Mini Normal 1917: :X Mafia (Game over!)

[CCC]

no no no - im gonna be stubborn here

CCC votes Vedith and asks for explanation before voting - how does that get a pass?

I don't see what you're getting at here. Yes, I am voting Vedith. Would you like me to present my case on him?

[CCC]

No - that's not the point. If he's scum, why do you want his explanation?

Two reasons. First off, I'm not 100%

sure

he's scum. I think he's the most

likely

to be scum - by a fairly narrow margin - but that's not the same as being

sure

. So, if he flips Town, then I'll be grateful to have his explanation ready at hand tomorrow.

On the other hand, if he

is

Mafia - which, as I've said, seems likely - then his case will still be important. Because either one of the two people he's voting for is scum that he's willing to bus, or neither of them are. If

one

of them is, then there will likely be a difference in how he presents the genuine or the fake case - if the two appear equally persuasive, then his most probable scumpartner is Grendel.

Also, depending on how genuine his case looks, I might yet change my read on Vedith. (There's already been so little data to work with concerning him...)

[CCC]

Giga's push on Nero yesterday does not merit a town read.

Consider this:

1) Regardless which alignment Giga subbed into they would view Nero to be OB!scum, as that was a reason they subbed into this game.

2) All players with the exception of cheetroy that had meta experience with Nero were hard scum reading him D2, (Kasrka/Mutton/sling) That left little wiggle room as to what Giga would do/say as scum regarding Nero’s slot. Giga has established themselves as utilizing meta as a scum hunting tool frequently. Seeing Giga make a poor meta-analysis on Nero would have been a red flag for the conftown suspecting Nero. Especially Karska who has plenty of previous experience with Gigabyte.

3) Scum Giga gets finicky over their scum buddies. In a game I recently modded they reflexively wanted to bus Ginngie for a scummy lol hammer, and felt like nancy discarding the proposed play was incorrect. So Giga’s perception of their buddies scuminess is much stronger from Giga’s POV then towns, and thus the urge to bus is higher than the average player.

4) Giga themselves remarked that Nero has poor scum play. The cost of attempting to keep him around would not have been worth the effort needed to do so.

This off course doesn’t establish that Giga is scum, but it does establish that Giga would lynch Nero yesterday regardless their alignment. That I'm certain of.

@Giga

You'll confirm what I'm saying above is true?

Yup!

Well, now,

this

is interesting. I'd likely discount it just coming from Grendel himself, as Grendel is still in the likely-scum camp and Giga isn't, but then Giga

agreed

that his whole Nero push is more correctly only worth a nullread.

Hmmmm. I'm going to have to think on this further. But there still isn't reason to put Giga anywhere near the scummier players in this game.

[CCC]

...except you're not taking into account the D1 reads are often _worse_ then if all the reads where drawn from a random number generator. Breaking even with your reads on this site means that you're playing decently. Last time I checked "decent" is better then "incompetent". Why did you feel a need to comment on this anyway?

Sorry. I didn't mean to imply "incompetent". I meant to imply "neutral".

I... have a kind of reflexive instinct to correct bad math when I run across it. (And I had been interpreting "decent" to mean "substantially better than neutral").

If you wanna do maths do something that furthers the game state. Don't do something that distracts players from the game. :/

Cant wait for this.

Giga hardbus neto for towncred to win game? Was nero the only wagon D2?

Yes. (I don't think any other wagon managed to push to more than four posts over the entire day).

The disbelief you guys are voicing is the whole reason that scum will hard bus to win. Never totally write players off as town for leading a wagon on scum.

Ah. I think there may have been a misunderstanding here. My 'yes' was a reply to NotTheRealPaul's

second

question (i.e. "Was nero the only wagon D2?"), not his first statement.

Could Giga have bussed Nero for towncred, hoping to ride that through to a victory? Yes, quite possibly; but an atual scum case is going to need a touch more than that raw possibility.

[CCC]

Saying things like, “Scum team is never saving you”, while coming into today with the thought that Nero’s wagon had no scum on it does not add up. The first thought is a clear implication that scum _would_ in fact bus Nero, yet Giga keeps finding reasons that Nero wouldn't be bussed in this game. It registers as an excuse to lynch people off the wagon.

...huh. This... is actually a good point.

Mind you, I don't think it's a wonderfully

strong

point. But I'll keep it in mind if it turns out that the scum team is not you/Vedith.

[CCC]

Slingshotwaffles

died

last night. There's a number of ways that could have happened if they tried to shoot you, I guess... but none of them seem particularly likely.

afaik all roles capable of misdirecting night actions onto other players are blacklisted in normal.

Nexus/BusDriver/Redirector etc

The Vigilante is not blacklisted in Normal, and we already had one Night without a Mafia kill. We could have, for example, odd-night Doctor and one-shot Vigilante interacting in an odd way. (Actually looking over the list of normal roles, that seems the most likely way for it to have happened. If it did happen that way, then naturally both Doctor and Vig should keep their mouths shut, we don't want Scum knowing who you are).

But, like I said, that seems unlikely.

