Open 692 - Two-fold Matrix6 (Game Over)

[Thor665]

Greetings, I'm the new Kantrip.

[Thor665]

Mmmm, brief skim of predecessor's iso just has me wanting to soft town Kasu.

Who wants me to sheep them? I'm too lazy to bother reading everything for reads.

[Thor665]

Since the mafia kill was clearly blocked N1, yeah.

True. But then why not out who it is? If the mafia kill was blocked two nights in a row we kinda need to know who it was.

How would any one player have this info?

[Thor665]

If they are the JK...

Leaves open both BP and Werewolf RB possibilities.
Yeah, I wouldn't be sad to hear a JK claim if they targeted the same person twice - but it's still a gamble.

Also don't sheep Kasu!slot it's had like 4 different people in it.

How does that affect read accuracy exactly?

[Thor665]

The older players wouldn't have reads based on anything that's happened since they replaced out.
The newer players wouldn't have experienced (or in Mario's case, even read) the things that happened before they replaced in.

And if there is a JK and they did target the same player both nights, that person is very likely mafia IMO.

So you're saying I should disregard your reads also?

[Thor665]

Do you scumread Comm?

[Thor665]

Vote: Something_Smart

Why would you specifically try to wave me off of sheeping a slot that you thought was a town slot?

[Thor665]

Yeah, sounds more like you just don't want my vote on you and were trying to head off the possibility by not addressing the case but addressing vague game theory.

[Thor665]

You're saying there's no case on you?

[Thor665]

Other than mine, natch.

[Thor665]

There have been cases on me, which I have thoroughly addressed. But you don't seem to know that, because you haven't read the game. So what you call a "case" is based on an incorrect guess, made for no reason that I can see except to throw shade.

If you addressed them fully why are people still voting you?
I suspect you addressed them and people disagreed.
Also, if cases *were* presented then why are you claiming there is no case on you, wouldn't that be factually incorrect?

@Vedith - why aren't you pushing for anything at the moment? Thus far the entire time I've been here *I've* done not only about half the posts, but 100% of the pushes. Feels wonky, whassup for you?

[Thor665]

@Vedith - why aren't you pushing for anything at the moment? Thus far the entire time I've been here *I've* done not only about half the posts, but 100% of the pushes. Feels wonky, whassup for you?

I'm happy just chilling right now.
But we should lynch SS regardless. Or WhyMafia.

Why should we lynch one of them?

[Thor665]

Why should we lynch one of them?

Because they both entertained my obvious fake claim.
And tried to push with it.

Therefore, pushing a mis lynch (on your slot) with the downside heading towards me.

Scum motive, scum reward.

That's a not unreasonable case.

@Something_Smart - why is the above case dumb/how have you rebutted it?

[Thor665]

Because it assumes I'm scum and then assigns motivation to my actions.

How does it do that? It assesses your behavior and then assigns a tell to it as far as I can see.

Not to mention that if I'm scum I have CLEARLY no intention of mislynching Vedith as I have been hard townreading him most of the game. There is a perfectly valid town motivation to my actions-- sheeping a player whose reads have in the past been good-- and both Mario and Vedith were in the game I referred to. (Incidentally, in that game I ALSO got wagoned for sheeping a confirmed town player and was almost lynched, and I was town of course.)

Did you believe his claim y/n?

[Thor665]

Because it assumes I'm scum and then assigns motivation to my actions.

How does it do that? It assesses your behavior and then assigns a tell to it as far as I can see.

It assigns a motivation to it. It doesn't explain why that motivation is any likelier than any other. And in fact, it doesn't make any sense because my play has pretty clearly been geared toward keeping Vedith from being lynched.

So it's not doing what you initially claimed, and now your complaint is that he failed to describe why scum would be more likely to fall for a fakeclaim than town?
I can easily think of logic for that myself - scum are more likely to buy a claim because they come from a place of generally believing eveyone else will tel the truth, since they are the faction that lies.

For a minute, until I realized.

So his case does have validity then - how fake was the claim at face value? I'm going to have to research this.

[Thor665]

Looking it over WhyMafia looks worse to me of the two.
But you don't look like you really give much of a fig for questioning Vedith either.
And it was super obvious he didn't have a guilty.

[Thor665]

At what stage did you understand it was for lawlz and decide to keep pushing Mario?

[Thor665]

Why is WhyMafia scum in your mind?

[Thor665]

Okay.

Unvote: Something_Smart
Vote: WhyMafia

[Thor665]

Okay.

Unvote: Something_Smart
Vote: WhyMafia

Should I sheep?

I would think yes considering your stated reads.

where is everyone? the game pace is too slow im starting to worry we will either mislynch towards the end of the day or have another no lynch.

Why is Not_Mafia a better lynch than WhyMafia?

SS is changing his case whenever it suits him
10/10

Looking at his 'orginal case' that you linked I find this to be demonstrably untrue. The "differences" are, at best, extremely slight and make absolute sense in coming from a person stating an identical thought in two slightly different ways. There is no atual real change in the cases I can see - can you describe it for me?

[Thor665]

Ari you're so fun when you try to gamesolve! You should do it more often
How do you feel about WhyMafia and Thor and my recent interaction with them?

How do you feel about them?

[Thor665]

Should we do the 1 shot BP claim then?

[Thor665]

How am I sucking air?

[Thor665]

How am I sucking air?

You're not dead. Why?

There hasn't been a night phase since I replaced in and no one has used a daykill power yet.
So...?

[Thor665]

Considering blocked kills happening it is either because my predecessor's reads were quite bad or quite good.

[Thor665]

It was the wagon on you, wasn't it?

[Thor665]

Considering blocked kills happening it is either because my predecessor's reads were quite bad or quite good.

What do you think your predecessor's n1 reads were? N2?

I have no idea and would have to pull up the ISO to look, since you would have to do the same and are apparently curious I would suggest only one of us deserves to do the work

[Thor665]

Although you were the one who speculated about your predecessor's reads, not Titus...

Are you kidding?
I actually only "speculated" to answer a question Titus asked me and my speculation required me to know literally nothing about my predecessor's reads as I claimed either they were good *or* bad.
What are you talking about?

[Thor665]

Damn why so defensive...

Probably because you were attacking me, duh.
Unless you felt that snipe *wasn't* trying to weaken my position, in which case you don't understand how the game works.
Pair that with illogic and it felt like it needed a shotgun.

You actually said they were "quite bad or quite good" and maybe it would be worth it to you to check them to see if you still think so, and if so which one you think it is?

I don't actually care about my predecessor's reads, why should I? Because I think they might be "quite good or quite bad" (which is so different from thinking they are good or bad...)? I don't have the info (scum's kill targets and all PR night action info) to divine the good v. bad so...it's literally pointless.

[Thor665]

How is it integral at all? In my answer I was blowing off Titus for asking a silly question with no valid way to answer it.

[Thor665]

My answer *calls it a silly question in a clever way* by providing an answer that is meaningless yet that does answer the question.
How was my answer "nteresting"

[Thor665]

I'm guessing you now agree that a value call on the quality of my predecessor's reads was not actually integral.

