Open 684: Stacking the Deck (Game Over!)
- CommKnight
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By the way, I'm third party multiple day-vig.In post 52, Fredrick E Campbell wrote:By the way, I'm the town Roleblocker.DAYKILL: FREDRICK E CAMPBELL- CommKnight
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@Mod: I've never played this set-up before honestly. But I'm curious about Goon-Cop. Let's say for instance that mafia pick Bulletproof and Role Cop. Now technically they aren't "Goon" anymore. So does Goon Cop become useless (Can't find either of them anymore?) Or is Goon Cop effective against them and only can't find Traitor?
Also my bets are on them taking JOAT and Bulletproof which would make 4 town PRs, we know there ain't an IC so it should be easy to tell if someone is truthful later on.- CommKnight
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Alright, time to get a bit more serious here now that we got some real shit going on. First of all. XnadrojX played AGAINST me before when he was mafia and I was town. He got himself fucked that game. Compare his play so far this game to that one. I'd like to think he's town this roll of the dice. Which will be nice.
Also LOL if both of these are scum, they need this early lynch so they know how much they need to still learn. VOTE: Frederick E Campbell GET REKT M8.
Seriously though, I'm comfortable with this. He's more likely to be scum jumping on with Lowell than vice versa. But one of these two are definitely scum and it's more likely him.- CommKnight
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Really? It's scum doc, he's trying to get a PR to counter him. Most likely mafia traitor.In post 114, Aubrey wrote:I've already determined that you probably aren't either role that you've claimed. Now it's just figuring out the most likely alignment motive for the stunt.- CommKnight
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Hawk and Aubrey could be TvT, I did miss your question to me. But honestly I'm not solid on it on either side of it. But TvT is my bet.
Though the other person I suspected actually is an option today. Lowell wasn't very townie early game. VOTE: Lowell- CommKnight
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I'm having a hard time getting into this one. That and it seems like there's multiple people we're waiting on that are making this drag on. I'm on Lowell but the following ened prods:
-Hawk
-thenewearth
-Lowell
-Pyra
4/13 people haven't posted in over 2 days. So yeah, that's about a third of the game not here.- CommKnight
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1.) I can't believe people who've played with me that are in this game haven't voted me for being quiet. Since I'm mostly pretty active in all of my games. (When I say pretty active, I mean lengthy posts, haven't really made lengthy posts this game).In post 350, Aubrey wrote: Comm, you've talked some but your laying in the shadows. Come into the light unless your a vampire. I agree with the others. If you think the game has gone silent, then make an attempt to cause an uproar in it. You're not being a very memorable player.
2.) As town I usually draw so much heat and no one likes my cases Day 1 (or are unwilling to see a different way of thinking). That and they expect the greatest cases and when I come up with something simple I'm scum read for it and spend the rest of Day 1 defending myself.
3.) I feel like a vampire. I work the evening shift so really I spend around midnight doing most posts. Sometimes I'll post around lunch time if I wake up early enough.
4.) Honestly, it's the first time I can say that both my reads AND gut are failing me in sorting people. Lowell was an early scum read and no one has pinged me as scummy since. I do have a few town leans such as Xnad and havingfitz. From there, I got nothing, zilch, zero, nadda. Which is a new one for me. I can usually make up cases if it comes down to it to engage people but I just can't seem to think of one.
Also I did read FEC as scummy, even if trolling. But no one else seems to agree with scumreading that slot.
So two scum leans and two town leans, that still leaves me 7 slots left to sort. I do feel like Aubrey, MMM and Pyra should be off the pool for today and I would compromise on Shinobi. Something feels off about him. (Not necessarily scummy per-say. But if it came down to him or one of my town leans, it'd be him).
If there's specific posts that you want my thoughts on, go ahead and tell me the post number(s) to look at and I'll take a reread of them to see if anything is jumping out at me about them. Though I feel like a lot of them won't be as affective until we got some flips.- CommKnight
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@Gamma, yeah, about 5am-11am is my hide-away from the world and shut my eyes time after feasting on the blood of my enemies from either CoD, Battlefield, Siege or me playing through Black Flag. (Seriously, wish I played when it was more active online, I love the sea battles).- CommKnight
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As I've said, I've been having an off feeling about Shinobi and I think for D1 cases goes, this is a damning one right here. Active scum will try to buddy town so they can later claim "Well I didn't SR them" or "Well I didn't lynch them".In post 418, MMM wrote:
VOTE: ShinobiIn post 415, Shinobi wrote:I've been pushing my own wagon for some time now, who is also on the lowell vote.
Lowell is town and Shinobi is planning to act all LAMIST tomorrow after he points out he was voting the guy who started the wagon on Lowell.
VOTE: Shinobi
Finally a case I agree with and MMM is the one to make it (one of my townleans/reads).- CommKnight
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Yay, something I can actually reply to.
Whether you like someone or not is NAI for both parties.In post 456, Boonskiies wrote: I'm going to straight up say that I don't like CommKnight, and do not think he is flipping town this game.
