playing as Town: when NOT to reevaluate.

[LicketyQuickety]

Have you ever been really sure someone is Scum (correctly) and then just completely reevaluated them to a Town read? I have many many times.

My question is asking for what other experienced players methods are for finding Scum and sticking to their read on them.

Part of what makes this difficult is that I DO actually have the ability to poke holes in just about everything. So its not like I am not able to find Scum, because I am. My problem comes in knowing what info to rely on to be more valid in terms of knowing that thing I was poking at actually means they are Scum.

Example:

I was able to play in the Mafia Championships game. sometime near halfway through D1 I made a reads list with all three Scum in by bottom 4:

http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... ost1195115

Then later in the day I reevaluated this list and my second list was nothing like this.

Another example from that same game:

http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... ost1202184

This is a case I made on a Scum who made it to F3. I changed the read later to him being a Town read.

Why do I do this and what is the trick to sticking to a solid Scum read?

Note: this is a discussion prolly not suited to people who don't know what looks Scummy and what doesn't.

[LicketyQuickety]

I usually don't change scum reads to town without a really good reason to do so.

I understand what you are saying here. I need to know HOW to do that not what to do.

[LicketyQuickety]

A lot of it is thinking through what made you re-evaluate and how valid that was. Sometimes someone is scum but playing a villagery game, and re-evaluating was fair, and they just played well and you were wrong. Sometimes you're manipulated into re-evaluating. etc etc

Wise words.

It's basically just the same as getting better at scumhunting in general. Sometimes an early scumread will start doing things that are legitimately unlikely to come from them as scum. Reevaluating in light of things like that is good. It can help to be very vocal about reads that you're flipping on, because other players can comment on whether the new information you see is really worth discounting previous scummy actions. Ask yourself if the player in question would have done what they did as scum with the knowledge that you were scumreading then, because they thought it could change your read on them. Always try to figure out motivations behind actions.

Agreed. I think (as I saw in another thread) sometimes you might want to bounce off your reads off someone else ITT and share how you are reevaluating the slot. Even if they are Scum they might point you in the right direction if you are both coming at things from a logical standpoint. *shrug*

[LicketyQuickety]

@mastina,

My problem is more viewing things in the angle that my previous Scum read is Town. I don't want to be wrong so I try to view it from a different angle. Sadly, this is actually counter-effective. What I try to do with my Scum reads (possibly incorrectly) is view them asking myself "could this come from Town?" Obviously, its apparent this is not working for me. My fear in this is lynching a Townie, ofc obviously. At what point, or rather, to what perspective should I be viewing players instead?

[LicketyQuickety]

@mastina,

My problem is more viewing things in the angle that my previous Scum read is Town. I don't want to be wrong so I try to view it from a different angle. Sadly, this is actually counter-effective. What I try to do with my Scum reads (possibly incorrectly) is view them asking myself "could this come from Town?" Obviously, its apparent this is not working for me. My fear in this is lynching a Townie, ofc obviously. At what point, or rather, to what perspective should I be viewing players instead?

The problem is, you can't know without reviewing.

The only real answer I can give you is to understand the comparative strength of your reads. (After trimming out feelings and quirks you might think are just paranoia and/or BS.) There are nearly an infinite numbers of 'paths' that could explain any single action. The trick to making it useful is to learn how to recognize which reads of yours are more trustworthy than others.

That's what I mean when I say to form a 'base'. I try find something in the game that I can solve easily, be it a scum read, or a town read, or really anything alignment indicative. I then use this piece as a means to better understand the game. I often double check this 'base', but as long as it seems reasonable, I keep returning to it. It's only when my understanding of the game is obviously screwed up (I.e. I'm Townreading everyone at the end of the game.) that I know at least one of my major premises is wrong and needs adjusting.

The short of it is to start open-minded, and then coalesce slowly. You've always impressed me with how powerful your intuition is, but back when I had time to play, you always got carried out to sea by it. You never really had any set bearings - which is how in that one Midnight Sun game, you nailed Soren perfectly in his first post, but got distracted in short order. (Ironically, we ended up arguing over which scumread to lynch when we were both correct, if I remember right. XD)

You need something to anchor yourself to, basically. Mastin's 'Probabilities vs. Possibilities' is a pretty rule of thumb, really. The rest should be reviewed constantly.

This has been your 4 AM VyseRant.

Thanks, I think you nailed this one right on its head. Its true, I do have a pretty powerful intuition, and its true I get carried away by it. You are right, the trick is seeing what is most likely as opposed to simply making an elaborate read that may or may not be true. I am going to experiment a bit with the idea of playing a bit more careful and not changing my mind on a whim. Basically I just want to learn how to not change my mind unless I have a solid reason for it. Some people do not have the intuition I have and can't make as good of reads as I can, but they are better players than I am simply because they are more grounded and can use more info ITT to make a more informed read. I have to work on this.

[LicketyQuickety]

I actually think this has to do with the fact that my brain works differently than other people. I don't think the same way as other people and that is fact. I have been diagnosed with a serious mental illness. Naturally, its reasonable for me to question myself because of this.

This isn't the same thing as what mastina is talking about. I literally do not know how to prioritize information. Everything seems equally likely to me.

[LicketyQuickety]

Who fucking knows, honestly.

I am a complicated mess. That is my type.

[LicketyQuickety]

@mastina,

My problem is more viewing things in the angle that my previous Scum read is Town. I don't want to be wrong so I try to view it from a different angle. Sadly, this is actually counter-effective. What I try to do with my Scum reads (possibly incorrectly) is view them asking myself "could this come from Town?" Obviously, its apparent this is not working for me. My fear in this is lynching a Townie, ofc obviously. At what point, or rather, to what perspective should I be viewing players instead?

Going at scumhunting with the approach of being afraid of lynching a townie is the wrong way to go about things. What you want to do is look for what lynch is your best shot at hitting scum. Look at your reasoning and your lynch targets and then see what your hit rate is like. You're never going to be right 100% of the time, but hopefully you're right a good amount of the time.

I originally wanted to just write this comment off as basic shit I already know, but that was because its kinda a sensitive issue for me. After rereading this comment I see how it fits and though it appears obvious, this is because it is logical and hence makes sense. Thanks.