it more likely that scum would make something up / sheep someone else to try and shift things away from them rather than express a lack of scumreads.

[RayFrost]

I dislike the view that a confirmation of not being a gun holder is confirmation of not-scum 100% of the time. It's possible for someone to be investigation immune.

For the time being

, I'm willing to see MM4 and Penguin Power as town based off of my results, but that doesn't mean we can blindly ignore anything suspect that they do.

[RayFrost]

Typically, gunsmith would not result in a "has a gun" for jailkeeper as far as I know.

Mod: By your definition of role interactions, if a gunsmith were to inspect a hypothetical jailkeeper, would it result in a result of having a gun or would it result in not having a gun?

As this is a purely hypothetical scenario that can't happen anyway given my two shots being up,

[RayFrost]

MMM, have you finished your reread? If so, what conclusions if any have you drawn about the remaining playerbase?

What's your read of BigyoshiFan?

[RayFrost]

I am blind.

[RayFrost]

The person who called for mass-claim was priscilla.

I had no intentions to mass-claim when I claimed.

[RayFrost]

Perhaps the real Cop or other investigative role is holding back to gather more info?

We have massclaimed. Why would they hold back when they could get a scum lynched and we have asked all to claim?

Because a counterclaim is a 1-for-1 trade that arguably gives scum more information than town. If I was scum, a real Cop would potentially be better off not counterclaiming, since he could spend several more Nights getting results. And if he ever got NKed, it would confirm me as scum anyway, so tha wouldn't be a concern.

While this isn't a correct assessment, there's other reasons that your claim is believable.

Let's assume you are scum for a moment and think about what you did:
You claimed cop in a game where you wouldn't know for sure if there was a cop, to claim a guilty on your scumbuddy who had "gotten away" with a watcher claim (meaning no counterclaim) and was about to be lynched in all likelihood due to the scumminess of their play.

So you prematurely fakeclaimed, with minimal information, in order to... do what? You were already townread. This just increased your risk for no actual gain.

[RayFrost]

For my clarification, you will be able to investigate tomorrow night. Yes?

[RayFrost]

By tomorrow, I mean this game night, words are hard

[RayFrost]

Don't do silly things.

[RayFrost]

1. So basically you're saying that from Ray's point of view, you should be confirmed scum, and vice versa?
2. As scum, how would you explain to town having survived another, say, 2 nights?
3. Assuming the lack of your death doesn't give you away, what results would you give after the scum roleblocker is a goner and you can't reasonably claim to not get results?

How does 1 follow from what he said?

[RayFrost]

VOTE: Kelvin Smith

You've lost me.

[RayFrost]

MMM's posting today, while it does seem suspect to me, is not suspicious enough for me to vote him over bigyoshifan at this time

[RayFrost]

I am incredibly amused that both BYF and MMM are working together in their attempts to be like "the claims are lies!"

Without being that direct and straightforward with it.

Such coordination.

[RayFrost]

So I'd like to start off with a comment saying that I lied a lil about my role.

I'm actually a three shot gunsmith. I wanted the first two results out just in case of anything and to get them out there in a game approaching a potential mislynch and lose situation if we got things wrong.

Problem is that I didn't get a result when I used my third shot last night, I targeted priscilla, I didn't get a result.

I'm not sure what to think of this, especially given it's like 3 am here, but I figured I'd drop this since I noticed the game thread's open.

[RayFrost]

Yes. And from town-Ray perspective he should have lock voted me because the only conclusion for that would be that I am ascetic.

Good morning, bit of time before work.

Incorrect assumption.

Just because there was one mafia roleblocker doesn't mean there can't be two, both with limited power,

or

that you're ascetic. And I made my post literally a minute after I logged in and saw my investigation result, so I didn't have time to think about which was more likely to be the case. I still haven't had time to do so.

And until I do, I'd appreciate it if you bozos would hold off on the voting. We're not quite in a game position where if there's two mafia we lose from quicklynching, but let's avoid another day cut short.

I'll be with you guys in like 10 hours, I have work, so yeah. I'll give the game some thought and be back ~latah~

[RayFrost]

I'd also like to point out that if I were scum there's no real motivation to make the post that I did given you guys had already believed my previous claim. Usually modifications like those would come if people were wanting me dead, not when people were like "okay we can write ray off for now"

[RayFrost]

Just finishing cleaning my house and preparing for someone to stay with me impromptu from today through Tuesday, so I'm a tad busy. Dropping in for about 30 minutes before I have to go pick aforementioned person up.