Oh? Which ones? Which parts? Be more specific. I can say the majority or Shinobi's and Lowell's posts don't feel like they're coming from a town perspective either. But hey, without pointing out what doesn't, it's just gut matey.Majority of his posts early didn't seem like they were coming from a town perspective,
Let me just stop you right there, full stop. You think I was worried about being meta'd for activity so I post something about how I'm usually active. Which I also later end up explaining that my reads and gut are failing me this game for Day 1.himthat people were going to vote him based off metaworried
Not looking for town cred, I was asked what I thought, so I gave my answer. It's either right or wrong, but it's an early guess at two unknown's alignments. I wasn't like PLEASE TOWN READ ME FOR SAYING THIS IS TVT! They asked my opinion, I gave it.I find that a lot of scum state that things like that are probably TvT, so they can get town cred if potentially both of them are lynched in the game.
I actually don't know how I feel about Lowell. The wagon on him made me want to point towards town, but Xayzeck's subtle shift of the wagon made me feel otherwise. I also haven't generally cared for much of his posts. That being said, regardless of his alignment, scum was on his wagon.
Jeez for someone pointing out me saying TvT is likely to come from scum, what is this. "I have suspicions on Lowell, but there is FOR SURE scum on his wagon regardless of alignment." Covering all your bases are you?
Ah, so if you don't call Lowell town, then you think he might be scum. (I'll give you a hint, this is an open set-up game, which means not-town = scum. There are no third parties).MMM's post where he voted on Shinobi is weird. I wouldn't call Lowell town at all.
Yeah, that jump on the wagon. Like he even earlier stated he'd compromise on Shinobi and ended up doing so along with quoting a post he felt was a sufficient case to do so.God damn, Comm's join onto the Shinobi wagon is bad. He is the fifth one on it and he goes "Like I said, shinobi blah blah blah....off feeling."
Oh look, there it is!In post 367, CommKnight wrote:I would compromise on Shinobi. Something feels off about him. (Not necessarily scummy per-say. But if it came down to him or one of my town leans, it'd be him).
Scum is also 100% on this wagon regardless of Shinobi's alignment, which I see as blatantly town and incredibly obvious TownShinobi.
Didn't you ALSO say the same about Lowell's wagon?
Oh look you did. "Regardless of these two wagons of the day, SCUM are on them folks! It can't be that town has found two scummy people and voted them up with scum avoiding them, no sir-ee.. SCUM ARE ON THEM!"I actually don't know how I feel about Lowell. The wagon on him made me want to point towards town, but Xayzeck's subtle shift of the wagon made me feel otherwise. I also haven't generally cared for much of his posts.That being said, regardless of his alignment, scum was on his wagon.
So what happens when they both end up being scum? Who's the third then since you got it all figured out Day 1 and seem to know more than the rest of us apparently. I'll be happy to read one scum correctly Day 1 let alone two.
I know you're wrong on me, but I'm pretty sure you're wrong about MMM as well.Ths leads me to believe that either MMM or CommKnight are scum,
@Boonskiies, pick up your game bro, tunneling on me is not going to help because even though I haven't posted this game much, I'll rip your arguments to shit. Especially when you start off with saying "regardless of alignment" for TWO people. That means you're skipping over the fact they both could be scum.
Honestly the only reason I'm not voting you was your predecessor and the fact Shinobi is more likely to be scum at this point. Also the fact I can see this sort of tunneling coming from town. But LOL at the shitty quality of it.- CommKnight
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Actually with how fast my wagon grew, I invite you all to lynch me. Let me flip green and when I do, you can find the idiots that actually thought wagoning me was smart. Boonskies is legit town (not a bright one and I'm refusing to read his posts until he reads mine because he admitted to not reading it).
But check the ones that hopped onto me so fast. This is almost comical. Just need some benny hill music with how fast they switched.
Go ahead, lynch me. There's going to be zero resistance to my wagon anyway. (I got no buddies that's for damn sure).- CommKnight
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*sips tea*
You're all scum reading and town reading people for not so great reasons and Boonskies replaces in to immediately form a wagon that grows with people adding votes and just nodding their head to bad logic.
But that's none of my business.
Also Boonskies said if I flip scum, MMM is likely town. However, he never said what happens when I flip town (which if he's scum and setting up my mislynch, he knows I will).
But that's none of my business.- CommKnight
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Just gonna say it now, if I am to die and town lynches Fitz any day in this game, I am going to come back and haunt all of you. Because you might not be able to trust me right now where I'm "unknown", but when I flip green, you will know what I say should be solid. Keep Fitz alive. He's going to be the power player when this gets down to LYLO.- CommKnight
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In post 623, Pyra wrote:@Boonskiies I already outlined what I thought about that. Self preservation is unlikely coming from a VT because lynching with an "anyone but me" mindset leaves the risk of killing a town pr off (pretty much just as likely as getting scum with that mindset), and I'd think a VT would value a PR's life over their own. I said that self preservation suggests that Shin isn't a VT (which leaves town pr or scum), not that Shin isn't town at all as you said.
These two posts, and so close together. Welcome to my scum reads Pyra. I'll let you try to figure out where you fucked up.In post 621, Pyra wrote:One thing I can say right now is that Shin's vote onto Comm looks like Shin trying to save their own skin. That's not to say anything about the reasons that either of the wagons are based on, though. Maybe Comm has given reasons for them to be wagoned, but Shin only started to mention that he liked the wagon on Comm after he himself already had a good amount of votes on him and even then, Shin didn't articulate any specific reasons for the Comm wagon that he agreed with himself. This kind of self preservation is not necessarily indicative of being scum, but it's unlikely coming from a VT at the very least. Assuming that I'm right, this leaves us the possibility of Shin being a town pr (not that likely) or scum.
