Micro 710: Backup6 (Game Over)

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Tenshii
VOTE: Tenshii
VOTE: Tenshii

You didn't count on me being the Triplevoter.

[BTD6_maker]

Echovision, I didn't know you were Not_Mafia's alt.

FireScreamer, can you explain your MM read? As far as I can see, the only reason you have given is in 45 and even that is unclear.

[BTD6_maker]

MM got multiple chances for the correct response of "of course I don't townread you for that, you just read what I was townreading and became it".

What the crispy crunchy Christ is this dreck? You're scumreading Mario for not reading your mind.

Of course, if MM says that effort was a Towntell, then if someone subsequently tries to put in effort and ask to be Townread it ceases to be a Towntell as scum can easily fake anything once they know what they will be Townread for. I think that is what FireScreamer meant.

[BTD6_maker]

Is MarioManiac's reaction genuinely scummy? Is there a scum motivation to handing out a Towntell? The one I can see is that MarioManiac was trying to buddy you, which backfired, hence trying to claim it was just fooling around.

MarioManiac, can you please state what your current genuine read on FireScreamer is, and why?

[BTD6_maker]

As for MarioManiac, I think they are a good vote but I will wait until they give a clear explanation of their real read on you before voting.

UNVOTE:

[BTD6_maker]

Also, FireScreamer and ThinkBig's interactions seem to suggest either a nascent Townbloc or buddying. It is possible that one is scum, but I doubt both are scum. Would two scum start a wagon with no one else on it? It is possible, but unlikely. It appears that ThinkBig agreed with FireScreamer's reads after FireScreamer had given them so I would say that if one is scum ThinkBig is more likely, but at the moment it is likely that this is simply a Townbloc.

[BTD6_maker]

I think the read on Bell is a lot more contingent on a red MM than vice versa. So MM should go first.

I agree with this.

UNVOTE: Belarius
VOTE: MarioManiac4

One reason why I think that ThinkBig is more likely scum than you in this interaction is this. ThinkBig seems to be merely agreeing and willing to vote with you, without giving much reasoning for why they agree that Belisarius's scumread is contingent on MM's. It appears easier for scum to simply agree and vote when they need to wagon rather than try to give their own reasoning.

[BTD6_maker]

Belisarius, what do you think about ThinkBig after his more recent posts on you?

[BTD6_maker]

Asking questions about people's reads to get reasons is my normal play. This is early Day 1 so I do not have very strong opinions/reads yet.

ThinkBig agrees with you, but I am not sure that that is a reason for you to Townread them. Town frequently have wildly differing opinions. However, scum often want to buddy Town and be Townread by agreeing with them, which also helps them to get onto the right wagon. I would be sceptical about the Townread.

The question is now this: How much did ThinkBig contribute to your read? Are they passively agreeing or contributing equally? I will compare them, but I suspect that ThinkBig has been contributing less than you.

[BTD6_maker]

My case against Belisarius

MM got multiple chances for the correct response of "of course I don't townread you for that, you just read what I was townreading and became it".

What the crispy crunchy Christ is this dreck? You're scumreading Mario for not reading your mind.

This is a blatant misrepresentation of FireScreamer's post. I'll quote FireScreamer's post in full:

>MM states they are townreading Radja's effort
>I make a tryhardy attempt to examine the TB read
>I ask to be townread for it
>Initially I get a denial that tryharding is a townread because I "refuted" it
>I tell MM that no I didn't, I refuted the other thing, you by your own logic should still townread tryharding
>MM laughs it off and gives me a townread

MM got multiple chances for the correct response of "of course I don't townread you for that, you just read what I was townreading and became it".

You could say MM's responses are just joking RVS stuff. but the reason they gave for giving the intial two reads in the first place was to get out of RVS.

I'm not sure where Belarius gets his reasoning from, but here is the more important part,

Belarius never follows up with this post nor does he ever vote FireScreamer.

I don't see your reasoning for this. There is a much more plausible reason. It is more likely that Belisarius simply misunderstood what FireScreamer had said and subsequently did not follow it up because they realised what FireScreamer meant so no longer considered it "expecting MM to read your mind".

This is his next post in the game:

UNVOTE:

MM's vote on me makes sense.

VOTE: EchoVision

Fluffing post-RVS does not.

