Micro 731 | Scumteam UnPick II - Endgame

[GuiltyLion]

Hi everyone!

I think we should do what the players did the last time this was run, and claim our picks early to get all the information now on eliminated pairings. Note that even if scum lie about who they picked, they cannot pick themselves, so it's still a guaranteed impossible scumpair.

My picks were Brie+acidphoenix and CommKnight+Scylla and Charybdis. When I get to a computer later I can start putting this info into a table

P-edit: lol ninjad, and with a same pick too :/

[GuiltyLion]

I like this version of the table:

	acidphoenix	Vic Sage	Scylla and Charybdis	CommKnight	GuiltyLion	Duckdoggo	TheBrie	vungrzlfrys
acidphoenix	X						O
Vic Sage		X			O
Scylla and Charybdis			X	O
CommKnight			O	X	O
GuiltyLion		O		O	X
Duckdoggo						X
TheBrie	O						X
vungrzlfrys								X

where "X" is just denoting an impossible team and "O" is denoting a ruled-out team that someone picked. Eligible teams have blank spaces in the table. I'll make a final version once everyone's claimed their picks.

[GuiltyLion]

whoops sorry I made a mistake in that table above, here's a corrected version cause that was gonna bug me

	acidphoenix	Vic Sage	Scylla and Charybdis	CommKnight	GuiltyLion	Duckdoggo	TheBrie	vungrzlfrys
acidphoenix	X						O
Vic Sage		X			O
Scylla and Charybdis			X	O
CommKnight			O	X	O
GuiltyLion		O		O	X
Duckdoggo						X	O
TheBrie	O					O	X
vungrzlfrys								X

after this I'll wait until we get the rest of the picks in

[GuiltyLion]

First, I think we should treat this as a normal Day 1 until we're close to ending it in order to get better associatives. It seems really easy to me for scum to hide in the mechanic, and it seems like we'll get more information and associatives out of a normal D1.

Can you elaborate on this? I thought about this point before the game started and I rejected it.

"better associatives"

- Scum already know the exact team and therefore they also know that all other teams are ruled out to them. They also already know they need to mask the association with their partner and that doesn't change just because other potential partners get ruled out. If anything, the job becomes harder, because town will be looking more critically at a narrower pool of players they could be working with.

Scum currently have the full advantage in terms of information, whereas town is operating with no information to help solve the game. Confirming that two players cannot be scum together is strictly pro-town information, I don't see how scum would benefit from having a publicly reduced set of options of town-town teams to push as scum or townies who could plausibly be partnered with them. I think ruling out possibilities provides a sharper focus to the possibilities that remain, which would also make for better analysis/arguments over associatives. Imagine if someone is pushing a scumread, yet also claims to townread the only viable partners for that player - this is helpful to look at and analyze, and makes it harder for scum to present plausible fake views of the game state.

You say we'll get "more" information if we don't claim picks, but I feel that most of that information becomes useless noise as soon as teams relevant to that information are ruled out.

"hide in the mechanic"

- I think we should still play through a mostly normal D1, but with slightly more information than usual, as soon as all the ruled-out pairings are collected. And given that we're going to collect claims eventually, it's best to collect them ASAP. I don't really think there's much room for someone to hide in the mechanic if we're quick and efficient about it.

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Vic Sage

[GuiltyLion]

Then i have a strong TR on GuiltyLion because his mindset is very similar to mine at the moment.

I really haven't done much at all yet this game, and if I were scum I'd know I need to play along with the pro-town strategy. What have I done that makes you think I can't be scum?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm willing to sheep this because I'm too lazy to do the analysis myself
VOTE: vic

And ig don't worry too much about Day1 being abnormal. People will probably defend themselves and others the best they can, so we can prob still work on those.

this is a bad and lazy vote, I think vic is town

UNVOTE:

VOTE: duckdoggo

[GuiltyLion]

@Creature - can we get a deadline pause while vung-slot hasn't posted yet? Are they going to be replaced?