As for Comm, it seems to me that they were on Shin for some time, although the post where he explains the reasons for him voting for Shin is strange (Comm mentioned that he townread MMM, but never mentioned anything along those lines until he used the townread to support his vote). Comm's reaction after being moved to L-1 doesn't sit well with me. His complaint about how fast he was voted up seems a bit hypocritical after he didn't object to quickly pushing wagons other than his own.
His immediate defeatism and expectation to be lynched (along with the sarcasm after his wagon grows) doesn't really look towny, either. It's perfectly normal for town to object to their wagon and think that it's not well-founded. However, I think a town player would also back those objections up with reasons and explain why they should not be voted up, instead of sarcastically resigning themselves to their fate, saying that at this point it's useless for them to try and convince anyone because people have already made up their minds.In post 522, CommKnight wrote:Actually with how fast my wagon grew, I invite you all to lynch me. Let me flip green and when I do, you can find the idiots that actually thought wagoning me was smart. Boonskies is legit town (not a bright one and I'm refusing to read his posts until he reads mine because he admitted to not reading it).
But check the ones that hopped onto me so fast. This is almost comical. Just need some benny hill music with how fast they switched.
Go ahead, lynch me. There's going to be zero resistance to my wagon anyway. (I got no buddies that's for damn sure).
Edit: It's nice that my post already answers Gamma's question and I don't have to go back and change it (lol).
If Shin flips red, I'm coming for you tomorrow.- CommKnight
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I'm just a VT, hence why I quoted Pyra's posts together above. Guess my little shot at him didn't read through as easily as I had hoped.In post 634, Gamma Emerald wrote:Comm I suggest you claim- CommKnight
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They're gonna do it anyway. Then they'll make up excuses to scum read you later. It's going to happen because there's a bunch of sheep following Shinobi's death call (instead of looking elsewhere if they believe Shinobi is even remotely town).In post 665, Creature wrote:
Let's see if you'll keep calling me not helpful after Comm flips town.In post 664, Shinobi wrote:not helpful- CommKnight
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Yep, though Pyra could also be a good lynch. So you can count my vote there as well. Off to work though so won't be home till closer to deadline.In post 669, Creature wrote:I take you think Shinobi is scum, right?- CommKnight
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Let me put this out there: Traitor would try to out their reads to the mafia team to off even if he tries to do it secretly.In post 698, MMM wrote:
This was actually my main reason for placing him above Shin/fitz but on second thought I think it's unlikely that it comes from scum - scum could just take the mental note that Shinobi is a PR and get rid of him at night.In post 621, Pyra wrote:One thing I can say right now is that Shin's vote onto Comm looks like Shin trying to save their own skin. That's not to say anything about the reasons that either of the wagons are based on, though. Maybe Comm has given reasons for them to be wagoned, but Shin only started to mention that he liked the wagon on Comm after he himself already had a good amount of votes on him and even then, Shin didn't articulate any specific reasons for the Comm wagon that he agreed with himself. This kind of self preservation is not necessarily indicative of being scum, but it's unlikely coming from a VT at the very least. Assuming that I'm right, this leaves us the possibility of Shin being a town pr (not that likely) or scum.
Unless of course they're both scum and Pyra is attempting to make a Shinobi PR claim more believable...
Just saying.
VOTE: Pyra- CommKnight
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Pyra (7) - Creature, Aubrey, MMM, XnadrojX, CommKnight, Shinobi, Lowell <------ Lynch!
Lowell (4) - havingfitz, Pyra, Gamma Emerald, Boonskiies
Not Voting (1) - Xayzeck
Scum fucked up. We're looking for 3 people. They aren't all going to be on the same wagon, Pyra and Gamma are dead. Which means there is at least one scum in fitz, Boonskies and Xay. This is pretty much a guarantee (the traitor will be either or, but the two goons/PRs will be one and one). By not shooting into the Pyra wagon, they more or less gave one of their buddies no water to swim in.
On the Pyra wagon I'd say Creature Aubrey and Xnad are all town. Which leaves MMM, Shinobi and Lowell for another scum if my reads are right (I usually TR one scum so I won't say they're 100% off the list).
Now then, not-voting Pyra is probably the easiest of the two. Fitz seems to be townie this game and Boonskies is acting like tunneling noob-town. Which leaves VOTE: Xayzeck
Mistake #2 was letting me live past N1. Now it's time to do a clean sweep.- CommKnight
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@Boonskies. Think about it like you were scum. Who the hell would recruit traitor and give town another PR (not only that, but traitor cannot be found by cop). If scum team recruited traitor, they are 100% stupid. Also I will say the whole me pointing out the traitor idea of Pyra probably would've made at least one scum reconsider voting Pyra.
Also for anyone wondering, we have now expended out "certain" PRs. Which means from here on out, each PR claim should be analyzed.
