A Mid-Scummer Night's Dream - D.S. al Fine

[Lady Lambdadelta]

So yeah, go ahead and give into your apathy instead of playing the game. I know I'm the next on the list of people to lynch

I'm scumreading you for not pushing anything with any conviction or energy at all.

I don't think that's unfair of me.

I actually think it is really unfair of you to expect me to ahve the same conviction, energy and focus that I would normally have when this game is already apathy inducing, my real life is legitimately the most stressful it will ever be with immigration to worry about, and I'm not allowed to be myself in this game and tell people off.

I have to bite my tongue while I get more and more frustrated and try desperately to give a fuck while not actually posting my feelings on shit.

So yeah it's a little unfair of you.

[drealmerz7]

I really don't think I'm being that bad at all

shit

[mhsmith0]

I chose Smith because he's a question mark. He's exactly the kind of dude who potentially is the final mislynch that loses us this game. He's as we say "in the middle of the road".

And why was that, in your mind, the optimal play here?

Like, I get why as a hider you'd check hebi n1, if she's super town to you and not the board, then that's a decent clear (and I think it's pretty obvious scum weren't going to shoot her n1, so yeah that's fine as a check I'd say).

I don't really understand the gain from checking imperium n2, unless you were MORE confident that they were town compared to consensus (since presumably you were trying not to die at that point?), except it seems you were explicitly SRing them? IIRC you didn't crumb or anything else either, possibly I missed it?

And I understand even LESS the gain from checking me n3. In literally zero worlds are you non self aware enough to think you were anything other than a very likely d4 lynch given that the mason pair was screaming about a CC on d2, AND that the d3 lynch was very strong on you being scum (brian was also fairly widely TRd and wanted your head, and while hider!you wouldn't have known he was going to die, hider!you would reasonably have known that if he lived that was a voice likely to care a LOT about lynching you d4)

So given that fairly obvious set of circumstances, your hider choice would be... a null? I don't understand AT ALL why you, in said position, would not be thinking

1) I'm going to target someone I think is scum (not null, scum) and try to die so I save town a lynch and get back to evens
2) I'm going to target someone I think is town but EVERYONE ELSE thinks is scum (the list of 3 seems like a generically obvious set there to be sorting from), so that either I die (which puts the game back at odds), or I clear someone who had solid odds of falling into being the final mislynch, and who (if the watcher was clever) might well be a watcher target and therefore I could be confirmed

You pretty clearly had neither thought process, going instead for someone who was, in your claimed headspace, just a null. What's the point? What's the gain?

[mhsmith0]

^actually as an addendum, imperium just seems like a generically plausible NK (obviously NMS was likelier given their claim, but if you're just SPKing, then they're on a short list of "better kill them before they start giving a shit and influencing the game", and if on n2 we were still on odds with a d1 scum lynch, the board seems open enough that collecting clears seems generically optimal, but instead you're claiming you were aiming for scum if I had it right? I guess I don't understand at all what you were going for there either.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I chose Smith because he's a question mark. He's exactly the kind of dude who potentially is the final mislynch that loses us this game. He's as we say "in the middle of the road".

And why was that, in your mind, the optimal play here?

Like, I get why as a hider you'd check hebi n1, if she's super town to you and not the board, then that's a decent clear (and I think it's pretty obvious scum weren't going to shoot her n1, so yeah that's fine as a check I'd say).

I don't really understand the gain from checking imperium n2, unless you were MORE confident that they were town compared to consensus (since presumably you were trying not to die at that point?), except it seems you were explicitly SRing them? IIRC you didn't crumb or anything else either, possibly I missed it?

And I understand even LESS the gain from checking me n3. In literally zero worlds are you non self aware enough to think you were anything other than a very likely d4 lynch given that the mason pair was screaming about a CC on d2, AND that the d3 lynch was very strong on you being scum (brian was also fairly widely TRd and wanted your head, and while hider!you wouldn't have known he was going to die, hider!you would reasonably have known that if he lived that was a voice likely to care a LOT about lynching you d4)

So given that fairly obvious set of circumstances, your hider choice would be... a null? I don't understand AT ALL why you, in said position, would not be thinking

1) I'm going to target someone I think is scum (not null, scum) and try to die so I save town a lynch and get back to evens
2) I'm going to target someone I think is town but EVERYONE ELSE thinks is scum (the list of 3 seems like a generically obvious set there to be sorting from), so that either I die (which puts the game back at odds), or I clear someone who had solid odds of falling into being the final mislynch, and who (if the watcher was clever) might well be a watcher target and therefore I could be confirmed

You pretty clearly had neither thought process, going instead for someone who was, in your claimed headspace, just a null. What's the point? What's the gain?

Because yesterday ended without me giving any kind of clue as to who I was targetting, and I refuse to do what people tell me to do simply because they told me to do it.

Without a crumb, I'm not shooting for scummy people.

Withuot any real town cred to ensure I live longer, I'm not aiming for town people for the purpose of living.

So last night I aimed for one thing: "Who do I think is the most likely to be the final mislynch that loses us this game?" and I identified that as you, and targeted you to either die, and feel confident you'd probably be lynched eventually, or live and be certain you will never be lynched.