I didn't realize the deadlines are shorter than normal, we need to be a bit more aggressive. What do you all think of Duckdoggo?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm willing to sheep this because I'm too lazy to do the analysis myself
VOTE: vic

And ig don't worry too much about Day1 being abnormal. People will probably defend themselves and others the best they can, so we can prob still work on those.

this is a bad and lazy vote, I think vic is town

UNVOTE:

VOTE: duckdoggo

Obviously
Is it bad just because you townread them?

yes

Do you think Vic is scum, and if no, why are you voting him

[GuiltyLion]

Also @Scylla, pay close attention to my posts. I don't SR TheBrie. I TR her because it's highly unlikely she's scum and I have no real reason to SR her atm.

I was posting half asleep, and meant town, not scum.
Saying you town read someone because it's highly unlikely that they are scum is just bad imo.
It's gamblers fallacy, or whatever you call it.

The point of revealing who the picks were was to give us the possibilities of scum, not to read players from it.

I suggest you change your view on the Brie and stop acting like it's a town slot for that reason alone.

-Scylla

Between this post and the one directly after. I'll tell you what I'll do.

VOTE: Scylla

Gambler's fallacy. That was mentioned to me before. But you know who mentioned it? Scum. When i had multiple townies pegged and the entire scum team pegged into a smaller pool.

I'll reconsider my read on TheBrie in TOMORROW's stage. But in today's I'm interested in getting 2 lynches that will more likely both be on scum.

Gambler's fallacy is assuming that future probabilities are influenced/affected by past outcomes of independent events. So I don't see a Gambler's fallacy in CK's post

However, the way he retaliated with a vote and a "last time someone said that they were scum" argument is terrible. S&C looks town to me, and CK didn't actually address any of the real substance of S&C's argument/post, instead latching onto a (incorrectly applied) buzzword

[GuiltyLion]

I like Kingmaker's entrance

town: {S&C, Kingmaker, Vic}
null: {The Brie, vung-slot-that-hasn't-posted-yet}
scummier than null: {CK, DuckDoggo}

[GuiltyLion]

actually I kinda feel like DuckDoggo might be town with scum avoiding voting them

let's see if this wagon can get any traction

VOTE: CommKnight

[GuiltyLion]

What exactly are you saying about Duckdoggo? Wouldn't scum be more likely to vote him if he was town?

I had looked at the Duckdoggo wagon again (when I had made that post), and didn't see anyone I thought was scum on it, despite the fact that it was an early wagon and there wasn't anything particularly AI or scummy behind what content Duckdoggo had posted. So then I thought it might be the case that scum is dancing around an eventual mislynch that they could conveniently hop on at deadline, and I wanted to push in another direction to see what happened.

[GuiltyLion]

Show me why the 3 of them are town. Make a case for them. Because from where I stand they're the 3 candidates for scum. I wouldn't be surprised if both scum are in the 3.

I don't like town-casing, I much prefer people to make scumcases. If I make a correct town-case, it wouldn't tell you anything about my alignment (because scum!me would know that they are town), and if I make an incorrect town-case (on scum) it is a waste of time and ultimately hurts town if it's convincing enough. I believe mafia is best played with people selling their scumreads and the people townreading those scumreadings evaluating the strength of the case.

Why do you think S&C is scum? Is it just because of the gambler's fallacy comment, or is there anything more there?

[GuiltyLion]

actually I kinda feel like DuckDoggo might be town with scum avoiding voting them

let's see if this wagon can get any traction

VOTE: CommKnight

Any particular reason he's scum and not just lazy town?

I think Comm's escalation of the "gambler's fallacy" comment was a bad reply and more likely to be scum-motivated. Instead of arguing with S&C's

point

(which is that Comm was using odds to townread people and generally making reads from the table), Comm instead attacks the terminology (using a 1 game past experience sample ) as a reason to scumread S&C. Comm was escalating the argument (scummy) instead of justifying his thought process (townie).

