Micro 731 | Scumteam UnPick II - Endgame

[TheBrie]

Heya people.

I think claiming our pairs now sounds better, but After Vic's last post, i'm going to wait a bit. I don't think Highly of Vic's opinion, but it might be stupid to claim right now. The popcorn chain for the rest of the claiming has merit.

The only advantage to scum I can see from early claims is that they won't try to push a pair someone knows is impossible. But since people don't generally try to make associatives early on, and town can have horrible reads too, that advantage is almost nil.

Certainly don't lynch anyone without have all the claims made.

[TheBrie]

Actually thinking this over I don't like Vic, and I will claim now.

GuiltyLion + CommKnight

AcidPhoenix + Carcalilly

Um, I just realized I picked half of DuckDoggo. I suppose it still counted the same.

[TheBrie]

So Vic added Scylla & Char/Vungthingy, if I'm reading it correctly. Actually saying what it was would have been more useful.
And at least one head of DuckDoggo didn't understand the game. Though I'll admit I didn't perfectly follow it before I signed up.

[TheBrie]

I don't know why I forgot about duplicates, but when I initially calculated the number of scum teams I got double the number. So this game just got easier.

That said, I don't really like CommKnight's analysis. It's sound, but I think doing it early on is messing up the chance of a normal day 1 even though we don't intend to use it as a deciding tool. Constructing it could easily have waited until later. I do appreciate the work though, and certainly don't see this a scummy.

And as much as I like being seen as town, ruling out anyone as scum, just because they have few possible partners is slightly sloppy. Don't let PoE get in the way of real reads.

[TheBrie]

@Scylla As Comm said, he isn't scum reading me. He has seen a little of my play before, though only from the outside. He was the mod of my one scum game.


I wouldn't really expected a longer deadline when we get two lynches before N1. The two week deadline would make D1 up to 28 days long. It's going to be fun having no flips until the day ends. Tricky stuff.

[TheBrie]

@Kingmaker you're talking to Duckdoggo right? Not Vic? And I agree, that kind of sheeping is terribly lazy. And now that Comm isn't even voting there isn't worse. i don't want to put Ducko to L-1 yet though. We've got a few more days, and there still isn't much to go on.

[TheBrie]

Nah, probs not scum. Just stupid.

In order to be sure that none of the people he cleared is scum, we need to either lynch scum (which would be the point of lynching based on scum/townreads) or lynch me, ap, S&C, and one of his clears, and have all of those flip town.



So we have to lose, but we'll be absolutely sure of the scumteam if we do.

On the other hand, GL and CK both seem fairly town to me for scumhunting reasons.

I'm not sure I understand this perfectly. I see that lynching scum would clear some of us, but I don't follow the second part. Lynching a persons only possible partners and having them flip town would clear them, but I don't think that's what you're saying.

[TheBrie]

actually I kinda feel like DuckDoggo might be town with scum avoiding voting them

let's see if this wagon can get any traction

VOTE: CommKnight

Commknight as scum? He seems towny. But He also admitted (not in this game) to being a somewhat unconventional player. And I just lost a game to two scum that I didn't seriously suspect all game. So I don't trust myself.

But I agree that his more recent posts aren't so great.

What exactly are you saying about Duckdoggo? Wouldn't scum be more likely to vote him if he was town?

[TheBrie]

CommKnight, are you saying you town read me for other reasons that PoE?

As for the other reads, I'd really like it if both Comm and Guilty put up some more reasons. I'm seeing good points on the little from both sides and I'm feeling a little lost.

[TheBrie]

Yup I was talking to Doggo. I don't think calling a self proclaimed lazy vote lazy and voting them for it is terribly hardworking either though, so meh.

I don't see any merit in rushing the first lynch as we are not going to get any information out of it.

I just realized I don't understand the second half of that. Are you saying that if we would get information, we should rush it?

[TheBrie]

Okay, I follow that. So basically, we want to lynch someone right before the deadline. But make sure it doesn't get stalled. That sound okay with everyone?

[TheBrie]

I rather like what Vic said there. Most of it anyway.

My opinion of Ducko is that Sergtacos has a better handle on the game than Carcalilly. But I'm still not overly happy.