[Thor665]

Because the obvious answer to call the question silly is "because the scum didn't shoot me". But instead you mentioned your predecessor's reads, in a way which does not say nothing (you said QUITE good or QUITE bad, which excludes the possibility of slightly good or slightly bad).

Scum might have shot me, how do you know they didn't?

I mean, if you don't actually care about the quality of your predecessor's reads, then sure. But then why bring them up at all?

Because I was asked why I was alive - if you don't think 'quality of reads' is a factor in how long a town slot lives in a game then I would be fascinated to hear what you think the factors are.

[Thor665]

I would also argue in any mafia game slightly bad reads and slightly good reads are the exact same thing.

[Thor665]

I don't, but given that I was actually around when your predecessor was here I don't think anyone would protect him.

Then we agree that it's not a simple answer to say scum did or didn't try to kill me - so I have no idea why you're telling me I should have used your so-called simple answer.

Why was my answer 'interesting' again besides, unlike some of your claimed answers of how I should have responded, being correct?

For one, it's multiball so each scumteam only knows half of how good someone's reads are. Also there's how townread someone is, PR tells, intended crosskills, reputation, none of which your slot had. And it's only been 2 nights so sure maybe a slot with really good reads wouldn't survive until LYLO but we're not nearly there yet.

So, at what stage then is it integral for me to assess my predecessor's reads?

Cmon you were my first IC Thor. You know what I am saying here.

You often say things like this to me, has it ever worked?

What were your predecessors reads at n1?

Dunno, don't care, already told you that - you refusing to read doesn't then obligate my usual refusal to read to magically end.
Sheep me or do your research, you're starting to be very boring.

[Thor665]

I town read Umlaut and Judge Dredd now.
Otherwise happy with my vote.

With three days left I'd like to force a claim on someone. Some of those straggler votes should go into high octane sheeping demands or should consolidate on a viable wagon.

[Thor665]

I suspect we're going to, people are just being slurpy slow about it.

[Thor665]

Yes and it should be you. I am not voting WhyMafia with your obvscum ass pushing it.

That is more of a stance than you have otherwise provided thus far, and if you have any interest in seeing it advanced you need to provide a sexy bullet point case asap for people to sheep.

[Thor665]

I've provided the reads I have, anyone else would be in 'null' at this stage.

[Thor665]

You've had 3 days and the best the great Thor can do is nulls on most everyone?

I have not called myself great, but thank you for the burden of proficiency fallacy (as usual).
I agree it has been three days, and you should be able to go back and look at those three days and see it was a wasteland.
And, frankly, about four reads in three days seems okay to me.

Why it's almost as if you're trying to avoid pissing off Umlaut who is likely a wolf by wagons yesterday.

So your claim is I'm the last Mafia and he's a wolf, and I know it and don't want to threaten him or his wolf buddy by pressing them?
If so it apparently took me two days to puzzle that out and try to do it as a strategy I suppose...and in the interim I hard pressed the 'wolf'.
Or did I know when I was attacking the wolf that it was a wolf all along?

[Thor665]

How do the wagons yesterday make Umlaut a wolf?

[Thor665]

Titus, I feel lonely.

[Thor665]

We have an asexual relationship and don't need you coloring it.

[Thor665]

You've trapped me in a web of my own devising, assuredly.

[Thor665]

How do the wagons yesterday make Umlaut a wolf?

@Titus - y'know, before Lang came in with jokes I asked a number of serious questions, I'd like to at least see this one fielded.

Why is JJD town?

Because he's blatantly trying to game solve.

Whymafia could be scum but I feel like he's the designatwd mislynch atm.

I will note that 'Not Voting' is mod confirmed as not scum aligned, so if you're going to say something like this I'd like to see something non=sloth like accompanying it.

[Thor665]

Okay, so Thor/SS looks like a TvT to me. They noth appear to ve sorting each other. I like SS saying not to sheep the Kaus slot and I like Thir pushing around at others rather than clinging solely to that point.

I don't know, I got more of the impression that Thor was trying to see if he could swing a wagon on me...

I'd phrase it as "deserved a wagon on you" but would otherwise agree.

[Thor665]

Finding myself wishing I had pulled scum, could win this game by just going to sleep.

[Thor665]

I can only summarize for myself, which would be awkward interactions with Vedith around a fairly obvious fake claim.

[Thor665]

I suppose I can add 'lurking like a boss' but, then again, that could be my case on everyone

[Thor665]

Therefore I must VOTE: Ari
Join this righteous wagon. Thor regarding my "awkward comments". Why do you think scum would be that blatantly oppertunistic? It doesn't make any sense. I have previous experience with Vedith fake claims, and 99% of the time, I misjudge the situation. I didn't want to hesitate this time and plus I did attempt to confirm he was telling the truth. Additionally, what stops town from making the exact same comments I did? It's literally NAI

You're saying normally trust Vedith and it burns you and so you wanted to be untrusting this time? Or are you saying you normally don't trust his fake claims and it burns you and so you wanted to be trusting? I am having a hard time parsing this answer.

I would generally expect town to either believe or not believe him.
You chose to believe him but suggest he should be lynched if wrong - which is the lining up lynches scum option.

[Thor665]

20 hours left.
Are we just going for another no lynch day or what?

[Thor665]

I am fascinated by the current situation because whther I am town, mafia, OR werewolf my appropriate wincon is to suggest I'm Mafia and play along.
Which is an odd place to be logically. So...sure, I'll help you scumhunt? Derp.

I will note that it doesn't make a lot of sense not to lynch me today if you're convinced I'm Mafia, that's bad town play straight up though, and S_S is suspect for acting like it's a good move, and his plan doesn't actually make logical sense if he believes what he's saying.
Makes me think he's a wolf and being smart.

[Thor665]

So my advice would be to lynch me, and then lynch S_S and then buddy hunt.
The catch is one of the lurkers is probably the buddy, and I'm town. SO...yeah.
But logically that's the best play.

[Thor665]

I am fascinated by the current situation because whther I am town, mafia, OR werewolf my appropriate wincon is to suggest I'm Mafia and play along.

maybe im too thick but how is that?

I shall number your list and respond, but the most obvious reason is 'town isn't actually benefiting from this plan, but scum are';

1. assuming youre town you cant kill so your only chance of surviving tomorrow is if the real mafia kill your assigned target for you. now what if your assigned target

is

the real mafia?
2. if youre ww then the same applies, i.e. what if youre required to shoot your own p?
3. the only way you can pay along here is if you are the real mafia
4. but seeing how titus crumbed her target i believe you are indeed the mafia and comm explained well how its fair for everyone to leave you alive and leash you
5. so its ari or lang for me today and nobody wants to lynch lb it seems and wm did ask me to lynch ari today so unless someone can come up with a very good case on someone else or a very convincing argument against this particular lynch my vote is on aris
6. now can we agree on who thro should be shooting in each case? (i.e. if ari flips ww as most of us would expect him to be, or if he flips town as mainly ss thinks he is)

1. I would presume Mafia would then kill whoever the hell they feel like and laugh as I get lynched for not upholding my end of the bargain - resulting in a pretty solid Mafia win chance making it a bad move for town.
2. Then the wolves can freely shoot for Mafia, on a Mafia flip I'm spared and come out smelling like roses which is good for Wolves, and on a town flip I'm lynched which works out okayish for Wolves and great for Mafia and, at best, equal break for town (and it *still* would be better to lynch me today than tomorrow in that situation as it prevents potentially double town kills tonight - making it a bad move for town).
3. Or if I'm the wolves, or, frankly, if I'm town though my "play along" has an in built fail that only helps me if I lynch Mafia today - in fact, as I said, lynching Mafia today is inherently in town's best interests therefore leashing Mafia is, as mentioned, a bad play for town.
4. Even if I am exactly Mafia, and I'm not, S_S has actually failed to explain the theory gain from my so called leashing. Like I said, if I'm Mafia the best move for town is to lynch me because it takes a kill off the board and still leaves you with equal odds for bagging wolves, whereas leashing Mafia (presuming you even can) DRAMATICALLY INCREASES THE CHANCES OF MAFIA WINNING. (much less Wolves) which is against my wincon, how about you?
5-6. Even going on the insane presumption that not lynching "known" scum is a good play, you then galumph off without making werewolf buddy cases for your suspects.