CK is too angry about people wanting to do things he doesn't see as optimal to be anything other than town. Like, if I'm scum I argue the best play for town and then get really happy if people ignore it. You don't get mad at people for playing in a way you think is anti town.

I disagree with this, I think if I'm scum I'd milk the "optimal town strategy" for as much towncred as I can. Especially if I can still use the strategy to push mislynches, which seems entirely possible here.

[GuiltyLion]

The only other one I'd be willing to lynch is Kingmaker at the moment

why Kingmaker?

[GuiltyLion]

honestly that's about all I got, I reread the last couple pages and I don't have much new to add. I think Vic and Kingmaker are my two strongest townreads. I'd probably most like to flip DuckDoggo and Comm but the absence of the vung slot is killing the game. I don't see flipping it as useful at the moment especially without any knowledge of what its picks were.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm still fine with my vote. I don't like how CK is trying to push both RC being an "optimal" mechanics lynch and that he's also scum simultaneously. If CK truly believes in RC as a mechanics lynch he should just push that angle, but the way he's trying to foster paranoia over scum!RC and claim that he's scum looks faked to me to try to supplement his agenda lynch. Like RC had done nothing strongly indicative at all before CK went full into "RC is scum" mode, and CK pushing him for his readslist felt pretty disingenuous.

Also, there was already a pretty good chance that either CK or DD would have gone through at the time that RC replaced into the game and I think if he were scum and they were both town then he would have scumread someone generally townread like me or Vic and made a bunch of noise about that while whiteknighting the existing mislynches.

[GuiltyLion]

Also I can't comprehend where these "chance of hitting scum tomorrow if we're both town" numbers are coming from. FMPOV with 2 scum in 5 alive in LYLO we have a 40% chance of hitting scum with the next lynch in a vacuum, 50% if the lynch is not on me. Can you repeat in a single line where this 10% vs 16% stuff coming from?

[GuiltyLion]

Also I picked acidphoenix/Brie because I saw acidphoenix win a scum newbie game and Brie seems to always be nearly universally townread and I thought if she's good at scum she could possibly exploit that

picked CK and S&C because I played with CK before too and because I hate scum hydras

[GuiltyLion]

Yeah I'm kinda in one of those "this can't be this easy but I'm just not scumreading anyone else" mindsets here, I don't have a reason to not think it's Comm/Doggo.

VOTE: DuckDoggo

L-1

[GuiltyLion]

@ Scylla/GL can I get a walk through of your reads on each other throughout the game?

can do

I'm more concerned to why Brie is such scum read to Comm.
Comm - Got history with Brie?

Scylla

Also @Scylla, pay close attention to my posts. I don't SR TheBrie. I TR her because it's highly unlikely she's scum and I have no real reason to SR her atm.

I was posting half asleep, and meant town, not scum.
Saying you town read someone because it's highly unlikely that they are scum is just bad imo.
It's gamblers fallacy, or whatever you call it.

The point of revealing who the picks were was to give us the possibilities of scum, not to read players from it.

I suggest you change your view on the Brie and stop acting like it's a town slot for that reason alone.

-Scylla

Also, I'd like to point out that CK is basing his strategy entirely around the mechanic instead of scumhunting. Like I said would happen.

I like this post. And it just makes me think that Vic Sage is town more.
There is absolutly no reason for using the picks as a way to read someone.
We know what we can look for between scum conenctions, and the way people react to one another.

Vic - Opinion on Comm here? Do you think it's town just over stepping what the information was for, or scum motivated to appear town?