I'm not picking up on S&C being manipulative. Which makes me worry that I'm being subtly manipulated.

I'm still uncertain on Comm. On one hand he seems lazy, but he put a lot of work into his tables. Simply I don't trust anyone.

[TheBrie]

^Good points there. I think I had already mentioned that it would more sense if scum were voting them if they were town. (Why did that sentence come out so horribly? I'm supposed to be a writer and I can't even word properly.)

And I can see that with S&C. Too much dissonance. And though they're not trying to buddy me, I still don't like it.

VOTE: Scylla and Charybdis

[TheBrie]

Does this mean Vunglething will be posting soon?

[TheBrie]

^Good points there. I think I had already mentioned that it would more sense if scum were voting them if they were town. (Why did that sentence come out so horribly? I'm supposed to be a writer and I can't even word properly.)

And I can see that with S&C. Too much dissonance. And though they're not trying to buddy me, I still don't like it.

VOTE: Scylla and Charybdis

Why would we need to be buddying you for you not to like it? This is plausibly opportunity but I'm not sold.
So tell me your opinion on each point Vic Sage as you said they were good points.

-scylla

His points on you made sense, though I still don't fully trust Vic.

At the time, his argument for Comm being town seemed pretty sound, though Guilty's arguments the other way has its merits. I'm stuck there.

And I agree that bussing is not a good idea in this set up and scum are unlikely to do it.

[TheBrie]

I've had a family birthday and too much work and late nights. I'll get that read list earlier as I can tomorrow. Bed is now.

[TheBrie]

Townish:

Vic, his reasoning mostly seems good.
Guilty, also good content and reasoning. Makes the game hard because he and Vic don't agree.
Kingmaker, not so active, but asks good questions and seems to know what he's thinking.

Nullish:

Comm, I could swing either way with him. I liked him at first and now I don't, but I can see good reasons for him being and not being scum.
Vung, well duh. I really think he should have been replaced before now.

Scummish:
Scylla and Charybdis, besides what I've said before there's a little gut feeling here.
Duckdoggo, Maybe I just don't like hydras? They've not put much behind their vote on Comm.

However I doubt they're scum together. It just doesn't feel right. So I've missed something.

[TheBrie]

Hey RC.

I picked Guilty/Comm because I knew they were both good players. The others I'd looked at and thought looked reasonable good.

Carcalilly has actually disappointed me on that front. Sure being half of a hydra might change your competence a little, but now that i think about it's not as good as I'd expected.

[TheBrie]

Further: if Comm is town neither of us is getting nightkilled. I'm town. At some point Comm needs to die before any potential LyLo situations. Why not now?

What's that supposed to me?

Honestly, I'm really expecting a DD/CK scumteam at this point. If I'm wrong, CK will be useful given his level of activity. I can't say that DD would be.

You're expecting a DD/CK team but you're refusing to vote CK. Why is that vic sage?

Do you seriously think Vic could be scum, RC? Cause I might not fully trust him, but he seems like town. At least he did until you pointed out his recent inconsistencies regarding you and CK.

This tells me we can pseudo clear CK by lynching Doggo. If Doggo flips scum we have 1 scum in 3 people and 3 lynches. If he flips town, CK becomes conftown, or near enough to not matter. That means the CK wagon blows.

Would be a shame if Duckdoggo flipped town and CK became conftown, huh?

Could you explain that? I feel like there's some degree of sarcasm and a level of meaning I'm not picking up at my current level of brain function.

[TheBrie]

I follow that. I'm still not voting Vic, not today. And I'm not letting Comm pocket me. I don't see him as anywhere near town. You pretty much called me as town in this game too, so I'm not 100% sure you're not trying to pocket me yourself. In fact i should probably just lynch everyone who thinks I'm town, just to make sure they're not pocketing me.

[TheBrie]

I have slight reservations with CK's plan.

First, only RC's scumflip puts us in autowin territory. The others would still have more partner combinations open to them than remaining myslynches.

Second, basically everyone has a paranoia outcome from this proposed plan where we lose. For me it's S&C/GL. For basically everyone else its me/S&C. In fact, S&C is the only one for whom this negates every possible pairing.

