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This forum is for discussion related to the game.
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Post Post #300 (ISO) » Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:50 pm

Post by Ythan »

In post 299, T S O wrote:You need to be aware that sometimes you're wrong, and you need to doubt yourself less.
Some good advice right here.
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Post Post #301 (ISO) » Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:56 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

you're not mastin, you're erik von markovik
green shirt thursdays
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Post Post #302 (ISO) » Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:57 am

Post by Ythan »

Criss Angel as a pickup artist, awesome.
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Post Post #303 (ISO) » Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:00 am

Post by T S O »

Anyone else for advice?
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #304 (ISO) » Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:04 am

Post by Jake from State Farm »

Sup
Robbed of a scummy for what had to be the best unvote in mafiascum history.

I will eliminate anyone D1, yes even myself. I also won't be asking for claims, nor will I be believing any, especially with the uptick in townies fake claiming. If I can get limmed as an unclaimed PR, so can you :D
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Post Post #305 (ISO) » Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:26 am

Post by Cheetory6 »

I'm in desperate need of advice.
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Post Post #306 (ISO) » Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:20 am

Post by Jake from State Farm »

You can do him first, I'm probably beyond help anyway
Robbed of a scummy for what had to be the best unvote in mafiascum history.

I will eliminate anyone D1, yes even myself. I also won't be asking for claims, nor will I be believing any, especially with the uptick in townies fake claiming. If I can get limmed as an unclaimed PR, so can you :D
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Post Post #307 (ISO) » Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:23 am

Post by T S O »

Advice shall be granted. Speak now.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #308 (ISO) » Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:57 pm

Post by Jake from State Farm »

I'd like advice on how to improve, please

Thank you
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I will eliminate anyone D1, yes even myself. I also won't be asking for claims, nor will I be believing any, especially with the uptick in townies fake claiming. If I can get limmed as an unclaimed PR, so can you :D
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Post Post #309 (ISO) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:10 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

do me next, TSO
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Post Post #310 (ISO) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:40 am

Post by T S O »

In post 308, Jake from State Farm wrote:I'd like advice on how to improve, please

Thank you


What specifically is your problem? Towngame, scumgame, scumhunting? I'm not omniscient, Jake. I just seem like it.

In post 309, Untrod Tripod wrote:do me next, TSO


I think what ails you is your secret desire to create a Wild West-style unmoderated wasteland where all can run free, and frolic in the piranha-infested waters. Much as you wanted to, you feel held down, chained by your fellow moderators. Your subconscious has even created a name for this bastion of liberty. It's screaming out to me. The same words, over and over. "FORUM 26, FORUM 26."

That, or you need to improve your Tinder game by bombarding women with dick pics immediately upon match.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #311 (ISO) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:46 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

how's that going to help my mafia game though
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Post Post #312 (ISO) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:49 am

Post by Davsto »

In post 310, T S O wrote:bombarding women with dick pics immediately upon match.

Damn, that's what I was missing, thanks for the indirect advice!

Now, I just need to find somewhere I can get a nice variety of pictures of King Richard III... obviously the best dick...
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Post Post #313 (ISO) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:55 am

Post by T S O »

Well, it's kinda difficult to produce a panacea for every ailment there is. Could you be slightly more specific, UT?

Davsto - a pleasure.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #314 (ISO) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:57 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

my town game has gotten really weak lately
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Post Post #315 (ISO) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 9:30 am

Post by Jake from State Farm »

In post 310, T S O wrote:What specifically is your problem? Towngame, scumgame, scumhunting? I'm not omniscient, Jake. I just seem like it.

I play well imo, meaning people usually do good at reading me as town and I feel they can't read me as scum but I have trouble convincing people to lynch the person I feel is scum especially when I put together a case I feel is good. I also have trouble changing my focus when people don't make good cases.
Robbed of a scummy for what had to be the best unvote in mafiascum history.