-Scylla

I thought these three posts all showed town mindset and were aligned with my thought processes in a way that made me think S&C was town. The call out of Comm's meh reasoning for townreads in 60 and 67, plus the reach out to a townread for discussion on Comm in 68 I thought all looked town motivated given my similar townread on Vic and scumread on Comm. Which is reflected in my readslist here:

town: {S&C, Kingmaker, Vic}
null: {The Brie, vung-slot-that-hasn't-posted-yet}
scummier than null: {CK, DuckDoggo}

After that I basically didn't take a hard look at them anymore, I thought their engagement with Vic in 130 and 135 felt pretty townie as well but I don't feel they've had as much of a D1 presence/push-for-more-information as Vic/King which is why I didn't include them in my 147.

[GuiltyLion]

I still TR him, but that's all based off the beginning of the game. Lately he's been rather quiet and I'd like to know if that's normal fro him. Does anyone know?

it's not, I was on a trip this past weekend with some college friends so my activity was down sitewide. I'll be much more present going forward, but this particular game also doesn't have much that's struck me. I feel like the most likely universe is still Comm/Doggo and I feel I'd be artificially scumreading someone else if I tried to push elsewhere at the moment. I don't see anything that Vic/RC are doing as scum-motivated.

[GuiltyLion]

Votecount 1.1.5

Votecount 1.1.5

[0] Kingmaker
[1] Vic Sage - Duckdoggo
[0] Scylla and Charybdis

[5] CommKnight - Kingmaker, GuiltyLion, RadiantCowbells, TheBrie, Vic Sage [LYNCH]

[0] GuiltyLion
[1] Duckdoggo - Scylla and Charybdis
[0] TheBrie
[1] RadiantCowbells - CommKnight

[0] Nolynch

Not voting:

8 players are alive, therefore 5 votes is the majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-07-31 01:52:12)

looking at this, I suppose if CommKnight is town and DuckDoggo is town then S&C is pretty likely to be scum, sitting off the wagon. I think in town!Comm universe I'd say a S&C/King team is the most likely, so if we want to lynch outside of DD then let's do S&C.

S&C, why aren't you seeing King as town?

[GuiltyLion]

RC why did you hammer without hearing from S&C on either of our questions towards them

[GuiltyLion]

	acidphoenix	Vic Sage	Scylla & Char	CommKnight	GuiltyLion	Duckdoggo	TheBrie	vungrzlfrys
acidphoenix	X	X		X		O	O
Vic Sage	X	X			O		O
Scylla & Char	X	X	X	O				O
CommKnight	X	X	X	X	O		O
GuiltyLion	X	X	X	X	X	O	O
Duckdoggo	X	X	X	X	X	X	O	O
TheBrie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
vungrzlfrys	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X

X

= Duplicate

X

= Impossibe

O

= Ruled Out

If I'm not mistaken, here's the table now:

	Kingsmaker	Vic Sage	Scylla & Char	CommKnight	GuiltyLion	Duckdoggo	TheBrie	RC
Kingsmaker	X	X		X		O	O
Vic Sage	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Scylla & Char	X	X	X	O		X		O
CommKnight	X	X	X	X	O	X	O	X
GuiltyLion	X	X	X	X	X	O	O
Duckdoggo	X	X	X	X	X	X	O	O
TheBrie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
RC	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X

possible teams are:
Kings/S&C
Kings/GL
Kings/RC
S&C/GL
S&C/TheBrie
RC/GL
RC/TheBrie

FMPOV:
Kings/S&C
Kings/RC
S&C/TheBrie
RC/TheBrie

I'm going to take a harder look at Brie's play D1 in a sec, I don't see why I towned her in my head so quickly looking at the remaining teams FMPOV.

I thought Kings' last post yesterday was very townie, anyone disagree?

[GuiltyLion]

the one I asked you or the one about Kings?

[GuiltyLion]

I wanted to start talking to you, mainly. I don't think I can read you that well but I do think you tend to be more aggressive and belligerent as scum so if you immediately started trying to escalate a 1v1 against me I figured that might point to you being scum. I don't disagree about being surprised at the double town flip though

with the Kings question I'm basically just asking if anyone is scumreading him and pointing to his most recent post as a reason I currently still think he's town. But I'm gonna do a reread of the game with the Vic flip in mind tonight.