Jesus christ no.
Mafia don't have two roleblockers here. That's just bad. RBs are very powerful. They would NOT be given them to counter a gunsmith (instead, a doc/traitor), gated cop, and gated jailkeeper.
The ONLY way RayFrost's claim here could EVER be real is if Priscila is a Mafia Ascetic. Even then, 3-shot gunsmith is a BS role. Has 3-shot even ever been used in a Mini Normal at all?

Are you a real person who's really saying this

It took me [ur=viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68243&p=8356095&hi ... +#p8356095]about a minute[/url] to find a 3-shot gunsmith in a mini normal that ended as recently as last September. So let's just nix that entire concept of "it's one more than 2 so it's insanity and has never been done!" Which was silly to begin with.

I am not a big fan of setup speculation as a general rule to determine scumhunting without extensive experience with the moderators in question due in no small part to the fact that people's

ideas

about the balance shifts between x and y tend to not be exactly the same. For example, from my perspective, a two-shot roleblocker and an odd/even roleblocker wouldn't be so outlandish as to not be worth considering. From your perspective, it's Madness! Our ideas are different.

Note that I haven't just voted anyone. This is because I have to both review my reads this game, given the town flip on BYF, and also that I need to determine if there's anything that

can

be determined by my lack of result. I haven't thought of or considered all the possible role interactions at this time, so yeah.

There

is

something to be said of "from ray's perspective priscilla must be scum, so I'm going to vote ray for not instantly voting her" though. Nothing positive, but things could be said about it.

[RayFrost]

Mod(s): If you would be so kind as to add the missing "L" in the url tag above, that'd be much appreciated

[RayFrost]

I just remembered I have some work that I need to finish, soooo I'll be responding to this after.

I'm not ~avoiding~ the 1v1 with her. If there's no doubt that it's me or her, I'll throw down. The thing is that I came into this day with a mixed read on her and so am edgy against rushing the one for one - it's a lot easier to be like "you and me right here right now" when you've got a strong scumread on somebody. All of my gunsmith shots this game have been "I'm really not sure what to think of this person" reads

[RayFrost]

I'd also like to point out that if I were scum there's no real motivation to make the post that I did given you guys had already believed my previous claim. Usually modifications like those would come if people were wanting me dead, not when people were like "okay we can write ray off for now"

I had thought this at first, but I decided to wait for whether you were gonna post the same thing or not, and now it's just pure WIFOM. T__T

I mean, this was just my actual instant thought in reaction to the post that I was responding to.

I did not think about it until people were like "you are very suspicious for doing this thing" and my instinctual reaction was "that's completely nonsense"

And then I felt obligated to back up my reaction with words.

Shrug.

I'd like a bit of respect about me not being dumb. I can't seriously imagine any intelligent person going out of their way to fakeclaim a role when not heavily suspected, then changing the fakeclaim to something else when not suspected for the previous fakeclaim being made. That's like... actively suicidal. I dunno.

[RayFrost]

I'll openly admit that my knowledge of setup balance and generally things relating to that concept is actually awful. So, I'll concede arguments about that to the opinion of the masses.

You guys think it's an impossibility without one of me / priscilla being scum?

[RayFrost]

I'd comment on that but

would like Ircher to confirm that he is just an odd-night J/K

and leave it at that

[RayFrost]

I'll make more comments tomorrow morning, I'm too worn out from dealing with guest / work overflow that's only just ended to commit myself to ~things~

[RayFrost]

I have five minutes before I do my first dnd session in life, dropping in to say a quick "well, then" and reply to this.

I got a question for you:

Why didn't your slot cc or otherwise heavily doubt Havingfitz's Watcher claim D1? (Or maybe you did and I forget -- in that case, just quote yourself.)

The existence of a 3-shot gunsmith imo makes a full watcher very unlikely and a town 1-shot watcher pretty unlikely.

Without knowledge of

any other roles

, I had no explicit reason to suspect havingfitz's claim at the time.

And I definitely had no reason to counterclaim a role that wasn't mine on someone that, if they were lying, would be easy to catch anyway. Trading one for one, while it favors town, is unfavorable if it is unnecessary. He was not a priority.

Also read what I said about setup speculation

[RayFrost]

The mods have not communicated with me regarding their error and probably have no intention to do so.

[RayFrost]

That would be the case if it didn't directly impact the state of the game. Like if you send it wrong the player hasn't posted about it then you're like "hey woops this is the actual result"

Because I instantly posted about my results, the mods wouldn't have a choice in the matter. If they send me a change, it confirms me, and it impacts the game state directly. It'd be meddling. The mods right now have no choice but to think in their heads "goddammit we just screwed up and can't fix it" - I don't envy their position.

I do not understand the voting on gamma. Can someone explain to me the logic behind that?

