Micro 714: Vengeful Mafia Modified #4 [Game Over]

[Something_Smart]

Guys I have a foolproof strategy. Let's all name the people we're willing to lynch.
Then mafia won't name their partner and we can catch them!
I'll go first:

Transcend
BTD6_maker
Draynth
Hiraki

[Something_Smart]

Transcend why selfvote?

[Something_Smart]

talk to me about why you think L-1 is a bad thing in this particular setup?

any quickhammer is a scumclaim and the lynched person will just shoot them.

but that is a better scenario for scum then getting lynched. so I feel like scum may take the opportunity to do this.

IMO this setup is townsided because of how much pressure scum are under day 1 and I don't want a super short day 1.

[Something_Smart]

If I were scum and given the chance I probably would have tbh.

[Something_Smart]

Because it turns a 50% town EV into 33%. That's huge.

[Something_Smart]

how do you TR Something??? draynath i get but something???

*ping*

[Something_Smart]

BTD6/Hiraki because

king doggo is always right

you are obvtown, Hiraki pings me and BTD6 is awkward as hell.

[Something_Smart]

Hiraki pings me

what do you mean by that?

I didn't like how he was discrediting Transcend's townread on me.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: ss

From reading what has happened, something seems to be at least a bit suspicious. Transcend's naked vote on SS, which was L-1, seems to be essentially a White Flag Gambit. Such a gambit can easily be performed by scum, as

at that stage Transcend could easily be Townread and there would be very little chance of the lynch actually going through

Mind explaining the bolded part? It was his first post, how would he be townread?

It's the principle behind the White Flag Gambit. Basically, if everyone knows that if scum is lynched scum will lose instantly (for example here), they may be inclined to regard a scum pair as unlikely if one of them puts the other to L-1. This is because it would be very risky for scum to do this, allowing a hammer which ends the game. The White Flag Gambit is basically doing just that so that Town thinks the pair is unlikely. While it is risky, here Transcend did it when there was very little chance of it failing and actually getting SS lynched, so it seems that he tried to use the White Flag Gambit and minimise the risk at the same time, which ultimately makes it less effective.

VOTE: Transcend

Food for thought: I wonder if BTD6 would accuse his partner of doing the White Flag Gambit followed immediately by doing the White Flag Gambit.

[Something_Smart]

if I wanted to discredit a read I would say it was baseless.

Can you elaborate on this? Like, you basically implied that it was baseless while also asking a question, that seems like a superior way to discredit a read to me. And there is nothing that says that you can't be both asking a question AND discrediting a read. (Because you definitely can.)

If you just say it's baseless, then it's very obvious that you're doing nothing but discredit. If you were to try to discredit the read that seems to me exactly how you would do it.

[Something_Smart]

You're implying not only that you disagree with the read but that you can't even understand why it exists. That's discrediting.

[Something_Smart]

Yes, that's exactly right. To disagree with something that you don't understand, without trying to understand it, is discrediting.

[Something_Smart]

Yes, that's exactly right. To disagree with something that you don't understand, without trying to understand it, is discrediting.

I disagree with this.

If a scientific paper / study is discredited, it means that it has been proven to be false, not that someone went 'I don't think he's right and I don't care what evidence he has'.

Does that make sense?

Also pretty sure Hiraki was being sarcastic again in his last post, which is becoming increasingly annoying

You're not wrong. However in my experience on this site discrediting has been taken to mean trying to shoot something down or imply it's invalid without a good reason. What Hiraki did was essentially to make the claim that there is no possible basis for a legitimate townread on me (and yes Hiraki it is possible to make an implicit claim by asking a question), which, if accepted, would eliminate any and all townreads on me. That, to me, is discrediting, and if you want to use a different word for it then feel free.

Hiraki pings me

what do you mean by that?

I didn't like how he was discrediting Transcend's townread on me.

Do you see this as an inherently scummy thing to do?

Yes, because it represents a mindset of exclusively persuasion rather than one of game-solving. (Not to mention that the read he was discrediting was RIGHT, making it even more likely to be scum motivated, though of course you don't have to share that viewpoint.)