I want Brie and GL to weigh in on this for me. Cowbells anger is coming across as genuine, which is my only real reason not to lynch him at this point. DD has disappeared since my most recent reasoning post. My gut screams at me to lynch the scummiest player first, but CK's not wrong about this narrowing down the field immensely.

Cowbells

, why does CK/King make sense to you?

As it is, I'd support a deadline lynch on Dogs or Cowbells. And I will be here till deadline.

I noticed that in Comm's chart, that he only has two pairing for RC. King and you. And he already 'plans' to lynch King. Based on that, from his point of view, i would think it would make more sense to lynch Scylla or Duckdoggo. So I don't really like his plan or planning method.

And while I'm a bit paranoid of RC from my previous game where he pocketed me, he's not coming across the same as he was in that game. I'd rather not lynch him today. He's an asset if he is town.

Now as for Duckdoggo, they're not trying to help town. They've been coasting and their recent inactivity has made me even less happy with them. And though I don't really like numbers reasoning at this stage, there's some good elimination there too.
As for Scylla, I'm still not really comfortable about them, but there's been nothing more scummy since I last commented, and they're obviously not getting lynched today. So I'll leave that for now.

VOTE: Duckdoggo

[TheBrie]

So I did. There's a difference in the scenarios though. You're locked as not scum with the people that I think are scum and I have experience reading you that he doesn't.
I can't make you believe that I'm town because anything that I can do here I could do as scum, but 6/8 of the time I'm scum and my reads are great as town.
Please just trust me here and you'll be vindicated later. I'm town and I'm pretty sure that I have this game almost solved.

I'm assuming that last bit was sarcasm, for the record.

It was. But I think you mean to say that 6/8 of the time you're town.

[TheBrie]

I'll have to think about it. I'm not doing what you say just because you say "Trust me." I've got RL stuff to do and I'll get back in a few hours. (housecleaning and cooking, yeah)

[TheBrie]

Can someone who isn't the recommended lynch from Comm's table please comment. GL, maybe. He's been absent too long and we want his feedback. Well I do at least.

I spotted one error in Comm's tables. For Vic, RC and King are equally optimal, bring them to equally optimal overall. And if I'm counting right, they come out the same as far as how many spots they'd clear. Duckdoggo would clear just as many either of them I think. So Comm isn't necessarily advocating the only optimal play, just the one he likes best.

Now with less than a day remaining, We've got to sort something out.

[TheBrie]

I wish I could say I understood that, but I'm tired. Too tited. Which is potentially as nad as others posting as drunk.
I prefer DuckDoggo, but I'll see in the morning.

[TheBrie]

Also I can't comprehend where these "chance of hitting scum tomorrow if we're both town" numbers are coming from. FMPOV with 2 scum in 5 alive in LYLO we have a 40% chance of hitting scum with the next lynch in a vacuum, 50% if the lynch is not on me. Can you repeat in a single line where this 10% vs 16% stuff coming from?

Good point. I hadn't even picked up on those numbers not making sense. Comm seems to have been acting as if we must do these lynches to have a reasonable chance of winning. But we have brains and can do more than random lynching from flip information tomorrow.

VOTE: CommKnight

@GLWhat do you think of Vic? I'm still inclined to see him as townish, but there's something to be said of the possible connection between him and Comm.

[TheBrie]

Duckdoggo ought to be prodded. In fact Creature should be prodded too. We need our Mod. I think I'll send him a message. (We could in practice, manage until the second lynch and the flips, but we shouldn't have to)

[TheBrie]

@Mod

Vung was replaced by RC. so he's not not voting.

[TheBrie]

Honestly, as long as I continue to be alive I'd be fine with handling vote counts for him. If I die and he's willing to shift me to backup mod I'd be fine handling everything for him.

I'm here for roughly 4 hours, but JIC

INTENT TO HAMMER CK IF WE CAN'T FLASH WAGON A BETTER CHOICE AT 7 PST.

In my experience, flash wagons have always landed on scum. Unless you mean to simply shift a few votes over to Duckdoggo, don't even talk about it?

[TheBrie]

Want to give any reasons? Because even if we're not swapping wagons, we have another lynch before the day ends. Might as well talk about it. Why Kingmaker?

