Mini 1906 - It's An Owners Market Blitz (Game Over)

[Socrates]

Shit, just as I'm about to go to bed.

I will have much to say after some sleep, but know now that I wanna be Guvna.

[Socrates]

VOTE: Socrates

It's not like we didn't know when the game was starting/have time to collect our thoughts beforehand.

?

I think you misunderstand. I was literally signing off for the night when I saw the game-start PM. It's not that I didn't have thoughts, it's that I wasn't going spend an hour drafting up a post instead of sleeping, so I popped in merely to announce my intention of getting myself elected governor and went to bed.

--

Okay, first of all, the structure of this game heavily dis-incentivizes the mafia from bussing each other because losing a member means losing a third of their purchasing power. At the same time, if it looks like a member of the mafia is going down, they will have no reason not to dump all of their cash at the last minute to steal as many powers as possible.

At the same time, any town-mislynch is not only fundamentally money wasted, but their bids will still count for that day and if they win, the role is lost. This means that optimal play for the scumteam is to try to nudge mislynches in the direction of people who they think are going to win an auction.

Further, if I understand the rules correctly, with 4 roles per day for 4 days drawn from the pool of 20, almost all of the roles are going to come up for auction eventually, so the purpose of the Market Owner is more to guide the

order

that roles will appear than anything else. This actually isn't as important as I initially thought it was, and I didn't realize that it was an optional function. In that context, I don't expect the mafia to make a strong push to get their hands on the position. It's mostly just as good for them to let the role fall by the wayside than anything else.

There's certainly more nuance to consider here by factoring how the dwindling player count will affect the flow of cash, but I haven't full hashed that out in my brain yet.

I personally still want to be Market Owner, but I'm already getting sick of talking mechanics and I want to get to scumhunting, so I'm going to backburner that for now.

[Socrates]

I know I'm paying $500 for dayvig and shooting whoever looks at me wrong. Fair warning to you all.

I'm only half kidding.

If dayvig comes up, the scumteam gets it. End of story.

[Socrates]

Gamma, who is scum?

[Socrates]

UNVOTE: Gamma it seems RVS is over

Look at this baby bird. So cute. Newbie-town tell.

[Socrates]

VOTE: Vecna

Elect no one

Was going to say what Albert said I'm gonna be thinking over a few other ways I want to handle this because on first glance this seems scumsided.

vote: gamma emerald

elena is probably town, don't see scum going out of their way to elect no one as mayor

infinity feels town too

Do you still feel the same about Elena after I gave my take on the mayor position?

[Socrates]

I know I'm paying $500 for dayvig and shooting whoever looks at me wrong. Fair warning to you all.

I'm only half kidding.

If dayvig comes up, the scumteam gets it. End of story.

Is this a prediction or a command?

A statement of fact.

[Socrates]

Tywin is town.

[Socrates]

i thought i didnt recieve a role pm and the game started, but i just overlooked it lol

I have never seen this kind of statement turn out to be a lie. NAI in truth, because scum can miss PM's just as easily as town, but if he is scum, his buddies are probably annoyed at him.

[Socrates]

I know I'm paying $500 for dayvig and shooting whoever looks at me wrong. Fair warning to you all.

I'm only half kidding.

If dayvig comes up, the scumteam gets it. End of story.

Is this a prediction or a command?

A statement of fact.

That's closer to the first one. Okay.

Now you respond to my question.

[Socrates]

Kinda suspect ABR and Elena at this point

Why?

[Socrates]

Btw, seeing how likely it is that scum could use their influence to push one of their own as auction-master guy.....

We should probably publicly agree that were policying the slot like day3 / day4 if we lynch scum in the first 2 days.

Just as a nice wifom-measure to make scum think twice about being sneaky to try and elect their own.

You call the speculation redundant, then proceed to speculate in the most neutral way possible, and then suggest a mid-game policy lynch? And no reads.

VOTE: Vecna

[Socrates]

ABR's plan can easily be subverted by scum, especially since none of the abilities up for this day are of much use to them. I think there's a chance he could be setting up town to spend a lot on all the weaker powers so the scum can scoop up the stronger ones.
I'm not a fan of Elena electing No One. It feels like an empty stance to take.

