[SETUP] Hollywood Mafia

[mhsmith0]

I kinda feel like anything at 45% or above EV through random lynching is townsided, unless you just think that towns are totally hopeless.

[mhsmith0]

Win-lose records suggest towns do worse than random in general.

Is that actually true? Like pure random lynching gives atrocious town win records; I guess the question is how towns do compared to random lynching given the power assigned to them, which I don't know the actual answer for.

[mhsmith0]

D1 stats are close to random lynching, but subsequent days are very much not

Lynched 7:2 7:1 6:2 6:1 5:2 5:1 4:2 4:1 3:2 3:1 2:1
Town 317 14 41 38 171 32 25 57 100 33 62
Scum 78 11 28 26 84 22 23 47 61 24 47
No Lynch 6 0 4 0 5 1 22 1 3 10 2
Total 401 25 73 64 260 55 70 105 164 67 111
Town 79.1% 56.0% 56.2% 59.4% 65.8% 58.2% 35.7% 54.3% 61.0% 49.3% 55.9%
Scum 19.5% 44.0% 38.4% 40.6% 32.3% 40.0% 32.9% 44.8% 37.2% 35.8% 42.3%
No Lynch 1.5% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 1.9% 1.8% 31.4% 1.0% 1.8% 14.9% 1.8%


Towns are a bit worse than average in 3:2 LYLO, but that shouldn't be too surprising since you're down to the subset of games where town is getting rolled anyway. In basically every other one they're above average on lynch accuracy (note that 4:2 town's accuracy is about 50% once you remove the no lynches). Town is >rand in 3:1 (~40 excluding no lynches instead of 25%), 2:1 (42% instead of 33%, though lolol that there's ever a no lynch in 2:1 LYLO), etc.

Day 1 lynch accuracy is generally difficult and not especially strong as a sign of competence. Where I question later days, though, is how much town's accuracy rate is fluffed up by the presence of PRs; I kinda suspect that things get close to rand once you back out influence of PRs, though obviously that's really hard to do.