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Post #34 (isolation #2) » Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:53 am
Postby zoraster »
Well, they did get a referendum on the alternative vote method.
Anyway, i think their dalliance with the conservatives was pretty poorly considered, and it was pretty obvious. I don't know if LDs with their first whiff of power just lost their heads or what.
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Post #36 (isolation #3) » Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:58 am
Postby zoraster »
Oh, I completely agree. It was political suicide for them to enter into a coalition with the Tories.
At the same time in some sort of marginal constituency where a LD is in the running, what else is there to do? Vote for Corbyn led Labour? The Tories? There are no good answers.
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Post #39 (isolation #4) » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:03 am
Postby zoraster »
Vote strategically in those situations, Mac. Think about which candidates have any shot in your constituency whatsoever, vote for one whose party you dislike least.
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Post #40 (isolation #5) » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:06 am
Postby zoraster »
In post 38, Nexus wrote:My current constituency has a 12k gap between the Tories and then who was second - Labour last time around - the Lib Dems took a 15% hit going from second to fourth behind the Tories, Lib Dems and UKIP.
I need to get out and speak to the local candidates (other than Victoria Prentis because she's foul)
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Post #49 (isolation #6) » Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:28 am
Postby zoraster »
Sure, but most Labour voted for it too in the end. 177 of 229 did so, amazingly. Only SNP and LDs really voted convincingly against of the parties with more than 3 MPs.
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Post #90 (isolation #15) » Fri May 05, 2017 5:05 pm
Postby zoraster »
In post 88, Max wrote:So basically either we claim that ukip voters have seeped to labour and tories in equal portion as labour voters have seeped away to the tories. Or we say that ukip voters have tended to switch to conservative.
Without any evidence to the contrary, ockhams razor/fewer assumptions seems right. Especially given then similarity between the two party's platform.
Well, what's your argument then? That Labour is going to surprise us all and actually contest the election in June?
I fully accept that the Tories have captured Ukip. But they've also managed to hold onto their other flank while putting out policies to absorb Ukip. And Labour has not been position to do anything at all because Labour's leadership are incompetent nincompoops who deserve to lose.
Like for real. Think about where we were sitting a year ago. None of the Tory leadership wanted Brexit. Lots of tory membership didn't want it either. And yet here we are with a Tory leadership that is gung-ho for hard brexit and they've lost literally no one in their tent. In large part that's because there's no credible opposition party.
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Post #102 (isolation #17) » Mon May 22, 2017 3:35 am
Postby zoraster »
I kind of wonder if the Tories got complacent so they thought "oh hey. We're going to win no matter what. Let's throw all our least popular wishes into the manifesto so we can move forward on them without anyone being able to complain that we didn't warn them."
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Post #213 (isolation #18) » Sun May 28, 2017 3:32 am
Postby zoraster »
It really has been weird. Almost like they viewed their lead as a challenge.
The lead was always going to shrink, of course, but it does seem like an unforced error. Like... she starts strong by saying "oh. whether you're Labour or Tory we need to come together here." but perhaps that manifesto was not a great partner with that message.
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Post #218 (isolation #21) » Mon May 29, 2017 3:45 am
Postby zoraster »
In what way? I don't see much in the difference between the two negotiating the exit. They both essentially face the same problem, which is that the EU member states aren't particularly inclined to give the UK a very good deal.
Their priorities are likely to be somewhat different, but I'm not sure how much is in that.
And I agree that everyone is resigned to Brexit now, but that's because Labour didn't spend any time at all advocating for staying.
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Post #237 (isolation #26) » Tue May 30, 2017 4:44 am
Postby zoraster »
In post 235, Nexus wrote:She was asked whether or not she would walk away from a Brexit deal if she didn't get exactly what she wanted or if she had to pay too much to get what she wanted. She said yes, and that "No deal was better than a bad deal."
Oh. So we're agreeing. That's dumb.
Although it's almost certainly a negotiating position.
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Post #239 (isolation #27) » Tue May 30, 2017 5:40 am
Postby zoraster »
In post 238, Randomnamechange wrote:Theresa May is setting herself up to paint the EU as the bad guys when they won't give us a "good-enough" deal. she could be doing a much better job with negotiations.
In what way?
Don't get me wrong. She sounds delusional, and that's not great in a negotiation partner. But a big part of negotiation is the perceived likeliness to walk away from the table. Or in the jargon of negotiation theory, BATNA: Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement.
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Post #241 (isolation #28) » Tue May 30, 2017 5:54 am
Postby zoraster »
Yeah the basic problem is brexit is a horrible negotiation position for the UK, no matter what your priorities are. It's easy to think "oh, we're big trading partners with the EU so of course they want our trade" but the existential threat of the UK's leaving as well as the political will at home to make sure the UK comes out worse than it went in is pretty much overwhelming. Whether it's Corbyn or May, the room for difference in result is limited. Corbyn may allow more ground on immigration, which can be helpful to UK citizens in the EU and perhaps open up certain other options, but for the most part it'll be coming to terms with the weak position the UK has found itself in.
