In post 914, Javajoe24 wrote: In post 911, Javajoe24 wrote:possible scum teams calculated by having no more than 1 person bussing a scum:
A50, Chicka, GL
A50, Chicka, SS
A50, Chicka, Creature
A50, Chicka, Javajoe
Chicka, GL, SS
Chicka, GL, Javajoe
Chicka, SS, Creature,
A50, GL, Javajoe
Chicka -7/8
A50 - 5/8
GL- 4/8
Javajoe - 3/8
SS - 3/8
Creature - 2/8
I may have missed a pairing, but that was all I could find where only one scum was bussed by a partner, let me know if I missed one and I will add it. I think this clearly shows that Chicka is the correct lynch today.
Wow, I was more groggy than I thought, I missed one that includes massive. Although if massive is scum, based on my hypothesis this would be the only possible scum team.
Other possible team:
Massive, SS, creature
This puts the total at
Chicka - 7/9
A50 - 5/9
GL - 4/9
SS - 4/9
Javajoe - 3/9
Creature - 3/9
Massive - 1/9
Which means chicka is still the best option for a lynch today.
Now, let's say we BOTH flip SCUM (me & Chicka). He has GL, SS & creature all lined up for lynch.
But -of course- he would be conf!Town in that case, and besides I know my own alignment, so not applicable.
Let's say I flip scum (again, I know it's not the case) and she flips Town.
According to his own analysis
, the ONLY team I cam be scum NOT with her is with HIM and GL.
Now let's consider the case where I'm Town and she is Scum. Again, GL, SS & creature are lynch candidates.
Finally, me & Chicka are TOWN. Whoops! Sorry. It must be massive, SS, creature then.
Notice in that case that he opts to CLEAR HIMSELF after we both flip green?? He also clears YOU (GL) on that basis. BRILLIANT. I guess that's why he went back to add that last team formation, as he realized his initial liat would have made him look ridiculous if he pushed us both and we both flipped Town, which he KNOWS to be the case.
So, I will counter Jj's move. I don't think this is going to be the best move, but -at least- it's better than his BS. Flip me, but do NOT vig Chicka. Force him to kill her himself. Don't give Scum a free kill (and easy win).
Agree?