[CCC]

Okay. Backhand/Hiraki does make some sense as a scumteam. (I'd still like an explanation of how you figured it out, Vedith, so that I can test the strength of your reasoning).

The thing is, though, that Vedith/Grendel

also

makes sense as a scumteam. (So does Vedith/Hiraki, for that matter).

So. Two options.

One, Vedith is Town. He really has solved the game; the solution is above.

Two, Vedith is scum. He is lying through his teeth.

Personally, I think that the second is more likely. And on the off-chance that he

does

flip Town - well, then we'd have a completely solved game and just need to go through the lynches.

VOTE: Vedith

Can you elaborate more on the team compositions and why you think they exist?

It isn't all based off VCA is it?

VCA is

most

of it. Vedith-or-Backhand comes from looking at the Not_Mafia wagon on Day One. As I've said before, I'm sure there's scum on one or other side of that wagon - and Not_Mafia (Vedith) and Backhand are the two top candidates there. If Vedith is Town, then Backhand leaps up to most probable scum - and vice versa.

If Vedith is scum, then the fact that he's pushing so hard for Hiraki/Backhand would tend to suggest his partner is likely elsewhere - and the best candidate outside those two is clearly yourself (NTRP and Gigabyte are both looking pretty Towny, and everyone else is practically confirmed Town at this point). If Vedith is Town, then his reads have strong merit - not that Hiraki's impassioned defense of Nero has done him any favours, either.

(Mind you, some other pair - like Vedith/Backhand - is also not without merit. I'm pretty sure that both remaining scum are to be found in the set {Vedith, Backhand, Hiraki, Grendel}, but I'm a good deal less certain with regards to associatives within that set.)

[CCC]

Thank you for presenting your case, Vedith. It is indeed quite thorough.

However. I've taken a good look over your votecount analyses, and most of the time (almost all of the time) it seems that if I swap out Hikari or Backhand in favour of you or Grendel, well, then one can say some very similar things.

Consider, for example:

Not_Mafia (5): Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty, NotTheRealPaul, PenguinPower
Gamma Emerald (4): CCC, MuttonChopMagic, SlingshotWaffles, Nero Cain
Cheetory6 (1): Not_Mafia
CCC (1): Hiraki
PenguinPower (1): Grendel

All 3 scum voting in different places. Nero pushing another lynch instead of mine only has an explanation of scum already on the wagon.

If Mafia is you/Nero/Grendel, then all three are

still

spreading their votes (and Nero not voting you has an even simpler explanation)

kraska77 (5): CCC, SlingshotWaffles, Nero Cain, MuttonChopMagic, PenguinPower
Nero Cain (4): kraska77, Not_Mafia, Cheetory6, Backhand
CCC (2): Hiraki, NotTheRealPaul
Backhand (1): Grendel

Kraska was still the leading wagon, all 3 scum voting separately and Backhand already stated that he thinks Karska is a good lynch.

Again; your slot/Nero/Grendel are also voting seperately. (So, for that matter, are you/Nero/Hiraki and Nero/Grendel/Hiraki).

Nero Cain (4): kraska77, Not_Mafia, SlingshotWaffles, MuttonChopMagic
DeathRowKitty (2): Cheetory6, Grendel
SlingshotWaffles (1): Hiraki
Not_Mafia (1): Backhand

No progression, both other wagons dropped/never progressed but yet staying where they are.

This might actually count against your narrative here. Why wouldn't Hiraki/Backhand jump on the DeathRowKitty slot here?

...and so on. I'm sure you get the point - there's very little that I'm seeing in there that I

can't

just as easily use to argue for a Nero/Vedith/Grendel Mafia. (Or a Nero/Backhand/Grendel Mafia, for that matter).

[CCC]

Vote Count 1.12

Not_Mafia (6): Not_Mafia, Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty, NotTheRealPaul, PenguinPower
Gamma Emerald (2): CCC, MuttonChopMagic
Backhand (1): Grendel
CCC (1): Hiraki
Cheetory6 (1): SlingshotWaffles

Not Voting (2): Gamma Emerald, Nero Cain


With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.
Deadline is on Thursday, June 15th at 5:00 PM PST, in (expired on 2017-06-15 20:00:00).

Not_Mafia has been prodded.

Vote Count 1.13

Not_Mafia (5): Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty, NotTheRealPaul, PenguinPower
Gamma Emerald (4): CCC, MuttonChopMagic, SlingshotWaffles,

Nero Cain

Cheetory6 (1): Not_Mafia
CCC (1): Hiraki
PenguinPower (1): Grendel

Not Voting (1): Gamma Emerald


With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.
Deadline is on Thursday, June 15th at 5:00 PM PST, in (expired on 2017-06-15 20:00:00).

This is still the key moment of the game--when Not_Mafia was under real heat, Nero jumped on a bad counterwagon. That is exactly the kind of play you would expect from a buddy trying to save a buddy. That's why I linked nm/vedith and nero to begin with, I'm sticking with it.

VOTE: Vedith

It's only one point - but unlike Vedith's case, I can't find a way to say the same about anyone else.