[RayFrost]

UNVOTE:
holy shit mmm is actually town

Are you stating here, MM4, that your exchange with MMM leads you to think he's likely to be town after all this time you've spent sure that this wasn't the case?

[RayFrost]

PenguinPower: I would like an explanation as to why you chose to hammer the way you did

[RayFrost]

Given the above, my result regarding Priscilla is unchanged. The reasons for it happening are unclear, but that's that.

[RayFrost]

I'd like to have the rest of you guys confirm your belief that for my lack of a result to be accurate that Priscilla has to be lying scum or I have to be lying scum.

Before I decide to throw down the gauntlet.

[RayFrost]

Going into this game day and with the results currently out and such, what're your thoughts about who is most likely to be scum?

[RayFrost]

Given the assumption that the mods have hypothetically confirmed to me in a possible pm exchange that my potential result might have been quite accurate and therefore need no change,

would you believe that one of us must be lying scum?

Just hypothetically.

As a possible situation.

That may or may not occur or be occuring.

[RayFrost]

I put all the hypotheticals because it's not actually a hypothetical situation.

The moderation error was not explicitly related to my result, or the mods are outright lying to me (in which case, I quit. I just quit. I nope right the fuck out of everything.).

Though I'd like to see Priscila's reasoning for "ray is confirmed scum here"

Because I have popcorn. This will be great.

[RayFrost]

Quite seriously though, Priscila went straight 100% into the "ray must be scum this is a 1v1 lesgo" and is quite clearly appealing to emotion in the most recent post, and the style of posting has changed quite significantly from previous. This is amusing.

I'd like to see a post of me "appeasing" - the fact I don't have any hard scumreads is an artifact of not having clear reads. So, I'm questioning people and asking for things.

Care to explain your gamma vote while you're here?

[RayFrost]

You got "no result". Meaning you had to be blocked, or you are lying. Quite simple.

Okay.

Now give reasoning that doesn't rely on the basis of knowing that your role pm says your town

[RayFrost]

Vote: Priscila

Priscila completely self-destructed here.

[RayFrost]

Self-destructing scum is scum.

If you'd prefer for me to put it into direct words, here:

Priscila is mafia. Priscila is scum. Priscila is not town. We should lynch Priscila. This reasoning is very good.

[RayFrost]

Now give reasoning that doesn't rely on the basis of knowing that your role pm says your town

Dude you literally just admitted that I am town here.

Also if you really think this is "admitting you are town" please realize that I am saying that

your reasoning relies

on knowing your role pm says you are town.

We do not have this information.

Ergo, your reasoning is biased and useless.

[RayFrost]

Anyway, if someone wants me to go through the game and point out the scummy things in Priscila's slot or things that would come from scum motivatoin, Ic ould go about doing that, but currently her play in the past few pages I feel speaks volumes in and of itself.

Am willing to put in time and energy on request, but not now because it is almost 2 am and I need to sleep.

Y'all have a nice day / afternoon / evening / etc.

P-edit: You seem to think that I was sitting here thinking about this game the entire time since you posted that. I was actually not thinking about this game at all. I made a late dinner, started watching death race on netflix, and jerked off. Then I was like "eh, let's see what's going on in thread" and here I am.

[RayFrost]

Post 2734 is probably one of the funniest posts I've ever read that wasn't intentionally humorous.

[RayFrost]

I'm going back to my movie, dw penguinpower. Will check back in maybe 30 ish minutes from now or maybe when it ends in like an hour we'll see

[RayFrost]

Popping in to say please no lynch or anything right now don't have time for full post busy busy gimme a day tomorrow evening (roughly 24+ hours from now) will be back haven't read yet see yah then

[RayFrost]

Okay, so I'm here now. Reading what I missed during this day phase.

[RayFrost]

Gamma > Ray.

My gut theory was that Ray is scum and "cleared" me and MM4 betting on my mislynch and subsequent flip clearing him and MM4 (meaning they are both scum), but I like MM4 so I'm putting that aside for now.

I'm not subscribing to the no kill wifom, and I don't understand how Ray received no result, so my order is fairly mechanical.

This makes the least sense to me of all the reasons listed for why I'd be lynch-worthy.

"Ray faked an innocent on me so that I would get mislynched"

How

I don't

What

[RayFrost]

Although it once again introduces wifom, I'd like to point out that I actively changed my claim to three shot then said, right after the moderation's public statement, that my result had not changed.

This means my result was not related to the moderation error. (Side-note: if the mod decision was to actively lie to me about my result to "keep the game going" when it was actually a mistake, I will be beyond pissed. I trust it wasn't, though.)

