Mini 1906 - It's An Owners Market Blitz (Game Over)

[Prism]

VOTE: Socrates

It's not like we didn't know when the game was starting/have time to collect our thoughts beforehand.

The strategy is to bid minimum of 301 on the items. That way if a scum outbids us in the first round that scum can't outbid our maximum bid in future days.

Unsure how to feel about this strategy.

Intuitively it seems fine but winning the bid means a single scum can outbid you two or even three times in the future, with $199 vs. $800. The sheer number of town make up for it to some extent but it's obvious that scum is going to prioritize certain roles, eg. Daykill, over others and save accordingly. Plus side is that they take a risk if they leave someone with the majority of the money.

Depending on result of day I have a bit more to discuss theory wise but it's going to wait for now.

[Prism]

Actually I think I should just discuss it now.

Scum's optimal play is to run up the cost on the low-utility powers (ex. Doctor x1) by slightly lowballing it. They've got the wallets such that taking on a few of these by mistake is not that big of a deal. Paying $300 to deny us Doctor x2 would be nice while making town pay a hefty price if they want to make it otherwise is also swell.

Wonder here then is how to optimally bid on these as town, I've thought anywhere from $100 to the $301 Albert suggested and can't really come to a solid conclusion. A big worry I have is that while our total is better, $4500 vs. $2400 to start, we lose $500

at best

every night and another $500 any time we mislynch. A mislynch+night death and a few overpays can switch the monetary advantage very quickly.

[Prism]

To more succinctly summarize what my issue with Albert's strategy is: Town is overpaying because of other town, rather than because of scum, for roles that have less utility. This would be us accomplishing scum's goal for them and eliminating the risk that they overpay instead of us.

[Prism]

I can't tell if this is just an act or what. The dayvig is via private message and doesn't reveal who used it.

[Prism]

I clearly got a dayvig in my scum role PM.

Alternatively, I actually took the time to read the post where it describes the powers.

Do you even know the setup?

[Prism]

[Prism]

To more succinctly summarize what my issue with Albert's strategy is: Town is overpaying because of other town, rather than because of scum, for roles that have less utility. This would be us accomplishing scum's goal for them and eliminating the risk that they overpay instead of us.

What's the difference between town overpaying because of town and because of scum?

When town

gets it

, nothing. But we don't want to overpay to

begin with

, and if scum tries to make us by driving up the bid, we want them to be the one overpaying instead.

Ie. Scum wants to drive the price up while still losing the bid in a lot of cases. Encouraging everyone to overpay as town accomplishes this and removes the risk of them winning, and overpaying, by mistake.

[Prism]

Odd to me that everyone is largely null so far, normally I can at least make a leap somewhere. I do agree with Desperado's sentiment on Elena but that's it thus far. I hope the game picks up more tomorrow.

[Prism]

Not liking the early townreads on Tywin. I came to the same conclusion originally, largely based off of the tone in his early posts on dayvig, but after reconsideration strongly feel that this is a purposeful display of brashness regardless of what he is. I think it's an act, the further it goes I'm leaning that it's a scum one.

[Prism]

VOTE: Tywin

Right, I have a vote I can put places.

Elect: Vecna

I'm a bit more convinced on $301 as a good betting number for town but still unsure. 16 roles and $6400 total averages out to $150 each, meaning you should be able to get several at a discount when people die, and when scum are forced to bet $501 on things like dayvig and auction detective x2.

[Prism]

First and foremost after thinking further I concur with ABR & Vecna that bidding $301, even on relatively weak powers, is the optimal move for town. One shot doctor, one shot JK, one shot commuter, one shot tracker/watcher all are individually weak but when combined add up to a big chance of a failed or caught scum NK.

So lemme get this straight. You think I'm scum and my scum buddies came out to purposely call me town? And you TR me before, but now you don't because others called me town? And do you think the scum team is me, Socrates, and infinite?

Lol? That's the most fabricated excuse I've ever seen. Sadly, I don't see you as scum, or I'd be on your ass hard for it. I just wonder what possibly you'd be thinking. Do you assume me, Socrates, and infinite are all bad scum players or something? What scum would attach themselves so quickly on D1 without cause? It makes no sense, so please elaborate further.