[CCC]

Because either one of the two people he's voting for is scum that he's willing to bus, or neither of them are

CCC, you're a genius!
I'm sure this never occurred to anyone before you said. If I'm Scum, either There's Scum in Hiraki/Backhand or There's not!
It's so simple, yet poetic.

Did you miss the point where I told you how to differentiate between the two cases?

(For what it's worth, I do think that if you're scum, your most likely partner is Grendel).

[CCC]

Yeah but I'm right.

For what it's worth, you've got me pretty much convinced that one of you or Backhand is scum. So, my plan is to vote for you today and wait for the flip - if you're sum, then my next target is Grendel, while if you're Town, then my next target is Backhand.

Unless new information comes in or someone presents a particularly persuasive case, that is.

[CCC]

I think the worst thing I saw in regards to Vediths slot was that point where Nero unvoted Not mafia D1 when NM started gaining steam.

but that's it?... everything else is null

I haven't read that wall Vedith posted yet ethier. All them post links inviting cross examination are intimidating.

That's one of the points against the slot. The other is that he gained a backup PR role.

We're in a game with at least one Neighbour (PenguinPower, killed night one - so presumably there's a second Neighbour out there), at least one Friendly Neighbour (MCM) with a 2x Loyal modifier, and at least one Doctor (no nightkill on the first night). That seems like a

massively

strong Town. The odds of there being a Backup Role on top of that - well, that's starting to look a bit silly. (Of course, Vedith had no choice; Not_Mafia already claimed that much on Day One).

[CCC]

I don't think hiraki should be cleared by any means--its light evidence that I don't think a buddy would go so far to defend him in the first place. But its definitely not impossible.

Also, I'm definitely letting vedith's garbage case get to me and it makes me just want to string him up--but what should actually happen is letting our three confirmed townies tell us what to do.

In my view, the remaining members of the Mafia can be found in the set {Vedith, Grendel, Backhand, Hiraki}. And of those four, the one with the best case against him is Vedith.

[CCC]

Ok I'm done reading both accpuntant and nero's iso's
Accountant waltzed into the game saying it's full of VIs, and spent a good portion of day 1 piling on notsure, gamma and waffles. Accountant iso emanates lots of confidence in surviving till endgame, we already know that 3/4 people they pushed either flipped green or are confirmed town at this point. With the exceptions of backhand. Halfway through day one accountant switched gears and campained strongly for a backhand wagon...., dpesnt make much sense for a widely townread accountant who is strongly manipulating the flow of the game, to get off the lynchbaits that everyone wanted lynched and bus backhand instead

Hmmmm. Backhand's definitely not the lynch for today, at least.

[CCC]

Yeah but I'm right.

For what it's worth, you've got me pretty much convinced that one of you or Backhand is scum. So, my plan is to vote for you today and wait for the flip - if you're sum, then my next target is Grendel, while if you're Town, then my next target is Backhand.

Unless new information comes in or someone presents a particularly persuasive case, that is.

if vedith flips green I want hiraki before backhand I think
backhand is pretty townie... hiraki... is pink

I'll agree that at the

moment

Hiraki looks worse than Backhand - but if Vedith flips green, then Backhand's estimates change. Because in the Day One wagon on the Not_Mafia slot - everyone on that wagon except Backhand is either strongly Town or confirmed Town. So, if Vedith flips green, then that's a strong argument for Backhand being the scum on that wagon.

[CCC]

Ugh I think this is town vedith...vedith vote grendel with me pls
Giga is definitely town here...grendel continues to distance himself from the main happenings of the game and wallposts on an outside shot instead... he's scum
Backhand, giga, vedith and Paul are town
That leaves hiraki and ccc as candidates for last scum
VOTE: grendel

Okay... I know you're on vacation, but I'm going to need to ask you to explain this in a bit more detail.

Doesn't have to be immediate. When you get back from vacation is fine.

Specifically, I'd like to know where these sudden townreads on Vedith and Backhand come from. (Because if those two are Town, then Mafia has to be Hiraki/Grendel).

[CCC]

If it helps, I'm a backup role to an unclaimed role.

Do you mean you're a backup to a role that no-one has yet claimed, or are you implying that there's yet

another

PR in this game?

Because if it's the second, then that's just doubling down on the ridiculous.

[CCC]

If there's a doctor that's probably worth the counter claim.

No, the Doctor

must

remain silent. If the Doctor can prevent one single more kill, then Town victory is pretty near guaranteed, as long as we can all manage not to lynch the pseudomasons (irrespective of what else goes on).

[CCC]

...I believe I have just figured out what Vedith is claiming to be the backup of.

UNVOTE: Vedith

[CCC]

I'd trade doctor for confirmed scum at this point.
Especially since if Vedith is scum he's probably not getting lynched today now without a CC.

No, look. We have three confirmed Town out of ten players. I know I'm Town, and Gigabyte looks pretty Town. My case for NTRP being Town has recently collapsed - but even so, that leaves at

worst

five players who could be Mafia. Of whom two are. If the Doctor - or whoever stopped the nightkill on Night One - is successful

one more time

, then this game is basically

won

for us. Even if we

completely

mess up the voting.