Does any of that ping you to the issue with the plan?
Town doesn't advocate not killing scum.
It's why I think S_S is a good town lynch presuming you're daft enough to not lynch me (and I can even grok the case on me, and it's painful to see people ignoring it for NO REASON BEYOND A HALF BAKED PLAN).

[Thor665]

Like at least walk through the theory advantage to town if I'm Mafia and am not lynched.
There isn't one worth a spit.
Except to me if I'm Mafia, there's a LOT of advantage there.
Why then negotiate that just to control who I theory shoot?
Literally only wolves would be worried about a theory Mafia shot at this stage of the game.
That makes S_S a strongly likely wolf and that's regardless of what you think my actual alignment is.

[Thor665]

Let's not even dwell on Wolves opting to remove a JKer focusing on a theory Mafia.
Like, the thing that makes the leashing plan even possible.
When wolves, if I was not a wolf, wold have zero issues with what Titus was selling.

[Thor665]

If Titus were here she'd be calling you all lackwits with me.

[Thor665]

Lynching you takes a kill off the board that we could otherwise force you to use to bring us into odds. And the odds of a mafia win are still very low because, assuming you're mafia, neither the town not the werewolves will take an action allowing you to win; in 1v1v2 going into the day town will no lynch rather than risk lynching werewolf and in 1v1v2 going into the night werewolves will certainly kill you.

If Ari is lynched and flips town, Umlaut should eat a bullet.

You're arguing how controlling Mafia kill is beneficial while admitting that the only point of even theoretical control of the Mafia kill is based only on the idea that it helps Mafia win condition - which is the point you're trying to argue with me doesn't exist, and then reversing into an explanation of how the reality is zero Mafia win, which means you don't control the kill at all and therefore why are you claiming control of the kill?

Town doesn't advocate not killing scum.

Also I can prove this wrong very easily: 1v1v1 or 1v1v2. In both cases, lynching scum autoloses for town. In the second, lynching town actually gives town a higher EV than no-lynching.

Multiball lategame and endgame scenarios are very weird, and all bets are off. Because don't forget: "The enemy of my enemy is my friend." So congratulations Thor, you're my friend.

I will agree that in 1v1v1 and 1v1v2 that town is already basically screwed and a scum lynch can be autolose and town should always no lynch.
Are we in that setup right now?
Because otherwise I fail to see what you think you're arguing with me other than further evidence that you're not advancing a lynch that is based on a town wincon - which is my point.

If I'm Mafia you literally don't control gak, and by keeping me alive you're increasing my win chance.
So...why is keeping me alive beneficial to town exactly?
I understand how it benefits Mafia and Wolves just fine.

[Thor665]

Because we can mislynch and not lose the game.

Yeah, but then you'd still need to lynch Mafia for the win tomorrow regardless even presuming things amazingly went your way, you can get a 'mislynch' equivalent off a no kill tomorrow regardless and you're not running the risk of totally screwing town wincon.

[Thor665]

Like, lynching Mafia today leaves town in a hunt tomorrow - worst case (and best case) scenario.
Guessing at a lynch and having two scum kills (one of which for some insane reason you're claiming town will control) in multiple variations leads to almost immediate town auto lose.
You're looking to gamble that for a mislynch opportunity?
Explain those odds a bit there wolfie.

[Thor665]

Town autolose? Even 2v2v1 is still winnable for town.

Considering that one would require town counting on scum double crosskills and a no lynch - meh. I mean, sure, you're technically correct, but the odds are hardly favorable especially considering it can be outright avoided.

And the reason I'm claiming town can control the kill is that town can say to you "if you don't kill X, we'll lynch you tomorrow". Then, if X doesn't die, we lynch you.

Granted, that doesn't control the mafia kill if you're not mafia

, but otherwise you have a 0% chance of winning if you deviate, and I think that constitutes "control" to me. By deviating, you'd throw the game to the wolves, and you said yourself that my plan increases the chance of a mafia win so you wouldn't want to do that.

First off, the bold is kind of a big deal.
Second off, the only way to increase Mafia win chance is to decrease the win chances of the other two teams.
Y'know, like town.
Which is what I'm saying you plan does, and this suggests you're agreeing with me.
Also, it kind of overlooks that even if I'm Mafia - town is obligated to lynch me to remotely have a chance of winning unless we get to double crosskill prayers, so a threat of lynching me is...y'know, kinda hollow if I have half a brain. Which makes it a dumb plan to leash anyone with half a brain.

In all honesty though I think Thor is just antagonizing me because he's confident he lost. (Which is not his fault as he replaced into a basically hopeless situation.) We can go forward with the plan anyway and he'd be gamethrowing to deviate, no matter what he says.

You're game throwing to do the plan - unless you're a wolf, like I said.
Even if I'm whiny Mafia complaining and half giving up MY POINT STILL HOLDS TRUE.
Yet you can't realize it, I am presuming because you are a wolf.
With that in mind, and since my best odds are to lynch Mafia - if you were mod confirmed that I was town, who would you advocate lynching as Mafia right now?

[Thor665]

But please do the calculations as though you're confirmed mafia, because if you're not then we'll have to give Titus a stern talking-to.

You're agreeing with me that it is increasing Mafia win chance - are you claiming that increase only comes from a loss of Wolf win chance? Because otherwise I'm correct without needing to do calculations unless yours are wrong.

[Thor665]

Umlaut.

Aren't you advancing Umlaut as a wolf? Why is he highly likely to be both?

[Thor665]

I am absolutely claiming that.

In that case my appraisal is very wrong or your math is.
My path to town victory requires, from your claimed perspective - one assured scum lynch, and then needing two in a row.
Your claimed path requires that with a lynch and a "leashed" kill town nets 1-2 wolves. If 2, town wins presuming correct Mafia guess, or town has a reasonable shot with another lynch. I'll agree this is better odds.
If 1 wolf kill is managed then it is 3v1v1, town is required to lynch Mafia (making Mafia expressly uninterested in helping town unless Mafia is daft) and then is in a 2v1 requiring a correct guess. This is better odds if Mafia plays ball, but with no actual comprehension for why Mafia should play ball since it is factually in Mafia's benefit to no kill or shoot town.
If 0 town requires a correct wolf only lynch and for scum to cross kill which requires Mafia to correct wolf assess, and then for the Mafia read to be correct as well. Clearly worse odds then my plan.