Don't make a shit statement and assume you won't get called in it. I'm calling you on it btw.

None of this is accurate in responding to what I actually posted. It is incredibly far off from what I actually posted and you didn't even quote where I explained myself. I

never

accused the people townreading you of being scum. On the contrary, I explained that I understood exactly how they felt, but were coming to the wrong conclusion. Furthermore, I

never

suggested that my readshift had anything to do with anyone other than yourself. Here's the actual post I made:

Not liking the early townreads on Tywin. I came to the same conclusion originally, largely based off of the tone in his early posts on dayvig, but after reconsideration strongly feel that this is a purposeful display of brashness regardless of what he is. I think it's an act, the further it goes I'm leaning that it's a scum one.

To clarify further:

Not liking the early townreads on Tywin. I came to the same conclusion originally, largely based off of the tone in his early posts on dayvig, but after reconsideration strongly feel that this is a purposeful display of brashness regardless of what he is. I think it's an act, the further it goes I'm leaning that it's a scum one.

Interesting, can you elaborate?

I think he's overplaying the "I'm bidding 100% for the dayvig come at me I don't give a fuck I'm so town all that matters is lynching sucm fuck the powers" act to appear town. I think there is a chance that he is doing it as town but that either way it is cognizant, purposeful, and deceitful. In general, I think it is more likely to come from scum.

[Prism]

I'm liking Infinity and Socrates so far, I'm inclined to agree with Infinity that this looks really bad for Gamma right now. I wanted to wait before I brought up meta on him because his early game was weak from what I could recall up until about 30-40 pages in where he became obvious town. Now even if he does that there's the question of "You know your fate and thus can change it," and I'll probably be paranoid the rest of the game. On the other hand he might still become obvious scum despite Infinity's best advice.

Vote after Tywin would probably go to gerryoat who similarly seems to be purposely playing below par. Perhaps I'm being unfairly biased against this style of play but for now I'll throw it out there. When I got him as town in Evoker, I believe it was largely for similarity in reads.

[Prism]

I think he's overplaying the "I'm bidding 100% for the dayvig come at me I don't give a fuck I'm so town all that matters is lynching sucm fuck the powers" act to appear town. I think there is a chance that he is doing it as town but that either way it is cognizant, purposeful, and deceitful. In general, I think it is more likely to come from scum.

Why do you think this, because town normally just wouldn't be that aggressive?

Why could town possibly be putting on that act?

The town possibly putting on the act is one that thinks of the game in a utilitarian sense, not minding if people townread them for a wrong reason.

That said, the point of my post and vote is that I don't think this is the most likely outcome. I've seen town force certain playstyles to seem town, for instance, gerryoat's play in Trial of the Evoker as Sondam is very much artificially aggressive and condescending for what I think was this exact purpose, but I don't think this one (Tywin's) is as likely to come from town. Some elements of gerryoat's (Sondam's) play in Evoker was very much centered around pressuring other players, there is little of that in Tywin's posts, whose brashness has said or extracted

nothing

from other players, and anything that has has been very much unintentional on his part. Its

only

purpose, if it's faked or overplayed as I suspect, is to be townread.

[Prism]

Making that connection is actually pretty important for my own understanding of why my gut leans scum on gerryoat this game. It's extremely early on but he

hasn't

had that same character and is more just flaunting being dead weight with very little overt purpose.

Probably a case of "Should have waited" meta along with Gamma but I didn't even have the origin of my feeling pinned down until you asked.

[Prism]

I'm liking Infinity and Socrates so far, I'm inclined to agree with Infinity that this looks really bad for Gamma right now. I wanted to wait before I brought up meta on him because his early game was weak from what I could recall up until about 30-40 pages in where he became obvious town. Now even if he does that there's the question of "You know your fate and thus can change it," and I'll probably be paranoid the rest of the game. On the other hand he might still become obvious scum despite Infinity's best advice.

Vote after Tywin would probably go to gerryoat who similarly seems to be purposely playing below par. Perhaps I'm being unfairly biased against this style of play but for now I'll throw it out there. When I got him as town in Evoker, I believe it was largely for similarity in reads.