[CCC]

Okay. So, I'm willing to seriously consider the possibility that Vedith is actually a backup PR. And if that

is

true, then he is Town.

Which, in turn, implies Backhand as scum.

So...

VOTE: Backhand

[CCC]

Or doctor dies tonight with whoever they have cleared still unknown? I really feel like it shouldn't be that hard to piece together things like this at this point.

If the Doctor has an innocent result within the {Hiraki; Vedith; Backhand; Grendel} group, then the argument could certainly be made that said info is worth it. But if the Doctor can only clear one of the pseudomasons, then it would be unambiguously NOT worth it (you three are already cleared). And it's even worse if the Doctor can only clear SlingshotWaffles...

Look, if I'm right about what Vedith is claiming, then the Towniest action right now would be to remove all votes from Vedith, vote for someone else (even if you think Vedith is scum, there must be a second scum), and to

shut up

about the whole business.

[CCC]

I want vedith to claim because it's important and there are 3 more important targets regardless (3 ics tomorrow is game)

I would prefer us not to mass claim until at least tomorrow. Because, if I'm right about the setup, and about various other assumptions, then Scum not knowing about what role Vedith is the backup of until at least tomorrow might be enough

on its own

to force a Town victory, irrespective of anything else we might do.

For the same reason, we should not lynch Vedith today. (If Scum kills Vedith tonight to find out what I'm on about, then we win anyway).

I will gladly explain my reasoning once doing so no longer reduces Town's chances of victory.

[CCC]

Ohhhhhhhhhhh. Role

stopper

.

Apologies, then. My previous objection was made under the impression that you were a backup Role

blocker

, and is therefore withdrawn.

The main Rolestopper must of course claim Vanilla Townie; the role is basically an improved Doctor, after all.

[CCC]

I dont know whats "normal" here so all these PRs kinda wierds me out. Especially backups bcuz 1. Ive never seen backups and 2. There are too many backups IMO.

I have seen backups before, on this site. They are a thing that happens sometimes.

Two

backups might be too much. Or might not, Backup Motion Detector is pretty weak after all.

[CCC]

Edpecially as we r massclaiming and have a rolestopper. Rolestopper can simply protect regular motion detector.

Rolestopper will not do that because I am assuming that Rolestopper is not a complete idiot. Rolestopper's only place is on MCM, keeping him safe from the Mafia (I don't believe he only has two Loyal shots, which means he's basically a self-verifying Cop; far more powerful than a Motion Detector).

[CCC]

I'm a Backup Vanilla Townsperson. Good thing for me waffles bit it so I gained his power.

I believe it's my turn to claim next, then?

I'm a Vanilla Townie.

[CCC]

Rolestopper (or Doctor) should most certainly not claim. Just keep protecting MCM, and Town is basically guaranteed a win.

Now, assuming that all PR role reveals have been truthful; scum has a good chance of being Backhand/Grendel. The setup as it stands does look rather Townsided to me (having a Cop-equivalent in MCM and a Doctor-equivalent in the Rolestopper). I know that in newbie games, last I looked at that grid, the only way to end up with both Cop and Doc involved the Scum getting a Roleblocker. A Scum Roleblocker is, I think, still very much a possibility (if so, I expect he tried to roleblock MCM on Night 2 but was thwarted by the Rolestopper)

The other option for a Scum Power Role, of course, is our Motion Detector (and his backup). Scum could certainly do with a way to look for and identify the Rolestopper, and a Motion Detector seems like a good way to give the Scumteam this capability; an NTRP/Hiraki scumteam is very much on the cards.

A third option is that Vedith is lying; that we actually have a Doctor instead of a Rolestopper and Vedith is relying on the Doctor not speaking up to get away with his lie. (If anyone dies and flips Doctor, then Vedith needs to get lynched the very next day). (That we don't have a protective role at all seems unlikely - scum could have faked the Night One kill, but why not hit MCM on Night Two unless they were trying to dodge a Protective role?)

Between those two options, I have to say, I think Backhand/Grendel is the more likely scumteam. On the whole, I'm happy to vote for either of them today.

VOTE: Grendel

Note: This puts Grendel at L-1

That said--a doctor or other protective role probably should claim though because it would indicate that vedith is lying.

I

firmly

disagree. The Doctor is better used protecting MCM in order to ensure the expansion of the pseudomasons. (If the scum are lucky enough to hit the Doctor tonight, then we'll know immediately on the flip in any case).

When there is only one scum left, then the Doctor (if present) can reveal himself.

[CCC]

VOTE: Backhand

Its probably BackhandxHiraki (Like I've been saying the whole game)

Before the mass claim, I would have agreed that this was a strong possibility; but how do you fit this around Hiraki and NTRP's claims?

(Mind you, BackhandxGigabyte is not impossible).

[CCC]

Pre-edit

Why vote Backhand over Hiraki when Hiraki is the counterwagon?