I don't see your percentage win unless Mafia is an idiot.
I'm offended you think I'm an idiot (and Mafia - which, incidentally, all the above also requires or...shock, my plan of lynching Mafia today is again better than your plan regardless)

I mean he's not likely to be mafia because you're mafia. But until today I thought he was mafia.

Why do you think he is both likley Mafia and likely Wolf?
Who is his theory Wolf partner to your mind?
You can't just random lynch scummy people in multiball late game without theory partners (well, you can, but it's a bit daft)

[Thor665]

Like, if I was Mafia, my optimal play is to agree to your plan, and then to shoot someone I'm convinced is town because then you can't afford to lynch me (unless we lynch wolf, then I'm slightly screwed).

Your "leash" for this is...well, nothing at all.

Tell me about your maths that somehow leash scum.
And then we can go to the discussion about how this plan is excellent for wolves, and is actually even better for them if I'm town.
Incidentally, it is why I think you're a wolf, because my logic doesn't presume people to be dumb.

[Thor665]

Like, if I was Mafia, my optimal play is to agree to your plan, and then to shoot someone I'm convinced is town because then you can't afford to lynch me (unless we lynch wolf, then I'm slightly screwed).

Your "leash" for this is...well, nothing at all.

Tell me about your maths that somehow leash scum.
And then we can go to the discussion about how this plan is excellent for wolves, and is actually even better for them if I'm town.
Incidentally, it is why I think you're a wolf, because my logic doesn't presume people to be dumb.

I don't think you're dumb. What I do think is that if you intentionally shoot town I will have no problems lynching you and handing the game to the werewolves. It's game theory; you make a threat to do something that harms both of you so that the other person does what you want.

That sounds like everyone is playing to win except you - unless you're a wolf.
Glad to see my math was correct.
So now we're back to the reality, town's best move is to lynch Mafia today.
Sadly that's not you.

Want to talk about your Umlaut case any, or are you ducking that because now you realize I caught you?

[Thor665]

You just told me you were suspecting him of wolf and mafia and I asked how you figured he could be both and suggested why it wasn't logical.
If your ISO answers that please link, but I don't think it does.
If you're just ducking the convo because you're busted and scared of dropping buddy hints let me know.

[Thor665]

Why do you think he is both likley Mafia and likely Wolf?
Who is his theory Wolf partner to your mind?
You can't just random lynch scummy people in multiball late game without theory partners (well, you can, but it's a bit daft)

[Thor665]

I don't think he's likely mafia. I think you're likely mafia. If I knew you were town, then I'd think he's likely mafia. As it is I think he's likely wolf, because I think he's likely not town.

What about that is hard to understand?

For starters, my question of who is the theory wolf buddy.
If you know I'm Mafia to the point of game throwing and playing badly for town then you know for a fact that any other scum you point a finger at needs a buddy, and you know you need to puzzle it out quickly for a town win.

Like, for instance, with my leashed kill that you're so on about - who are you advocating I kill? Who is Umlaut's supposed partner to your mind?

after reading the back and forth between ss & thor im fairly convinced thor is town

Hu-freakin;-zah.
Do you think S_S is just stubborn town who claims to be using math for theory town wins, but ran away when I pointed out the holes as opposed to explaining how I'm wrong (which he must believe because he isn't changing his stance).
I am above 50% convinced he is wolf, so he has a theory buddy, and there's a Mafia we need to lynch today.

[Thor665]

Don't have a supposed partner yet.

And if you're not mafia, it's not me who threw.

Whether or not Titus threw is strongly debatable.
You knowingly using bad math even after claiming that I needed to do the math *is* throwing though.
So if you're not throwing, assess my math, note that we're Mafia hunting, and play to your claimed wincon.

Why aren't you buddy hunting if you're wolf hunting?

[Thor665]

How are you buddy hunting? I don't see that effort at all. What am I missing?

[Thor665]

Like, who have you ruled in and who have you ruled out as Umlaut's partners exactly?

[Thor665]

I think mafia killing Aris tonight benefits both mafia and town. So I think we should leash the shot onto Aris.

I'd like to think SS is town, but doubt it crawling its' way up there. I don't see Lang being wolf or mafia this game. Umlaut, then Aris tonight. That should nail wolves hopefully.

How do Umlaut and Ari make sense as partners to you, or is it a case of 'I see no reason they can't be partners' in which case my question is have you used that analysis to rule out any potential partners?

also if he is ww then why the hell does he not want you lynched in the first place if he thinks youre mafia? isnt that safer for him and his buddy?

I was going to tell you off but then decided to analyze this idea a bit and will admit it's a bit harder to chew than maybe I was thinking.

The most optimal situation for the Wolves is a town lynch today, Mafia killing town, and Wolves killing town with a known Mafia who is then lynched the next day. So there is benefit from the Wolves setting up Mafia to be "leashed" if they can direct the kill onto town and then get the Mafia lynched next day. In going back to look at what S_S was selling I'm realizing this is not fully what he was setting up, which could push the plan into just being town really not getting the plan they're pushing. My personal roadblock for buying that is why he brought up math to dismiss me, and then went silent on it when I explained my logic.

@S_S - why is it that you challenged me to use math to understand your plan, yet when I pointed out the flaws you went silent.

1. Have you done any percentage math on your plan, and if so what is it?
2. Did you agree or disagree with my take when it was explained and why?
3. Why did you keep advancing your plan over my objections if you thought I was Mafia, since clearly you weren't leashing me so...like, wouldn't your understanding be that I wasn't agreeing to play ball and thus needed to be leashed? Why would you let me get a kill then?

I want to townblock JJD, but he could still theory be wolf with S_S, but he doesn't make sense as a Mafia, and he definitely doesn't make sense as a wolf with anyone else because then he'd not have jumped into the middle of this.

[Thor665]

Off Raya's postings neither Vedith nor Ari look like likely Mafia.
I feel better about the Ari read of the two by a strong margin.

[Thor665]

1. Have you done any percentage math on your plan, and if so what is it?

No

Then why were you handing me that BS math line? Were you just hoping I'd be too dumb to check, or did you just guess that your math was right?

Because even if you disagree, you can still be leashed.

Since you agree that you following along with the plan would give you a chance to win, we can lay down that if you don't kill who we say to, we will lynch you even if it gives the werewolves an immediate win, and to the best of my understanding that's not gamethrowing.

Actually, no, no I couldn't be.
And, yeah, I'll agree, after the bad plan when town's wincon is in the toilet, kingmaking is not gamethrowing, the gamethrowing would have been today when you gave up town's chance to win for no reason while the lynchpin for your plan to even begin to work was actively describing how bad he thought the plan was.

Also, even if we couldn't control who you killed, the fact that you killed anyone at all would still be good for us because it's another kill that might potentially land on a werewolf. We need as many of those as we can get; if we lynch you we only get one.

Yeah, except it is actively in Mafia's interest to not actually help wipe wolves at this stage of the game.
The only benefit for Mafia alive to town is if Wolves decide to kill Mafia, and if town lynched a Wolf then it wouldn't be in Wolves interest.