I will eliminate anyone D1, yes even myself. I also won't be asking for claims, nor will I be believing any, especially with the uptick in townies fake claiming. If I can get limmed as an unclaimed PR, so can you :D
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Post Post #316 (ISO) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 9:58 am

Post by PhantomCobalt »

@Tso pls
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Post Post #317 (ISO) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:00 am

Post by Jake from State Farm »

I have advice but cant give it right now.
Robbed of a scummy for what had to be the best unvote in mafiascum history.

I will eliminate anyone D1, yes even myself. I also won't be asking for claims, nor will I be believing any, especially with the uptick in townies fake claiming. If I can get limmed as an unclaimed PR, so can you :D
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Post Post #318 (ISO) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:18 pm

Post by T S O »

In post 315, Jake from State Farm wrote:
In post 310, T S O wrote:What specifically is your problem? Towngame, scumgame, scumhunting? I'm not omniscient, Jake. I just seem like it.

I play well imo, meaning people usually do good at reading me as town and I feel they can't read me as scum but I have trouble convincing people to lynch the person I feel is scum especially when I put together a case I feel is good. I also have trouble changing my focus when people don't make good cases.


So, the issue isn't finding scum, it's convincing others that you have. It's likely a charisma issue, then.

How do you go about convincing people to vote your suspect? 90% of the time, hanging your case out there isn't going to get you anywhere near a lynch, at least not by itself. If you complain that nobody's voting the obvious scum after you've made your great case, people are likely to become even more resistant. It can get to the stage where people may wilfully not vote your suspect, simply because it's you pushing it. Cases are as much about how you push them, and people's perceptions of you, than the actual content within them.

You have to try to cajole people into voting. You're the catalyst for success here - if you do nothing, town are just going to trip over their own incompetency and lose, so you have to be actively pushing your own plans and scumreads constantly. If you can, picking up powerful allies is a great way to go about it. If nobody is going for your case, you should explain why the case they
are
going for is bad. You can straddle the line between honesty and dishonesty in your appraisal of these other cases - you might be lying, but it's all for the greater good, so feel no guilt.

Getting into an argument with your suspect is likely to do no good, unless the points are close to irrefutable, and allows them to throw up a smokescreen. At least one person will dismiss the argument as TvT if you do this. If they start pushing you as scum, don't waste time defending yourself - you need to continue your push. If you really have to respond, be as succinct and cutting about it as you can. And above all, don't show doubt. People trust confidence. Inside, even the best players have occasional doubts about the scumreads they're pushing, but your case dies when you yourself publicly lose faith in it.
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Post Post #319 (ISO) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:19 pm

Post by T S O »

With regard to your second point - you shouldn't feel guilty for other people lacking communication skills.

My troll takeover of mastin's thread suddenly became serious. Huh.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #320 (ISO) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 5:29 pm

Post by tn5421 »

I would like some general mafia advice about keeping myself invested in the game as the game goes on. I find that I'm really present, active, and working towards town's benefit on day one and then peter out slowly as any alignment. I'm not sure what it is that I'm doing wrong so if you could check out my last 2-3 games, that would be awesome.

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Post Post #321 (ISO) » Tue Jun 27, 2017 11:15 am

Post by mastina »

I don't feel like spamming Mafia Discussion with 50 threads of articles I'm writing (since I'm doing a lot of mafia theory work), so smaller ones like this one will go in here.

Everything Is WIFOM

An answer to a buzzword.

Everyone knows what WIFOM is, right? "Scum wouldn't do that because that's what they
want
you to think!" Simultaneously, it is a logical fallacy--something to which a player can correctly call bullshit on--and yet also a buzzword, something which is an overused easy accusation to make against almost any argument. These two ideas exist in conflict, so which one can you trust to be accurate? Is WIFOM a legitimate accusation, or is WIFOM a ridiculous defense attempting to shut down a perfectly-reasonable view?

...As it turns out, the answer is both.

The reason for this is that the game of mafia in of itself is at its core a game of wifom.
Every
action in a game, you play the wifom game
. "That post looks like it was made by town. The question is, was it made by scum who
wanted
it to look like town, or is it actually town?" "That post looks like it was made by scum. The question is, was it made by scum who couldn't help but make a scummy post, made by scummy town, or made by scum who wants us to think it's too scummy to be scum?" "That nightkill obviously incriminates this player. The question is, was it done by scum wanting to frame that player, or is that player simply scum?"