[GuiltyLion]

TheBrie kills me last night. She's a lot less lynchable with only one possible scumpartner and I'm positive that she would have been terrified of me. I don't think Scylla prevents that kill to kill Vic. That clears her fmpov

I feel this as a good argument against TheBrie/S&C team but I want some Brie reads

FMPOV there's at least one townie and one scum in {Kings/TheBrie} and at least one townie and one scum in {RC/S&C}
gut feeling was Kings ISO by itself is townier than Brie's, but I think yours is townier than S&Cs and I do think S&C is independently the scummiest of all 4.

this is all without a reread though

[GuiltyLion]

here's a shotgun of some reread thoughts

Gambler's fallacy. That was mentioned to me before. But you know who mentioned it? Scum. When i had multiple townies pegged and the entire scum team pegged into a smaller pool.

I do hope that the defensive stance doesn't keep up through out the game.

I'm not going to argue about what % of gamblers fallacy comes from either side, but

I do expect you to start giving some serious reads and reasons going forward

.

-Scylla

knowing that Comm is town, I find the bolded here somewhat scummy. S&C is talking to him as if he knows Comm is town

@Vic

What are your thoughts on this?

You don't like them buddying up to Vic but meanwhile you are... buddying up to Vic? Kinda mixed signals there.

^not damning but this makes a lot of sense for a King-S&C team. Kings trying to get Vic to suspect Brie's vote on S&C. King - what was your angle here?

Sorry, but I had a pet die today and I'm not feeling up to dealing with you all at the moment. I'll be back tomorrow.

It's all good man, real life comes first. It's why I'm not able to post what I wanted to post yet, don't even got the time right now to post the full length of it all.

__________________________________________________________________________________

So my reasons for TR'ing GuiltyLion and TheBrie has to do with their play and attitude thus far in the game. Not because of my table. My table just helps further increase the chances of me being correct on those reads and thus less doubt in them.

VOTE: Vung - There's a good chance this slot is scum and it'd at least free up the mod from finding a replacement. The only other one I'd be willing to lynch is Kingmaker at the moment. Everyone else I'd rather have 7 more days to sort better for the second lynch.

Really? After basing all your game plan on this, making tables and threatening(and voting) other people because of this mechanic you're suggesting we should lynch one person whose picks we don't know, who hasn't posted even one post yet, who will be probably replaced even before first deadine hits - because they might flip scum due to

pure luck

? Don't you even have

one

scum read you'd rather vote?

I can't see any ways to justify this play coming from town, I really can't.

this is a little melodramatic

There's a reason we're the top 3 wagons.
If others think it's worth us being votes then why can't RC?

We chose my names as it's the only names we knew in the game.
We actually thought I was picking Scum teams but that's because we don't read.

So to me Brie should just be town.
I don't read this as Scum RC and GL/Vic Sage are both posting as town for me.

That leaves 3 people as Scum. Comm, Duck, and King Maker.

King Comm
Comm Duck

I'll do a proper post shortly today. Limited on time.

-Scylla

so I don't feel like I ever understood why S&C was scumreading Kingsmaker. I'd really like for them to explain that read ASAP and whether it has changed with the flips. Also, since S&C/RC is confirmed not a team, FMPOV knowing one of them is town, the bit about "why can't RC think we're worth votes" looks a lot more like potentially buddying RC than it does town!S&C giving RC a pass

[GuiltyLion]

If it's Scylla/GL I was kept around because you thought I could mislynch me, not because you planned to fool me.

You realise who I am and there fore this comment is 100% a lie, right?

-Scylla

wait what? Does RC know who you are? How?