By the way, Ari defended Not_Mafia pretty heavily when he was wagoned.

Your implication being they might be buddies?
What is your take of 1547 in that situation?

Also, in a world where you pretend I'm town - what do you think of my Mafia rule outs?

[Thor665]

This

You did it too, we won't know for sure until we check.

I showed you my work, so...

Town's wincon is not in the toilet if we lynch werewolf today OR if you kill werewolf tonight. Then it's 1v1v3 which is beatable by lynching scum both days.

You know what gives the exact same win odds as that for town?
Lynching known Mafia today.
Which you claim to know.
Which is why your plan is narf.

And you're saying that town is in a bad spot if we mislynch today. That's not wrong, but if we lynch you today and mislynch tomorrow it's much worse.

I will agree that a lynch of Mafia today followed by a mislynch is bad.
It doesn't make it a worse plan for town than your plan though, in fact it remains the best plan for town.
Town is behind the eight ball and needs cross kills and/or correct lynches across the board in any plan leading to their victory.

Unless I do the 20% thing, then it is in your interest to kill a wolf.

It would actually be in Mafia's interest to no kill at that stage.
Known Mafia in a 3v1v1 always loses barring really bad play from both town and wolf.

My implication being that they aren't buddies.

Why do you think he would bus at that stage with the gamestate looking like it was?

[Thor665]

You did the calculations?

No - do I need to in order to get your head out of your butt?

1v1v3 with known mafia is not the same odds as 2v4 with no known scum.

Yep, especially with your claim that you would then try to lynch a Wolf.

This is exactly why we don't lynch mafia today! Cross kills can save the game if we mislynch.

Yes, I agree that a need for cross kills becomes obligatory for a town win if we don't lynch Mafia.
That fails to make it the best odds for a town win.

Unless we specifically give you a chance to win. I promise I won't lynch you if it gets to 3v1v1; I'll go for the werewolf first.

That is game throwing and against site rules, so you are either lying, or bad at the game and either way I want you to be a wolf and not on my team.

I don't necessarily think he would bus but he wouldn't hard defend a deadweight partner like Not_Mafia.

Sure, but you're saying he did, and now he has Umlaut who is not dead weight.
So I ask again, why do you think he bussed then if they are wolves?
I don't think it makes sense.

[Thor665]

Honestly hoping SS is town here. Otherwise wolves and mafia are talking to each other.

If you think I'm Mafia why aren't you voting me?

If S_S is a wolf who would his partner be? I think at this stage it's down to Ari, but you're connecting Ari with Umlaut aren't you? S_S and Umlaut don't male a lot of sense as a pair.

[Thor665]

Thor, I hope you know there is no WIFOM situation here. Titus is jailer and has outed you as scum. There should've been two kills every single night. But Titus kept jailing you and thus until she died, you couldn't do shit.

She wouldn't have dropped those hints if you were town or he had doubt bud.

I'm not asking you for WIFOM - I'm asking why you aren't voting me if you think I'm Mafia.

I think Lang, Judge and Vedith are town this game. Which means the two wolves is likely in Ari/Um/SS. That's what I believe.

Why do you think S_S/Umlaut makes any sense?
And Ari/Umlaut for that matter.
Neither of those pairings make sense to me, why do they to you?

[Thor665]

I have to say, it's starting to look like the only possible wolf buddies for Ari are Vedith and myself, and most people seem to think I'm Mafia, so...y'know, that appears to make Ari a very unlikely Wolf.

@Ari
@Vedith

In a world where I'm not Mafia, who would you each think is the last Mafia?

[Thor665]

I'd rather you at least admit it as a suspicion, which is what she had, and is fine for potential lynch discussion at this stage, but let's not make up reality.

[Thor665]

Ah yes, high posts, the measure of play quality...oh, wait.
I'll also note, that I highly doubt Titus would have called it a guilty, she would have called it highly suspicious and worth lynching me over, and she would have been right.
But there's a reason she had a "guilty" and was talking to me - and it's not because she is daft enough to think she had a guilty.

And you, Vedith isn't calling it a guilty - you are.

[Thor665]

He talked his team out of a chance to win. I like the idea of leashing the shot if the situation was more dire than it is right now. But it makes more sense to eliminate one faction and gain the potential for 2 Mislynches available to us in case we guess wrong for wolves.

I'm actually somewhat heartened to know that when I ask why you support S_S's bad plan you end up reversing on the stance without answering the question directly (maybe you just did the math ) I do have a second question for you;

What makes you certain that only Mafia kills were stopped?

Because that's the only way I'm Mafia - how do you know that info?

[Thor665]

You could even address 'why did Wolves kill a semi-outted JKer as opposed to Mafia doing so' I'd accept that answer also.

[Thor665]

Why do you clear Comm?

[Thor665]

id still rather lynch in lb/aris but i make it 50-50 they are the 2 wws and we seem to have switched to wanting to lynch mafia if im not misunderstanding

I do think Mafia lynch is the smart play for town - any century S_S will even do math to show that as well

What do you think of my arguments that Ari is not making a lot of sense as a wolf? None of that clicks with you.

He talked his team out of a chance to win. I like the idea of leashing the shot if the situation was more dire than it is right now. But it makes more sense to eliminate one faction and gain the potential for 2 Mislynches available to us in case we guess wrong for wolves.

I'm actually somewhat heartened to know that when I ask why you support S_S's bad plan you end up reversing on the stance without answering the question directly (maybe you just did the math ) I do have a second question for you;

What makes you certain that only Mafia kills were stopped?

Because that's the only way I'm Mafia - how do you know that info?

@Comm - why are you ducking this?
I'll even add in a vague second to S_S and his question to you - what's the rush to get me lynched and not also offer a few thoughts on fairly straight forward and direct questions?

@Comm - I will happily agree that Titus jailed me, those crumbs are unmistakable. How does that make me scum exactly? Especially at the point you're now claiming maybe I'm a werewolf...just because.

[Thor665]

Fastposted. Yes I'm going to ignore you SS. Get your head out of your ass and vote Thor. I have half a mind to leash the shot to you if Thor isn't lynched today just in case you ARE a wolf trying to keep him around.

Honestly the more I read this the more insane it sounds.
What are your current concepts of who is scum and who isn't?

[Thor665]

Like, you were trying to keep me around until I asked you to back up the thought - so if that's scummy for S_S then it's scummy for you.
And then you reverse the logic to once again endorsing S_S's plan (that he's scummy for trying to do) but you want to have me target him, even though you're now admitting that maybe I'm a Wolf.

[Thor665]

If Comm is a Wolf it's with Lang or Judge Dredd, and I really don't think Dredd is scum of any stripe.
My only hangup to calling him Mafia is that part of his slipping involved claiming a bit too much confidence on kill knowledge as to what were Wolf kills. I'm not sure if that adds up, and I am sure we should be trying to lynch Mafia.

[Thor665]

I really wish Lang's iso looked like...well...anything that one could assess in any way at all. How'd you guys let him come this close to endgame? Other than Comm has anyone been town reading him?

[Thor665]

@thor: if ari is not ww and is not mafia bc of his interactions with raya then who is?