[Something_Smart]

therefore asking a question that I don't want the answer to.

Please show where I claimed this.

[Something_Smart]

98% of the time.

[Something_Smart]

When does that train of thought come from scum is a better question. When do you see scum make a huge deal out of somebody questioning a townread on them?

[Something_Smart]

I feel like I should be voting at this point

I don't feel like I've seen enough evidence to yet but given how dead this game is I may just go for the OMGUS on a burden of proficiency basis.

[Something_Smart]

That's​ absolutely ridiculous.

[Something_Smart]

Also as scum I hammer here no matter who my partner is (assuming it's not Transcend of course) because I know the numbers and because my scum game tends to get worse as the game goes on.

[Something_Smart]

Goddammit why does my strongest townread quickhammer

[Something_Smart]

Transcend I believe the only way I can be scum to you is with Draynth, with that hammer being planned. In any event it never makes sense for you to kill me. Honestly it is probably best to kill Draynth because I really don't want him in LYLO after that hammer.

[Something_Smart]

Draynth, explain that hammer.

[Something_Smart]

Like in all honesty I thought the team was Draynth/Hiraki and I still do but choosing between BTD6 and Hiraki would have been MUCH easier than choosing between BTD6 and Draynth.

[Something_Smart]

Also nice shot Transcend ofc. (Though IMO it would still have been better not to selfvote)

[Something_Smart]

We've already discussed how quickhammering is a scum move.

And 124 sounds like YOU knew Transcend was going to flip town.

[Something_Smart]

Please explain the hammer now.

Can you also tell me how afraid you were of getting vengekilled? (Both before the flip and after it)

[Something_Smart]

What?

'It's also interesting how SS doesn't even entertain the possiblitity that Transcend is Scum, it's as if he knows that the flip will be town. Food for thought'.

I didn't know what the flip would be at this point, I highlighted the fact that you were convinced Transcend would flip Town.

I wasn't convinced he would flip town. But if he was scum, then what I said post-hammer meant literally nothing; whereas if he was town, then it could be very important.
Your posts didn't seem to be reflecting the same mindset.

I had a weird theory that you and Transcend were hard bussing each other. I've been playing this game like a normal game (Ie. that I'll have time to get lots of interactions / post-flip tells), where as I should be playing it purely on a 1/2 day basis. Based on that the theory seemed more likely than before, + I was tired of specifically asking Transcend to elaborate on his reads only for him to blatantly ignore me and vote himself.

You thought we were hard bussing each other? Where did I even indicate that I was scumreading him?

Why would I be scared?

It's frustrating that BTD isn't here

Because you quickhammered, and we had already discussed that scum might quickhammer because even if they get killed it decreases town's EV from 50% to 33%.
And BTD6 is V/LA so there's no point complaining about him.

Also I'm happy to Sheep Transcend's reads

@BTD6_Maker

, Let me know when you want to vote SS.

If you want to vote me you don't need BTD6's approval. Although you do need to explain why the hell you think the interactions between me and Hiraki were scum-scum...

[Something_Smart]

I thought it was because you thought Transcend was scum with me?

[Something_Smart]

So what did you learn from the reaction?

[Something_Smart]

Why would Hiraki and I start a fight there? If Transcend hadn't self voted the lynch would have probably landed on one of us.
Also, do you think the Transcend wagon had no scum on it?

[Something_Smart]

Like, Occam's razor. From either of your perspectives, the scum is either someone who interacted minimally with flipped scum or someone who started and escalated a major fight with him. Now I'm not saying that it's impossible for scum to do that but it's absurd to use that interaction as a reason to scumread me.

Like you're both scumreading me for dumb reasons and it's really not helping me sort you. I thought for sure Draynth was scum after his textbook scum argument but BTD6 pushing me not DESPITE my interactions with Hiraki but BECAUSE of them is annoying as all hell.