I want to see Albert's response to this.

[Socrates]

I think ABR was genuinely coming up with a strat (trying to).

What makes it sound genuine?

[Socrates]

Def not liking Gamma's iso.

I do think Socrates is trying a bit too hard to become marketplace owner,

I literally said I was putting the topic on the backburner?

[Socrates]

Albert, real quick, do you understand that these powers are all one-shot?

[Socrates]

That's what I meant. Any half-competent scumteam looks at a one-shot tracker and laughs. Commuter is only worthwhile in the hands of someone whom the scumteam might plausibly NK someday, and they still need to get lucky with it since the scumteam will know it's out there. Anyone else and it can only interfere with investigative roles. Neighborizor? Ha! Jailkeeper is the only role that I think the scumteam would give a shit about, since it can foil them in two different ways and they have a possible use for it themselves.

The scumteam is not going to invest a meaningful sum into any of these roles. They are going to do what Prism said: low-ball all of them to force

the town

to waste their money.

My initial instinct was that the scumteam would want to try to get their mislynch target to win an auction, but as I'm watching you post and looking at what our actual options are and I think a stronger strategy for them would be to convince the strongest players to waste their money up front, mislynch someone with full cash, simply dodge these weak-ass roles for one night, and continue NKing players with money.

A certain someone should have already gone all in on commuter if they are town, and we shouldn't fish make sure they did.

My dream scenario is that someone ELSE buys jailkeeper, I get elected Mayor and draw both the nightkill and and the jailkeep*.

I also strongly dislike you trying to push people into both bidding early and directly asking everyone if they have bid before the mid-day update. This furthers this scum-strat that I am just not contemplating, because it would give you a strong idea of who is going after what roles as scum, and thus gauge who will still have cash at the end of the day.

FURTHER, go back to our last game together and look at Zefeind's opening post, compare it to Vectna and tell WHY THE FUCK you aren't voting stringing him up and instead going after a player who was wary of your strategy?

[Socrates]

That's what I meant. Any half-competent scumteam looks at a one-shot tracker and laughs. Commuter is only worthwhile in the hands of someone whom the scumteam might plausibly NK someday, and they still need to get lucky with it since the scumteam will know it's out there. Anyone else and it can only interfere with investigative roles. Neighborizor? Ha! Jailkeeper is the only role that I think the scumteam would give a shit about, since it can foil them in two different ways and they have a possible use for it themselves.

The scumteam is not going to invest a meaningful sum into any of these roles. They are going to do what Prism said: low-ball all of them to force

the town

to waste their money.

My initial instinct was that the scumteam would want to try to get their mislynch target to win an auction, but as I'm watching you post and looking at what our actual options are and I think a stronger strategy for them would be to convince the strongest players to waste their money up front, mislynch someone with full cash, simply dodge these weak-ass roles for one night, and continue NKing players with money.

A certain someone should have already gone all in on commuter if they are town, and we shouldn't fish make sure they did.

My dream scenario is that someone ELSE buys jailkeeper, I get elected Mayor and draw both the nightkill and and the jailkeep*.

I also strongly dislike you trying to push people into both bidding early and directly asking everyone if they have bid before the mid-day update. This furthers this scum-strat that I am just not contemplating, because it would give you a strong idea of who is going after what roles as scum, and thus gauge who will still have cash at the end of the day.

FURTHER, go back to our last game together and look at Zefeind's opening post, compare it to Vectna and tell WHY THE FUCK you aren't voting stringing him up and instead going after a player who was wary of your strategy?

I completely disagree with your analysis from top to bottom.

Of course you do. It would weird if you didn't.

But Vecna? Seriously what the fuck Albert.

[Socrates]

I HAAAAATE this wagon on Gamma.

[Socrates]

Desperado, Tywin, you guys were in our last game too. You guys should know exactly why Vecna's actions are scummy and why it is INSANE that Albert would townread him for it.

[Socrates]

DBZ:A Mafia.

Zefeind's first substansive post, made multiple pages into the game:

Balls are already serving as a distraction since people are making illogical statements. HUGE math wall ahead:

Spoiler:

Assuming 3 scum: We know there are 7 balls.