Each and every one of those can enter into a never-ending loop. "Scum could make this town-looking post and expect to be townread. But maybe they would expect us to think this, so they wouldn't make it if they were actually scum. But maybe that's what they WANT us to think, so they would make it." "Scum could make this scum-looking post. But maybe they knew that and wouldn't make it, thus it must be town. But maybe they
would
make it, relying on us thinking that." "This player is incriminated by the nightkill. But maybe that's what scum want us to think. Yet maybe because scum know we'd think that, they would do it anyway." And so on and so forth.

You can make anything into a wifom argument. Does this mean that WIFOM is inherently useless? Not necessarily. But for me, I separate WIFOM out into "good wifom" and "bad wifom". Good WIFOM is
thinking critically about the circumstances to figure out which action in the situation is more likely to apply
. An easy way to think about this is to look at the player(s) in question; does it look like they are actively trying to manipulate thoughts into one half in particular of the wifom argument, especially if that half is the one less likely to be by default true?

Bad WIFOM is
violating Ockham's Razor to dismiss an argument because scum COULD do something, ignoring whether they
would
.

Perhaps an easy way of comparing bad wifom versus good wifom is to look at the classical example of a criminal being chased by a cop. The criminal has a choice in paths between a dark alleyway where they have a 50% chance of escape and a lit passage where they will 100% be caught. If the cop chooses wrong, the criminal escapes. Good wifom would work by critically analyzing what the panicked crook is likely to think of in the heat of the situation.

Is it more likely for the crook to think, "Oh! Light! I should go that way in spite of it being more of a risk, because the cop will think I'll go into the dark and that means I can get a clean getaway!"
...Or is it more likely for the crook to think, "Oh! Darkness! Safety! If I go into the dark, then the cop won't be able to reliably pinpoint me!"

The answer in most situations will be the latter, because it is simpler and more primal. Most criminals are not masterminds who think of complicated, contrived plots which twist the boundaries of logic. They are driven by the easiest, most direct path. Bad wifom in that situation could be assuming the criminal will go into light to mess with probability, but in my experience is actually more something akin to, "I can't know which way the crook went, so I might as well not try": the cop stopping and deciding not to even bother.

It's impossible to not play the wifom game because
everything you evaluate is off of assumptions
. You assume players are confirmed town. You assume events happen in certain ways. You assume motives behind actions. You assume certain things to be true, and others to not be true. Even after a player's alignment has flipped, you still make assumptions. You assume that town players flipped told the truth unless you have evidence to the contrary, and if you have that evidence to the contrary, everything said evidence means is an assumption on your part. You assume mafia mostly lie but with some inherent element of truth.

And when assumptions are present, interpretation enters the equation. With interpretation present, alternative interpretations are possible. With alternative interpretations possible, guesses as to what scum did and are doing must be made. And with guesswork comes the "what it means" and "what to do" elements of wifom. Because of situation A, scum have choice B. Choice B leads to either C or D. And therefore, we must figure out whether it is C or D we're dealing with.

If someone is making an argument that C is the logical choice but because of weird reasoning E the scum chose D, they are employing bad wifom, the logical fallacy. If someone is making an argument that because both C and D are possible, situation A cannot be analyzed, they are using bad wifom in the form of wifom as a buzzword. But if someone is making an argument weighing the pros and cons of C and D and explains why they think C is overwhelmingly the more likely of the two, that is good wifom, and thus, not something to be ignored.

In summary:
Because everything
could
be done by scum, the job of a town player is to figure out what the scum
did
do and
why
they did it.

See Also:
Let's talk about WIFOM, an older article following a similar principle to what I've outlined here.
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Post Post #322 (ISO) » Wed Jun 28, 2017 12:39 pm

Post by mastina »

Risk-Reward Analysis

What to do and NOT do.