If I had to decide now, I'd decide Draynth because of the hammer for which his explanation is lacking and quite scummy. (He doesn't even seem to have been scumreading Transcend.) Not to mention that he essentially backtracked on the reason for it.

That said I'm not going to decide now, but if either of you want to vote me, I'd very much prefer that you double-check your role PM and make sure it's red before doing so.

[Something_Smart]

Not crossvoting until BTD6 posts because I won't have consistent access. But it's pretty clear that Draynth went into the day intending to get me lynched (as opposed to intending to sort us) and only voted me once he thought that BTD6 was more likely to vote me as well.

[Something_Smart]

Also 148 is full of misrepresentations and misleading statements that I'll hopefully get to tomorrow when I'm not stuck on mobile.

[Something_Smart]

I'm going to try to explain my point of view as clearly as I can without getting pissed.

This is all @BTD6. (I do still want Draynth to follow the last sentence of 135.)

First things first. It was clear that I was not ready for the day to end. I never voted once, and I never professed any strong scumreads. When Draynth quickhammered, I rushed to get in all the thoughts I felt were relevant for the immediate event, assuming that the game was not over. If it was, awesome; but if it wasn't then the path to victory had just gotten much harder. Which is why I felt (and still feel) Draynth should have been vengekilled for making such an anti-town action.

Now, the one person I interacted substantially with was Hiraki. I did so over the course of most of the day, mostly relating to his one comment that discredited Transcend's townread on me. "Flimsy" is not the word I would use to describe it-- I'd call it "petty" or "minor". Because it was minor; the game had lasted 5 pages and I didn't even scumread it strongly enough to vote. I got to this point in BTD6's reasoning in 153 and I mostly understood where you were coming from. Then you suddenly made two assumptions with no logical basis, and for no reason that I can see other than confirmation bias:

While SS did push a known scum, they seemed to have flimsy reasoning. This seems like SS looked specifically for reasons to push Hiraki which could easily have been faked by scum.

The second sentence does not follow from the first. The missing piece is that you are assuming that there were other more serious things that I could have pushed on, and that I picked out Hiraki's because I wanted to push Hiraki specifically. This assumption is wrong; Hiraki's post and subsequent response when I called him out on it, were the scummiest things of the game which was at that point on page 2.

Scum would probably not plan on doing something genuinely scummy, as then Townies may be likely to notice and lynch Hiraki. Thus SS would be looking to jump on things which aren't genuinely scummy but were planned.

I could raise issues with your claiming to know all about scum's strategy 100% of the time, but the problem here is even simpler: why do you still not think Hiraki's discrediting of Transcend's townread on me was scummy, even after knowing it came from flipped scum? And you had better not mention anything about my alignment in your answer.

Finally, I want to take a step back and look at your argument as a whole. First, it's inconsistent. You're faulting me extensively for my interactions with Hiraki without even so much as briefly commenting on Draynth's interactions with him. And the interactions that you are scumreading served to put me and Hiraki into the spotlight of the game. I reiterate this, and you're free to debate it if you want--

If Transcend had not selfvoted, the lynch would have likely gone on either me or Hiraki.

Which means that as scum, our argument is essentially a lose-lose; if enough townies take either side, we lose. The only way to win is to count on a townie doing something attention-distracting to draw the lynch. And even in that case, this scenario implies that while the two scum were fighting, all three townies ignored them and piled on a town wagon. Sure, it could happen. But it should at least be enough to reevaluate, something which you don't seem to be doing.

[Something_Smart]

Ultimately my issue with the whole situation was that you focused primarily on Hiraki without commenting on anyone else. This is a problem. The fact that Hiraki ended up flipping town makes me wary though. It means you either hit a 1/2 chance of the person you're arguing with being scum, or you / Hiraki are the scum pair and it was planned. Having never played a small game like this before I don't know which is more likely.