I've still feel a bit like RC might be manipulating me. But he can be manipulative as town and when I played with him as scum I had no idea I was being manipulated.

[TheBrie]

Removing Scylla/Vic from contention

Is Scylla because they can't be scum with Comm?

[TheBrie]

I hope none of us are going to fully trust you to end game. Because fully trusting anyone is the stupidest thing you can do. Even conftown players can be wrong.

Someone needs to make a game when you're only allowed to do two posts in a row. Or some other post count description. You die if you have the highest post count or something like that.

[TheBrie]

Do you think that me/Commknight was a bus?

Umm, no. I hadn't taken into account that all your plans are resting on Comm being scum. I try not to make those assumptions. That makes a whole lot more sense now. Comm has four possible partners, and you're definitely the least likely.

[TheBrie]

Pie? I'm thinking that's a typo, but I can't figure out what it's supposed to mean?

[TheBrie]

Like, look at your post about lynching all three of me, doggo, King. I agree, if CK is scum that works pretty damn well. But you've picked literally the worst option of the three (from the PoV of someone outside of those three) for information should CK flip town. We shouldn't gamble the win on the chance for a perfect win. That's stupid.

And let's be real here. I've wanted to lynch dog for a week now, so when I say that the wagon on him is terribad, you should trust me that it's terribad.

I agree with this. In many ways Doggo is not the ideal lynch. Though replacements are always inconvenient and I don't like Doggo, I'm not lynching them unless something else of suspicion comes up, or it's the only option.

@RC, did you unvote to give a chance to the replacement, or because you secretly admit Vic is right here?

[TheBrie]

Well if you're wrong about Comm, Duck eliminates the least. Well except for me.
But you are confident and I am liking you. On checking it's not really that bad. If Comm turns out town, but Duck is scumm, there's only three partners to choose between and two of those are pretty unlikely. On the rare chance neither are scum, a Duck lynch only clears one less than all the other options excluding Scylla who can't be scum with Comm.

BTW, I'v made a chart a bit like Comm was using and can put it up if anyone cares to see it.

PEdit: @Vic, are you thinking King could be scum with Scylla? I really can't remember much interactions between them. I think Scylla might have said they didn't like King.

Why do people have to keep posting while I'm writing my post?

[TheBrie]

Dunk is a different player. This is Duckdoggo.

And I'm not sure what your question even means. But I'll answer what it might mean. I TR Guilty, so it's not him and Duck. And I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be Vic with the way he was trying to lynch Duck earlier. Which leaves Scylla.

[TheBrie]

I'm on my phone not my computer, but I can get that information for you in a hour or so.

@duckdoggo if you mean to be voting Vic, you'll need to redo it.

[TheBrie]

Scylla essentially clearing me in 281 still feels like scum would have said it differently with some sort of 'if RC is actually town.'

Scylla/Ducks I'd buy I guess. Scylla's still calling Ducks scum even though that lynch is autoloss for them but hasn't actually voted them.
Ducks/GL I'm writing off. there's no way that GL L-1s them and keeps the vote in autoloss when he's widely townread and can vote pretty much anywhere here.
Scylla/TheBrie I'll discuss at some other time.

Scylla/GL Scylla called GL town from very early on in the game but never explained it. almost never discusses them. least discussed person in the game by far from that slot.
Both of them excluded one scumteam from the other,

Gambler's fallacy is assuming that future probabilities are influenced/affected by past outcomes of independent events. So I don't see a Gambler's fallacy in CK's post

However, the way he retaliated with a vote and a "last time someone said that they were scum" argument is terrible. S&C looks town to me, and CK didn't actually address any of the real substance of S&C's argument/post, instead latching onto a (incorrectly applied) buzzword

feels kinda chainsawy and there's no explanation of this townread that immediately puts S&C into the top echelon of GL's townblock. spends a lot of time questioning scumreads on S&C but then in 147 they're no longer a top townread but not in the lynchpool. 288 could be a lazy scum vote on a town wagon.

Do you really think GL/Scylla is possible? I'm note sure I follow this. Your first point in the post seems to indicate a town lean on Scylla, but you're obviously not continuing in that. Which is probably smart. But I'd like to understand what you're saying here.

