[SETUP] Betting Mafia

[Tenshii]

Is this the right place to post this? I just thought of this idea. It's a setup based around betting on a player's flip. I want see what people think of it.

2 Mafia Goons

vs

7 Vanilla Townies

Mafia have daytalk, but do not have a nightkill.

Each player starts out with $100 to bet with throughout the game.

Day - Standard voting/lynch mechanics. However, the person who is lynched doesn't flip until the start of the next day.
Night - Each player will privately submit a bet with 1:1 odds (against the mod) on what the lynched player will flip. Bets must be made in increments of $10.
Start of Day - The player lynched from the previous day will be flipped. All bets made and players' totals will also be revealed. The player with the least amount of money will also die.

The game keeps going on until either:
1. Both mafia are dead (Town win)
2. Mafia controls half the population (Mafia win)
3. 3 players are alive. At this point, the player with the most money will win the game for their faction.

Pre-Game:
In addition to the $100 each player starts out with, each player will start out with a bonus $1-$9 dollars. No two players will have the same bonus.
The mafia will decide who gets what bonus. This will prevent ties and also theoretically replaces RVS.

Thoughts?

[Tenshii]

I think, in theory, only the players who are confident and consistently make correct reads will live.

[Tenshii]

What do you mean by incremental betting? Do the players know what other players are betting or are they betting against the mod? You should probably clarify how exactly this works.

Betting against the mod.

Also, since the mafia already know the flip of the lynched player, won't they always win?

Reads can be made based off of bets. Like if scum is going to bet everything on a flip and they haven't shown a legitimate train of thought to arrive at it, they're likely to get lynched the following day.

[Tenshii]

What do you mean by incremental betting?

Bets can be made in increments of $10. So the following bets can be made: $10, $20, $30, etc.

[Tenshii]

With the bonus, the starting totals (for Day 1) would look like this.

Player A: $101
Player B: $102
Player C: $103
etc...

If Player A and B both betted $10 on a flip, they would either both win or lose $10. They'd be at $91/$92 or $101/$102. If they both managed to come in last place, the $91/$101 would die.

Same concept applies to Final 3.

[Tenshii]

Err...They both can't manage to come in last place. But yea you get the idea.

[Tenshii]

Do you think the town:scum ratio should be changed then?

[Tenshii]

Ahh didn't think of that.

I'm not personally sure that I would agree with that if I was consensus scumread though. Like agreeing to that is essentially self-hammering right? Or at least that's the way I'm imagining it.

Also, that guarantees a consensus scumread doubling their money. This would be terrible lategame.

[Tenshii]

Wow that's lame.

Although I think that only works because of the threat of being lynched the next day.

So if this situation were to occur the day before Final 3, it wouldn't work.

Therefore, with this town:scum ratio, this strategy would only work if scum got lynched Day 1.

[Tenshii]

Ah.

So if the optimal strategy is to bet on a town flip every time, the game becomes how much each player will bet?

Assuming each player wants to survive/win Final 3, I don't see why everyone would agree to $50.

[Tenshii]

Kinda tempted to just run the setup awyways

[Tenshii]

I think at that point you have to assume the person will flip a certain way.

2v3 = Assume scum, because a town flip results in a loss anyway
1v4 = Assume town, because a scum flip results in a win anyway