playing as Town: when NOT to reevaluate.

[VysePresident]

I tend to work from the idea of forming a stable position in the game.

I frequently adjust and even re-evaluate key parts of the game, but the trick is to consider what is most likely just paranoia and what is a true read with substance to it.

It helps that the way I read people almost necessarily allows for a million branching paths, and coalesces from there.

[VysePresident]

"Is this valid, or me bullshitting?"

I think scum!lycan only knows how to spew bullshit and scum!lycan is fully aware of why it's bullshit. Town!lycan never has to resort to it, so I don't ever worry about this.

I'd argue that the difference is that Scum already know that what they're saying is BS.

Townies have to figure it out the hard way.

Every game.

[VysePresident]

@mastina,

My problem is more viewing things in the angle that my previous Scum read is Town. I don't want to be wrong so I try to view it from a different angle. Sadly, this is actually counter-effective. What I try to do with my Scum reads (possibly incorrectly) is view them asking myself "could this come from Town?" Obviously, its apparent this is not working for me. My fear in this is lynching a Townie, ofc obviously. At what point, or rather, to what perspective should I be viewing players instead?

The problem is, you can't know without reviewing.

The only real answer I can give you is to understand the comparative strength of your reads. (After trimming out feelings and quirks you might think are just paranoia and/or BS.) There are nearly an infinite numbers of 'paths' that could explain any single action. The trick to making it useful is to learn how to recognize which reads of yours are more trustworthy than others.

That's what I mean when I say to form a 'base'. I try find something in the game that I can solve easily, be it a scum read, or a town read, or really anything alignment indicative. I then use this piece as a means to better understand the game. I often double check this 'base', but as long as it seems reasonable, I keep returning to it. It's only when my understanding of the game is obviously screwed up (I.e. I'm Townreading everyone at the end of the game.) that I know at least one of my major premises is wrong and needs adjusting.

The short of it is to start open-minded, and then coalesce slowly. You've always impressed me with how powerful your intuition is, but back when I had time to play, you always got carried out to sea by it. You never really had any set bearings - which is how in that one Midnight Sun game, you nailed Soren perfectly in his first post, but got distracted in short order. (Ironically, we ended up arguing over which scumread to lynch when we were both correct, if I remember right. XD)

You need something to anchor yourself to, basically. Mastin's 'Probabilities vs. Possibilities' is a pretty rule of thumb, really. The rest should be reviewed constantly.

This has been your 4 AM VyseRant.