[GuiltyLion]

and what happened to your Kingsmaker scumread? Can you reply to the question I've been asking you (356, 385) about why you were scumreading Kingsmaker and whether that changed with the flips?

[GuiltyLion]

Sorry if your ego took a hit there [blank] but if my default is to scumread you I don't think I'm going to randomly start townreading you because you're scum and you shouldn't either.

oh I guess this does imply RC knows who you are

[GuiltyLion]

so you think it's RC/Kings? Why'd you vote RC first?

[GuiltyLion]

I'll get to this at lunch - was kind of hoping to see more content from King in the meantime but looks like I'm gonna have to take more initiative. I still think S&C/King is the most likely team but I'll put a lot more work in in a bit

[GuiltyLion]

if I'm scum with either S&C or Kingmaker it seems like I could win by mislynching the other, with bussing my buddy as a viable backup plan for toDay. scum!me would also likely have to consistently project a TR on Vic as I was townreading him all game. So if I killed you over Vic, it doesn't really matter to me who Vic votes on D2, I pitch the S&C/Kings team and if he votes my buddy I bus and if he votes the mislynch I win. Vic was TRing me by play so I don't think he'd vote me today over one of those two.

Seems like pretty much the same plan with you alive if I kill Vic here and TR you, only your TR on me was weaker than his and I could maybe plausibly reverse my TR on you in a pinch if needed as well. It's hard for me to say what exactly I would have done - you're kinda unpredictable which generally makes you more scary but I wouldn't necessarily think the game would be lost if you were alive today - even if I were lynched, my partner could try to frame you for bussing or kill you and try to win the 1v1 against S&C/King. And if my buddy were lynched I think I'd have a fighting chance in any of the GL/S&C/Brie, GL/King/RC, GL/King/Brie 3p LYLOs.

I would have a lot of options to consider so I can't necessarily say I would definitely kill you over Vic. I think it'd be a slightly easier 5p win if I left him alive than if I didn't since we were townreading eachother, but honestly I think I most likely would have killed Brie because a Vic/S&C team would also still be on the table and so the general paranoia between all four of Vic/S&C/King/RC would have given me a lot to work with.

[GuiltyLion]

And the next person to vote RC I'll town lock for the next lynch, just because Scum won't be bussing that easily.

this feels to me like scum trying to goad a vote onto the game winning mislynch by baiting town into wanting to prove that they're town. I don't get why town would think like this or say this in 5p LYLO. It's manipulative.

[GuiltyLion]

I have to go back to work, this lunch break has gone on too long, but my reads are generally like, I want to believe it's just S&C/King but I haven't worked through the "this is too easy" paranoia and I also need to think more about why Vic would be killed instead of me in that world. I'll keep this game in the back of my mind today and post more after work.

[GuiltyLion]

Do you really think if Vic wasn't the nightkill that you would have been the shot over me?

not particularly, but I want to be sure that I'm not alive because scum want me alive for my vote today. if it's King/RC or Brie/RC then my townread on you is pretty valuable, though Vic was also townreading you as well so in the end I don't see that as an especially strong reason to keep me alive over him, and I'm not sure scum!RC would have anticipated a S&C tunnel/vote on him immediately today.

I just need to work through everything in my head before coming to a decision. I like the point you made about S&C's tunnel being optimal play for scum!them as well. I'm starting to get to the point where King's absence is actively making him more and more scummy in my mind

[GuiltyLion]

If I'm mis lynched, that's down to town being bad, not you being good, lets just get that straight for a start.

I've seen scum!Vedith pull this "if I'm lynched town is bad" crap before - here

[GuiltyLion]

There is zero reason to drag this game out.

one reason is that reads/play from King would be really useful right now

why aren't you considering a GL/RC team?

[GuiltyLion]

If I had to vote right now I would vote you but I'm neither sure enough to want to place my vote down nor willing to risk GL voting and you selfhammering and me getting no say in F3.

what do you currently think of F3?

