UK Pol - #independenceday

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smart. Easier for opposition to go after the areas that Tories are fucking up in if they can get her to admit them.
On the Farron thing, he has previously stated that he is strongly in favour of gay rights, so he may understand that it is important even if he is against it. still a slimeball, but it isn't as politically major as it could be.

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Interesting feedback from today. Nearby Blackburn is being treated as an "important seat", currently held on a 4,000 vote margin. Campaigning in such seats implies that Labour thinks it has to fight anything with a margin smaller than that. (N.B.: Blackburn has a history of BNP voting, so maybe there's fear the post-Brexit push might influence things.)

do labour have the seat currently?
also lol BNP

criminal investigation into voter fraud by the Tories in Farage's seat in the last election could be a spanner in the works though

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oh dear

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dw labour is saved

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fuck sorry missed that :/

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Corbyn's manifesto was pretty great. The fact that it was extremely optimistic and more realistic than the Tory manifesto looks promising. While it is still a tiny chance that the Tories lose, the lead is dimishing and it might not be as much of a whitewash as predicted

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there was a member of UKIP (cant remember the exact role) complaining about Theresa May reducing the police numbers as a direct attack.
can always rely on them to keep it classy.

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in terms of brexit negotiations, corbyn understands that there is going to be give and take and would be more inclined to do stuff like guarantee EU worker's rights (so the NHS doesn't get fucked over as an example of why this is good for both parties).May is going with a hyper aggressive, take as much as we can attitude which isn't going to achieve anything because we have a weaker standpoint. Corbyn is more likely to give the EU reasons to work with us than May. (at least from what ive seen)

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gdi corbyn it was going so well

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Theresa May is setting herself up to paint the EU as the bad guys when they won't give us a "good-enough" deal. she could be doing a much better job with negotiations.

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Theresa May is setting herself up to paint the EU as the bad guys when they won't give us a "good-enough" deal. she could be doing a much better job with negotiations.

In what way?

Don't get me wrong. She sounds delusional, and that's not great in a negotiation partner. But a big part of negotiation is the perceived likeliness to walk away from the table. Or in the jargon of negotiation theory, BATNA: Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement.

It's just that those things have to be credible.

that wasn't really to do with that point. her general positions are needlessly confrontational and don't seem to be geared towards getting a good deal as appeasing the pro-brexit voters. this presents a possible reason for that statement, although i agree that she probs needed to say that regardless.

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Yeah the basic problem is brexit is a horrible negotiation position for the UK, no matter what your priorities are.

the thing is from her negotiating tactics May doesn't seem to think this. Whereas Corbyn knows they need to give the EU a reason to work with us.

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i totally agree.

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i think if we were closer to article 50 being triggered and EU were willing to negotiate now it would, but rn we don't know enough for it to majorly affect the vote.

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(contains a lot of swearing)
(sorry if its already been posted)

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Oh this thread is a thing. I'd been wondering who to vote for but I just found out I'm not actually eligible to vote in general elections.
We're as screwed as ever regardless who wins though right weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

join the club on the first part
not really tbh. Labour look to be able to do some good stuff.

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 73286.html
not really sure whether or not this is justified or pushing too far

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https://www.facebook.com/NationalizedMe ... 354667675/
v important

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I totally agree. I feel like I needed to start a page like a week ago if i wanted to be able to cash in on that trend I've probs left it too late now.

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what the actual fuck?

i highly doubt anyone's mind is going to be changed by that. There is a p low crossover between labour voters and Sun readers.

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GOTV?

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get out the vote ie mobilizing your own base.

gotcha

God, this election is depressing. Those of you who actually have the right to vote, please do so. I would say preferably not for any of the clowns, but then you're basically voting Green.

i don't really feel like Greens escape that category tbh

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isn't your avi bet in favour of Corbyn?

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must have misread it mb

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I'm curious, what should hey have done better? They've played a v smart campaign to reduce the lead by as much as they have. Apart from not locking Diane Abbot in a cellar at the start of thr campaign i didnt see a massive amount of issues with it?