Because of the two Hirkai is getting lynched in the future. Back back will probably slip past everybodies radar and into the end game.

There for I don't need to voice my suspicions against Hiraki like I do Back Hand

My current top scumwagon is you/Backhand (with second-top wagon being Hiraki/Paul). And of the two of you, I do feel Backhand is actually the more suspicious one - in that if Vedith is Town, then Backhand is a good choice for scum on the Day One NotMafia wagon.

I doubt I'm the only one to see scum!Backhand as a strong possibility. So I don't see him slipping past the radar. (Giga might slip past the radar, but not Backhand).

VOTE: Backhand

Its probably BackhandxHiraki (Like I've been saying the whole game)

Before the mass claim, I would have agreed that this was a strong possibility; but how do you fit this around Hiraki and NTRP's claims?

(Mind you, BackhandxGigabyte is not impossible).

Scum-Back-Up

Read my posts ccc

A scum backup to a Town role just feels backwards. Unless, perhaps, there's also a Town backup to a Scum role...

...actually, that does suggest some possibilities.

Hmmmm. Not

completely

implausible, I guess.

[CCC]

Right, the Motion Detector and the Backup Motion Detector could both be either alignment. For that matter, so could the Backup Rolestopper, so Vedith shouldn't be off the hook either (even if the claim was confirmed, which its not)

We

do

have that Night One No-Kill. Could be scum deliberately setting something up; could be evidence of some sort of protective Town role.

[CCC]

*@Backhand*

Results:

N1 forgot to watch

N2: Watched MCM and saw motion

I dont see who made motion on what so pretty much I can only check BT claims and make sure they are in fact VT :/

Do you really see NTRP's buddies forgetting to tell him to use his powers?

No, but I can see him lying to us about his targets. These claims give no new information; a Mafia Goon could have come up with them to bolster a pre-planned fake claim and be sure that no-one could provide counterevidence.

This is making me seriously consider moving my vote to NTRP instead of Grendel. Though I'm going to finish catching up before moving it.

[CCC]

Maybe. I think there's no way that all four of Mystery Rolestopper/Backup Rolestopper/Motion Detector/Backup Motion Detector are town.

That would mean we have (Very Strong!) 2x Loyal Friendly Neighbor (if that's even what it actually is, y'know?) (Weak) Motion Detector, (Strong) Rolestopper, and two Backups? No way, plus we can be 95 percent sure scum don't even have a roleblocker, else they would have blocked one of NTRP/MCM last night.

If Town does have all that, then it might be balanced by one or more Scum power roles. If roleblocker and rolestopper target the same person, then rolestopper stops roleblocker... but on the other hand, I don't see how scum roleblocker wouldn't be on MCM.

Paul's result claims that rolestopper wasn't on MCM... hmmm. If Paul is Town, then those results are genuine and rolestopper wasn't on MCM. Then scum is unlikely to have roleblocker. But if Paul is scum, then he would be lying. Rolestopper could have been on MCM and blocked scum Roleblocker.

Odds of scum Roleblocker are a good deal higher, therefore, if Paul is lying about his result. And, between the amount of Town power claimed and the number of remaining Scum, it seems perfectly sensible for Scum to have

something

- and a Roleblocker seems a strong possibility. (Another possibility is the inclusion of a Traitor - a Mafia-aligned player whose identity is unknown to the rest of the Mafia and doesn't get to join in the Mafia chat).

[CCC]

I’ve been bleeding town Since D2 but Giga doesn’t want to admit and stick to that conclusion because it won’t help their win-con.

Allow me to point to the five-vote wagon on you as evidence in support of the statement that you have not been bleeding Town since D2.

[CCC]

I could case Hiraki,
my biggest hesitation is that if Grendel is scum I will feel dumb for ignoring kraska's like 100% confidence on him being scum.

Especially considering that the last person Kraska was 100% confident on was Nero. Honestly, right now, Kraska's confidence is the single biggest strike against Grendel that exists.

[CCC]

*@All*

I'd like to pick at the plausibility of a scum aligned role stopper. I think that NotPual successfully visiting Mutton N2 is a decent indication that the stopper is scum aligned. As a scum role stopper would target their own to achieve a tempory ascetic modification, preventing a buddy from getting guiltied. I do not see a likely world where town role stopper does not protect Mutton, an ousted investigative.

Therefore I'd be wary of any rolestopper claims from uncleared players in the future. I would like you all to agree and come back to this point when and if a role stopper claims. Consider it a solid for me.

Pre-edit

Why is 1917 so important?

I don't see a likely world where Town fails to kill Mutton N2 without a Town protective role of some sort. (But it's always possible that we have both Town Doctor and Scum Rolestopper on the roster - Rolestopper could not protect a target from Doctoring without also protecting that target from the kill, and the Scum Rolestopper is a potential counter to the Town Loyal Friendly Neighbour...)

[CCC]

Why is 1917 so important?

october revolution

wrt the rolestopper that's actually a good point but then why would scum no-kill n1 as if they were building up towncred for their role but then not actually use it in a town way in future days while they know their claim will be under scrutiny?

