Micro 731 | Scumteam UnPick II - Endgame

[Kingmaker]

Hey hey hey!

Table is practically useless until we get a scum flip or we get to a lylo situation, both of which are not gonna happen during d1 - so let's drop it now and never speak of it again today?

I'm okayish with my "old" vote but in case if I need to refresh it VOTE: CommKnight

[Kingmaker]

I'm willing to sheep this because I'm too lazy to do the analysis myself
VOTE: vic

And ig don't worry too much about Day1 being abnormal. People will probably defend themselves and others the best they can, so we can prob still work on those.

Can you start defending yourself so that we can work on that?

[Kingmaker]

Yup I was talking to Doggo. I don't think calling a self proclaimed lazy vote lazy and voting them for it is terribly hardworking either though, so meh.

I don't see any merit in rushing the first lynch as we are not going to get any information out of it.

[Kingmaker]

Nah, probs not scum. Just stupid.

In order to be sure that none of the people he cleared is scum, we need to either lynch scum (which would be the point of lynching based on scum/townreads) or lynch me, ap, S&C, and one of his clears, and have all of those flip town.



So we have to lose, but we'll be absolutely sure of the scumteam if we do.

On the other hand, GL and CK both seem fairly town to me for scumhunting reasons.

I'm not sure I understand this perfectly. I see that lynching scum would clear some of us, but I don't follow the second part. Lynching a persons only possible partners and having them flip town would clear them, but I don't think that's what you're saying.

He is basically saying if he divides up suspect pool like that and if scum is in the second pool, we will use all our mislynches in first pool before getting to the second pool and as a result lose the game. Or that's what I understood.

Also @Scylla, pay close attention to my posts. I don't SR TheBrie. I TR her because it's highly unlikely she's scum and I have no real reason to SR her atm.

I was posting half asleep, and meant town, not scum.
Saying you town read someone because it's highly unlikely that they are scum is just bad imo.
It's gamblers fallacy, or whatever you call it.

The point of revealing who the picks were was to give us the possibilities of scum, not to read players from it.

I suggest you change your view on the Brie and stop acting like it's a town slot for that reason alone.

-Scylla

Between this post and the one directly after. I'll tell you what I'll do.

VOTE: Scylla

Gambler's fallacy. That was mentioned to me before. But you know who mentioned it? Scum. When i had multiple townies pegged and the entire scum team pegged into a smaller pool.

I'll reconsider my read on TheBrie in TOMORROW's stage. But in today's I'm interested in getting 2 lynches that will more likely both be on scum.

Are you looking for reads or excuses? Because "Only scum uses Gambler's Fallacy arguement" arguement is Reverse Gambler's Fallacy, which is actually chuckleworthy if nothing else. It's definitely not a read though.

[Kingmaker]

Hey hey hey!

Table is practically useless until we get a scum flip or we get to a lylo situation, both of which are not gonna happen during d1 - so let's drop it now and never speak of it again today?

I'm okayish with my "old" vote but in case if I need to refresh it VOTE: CommKnight

The table won't help us right now? how come? Could you explain to me the examples/situations how the table won't help and can only be of a help later on? I mean I know it can help later on but why not now?

I'm new to this kind of theme and first hydra as well, so excuse me for my noobness.

Partnership analysis without no flip info is completely basing your thoughts on assumptions - if those assumptions are false then all your analysis was useless and you were only biasing yourself to one outcome and ignoring all the others.

This mechanic(and the table we have thanks to it) only helps us at partnership analysis, which should be avoided until we have confirmed alignment flips. Before that, not actually useful.

Yup I was talking to Doggo. I don't think calling a self proclaimed lazy vote lazy and voting them for it is terribly hardworking either though, so meh.

I don't see any merit in rushing the first lynch as we are not going to get any information out of it.

A first lynch with a chart what we have now won't get information?

Ok now im lost, then whats the point of the table?

