[SETUP] Hollywood Mafia

Toto · Post Post #21 (isolation #0) » Fri May 19, 2017 7:01 am

In post 14, Umlaut wrote:Otherwise, shoot a random town player.

This is non-optimal. Scum should shoot the group with largest town to scum ratio in most cases.

According to a mix-max strategy if both team play optimally then EV is 27%, if my code is right.

Here are the suggested actions in non-trivial mixed living players cases (if all remaining players are either Vanilla or Celeb, then it is a standard game mechanic):

Spoiler: actions

Toto · Post Post #23 (isolation #1) » Fri May 19, 2017 7:12 am

In post 22, mhsmith0 wrote:
In post 19, Umlaut wrote:Win-lose records suggest towns do worse than random in general.
Is that actually true? Like pure random lynching gives atrocious town win records; I guess the question is how towns do compared to random lynching given the power assigned to them, which I don't know the actual answer for.

Newbies D1 stats are pretty close to random lynching. However, this is bad considering there are PRs that should never be lynched.

Toto · Post Post #24 (isolation #2) » Fri May 19, 2017 7:16 am

In post 23, Toto wrote:
In post 22, mhsmith0 wrote:
In post 19, Umlaut wrote:Win-lose records suggest towns do worse than random in general.
Is that actually true? Like pure random lynching gives atrocious town win records; I guess the question is how towns do compared to random lynching given the power assigned to them, which I don't know the actual answer for.
Newbies D1 stats are pretty close to random lynching. However, this is bad considering there are PRs that should never be lynched.

I have a theory that towns are worse than average before the first scum flip, but better afterwards.

Toto · Post Post #26 (isolation #3) » Fri May 19, 2017 7:29 am

You have to consider presence the PR power comes from the info from night actions, and also the fact they are a named townie. So a 3:2 with a named PR, should actually have higher chance of winning than 3:2 vanilla, even if the PR has no info.

Like I said, 7:2 odds on D1 is bad given you have PRs that should never be lynched on D1, it should be closer to 6:2.

Toto · Post Post #27 (isolation #4) » Fri May 19, 2017 8:02 am

In post 21, Toto wrote:According to a mix-max strategy if both team play optimally then EV is 27%, if my code is right.

@OP If you make the celebs 3:2 and 7:1 for vt:goons then EV goes up to 44.6%