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I disagree on point 1. Corbyn is a hell of a lot better than Ed Milliband and the whole 'unelectable Corbyn' angle is massively over-exaggerated by the media. He's overtaken May in polling on leadership ability and now that he's in the limelight people are realizing he is better than they thought.
People like Owen Smith would just continue to slowly facilitate the decline of the Labour Party into an unelectable mess that refuses to update their stances.

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What is the actual issue with Corbyn?

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gl

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https://www.facebook.com/starwarssocialism/

Pretty dece meme page

noice

https://www.facebook.com/bbcthree/video ... 158040787/

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exit polls coming up soon

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idk how late im gonna stay up watching it tbh
unless it starts kicking off ill probs wait until the morning for most stuff

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Looking good so far potentially
Swings in sunderland could be down to exit poll methodology which wont affect the outcome

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Does anyone have a list of exit polls for each seat?

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Idk but i like it

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Better than exit polls but way worse than anything before that. And exit polls could still be accurate with how few seats have come out so far.

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It looks like some areas are swinging more than expected for tories (the north of england) and some are swinging more than expected for labour (south and scotland)

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Really hoping that happens

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Same for Hastings

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BIG MOOD ALERT

Lmao

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Emily Thornberry saying there won't be a coalition

Makes sense, they weren't getting one anyway

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Labour predicting gains in wales

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Oi oi
I need to get some sleep tonight so im off
Hoe it continues on the track it seems to be on atm

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This should be enough for jezza to stick around and fuck over the tories which tbh im happy with for this election

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oh good, the DUP are here to save the day. Now we have a PM who votes against gay rights aligned with a party who feel being gay is unnatural and a sin.

dw they know its career suicide to push through anti-lgbt legislation. although may is stupid enough to try anyway. in which case they get completely fucked over.

I've been reading a lot of material from actual UK citizens reacting to this election. For every "Wow I was so wrong about Corbyn" there's a butthurt Blairite saying "Corbyn is still crap and unelectable he just benefited from Tory incompetence."

I don't buy it.

Now I'm just an American looking in, but the Conservatives made the biggest dividends from SNP slumping and UKIP imploding, yet Labour still increased their total share of the vote by

10 freaking %

. They only trailed by

2.4%

of the vote and yet the Tories still have 50+ more seats. The Conservatives are clearly being propped up by the electoral system - the British left mostly united around Labour.

Blairites will say "this was his chance to be electable and they still didn't get a majority" but that's crap. This is clearly indicative of a leftward shift taking hold. Such a notion is clearly ignoring that the Conservatives get dozens and dozens of free seats from the rural regions.

The biggest anomaly for me as a foreign is how the Conservatives made such gains in Scotland. Several Scottish districts that voted Labour or LibDem as recently as 2010 and fell to the SNP surge between 2010-2015 suddenly went Tory. Personally I can only explain it as from the uncertainty over Brexit - can a native help clear things up for me here? If that's the case then I would expect Labour to make even more gains in 2020, especially in Scotland.

Ruth Davidson has a lot to do with it.
also some blairites e.g. Jack Straw are potentially supporting Corbyn

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May is being pushed out by 1922 committee.
If she hasn't sacked her two most senior advisers by Monday they are calling for a leadership election.

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tbf apparently one of them resigned on friday but no one noticed

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Davidson is denying it or May is denying it?

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damn

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wow. i was expecting them to get the brexit negotiations hammered out to a certain extent first.
who replaces her then? ruth davidson? bojo? *shudders* Gove?

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Cabinet reshuffle is out.

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assume this was what you were referring to? it was pretty great.

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https://youtu.be/KRpMTQl7cvI

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im confused about why though. if it's poor gains in teh election its weird he waited this long.
derf glad to be rid of him though. I actually thought Nick Clegg was a decent person and it was p horrible to see Tim Farron as the follow up.

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yeah. he wasnt a brilliant leader but his resignation speech was incredibly good.

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whereas milliband's made him look like a nob

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i cri evry tim

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i feel like this could REALLY use a bump right now

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basically everything is going to shit the government is collapsing votes are being called people are resigning it is on

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the most punchable face of all time