Night 2 I targetted Imperium because I crumbed it and I was suspicious of them. Nacho is a good enough player that if I confirm him as town, he and I could do some serious damage. If he's scum, it could be very bad for us. I feel it was the perfect target because again he was in the middle of the road.

You don't target people on the edges, you target people in the middle for maximum value.

[Cephrir]

I actually think it is really unfair of you to expect me to ahve the same conviction, energy and focus that I would normally have when this game is already apathy inducing, my real life is legitimately the most stressful it will ever be with immigration to worry about, and I'm not allowed to be myself in this game and tell people off.

I suppose.

It's hard for me to remember this and keep it in my thoughts consistently.

Ugh.

[Sakura Hana]

Dunno I've never seen smith as "the final mislynch that would lose the game" in any game ever, plus he's one of regfan's "bet the game on" townreads.

My issue with you is that yesterday most of what you talked about was how you were using your role in some sort of plan, also about Desp, and about Hebi, but nothing else really. You never engaged with me about my Regfan townread yesterday even tho you said you'd talk about it when i mentioned it back in D2, other than to say "oh i did coz it would interfere with my plan", and now he's apparently in your scum list again?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Dunno I've never seen smith as "the final mislynch that would lose the game" in any game ever, plus he's one of regfan's "bet the game on" townreads.

My issue with you is that yesterday most of what you talked about was how you were using your role in some sort of plan, also about Desp, and about Hebi, but nothing else really. You never engaged with me about my Regfan townread yesterday even tho you said you'd talk about it when i mentioned it back in D2, other than to say "oh i did coz it would interfere with my plan", and now he's apparently in your scum list again?

Your role doesn't clear Regfan in any manner, so I've taken to ignoring your claims regarding it. The only reason Reg was in my townpool was because YOU SAID he was and YOU are town.

[Sakura Hana]

Of course also the issue that Desp flipped town and he was very onto you, and Brian dying when he swore he would go after you today with everything.

I mean Brian NK to frame might be a thing, but that'd be unnecessary when most of us would've lynched you today anyway.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Of course also the issue that Desp flipped town and he was very onto you, and Brian dying when he swore he would go after you today with everything.

I mean Brian NK to frame might be a thing, but that'd be unnecessary when most of us would've lynched you today anyway.

I don't think that it would be unnecessary for keeping apathy up?

Like, Bryan was three things:

1) Very obviously town
2) Very obviously the person who cared the most about this game
3) Very obviously wanting to lynch me

A kill on him is good for scum because it frames me, continues to generate the culture of apathy and kills an obvious town player they can't bring into late game anyway?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Like even if you say "they don't need to kill Brian to frame you, since you'd already be lynched", you're ignoring the point.

Because I'm a good enough player that if I ever wake up from my fucking stupor and give a fuck about this game, I suspect it could be hard to lynch me, so why wouldn't someone like Regfan shoot Brian to guarantee I go down for it?

And secondly, even if that's not a thing that crossed their minds, Parts 1 and 2 are still very true. Brian being dead is a huge detriment to us in this game.

[Sakura Hana]

I wish i could predict who's going to die that easily.

[Sakura Hana]

Regardless if Regfan is scum he very well knows that im weak to buddying coz it's working.
And even if he is scum... well, let's just say he made a very big mistake.

[mhsmith0]

Without a crumb, I'm not shooting for scummy people.

Withuot any real town cred to ensure I live longer, I'm not aiming for town people for the purpose of living.

...

You don't target people on the edges, you target people in the middle for maximum value.

I don't understand this perspective at all.

You say you're not looking for townies to survive and accumulate clears, since you know you're under potential pressure (fine in and of itself)

But you ALSO say you're not shooting for scummy people, even though you know you're a major potential lynch today (and even though this was frankly obvious for most of d3, especially since for basically all of d3 it was super unclear who the lynch even would be on), and even though the cost of dying at night and putting the game back on odds is pretty small, and the gain from clearing a scummy town slot is fairly obviously very large.


I also don't understand why in particular I'd be the last mislynch here, when IIRC a LOT of people were TRing me (and it was kinda obvious that basically no one gave a shit about anything brian was saying) and I'd basically absorbed zero votes across multiple day phases, which means that if I was null, then you're essentially treating me as MORE scummy than what board consensus was (or I'm really misremembering things). In particular, I don't understand why you'd think "last mislynch" of me instead of, say...

He didn't want to actually lynch me. He was hoping some other bad lurk fuck like Maria would get lynched and he could keep tunnelling on Hebi and I, getting off scot free without doing anything.

Now he's got 5 votes and he realizes Maria isn't happening right now, so he needs to double down.

Like, you'd even explicitly identified her as a "yeah this is probably getting lynched sooner or later" slot (the blatant collapse of her WIM also made that just generically likely), but that wasn't a slot you were interested in clearing via hider action. So that's the first "why didn't you target there" slot I want you to explain - did you think she was scummy? It seems like you didn't, but maybe I misunderstood?