I. ai) Assuming scum started with 1 ball, we mislynch a ball-less person today, all townies pass any balls in their possession to a target at random, and scum hold their ball:
Probability that all balls end up with a townie: 0
Probability that all balls end up with the scumteam: (3/11)^6 = 4.1%
Probability that scumteam gains at least 1 ball: 1-(8/11)^6 = 85.2%
--Scum still get a NK. If each player is holding, on average, (6/12) = .5 balls after balls have been passed, then scum control 1+(3*.5) = 2.5 balls and will gain an average of .5 balls on kill. This means that

after a night of passing randomly

, scum will control, on average, 3 balls.

aii) Assuming scum started with 1 ball, we mislynch a ball-less person today,

no

townies pass any balls, and scum hold their ball:
Probability that all balls end up with a townie: 0
Probability that all balls end up with the scumteam: 0
Probability that scumteam gains at least 1 ball: 0
--Scum still get a NK. Let's assume that the remainder 6 balls were distributed randomly among all townies, so each townie is holding, on average (6/9) =.666 balls. Scum gain an average of .666 balls on kill. This means that

after a night of not passing

, scum will control, on average, 1.666 balls.

bi) Assuming scum started with 1 ball, we mislynch a person with 1 ball today, all townies pass any balls in their possession to a target at random, and scum hold their ball:
First, the probability that scum gained the lynched person's ball, if the hammerer is random, is (3/12) = 25%.
Probability that all balls end up with a townie: 0
Probability that all balls end up with the scumteam: (.75)(3/11)^6 + (.25)(3/11)^5 = 6.9%
Probability that scumteam gains at least 1 ball (from passing): (.75)(1-(8/11)^6) + (.25)(1-(8/11)^5) = 83.8%
--Scum still get a NK. If each player is holding, on average, (.75)(6/12) + (.25)(5/12) = .48 balls after balls have been passed, then scum control (.75)(1+3*.48)+(.25)(2+3*.48) = 2.69 balls and will gain an average of .48 balls on kill. This means that

after a night of passing randomly

, scum will control, on average, 3.17 balls.

bii) Assuming scum started with 1 ball, we mislynch a person with 1 ball today,

no

townies pass any balls, and scum hold their ball:
Probability that all balls end up with a townie: 0
Probability that all balls end up with the scumteam: 0
Probability that scumteam gains at least 1 ball (from hammering): (3/12) = 25%
--Scum still get a NK. Let's assume that the remainder 5 balls were distributed randomly among all townies, so each townie is holding, on average (5/9) =.555 balls. Scum gain an average of .555 balls on kill. This means that

after a night of not passing

, scum will control, on average, (.25)(2+.555) + (.75)(1+.555) = 1.805 balls.

II. ai) Assuming scum started with 1 ball, we lynch a ball-less mafioso today, all townies pass any balls in their possession to a target at random, and scum hold their ball:
Probability that all balls end up with a townie: 0
Probability that all balls end up with the scumteam: (2/11)^6 = 0.04%
Probability that scumteam gains at least 1 ball: 1-(9/11)^6 = 70%
--Scum still get a NK. If each player is holding, on average, (6/12) = .5 balls after balls have been passed, then scum control 1+(2*.5) = 2 balls and will gain an average of .5 balls on kill. This means that

after a night of passing randomly

, scum will control, on average, 2.5 balls.

aii) Assuming scum started with 1 ball, we lynch a ball-less mafioso today,

no

townies pass any balls, and scum hold their ball:
Probability that all balls end up with a townie: 0
Probability that all balls end up with the scumteam: 0
Probability that scumteam gains at least 1 ball: 0
--Scum still get a NK. Let's assume that the remainder 6 balls were distributed randomly among all townies, so each townie is holding, on average (6/10) =.6 balls. Scum gain an average of .6 balls on kill. This means that

after a night of not passing

, scum will control, on average, 1.6 balls.