This is a subject that I've been wanting to talk about for quite a long while, because running risk-reward analysis is a fundamental piece of my game as both alignments. Everything I do is a calculated risk, with a clear idea of what I will gain. Yet when I look at the stunts other players pull, it becomes obvious that they either have no understanding of the concept at all, or if they do, an incredibly poor grasp of what that
really
means.

This is not a guide specifically on how to (not) gambit, although gambits make up the vast majority of my risk-reward analysis. Instead, this is a nifty little guide I've made which works well in conjunction with my prior lecture on WIFOM, because it covers much the same subject matter: understanding the players in your game, and crafting your play appropriately to the circumstances at hand.
Inherent in risk-reward analysis is a necessity in accurately pinpointing the driving factors behind the game
. This is what I dub situational awareness: knowing the gamestate, knowing the players, and knowing your relationship to those two variables and how it will change.

In here, I will cover three aspects of risk-reward analysis:
  1. How to use it as scum
  2. How to use it as town
  3. How to analyze OTHERS using it and evaluate them.
Let's start with the first.

Manipulating The Gamestate:

The art of scumplay is driven by a few simple factors.
Know what you are aiming for.
In this case, quite simply, you're aiming to achieve the scum wincon. Thus, your goal is to seek the fastest, easiest route to controlling 50% of the town. This is why bussing with reckless abandon is so stupendously stupid--you are delaying your goal (making it take longer), while also making it harder to achieve (making it less likely to happen). Of course, that doesn't mean you
can't
bus, nor that you can't distance. (In fact I heavily encourage distancing and even voting your scumbuddies...just don't let them get lynched from it. And, yes. You can prevent them from being lynched even when pushing them as scum, through diversionary tactics.)

So the first thing you need to do is
establish your endgame early
. From day one, you should already have plotted a course where you have a fair idea of your lylo composition and how you will get there.
Yes
, this will change. But you should know who you're going to lynch and who you're going to nightkill, not just for the CURRENT phase, but with an outline for ALL phases.
Think to the endgame with every move you make
. You need to do this, because the question you are asking is: "
Does this get me closer to my desired outcome?
" If the answer isn't reliably yes...don't do it!

You can subdivide this into a few basic ideas: how you post, who you push, what you intend to roleclaim, and who you want to use your scum-given abilities on. However, they all rely on that same methodology, and that is answering two basic questions in tandem:
"What is the risk this course of action carries? What is the reward this course can give?"


That being,
what consequences exist to failure
, and
what will be achieved with success
.

You must
think critically and honestly
at all times. You can't do something just because it feels like it "should" be done. You can't do something just because it feels obligatory.
At all times, ask yourself: "Is it worth it?"


By following this principle, you can make smart, calculated maneuvers. You may make missteps, and that's okay. You're not omniscient. You can't know everything and you can't perfectly predict the courses of action to come. However, you can still reasonably guess at probable outcomes.

Minimize the outcomes where there is little gain; maximize the outcomes where there is much to gain
. Low-risk, high-reward. You'll want to avoid at all costs low-reward (unless there's literally no risk); you'll generally want to avoid high-risk ploys unless you've got a lock-solid plan in place for the ploy to hand you the win which can't be reasonably disrupted.

Most of these things, you can do in the shadows. You don't need to push through every mislynch. You don't need to bus. You don't need to avoid killing power roles; you don't need to focus entirely on power roles. You have a great amount of freedom in movement. Simply point the town in a direction where town after town will die.

When To Lie:

The answer as town can be summed up as...don't. 90% of the time, be it lie about a read or lie about a role...it's simply not worth it. You're going to do more harm than good with your stunt. However, there are certain circumstances where it may be acceptable to pull a ploy off. An easy one to think of is the macho<->bulletproof switch, claiming one as the other. But more on that in a moment.

Always have a clear idea of what is actually effective
. This is why just going loldaykill is so utterly worthless and even detrimental: it's a waste of space because you're not fooling anyone. If you think you are, then I suppose you have...if you count yourself, because literally everyone will see through the stunt. It makes people roll their eyes in a way which you can't get alignment information from. They know how this shit works, and have a stance off of it based on their personality...not alignment.