Goon Cop
Roleblocker - Gamma
Tracker
Bodyguard - Pyra
Vigilante
Innocent Child (reveal at start of day one) - No IC
Only possibilities now are Goon Cop, Tracker and Vigilante. Vigilante can prove himself easily (so scum can't fake claim that since they'd be caught within a day!). That means there's Goon Cop and Tracker claims possible that scum would try to fake. Also each scum flip we get that isn't a goon or traitor (BP, Role Cop, JOAT), will also prove there is a town PR (which will make fake claiming risky for scum since if they get counter claimed, they die. If they fake claim vig and there's a real vig, the real one will shoot the fake one).
Honestly, I like these odds. With Day 1 and Night 1 flips, scum is going to be cornered. Xay got screwed on PoE.- CommKnight
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You were too busy tunneling me to see my snarky remarks to your bad tunnel and the general idea I had on Shinobi/Lowell being scum (they still can be one or both on the Pyra wagon).
But for now, if I can get one red flip, we can do some further analysis from there.- CommKnight
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In post 758, Aubrey wrote:
Basically, I question the accuracy on this. I thought the town Cop got a solid read. If X person is scum, regardless of title and investigated, the cop would get the result of "goon." I didn't read anything saying that the Mafia traitor is immune to investigations. If you're referencing the Mafia cop here, I also never saw anything about the traitor being immune to their investigations either.In post 752, CommKnight wrote: (not only that, but traitor cannot be found by cop)
Well you see, a COP would find the Traitor. But a GOON COP is specific to finding only goons. Which means recruiting the traitor makes him vulnerable to investigative (while not recruiting traitor makes scum unaware of who exactly the traitor is and risk shooting him/her themselves). I mean hell, if the traitor isn't recruited they have a bullet=proof ability which with the roleblocker and bodyguard dead they'll know they hit the traitor if a kill doesn't get through.
Also I played this set-up a long time ago. You guys weren't in my first game here where I explained I use to play mafia regularly years ago on different sites (I can't even find most of them anymore). One site looked similar to this one but it had the default chat box on forums that appeared at the top of the front page where you could leave comments in real time. It had a much smaller player-base but within 10 games you pretty much knew all the actives. It had a dark theme too, I just can't remember the name of it. But I must've played about 30-40 games alone on that site + modded over 15 games there.
But that is irrelevant I think I played this set-up only once. It isn't so much the experience of it as it is a "What would I do as scum?". Well for one, why the hell would I want the town to have more power roles than needed. Recruiting the traitor to make a goon and adding ANOTHER role to town (possibly the cop to catch all three of them or a vig to shoot them), just isn't worth it. If they're smart they kept choices down to 0-1. We know Innocent child isn't in play so there's literally 3 roles left for their 3 possible choices. But I'm willing to bet they weren't stupid enough to give us 3 additional power roles for what in essence are just counters to those same roles they just handed to us. (That and originally they'd risk creating an innocent child).- CommKnight
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Also I find it amusing Shinobi is now sticking to the shadows (after all, it was a close call yesterday for him).
So far I'd say Xay and Shin. I'm having doubts on MMM being townie. He's agreeing but not agreeing with me. Wanting a "good case" to vote, which possibly could be his scum buddy so he isn't forced to outright bus without a case on how his
I'm not going to say I know all the scum team, but honestly, you can't tell me scum hopped onto the Xay wagon this quick D2. You'd have to be a fool to think scum would lead this lynch so early with no real cases from the first few voters. If Xay flips scum, I'd definitely look at those who are wanting to avoid his lynch.
I could be wrong, but the signs aren't pointing to that being the case. Also if you don't know why I townread Creature, you haven't played mafia with Creature as town. This is definitely his town play.
If someone has a better case(s) to bring forward, then bring them. But if you can't top mine, then sit down and take a back seat.- CommKnight
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@Shinobi, well if you got something else to say, bring it up. Stop being a coward scum bag hiding in the shadows only willing to call things "bad" and not put your own ass on the line to make a decent case.
I know from experience that the chances of all 3 scum on the Pyra wagon are virtually none (with obviously some exceptions). But even if you assume that, then I know myself to be town and it'd be 3/6. But unlike some others, I have no doubt we can get at least 1 scum in a pool of THREE people. So unless you care to make a case on one of the three, please sit down and we'll get to you after we get a red flip.
Fastposted by Shinobi. I'd prefer you actually create a case instead of just criticizing and questioning. There's plenty of pages to look through. So do it. Stop getting others to do all the work for you.- CommKnight
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Here's the other thing, aside from Lowell I feel comfortable with the group that has voted Xay so far today as well. I mean Shin and MMM aren't on him which is giving me a green light to say that this is likely scum. You know, unless we're all town on Xay at the moment who is also town. Scum sure as hell ain't committing to this vote yet either.- CommKnight
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I've played with town!Fitz and this looks like his play. When Boonskies entered he created a "case" on me. It was one I tore apart yet he continued to push for my head. Honestly, I'd see scum replacing in as backing down once their argument got destroyed. But he persisted. It felt like a newb-town push. Although now that I think about it, it could've been he was trying to push a wagon off his buddy and onto me. But that seems questionable since he did just replace in and I doubt scum would want to draw heat like that.
Scum have a way of always being unsure. Yet he kept pushing me, so I believe he's town. Feel free to make a case that says otherwise.