-ST

First lynch of day 1 does not flip immediately hence we won't get information from it until end of day 1.

[Kingmaker]

If we would get information it would be debatable since it is practically a free lynch, we lynch - we get flip- we continue the day without scum making a night kill. That's not the case though.

[Kingmaker]

I don't like Comm ignoring commenting on Doggo's lazy vote based on his own tables or other people pushing him for that vote, but jumping at Scylla for use of the phrase "gambler's fallacy"

I hate the fact that Comm basically sorted the number of possibilities on his own table and made a tier list out of them without giving any actual reasoning or any hint of reads further than "I scum/town read X/Y".

I feel stronger about my vote.

[Kingmaker]

The sheep is right, probably better to speculate with the unpicks after a while.
Right now, nobody really sticks out as scummy to me, so I'm going to keep my vote.

And Comm looks more townie in this game than what I've seen before.

Also, yes I realize that was a lazy sheep. No duh. It's my way of showing that I agree with you.
Why would I take the time to make my own table when you guys already did it? If anything it would just be useless and lamisty.

-C

Was there a specific reason you picked Vic out of 5 people with most possible partners on the analysis Comm has given?

[Kingmaker]

You don't like them buddying up to Vic but meanwhile you are... buddying up to Vic? Kinda mixed signals there.

[Kingmaker]

I don't think Comm is being lazy. I think he is not being genuine.

[Kingmaker]

@Vic

What are your thoughts on this?

You don't like them buddying up to Vic but meanwhile you are... buddying up to Vic? Kinda mixed signals there.

[Kingmaker]

@DuckDoggo

That(137) was a horrible post. Instead of giving Vic(or anyone else) a reason to read you as town, you basically attacked him and your reasoning behind it is off as well. Seriousness of a read and a read not being set in stone are not mutually exclusive,

no one's

read should be set in stone right now - we are 6 pages into the game and one of the players haven't even showed up yet! That does not stop the reads from being serious though?

Why are you only tunneling on Vic, he is not the only one who is suspicious of you? Why did you vote him in the first place, out of 5 people who had same amount of probable partnerships? Why did you dodge my first question on this, only to attack Vic over his suspicion on you and do...nothing else? Where are your reads - you must have some reads as you said your reads are not set in stone?

You've effectively scumhunted as much as Vung at this point. From my point of view you are either unmotivated towny with very little will to play or scum who is barely trying - in either case I see

no reason

you should not be lynched.

[Kingmaker]

Sorry, but I had a pet die today and I'm not feeling up to dealing with you all at the moment. I'll be back tomorrow.

It's all good man, real life comes first. It's why I'm not able to post what I wanted to post yet, don't even got the time right now to post the full length of it all.

__________________________________________________________________________________

So my reasons for TR'ing GuiltyLion and TheBrie has to do with their play and attitude thus far in the game. Not because of my table. My table just helps further increase the chances of me being correct on those reads and thus less doubt in them.

VOTE: Vung - There's a good chance this slot is scum and it'd at least free up the mod from finding a replacement. The only other one I'd be willing to lynch is Kingmaker at the moment. Everyone else I'd rather have 7 more days to sort better for the second lynch.

Really? After basing all your game plan on this, making tables and threatening(and voting) other people because of this mechanic you're suggesting we should lynch one person whose picks we don't know, who hasn't posted even one post yet, who will be probably replaced even before first deadine hits - because they might flip scum due to

pure luck

? Don't you even have

one

scum read you'd rather vote?

I can't see any ways to justify this play coming from town, I really can't.

[Kingmaker]

And no RC. YOU ARE BEING LYNCHED. This time there is no me helping you and your buddy win by lynching another faction (That isn't here this time for you to cop out in behind). You're flip #1, King is flip #2.

TheBrie and GuiltyLion are off the pool for both lynches (until we get a scum flip) and lynching me when I'm trying to actually peg scum is just stupid.

What can you add to this game if we left you alive RC?

Point to some townie things King has done so far.