Of course, if MM says that effort was a Towntell, then if someone subsequently tries to put in effort and ask to be Townread it ceases to be a Towntell as scum can easily fake anything once they know what they will be Townread for. I think that is what FireScreamer meant.

*brain explodes*

On a second read, this feels quite opportunistic. Previously he called someone out for a "bad post" and here he votes someone for making a post-RVS fluff post instead.

So far belarius has done little scum hunting and done little to try and solve the game. He appears to be trying to distract us from the FireScreamer/Mario read and derail that conversation.

Pointing out something else is not the same as distracting from the read. I can also understand why a Townie might scumread that post. This is not necessarily scummy.

I have the feeling we are not going to get along in this game. Again. Do you remember how that ended last time?

A bit late, I know, but I don't like this.

I

really

don't like this.

According to your own link, how that ended last time was lynching town. Remembering that should make you cautious, not confident.

I don't see any town motivation in this post, but there's one thing it does accomplish, if it works: Introducing fear, uncertainty, and doubt.

FUD is one of my favourite tactics as scum. FUD won Open 524 for me. (That's my favourite scumgame ever)

This needs lots and lots and lots of rope.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: BananaNSFW

This is a blatant and scummy OMGUS.

I like this wagon. Belarius has done little to try and solve the game, has done no scum hunting and his voting pattern does not make sense from a town POV.

This is not a "blatant and scummy OMGUS". Indeed, Banana was not even voting Belisarius at the time. In fact, Banana's subsequent vote is more of an OMGUS. This is an example of scum hunting and Belisarius trying to solve the game.

Your Belisarius case does hold up to scrutiny. I can see this being either scum or very confbiased. This is currently a weak scumread of mine.

VOTE: ThinkBig

[BTD6_maker]

There is nothing more frustrating as scum as being accused for illogical reasons by an illogical townie. You simply can not use logic to make it go away.

It's scummy because it's an easy push on FS because everyone (i'm 99% sure) agrees his content made no sense. You're pushing on him for that even though you will know this sort of early tunnel is NAI.

It's interesting how you used this particular phrase, which was used by Town to attack Town. Frustration at a lack of logic is not scum indicative in any way. It looks like you are attacking Tenshii for pointing out bad logic, which does not seem to actually be scummy.

all maker has really done now i have layed off their wagon is a scumread on my biggest townread that doesn't really make much sense (which is scum-indicative here because he's not even legitimately tunneling or doing anything else either, just one bad case that lacks emotion)
they're not following up on their questions either

Firstly, lacking emotion is not scummy. I am a type of player who does not display emotion much as either alignment. In order to show that lacking emotion is scummy for someone, you need to first establish that they show more emotion as Town than scum, which in my case is not true as I do not show much emotion in either case.

I do not need to follow up on questions when I get satisfactory answers. I do not need to continue strengthening my scumread with every question if I think that the answers I am getting are Townish, which is why I did not need further questioning to follow up. It would make more sense to then focus on other things which seem suspicious to me.

I do not need to tunnel when there is no reason to. Tunneling is only useful when the responses keep on being scum-indicative, and at the moment it makes sense for me to post about other things I find suspicious.

It's just a quote Toto and Tenshii used in matrix5. I don't agree with it but lolwhynot.

If you don't agree with something, why do you use it as a point in your push?

This overall looks rather suspicious. This is a weak scumread of mine.

[BTD6_maker]

Emotion is probably a bad word for it but I can't think of a better one. It's almost like lacking conviction; like, you don't actually believe in the case you're making. Your post digging up TB's case, trying to refute its logic and voting him for it just looks really fake.

I often analyse a case by pointing out flaws in its logic. I also generally post more formally than most people, which may be seen as artificial. This is entirely natural for me.

I do not have that much confidence in any read at the moment, but it is rather early and I do have conviction at least to some extent, as appropriate to the strength of my read. This is currently a weak read, as I want to avoid strong reads without strong evidence. Strong reads without evidence leads to the strength of the reads being unfounded, which is problematic as it leads to misjudging the probabilities that someone is actually scum.

[BTD6_maker]

BTD6, what's your read on Beli? Do you agree with his case on me?
You seem to recognise he is scumhunting but you don't give any opinions about what he has to say.


Pedit: sure it was. The rude comment was about me not being associated with trying hard

BTD6, please answer this.

I currently read Belisarius as weak Town. His case on you looks like it is from a Townish perspective, in that Town are always trying to be suspicious and aware of scum manipulating them, whereas scum know that the Townies are mostly honest and they are trying to manipulate them instead.