If it was a fake result, what would've stopped me from taking the easy way out and just saying "my result was changed! haha, silly mods" to just out and out take advantage of the ~secret moderation mistake~ to basically free-clear myself?

None

of you would've thought anything of it.

[RayFrost]

Regarding the lynch candidates, I'd rather not say quite yet what my ordering is.

Instead, I'd like to ask a question of Penguin Power:

I cbf'd to make a quote-by-quote WoT case outside of MyLo/LyLo. If you want to lynch me for that...ok.

I'd like to take you up on this offer of a case during MyLo.

Make it for your top two: Gamma and myself.

I don't want the "it's just mechanical" excuse. I want reasons.

[RayFrost]

the advantage is that you keep doing what you wanted to do in the first place
lynch priscila and then wifom yourself out of it in lylo

Which is much easier than basically free-confirming myself town, swapping the wagon off priscila and thereby ruining town's momentum, and creating confusion?

Shrug

[RayFrost]

I'm feeling scum is in PP, Ray, and MMM. I don't see reason to doubt you Ircher and MM4 has been constantly towny.

Gamma, can you explain to me the why for each of these in order?

This is basically "everyone but ircher and mm4, who everyone seems to be considering town"

[RayFrost]

Ray followed by PP. I could see Gamma being scum but since scum no killing is a possibility maybe we should actually discount Ircher's target, in which case my lynch targets become Ray and PP as I said.

Is the only reason that you'd see a potential Gamma!scum would be from the lack of kill + the block by Ircher? Or are there other reasons that you consider relevant?

Why are those reasons not good enough to suspect Gamma more than PP? For what reasons do you feel PP is scum?

[RayFrost]

that's why i wanted to lynch priscila
but i still don't see any scum-aligned role ever being able to give you a no-result ever
it pretty much has to be traitor if you aren't GS

Traitor would give a no gun result, though.

The only way I should get no result is if I'm blocked.

[RayFrost]

Except that bit where it's not and I am telling the truth.

[RayFrost]

But this is a pointless argument.

[RayFrost]

PP: I know it's not literally what you said, but you're essentially saying that I plotted for you to get lynched so that, by claiming you were innocent and then not pushing for your lynch at all or doing anything to promote lynching you, I'd be roleconfirmed. Which wouldn't even confirm me unless I got a guilty and you showed up scum. Claiming a no gun result is easy for scum to fake. So......................................................

The logic of this doesn't make any sense.

[RayFrost]

In Gamma vs Penguin, I vote gamma

In Gamma vs MMM, I vote gamma

In MMM vs Penguin, I vote penguin

In anyone vs me, I vote the other person

I don't find it likely that MM4 / Ircher are scum this game.

I haven't been shown that my results are necessarily untrustworthy at this point in time, so it does tint my reads a bit. I'm not 100% about some things that I need to reread and clear up. This is a tentative list.

I need to spend an hour or two sitting down and just rereading. Likely to happen this evening (which is roughly 7 hours from now).

[RayFrost]

I'm awake

[RayFrost]

Vote: Gamma Emerald

Moment of truth.

[RayFrost]

I honestly wanted to no lynch this game day but didn't think anybody would be willing to take me up on that without reasons and if I gave the reasons it wouldn't be useful (if ircher's scum, he can't die - if he's town, he has to die or scum risk losing the game, so with no death the ircher claim is more suspect). I typed up a post about it then deleted it.

Ircher's claim wasn't solid to me but his play itself wasn't that scummy to me either.

MMM was very scummy to me, but I felt like Gamma / MMM was the team, so lynching one before the other didn't matter. PP actually seemed rather townish to me in the end.

[RayFrost]

My feeling regarding all the setup speculation: it's garbage and ends up doing bad things.

Hasn't changed from the results of this game.

Yoshi, nobody would've gone for it without an explanation, and if I explained it it wouldn't work

[RayFrost]

Also, I messaged thinkbig immediately after he said that thing about the results asking if my result was what it was supposed to be and he messaged me back saying yes:

No results

In light of the most recent post by you in thread.

I would like to confirm that

my result here is accurate to what I should have gotten given the night interactions that I do not know about in the previous game phase

No results is the correct result.

[RayFrost]

I am 99% certain that

nobody else

would've followed me on the no lynch, especially given they found me suspicious already. And I didn't want to push for something with the words "trust me" when I had no trust to work with.

And I hammered because I felt that the most likely scum team was MMM / Gamma and given that information lynching either one results in the same thing.

[RayFrost]

I'm going to go back to not playing mafia for different but similar reasons to the last time I quit.