Now of course we won't use this to decide the lynch today, but this basically helps as the days go by and we can eliminate entire rows and columns of duos as people flip town/scum.

So... That was a lie then?

[Kingmaker]

@Vic-193

The problem here is you are doing partnership analysis without a single flip which biases your reads in the direction you want things to be, like I said earlier. I'd rather lynch the player whom I believe has the most probable to flip scum - who is Comm right now.

@Comm

The problem with your plan is I don't believe you're town at all. You're contradicting yourself all over the place.

[Kingmaker]

I'll not be moving my vote away unless Comm lynch becomes impossible.

My only other preference is Doggo right now, but only if Comm vagon becomes impossible.

[Kingmaker]

Hey, woke up from a hangover and off to a birthday so I'll keep this short. I'm pretty confident Comm was a scum and due to their individual scumminess, the fact Comm avoided speaking about or voting Doggo while they were an easy target and also the fact that Doggo looks like they pretty much gave up on this, so - VOTE: DuckDoggo

I'll come back tonight to check on the thread and iso everyone to get more reads in case İ'm wrong on one or both of Comm&Doggo - but I don't really feel like I'm wrong.

[Kingmaker]

Look at his vote for doggo. It's basically, CK was scum, so doggo must be scum. But we don't have a CK flip. It's all sorts of gross.

I don't understand what you're trying to get to. Yes we don't have a Comm flip yet, but of course I'll assume he is going to flip scum - that's why I voted him and advocated his lynch in the first place! What would be the point of going after him if I didn't believe he was scum? This is not the same as assuming a living player's alignment and doing partnership analysis from that.

[Kingmaker]

Look at his vote for doggo. It's basically, CK was scum, so doggo must be scum. But we don't have a CK flip. It's all sorts of gross.

I don't understand what you're trying to get to. Yes we don't have a Comm flip yet, but of course I'll assume he is going to flip scum - that's why I voted him and advocated his lynch in the first place! What would be the point of going after him if I didn't believe he was scum? This is not the same as assuming a living player's alignment and doing partnership analysis from that.

Okay. If CK flips scum we've won the game. So, I can just check out from the thread now and not pay any attention to the game, right?

No?

Oh, that must be because you need to HOPE FOR THE BEST AND EXPECT THE WORST.



PEdit: nah, there's no way you're scum with CK. If that's the team town's already lost and I'm gonna be super annoyed at the lurktastic mess of a game that this was.

Look dude, if you want to mislynch me over the player we both read as scum nearly all game - go ahead. But first answer this, how in holy hell scum!me survives day 2? What would be even my game plan? For me to be scum, both Comm and Doggo would have to flip town since Comm-me team is dumb and Doggo-me is outright impossible. Then I would start day 2 with both my scum reads flipped town, with no other scum reads whatsoever, in a lylo where I have to invent some new scum reads which means I'd have to go back on at least some of my own word because I've townread nearly all of the remaining people one way or another.

Is that really a sound scum strategy to you? Do you give me that much credit? I'm hurt.

I'm not hoping for the best, I'm trying to play optimally. You're basically stalling Doggo lynch because you feel like it is too easy.

[Kingmaker]

Uh, so... I was wrong about... Well, everything. I'll review the thread and my reads tonight.

[Kingmaker]

here's a shotgun of some reread thoughts

@Vic

What are your thoughts on this?

You don't like them buddying up to Vic but meanwhile you are... buddying up to Vic? Kinda mixed signals there.

^not damning but this makes a lot of sense for a King-S&C team. Kings trying to get Vic to suspect Brie's vote on S&C. King - what was your angle here?

My angle was being kind of paranoid about Brie since people were starting to rule out her lynch for day 1 due to having less possible scumteams and at that moment I felt like she was posting without actual substance. In 54, 79 and 87 for example, she was saying something inconclusive, immediately following it with a but statement - effectively not stating any opinion or read. It's a tactic I've seen scum use early in the game before to give the illusion of scumhunting so that disturbed me a bit. Then she went from not really suspecting Scylla to voting Scylla in one post meanwhile buddying Vic so it became wee bit more suspicious.