Some scepticism as Town is always good. You do not want to be too confident in your reads, or you will be blinded to the possibility of having to rethink them. Uncertainty and doubt are often good things (too much confidence is bad), but I think that fear isn't, and Belisarius is talking about what happens when fear is mixed with uncertainty and doubt. Rational uncertainty/doubt is "I think this is the case, although I could be wrong and will look for evidence." whereas FUD is more like "I think this is the case, but I could be wrong so I cannot trust anything, not even my own reasoning." with a lot more paranoia. Belisarius clearly has knowledge about this (for example, referencing McClish's methodology) so this looks like it comes from their Town perspective.

That said, while it is Townish, it looks like mistaken Town. You had been referencing a past game and I am not sure exactly how FUD is shown. It is possible you are trying to do this as scum but it is more likely you were just bringing up what happened, in which case it is probably NAI.

[BTD6_maker]

Weak Town: FireScreamer, Belisarius, Tenshii
Nullish: Wisdom, Banana, EchoVision
Weak scum: MarioManiac, ThinkBig

Is anyone willing to start a wagon on MarioManiac? I am not convinced on the Belisarius wagon.

[BTD6_maker]

MarioManiac is a better wagon than ThinkBig, and we are not lynching Belisarius without a counterclaim.

VOTE: MarioManiac

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Belisarius

Mafia are more likely to fakeclaim under intent than they are to counterclaim without much pressure, so this is the best lynch.

[BTD6_maker]

What does red Beli mean. Maker?

MarioManiac seems like the most likely partner if Belisarius flips scum. If Tenshii is JK or Tracker (in Tracker+Doc), though, they may be able to identify the scum and we will have a perfect Town win.

[BTD6_maker]

Wah. Guess MM thought I was coming for them today and decided to come out guns blazing. I wanted maker today.

I pushed at MM early and then pushed Tenshi for tunneling me when others agreed with my logic.

I consolidated onto Beli afterwards. I don't see how any of this is scum behaviour greater than Makers attempt to counterwagon as well as set up on MM on a red Tenshi flip

I'm not sure what you are trying to claim. I was not "trying to set up on MM" after a red Belisarius flip. Instead, I was stating that I personally think MM is more likely to be scum if Belisarius flips scum.

Also, as for counterwagons, the simple Town reason was that Belisarius was one of my Townreads and the wagons I was trying to push (ThinkBig, MarioManiac) were my scumreads. It would be illogical to expect someone to wagon their Townreads.

I just woke up and I am phoneposting. Maker when I made my early push on you agreed with it in thread and pushed me in that direction over Beli but didn't hop on himself. He then tried to build counterwagons to Beli all day before setting up on you when it was clear Beli was flipping

Again, I pushed my scumreads. A Townie is not normally expected to vote their Townreads.

You know. With another tracker entirely hidden it's not terrible play for me to just self hammer and cut the day off now. Yall powerlynch maker tomorrow while the tracker picks up clears elsewhere. Id rather maker today but the fight might not be worth it

This is much closer to actually setting up a mislynch, but I think it comes from a more Town perspective. You are probably Town here because if you do indeed follow through with your plan, you lose instantly if scum. If you are Town, you do not lose instantly and you leave Town with what you think will win for them. While this reads Town, it's bad Town. You seem very confbiased. If you are Town and we follow your plans, we will end up in LyLo. As for the UB, there are 6 Townies alive today (one of which is presumably the UB) and there will be 2 at LyLo so there is a 2/3 chance the UB is already dead by then. This is not a good plan for Town.

That said, MarioManiac is more likely scum than FireScreamer at this point. Out of MarioManiac and ThinkBig, this is now my stronger scumread.

VOTE: MarioManiac

[BTD6_maker]

I am a Vanilla Townie.

If I am lynched, I strongly suspect MarioManiac. If they are Town, ThinkBig is the next best lynch.

There is no reason to hammer me. This wagon is based solely on a flimsy case by FireScreamer. If people on the wagon rethink why they are voting me, this will become apparent.

VOTE: FireScreamer

I Townread this, but at this stage it is better for me to lynch someone I think is Town as opposed to someone I know is Town. This is the only alternative, it seems, as you seem unwilling to push EchoVision to a claim. FireScreamer is VT, so that is a better alternative than this.