[mhsmith0]

Also, if Brian was a setup kill, then that's a setup kill against his two strongest SRs (LLD and me), except before LLD's claim I don't think anyone even cared to mention my name today so far? I guess I don't really get it; what am I missing there?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'm looking to be useful down the road, not today.

and yeah, I'm sure a lot of people will town read you until things go wrong, Regfan sweeps this game, and suddenly it's like, you Sakura and Regfan in lylo and they lynch you.

Think about this for a bit, will you.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Also, if Brian was a setup kill, then that's a setup kill against his two strongest SRs (LLD and me), except before LLD's claim I don't think anyone even cared to mention my name today so far? I guess I don't really get it; what am I missing there?

You're missing that targetting someone like Maria doesn't actually add any value.

If scum want to keep leaving me alive, I can keep shooting to generate high value confirmed townies.

Which is why I suspect scum will be VERY eager to lynch me today.

You know who else would be a high value townie? Regfan.

We lynch someone like Drealmerz today, I target Regfan, and if I die and Regfan doesn't, you lynch that son of a bitch.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

You feel me, bruv?

[mhsmith0]

You're missing that targetting someone like Maria doesn't actually add any value.

Umm... why not? She's like BLATANTLY someone that people want to lynch. Do you think that she's town or scum? Because if she's town (and I feel like if you think reg is scum, then by extension you think she's town unless that looks at all like a bus to you?), green checking there is a huge +EV play that actively shakes up the game state in a useful manner.

[mhsmith0]

We lynch someone like Drealmerz today, I target Regfan, and if I die and Regfan doesn't, you lynch that son of a bitch.

On that end, I'll at least think on it (like, my off the cuff guess in a town!you world is something like reg/syr(now twie)/drealz, so it's at least something I'd consider, even if I'm still pretty decently leaning towards lynching you here)

[Lady Lambdadelta]

You're missing that targetting someone like Maria doesn't actually add any value.

Umm... why not? She's like BLATANTLY someone that people want to lynch. Do you think that she's town or scum? Because if she's town (and I feel like if you think reg is scum, then by extension you think she's town unless that looks at all like a bus to you?), green checking there is a huge +EV play that actively shakes up the game state in a useful manner.

She is negative utility for the town. There's three things.

1) If she is scum, and I die, she stops me being able to create more confirmed townies.
2) even if she IS town, and I confirm her, her reads and votes will continue to be useless, and she might actually lose us the game in lylo.
3) She was on the list of people Regfan suggested, so fuck that.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

We lynch someone like Drealmerz today, I target Regfan, and if I die and Regfan doesn't, you lynch that son of a bitch.

On that end, I'll at least think on it (like, my off the cuff guess in a town!you world is something like reg/syr(now twie)/drealz, so it's at least something I'd consider, even if I'm still pretty decently leaning towards lynching you here)

You wanna talk +/- EV? It is directly -EV to lynch me when we still have 2+ mislynches to work with.

[Sakura Hana]

Anyway I did say that I would lay it all down for everyone to see, but im still uncertain on why Regfan didnt die last night, Brian dying instead is well... weird for me. And im thinking LLD might be right about it?

So as I explained before, the reason I was barely active D1 is because I considered my role important to stay alive for town, problem is that at EoD, Regfan was my only strong TR, and I didn't wanna risk it with anyone else, Varsoon's hammer at the time and Desp interaction at that time had made me doubt my Varsoon TR and I didnt know what to do, so I just prayed scum wouldnt shoot Regfan and his ability would get lost and targeted him anyway, to my surprise the ability was to give a BP vest, as scum doesnt know who gets the ability I figured Regfan would be the very obvious target for the BP Vest and scum wouldnt try shooting him, although i still felt fear that they might shoot him anyway to get rid of the vest, although unlikely with 1 person down. To my surprise not only did he survive, but also i was given the BP Vest, with that then i increased my activity as there was no need for me to be worried about a NK anymore.

So in a Scum me, Reg Town scenario, scum would've known he wouldnt have a BP vest, and in a Town me Reg Scum scenario, he had no reason to give me the BP Vest as scum probably thought it was random, and this is why it gave me a very strong townread on Regfan.

Regardless if he's scum then he literally gave NK protection to a strong town PR, so... yeah that'd be the big mistake.

Why am i claiming this info? Well if Regfan's town then scum has a lot more incentive to NK him now, which will help sort that out eventually. Also it was obvious i targeted Regfan D1 anyway.

[mhsmith0]

You wanna talk +/- EV? It is directly -EV to lynch me when we still have 2+ mislynches to work with.

I'm presuming we only have 1 more mislynch to afford, barring us getting fairly lucky and getting a BP save (which probably depends in substantial part on whether scum received the BP or the ability to give out the BP - if either of those happened, obviously that's never gonna help us out), so yeah I'm kinda thinking it's basically crunch time here.

Of course, I have no real idea of what the mods like for town power, so at any rate seeing the mass claim results at least MAY be helpful in terms of sorting out what exactly we have to work with here.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

So then we do the play I discussed, right? I go to Regfan and we see what happens.