Mini Normal 1917: :X Mafia (Game over!)

[Vedith]

Then replace out.
I understand that me pinning you and Backhand has left you uninterested in the game.

[Hiraki]

i think to win the game, the best route is

Grendel -> CCC (only here because I realize that I need to start compromising) -> Backhand -> Cheetory (unless he's a neighbor now?)

[Hiraki]

don't be an ass now

[Vedith]

I'll lynch either you or Backhand.

[Hiraki]

Vote: Grendel

[Vedith]

I don't think you heard me!

I'll lynch Hiraki or Backhand!

[gigabyteTroubadour]

getting to this in a bit

[Backhand]

This is just so much certainty for something incorrect.

[Vedith]

This is just so much certainty for something incorrect.

[Backhand]

In post 1246, Backhand wrote:
VOTE: Nero Cain

Yeah, but he's been worse since then. I really don't think kraska is scum, this feels exactly right to me.


In post 1248, implosion wrote:
kraska77 (5): CCC, SlingshotWaffles, Nero Cain, MuttonChopMagic, PenguinPower
Nero Cain (4): kraska77, Not_Mafia, Cheetory6, Backhand
CCC (2): Hiraki, NotTheRealPaul
Backhand (1): Grendel


Kraska was still the leading wagon, all 3 scum voting separately and Backhand already stated that he thinks Karska is a good lynch.

I'd like to take this up specifically--yeah, as soon as gamma got replaced and kraska came in I thought that kraska was town--so actually I was never OK with a

kraska

lynch. I'm not sure how this supports your argument at all.

The rest is all conclusions leading to explanations--"hiraki and backhand are scum and as such here's an explanation of what they're doing" Like your entire VCA could be applied to Grendel as well and that's if your "scum never vote together except for these specific times when I say they did vote together" narrative actually had legs.

And both are currently not voting me, because you know, that means they are in danger of being lynched tomorrow.
They need to lynch else where first, and save my lynch for a closer point to LyLo.

Anyone reading the game should know this is absolute garbage--I came in at the start of the day voting and pushing for you, the only reason I'm not voting is because you did your dog-and-pony show about everyone unvoting you. That'll change in a minute, but I'm going to write a countercase.

[Vedith]

Backhand, getting a sweat on?

[Cheetory6]

I'm not sure I understand what the point of the full readlist was if you're so absolutely sure that Backhand/Hiraki are the scumteam?

[Backhand]

Backhand, getting a sweat on?

Yeah, I have a pretty strong preference against someone who's scum or been a useless slot the whole game coming in and mislynching me.

[Backhand]

Vote Count 1.12

Not_Mafia (6): Not_Mafia, Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty, NotTheRealPaul, PenguinPower
Gamma Emerald (2): CCC, MuttonChopMagic
Backhand (1): Grendel
CCC (1): Hiraki
Cheetory6 (1): SlingshotWaffles

Not Voting (2): Gamma Emerald, Nero Cain


With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.
Deadline is on Thursday, June 15th at 5:00 PM PST, in (expired on 2017-06-15 20:00:00).

Not_Mafia has been prodded.

Vote Count 1.13

Not_Mafia (5): Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty, NotTheRealPaul, PenguinPower
Gamma Emerald (4): CCC, MuttonChopMagic, SlingshotWaffles,

Nero Cain

Cheetory6 (1): Not_Mafia
CCC (1): Hiraki
PenguinPower (1): Grendel

Not Voting (1): Gamma Emerald


With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.
Deadline is on Thursday, June 15th at 5:00 PM PST, in (expired on 2017-06-15 20:00:00).

This is still the key moment of the game--when Not_Mafia was under real heat, Nero jumped on a bad counterwagon. That is exactly the kind of play you would expect from a buddy trying to save a buddy. That's why I linked nm/vedith and nero to begin with, I'm sticking with it.

VOTE: Vedith

[Cheetory6]

UNVOTE: vedith

[Vedith]

I'm not sure I understand what the point of the full readlist was if you're so absolutely sure that Backhand/Hiraki are the scumteam?

I like rainbow reads \o/

[CCC]

No - that's not the point. If he's scum, why do you want his explanation?

Two reasons. First off, I'm not 100%

sure

he's scum. I think he's the most

likely

to be scum - by a fairly narrow margin - but that's not the same as being

sure

. So, if he flips Town, then I'll be grateful to have his explanation ready at hand tomorrow.