In fact feel free to make a case on Fitz too if you have one. But it remains that there's 3 people to lynch from and a very high likelyhood that at least one of them is scum. So if you are indeed town Xay, then look at the other two and push them.
Also I'm on Shinobi's case a lot because he was active D1. But now D2 he's sitting on the backburner letting shit go by. Now you can't tell me I shouldn't expect him to be as active or more active now with two flips and more to analyze on. D1's are always shit, but D2 we got something to at least work with now.- CommKnight
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Oh nice analysis from the king of bullshit himself. You've hopped on more wagons than any of us. Some with no reasoning what so ever.
@Aubrey, since you (Aubrey) actually made a reasonable reply to my post I'll answer them by part.
1.) Well that game was a clusterfuck because I was rolecop and thought I rolecoped someone who I didn't (but was going to the next night I had the chance to) and ended up getting messed up results that completely threw us (and even the mafia) through quite the olympic hurdles. I don't quite got a specific post I can point to, but in general he feels like he did that game. I'm not here to say it's concrete. It's my personal read of him *at this current moment*. He hasn't done anything I've picked out to be after him for. Unless someone feels like making a case on him, then my TR on fitz stands. You don't gotta agree with it, but that's the whole point of having an opinion isn't it? Something you believe that others may not. I see a town!Fitz this game and until the evidence comes up that says otherwise or a good case is made on him, then why the hell should I be scum reading him? People want me to scumread people for them it seems for an easy way out (or townread people to get them off the hook). So far in my games I am generally right. So even if you don't see why I think something, from my experience when I'm town and I think a certain way for any reason, I follow it because it's usually in the ballpark.
2.) Actually when I'm scum, I'm usually very confident but play as my town!Comm active style to blend in. That was a legit time I had no damn clue on how to read the people. But now with more events going on, more flips, more wagons since those early stages (and fredericks' awful trolling), we got something for me to at least begin working with. Whether I'm right or not, we'll find out. Also the two are different. I went from quiet to active, he went from active to quiet. Even when he speaks now, it doesn't look like he's building anything on anyone. Sure he might hate me for scum reading him, but if indeed my scum read has no good case or any water. Why would you OMGUS me and draw attention to the case in general? If it is indeed bad or unsubstantial, one would think to ignore it. However, in my experience, usually the ones making a fuss about my cases (and trying to paint me as a bad player) end up being scum. Now, I'm not sure whether that will be accurate for every game as more people get use to me, but it seems like people are afraid of why I'm SR'ing them and want to change what it is they're doing. But usually my reads don't have one solid post to look at. I'd end up quoting every single of their posts to explain my reads.
3.) I'm fine with people being quiet. I have a hard time being quiet sometimes. But what I have a problem with in particular is Shinobi seems like one of the players that would make some good cases as town. Maybe I'm holding him to a bar for quality I shouldn't. But overall, it doesn't feel like he's put in effort like he would if he were a town player. Also while you're focusing solely on what I'm saying about Shinobi, you're being more defensive of Shinobi (a person who I ended up changing my vote from yesterday and am not even currently voting today). Yet nothing is really said on my PoE of Xay being scum.
@Everyone. I keep saying it and I'll say it again. I'll say it in every game people don't like my cases in. Don't like them? MAKE ONE. Stop being a leech. Here's what I can tell you. I'm trying to find scum. If you're town and not putting the effort in. I can promise you one of these other active players is scum. If they lead the lynch it's guaranteed to be a mislynch. Because they'd want to aim it away from themselves and their buddies. Now I know you can't just take my word for it, but this game I am green and am actually trying to find scum. If you don't got a case to bring up, but disagree with mine, then what do you want me to do? Make better ones for all of you? I can't do that burden. Because scum are still going to try and discredit me if I am correct in any of my hunches or assumptions. If you keep wanting better cases but don't put your own foot forward, those cases aren't going to happen. Think I'm wrong in something I say? Point to some evidence that contradicts what I say. Maybe I overlooked something or my memory put something there that really isn't. But if you can't do either of those, why the hell would you scum read me for at least bloody trying to find scum. If my history of scum hunting is anything to go off of, it sure seems a lot better than most even if it's for some faulty reasoning or even plain old hunches. (Them hunches can be a plain bitch to scum when I end up being right).
I mean please. Make a case. Make a good one. Show me a good case that can be made this game. Stop relying on me if you're just going to disagree with me for everything I say. Because something else will happen, I'll get mislynched and people will brush it off as "he played badly/scummy". Yet no one else had the balls to put their foot in the door to say anything else nor will they if I ever hang this game. THAT I know from experience.- CommKnight
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Adding onto that. If I do hang this game, I want someone to seriously go over my cases with the knowledge I was looking for scum and continue my work. Chances are, if I was on the right track, I will get hanged for it. Because if I was wrong all the time, scum would just latch onto my cases and help me mislynch town all the time which would in turn get me mislynched if they could just point to my lead in all of them.