bi) Assuming scum started with 1 ball, we lynch a mafioso with 1 ball today, and all townies pass any balls in their possession to a target at random:
First, the probability that scum gained the lynched person's ball, if the hammerer is random, is (2/12) = 16.7%. If this happens, scum obviously won't pass their ball.
Probability that all balls end up with a townie: (.833)(1/11)^7 = .000004%
Probability that all balls end up with the scumteam: (.833)(2/11)^7 + (.167)(2/11)^6 = .001%
Probability that scumteam gains at least 1 ball (from passing): (.833)(1-(9/11)^7) + (.167)(1-(9/11)^6) = 74.5%
--Scum still get a NK. If each player is holding, on average, (.75)(7/12) + (.25)(6/12) = .5625 balls after balls have been passed, then scum control (.833)(2*.5625)+(.167)(1+2*.5625) = 1.292 balls and will gain an average of .5625 balls on kill. This means that

after a night of passing randomly

, scum will control, on average, 1.85 balls.

bii) Assuming scum started with 1 ball, we lynch a mafioso with 1 ball today, and

no

townies pass any balls:
Probability that all balls end up with a townie: 0
Probability that all balls end up with the scumteam: 0
Probability that scumteam gains at least 1 ball (from hammering): (2/12) = 16.7%
--Scum still get a NK. Let's assume that the remainder 6 balls were distributed randomly among all townies, so each townie is holding, on average (6/10) =.6 balls. Scum gain an average of .6 balls on kill. This means that

after a night of not passing

, scum will control, on average, (.167)(1+.6) + (.833)(.6) = .767 balls.

**Assertion: If scum started with more than 1 ball, they would immediately distribute their balls in order to avoid losing their cache to a lynch.
--In all scenarios under I], the probability that all balls end up with a townie is always 0, while the probabilities of scum gaining at least one additional ball after hammering and/or passing are decreasingly proportional with the probabilities calculated.
--In all scenarios under II], the probability that all balls end up with a townie is now always 0, while the probabilities of scum gaining at least one additional ball after hammering and/or passing are proportional with probabilities calculated under I]

Therefore,

optimal strategy

dictates that we should play

defense

, by only passing at Night if we have more than 1 ball, and not passing in all other circumstances.

This does not account for unknown mechanics, of course.

Calls the game mechanic a distraction, proceeds to waste a giant wall post on said distraction, gives no reads.

He was scum.

[Socrates]

DBZ:A Mafia

[Socrates]

Desperado, Tywin, you guys were in our last game too. You guys should know exactly why Vecna's actions are scummy and why it is INSANE that Albert would townread him for it.

dbz = remote chance of assembling all the balls
here = mechanics with real consequences

Suck it!

And a shallow, empty analysis of the mechanics when they actually do matter is BETTER? All he did was sort the good roles from the bad roles and gave them fancy colors. Don't even try and tell me you got anything worthwhile out of that color coding shit, because you would be lying.

[Socrates]

Zefeind isn't Vecna so I don't see why you're so worked up over that.

Scum behavior isn't applicable from game to game at all?

[Socrates]

Btw, seeing how likely it is that scum could use their influence to push one of their own as auction-master guy.....

We should probably publicly agree that were policying the slot like day3 / day4 if we lynch scum in the first 2 days.

Just as a nice wifom-measure to make scum think twice about being sneaky to try and elect their own.

You call the speculation redundant, then proceed to speculate in the most neutral way possible, and then suggest a mid-game policy lynch? And no reads.

VOTE: Vecna

I meant the speculation on what price to bid below 300 is redundant - which it is.

If you wanna vote me for not having reads on page4, be my guest.

As for your comment about neutrality, I feel the same about all your posts before this point. You cannot be that bland in your observations, and then accuse someone else of it. Its just not morally correct. I am a bundle of positivity.

Also your statement that scum wont make a push for auction-master does not mesh at all with your other statement that -if- the vig comes up the scum gets it (which is correct). So youre saying scum will not try to get usefull abilities this game? And just allow town to only put forward pro-town stuff?

Anyways, youre boring.

Sorry that you find me so mundane.

Also sorry that you think bragging about not having reads and not putting forth active effort to engage with others and extract thoughts from them in order to change that makes you look town.

[Socrates]

You just sit there and look pretty, Vecna. It seems to be working.

[Socrates]

Sorry Tywin, I've been neglecting this game because I made the cardinal mistake of signing up for too many games and you should be able to know offhand why one game in particular is draining my will to live.

[Socrates]

I'm here. I've only skimmed. I'm willing to move my vote.

Tywin, I am confident in my townread on you. Who should I vote?