Always pay attention to the circumstances of what made a gambit effective
. So you saw someone fakeclaim in this amazing stunt which helped seal the town's victory! Great! Then you try to do it yourself and you find..."what the fuck, it worked for them, why didn't it work for me?!?" Your answer: they knew what they were doing and had molded their gambit to the gamestate to ensure it would succeed. You just did it because you thought it was fun/cool without regard to this. That is why they succeeded and you did not.

Know exactly what it is you are aiming to gain
. If you don't know what the point of the gambit is, then you're not going to get anything out of it. You have to have a clear, established idea for every possible outcome, and what
exactly
you gain from each and every one of them.

Know when to end a gambit and how to explain your motivation
. If your motivation is "because it was fun", expect people to go, "uh huh", roll their eyes, maybe blacklist you, maybe lynch you, almost certainly ignore you, and not take you seriously in any aspect of your play. So I suppose if you're content being utterly ignored that's an okay position to be in, but otherwise...best not to.

Ask what your gambit achieves
. Does it actually do anything? If it does, then you need to ask if this thing can/could negatively impact the town. If it doesn't, then you shouldn't be pulling the stunt in the first place because it'd be a waste of space. Gambits ALWAYS should have an impact on the gamestate. If yours does not, then it is a failure.

Ask whether your gambit furthers your agenda
. Your agenda as town is establishing accurate reads and lynching scum. It is true that a gambit can be good while not directly fulfilling this objective (for instance, macho-bp switch), but most successful gambits DO. They make scum easier to eliminate.

Know the consequences of your gambit
. Every possible outcome of the gambit should be weighed--including the less successful ones. If you're not aware of what negative effects can happen when you run a gambit...don't run that gambit!

Be honest with yourself and critically analyze
. If you're not able to have the intellectual honesty to realize any of the above, then you absolutely shouldn't be running a full-blown gambit. Know your limits.

Tell as few lies as possible
. The best gambits are the ones which heavily utilize the truth: a twist on the actual role which is not harmful to have altered in the way you did. Claiming two-shot when you're either one-shot (draw a nightkill after outing your result) or three-shot (avoid a nightkill after outing two results) can be conductive, as long as immediately following you out your real role and explain why.

Gambits should always gain more than they lose
. So when you think about the rewards, also think about the risk. You can't think, "this might vaguely help" when fakeclaiming an innocent result, because you also know (if you're being intellectually honest with yourself) "this could cause significant harm".

Successful gambits are largely self-evident
. You might need to explain your motives anyway, but the results of a good gambit often speak for themselves without you needing to. Think "automatically displayed with a flip", or "can be shown by quickly outing results" as self-evident. Not, "look at that reaction to my obviously fake dayvig, must be scum".

Gambits should be used sparsely
. If you gambit every game it aint gonna work. If you gambit almost every game it aint gonna work. If you gambit in so much as a third of your games it's probably
still
not going to work. If you pull two gambits in a single game it will basically NEVER work. For gambiting to work,
you absolutely
must
foster an environment where it is believable
. And if you're known to be a frequent liar, then unsurprisingly, people will see through you when you pull a stunt again.

Don't put too much stock into your gambit
. You should always have a play-based/role-based backup to a gambit which can (and should) supersede your gambit should you not obtain your desired results. Never rely on a gambit to give you something;
you should already have something
without
the need to gambit
.

These things are why most gambits don't work out. You need to know that a failed gambit can be costly, and that just because you think a gambit is good does not mean it will go as you fantasized in your head. Unless you can be sure you have crafted something where the cost < benefits, you cannot safely pull off a gambit. They are best used sparsely for good reason. Oversaturation of gambits devalues the good ones and makes it harder to do some genuinely good scumhunting. If people have shown focus on your shitty gambit, that's time focusing on something not scumhunting.