Others are below par? What exactly have you done? You called me scum by claiming I'm putting on an act, yet you're unable to explain why you think this. That means you are either really sugar or simply lied about read switching on me. Do the work or don't pretend you're playing better than anyone here.

As for gamma, you are still pushing for the easiest lynch, while not even trying to seen It from all angles. Scum almost never get lynched D1, and too many of you (aka all) have called him scum without even a single decent reason. Activity is NAI. He may very well flip scum, but I think it would be pure luck if he did, and frankly, when I see so many votes on one player without cause, I'm pretty positive its scum driven.

I'm starting to see you as scum here. You're reads are fake, you cry about me misrepresenting your posts as if the problem didn't originate with your unclear wording (And subsequent unclear explanation), and then you try calling others subpar and say that's a SR somehow.

We'll see soon, since you won't get lynched today if scum anyways, but if gamma flips town, I'm going after you first.

Are you fucking insane?

None of this is even CLOSE to what I have said.

[Prism]

Like I'm sorry but if you got me pushing a team of you/Infinity/whoever the hell else it was out of the first post, and that I'm pushing Gamma and not trying to see him as town out of those, there is

no way in hell

that that is my fault.

[Prism]

Rereading and having calmed down I can kind of get how you thought I was pushing Gamma, but my point was that he's a "Wait and see" type of player. He is neither of my top two votes and I've said as much.

I strongly feel though that you're getting too indignant and missing what I'm saying. I'm not asking you to write me a literary analysis but there's a lot that you're just glossing over or missing completely, filling in the gaps with things that aren't accurate. Not at least pondering or thinking about what I'm trying to say, and instead just skimming and jumping to first conclusion/assumption, is a guaranteed nonstarter for productive conversation. I mean this in the sense that instead of getting meaningful or deeper thoughts from me you're getting restatements or even anger/spite from me.

I will readily admit that my response was not mature or productive, instead getting indignant myself, but hopefully this demonstrates exactly what I mean. My first instinct was to work myself into a furor and type up a huge paragraph about how you

had

to be scum with your latest posts, but that really isn't true and through actually typing something up and calming down rationality won out.

[Prism]

Heads up but I may not have internet access again today-I will stop by early in the morning and try to figure out where the best spot for my votes to sit will be as a contingency plan.

[Prism]

"Today" meaning game day

[Prism]

Back from no internet access, reflections coming either when I finish my food or in the morning depending on how tired I am after.

[Prism]

I really like Elena's read on Gerry. The ones they've given on me and ABR honestly aren't great in their reasoning-for instance ABR's just seems like a conscious playstyle choice-but I can clearly see what they're thinking with Gerry when I read through what I missed yesterday.

Tywin has also gotten significantly better, ironically through me investigating his Elena SR from earlier. His progression actually made sense. It was a mostly gut scumread reinforced by something relatively weak objectively, propelled by that initial spark when you first get a scumread, and over time he seemed to naturally drift elsewhere

with reason

. I disagree with a lot of #417, for example

why

he townread Vecna, but it reads very legitimately and is honestly what I'd expect out of the kind of player he's shown himself to be. This is a bit backhanded and condescending of a compliment so my apologies for that but it's what I think.

Socrates bothers me. I don't like his implication that something someone else in another game did applies cross-contextually to Vecna. I understand that mechanical posts aren't a towntell, but the way you (Socrates) were pushing it as a broader reason to discredit Vecna bothers me. In particular, lines like "You sit there and look pretty, Vecna" seem a lot like you're more concerned with him getting governor, and not you, than a true scumread. It was like you were running a campaign and barely cared what Vecna actually was.

Socrates's vote in #446 was also terrible. He asked Tywin, his top townread, who to vote. Gerry, who as far as Ctrl+F can tell Socrates never gave a read on or said a word about alignment wise, suggests he vote Wood and Socrates immediately does so, 5 minutes later, without thinking. You're looking for Tywin, he doesn't answer, and in 20 minutes you just take what the first person gave you. To top it off, here's all he said about Wood, #95.