Because they wouldn't expect to be caught? What were the chances that a motion detector would go after a claimed and confirmed PR?

[CCC]

I could case Hiraki,
my biggest hesitation is that if Grendel is scum I will feel dumb for ignoring kraska's like 100% confidence on him being scum.

I'm having second thoughts tbh....

Okay, if

you

are having second thoughts then I'm going right off the Grendel vote.

UNVOTE: Grendel

This moves my top choice for Mafia to NotTheRealPaul/Hiraki. Of the two, NotPaul has actually been a good deal more suspicious today. His reads are... easily faked, and (as has been pointed out) his results imply that the Rolestopper has been playing in a distinctly un-Townish manner - it seems the simplest explanation for that is that NTRP's reads are faked (and the Rolestopper was on MCM last night after all).

Thus, VOTE: NotTheRealPaul

[CCC]

Does this completely torpedo your reasons for voting Grendel then?

It does. and if I hadn't been taking the time to stop and think about who to vote for instead, then you would have already seen my unvote. (Grendel wasn't at L-1, so I felt I could take the time to think it through properly)

What's your read on Hiraki?

With the Grendel case torpedoed, he's on the likely scumteam. I think NTRP's results make him look scummier, but if I can't get traction on an NTRP wagon I'll move over to Hiraki. Alternatively, if Hiraki hits L-1, I'll be happy to intent-to-hammer and then hammer him.

Or if that case you provide is convincing enough to make him look scummier than NTRP.

[CCC]

VOTE: CCC

...well,

this

came out of nowhere.

Now I want to see your cases on me

and

Hiraki. (And I get the impression you want to see my case on NTRP, right? There's a lot in it that looks obvious to me, but I've learnt that doesn't make it obvious to other people)

[CCC]

Results:

N1 forgot to watch

N2: Watched MCM and saw motion

I dont see who made motion on what so pretty much I can only check BT claims and make sure they are in fact VT :/

This is the centre of my current scumread on NTRP.

The claim of Motion Detector was clearly on the cards since the Day One "I'm a PR!" claim. Either he really is a town PR, or Scum used their first-48-hour scumtalk to carefully prepare fake claims. So, presumably, his investigative results were planned out in advance as well.

Now, Motion Detector is a weak role, but it's normally fairly easy to counterclaim. If he gives results, and claims no movement, then literally

any

Town PR could counterclaim with the reason of "but I visited him". Here, we have a pair of results that appear to be carefully planned to make a counterclaim impossible - "forgot to submit an action" is completely non-counterclaimable, and "saw the confirmed PR who requested doctor protection move" is, similarly, impossible to counterclaim.

But, in this case, there actually

is

a possible counterclaim. See, last night (the last time Scum talked) we didn't know yet about the Rolestopper. Most people seemed to think there might be a Doctor - I know I did. And the Doctor does not stop motion detectors. But the Rolestopper

does

.

MCM claimed a blown one-shot Loyal modifier. But he also (very strongly) requested Doctor support the following night. It looked obvious to me that his one-shot Loyal wasn't one-shot after all, and I can only assume that the Rolestopper saw the same - MCM's request was very strongly put. So, the Rolestopper would pretty much have to be on MCM. (This would also explain the apparent preponderance of Town power this game - I still think Scum has a roleblocker, who clashed with the rolestopper on MCM Night Two). With the Rolestopper on MCM, NTRP should not have gotten that motion result. (I'm thinking he stuck with the fakeclaim that had been planned in the Mafia chat the previous night, presumably by a more experienced player).

Hence, NTRP's motion detector results look completely fake.

That's the current centre of my NTRP case.

[CCC]

As I understand it, the case against Hiraki is:

(a) Lots of people have been cleared or at least strongly Townread; Hiraki hasn't
(b) We have so many claimed PRs that at least one of them pretty much has to be scum
(c) He's a backup to a weak investigative role. The backup may or may not be the same alignment as the role.
(d) Confirmed Town Cheetory really thinks he's scum

Points (a) and (b) apply equally to Hiraki and NTRP. Point (c) raises the possibility that only one out of (Hiraki/NTRP) may be on the scumteam; but I can't really see how that makes a stronger push for either of them to be Scum over the other. Which means that the only reason to scumread Hiraki over NTRP is point (d), unless I'm missing something.

My previous post gives a strong reason to consider NTRP scum over Hiraki, Cheet. Can you provide a case for considering Hiraki scum over NTRP?

[CCC]

it's not even that true either, i was talking on pg 92 - i just didn't say anything on 93 because it's a bunch of grendel talking about what he's going to do

I'm saying you're beetlejuicing your response to me the moment I mention you/CCC.
I was saying you/Grendel for at least a little while now and not a peep.

Why are you even voting for Grendel right now?
What're the reasons?
Why haven't you voted for CCC your scumread yet?

If he's scum, then he hasn't voted for me because he's trying to push for my mislynch tomorrow. If he's Town, then I'm guessing his vote in on Grendel because that's the most powerful not-him wagon and he wants to live to tomorrow - not sure on that.

