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UnaBombaH · Post Post #3375 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:47 am

In post 3374, frog wrote:Both are confirmed scum from my point of view (unless we're arguing for Ninja Roleblockers) and unless Una is scum with them then I know that GR is Vanilla whereas FL might have a power role, so FL is the better lynch

I started the day with this.
My gut told me already yesterday to trust frog and Eddie over Flavor Leaf.
Eddie-wagon went through, so I decided FL was lockscum. GR fakeclaim confirmed him as scum to me at night, so I tunneled into thinking we got two.
But I later took a step back and realized that IF scum has a roleblocker outside of GR, it wouldn't lock FL.

So to frog FL is lockscum, to me GR is lockscum (based on our respective investigations).
That is why it felt like I had 100% confirmation, but in fact I have 50% and frog 50%.

frog · Post Post #3376 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:54 am

They are both confirmed scum to me

Flavor Leaf effectively claimed a guilty on a confirmed town player, and I know he was not roleblocked
Game Replacement claimed to have visited Flavor Leaf Night Three, which I know he did not do

Thor665 · Post Post #3377 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:53 am

In post 3376, frog wrote:They are both confirmed scum to me

Flavor Leaf
effectively
claimed a guilty on a confirmed town player, and I know he was not roleblocked
Game Replacement claimed to have visited Flavor Leaf Night Three, which I know he did not do

I'm highlighting an important word in your assessment.
Even if you only accept that as .00000001% that there is a chance that FL was played by scum (and I would happily argue it's a bigger number than that) it is still vastly more of a chance than GR has to be town from your perspective.
FL is likely scum.
GR is assured scum.

Why are you voting FL?

frog · Post Post #3378 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:08 am

Because I believe the likelihood of a scum role that can play FL like that existing is infinitesimally small

The only reason, in a vacuum, why I should lynch Game Replacement over Flavor Leaf is if I think something like Ninja Roleblocker exists

I realise this is essentially a repetition of what I said before, but there is not much more to say

I'm obviously not against a GR lynch

frog · Post Post #3379 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:09 am

What do you think the chance of scum having a role that could confound Night 3's results to the extent that both I and FL are town is?

Thor665 · Post Post #3380 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:49 am

In post 3378, frog wrote:Because I believe the likelihood of a scum role that can play FL like that existing is infinitesimally small

The only reason, in a vacuum, why I should lynch Game Replacement over Flavor Leaf is if I think something like Ninja Roleblocker exists

Whaaaat? Why are you only seeing th emore complicated option even after I pointed out easier ones.

In post 3378, frog wrote:I'm obviously not against a GR lynch

Vote him then, he's the more likely scum if you're telling the truth.

In post 3379, frog wrote:What do you think the chance of scum having a role that could confound Night 3's results to the extent that both I and FL are town is?

Since all they'd need is a rolestopper, or a jailkeeper, I would call them perfectly decent and certainly higher than the 0% chance of them having something that makes GR not scum if you're town.

Thor665 · Post Post #3381 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:51 am

I'm actually fascinated/horrified by how I'm having the same conversation as yesterday and I'm also having that conversation with *both sides* of the current Mexican standoff.

Thor665 · Post Post #3382 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:51 am

You would think me being right yesterday would AT LEAST buy me the common courtesy of people voting people that they agree are scum in the order I prefer.

Thor665 · Post Post #3383 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:52 am

Like, seriously, what even is this debate with you and Flavor and me?

frog · Post Post #3384 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:40 am

In post 3380, Thor665 wrote:Whaaaat? Why are you only seeing th emore complicated option even after I pointed out easier ones.

What are the easier ones? If by jailkeeper you are suggesting I could have been jailed Night 3, then that is incorrect, as the wording for 'nobody visited' and 'action failed' differs in my Role PM. I concede that a rolestopper would solve Night 3 if Flavor Leaf and I were both town, but they would have to be a scum rolestopper since town has not claimed one yet, and Flavor Leaf would be the likeliest candidate for that given the claim.

I am perfectly happy to give you that common courtesy; I was answering your question, not contending with your approach. If people are more united about lynching Game Replacement than Flavor Leaf, which they seem to be, I have no reason to impede that.

VOTE: Game Replacement

frog · Post Post #3385 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:48 am

In post 3384, frog wrote:I concede that a rolestopper would solve Night 3 if Flavor Leaf and I were both town, but they would have to be a scum rolestopper since town has not claimed one yet, and Flavor Leaf would be the likeliest candidate for that given the claim.

Hang on, this makes absolutely no sense either

Regardless

Thor665 · Post Post #3386 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:56 am

In post 3384, frog wrote:What are the easier ones? If by jailkeeper you are suggesting I could have been jailed Night 3, then that is incorrect, as the wording for 'nobody visited' and 'action failed' differs in my Role PM. I concede that a rolestopper would solve Night 3 if Flavor Leaf and I were both town, but they would have to be a scum rolestopper since town has not claimed one yet, and Flavor Leaf would be the likeliest candidate for that given the claim.

No, I'm suggesting, as I discussed yesterday, that it would be impossible for Flavor, if he is telling the truth, to tell the difference between a Loyalty effect on scum from a Jailed target.
So, if EDDIE had been jailed (or something similar of which there are many options) it grants Flavor the result he claimed while being town, and you the result you claimed while being town, yet (from your perspective) it remains impossible for GR to be town - which makes you voting Flavor first objectively bad play if you're town.