That post was not to steer Vic to Brie but to understand why Vic didn't comment on someone sheeping him in contradictory behaviour, I wanted his answer because I did not fully trust him too at that point.

I dropped these suspicions once I started strongly scum reading Comm and by extension Doggo.

[Kingmaker]

Votes and table combined basically confirm there is one scum in [RC, Scylla] and one scum in [me, GL, Brie]

Before I start rereading and second guessing myself I'll say this - Scylla and Brie team looks more likely in my eyes. I don't think a replacing scum player who was in little risk of getting lynched would jump into spotlight and go hard after Comm knowing they would flip town and I've had no suspicions about GL throughout game while I had a few about Brie. Anyway, time to get reading.

[Kingmaker]

I'm not particularly sure if any scum team combination would kill someone other than Vic regardless of possibilities. He was a competent player who had the ability to review and change his reads with the changing circumstances and looked like town in the process too - not the type of player you would want around in a lylo, regardless of his read on you. I'm absolutely sure I would have killed him if I was scum.

@RC
Why do you think Scylla couldn't survive my flip? It would be basically exact same situation as now except minus Brie, because she would be clear and obvious nightkill if I flipped scum.

[Kingmaker]

Is Scylla type of person who would go all in after one red flag?

I find it hard to make sense of his vote, town or scum.

[Kingmaker]

I'm having a hard time making sense of them flipping from RC/King to RC/Brie as well

That can be explained if he is scum, but if he is scum(and it really looks that way from here)... why do this all-in gamble in lylo instead of playing safer and pushing for a mislynch to win the game? My head hurts.

[Kingmaker]

Yes? But wouldn't you feel more inclined to vote RC over Scylla if he were more conventional about his push on RC(trying to convince people instead of going all in at the day start)?

[Kingmaker]

That can be explained if he is scum, but if he is scum(and it really looks that way from here)... why do this all-in gamble in lylo instead of playing safer and pushing for a mislynch to win the game? My head hurts.

yeah explain to me what you mean by "all-in gamble instead of pushing for a mislynch"? At first pass I thought I understood what you meant in that 1v1ing RC is a "gamble" but thinking about it more it doesn't make any sense because he'd also be a mislynch to win at the same time.

I think gamble part is the absolute vote and push he makes at the day start, not 1v1ing RC. 1v1ing RC is the most optimal strategy for a scum!Scylla like RC pointed out earlier, but he could have been more calm and sensible about it?

[Kingmaker]

I've never claimed to have any meta experience, I've only played 1 or 2 games here and that was 3-4 years ago - that's why I mostly kept away from commenting on metahunting anyway. I don't get why you got rattled over that.

I couldn't comment on it, as I don't even know if it is fake meta or not.

[Kingmaker]

@Scylla
Assuming you are town, do you think that was the best course of action you could take? Did you not think you would have to convince 2 other town players to vote with you and did you not think going ahead with that level of assurance and aggression would bother them?

Like I said - it is not the action that is damning, it is the execution. I get your point though and I'll try to check the game you have linked.

[Kingmaker]

Yes? But wouldn't you feel more inclined to vote RC over Scylla if he were more conventional about his push on RC(trying to convince people instead of going all in at the day start)?

Why does him making a bad play, regardless of alignment, make him town when as we've both noted this is how he plays?
In my last game he spent the entire game calling Layla scum without ever giving a reason for it, which is essentially the same play as he's making here.
Why are you assuming that him playing badly makes him town?

I've never said it would make him town, I just said I couldn't make sense out of it regardless of his alignment. In fact I outright told him he was looking more like a scum?