(He

does

look rather scummy in these latest interactions, I will admit. NTRP's fake-result claims still look scummier, but I'd still be willing to move my vote to Hiraki if the NTRP wagon doesn't take off)

[CCC]

Either he really is a town PR, or Scum used their first-48-hour scumtalk to carefully prepare fake claims.

Let's play your game CCC.
If there's a rolestopper in play, scum has no idea who rolestopper targetted unless slingshot was a vig kill which it's looking like he wasn't.
IE: Rolestopper could have targetted Mutton last night and Paul's scumteam would have no idea.
How exactly is it safe to fakeclaim that?

My thought is that the fakeclaim was constructed last night, before the Rolestopper was known about. The fakeclaim was constructed by Paul's scumbuddy, who is someone more experienced than Paul.

Paul stuck with the prepared fakeclaim even after the Rolestopper was revealed as a possibility, because he's been unable to communicate with his scumbuddy since Vedith's reveal. (Also, he'd already said that he tracked

someone

Night Two, so he couldn't now claim a double forget).

If Paul's scumteam carefully concocted a fakeclaim, saying that they did absolutely useless shit the first two nights doesn't exactly give his claim any credibility whatsoever.

I think Paul's sufficiently obv-newbing that it could work. (And I don't think that all of

that

is faked, either).

P-Edit: There's also that he's been a demotivated sack ever since the Nero lynch and the hard defense of Nero could have been doubling down on a buddy read where backing off would have looked scummy.

(This is Hiraki now, right?)

That's... plausible. I don't think it's as strong as the NTRP fakereads, but I can see how that makes Hiraki look scummier than he would otherwise.

[CCC]

You could in fact vote for him then.

I could. But I want to give the NTRP wagon a bit of a push first, see if I can get that moving.

[CCC]

My thought is that the fakeclaim was constructed last night, before the Rolestopper was known about. The fakeclaim was constructed by Paul's scumbuddy, who is someone more experienced than Paul.

Is he a scum motion detector then?
Is the setup balanced with that in the hands of scum?

No. If he was a scum MD he'd have real claims to give. I'm scumreading him because I think he's lying about his PR claim. He could be Scum Roleblocker, though.

...whiiiiich I've just now realised means that if NTRP is scum, then Hiraki is scum (because Hiraki's backup motion detector claim only makes sense if there really is a motion detector to be a backup of).

VOTE: Hiraki

[CCC]

Also, my thinking on balance is that even with a scum MD, the Rolestopper/Loyal Friendly Neighbour combination is pretty strongly Townsided already. Scum have to have

something

to compensate for the possibility of Town pulling a Follow The Cop strategy.

[CCC]

Hiraki was going to get lynched before Paul.
Hiraki fakeclaiming backup motion detector before Paul basically death sentences the both of them.

At the time of the roleclaims, Grendel was top lynch. They may have been hoping to push Backhand/Giga/myself to the front of the scum queue before Hiraki.

[CCC]

are we in auto win with the extra ml?

Yes. Scum win is impossible at this point. NTRP and MCM can both verify a new innocent tomorrow. Scum can't kill both of them tonight even if he wants to.

[CCC]

So, yeah. As long as we don't kill a conftown, and as long as NTRP/MCM/the Rolestopper don't forget to submit actions, and as long as the last scum isn't a PR, our victory is assured. Unless NTRP

is

the last scum, and he kills MCM... but the rolestopper will be on MCM every night to prevent that, so that's impossible.

Our last scum is one of Backhand/Grendel/Vedith. I'm thinking Backhand/Vedith includes at least one scum (looking back to the NotMafia wagon on day one). We have mislynches to spare, so I'm happy to vote for either of them. Backhand has the more votes currently, so -

VOTE: Backhand

[CCC]

So, should I be speaking about whether or not I got a Loyalty message from MCM last night?

[CCC]

So, should I be speaking about whether or not I got a Loyalty message from MCM last night?

yes. hard yes or no please.
same from giga and grendel mateys

Okie dokie, then.

Hard no

. I received nothing.

[CCC]

corrrect. unvote.
I did target him, totes.

UNVOTE: Backhand

[CCC]

@CCC

If you are town you need to come in here and talk to us.

Yeah, sorry about that silence. Had a couple of busy RL days.

But I don't think it really matters, how or what we vote for. Vedith's the last scum, now that Backhand's been cleared; but there's no way Town can lose this game, now, anyway. In fact... I don't think a Town victory has been avoidable since... hmmm... day Two, really.

Consider: MCM is a Loyal Friendly Neighbour. He can produce one more Innocent result every day. Our hidden Rolestopper just needs to keep his rolestoppingness parked on MCM, and MCM is immortal; and it won't be long for the confirmed Innocents to outnumber the non-confirmed Innocents. Mafia is forced to randomly try to guess the Rolestopper's identity. All Town has to do is follow the cop, while Mafia frantically scrambles for and tries to kill the Rolestopper (or other protective role, it doesn't matter, he is proven to be able to stop kills).