VOTE: Socrates

Feel Prism might be Town with a bit of confusion. His delayed vote on Tywin feels like town who thought "I should probably vote this guy since I SR him".

This bothers me. I simply forgot to vote, but the alternative thought process you're describing is a scumtell: It's suggesting that I'm concerned with my appearance and that I should vote how people

think

town should be voting. How do you think your described thought process is a towntell?

P-Edit: Good vote, good reasoning.

[Prism]

Oh wow there's like 4-6 votes on him this is great, I just got up to today.

I don't know what ABR is doing but it's really stupid. I haven't townread him at all and this is pushing the wrong way, I'd probably slot him next to gerry in the null but can lynch bucket.

Infinity is a really tough read but he's townreading me and voting well so I'm going to give him a free pass.

I'm also really upset because Vecna

gave the optimal strategy

for himself and promptly proceeded not to use it:

If people elect me for mayor i can get the commuter and just wifom my way to the endgame....forcing scum to get lucky and guess when ill use it - or kill someone with low ammounts of gold

Using it N1 is optimal to guarantee town gets minimum two rounds of picks. I shifted to townreading Tywin from reading yesterday but when I first saw Vecna dead and Tywin picked I immediately wondered about Tywin, who would be the best in the scumteam to pick for market owner (Due to him being able to say "Fuck you I'm bumping up dayvig")

[Prism]

Apparently I'm not the only one who forgot to submit my bids. I love how Doctor x1 is going for more than Doctor x2.

Socrates who are your SRs?

Sorry, I closed the page in a huff after I thought I was hammered. I should have done this.

I should it anyway, I guess.

Wow, this reads very genuinely. /s

I am now going to be looking at Prism under a microscope because I wonder it she tried to 'accidentally' quickhammer me before the town could bid on roles.

So much for your microscope. I knew the rules, and knew you weren't lynched.

Oh wow there's like 4-6 votes on him this is great

Yeah, you'll notice that I have said little about ANYONE besides Vecna and my back and forth with Albert about him. That's because I haven't been participating in the game. You can't waggle your finger at me about not talking about particular people when I haven't even BEEN HERE.

I find it really hard to believe you don't see why I find that troubling to begin with, especially given the link to #95. Claim I'm putting the wrong stock in it, sure, but the way you're getting indignant about how I could even

suggest

that this is scummy is really pinging me as an attempt to shame me out of it something that clearly has merit.

See also, your #565 which is trying to put all kinds of leaps into Gamma's mouth. I'm not bothering to parse and check the validity of all of those but the way you're going about it is all kinds of wrong.

Gamma is still hard null. This is a new one. I suspect the heavy meta pressure is making him change his playstyle regardless of what he is.

[Prism]

I really don't know what ABR is doing. Dumb town, blind leading the blind, realizes it's not an actual lynch...and votes Socrates.

Gerry's gotten more like the Gerry of Evoker and is also right on Socrates. I'm not going to underestimate him but I wouldn't put him up there anymore. I think this game is going to be pretty easy when more people become active (RC, Desperado). I'm townreading Elena and Tywin and lean it on Gerry now.

P-Edit: Really difficult and I've honestly focused more on Socrates. Your tone is really off which is more of what I've been watching for. Most of your posts I remember are just like, questions that I don't think are alignment indicative at all. Socrates trying to strongarm you is good but the rest honestly isn't great. I don't know if you realize this or not but your vote on Socrates at the end of yesterday doesn't get you any credit even if he's mafia, it was so late and seemingly arbitrary. Socrates is also right that your "other than" question is just tedious and unnecessary. He meant in a hypothetical world in which he's scum, because you scumread him and presumably think you're right, and that's clear to me at least.

[Prism]

I realize you asked for my read chronologically but it's honestly just blurred together to me and while I can review it through the lens you suggested with the before/after that's not really my #1 priority.

[Prism]

Oh right, the game we got mafia and town wanted to lynch us day 1 for being bad

Prism can you tell me the similarities you see then?

Similarity was that your attitude was simultaneously overconfident but still investigative. It was very apparent to me in Evoker that you were playing up your scumreads (saying at some points that certain people were claiming scum or were absolutely scum) but you did it with a purpose (reactions both from them and others).