That's all I ask if I get mislynched this game, go back, try to figure out where my leads were taking me, and continue them.- CommKnight
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Honestly, this makes me want Xay dead even more. Focusing on my SR of Shinobi but ignoring my vote is still on Xay.In post 806, MMM wrote:VOTE: Shinobi after actually reading through 801
I still don't like 795 but we'll see where this wagon goes I guess
Here's my opinion: There's scum between MMM & Shinobi. One of them will be scum and one of them will be town by end-game. That I am almost certain of.- CommKnight
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Think about this: Why is MMM focusing on you rather than myself, Xay or even Xnad at this point? I mean hell he's not even voting in the pool of three which we suspect (and I am confident) that there's at least one scum in.In post 811, Shinobi wrote:
I'm assuming that this is an associative read of some sort?In post 809, CommKnight wrote:
Honestly, this makes me want Xay dead even more. Focusing on my SR of Shinobi but ignoring my vote is still on Xay.In post 806, MMM wrote:VOTE: Shinobi after actually reading through 801
I still don't like 795 but we'll see where this wagon goes I guess
Also, I'm starting to think xnad is scum.
If you're against voting in the pool of 3, then you must have a reason you believe all three to be town. Out of any other pool, this is the one we have the biggest chances of being correct and nabbing a kill on mafia.- CommKnight
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Really MMM? "assuming everyone who isn't blindly sheeping". Well Xnad isn't blindly sheeping and I don't see him as scum. In fact he's voting me and I think he's town. Aubrey isn't blindly sheeping me, I don't think he's scum. I'm still neutral-town on him but I think he'd flip green if we ever lynch him.
Boonskies isn't blindly following me even if he is voting. I don't think he's scum (nor did I think yesterday he was scum when he was gunning for me).
Actually the only people I really scum read are: Lowell, MMM, Shinobi and Xay. Obviously since there's only three scum, I am 100% wrong about at least one of those reads. Honestly I think Lowell might be green as my SR on him came mostly from early D1 when I was tying him and Fred together (who may I remind everyone has flipped green). So, I'm not entirely sure on Lowell anymore. My top three are MMM, Shinobi and Xay. Now I say one scum is between MMM and Shinobi. But the other will be town in my opinion. So even from my own thoughts I am wrong of most likely at least two people there. Which means I am TR'ing or am neutral on at least one scum. Which, I feel like I will find later on. However, right now, I think Xay will flip scum. I will hound Shinobi for something when he keeps calling my cases bad if he can't come up with anything better. But today I think Xay should be the lynch.
Now there's obviously more than 4 people who don't blindly follow me (and Lowell is even voting Xay if I remember correctly). So your bullshit comment on me being on a thin line can go out the window. I don't SR people for disagreeing with me. I SR people for being scummy as fuck even if I can't point to just a single post that represents them in my head.- CommKnight
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That's why I say it's one or the other. Either MMM or Shin is scum I think. But I feel pretty confident in Xay flipping scum from the ones who didn't vote.In post 825, Lowell wrote:
If you think MMM is derailing your Xay push to vote Shin, wouldn't that make MMM/Xay scum and Shin town? How would this explain Shin scum and MMM town?In post 809, CommKnight wrote:
Honestly, this makes me want Xay dead even more. Focusing on my SR of Shinobi but ignoring my vote is still on Xay.In post 806, MMM wrote:VOTE: Shinobi after actually reading through 801
I still don't like 795 but we'll see where this wagon goes I guess
Here's my opinion: There's scum between MMM & Shinobi. One of them will be scum and one of them will be town by end-game. That I am almost certain of.
Xay isn't comfortable voting in the pool, which I think is another point to add. Why not? All three scum being on Pyra would be kinda fucked up.
But if we had to lynch in the Pyra wagon, I'm feeling better about an MMM lynch over Shinobi.- CommKnight
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Not ignoring it, just don't think it's very likely.In post 835, Xayzeck wrote:
Are you ignoring why all 3 scum being on Pyra is not impossible, because it's been explained like 4 times already.In post 832, CommKnight wrote:Xay isn't comfortable voting in the pool, which I think is another point to add. Why not? All three scum being on Pyra would be kinda fucked up.- CommKnight
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Well interesting point on Creature, both him and fitz have not posted in nearly 4 days now. (Fitz V/LA ends today so we should see him tonight or tomorrow at the latest). However, Creature isn't on V/LA.
Anyway, so Creature is an interesting one that you are even looking at. I think he's town. He is trying to sort people (or maybe knows who everyone is already anyway). But a few posts from him in sorting myself even:
Spoiler:
Xay is one option, but I want to look at MMM now as well. He's raging over something and if he IS town he needs to be sorted as one, because right now I don't think he is.
I mean hell, his vote was a speedwagon vote... by his own admission. Honestly his read on both Pyra and now Xay are not genuine. Also lol trying to say Xnad, Shinobi and I are the scummiest people. I think I'd trust Aubrey's reads over MMM's even if he does end up being town. Because Aubrey seems to be better at analyzing than MMM.
So for now FOS MMM, consider my vote on him if a wagon does form. Because I would be fine with lynching Xay or MMM today.- CommKnight
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Oh sorry, it was Lowell. Which conveniently you voted for all three of us D1 and think you're right on all of them.In post 788, MMM wrote:obvtown
{Xnad, Aubrey}
{Xayzeck, Boonskiies}
{Creature, havingfitz}
{Lowell, CommKnight, Shinobi}
obvscum
No I'm not motivated to do much more/scumcasing people/bla. Not while there's nothing new to look over.