Analyzing Using Risk-Reward:

This is rather comparably easy especially when you combine the tips from above. The main thing you're looking for?
Ask what is gained and what is lost
. This is above all else the golden rule, and it doesn't just apply to gambits. It applies universally to
all
aspects of scumhunting, and is what I mean when I say to crossreference this with my prior lecture about things being WIFOM.

Do probability analysis: ask what is more likely in the given situation
. What is more likely to be the case? What makes more sense? What, with everything you know, is the more logical, reasonable conclusion to reach? This is essential in risk-reward analysis.

Get inside the head of players
. You need to be thinking like the player you're analyzing. Given who they are, which thoughts are more likely to surface? What plans are they more likely to cook up? What courses of actions are more likely to be taken?

Because scum can do anything, weigh what scum gain the most FROM doing
. You want to ask the question scum should ask themselves:
"What is the innate risk a scum player takes with this? What is the potential reward from this?" The action with the lowest risk and the highest reward is often the correct path, as scum should be taking the simplest, most direct route to victory.

Don't think scum can't do something/town must do something/etc.
Instead, ask what is gained as
both
alignments. And from that, knowing what is gained from the action and lost from the action, ask
which alignment does the action benefit more
. The answer could be "neither" (it's not alignment indicative), but you should absolutely not blindly assume one over the other; think about it first.

This is a thing. You need to know the difference between what is a
possible
scum/town action (literally everything), and what is a
probable
scum/town action (what you need to figure out). There's no universal standard on these, because they are gamestate dependent.
Use situational awareness to figure out what, in the
current
conditions, makes a player more likely one alignment specifically
.

These tips are probably incomplete so I may need to revise this at a later time, but this should at least get people started.
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Cabd
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Post Post #323 (ISO) » Wed Jun 28, 2017 1:16 pm

Post by Cabd »

Ooh ooh you can totes mcgoats link to my Gambits as bad and good examples too.
Not actively playing for a while. I mod newbies though~!
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Post Post #324 (ISO) » Wed Jun 28, 2017 2:16 pm

Post by GuyInFreezer »

In post 322, mastina wrote:
Risk-Reward Analysis

What to do and NOT do.

This is a subject that I've been wanting to talk about for quite a long while, because running risk-reward analysis is a fundamental piece of my game as both alignments. Everything I do is a calculated risk, with a clear idea of what I will gain. Yet when I look at the stunts other players pull, it becomes obvious that they either have no understanding of the concept at all, or if they do, an incredibly poor grasp of what that
really
means.

This is not a guide specifically on how to (not) gambit, although gambits make up the vast majority of my risk-reward analysis. Instead, this is a nifty little guide I've made which works well in conjunction with my prior lecture on WIFOM, because it covers much the same subject matter: understanding the players in your game, and crafting your play appropriately to the circumstances at hand.
Inherent in risk-reward analysis is a necessity in accurately pinpointing the driving factors behind the game
. This is what I dub situational awareness: knowing the gamestate, knowing the players, and knowing your relationship to those two variables and how it will change.

In here, I will cover three aspects of risk-reward analysis:
  1. How to use it as scum
  2. How to use it as town
  3. How to analyze OTHERS using it and evaluate them.
Let's start with the first.

Manipulating The Gamestate:

The art of scumplay is driven by a few simple factors.
Know what you are aiming for.
In this case, quite simply, you're aiming to achieve the scum wincon. Thus, your goal is to seek the fastest, easiest route to controlling 50% of the town. This is why bussing with reckless abandon is so stupendously stupid--you are delaying your goal (making it take longer), while also making it harder to achieve (making it less likely to happen). Of course, that doesn't mean you
can't
bus, nor that you can't distance. (In fact I heavily encourage distancing and even voting your scumbuddies...just don't let them get lynched from it. And, yes. You can prevent them from being lynched even when pushing them as scum, through diversionary tactics.)

So the first thing you need to do is
establish your endgame early
. From day one, you should already have plotted a course where you have a fair idea of your lylo composition and how you will get there.
Yes
, this will change. But you should know who you're going to lynch and who you're going to nightkill, not just for the CURRENT phase, but with an outline for ALL phases.
Think to the endgame with every move you make
. You need to do this, because the question you are asking is: "
Does this get me closer to my desired outcome?
" If the answer isn't reliably yes...don't do it!