On the other hand, if he

is

Mafia - which, as I've said, seems likely - then his case will still be important. Because either one of the two people he's voting for is scum that he's willing to bus, or neither of them are. If

one

of them is, then there will likely be a difference in how he presents the genuine or the fake case - if the two appear equally persuasive, then his most probable scumpartner is Grendel.

Also, depending on how genuine his case looks, I might yet change my read on Vedith. (There's already been so little data to work with concerning him...)

[CCC]

Giga's push on Nero yesterday does not merit a town read.

Consider this:

1) Regardless which alignment Giga subbed into they would view Nero to be OB!scum, as that was a reason they subbed into this game.

2) All players with the exception of cheetroy that had meta experience with Nero were hard scum reading him D2, (Kasrka/Mutton/sling) That left little wiggle room as to what Giga would do/say as scum regarding Nero’s slot. Giga has established themselves as utilizing meta as a scum hunting tool frequently. Seeing Giga make a poor meta-analysis on Nero would have been a red flag for the conftown suspecting Nero. Especially Karska who has plenty of previous experience with Gigabyte.

3) Scum Giga gets finicky over their scum buddies. In a game I recently modded they reflexively wanted to bus Ginngie for a scummy lol hammer, and felt like nancy discarding the proposed play was incorrect. So Giga’s perception of their buddies scuminess is much stronger from Giga’s POV then towns, and thus the urge to bus is higher than the average player.

4) Giga themselves remarked that Nero has poor scum play. The cost of attempting to keep him around would not have been worth the effort needed to do so.

This off course doesn’t establish that Giga is scum, but it does establish that Giga would lynch Nero yesterday regardless their alignment. That I'm certain of.

@Giga

You'll confirm what I'm saying above is true?

Yup!

Well, now,

this

is interesting. I'd likely discount it just coming from Grendel himself, as Grendel is still in the likely-scum camp and Giga isn't, but then Giga

agreed

that his whole Nero push is more correctly only worth a nullread.

Hmmmm. I'm going to have to think on this further. But there still isn't reason to put Giga anywhere near the scummier players in this game.

[CCC]

...except you're not taking into account the D1 reads are often _worse_ then if all the reads where drawn from a random number generator. Breaking even with your reads on this site means that you're playing decently. Last time I checked "decent" is better then "incompetent". Why did you feel a need to comment on this anyway?

Sorry. I didn't mean to imply "incompetent". I meant to imply "neutral".

I... have a kind of reflexive instinct to correct bad math when I run across it. (And I had been interpreting "decent" to mean "substantially better than neutral").

If you wanna do maths do something that furthers the game state. Don't do something that distracts players from the game. :/

Cant wait for this.

Giga hardbus neto for towncred to win game? Was nero the only wagon D2?

Yes. (I don't think any other wagon managed to push to more than four posts over the entire day).

The disbelief you guys are voicing is the whole reason that scum will hard bus to win. Never totally write players off as town for leading a wagon on scum.

Ah. I think there may have been a misunderstanding here. My 'yes' was a reply to NotTheRealPaul's

second

question (i.e. "Was nero the only wagon D2?"), not his first statement.

Could Giga have bussed Nero for towncred, hoping to ride that through to a victory? Yes, quite possibly; but an atual scum case is going to need a touch more than that raw possibility.

[Vedith]

Because either one of the two people he's voting for is scum that he's willing to bus, or neither of them are

CCC, you're a genius!
I'm sure this never occurred to anyone before you said. If I'm Scum, either There's Scum in Hiraki/Backhand or There's not!
It's so simple, yet poetic.

[implosion]

Vote Count 3.3

Vedith (4): gigabyteTroubadour, CCC, MuttonChopMagic, Backhand
Hiraki (1): Vedith
Grendel (1): Hiraki

Not Voting (4): Grendel, NotTheRealPaul, kraska77, Cheetory6


With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.
Deadline is at 7:00 PM PST on Wenesday, July 12, in (expired on 2017-07-12 19:00:00).

[CCC]

Saying things like, “Scum team is never saving you”, while coming into today with the thought that Nero’s wagon had no scum on it does not add up. The first thought is a clear implication that scum _would_ in fact bus Nero, yet Giga keeps finding reasons that Nero wouldn't be bussed in this game. It registers as an excuse to lynch people off the wagon.

...huh. This... is actually a good point.

Mind you, I don't think it's a wonderfully

strong

point. But I'll keep it in mind if it turns out that the scum team is not you/Vedith.