[RayFrost]

I just want to know the mod error and the decision(s) made to fix it

[RayFrost]

So I was lied to in order to compensate for mod error.

Like I thought.

[RayFrost]

It's a lie.

It is literally the definition of a lie.

I was told something that was not true.

I was also "roleblocked" after the roleblocker was dead.

Which created a whole fucking shitload of problems in the game leading to priscila's lynch for basically no reason.

Which completely shifted the gamestate.

[RayFrost]

It opened me up for heavy scrutiny for no reason, which destroyed my ability to have as much influence over the game as I could have

Not to mention the heavy amounts of demotivation that come from nonsense

Mind you, there's not much to be done to fix a mod error, but I am heavily against the choice that was made.

[RayFrost]

I'm not saying it was the only cause but it was definitely a contributing factor based off of how much information was corrupted off of one lie told by someone who is

supposed to be infallible and tell no lies

.

[RayFrost]

My belief in Ircher's claim was tied to my feeling that Ircher's play was towny.

I wouldn't inherently trust a claim that was unproven by someone I didn't think was towny.

[RayFrost]

I would be okay with suffering with you.

[RayFrost]

I could break down my reasons for each investigation and the connected results from each one and how I would've changed my investigations given different results, but that's too much effort for a finished game.

P-edit: I'm willing to suffer with you for one game before that.

[RayFrost]

The thing with no lynch is I was 99% certain MM4 wouldn't push it, scum!Ircher wouldn't push it, gamma wouldn't understand it, MMM was likely scum, and no clue how PP would react

So pushing for it without an explanation just felt like it'd end up getting me further into a hole in terms of towncred without actually getting the result of no lynching.

And if I have to explain it, it doesn't work.

[RayFrost]

Eh, since I'm here and procrastinating, here is the mental breakdown for my investigation targets:

MM4 was my first target because I had a midling read on him and felt from his posting that he was not likely to be killed if town and more likely to be pushed as a mislynch - if he's scum, his most likely partners were in my mind ircher, bigyoshifan, and mortfeld. All three of these people were uncertain reads on me, so the connective results meant I'd be likely to make further reads. Additionally, MM4 seemed really easy to influence and push toward my way of thinking toward later in the game, which is favorable in that I trust my reads and having someone I can push to follow me is an advantage.

Reason to not investigate other people: I genuinely did townread gamma after the day 1 interactions, I townread the Tarkus slot, had an iffy read regarding MMM (honestly was leaning scum or hard-scum to me all game), and I felt that the other players were more likely to die if they were town (aside from bigyoshifan - it was a tossup between the two, but yoshi felt like he'd be more stubborn and less likely to sheep me if I pushed for it in a late game situation).

N2, given the no-gun result on MM4, I was less likely to go with either of ircher / bigyoshifan due to the decreased connective read that I could get. And that day phase passed without me even really getting to be part of it. So it's back to "who's unlikely to die" - the lurked slot on penguinpower. There we go. Another hard to read but likely to live to endgame slot.

N3, I actually wavered between MMM and Priscila, but in the end I decided to go with trying for as many town-confirmations as possible rather than going for a scum confirmation. I felt that I could get that lynch on MMM without many issues regardless, so there's little to no reason to have a guilty on top of it. And at this point, I'm also trying to clear out the people that I am uncertain about in their connections to the read - gamma + MMM / Priscila + MMM / Ircher + MMM were what was left.

With the discussion of mafia doc etc etc, I felt it was likely that if there was one on the scumteam that of any of the combinations, Ircher's claim made him the most likely to give a false innocent if he's guilty. So, I don't investigate that potential partner. With the others, it's a 50/50 between MMM or the other one giving a potential false innocent. Then, I still have a moderate townread on gamma (it's weakened but still there), so that leaves Priscila.

Then I got ruined by mod error and mod "compensation" lost all motivation to play the game because of the snafu and really lost my hold on the game since I went from a position of power to a position of what is this garbage nonsense and all of the posting surrounding that was essentially a full day of white noise with no purpose.

[RayFrost]

If I had received no result on MM4, I would have investigated one of ircher / bigyoshifan come night two, likely ircher because yoshifan was actually a stronger townread to me if forced to pick between the two come night 2.

If I had received a no result on PenguinPower, I would have investigated PenguinPower again because of the negative whiplash regarding his hammer and I didn't feel that it was very alignment indicative and would want to clear that up so that we could get back to who I found suspect, which was MMM.

[RayFrost]

And I would have claimed two-shot gunsmith at the same time that I did with the result of my investigations no matter what they were, as it would inherently push scum away from killing me (a power role that's used all its power already?) and the reactions surrounding my results would help to point me in the right direction for my final shot.