You can subdivide this into a few basic ideas: how you post, who you push, what you intend to roleclaim, and who you want to use your scum-given abilities on. However, they all rely on that same methodology, and that is answering two basic questions in tandem:
"What is the risk this course of action carries? What is the reward this course can give?"


That being,
what consequences exist to failure
, and
what will be achieved with success
.

You must
think critically and honestly
at all times. You can't do something just because it feels like it "should" be done. You can't do something just because it feels obligatory.
At all times, ask yourself: "Is it worth it?"


By following this principle, you can make smart, calculated maneuvers. You may make missteps, and that's okay. You're not omniscient. You can't know everything and you can't perfectly predict the courses of action to come. However, you can still reasonably guess at probable outcomes.

Minimize the outcomes where there is little gain; maximize the outcomes where there is much to gain
. Low-risk, high-reward. You'll want to avoid at all costs low-reward (unless there's literally no risk); you'll generally want to avoid high-risk ploys unless you've got a lock-solid plan in place for the ploy to hand you the win which can't be reasonably disrupted.

Most of these things, you can do in the shadows. You don't need to push through every mislynch. You don't need to bus. You don't need to avoid killing power roles; you don't need to focus entirely on power roles. You have a great amount of freedom in movement. Simply point the town in a direction where town after town will die.

When To Lie:

The answer as town can be summed up as...don't. 90% of the time, be it lie about a read or lie about a role...it's simply not worth it. You're going to do more harm than good with your stunt. However, there are certain circumstances where it may be acceptable to pull a ploy off. An easy one to think of is the macho<->bulletproof switch, claiming one as the other. But more on that in a moment.

Always have a clear idea of what is actually effective
. This is why just going loldaykill is so utterly worthless and even detrimental: it's a waste of space because you're not fooling anyone. If you think you are, then I suppose you have...if you count yourself, because literally everyone will see through the stunt. It makes people roll their eyes in a way which you can't get alignment information from. They know how this shit works, and have a stance off of it based on their personality...not alignment.

Always pay attention to the circumstances of what made a gambit effective
. So you saw someone fakeclaim in this amazing stunt which helped seal the town's victory! Great! Then you try to do it yourself and you find..."what the fuck, it worked for them, why didn't it work for me?!?" Your answer: they knew what they were doing and had molded their gambit to the gamestate to ensure it would succeed. You just did it because you thought it was fun/cool without regard to this. That is why they succeeded and you did not.

Know exactly what it is you are aiming to gain
. If you don't know what the point of the gambit is, then you're not going to get anything out of it. You have to have a clear, established idea for every possible outcome, and what
exactly
you gain from each and every one of them.

Know when to end a gambit and how to explain your motivation
. If your motivation is "because it was fun", expect people to go, "uh huh", roll their eyes, maybe blacklist you, maybe lynch you, almost certainly ignore you, and not take you seriously in any aspect of your play. So I suppose if you're content being utterly ignored that's an okay position to be in, but otherwise...best not to.

Ask what your gambit achieves
. Does it actually do anything? If it does, then you need to ask if this thing can/could negatively impact the town. If it doesn't, then you shouldn't be pulling the stunt in the first place because it'd be a waste of space. Gambits ALWAYS should have an impact on the gamestate. If yours does not, then it is a failure.

Ask whether your gambit furthers your agenda
. Your agenda as town is establishing accurate reads and lynching scum. It is true that a gambit can be good while not directly fulfilling this objective (for instance, macho-bp switch), but most successful gambits DO. They make scum easier to eliminate.

Know the consequences of your gambit
. Every possible outcome of the gambit should be weighed--including the less successful ones. If you're not aware of what negative effects can happen when you run a gambit...don't run that gambit!

Be honest with yourself and critically analyze
. If you're not able to have the intellectual honesty to realize any of the above, then you absolutely shouldn't be running a full-blown gambit. Know your limits.