I'm not completely sold but you can get a pass for now. I've never seen you as scum.

[Prism]

This is a fair point as well. I like Prism, but my gut is telling me there's something there. Prism is saying the right things, but if there was someone doing some sneakiness, Prism would fit the bill.

Unfortunately, this theory cannot be tested after the fact (whether or not Prism was gunning for a quicklynch) as it has been revealed. Still, that's something I'm keeping in the back of my mind.

Again annoyed, I quoted where I showed I knew the rule. I said "Oh there's already 4-6 votes on him that's great."

If it was 6 votes he would have been hammered and I'd be wondering about it. I was clearly just happy other people concurred with the read.

I don't know how to read RC. The people I need to read aren't really ones who have been participating that much.

[Prism]

Okay, and your thoughts on these games compared to this one are....

[Prism]

I fail to see how this is really relevant to this game, or how you're using this to inform your read on Gerry.

[Prism]

Unvote

I'm open to voting Gamma but simultaneously am more confident in Socrates. Even if you don't find anything else damning, the fact that he didn't even try to help us out on his supposed way down and just closed the tab and left says a lot. I'll be back soon.

[Prism]

@Regfan:

I would not replace me yet, but it is likely at this juncture that I will need a replacement soon. I would begin searching for one, though I will try to continue playing for now.

[Prism]

Haven't had time to read, more confident in Socrates.

VOTE: Socrates

[Prism]

Good job dragging me to the finish line Infinity. In hindsight I really should have placed more stock in him just not being obviously town, especially after the whole "But what's your point?" interaction he had with me.

Gerry death combined with my continued disbelief of Soc makes me still think Soc for 3rd.

For obvious reasons I'm voting Tywin today. Infinity's math isn't exact because he's not removing the roles already chosen, the real chance is (8/20)*(7/19)*(6/18)*(5/17) or 1.44%. So that's a 98.55% chance of him being scum. I think it's weird that he wouldn't just lie and say he picked Tracker x2 but fundamentally I don't think it matters. I don't think he realized just how unlikely that claim was before making it. I've always wondered what I would do if one of my townreads had a probabilistically high chance of being scum because I'm a pretty stubborn player, and now I have my answer.

VOTE: Tywin

The Tywin/Desperado interactions are really weird and unnatural. Desperado's barely been mentioned to this point but him voting with ABR is somehow hardclaiming scum with ABR. On the flip side, all of Tywin's posting today came

before

Infinity outed the math that is pretty damning. Tywin didn't yet know how bad it would be to claim these, assuming he's scum which I think is a safe bet. If he did, he wouldn't have done it to begin with. He did not yet know that he was a sunk ship. Caling these posts "flailing scum" is really odd especially when there's actual salient points there. For instance, Tywin makes a great point about me accidentally nearly saving Soc because of the tie mechanic. I was a frantic mess that day with a whole host of outside game issues and straight up forgot it, even despite Tywin apparently pointing it out in #728. I remember thinking that one of the people on Gamma/Soc like gerry would swap to guarantee it if needed, but it was a really stupid unvote and Tywin is right to push it.

Tywin tunneled Socrates for half the game, was open to him being scum with Gamma and ABR, but suddenly forgets about him entirely today and is just shoving the lurker on the way down. Again he's almost certainly scum, but this whole interaction is just weird.

[Prism]

Actually I guess I can see how this could be "flailing" from Desp's point of view as Desp had already voted him and Tywin immediately lashed back. I think that's pretty null actually.

[Prism]

It's actually even worse.

tl;dr: 99.66% chance Tywin is scum.

Regfan's example shows that the enhanced rolls have their original "lottery number" plus an additional four.

12 roles were left last night. 8 were not picked, 4 were. Add 4*4=16 additional lottery numbers to make 28 total numbers to be drawn, 20 of which belong to the enhanced lottery picks. 8/28 chance for first unenhanced roll to be picked, remove it from the pool, 7/27 for the next, and so on.

(8/28)*(7/27)*(6/26)*(5/25)=0.34%.

[Prism]

I've triple and quadruple checked it. The chance is not 2.5% but 0.3%.