If I knew that with any degree of confidence I'd be voting and screaming at people to sheep me.

i had a strong tr on the vedith slot since early game amd he did nothing to disrupt that read. same with ss. some faulty logic maybe but nothing scummy
comm comes across as a townie who is misguided and titus trusted him and indeed so did whymafia

by poe it has to be aris+lb+umlaut and i cant understand why we are going after each other instead

Well, for starters with Ari, two of your town reads town read him - which is basically the same logic you're using to clear Comm.
I could potentially buy Umlaut as some variety of scum, he's being very surface level. If he is scum, I do slightly lean Wolf on him though.
I can also buy Lang, but mostly because he's intentionally playing with cards pressed to his chest, which makes it hard to puzzle if he's a Wolf and connected, or Mafia and alone.

If I was magically able to prove Comm was scum, which type of scum would you suppose him to be? Mafia or Wolf.

[Thor665]

To clarify Ari further - Ray looked like he genuinely wanted to lynch him, which makes Ari not likely Mafia.
As far as people who Ari could be partners with, as far as I can tell literally everyone here wants to lynch Ari on some level except S_S and me, so if he's a Wolf it's with one of us, and I'm starting to agree with you about S_S and I'm not buying a Wolf case on myself.
So...if he's Wolf, who is he wolf with, and if he's Mafia what was Ray up to with him?
If you can't come up with a clear answer to either of those questions, the obvious solution is that he's town.

[Thor665]

I'm sold by that logic and actually feel miffed I missed it twice.
That would make Ari town, JJD town, and probably S_S also.
Makes the Umlaut/Vedith/Comm universe where the wolves are living.
I still think Comm deserves serious attention for his slip about being aware that Mafia kills were the missing kills, so I'll admit I think he's the most likely Wolf of my three.

Vote: Lang Buddah

[Thor665]

Mix this with Titus' second post into the game where she does the voting. I think it's safe to assume her slot did block Thor, then Lang then Thor again. However SHE was certain on Thor being mafia. This last post of hers was very clear on that read.

I forgot that dead town have 100% accuracy of reads and that allows us to blind sheep them instead of applying our own thoughts.

Also I did forget Titus replaced into the game as well. But her ISO is pretty damn clear and I am going to follow it. She died for a reason, maybe the Werewolves picked up on it, maybe the mafia picked up on it.

Maybe the Mafia picked up on it...you're claiming I'm the Mafia and that Titus 100% knew it, so it is utterly impossible for me to have killed her unless I'm a roleblocker, and if I'm a roleblocker I wouldn't have needed to kill her if I knew she was a JKer, and the werewolves had absolutely no reason to kill her because she would have been my problem, not theirs.

Also as to explain why I seem to have "insight on kills". Well that's a slip on your part. I, like any townie who is actually looking at the roles possible knows that it's more likely jailkeeper prevented the mafia from shooting than a Guardian's target be protected twice or Elder getting shot.

I hear you saying 'more likely' can you explain why exactly?
Like, let's say I'm Mafia and Titus blocked me N1 and N3 and Lang N2 - explain how that's more likely to have stopped all the Mafia kills. Did I target Lang on N2? Or what?

What was the slip again?

Your claim that Mafia feared a Tracker as explanation of their strategy.

[Thor665]

What was the slip again?

Your claim that Mafia feared a Tracker as explanation of their strategy.

Why didn't

you

think of this, man? You're supposed to disarm the suspicion of being mafia on yourself somehow, eh?

I was more focused on explaining why the case was a bit narf and also pointing out the Wolf and town rule outs I was spotting.
I totally missed your slip, I'll agree.

[Thor665]

So why is it a slip, man, hmm?

Because it shows knowledge beyond what a town player would possess.

[Thor665]

Also I'd like to note while the BP/Not BP is going around that we still are hunting the wolf pairs to lynch tomorrow.

Something_Smart
Umlaut
Aristophanes
Vedith
Judge Joseph Dredd

^ In this 5 I feel comfortable saying the wolf pair is 100%. I'm leaning town on Judge so for me it's more those 4 and I'd like to think Vedith rolled town this time around.

I've offered rule out thoughts for Judge, Ari, and Vedith from that list.
What do you think of my non-wolf cases on them?

I also don't think Umlaut and S_S make much sense as a pair, which is one of my issues with your slot.

[Thor665]

So why is it a slip, man, hmm?

Because it shows knowledge beyond what a town player would possess.

Like that there might be a tracker in the game, man?

Yes.

Is this conversation going anywhere?

[Thor665]

I don't care if you connect me as WW, I do care that a Mafia flip from you puts town in a good position for winning moreso than any other plan offered.
You arguing that I'm a WW instead of Mafia is actually beneficial to me regardless of my alignment.

[Thor665]

::

[Thor665]

I mean, massclaim is fun and all but aren't the Thor-is-mafia crumbs pretty large?

If we're now doubting that he's mafia, there's no way we can leash him so there's no way I'm moving my vote unless someone can give a compelling alternative explanation for that evidence.

Well, I did point out a couple of things.

1. We're voting Lang on the concept that he's Mafia.
2. The case on me is circumstantial at best.
3. The leashing plan is bad so a Mafia lynch is optimal.
4. Only a dumb Mafia would ever agree to the leashing plan.
5. And even if you think I'm Mafia, I've pretty openly mocked the leash.
6. No one has even suggested a leash target, so I don't even get the point of anyone remotely talking about that plan anymore.

Anything else you need clarification on?

[Thor665]

I'm sold by that logic and actually feel miffed I missed it twice.
That would make Ari town, JJD town, and probably S_S also.
Makes the Umlaut/Vedith/Comm universe where the wolves are living.
I still think Comm deserves serious attention for his slip about being aware that Mafia kills were the missing kills, so I'll admit I think he's the most likely Wolf of my three.

Vote: Lang Buddah

@Mod - the current VC is incorrect

@Everyone else - which means Lang is L-1 right now.

[Thor665]

So you think that was both a claim and you believe it?
Vedith...

[Thor665]

I've already made a case for Ari being not Wolf, and I would consider a Lang Mafia flip to make Ari lock town for me pretty much.
Comm and Umlaut seems the least likely pairing of my theory three wolves, but it is potentially possible insomuch as COmm did an early attack on Umlaut and a claim that only a wolf would go after me (who he was claiming was caught Mafia) since then Comm has totally reversed that stance to fully hunt Mafia while not exactly admitting that I had a point in the case I was making that your plan was bad. That sort of stance reversal in a vacuum always curls my toes.

The problem is - would Comm opt to bus out of the gate. He didn't push Umlaut hard, but locking in a vote that early is assuredly a gamble. I, personally, take it as enough of a potential soft tell to think that pair might not be the smartest bet. My reverse of that reverse is Umlaut looks good as a Comm partner (even buying into Comm's selling of S_S's plan and basically trying to give Comm the cred for S_S's work. But Umlaut looks like a good potential buddy to either.

I think working off pairs Umlaut makes the most sense as a first lynch for wolf hunting, working off absolute individual evidence Comm is.
I'm personally hoping that Wolves shoot me after the Lang flip because I'll also be lock town and am far more active than Ari so I don't have to actually try to puzzle out the most strategic option

I'd say someone doing research into past days to look for legit pushes amongst those three will eventually steer town on the right path.