Tell as few lies as possible
. The best gambits are the ones which heavily utilize the truth: a twist on the actual role which is not harmful to have altered in the way you did. Claiming two-shot when you're either one-shot (draw a nightkill after outing your result) or three-shot (avoid a nightkill after outing two results) can be conductive, as long as immediately following you out your real role and explain why.

Gambits should always gain more than they lose
. So when you think about the rewards, also think about the risk. You can't think, "this might vaguely help" when fakeclaiming an innocent result, because you also know (if you're being intellectually honest with yourself) "this could cause significant harm".

Successful gambits are largely self-evident
. You might need to explain your motives anyway, but the results of a good gambit often speak for themselves without you needing to. Think "automatically displayed with a flip", or "can be shown by quickly outing results" as self-evident. Not, "look at that reaction to my obviously fake dayvig, must be scum".

Gambits should be used sparsely
. If you gambit every game it aint gonna work. If you gambit almost every game it aint gonna work. If you gambit in so much as a third of your games it's probably
still
not going to work. If you pull two gambits in a single game it will basically NEVER work. For gambiting to work,
you absolutely
must
foster an environment where it is believable
. And if you're known to be a frequent liar, then unsurprisingly, people will see through you when you pull a stunt again.

Don't put too much stock into your gambit
. You should always have a play-based/role-based backup to a gambit which can (and should) supersede your gambit should you not obtain your desired results. Never rely on a gambit to give you something;
you should already have something
without
the need to gambit
.

These things are why most gambits don't work out. You need to know that a failed gambit can be costly, and that just because you think a gambit is good does not mean it will go as you fantasized in your head. Unless you can be sure you have crafted something where the cost < benefits, you cannot safely pull off a gambit. They are best used sparsely for good reason. Oversaturation of gambits devalues the good ones and makes it harder to do some genuinely good scumhunting. If people have shown focus on your shitty gambit, that's time focusing on something not scumhunting.

Analyzing Using Risk-Reward:

This is rather comparably easy especially when you combine the tips from above. The main thing you're looking for?
Ask what is gained and what is lost
. This is above all else the golden rule, and it doesn't just apply to gambits. It applies universally to
all
aspects of scumhunting, and is what I mean when I say to crossreference this with my prior lecture about things being WIFOM.

Do probability analysis: ask what is more likely in the given situation
. What is more likely to be the case? What makes more sense? What, with everything you know, is the more logical, reasonable conclusion to reach? This is essential in risk-reward analysis.

Get inside the head of players
. You need to be thinking like the player you're analyzing. Given who they are, which thoughts are more likely to surface? What plans are they more likely to cook up? What courses of actions are more likely to be taken?

Because scum can do anything, weigh what scum gain the most FROM doing
. You want to ask the question scum should ask themselves:
"What is the innate risk a scum player takes with this? What is the potential reward from this?" The action with the lowest risk and the highest reward is often the correct path, as scum should be taking the simplest, most direct route to victory.

Don't think scum can't do something/town must do something/etc.
Instead, ask what is gained as
both
alignments. And from that, knowing what is gained from the action and lost from the action, ask
which alignment does the action benefit more
. The answer could be "neither" (it's not alignment indicative), but you should absolutely not blindly assume one over the other; think about it first.

This is a thing. You need to know the difference between what is a
possible
scum/town action (literally everything), and what is a
probable
scum/town action (what you need to figure out). There's no universal standard on these, because they are gamestate dependent.
Use situational awareness to figure out what, in the
current
conditions, makes a player more likely one alignment specifically
.

These tips are probably incomplete so I may need to revise this at a later time, but this should at least get people started.
tl;dr
don't be a hero and don't be silly
Show
"I used to think you had this elegant-trolly, minimalist playstyle. Then I realized the playstyle is ~Lazy~
The true enlightenment was realizing that they are the same thing."
~fferyllt

"who the fuck fakeclaims Tracker like that
WHO THE FUCK DOES THAT"
~Alisae
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