[Socrates]

VOTE: wood

[Socrates]

Okay, this is getting dumb.

I came in at the end of the day, deadline approaching,admitted that I had been neglecting this game and stated that I was going to sheep Tywin. Gerry said to vote either Gamma or Oak, which I THOUGHT he meant that was the two competing wagons at that moment. I remembered that I hated the Gamma wagon, scrolled up the page and saw that Tywin agreed with this and was considering Oak, so I put my vote there in case Tywin never showed up to talk to me.

It turns this wasn't the case and I accidentally catalyzed a last-minute deluge onto a mislynch.

That's what happened.

Gamma, I said I hated your wagon.
YOU noted this. YOU approached me about it. YOU asked me to counter wagon on your behalf.

You got what you wanted, and you scumread me for it?

What the flying fuck, Gamma?

[Socrates]

VOTE: Socrates. Wow I had vibes in the beginning. TRUST your gut.

What the fuck is this?

[Socrates]

thanks, so basically strongman. what lame roles

VOTE: socrates

Why are you voting me instead of Gamma, your supposed absolute top scumpick of the year?

[Socrates]

Tywin, talk to me. Lets try not to get into the usual pissing match. Talk to me.

Why am do you scumread me?

[Socrates]

Tywin.

[Socrates]

Wait, did prism hammer me? I've lost track of the votes.

[Socrates]

Socrates bothers me. I don't like his implication that something someone else in another game did applies cross-contextually to Vecna. I understand that mechanical posts aren't a towntell, but the way you (Socrates) were pushing it as a broader reason to discredit Vecna bothers me. In particular, lines like "You sit there and look pretty, Vecna" seem a lot like you're more concerned with him getting governor, and not you, than a true scumread. It was like you were running a campaign and barely cared what Vecna actually was.

What are you talking about? That was specfically following up on what I just said about how him proudly and condescendingly proclaiming that he basically wasn't going to scumhunt, and people seemed to be townreading him for it! How can I not look at that and be peeved? Where do you even pull the idea of it having anything to do with the mayoral race other than voting to make him mayor is an implicit town-read?

Socrates's vote in #446 was also terrible. He asked Tywin, his top townread, who to vote. Gerry, who as far as Ctrl+F can tell Socrates never gave a read on or said a word about alignment wise, suggests he vote Wood and Socrates immediately does so, 5 minutes later, without thinking. You're looking for Tywin, he doesn't answer, and in 20 minutes you just take what the first person gave you. To top it off, here's all he said about Wood, #95.

Yeah, you'll notice that I have said little about ANYONE besides Vecna and my back and forth with Albert about him. That's because I

haven't been participating in the game

. You can't waggle your finger at me about not talking about particular people when I haven't even BEEN HERE.

[Socrates]

Gamma, Momo, Gerry, Tywin, Coyote, Prism.

That's six.

I've been hammered. Great. Way to go. Don't bother waiting for me to respond or ask for a prod or even wait for the mid-day update or anything like that.

[Socrates]

Oh, Gerry seems to be right. I just re-read the rules. If I understand it correctly, day goes until deadline no matter what until day 5. I'm still alive.

[Socrates]

Socrates who are your SRs?

Sorry, I closed the page in a huff after I thought I was hammered. I should have done this.

I should it anyway, I guess.

Momo's vote on me stinks to hell and back, and they did nothing yesterday but flip-flop on me for frankly awkward reasons. I find myself wondering if it was an attempt to buddy me.

Red Coyote's vote on me is a 'me too' vote with little substance. I need to iso them.

I am now going to be looking at Prism under a microscope because I wonder it she tried to 'accidentally' quickhammer me before the town could bid on roles.

[Socrates]

Also, Gamma's vote on me is bananas.

[Socrates]

Albert, who do you actually scumread right now?

[Socrates]

Respond to my earlier statement at you.

[Socrates]

Would you have preferred I voted you? Because that's what I thought the situation was.

[Socrates]

I fully cop to misunderstanding to situation. Now, are you going to call me a liar about that, or are you going to try to argue that my choice made no sense given my stated perspective?

Pick one.