[Thor665]

You are the fourth.
I literally requoted my theory three just this page.

[Thor665]

I'm sold by that logic and actually feel miffed I missed it twice.
That would make Ari town, JJD town, and probably S_S also.

Makes the Umlaut/Vedith/Comm universe where the wolves are living.

I still think Comm deserves serious attention for his slip about being aware that Mafia kills were the missing kills, so I'll admit I think he's the most likely Wolf of my three.

Vote: Lang Buddah

@Mod - the current VC is incorrect

@Everyone else - which means Lang is L-1 right now.

[Thor665]

So you think that was both a claim and you believe it?
Vedith...

Yes I believe it.

Why?

[Thor665]

It's basically down to this - if we have assured scum the best move is to lynch them.
If we don't the best move is to no lynch and pray.

Vote: No Lynch

I'm basically assured not Mafia now (as S_S is having to awkwardly realize).
And if I'm the Werewolf it doesn't explain all the missing kills from info we know.
Mafia seems to have a line on the wolves, hopefully the wolves have a line on Mafia. As long as one of them is correct then town has a chance.
No lynch is the play.

The only smart posts are to try to suggest optimal night kills for each scum faction.

[Thor665]

For my money I'm leaning Umlaut and Vedith - if you are scum and not one of them, shoot one of them.
If you're one of them and scum, shoot the other one.

I'll do an analysis of Ari partner logic tomorrow if we haven't hammered the no lynch.

[Thor665]

I wish I could scum read you.

You're awkward because you are hurting a little bit stepping away from the plan yesterday (which, incidentally worked about as well as you could ever have hoped - and, surprise, town is in a bad situation). It's leaving you floundering because you don't want to be wrong about me being scum, but are being left with ever reducing scenarios where I make any sense as scum. It's why you're coming in with this song that apparently I am a Wolf who I guess was protected for two nights as Mafia tried to kill me or something? I blatantly don't make sense as scum - feel free to move along any day.

[Thor665]

Going back to look at Ari's posting I tend to put JJD as almost assuredly not Wolf. Whoop-dee-dum.
That said, the wagon on him Day 1 is looking interesting;

Aristophanes

: Umlaut,

oldwino

,

Raya36

,

WhyMafia, Crush

So, what is the chance that the Wolf wagon was lead early by his buddy?
Seems a touch unlikely. So, if you're Mafia and *not* Umlaut or Vedith I would say oh dear gawd shoot Vedith. If you're Mafia and Umlaut, derp on me.
But either way Umlaut actually seems unlikely to be a Wolf methinks.

I think the other interesting place to look will be the front end of yesterday when everyone and their uncle was talking about lynching Ari, because someone was bussing or not being legit in that push. I'll take a peek there later also.

I'd actually kind of like to hear Vedith and Umlaut toss out their top considerations for each potential Mafia and Wolf partner.

[Thor665]

I have no idea what's currently going on.

Are you aware of who is dead and who is alive?
Because to a certain extent that's all the info you need to be relatively on top of today.

[Thor665]

@Umlaut - considering you're claiming a role that prevents kills, and *literally* the only case on me is based on a theory JKer stopping my kills I would like to point out that you're being narf. That said, i didn't think you were a Wolf anyway, so even if you thought I was Mafia that changes nothing,a nd if you think I'm a Wolf then...derp-de-derp.

@S_S - Yeah, forcing Prisoner's Dilema - the optimal win shot for town. Why didn't I think of advocating a plan to get us into that situation?

No lynch still remains the best play, and I am still the only one trying to help scum target shots with a very askew plotting for Umlaut. So...yeah.

[Thor665]

I already advocated no lynch today because it's the best town can hope for barring assured scum lynch.
You're currently sheeping my plan, which is both the worst case scenario of my plan yesterday and the best case scenario for yours from yesterday.
So, yeah, I'll admit I'm not sheeping your plans.

[Thor665]

Vedith copping to having no idea is the most suspicious thing about him, really.

I tend to agree, he's intentionally trying to avoid providing info.
The boggle I have is that with your claim now basically going uncountered is that I'm wrong about S_S or JJD, which pleases me not at all.

So the scum in JJD S_S should shoot Vedith.
Vedith scum...well, if you're town you're just screwed sideways. If you're scum you need to juggle the idea of me, S_S, and JJD as scum. I vaguely would guess S_S just because his plans and conclusions are proveably bad but he cites unshown logic to support them, but I'll admit that's potentially a playstyle thought on my part and maybe JJD is just hard playing me. But I would note that yesterday, if JJD is playing me, he's playing me amazingly well as he literally went against his wincon regardless of which scum type he would theory be.

[Thor665]

I would also like to point out to both remaining scum, that literally unless you shoot the other scum player you're putting yourself into a worse position statistically.
So, y'know, an Umlaut shot is literally the dumbest thing you can do.
So don't.

[Thor665]

If you're not 100% on No Lynch are you 100% on someone being scum?

[Thor665]

I ask because as far as I can see it should be a switch. Either you're 100% on someone as scum, or 100% on No Lynch - because neither is a good idea if the other is a good idea to you.

[Thor665]

A lynch today gives us either lylo tomorrow, a kingmaker, or assured town loss.
A no lynch today gives us lylo with an assured town or kingmaker with an assured town tomorrow with no possibility of assured town loss.

So, literally, the only way a lynch today is good is if we lynch scum - any other result is, at best, less good than a no lynch, or far worse.
Therefore the only way a lynch is a good idea is if you have 100% certainty on scum - which you say you don't have.
So how is this a good idea exactly?

[Thor665]

You keep talking like you understand this setup, but you keep saying things I know are factually untrue.
Why is this?

[Thor665]

Are you sweating to have the option to kill Umlaut?

[Thor665]

Because lynching today is better if we lynch scum. That doesn't mean I have to be 100% confident, it means I need to be confident enough to risk it.

[Thor665]

I don't think I am confident enough to lynch. But the point stands that I COULD be.

[Thor665]

And also backs up my stance that you're advocating bad plans, and then getting dodgy in your language when called on it/

[Thor665]

Well, you're not voting no lynch, you're not advancing cases to help scum shoot accurately, and you're mincing words on the bad plan of lynching someone today.
So, no, I don't think you are.

[Thor665]

Either that or you REALLY misunderstand what I'm advocating.

[Thor665]

How do I make sense as Werewolf with the missing kills sweet lips?

[Thor665]

Oooooh - little hole in your bad theory, huh?
Got a problem with a second obv. town existing, don't you?
Thanks for playing.
::mic drop::

[Thor665]

Now you're ignoring the possibility of you being shot?

So you're saying the Mafia tried to kill me a few times?
Why?

You're shading me like crazy while still somehow townreading me, and neither Vedith nor Judge makes a lick of sense as Ari's partner.

I haven't been townreading you since Umlaut's claim and said as much.
So you're right about the "shade" because I am calling you likely scum.

[Thor665]

How does me being Wolf make sense with me killing Comm?