[GuiltyLion]

so King went from being a PoE scumread to town because he hasn't done anything today?

[GuiltyLion]

if King is town, that's all the more reason to drag this game out, so he can towntell and work with me (and hypothetical town!you) effectively

[GuiltyLion]

King - I'd like your opinion on RC's argument against a S&C/Brie team, that they would have NK'd him.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm having a hard time making sense of them flipping from RC/King to RC/Brie as well

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like this game is gonna come down to me making the correct decision between King/Brie and I currently have no faith in my ability to make that correct decision. I'm feeling pretty good about scum!Scylla over scum!RC

[GuiltyLion]

Like, look at your post about lynching all three of me, doggo, King. I agree, if CK is scum that works pretty damn well. But you've picked literally the worst option of the three (from the PoV of someone outside of those three) for information should CK flip town. We shouldn't gamble the win on the chance for a perfect win. That's stupid.

And let's be real here. I've wanted to lynch dog for a week now, so when I say that the wagon on him is terribad, you should trust me that it's terribad.

I agree with this. In many ways Doggo is not the ideal lynch. Though replacements are always inconvenient and I don't like Doggo, I'm not lynching them unless something else of suspicion comes up, or it's the only option.

@RC, did you unvote to give a chance to the replacement, or because you secretly admit Vic is right here?

What Kingmaker is saying there seems to make sense.

Though if he were scum, that could be an attempt to make sure he does survive. Making his position so bad that he obviously isn't scum. But enough of coming up with crazy theories behind everyone's actions.

I don't think we're going to get any further with discussion without knowing anything. Duckdoggo is scummy and the best partner for Comm. So..

VOTE: DuckDoggo

Brie can you talk about how you went from the sentiment in 300 to the vote in 359?

And the bit in the second post about Kingmaker bothers me. The shade at King's slot doesn't really feel organic

[GuiltyLion]

I'm having a hard time making sense of them flipping from RC/King to RC/Brie as well

That can be explained if he is scum, but if he is scum(and it really looks that way from here)... why do this all-in gamble in lylo instead of playing safer and pushing for a mislynch to win the game? My head hurts.

I guess for scum!S&C, they could see town sentiment would turn against them today between RC/myself, and if they push for the mislynch to win the game between me/King/Brie then it could potentially confirm that person as not their buddy, which would give a second "conf"town to have to NK or take to 3p in addition to RC.

That seems more likely to me than town!S&C feeling this certain of scum!RC over a pretty flimsy and unconvincing argument, and then barely making an effort to sway me.

[GuiltyLion]

also wait isn't RC the mislynch to win in LYLO?

[GuiltyLion]

That can be explained if he is scum, but if he is scum(and it really looks that way from here)... why do this all-in gamble in lylo instead of playing safer and pushing for a mislynch to win the game? My head hurts.

yeah explain to me what you mean by "all-in gamble instead of pushing for a mislynch"? At first pass I thought I understood what you meant in that 1v1ing RC is a "gamble" but thinking about it more it doesn't make any sense because he'd also be a mislynch to win at the same time.

[GuiltyLion]

Yes? But wouldn't you feel more inclined to vote RC over Scylla if he were more conventional about his push on RC(trying to convince people instead of going all in at the day start)?

ah I gotcha, you were contrasting "make an immediate vote on RC and barely justify it" as the "gamble" vs "play like town normally would and try to be convincing and make a real scumcase on RC" as "pushing for the mislynch". Not contrasting voting RC vs voting somebody else

[GuiltyLion]

starting to feel better about a King townread again

[GuiltyLion]

I will always lynch anyone who gives false meta on me.

but in the very game you linked, that lead to you lynching town?

I like your points on RC/Brie, but the issue I'm having is with your certainty that RC is scum. At this point now FYPOV it would be certain - especially since King/I aren't quickhammering - but it shouldn't have been at daystart. How do I know this isn't scum false bravado?