I mean, this is explained fairly well in the first large paragraph of 154. I focused on Hiraki because that was something that I thought I could get a read off of if I pushed it-- which I did, albeit fairly weak. I hadn't gotten around to interacting with the others, though I would probably have primarily focused on BTD6 given that I had a townread on you and I have enough experience with Transcend to know not to interrogate him like I did to Hiraki. I kept my thoughts on the others mostly to myself because I didn't see a reason to share them, and they were rapidly changing. (I waffled between thinking Transcend was town and scum a lot.)

I think the logic in the last paragraph of 154 is more relevant; putting myself out there like that is insanely dangerous, and not in the way I would do. If I did want to distance with Hiraki, I'd probably do the opposite, making a weak case on him and voting him but not pushing super hard.

[Something_Smart]

Do you think I've committed to more than BTD6 has?

[Something_Smart]

Decided to reread because this game is going nowhere fast and I feel like a vote needs to be put down soon so something can happen.

This post contains analysis that is only valid from my POV and that's intentional as it's just a braindump of my thoughts so I can come to a decision and not intended to convince.

On page 1 I already found two things that point to Draynth lol

well in the last edition of this i was lynched d1 and took a shot at the scum outside of the scum who quickhammered me.

just makes me think that he might have tried the same thing again and expected Draynth to get lynched.

i tr you both

how do you TR Something??? draynath i get but something???

well that settles it then, BTD and Hiraki are confirmed scum

o-o-o-o-oh uhh-uhh-uhh o-o-o-oo-oh no....fuck BTD...h-h-h-h-how w-w-w-were we cau-u-ught so q-quickly? h-h-h-have I fa-fa-failed you???

I TR Draynth btw, no chance in hell I'm OK with that lynch for post 8; could've easily done that and left

And this doesn't feel like the reaction of scum whose scumteam was actually just named, I feel like he'd be more serious if he actually saw the need to change Transcend's mind.

he isn't town

caught, gg btd, we tried so hard :'(

Are you going to explain how you TR Something then?

This too.

Page 2 Draynth defends Hiraki, BTD tries to pair Transcend and me (both town) as scum.

Draynth asks BTD6 for reads on me (town) and Hiraki (scum), BTD6 scumleans me and townleans Hiraki. Both of these are possible partner interactions. Draynth questions my scumread on Hiraki some more.

@Hiraki what do you think of the suspicion against you, and who do you think are the scum?

gives me shivers

69 is more soft defending of Hiraki by Draynth

Reading page 3, the juxtaposition of my conversation with Hiraki and Draynth's conversation with Hiraki is very interesting. Hiraki responded to me with maximum discrediting, but he seemed reasoned and distant when talking to Draynth. I realize that he was trying to mislynch me, but the whole tone of that conversation feels a bit faked. (And yeah I realize I'm confbiased because I want Draynth to be scum pretty badly here. But I'm doing what I can.)

Also 74-75, Hiraki made a snippy response that misunderstood Draynth, it's an interaction that certainly doesn't stand out as TvS, I don't know if it is particularly SvS but it very well could be.

Also in 76 Hiraki responds to Transcend's scumread on him and once again goes into discredit-mode. He never goes into discredit-mode with Draynth, even though Draynth was implying a scumread on him too...

108 - Draynth scumreads Hiraki for something that's lazy and not really true (not scumhunting), rather than the legitimate reasons that I've given. Red flag.

Draynth throws shade on me for throwing shade on him which is reasonable, the only thing I don't like about this part is that he doesn't really share or even understand the mindset of "Transcend scum = game over" like I did.

Not really looking at Day 2 in as much detail because interactions are primarily what I was looking for. But honestly I'm willing to trust Transcend's BTD6 meta and I know that BTD6 has a scummy sounding tone usually.

I'm intending to vote Draynth, but I just want to make myself feel a bit better about BTD6 first (because I feel like BTD6 could easily be either alignment here).

[Something_Smart]

Confbias is a towntell...

[Something_Smart]

Pro tip Draynth: don't quickhammer townies.
Also I never voted the whole game lol

[Something_Smart]

I mean, genuine confbias means your thoughts were genuine.

Also, look at the one person who kept their options open in this LYLO.