Thor665 · Post Post #3387 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:57 am

There are also Ninja Rolestoppers and other more esoteric options, of course, and all of them ALSO support my stance.

frog · Post Post #3388 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 6:11 am

In post 3386, Thor665 wrote:No, I'm suggesting, as I discussed yesterday, that it would be impossible for Flavor, if he is telling the truth, to tell the difference between a Loyalty effect on scum from a Jailed target.
So, if EDDIE had been jailed (or something similar of which there are many options) it grants Flavor the result he claimed while being town, and you the result you claimed while being town, yet (from your perspective) it remains impossible for GR to be town - which makes you voting Flavor first objectively bad play if you're town.

This has a slight problem, the issue being with the night kill. Eddie claimed to have protected me Night 3. If Flavor Leaf and I are town, then scum must have not submitted a kill Night 3 for your theory to work, something I think is unlikely.

Although I do recognise we are talking about orders of unlikeliness here, and I see your point about Game Replacement being the more secure lynch

Game Replacement · Post Post #3389 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 6:20 am

Lynching me loses us the game.
Thor, I know you're not that bad to be believing a fake guilty from scum in LyLo/MyLo.

Thor665 · Post Post #3390 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 6:51 am

In post 3389, Game Replacement wrote:Lynching me loses us the game.
Thor, I know you're not that bad to be believing a fake guilty from scum in LyLo/MyLo.

You supported a likely fake guilty yesterday while ignoring someone directly counterclaiming you, so...well, if I'm bad you're worse

I asked you to talk to me about wagon composition - it seems to strongly vilify you and Flavor. What are your thoughts on how scum appear to have avoided wagons on town constantly?

UnaBombaH · Post Post #3391 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 6:54 am

In post 3388, frog wrote:This has a slight problem, the issue being with the night kill. Eddie claimed to have protected me Night 3. If Flavor Leaf and I are town, then scum must have not submitted a kill Night 3 for your theory to work, something I think is unlikely.

I HAD FORGOT ABOUT THIS.
I knew there was a reason why I was so sure Eddie+frog was speaking the truth.

So now what I'm paranoid that Thor might be scum, trying to protect their potential PR (FL) and rather get their Goon (GR) lynched.

GR is Vanilla. Thor is Vanilla.
I'm leaning back to lynching Flavor honestly, but I want to reach that decision TOGETHER.

NTRP and TiaM, open your mouths again.

UnaBombaH · Post Post #3392 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 6:55 am

OK Thor, talk with me through this then.

Do you believe that scum has a PR in the game?
And if they do, what kind of power would you assume?

Game Replacement · Post Post #3393 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 7:02 am

In post 3390, Thor665 wrote:
In post 3389, Game Replacement wrote:Lynching me loses us the game.
Thor, I know you're not that bad to be believing a fake guilty from scum in LyLo/MyLo.
You supported a likely fake guilty yesterday while ignoring someone directly counterclaiming you, so...well, if I'm bad you're worse

I asked you to talk to me about wagon composition - it seems to strongly vilify you and Flavor. What are your thoughts on how scum appear to have avoided wagons on town constantly?

Considering what I done had 2 out 2 Scum, while you sit there ready for a mis Lynch, no I'm not worse.
I had Eddie as 3rd Scum and his Scum flip just made my claim set.
He was town but was pushing FL as Scum when I knew he was town. That's not bad play

Scum avoid wagons all the time if they don't have to join. You know This, I know this.
I can show wagons in majority games pushed by Scum I can show wagons majority of games pushed by town.

Notice how the Scum weren't even on the SK while Mario was obvious Scum? That's because of town credit.

GTFO

Vedith \o/

TwoInAMillion · Post Post #3394 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 7:02 am

I still say Flavor and NTRP are scum.

Flavor Leaf · Post Post #3395 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 7:05 am

I mean I have brought up why there would have been a no kill 6+ times now, but sure, just ignore that everyone.

UnaBombaH · Post Post #3396 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 7:07 am

In post 3393, Game Replacement wrote:Notice how the Scum weren't even on the SK while Mario was obvious Scum? That's because of town credit.

Except that I jumped on Mario after he claimed vig, because I had KNOWLEDGE of his Bulletproof.
I just didn't know whether he was Mafia or SK.

Flavor Leaf · Post Post #3397 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 7:07 am

so now GR, Thor, and I are scum. Great.

Flavor Leaf · Post Post #3398 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 7:07 am

In post 3396, UnaBombaH wrote:
In post 3393, Game Replacement wrote:Notice how the Scum weren't even on the SK while Mario was obvious Scum? That's because of town credit.
Except that I jumped on Mario after he claimed vig, because I had KNOWLEDGE of his Bulletproof.
I just didn't know whether he was Mafia or SK.

No you didn't. All you did was intent to hammer someone that you knew was lying. You were not on the mario wagon.

Flavor Leaf · Post Post #3399 (ISO) » Mon Aug 21, 2017 7:08 am

In post 3396, UnaBombaH wrote:
In post 3393, Game Replacement wrote:Notice how the Scum weren't even on the SK while Mario was obvious Scum? That's because of town credit.
Except that I jumped on Mario after he claimed vig, because I had KNOWLEDGE of his Bulletproof.

I just didn't know whether he was Mafia or SK.

Lol...? Either way, you lynch it.