[Thor665]

not gonna answer

I would say that's a good defense, because every answer will make your case look more and more ridiculous.
But I'll agree that's only to my benefit, not yours.
Remember yesterday when I was assured Mafia?
Now I'm assured Wolf.
Your case is bollocks.

[Thor665]

I did not intend to post that lol

not gonna answer a question I literally just answered @1880

You didn't answer it though.
Your theory was scum no killing in an Open game (because *that* makes any sense)
Paired with the JKer protecting me from Mafia kills because...no reason.
Paired with, ooooh, maybe Umlaut protected someone at some point, somehow - which is based on nothing because you don't even know what protective effect he's claiming unless you're a wolf and had to deal with it.

[Thor665]

You had Comm as scum, I see no reason why you wouldn't kill him.

Good job not reading my cases.
I had him as lock *Wolf* and that's why I never voted him yesterday.

[Thor665]

So I thought he was Mafia and decided to clear him from that even though the best play for wolves would be to lynch Mafia or the PR yesterday?
Riiiiight.

My plans are brilliant.

[Thor665]

I mean, if I'm wolf why are YOU alive?

Because you know your Mafia case on me was balls and that's why you dropped it so quick when I called you on it and never brought it up again.
I town told like a boss, so you were killing elsewhere.

[Thor665]

And it was still a vastly better case than your Thor is Wolf case.

[Thor665]

Choosing between S_S and me only really matters for you if you're scum or want to try to help direct shots, otherwise you can sort it tomorrow.
But I'll note that it's blatantly obvious that S_S isn't reading and is likely that he is intentionally pushing logic he knows is false also, and I don't see an argument for either behavior coming from a town slot.

[Thor665]

I'm a little afraid that both Vedith and Thor will shoot me actually.

And my reasoning for Thor is WW is that nobody else makes sense as WW and it would explain his tryharding.

If I'm scum I've made a vastly stronger case on Vedith than I have on you unless I'm a Wolf.
If I'm a wolf clearly I'd shoot you - but any Mafia should shoot Vedith.
Please feel free to read my posts before you go into more empty fear mongering.

[Thor665]

Or in that scenario you could lynch Judge and force a prisoner's dilemma...

Pedit: but Vedith is mafia.

How would I get Judge lynched if I'm advocating no lynch?
And if you mean 'kill' then I personally feel like you're trying to soft cut me a deal because you actually do think I'm the Wolf - let me assure you, no theory deal, and you're scum.

I understand that.

Also Raya just signed up for another game.

Yeah, as evidence this seems pretty weak as it's not like you led a wagon on him. If anything I could argue that this was you hoping to get a replace going on a lackluster partner or something.
How do you think this clears you?

[Thor665]

For the record - it looks incredibly reachy to claim that as an anti-Mafia case on yourself.

[Thor665]

Yes, by not being the first to bring it up it somehow adds credence to the idea as you parrot it...?

[Thor665]

That is depressing to me and my reads like fifty times over.
JJD, you broke my heart, I seriously thought you were town. I have no idea why you ever bothered to step in to stop my lynch, it literally doesn't make sense to me, was it just being too locked into your town persona?

In any case, there is only one play here.

Vote: No lynch

Have fun with that one guys, I'll sleep fine

[Thor665]

You should vote me now then.
That way no one can win.

[Thor665]

I'm okay with that.

@JJD - S_S lied to you quite a bit woth his claim, he played you to try to help his wincon. I can respect that, but I can't respect his abject lying and attempts to try to pass off poor strategy as good.
Here's the deal, you gamed me much better than he did.
Also, you know who I killed last night, so you know my goals are not exactly playing against your wincon at this stage.

I'm killing town.
You can kill me for a clean win, or no kill for a combined win - your choice.
But this will not be S_S's win, nor the vast lurky town's, I assure you.

[Thor665]

what would you do if:

1- we both decided to shoot you and settle for a draw?
2- one of us decides they've lost anyway so they refrain from shooting the other granting them the win instead of you?

That's funny, similar minds

His problem was he didn't ask you who you shot last night.

[Thor665]

For my money, town lost when they opted not to lynch me twice for...no reason at all.
I'll admit I still have no idea why you leapt into that fracas on my side though - but at least it didn't hurt your wincon.

[Thor665]

Reading your answer more fully (I was shocked you opted to claim, I'll admit)
You actually provided answers both to me, and the info he should have noted.
Maybe he was over excited also - after all, his wincon is based on the cross shot.

Glad I hoodwinked you for at least a while - you maybe should have sold your defense just a shade softer though, as even if I was town a lynch on me was okay. But, I know how that can get, even as scum I kind of like to be 'right'.

[Thor665]

I mean, I was totally right. If we'd lynched you instead of Lang we would have gone into MYLO and there's no way I would have voted for either wolf.

That's a problem with your scumhunting and town lurking, not an advocacy of the plan.

[Thor665]

the thor i know (ahem) is trustworthy, so i will settle for a draw with you. deal

Aw sweet!
The laurel for me though is somehow wriggling out of the lynch.
When I replaced in Mafia were up the special creek sans paddle.

[Thor665]

But how exactly did you know your reads were wrong?
You can't 20/20 bad reads after flips as a justification of a plan.

[Thor665]

So your only confident read was me?

[Thor665]

Also Thor, I was meaning to ask before. You said I lied quite a bit... what were you referring to? I never tried to play anyone until the very end when I tried to trick you into shooting Judge (and for the record, I was almost certain Judge would shoot Thor there, so I'm surprised that he didn't play for the win).

I was referring to the lies at the end while also building up a little the "lies" of your strategies in order to paint you as an untrustworthy faction not worth the win.

We should've just lynched Thor. Wolves made the right decision in killing me because I was looking toward JJD after Lang's flip. He would've been in the boiler if I survived the night.

I have no idea why I wasn't lynched.
If the QTs are released you'll see that mine is basically a long monologue of 'what the hell?' every day start.

Don't NL in 5p lylo kiddos....

Depends on your wincon and reads, frankly.

[Thor665]

Thor, GG staying alive somehow! Also, why shoot me that night?

I was trying to shoot town, and honestly believed the logic I used to suggest you weren't a likely Werewolf, and I knew you weren't Mafia, and I felt like I had JJD town more on my side, so...

[Thor665]

I am truly the master of lonely rants

[Thor665]

I like how in the DeadQT BT^ basically announces every single night as interesting

[Thor665]

Which time?
Because today it was absolutely in town's interest to do so.
And the other day, it was a decent idea presuming they didn't have confident scum reads - and I'd been working very hard to burn those (and if a read on me had been good they should have lynched me the day we lynched you, frankly).

[Thor665]

Your playstyle probably needs work if you want to shift voting a scum to lynching a scum.

[Thor665]

Most towns whiff Part 1, this one oddly fell apart at Part 2.

[Thor665]

I felt maybe I should have claimed jailkeeper here but I was hoping only town would see it. :/

I've always been of the opinion that town need a flashing roadsign - not a subtle point.

[Thor665]

I agree with the above in retrospect.
Of course if you look at Titus' jails she didn't actually have a clear lock on me as scum either, but if she had then yeah.

[Thor665]

Also I wasn't in the game for a night phase yet, I was a replacement.
So a history of my play shouldn't have been a consideration.