Now you're saying I'm covering for scum buddies (meaning Aubrey) who you have here on your "obtown" reads. LOL fuck outta here. If a wagon does form on you, I'm being the bloody hammer. So if you get to L1 I'm putting it in now my intent to hammer your scummy ass.- CommKnight
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TownIn post 875, havingfitz wrote:Comm...who do you suspect discounting your very flawed POE scenario.
<Boonskiies, havingfitz, Aubrey, XnadrojX>
<Lowell, Shinobi, Creature>
<MMM, Xayzeck>
Scum
@Fitz, remember our game together I TR'd Tywin all game. Well I do that a lot it seems when I'm town. End up townreading a single scum most of the game. So I'll say that I will look at my town reads when evidence presents itself. But I do feel confident that there's 2 scum in my SR's and Neutrals.
My thoughts are MMM and Shinobi being opposite alignments. Meaning one IS scum and the other is town. Honestly, I think Xay is scum but if the other town members want to check into someone else, we can. I think MMM then becomes my choice because he feels like raging scum lately who's lost his cool. But that isn't the main reason. He flip flopped votes all day 1.
However, now I'm curious to see who exactly he has voted... Just a moment.- CommKnight
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MMM voting: Pyra, CommKnight, Lowell, Frederick E Campell, Lowell, Shinobi, CommKnight, Shinobi, Pyra, Lowell, CommKnight, Shinobi, CommKnight,
So he's voted for 3 town players (including myself here because it's MY analysis) with 2 unknowns. So he hasn't scum hunted outside of 3 living people at the moment. I'd say with this amount of focus on us three, if he were to flip red, I'd put both Lowell and Shinobi in my town reads. This does not seem like a bussing vote from him. So for me, him flipping red would sort 2 people for me.
Now let's look at Xay: Pyra, Shinobi <- THAT'S IT. 2 votes... this entire game. Not only that but one was on town and the other was also on Shinobi (also conveniently one of MMM's suspects).
Two votes isn't much to go on, I can't even say Shinobi wouldn't be a bus because only voted him once and even unvoted after.
VOTE: MMM (My vote can still go to Xay, but I think MMM would sort people. I do believe both will flip red, just MMM's would be more informative).- CommKnight
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Why is he scum?In post 877, Shinobi wrote:Why is xnad town?
It's a read, not a confirmation. I will keep an eye on him, but let's say for a moment he's scum. Then there's 2 others out there for us to catch right now.
So what do you think of my thoughts on you and MMM being opposite factions but one scum in between both of you? Hell, what do you think of the idea of MMM being scum here?- CommKnight
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@Shinobi, I compiled his voting history by ISO'ing him and then ctrl+F with "Vote:" as the finder. He voted you 3 separate times so far. I would not say you two are scum buddies. You know I scum read you earlier but MMM and you with your interactions, I'd say that you can't BOTH be scum. Only one of you. He's being the scummiest of the two in my opinion and it seems like he's being avoided by most. Meanwhile I could rack up votes on you without too much resistance (I already did remember).In post 879, CommKnight wrote:MMM voting: Pyra, CommKnight, Lowell, Frederick E Campell, Lowell, Shinobi, CommKnight, Shinobi, Pyra, Lowell, CommKnight, Shinobi, CommKnight,
So in my opinion, MMM is definitely the way to go by now.
Also can you give me a clear quote of Xnad riding off of the MMM and me part? Or at least an area of posts for me to look at for reassessment? I do not mind rereading, but if I don't know what I'm looking for that you're seeing, I might not see it.- CommKnight
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Then consider MMM. At best he's scum, at worst, he's scummy as town who obviously is tunneling. Even his vote history shows him flip flopping between his 3 choices.In post 906, Lowell wrote:Is there a reason shin is off the block today? If Xay isn't happening I still don't want to see comm lynched.
Which by the way, yes, he was flip flopping. Look at it again, he went on the easiest wagons at the time.- CommKnight
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Day 1 Vote Counts
Spoiler:
Day 2 Vote Counts
Spoiler:
Scum Reads
Flipped Town/Me
Town Reads
Neutral
Also another post will be incoming with each player and possible associates based on votes. (I am never doing individual colour tags ever again for that many vote counts... jeebus... Took too much time.- CommKnight
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Below is each player and possible associates based on vote counts so far (if you have a question, make is specific so I can answer it without confusion). Total number of possible associates will be in ()'s
BoonskiiesMMM, havingfitz, Shinobi, XnadrojX, Creature (5)
LowellCommKnight, Shinobi, Aubrey, Creature (4)
MMMBoonskiies, havingfitz, Xayzeck, Aubrey, XnadrojX, Creature (6)
havingfitzBoonskiies, MMM, CommKnight, Shinobi, Xayzeck, Aubrey, XnadrojX (7)
CommKnightLowell, havingfitz, Aubrey (3)
ShinobiBoonskiies, havingfitz, XnadrojX, Creature (4)
XayzeckMMM, havingfitz, Aubrey, XnadrojX (4)
AubreyLowell, MMM, havingfitz, CommKnight, Xayzeck, Creature (6)
XnadrojXBoonskiies, MMM, havingfitz, Shinobi, Xayzeck, Creature (6)
CreatureBoonskiies, Lowell, MMM, Shinobi, Aubrey, XnadrojX (6)
- The above assumes scum buddies were never the first on their partner's wagon.