[GuiltyLion]

I've only played 1 or 2 games here and that was 3-4 years ago

I just realized this makes TheBrie attempting to meta you pretty bad

Brie - why would the difference in King's past town games that you pointed out be due to an alignment change in this game and not just a personality/playstyle change from them being several years old?

[GuiltyLion]

you did call RC town on D1 though, for really weak reasons

[GuiltyLion]

Votecount 1.1.5

Votecount 1.1.5

[0] Kingmaker
[1]

Vic Sage

-

Duckdoggo

[0] Scylla and Charybdis

[5] CommKnight - Kingmaker,

GuiltyLion

, RadiantCowbells, TheBrie,

Vic Sage

[LYNCH]

[0] GuiltyLion
[1]

Duckdoggo

- Scylla and Charybdis
[0] TheBrie
[1] RadiantCowbells -

CommKnight

[0] Nolynch

Not voting:

8 players are alive, therefore 5 votes is the majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-07-31 01:52:12)

Votecount 1.2.3

Votecount 1.2.3

[1] Kingmaker -

Vic Sage

[0] Vic Sage
[0] Scylla and Charybdis
[0] GuiltyLion

[4]

Duckdoggo

- Kingmaker,

GuiltyLion

, TheBrie, RadiantCowbells [LYNCH]

[0] TheBrie
[0] RadiantCowbells

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: Scylla and Charybdis,

Duckdoggo

7 players are alive, therefore 4 votes is the majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-08-06 21:54:59)

I feel like it's indicative here that Duckdoggo lynch went through without S&C on it, while S&C was pushing it the first half of D1. If S&C is town and Brie/RC is the team, they just hopped on two town driven wagons as the day ended for both lynches. That may be a function of the set-up, but generally it's pretty rare that you see that happen in 9p games with 2 scum, usually scum try in some way to set themselves up with a convincing narrative for 5p and hopping on wagons doesn't really let you do that.

doesn't really lead me any closer to a good conclusion but meehhhh

I want more of Brie/King interacting directly

[GuiltyLion]

you did call RC town on D1 though, for really weak reasons

Reads can change.

-Scylla

yeah but now you're all "hahaha I read you as scum RC" despite the fact that you were basically forced to do that by virtue of the setup nearly guaranteeing that scum was in {RC, S&C}

[GuiltyLion]

here's me not hammering, if that counts for anything. I guess that just rules out GL/King

[GuiltyLion]

or GL/RC

[GuiltyLion]

Brie if you could post and not hammer to rule out Brie/RC that would be cool

[GuiltyLion]

GL, do you not agree with me that stuff like 469 from Kingsmaker feels like he's trying to cast doubt on the scumreads on Vedith without doing so directly?
Like he hasn't actually called Vedith town and has called him scum most of the time but he isn't exactly treating the slot like one he confidently scumreads.

I do see what you're getting at here. It's a post that doesn't come to any conclusions or ask any real questions to anyone in particular, which makes me wonder what purpose town!King would have to write it

[GuiltyLion]

GL who do you think is the last scum?

assuming you're town, I'm like 60/40 it's King over Brie. I think King is really good at going through the motions like he is town and playing up WIFOM but Brie's posts overall feel both more honest and more driven to solving the game

[GuiltyLion]

gah, I suck at this game sometimes. Vedith, I'm sorry for the misread

I thought Brie's play was off compared to my past games with her but she did a good job deflecting the things that were thrown at her. and as usual I can only read RC as scum when he's pushing on me . I need to get better at not getting suckered by people who townread me, it's a big blind spot for me

well played by scum. I'm pretty responsible for this loss so apologies to my fellow townies

[GuiltyLion]

I was considering early on in D2 forcing a Brie/King vote off after it was already clear that one scum was in S&C and RC, but didn't think I had enough time/towncred to really champion it. I think that would have been a better approach in hindsight