[CCC]

Slingshotwaffles

died

last night. There's a number of ways that could have happened if they tried to shoot you, I guess... but none of them seem particularly likely.

afaik all roles capable of misdirecting night actions onto other players are blacklisted in normal.

Nexus/BusDriver/Redirector etc

The Vigilante is not blacklisted in Normal, and we already had one Night without a Mafia kill. We could have, for example, odd-night Doctor and one-shot Vigilante interacting in an odd way. (Actually looking over the list of normal roles, that seems the most likely way for it to have happened. If it did happen that way, then naturally both Doctor and Vig should keep their mouths shut, we don't want Scum knowing who you are).

But, like I said, that seems unlikely.

[CCC]

Okay. Backhand/Hiraki does make some sense as a scumteam. (I'd still like an explanation of how you figured it out, Vedith, so that I can test the strength of your reasoning).

The thing is, though, that Vedith/Grendel

also

makes sense as a scumteam. (So does Vedith/Hiraki, for that matter).

So. Two options.

One, Vedith is Town. He really has solved the game; the solution is above.

Two, Vedith is scum. He is lying through his teeth.

Personally, I think that the second is more likely. And on the off-chance that he

does

flip Town - well, then we'd have a completely solved game and just need to go through the lynches.

VOTE: Vedith

Can you elaborate more on the team compositions and why you think they exist?

It isn't all based off VCA is it?

VCA is

most

of it. Vedith-or-Backhand comes from looking at the Not_Mafia wagon on Day One. As I've said before, I'm sure there's scum on one or other side of that wagon - and Not_Mafia (Vedith) and Backhand are the two top candidates there. If Vedith is Town, then Backhand leaps up to most probable scum - and vice versa.

If Vedith is scum, then the fact that he's pushing so hard for Hiraki/Backhand would tend to suggest his partner is likely elsewhere - and the best candidate outside those two is clearly yourself (NTRP and Gigabyte are both looking pretty Towny, and everyone else is practically confirmed Town at this point). If Vedith is Town, then his reads have strong merit - not that Hiraki's impassioned defense of Nero has done him any favours, either.

(Mind you, some other pair - like Vedith/Backhand - is also not without merit. I'm pretty sure that both remaining scum are to be found in the set {Vedith, Backhand, Hiraki, Grendel}, but I'm a good deal less certain with regards to associatives within that set.)

[CCC]

Thank you for presenting your case, Vedith. It is indeed quite thorough.

However. I've taken a good look over your votecount analyses, and most of the time (almost all of the time) it seems that if I swap out Hikari or Backhand in favour of you or Grendel, well, then one can say some very similar things.

Consider, for example:

Not_Mafia (5): Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty, NotTheRealPaul, PenguinPower
Gamma Emerald (4): CCC, MuttonChopMagic, SlingshotWaffles, Nero Cain
Cheetory6 (1): Not_Mafia
CCC (1): Hiraki
PenguinPower (1): Grendel

All 3 scum voting in different places. Nero pushing another lynch instead of mine only has an explanation of scum already on the wagon.

If Mafia is you/Nero/Grendel, then all three are

still

spreading their votes (and Nero not voting you has an even simpler explanation)

kraska77 (5): CCC, SlingshotWaffles, Nero Cain, MuttonChopMagic, PenguinPower
Nero Cain (4): kraska77, Not_Mafia, Cheetory6, Backhand
CCC (2): Hiraki, NotTheRealPaul
Backhand (1): Grendel

Kraska was still the leading wagon, all 3 scum voting separately and Backhand already stated that he thinks Karska is a good lynch.

Again; your slot/Nero/Grendel are also voting seperately. (So, for that matter, are you/Nero/Hiraki and Nero/Grendel/Hiraki).

Nero Cain (4): kraska77, Not_Mafia, SlingshotWaffles, MuttonChopMagic
DeathRowKitty (2): Cheetory6, Grendel
SlingshotWaffles (1): Hiraki
Not_Mafia (1): Backhand

No progression, both other wagons dropped/never progressed but yet staying where they are.

This might actually count against your narrative here. Why wouldn't Hiraki/Backhand jump on the DeathRowKitty slot here?

...and so on. I'm sure you get the point - there's very little that I'm seeing in there that I

can't

just as easily use to argue for a Nero/Vedith/Grendel Mafia. (Or a Nero/Backhand/Grendel Mafia, for that matter).