- The above excludes when they were at L3 and their buddies may then pile on.
- The above is not guaranteed, but may help find associates once we get a red flip.
- The above cannot take account for the goons voting for the traitor (but should account for traitor avoiding voting for the goons).
Now theoretically the above should not have someone on one's associates possible but not be on theirs. Also I know I can remove myself from those associates so for me, there's 1 less associate for each that has myself on it.
Currently under the circumstances it is my belief that if we get a red flip and refer back to this list, we can find at least one scum in the list. If they are the traitor then I'd say both scum are in the pool, otherwise... scum could have voted for traitor but will not have voted for their other partner. So the traitor is the only one who could mess up my list here.- CommKnight
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With 10 alive, the max associates in the above list is 9. I'd say with Fitz having the bigger "possibilities" is a sure sign of the scum going to try and buddy him. Which means that if he's town, the scum do not view his current reads as a threat.
There is 100% a scum between MMM, Aubrey, Xnad and Creature just due to the amount (barring my reads which I think MMM is scum).
If we could get a red flip between Lowell, Shinobi or Xay that would definitely make the pool limited and easier to find scum (but whether we lynch right is questionable).
Come at me scum, I dare you. I bet you're looking at that list and seeing your end is closer than you thought. Especially the traitor. The traitor should theoretically have both scum on his possibility list.- CommKnight
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He's either scum or bad at playing town currently. So if you believe he's town. The latter is true.In post 912, Aubrey wrote:I don't know how I feel about M being scum...
I mean hell, he's not bothering to understand my posts, so not like he is benefiting town any at the current moment. Instead of asking anything about the lists, he just makes fun of it. Not exactly a town motivated response and not a person that I am going to bother dealing with any longer. He is not serving town interest and by that, must therefore be working against town. I've let scum push on me before with similar trolling shit. Not anymore. He hangs.
Honestly it's gone on long enough and I'm at the point I don't even care if he flips town. He's a negative to town at the moment and would be best dead today.- CommKnight
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@Fitz, I gotta get ready for work, short shift tonight so about 6 hours till I'll be able to reply. But I'll answer your post in a break down of parts when I return. For now, just remember, reads change. just because I TR or SR someone early on does not mean I'll always TR/SR them. That is absurd to assume that and as town you should hope I'm not THAT tunnel-y.- CommKnight
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Real Time: Over 1000 easily.In post 922, Shinobi wrote:Comm how many games of mafia have you played total, both on and offsite?
Forum on site: 9.5 (Can't discuss the .5 till after it finishes).
Forum off site: About 40-50
Games modded: 25-30
Out of all of those games. Almost every single time, I get called bad town or bad logic. But the ones who ended up being with people I've played with multiple times finally ended up listening to me (and in some cases when I end up being mafia get themselves killed) and catching scum.
If there's one thing I can say about my forum mafia experience over all my games. Is that I've come up with some fucked up theories/claims/etc that have scored the win for town in the end (and usually kept me one-two votes from hanging more than a few times). I can also say with confidence, in games where I've been lynched and flip town, when no one goes back to check who I was suspicious of, they never ended up catching them in time. THAT I can say with 100% confidence. Every time I flip town and town does not reread what I've looked at/said/done. They've lost. (Which even to me is crazy because you know, I expect the scum to fool me enough once in a while that I'm completely wrong, but usually I'm wrong about 1-2 people, but got at least one scum (usually more) in my cross hairs). I know that sounds like tooting my own horn, but I don't think I've ever once been in a situation where town ignores me completely when I flip town and they've won. Not once.
Anyway, probably more info than you wanted. But I do want, in the chance I'm mislynched or killed tonight, that town review my train of thought and actually try to sort the people I was suspicious of. Because when you do see I'm town, then you'll know there's obviously a reason I'm suspicious of somebody or thinking a certain way. Even if you disagree with the case I have or my thought process, do not ignore what I say if I'm flipped as if I was not onto anything. That will be a sure way to miss scum again tomorrow.- CommKnight
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(I haven't forgotten about the post I promised to reply to. Just a bit of a busy night since I got home so things are coming a bit slow. I'll get to it before bed, that is a promise).
Now this is hilarious. You also have every reason to lie as scum. So... they cancel each other out.In post 932, MMM wrote:I have no reason to lie as town - that includes lying by omission.
Perhaps I'm a bit too confident, I mean I'm pretty damn certain if you gave me a vig ability in place of the town lynch and were able to keep me alive so instead of lynching each day I could shoot who *I* think is scum. Then in my opinion, we'd win, hands down, as town.
Also anyone have a problem with my associations list, go ahead and explain. But end game, if I can take the mafia traitor player, line him up to that list and see both of the other scum on it. Then ya'll gotta admit I at least know a thing or two about what I'm talking about even if at the time it doesn't make sense. (Sometimes it makes little sense to me, but experience dictates that if I think something someway, I better damn well say it while I have the chance because there's something right/not right about something that I'm speaking for/against). - CommKnight
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