Mafia is known to have had a one-shot Role Cop. Somehow, I don't think that that comes anywhere close to balancing out the Town-sided power of the MCM/ProtectorRole combo alone. And, on top of that, to suggest that the Protector Role had a

backup

? We're talking about a pretty ludicrously Town-sided setup, here. Looking over the list of Normal roles, I have no idea what Mafia could have hiding in that last role that even begins to balance out this level of Town power; especially given that they have not been able to stop MCM yet.

Mafia could have a Traitor trying to help them out as well, I guess, but that Traitor won't do much at this point.

But, yeah. Between Backhand's claim, the day one all-Town wagon on NotMafia, and Vedith's role claim making this a ridiculously Town-sided game, I'm convinced Vedith's the last scum. Not that it matters - either NTRP or MCM will get another Innocent tonight, and we win. (Or one of them will get a guilty, and we win). Scum pretty much have to have another PR or a traitor or

something

, but I'm not sure it can help them at this point anyway. (Maybe scum have a rolestopper of their own, and are trying to guess and hit MCM's next target? Or a fruit vendor, so they can cause motion for someone else and mess up NTRP's results a little?)

VOTE: Vedith

[CCC]

nobody should be hammering this yet. mote to discuss same.
Paul, sit on grendel. if scum wants to kill they're forced to kill you because another inno is game.
of course, I simultaneously get an inno. so scum can shoot you and I can inno someone. *wew*

this is just an idea, so please give feedback but I think it's optimal for now
at day start do not claim if i target you. throw unrelated stuff around.
when I post, the thread should be completely quiet for 12 hours
the only time you post in said time is to claim you received my fn shot. claim immediately when you were my post, don't delay / cower
what does this do? basically, make it REALLY HARD for scum to fake inno themselves with a fake fn claim
I don't think losing 12 hours of discussion at max is a big loss with long days either but lmk thoughts mates

This sounds good, but I'd suggest 24hrs instead of 12. I'm in a bit of an unusual timezone (GMT+2) and thus may well sleep through most of a randomly-selected 12hr window.

[CCC]

When was Not-Mafia's wagon all conftown?

Well, Giga and NTRP aren't conftown, but they're certainly a lot Townier-looking than Vedith.

Not that it matters. Town's going to win, entirely mechanically, unless Scum have something up their sleeve, but I'm not seeing what Scum could have that could give them a chance.

[CCC]

tbh I think this is flipping town but oh well
I'll resolve what needs to be resolved tomorrow and we can lynch grendel or giga to hell

ya mmight get ideas but rolestopper sits on me, trust me.
Paul is probably getting killed but as not-conftown that keeps every conf town alive which is worth it ya see?

Vedith's the last scum. I'm telling you now 'cos I don't think I'll be around to tell you tomorrow.

[CCC]

wrong. I'll explain why cause I'm nice. this is not overly town sided breh.
my role is basically a cop. slight buff, but really worse overall xdue to lack of complete confirmation in results, a properly played town cop is never getting lynched anyways so meh.
town p much always has 2-3 prs in minis, more if they're weak
clearly rolestopper is a strong role if it exists, but rolestopper plus weak cop (I don't get actual results) is not a broken setup as of now
motion detector is a weak investigative. it makes sense as a 3rd and final pr. it's really strong NOW because there's 1 scum alive, but generally no. you'll play more and you'll come around

Yeah, your role is basically Cop, and MD doesn't make any difference. But, looking back at the grid used for newbie games, it doesn't allow Doc/Cop in the same game unless Scum gets a Roleblocker.

I'm not saying that Doc/Cop setups are impossible. I'm saying that it implies that scum must have

something

to stop the game from being practically an autowin for Town.

[CCC]

I think ccc meant 4 mafia with 1 being traitor, lol
4 mafia could technically be a thing... but this setup definitely is nowhere near that townsided at all

That's what I meant, yeah. Three Mafia plus a Traitor.

[CCC]

CCC's Vedith vote is pretty garbo.
But at the same time I don't really know what vote wouldn't seem garbo at this point.

I voted Vedith 'cos Vedith's pretty much got to be scum.

Doesn't matter if you mislynch me today or not. Town's got more than enough mislynches to win this game, no matter what happens. Vedith's going to be on the chopping block sooner or later, anyway.

[CCC]

Huh. That EV Project looks interesting.

Well played, Town. You left us with no hope, no way out and no way to win unless we got

super

lucky. Which we didn't. Our defeat was inevitable at the end, there. (In fact, I'd argue that our defeat was inevitable since about Day Two; implosion is right that things would have one massively differently had that N1 kill gone through). Town played pretty near perfectly, with only one misstep that I see after the game and even at that point we simply didn't take advantage of it (I'd argue that Cheet should technically have been on MCM Night Two - though it would have made no difference).

Also, I managed to survive Day One, which is always iffy for me.

[CCC]

I didn't think odds were very high that scum would try and shoot MCM again.
Most scumteams would shoot for the protective role.

Well, you weren't

wrong

. We

did

shoot for the protective role.