This is of

any

grouping not including the four, not this specific grouping.

I already explained the math. I'm pretty intoxicated but I'm confident in my sober calculations.

[Prism]

So, uh, Socrates, you want to acknowledge that Tywin is all but confirmed scum or what? Feel free to check over my math yourself.

[Prism]

Okay, and when Tywin flips scum Elena...?

[Prism]

VOTE: ABR

[Prism]

Its purpose was to highlight that we have been over the fact that votes don't cause a lynch until Day 5

twice

now, and you got pointed out about it yesterday.

You corrected yourself immediately afterwards so the purpose is defeated, but I wanted to gauge the reaction to me voting in supposed LyLo.

[Prism]

Your mechanics are a bit off but I concur that we should massclaim.

I got Ninja x2 for $302 and Tracker x2 for $198. Socrates didn't visit.

More to come when I get home.

UNVOTE:

[Prism]

Tough to tell if ABR is legitimate in his last second push after not paying attention to mechanics at all this game. Auction Detective is also only good for today, not previous days, but is still really useful.

Scum may still have $500 as they've likely been saving one person for cop/godfather but if you have it you should still bet it to clear yourself of having the daykill. Auction Det can catch a liar or clear someone as having honest bets tonight.

Either way, if you're town claim everything ASAP.

[Prism]

@ABR: Who's scum and why was I your vote?

Instinct is still Socrates+someone else. Momo might be scum but spending $351 on Neighborizer would be really strange. Granted, I don't get why you'd bid that over $301-$310 as town either, but it's more of a stretch as scum.

[Prism]

I mean I apologize to Tywin for the result but he's got to realize that no matter how certain I am in townreading someone, and it was only a medium on him since I don't know his meta, I am not going to ever even get

close

to a 99.7% accuracy. I get being frustrated but if he doesn't realize why I did that that's his problem. He can throw a fit and call us names all he wants, we did the smart thing.

Socrates:

What did you buy? There is no point delaying it.

RC

: You only bought Tracker x1, then, correct?

[Prism]

Desperado naked voted without claiming as well. I'm assuming that's just a scumread because if he didn't cc RC for Tracker x1 yesterday he's getting lynched.

If either of him/Socrates are town they need to fucking claim.

[Prism]

Desperado didn't bet his $500 despite being told that he should do so immediately as town, by at least 3 people. I think RC is likely to be scum but this is a dumb lynch that no one has explained and just handwaved as "Well I guess it's RC."

VOTE: Desperado

Tywin was a freak probabilistic accident. If Desperado is town he honestly deserves to lose. You can make the argument that if he is, I'm to blame for not reading him correctly but I don't think it would hold water.

Probably going to be forced to switch back onto RC by way of majority vote (and not letting the daykill swing it to a third person) but for now I'm putting this up.

[Prism]

Reading his ISO it's actually not as bad as I thought for like the first 10 posts, his reads are fine other than maybe Socrates. He's just been awful post Day 1, and again, why on earth do you see 3 people telling you to put $500 down to clear yourself and then just not do it?

[Prism]

It's not "silly", you literally had the chance to prove you can't have the daykill in MyLo and said no.

Why should I vote RC over you? No one disputes the Tracker x1, $300+ is a lot to pay for scum RC.

[Prism]

Do I townread ABR? No. Do I want to vote him over Desp? No, and not even over RC.

RC's reason for voting ABR is the biggest cop out ever. It's justifying voting his townread by saying "Haha whoops, forgot with ABR when I townread him he's scum"

Meanwhile Socrates hasn't even posted in MyLo

[Prism]

Actually scratch that he did post and I just forgot, because he

still hasn't said what he bid on

and hasn't posted in at least two days.

[Prism]

Honestly it doesn't even matter because he has to have bought gravedigger and/or doctor and it doesn't take a genius scum to figure out that's what he has to claim.

I'll go back over ABR in a bit. I agree that RC is likely scum (I think the Elena kill was just to give credence), it's just frustrating that Desp/ABR/Soc are all avoiding being protown like the plague, and make it hard to justify voting him given someone has go be scum with him.