GL hasn't been discussed much by anyone. Which is almost worrying. I still TR him, but that's all based off the beginning of the game. Lately he's been rather quiet and I'd like to know if that's normal fro him. Does anyone know?

[TheBrie]

I didn't prefer to lynch you over the person I thought was scum. I preferred to lynch you over the person who I saw as scummy due to the possibility he was scum with my scum suspect. I always wanted to lynch doggo. I saw CK as someone who could basically only be scum with one person and someone who was more likely to post and add content than 90% of the thread. I maintain that his lynch was terrible.

I think that makes sense. Though right now the amount of content you and RC produced is annoying me. I haven't had enough sleep it's just hard to follow.
I'm going to disappear for the rest of the day. Please somebody yell at me if i appear again. (and now I know hoe really tired I am, almost wrote lynch me, instead of yell at me.)

[TheBrie]

What Kingmaker is saying there seems to make sense. Though if he were scum, that could be an attempt to make sure he does survive. Making his position so bad that he obviously isn't scum. But enough of coming up with crazy theories behind everyone's actions.

I don't think we're going to get any further with discussion without knowing anything. Duckdoggo is scummy and the best partner for Comm. So..

VOTE: DuckDoggo

[TheBrie]

I've been reading back over the game and I think that Scylla is scum with Kings.

Scylla didn't vote at all in the second half of day one. They said they scum read both Kings and Duck by PoE they didn't or push either way. They just seemed content to let it happen.

That means RC is town. I get that from a few other things too. He feels differnt to our last game. More gamesolvey and less like he's trying to convince everyone he's town.

Now, I looked over some of King's other games. There's not many, and they're all town, but they're a bit differnt to this one. He's been more single mined in this game than a town one I looked at. He was put out his opinions on all the players more, and wasn't so narrowly focused or convinced on his reads. That last post does sound more townie, but I already gave a reason why doing something stupid for scum isn't stupid if it makers you look townie.

Scylla saying he scumread Kings yesterday and not pushing Duck, does point away from this, but Kings wasn't getting lynched anyway.

I looked back at GL's scum play in Oddrole IV and this isn't the same. He seems more detached here, less aggressive. His arguments have been well constructed and I think he's town here.

I won't vote now though.

[TheBrie]

RC why did you hammer without hearing from S&C on either of our questions towards them

I was not at all expecting a double town flip and Carca's last posts were awful.
Sorry I fucked this up pretty bad.

SC+Brie
SC+GL
SC+Kings
Kings+GL

Right now I feel like it's GL+SC but I don't really have time to work on anything

don't vote.

RC, why did you initially think GL+SC? I mean it's theoretically possible, but I don't think GL is scum.

BTW, that new avatar is kind of cool, but the change is annoying me. It's almost like you're another person.

[TheBrie]

I have been the only one posting on this account.
-Scylla

Am I reading this right? The hydra isn't a hydra?
Where did that early hydra dissonance come from then?

[TheBrie]

I see now. Charybdis did post a few times early on and I never quite realized it was just you after that. Should have noticed. But I don't like your play either way.

I'm going to be Semi V/LA for the next couple of days. I've got a few things that must be done, and a friend's sudden death reminded me of the seriousness of life. I'll still try to post a few time though.

[TheBrie]

I'm really liking GL for town here.

Scylla certainly hasn't improved in my estimation. Not only was post 420 manipulative, it doesn't make sense as town. Maybe scum wouldn't have bussed, but that would tend to push them into doing it.

And I can't say anything for King. He hasn't posted, so there's nothing knew to read him on.

[TheBrie]

I've only played 1 or 2 games here and that was 3-4 years ago

I just realized this makes TheBrie attempting to meta you pretty bad

Brie - why would the difference in King's past town games that you pointed out be due to an alignment change in this game and not just a personality/playstyle change from them being several years old?

I didn't look at the dates. Forgot people do quite and come back again. I was actually guessing Kings was someones alt cause he seems experienced. So scrap that meta. i still think Scylla is scummy, but I need to ISO RC again to make sure he's not hoodwinking me.

As for me and Scylla, why would I be hard bussing him, and why would have we killed Vic. Wouldn't I leave him alive seeing as he thought us together was ridiculous?