[Kingmaker]

*Looks at game links and names above*

I signed up to play and read this game, not the others... *sigh*

[Kingmaker]

Are you sure you've read the post you mentioned because that post is me saying scum!Scylla makes more sense in the circumstances but Scylla's actions don't make sense in general regardless of alignment - you can see it easily if you check the start of that talk.

[Kingmaker]

I've mostly talked about Scylla because today's lynch is either them or you.

I've already talked a bit about my thoughts on Brie, my reread didn't change them much - she looks low on actual substance and her own opinions. One thing making me err a bit is her minor push on Scylla, that kinda can be justified by Scylla not actually being in danger of getting lynched but still.

[Kingmaker]

I don't get the the reasoning about me leaving wiggle room on Scylla - what would even be my end game by this? If I was scum with Scylla one mislynch would be all I need to win which could have been arguably more easy to achieve by either going all against RC or completely sucking up to him to make him look more suspicious in rest of the players' eyes meanwhile waiting for someone to vote for them to quickhammer. That's not what I've done today, I'm trying to make sense of things because objectively, some things do

not

make sense here.

[Kingmaker]

I really hate the way Scylla played today, I'm frustrated the game has turned into a clash of personalities between Scylla and RC, I can't shake the feeling RC could be scum who is provoking me to vote Scylla, I'm

annoyed

it's working.

Ugh.

[Kingmaker]

VOTE: Scylla

If this is a loss, I won't mourn it.

[Kingmaker]

GL, do you not agree with me that stuff like 469 from Kingsmaker feels like he's trying to cast doubt on the scumreads on Vedith without doing so directly?
Like he hasn't actually called Vedith town and has called him scum most of the time but he isn't exactly treating the slot like one he confidently scumreads.

I do see what you're getting at here. It's a post that doesn't come to any conclusions or ask any real questions to anyone in particular, which makes me wonder what purpose town!King would have to write it

Is Scylla type of person who would go all in after one red flag?

I find it hard to make sense of his vote, town or scum.

It's like, 4 posts up from that. Come on dudes, don't cherry pick my shit.

[Kingmaker]

I don't get the the reasoning about me leaving wiggle room on Scylla - what would even be my end game by this? If I was scum with Scylla one mislynch would be all I need to win which could have been arguably more easy to achieve by either going all against RC or completely sucking up to him to make him look more suspicious in rest of the players' eyes meanwhile waiting for someone to vote for them to quickhammer. That's not what I've done today, I'm trying to make sense of things because objectively, some things do

not

make sense here.

You would have had to decide to go all out versus me at a point when the rest of the town were all townreading me and you were generally seen as second scum. So, no.
I mean I agree you should have hardbussed Scylla given how everyone scumread him but feels to me like you were talking with an agenda when you pushed on him.
If you're town then TheBrie is scum (or GL). Why is TheBrie scum?

*shrugs* Have you thought that maybe my agenda is trying to be somewhat more careful and cynical in lylo to not the lose the game as town? Or do you just want me to be scum?

Neither Brie nor GL is getting lynched today. GL overally looked townier than Brie whole game so I believe she is more likely to be scum. If game doesn't end I'll look in more detailed tomorrow.

[Kingmaker]

I'm not cherry picking. I do still feel like it was sort of a waffley post that scum would make about their scumpartners to look like they're pushing on them without really saying anything.
Your entire 'well Scylla is probscum but [] weird as scum (or as town in this case)' so that you have leverage to back off plays into that.

If you're town, someone else is scum and you should be able to tell me why.

First of all, like I've pointed out earlier half of Brie's posts are "X but y" type of posts that adds nothing to the discussion yet you've never commented on that.

Secondly, that is

not

even that kind of post you've described! Whole post chain is basically

Scylla's behaviour
- If town, weird as hell
- If scum more sensible, but still weird.


I basically it makes

more

sense for him to be a scum without making any backpedaling points whatsoever, like Brie made during whole her d1 play, yet you're giving me crap for

not

pushing him? Am I having problems relaying my message? I'm geniunely baffled at this.