[Socrates]

Little sense? So you're saying my minor newb-town-tell should have superseded my instinct that you were low-hanging fruit? Especially when I hadn't been following the rest of the thread and wasn't clear on what he had done since? Especially when I noticed that the player who's input I was looking for had said previously that they felt similar about you?

So ARE you telling me that I should have voted you Gamma? IS that what you are saying?

[Socrates]

Not just my read, but the read of another.

[Socrates]

Now are you going to unvote me or not?

Who is scum other than me, Gamma?

[Socrates]

Now are you going to unvote me or not?

Who is scum

other than

me, Gamma?

Pardon?

Do you think you're being clever, Gamma? Because you're just being tedious. You know what I meant.

[Socrates]

I'm curious why you said other than, while also asking if I would unvote.

Because you're argument holds no water, and you have shown you have no interest in actually reading me and are just fumbling to justify keeping your awful vote on me.

VOTE: gamma

[Socrates]

Tywin, do you really think it is implausible that I really thought I was dead? It's the natural assumption! It doesn't even have to be alignment indicative! Why do you jump straight to scum theatre? And with Albert specifically? Not with, say, Gerry, or Prism? I think I know why. Do you want me to give you a hint?

[Socrates]

As someone who ignores questions as scum, it is definitely a scum tell.

Justify your vote on me.

[Socrates]

VOTE: Socrates

I don't know what I'm doing

UNVOTE:

No we have to wait for Mid Day update. Don't lynch anyone yet.

What ARE you doing?

If I was feeling crazy, I look at this and start to wonder if you are trying to indirectly manipulate Tywin, here.

[Socrates]

Gamma dropped the argument and moved elsewhere the second I actually put my foot down.

[Socrates]

I can't bring myself to give a shit about this game at this point.

Tywin has fallen into his Tunnel of No Return, and at least two of his co-wagoners are scum and are just going to happily sit there on the backs of the mistakes I've made this game. Albert's passiveness is making me feel paranoid.

Momo needs to die.

VOTE: Momo

[Socrates]

Dismissing Momo as a null-lurker is reductive as fuck. He's clearly reading the game, but his posts are contentless and he's just letting his vote passively sit on me because he should have 'trusted his gut'.

I found Gamma's attempt to 'interrogate' me tedious and weak, but at least he did it and maybe he's just not good at those things. I'll self-preserve vote him come deadline if I have to, but I want Momo dead.

[Socrates]

What reads has Momo given day two other than me? Hint: the answer is none.

As for RC, he's my other bet for lazy scum on my wagon, but his last catch-up gives me mixed feelings. He's the one who made the point that Gamma might genuinely have been trying to sort me, but then poo-poo's gamma choosing to move on, which might be scum frustrated at my wagon dissolving. Though if that observation is right, then Gamma is an unlikely partner to him.

Trying to frame my name confusion as deliberate and scummy, instead of realizing that I was the one confusing names feels like an excuse.

His statements that he thinks people are going to break for Gamma over me makes me feel weird.

I'd wagon him too.

[Socrates]

I didnt even look at the vote count when I voted Momo, but, if you would step out of your Gamma tunnel for a moment, why should I feel weird about Gamma being there instead of on me?

[Socrates]

Hey guys, what's up? Oh you're lynching Tywin based off of statistical probability? Cool, cool. What should we do for the next 48 hours? Talk about the weather?

More seriously, scum!Tywin would have to feel pretty desperate about his survivability to deliberately create such a menu, and I'm not sure he had much reason to feel that way, but maybe I only think that way because I figured people were just going to dogpile on me again. If I was scum in his position, I would have only prioritized daykiller and then picked the three most powerful pro-town roles to make it look good. My intuition is that regardless of Tywin's alignment, this is a statistical outlier here. What I would want to do, if I had infinite time and wasn't 5+ years out from taking Stats class, is calculate the probability of this happening under the scenario I just described, and then compare THAT value to the previously mentioned 2% figure, and then the ratio between the two would be the Actual probability of Tywin being scum.

It would probably still heavily favor a scum!Tywin, but not to the extent that people are claiming.

Show of hands here, who was actually scum-reading Tywin before this happened?

[Socrates]

And did you guys calculate the probability of this exact grouping, or the probability of Tywin not getting any of the role ps he bet on. This is a crucial distinction!