[TheBrie]

Like, look at your post about lynching all three of me, doggo, King. I agree, if CK is scum that works pretty damn well. But you've picked literally the worst option of the three (from the PoV of someone outside of those three) for information should CK flip town. We shouldn't gamble the win on the chance for a perfect win. That's stupid.

And let's be real here. I've wanted to lynch dog for a week now, so when I say that the wagon on him is terribad, you should trust me that it's terribad.

I agree with this. In many ways Doggo is not the ideal lynch. Though replacements are always inconvenient and I don't like Doggo, I'm not lynching them unless something else of suspicion comes up, or it's the only option.

@RC, did you unvote to give a chance to the replacement, or because you secretly admit Vic is right here?

What Kingmaker is saying there seems to make sense.

Though if he were scum, that could be an attempt to make sure he does survive. Making his position so bad that he obviously isn't scum. But enough of coming up with crazy theories behind everyone's actions.

I don't think we're going to get any further with discussion without knowing anything. Duckdoggo is scummy and the best partner for Comm. So..

VOTE: DuckDoggo

Brie can you talk about how you went from the sentiment in 300 to the vote in 359?

And the bit in the second post about Kingmaker bothers me. The shade at King's slot doesn't really feel organic

Duck came back, wasn't any more useful, and some of the arguing swayed me more towards lynching him. I was tired of the days arguing and thought that if we were wrong about one of them, the information from the flips would be enough for us to figure things out. I wasn't really happy about any other lynches either then. Scylla and Comm was impossible, and though I didn't like some of Kings posts, I could come up with scum and town reasoning behind them.

[TheBrie]

What other questions did people have for me? I'm not in the right state of mind to pick them all out.

[TheBrie]

If you mean would I knight kill you if I were scum? Maybe. But I think I would prefer GL. And then I would pull a paranoia lynch on you today.

If you're wondering if I still think you're town, then the answer is that Scylla is scummier, and work has kept me from re-reading. But you are twisting my mind around in circles.

If you want to know if I enjoy playing with you, I'm not answering.

[TheBrie]

Though if it is you and Kings, then you're soft bussing, so I should give you some town cred right?

I was about to say you didn't buss in scumhunters, but you actually did so strongly. If I wasn't feeling lazy, I'd go look for scum games of your where you didn't buss.

[TheBrie]

I posted. I know I posted. I spent like half a hour gathering my thoughts. What happened to it?

[TheBrie]

It's pretty fucking unfair that everyone did virtually nothing outside of Scylla today and I don't get a chance to influence the lynch tomorrow.

What on earth is that supposed to mean?

[TheBrie]

My last post was annoyed at my computer not you.

And don't go easier on me just because of that. He wasn't a close friend at all, so it's not a personal loss. It was just a bit of a shock and a reminder of the uncertainty of life. When you consider that you could die any day, games just don't seem important.

But you didn't explain your last question or answer my question about why you town read me.

[TheBrie]

Wait that was in the missing post. Id mentioned how Scylla was right that you'd not questioned your town read on me. With the exception of arguing with Vic when he claimed Scylla/Me was a dumb team. Which argument Scylla didn't mention.

[TheBrie]

Now that I think about it, your read on me makes me geel more confident in my read on you. Scum!RC only needs one more myslynch and ought to push me with Scylla, instead of GL or Kings. But I still want a reason for the read.

Because Kings isn't objectively very scummy though he's left wiggle room in his reads. I get him as scum more by PoE. Unless I'm wrong on GL, Kings is scum.

(my thoughts earlier have mostly stuck in my head fortunately)

[TheBrie]

Here's me posting and not hammering. I hadn't realized RC was voting Scylla already.

[TheBrie]

RC could be scum.
VOTE: Scylla

[TheBrie]

It's town sided, but we won.

I'm alright with everyone seeing how much RC helped me.

[TheBrie]

I want to see the dead thread.

[TheBrie]

You messed up the balance, RC.

The chart above reminded me I had flipped my exclusions around. It's a good thing I did, or Comm/Duck would never had been an option.

[TheBrie]

And now I want to know who you are.

[TheBrie]

I did already say it could be opened. Maybe not very directly. So yes.

[TheBrie]

I saw what you said, but obviously ignored it.