[Prism]

Don't think Desperado is going to get wagoned at this point, and votesplitting is dangerous. I'm just going to hope for the best here.

VOTE: RC

[Prism]

Prism, what happened to your Socrates push? Why do you suddenly feel like RC is better than Socrates? Because of the wagon presence on RC?

I got a no visit on him last night. I don't think it clears him but it's better than nothing.

I still really just want Desperado. There was 0 reason to not bet $500 earlier if he was going to anyway as he claims. If the game isn't over I guarantee that whatever he bet on is going to be hidden.

[Prism]

I'll have my thoughts up sometime tomorrow.

[Prism]

Daykill was completely random. The game was over. Were it to be optimal it would have been used on Infinity.

Gerry died over Infinity for several reasons but 1. Had Soc in addition to Gamma 2. Likely had a full wallet or tracker 3. Obviously town post-Gamma flip and less likely doc target than Infinity 4. Infinity townread me

My saving of Socrates pointed out by Tywin was both unintentional and a gigantic misplay brought about by my poor state at the time. Completely accidental that it set momo to be lynched, was absolutely not what I was going for. I was incredibly upset I messed that up. My push of Socrates was meant to clear me/him regardless of which of us flipped first. I'd be explained as trying to save Gamma, or as having passed up shoving one scum for another, and guessing that it was both me/Socrates would have been incredibly difficult...until I accidentally put momo as the top vote and ruined it.

@Oversoul: Stylistic choice on discussion of mechanics was intentional. I was very sure to balance the actual scumhunting aspects appropriately. If you picked up on this intentionality then it'd be useful, but that kind of depth accuracy is practically impossible. It's just that mechanics are very null.

I appreciate the comments on my play-I had a lot of fun and am grateful that you think I did so well.

That said there were some

astounding

misplays from both sides here, including me. Town really should have never lost this game. My accidental bids on both Ninja and Tracker x2 were devastating, and I immediately thought I had lost the game. It should have been extremely easy to catch me in the lie there. Why is Tracker hidden if scum didn't go for it? Why did I split the way I claimed to? Why did I bid $302 on Ninja when I acknowledged optimal town bid is $301? (Ie. Would be denying townbids, not scum ones) Socrates was easily provably mafia by way of not having the funds he claimed, and I'd be in near mechanical autoloss. Bonus that I fucked up with claiming the Socrates no visit track.

I was scared shitless of someone, particularly Desp, having bet more than $198 on Tracker x2 and catching me in a lie. Nope, no one did.

[Prism]

I also noticed the Tywin bodyguard claim but figured he meant bulletproof, and even if he didn't I wasn't going to be the one to give him an opening at telling the truth.

[Prism]

I also have the exact opposite thoughts of ABR. Town had a huge advantage mechanically. The bids themselves are investigative, serving to clear some players while damning others. Ex. Socrates didn't have as much as he claimed, momo essentially cleared himself with the high neighborizer bid.

Town also literally had double the money of scum. Plenty of money to go around. $5000 vs. $2400. Town figured out that all of them bidding $301 meant that we couldn't do shit without being caught in a lie later (Scun can only win one power each for $301 before the numbers stop adding up).

Even if the goal was just to deny us the daykill, with 0 other benefits (again of which there were several) hardly any of the town was following the clear optimal bidding strategy and just dying with full wallets, instead letting me hoard all of the powers. Doctor, Bulletproof, etc. all had potential to negate the ML lost via daykill. Desperado had the chance to half clear himsefl in MyLo and

didn't do it

and called scumreading it "silly". This isn't even going into Tywin boosting Daykill and lying, or not buying Ninja. Ironically my bidding mishap actually made that last part turn out okay.

Regfan explicitly stated that town could NL, but not only did ABR misinterpret it,

no other town caught it

. Both scum did. I said it in the scum PT but that last day was so apathetic and such a throw. Oversoul was too pure for that cruel world.

[Prism]

Yeah, I mean town put in a lot of effort to get you and then just thought the game was over.

I'm fine releasing the scum PT, by the way.

[Prism]

I'm still interested on hearing other thoughts on the game, from both town members and particularly from Regfan as an outside party.