[Socrates]

Also I need to double check if the Market Owner MUST pick 4 roles, or if they can pick fewer.

[Socrates]

It was weird how he talking talking about scum being saved by a counter wagon, yet was saying Gamma was obvtown, despite being saved by a last minute counter wagon. A wagon that I caused. And I was his top scumread.

[Socrates]

Oh, and for the record, Momo should basically be treated as a mod-confirmed innocent child, because not only did he flip onto mafia from an easily justifiable mislynch completely out of nowhere, he did it in the ten minute interval between bids closing and the day ending, a touch so brilliant I refuse to believe it was intentional.

[Socrates]

Albert claiming ownership of hitman would,be super dangerous for him to do as scum unless the scumteam got both doctor roles as well, (Gamma did claim to have the JK, I suppose), because now he can't successfully use it to strong arm a protected target without outing himself as scum.

[Socrates]

Outside of Lylo, I suppose.

[Socrates]

What more is there to say? I already said that even if I did the calculations I wanted to do, I would expect it to still heavily favor scum!tywin.

I haven't thrown down a vote because why bother?

[Socrates]

Okay, yeah.

All for one and one for all and all that business!

VOTE: Tywin

[Socrates]

If we spend 500 on godfather AND 500 on cop, we can get a doc to claim.

Then doc protects cop, and we confirmed 3 townies just like that.

Reason: scum don't have 500 left to spend. They spent 501 and 303 on daykill and ninja yesterday.

Those who spend 500 are automatically conftown.

You know I'm always down for this kind of plan.

Unfortunately, I don't have 500 to spend. Do we still have two players left with 500? Anyone that does should claim so immediately.

[Socrates]

Prodded.

Sorry about my absence, I should have announced V/LA, but I always forget to do that kind of thing.

I have Doc X 1. I haven't used it yet. I was sitting on it to use at the last minute, but claiming ownership makes it useless. I thought about trying to hide it, but with everyone else having claimed, scum can just use process of elimination to guess what I have.

I think Albert is town. I already talked about him claiming hitman, and I think he was really trying to get people to participate at day start.
Infinity is pretty obvious town.
Prism's vote bounce on me is weird, but in effect all it accomplished was make Gamma a slightly more likely lynch than me, which doesn't make sense for scum to do.
If Desperado can prove his funds, he is more likely town, but we have to see that.

Counting myself as town (obviously), that leaves RC and Oversoul, (assuming Desperado does prove his claim, otherwise I would pick him over Oversoul).

Either way, I have trouble seeing a scenario where RC is town, just through my reads on other players.

[Socrates]

Socrates, What have you put your money on?

I'll be dumping the last of my money on godfather.

[Socrates]

My play this game was pretty poor, but a lot of that genuinely had to do with my focus being split across too many games. There's also cross-game contamination that one has to consider, and that always makes me anxious when I'm playing scum.

I think what happened with Tywin really demoralized the town, and we pretty much won the moment it happened.

The funny thing is, as I alluded to when i voted him, Tywin's arguments about scum protecting scum day 1 were spot on, he just failed to apply it to the right person. Me derailing the Gamma wagon should have pointed at Gamma to him, not away.

My claim wouldn't have held up if I had to prove my funds, but at that point we were past the mid-day update and we could have just obscured the Godfather bid. This is easier than trying to explain why I wouldn't have protected night 3 with a Doc x 2 claim, which if we had planned better we could have said Prism saw me target Infinity. The game was over either way at that point, so all I needed was something to last for the day.

About the setup, best play for scum is to ignore the pro-scum items and just go for the best town items (aside from daykill), because that kills two birds with one stone. We keep the investigations out of town hands (thus not even needing the pro-scum counters), and have the freedom to fake investigations. Incongruities with funds are difficult to parse due to missing information from the dead, so making the numbers add up isn't that hard.

And, as I more or less told the town day 1: We bought the one role that had much utility, and then let the town overspend on the rest. In fact, not only did the tracker turn out to not be a problem, he actually identified the Doc X 2 for us, which is what helped us seal the game.

[Socrates]

Oh, and my reaction to being 'hammered' wasn't fake. But Prism was the only one to note that I did what scum do when hammered: Shut up and walk away.