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Post #243 (isolation #29) » Tue May 30, 2017 6:01 am
Postby zoraster »
Yeah, it's hard to know whether that's an act or not. But ultimately it'll be enforced on her.
In any event, I just have a hard time believing that people will view EU negotiations as the salient, deciding point between May and Corbyn. There are bigger differences. If Labour had made a case for staying in the EU, then it'd be a totally different thing, but there are more important differences between the two.
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Post #267 (isolation #31) » Wed Jun 07, 2017 4:25 am
Postby zoraster »
Just to clarify, you're saying you'll change your avatar for a week if Labour doesn't win and I'd change mine a month if Labour wins? A win in this case is ends up with the Prime Minister position or is it "gets a majority of seats"?
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Post #281 (isolation #35) » Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:05 am
Postby zoraster »
it's stated a little confusingly. Suffice it to say, I do not think there will be a lot of joy for Labour tomorrow. I hope I'm wrong, but if they aren't in a position to scrabble together a coalition, I hope they lose badly and learn some lessons from what should have been a very winnable race.
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Post #283 (isolation #36) » Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:21 am
Postby zoraster »
Once the election was
announced
Labour has done a fine job. And the Tories have tried their level best to help Labour out. But they were always going to have an immense amount of trouble with this election. What I'd have done differently is mostly everything before the announcement:
1. Never, ever, ever, ever, ever select Jeremy Corbyn. Everything I say after this point is basically second fiddle to this first point.
2. It's tough because of the different constituencies that Labour makes up, but Brexit should never have been allowed to calcify. Labour rolled over on it, and that ceded all potential ground for difference on an issue that they could have won on. Instead, the majority of their MPs voted for the government's brexit proposal. The Brexit campaign was a cynical one that even supporters of Brexit recognized as false in the immediate aftermath, but it was given legitimacy when the opposition decided it wasn't really worth talking about.
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Post #285 (isolation #37) » Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:30 am
Postby zoraster »
No. He really is not better than Ed Milliband. Owen Smith would have been no great giant of politics, but he would have been better than Corbyn.
And no. It really is not exaggerated. It's not impossible that some situation will occur that Corbyn could be elected, but it will be despite him.
Yes, he's "better than people thought" but that doesn't really go very far because it's basically true of any time people actually have to gut up and decide to vote on someone.
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Post #287 (isolation #38) » Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:48 am
Postby zoraster »
I think his presence allows the Tories to get away with all manner of terrible things. Brexit itself can be pinned on him. Sure, it can be on the Tories too, but any other Labour leader of the past 20 years wouldn't give mealy-mouthed campaign in favor of Remain.
Ultimately the thing I care most about is not having the Tories in charge, continuing austerity, succumbing to an even deeper loathing of immigrants, decreasing the public nature of the NHS, etc. and I thoroughly reject the idea that Labour under its previous iterations were particularly close to this Tory party. So when I see Corbyn, whose inherent appeal is fairly narrow, I think he does his party harm as the head of it.
Politics is rarely as simple as "unelectable" or not: but we can say that certain things create unnecessary headwinds.
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Post #338 (isolation #49) » Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:14 am
Postby zoraster »
I mean, realistically the exit polls are unlikely to be precisely correct (and could be pretty wrong!) and the number that actually comes in is hugely important.
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Post #340 (isolation #50) » Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:27 am
Postby zoraster »
Fuller results from Houghton and Sunderland South paint a more complex picture.
Labour’s Bridget Phillipson held the seat with 24,665 votes; that’s 59.6%, up 4.4 points on last time.
Paul Howell for the Conservatives came second on 12,324 – up 11 points on 2015 and benefiting from Ukip falling 16 points. Its candidate, Michael Joyce, came third with 2,379 votes.
Fourth was the Lib Dem Paul Edgeworth on 908. The Green Richard Bradley on 725 was fifth; the independent Mick Watson got 479.
Turnout was 61%.
But the result is a 3.5% swing Labour to Conservative – the opposite to what the exit poll predicted.
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Post #346 (isolation #52) » Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:41 am
Postby zoraster »
Let's say Labour does slightly better than the exit polls and can actually form some sort of coalition government. Do the LDs get their wish of a second referendum?
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Post #359 (isolation #55) » Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:36 pm
Postby zoraster »
Yeah. The collapse of UKIP leads to some volatility.
Also, I think the SNP story-line will be interesting to watch as Labour does stand to gain some ground there, but not in a way that is meaningful for governance.
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Post #400 (isolation #58) » Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:21 pm
Postby zoraster »
In post 394, Porochaz wrote:Yeah. Im not believing that. Everything (sans scotland) Im seeing is suggesting that conservatives are doing worse than the exit polls
Scotland the counteracting force here. Labour can pick up Snp seats but not that impactful. Tories pick up some snp seats and its a big deal