A Mid-Scummer Night's Dream - D.S. al Fine

[mhsmith0]

To my surprise not only did he survive, but also i was given the BP Vest, with that then i increased my activity as there was no need for me to be worried about a NK anymore.

well "who got the BP vest" completely didn't need to be shared with the class, so that's fun

@Reg: why did you give Sakura the BP? That seems like a fairly non-obvious action, VERY curious what the gain there was in your mind

[Lady Lambdadelta]

You wanna talk +/- EV? It is directly -EV to lynch me when we still have 2+ mislynches to work with.

I'm presuming we only have 1 more mislynch to afford, barring us getting fairly lucky and getting a BP save (which probably depends in substantial part on whether scum received the BP or the ability to give out the BP - if either of those happened, obviously that's never gonna help us out), so yeah I'm kinda thinking it's basically crunch time here.

Of course, I have no real idea of what the mods like for town power, so at any rate seeing the mass claim results at least MAY be helpful in terms of sorting out what exactly we have to work with here.

ok, but, think about the inverse situation.

You lynch me today, doing the scum's dirty work for them, I flip town and tonight, you probably die for being confirmed town.

Now what happens? Do you think town wins the game from that scenario, or does Regfan steamroll everyone?

[mhsmith0]

Like, taking exactly 10 seconds to think about it...

baku and munna (9): Regfan, Brian Skies, NoticeMeSenpai, drealmerz7, Cephrir, hiplop, MariaR, Sakura Hana, Varsoon

For starters, why didn't you send a BP to Brian or NMS, who were early on the baku wagon with you? A townie who can self-clear via day posting and live a long time is super valuable, so why did you think that Sakura was the optimal recipient there?

[mhsmith0]

You wanna talk +/- EV? It is directly -EV to lynch me when we still have 2+ mislynches to work with.

I'm presuming we only have 1 more mislynch to afford, barring us getting fairly lucky and getting a BP save (which probably depends in substantial part on whether scum received the BP or the ability to give out the BP - if either of those happened, obviously that's never gonna help us out), so yeah I'm kinda thinking it's basically crunch time here.

Of course, I have no real idea of what the mods like for town power, so at any rate seeing the mass claim results at least MAY be helpful in terms of sorting out what exactly we have to work with here.

ok, but, think about the inverse situation.

You lynch me today, doing the scum's dirty work for them, I flip town and tonight, you probably die for being confirmed town.

Now what happens? Do you think town wins the game from that scenario, or does Regfan steamroll everyone?

I am thinking on it, part of why I don't have a vote down rn.

[Sakura Hana]

well "who got the BP vest" completely didn't need to be shared with the class, so that's fun

Yeah your post right after i was like "ooops?"

[Sakura Hana]

Anyway, that's my info regarding regfan and why i strongly townread him, also why it was fairly obvious i cant be scum with him town. There was literally no reason to target me if he was scum, he could've targeted a buddy instead.

[mhsmith0]

Anyway, that's my info regarding regfan and why i strongly townread him, also why it was fairly obvious i cant be scum with him town. There was literally no reason to target me if he was scum, he could've targeted a buddy instead.

Why was reg town for giving you the vest?

[mhsmith0]

^I mean, uh, pocketing is a thing, and if scum figured that town wasn't going to get vig shots (or at most like maybe 1?) then there's pretty limited utility to giving it to a buddy. As scum, in most cases you're probably best off giving it to a townie who you don't think is going to threaten you (and/or who you think can buy off town cred), and just making sure you never shoot there.

[mhsmith0]

Also as part of mass claim everyone's gonna claim dream receptive or not.

[Sakura Hana]

Anyway, that's my info regarding regfan and why i strongly townread him, also why it was fairly obvious i cant be scum with him town. There was literally no reason to target me if he was scum, he could've targeted a buddy instead.

Why was reg town for giving you the vest?

From my PoV it at first came out of nowhere, but why would he not have given the vest to a buddy instead, that seems kind of anti-scum no? There was no way he could've thought a townie had targeted him for him to get the BP vest giving ability, so he literally didnt need to fake a towny way of using that ability.

[Sakura Hana]

^I mean, uh, pocketing is a thing, and if scum figured that town wasn't going to get vig shots (or at most like maybe 1?) then there's pretty limited utility to giving it to a buddy. As scum, in most cases you're probably best off giving it to a townie who you don't think is going to threaten you (and/or who you think can buy off town cred), and just making sure you never shoot there.

IF he is scum, then scum knows i have the BP, so me revealing that fact was in the best interest to do anyway as scum would never shoot me.
But as I said if he's scum that was his mistake, and only since yesterday i've starting doubting my TR there, because im self aware, that buddying is a weakness of mine, and he's not only done that but he's also hard defended me all game, me not soaking a bullet nor him dying last night may also have contributed.

[hebichan]

We have 3 mafia left most likely, 10 players alive.


If we assume that LLD is telling the truth about smith and I being town regardless of her alignment, we have a 3/8 change of hitting scum most likely.

Aka, I think we have a pretty good chance of hitting that today.

Out of all the possible scum team members I think Reg and LLD being left as scum would be the scariest, and getting either one away from scum (if they are scum) would make scum weaker.

So, unless someone brings something pretty damning, I think my lynch pool is at least heavily focused on those two.

[mhsmith0]

^I mean, uh, pocketing is a thing, and if scum figured that town wasn't going to get vig shots (or at most like maybe 1?) then there's pretty limited utility to giving it to a buddy. As scum, in most cases you're probably best off giving it to a townie who you don't think is going to threaten you (and/or who you think can buy off town cred), and just making sure you never shoot there.

I mean, this is probably gonna be jerkish of me, but reg giving you the vest instead of targeting whoever he thought was the #1 strongest townie (combination of rep, play this game, and how sure he was of target being town) is kinda

as a reaction. REALLY want to know what reg was going for there and why.

Like, I don't think you're bad and dont want to imply that, but I don't understand why town!him isn't giving the vest to generically high-reputation slots like Imperium, NMS (Jae head is a paragon nom this year), Brian (idk what reg thinks of brian as a player? and if he was lock town on him n1?), nancy/prism hydra (iirc they're supposed to have a decent rep? and they seemed like a generically plausible kill there?), hip (IIRC he has a good rep? could be wrong?), etc

[Lady Lambdadelta]

We have 3 mafia left most likely, 10 players alive.


If we assume that LLD is telling the truth about smith and I being town regardless of her alignment, we have a 3/8 change of hitting scum most likely.

Aka, I think we have a pretty good chance of hitting that today.

Out of all the possible scum team members I think Reg and LLD being left as scum would be the scariest, and getting either one away from scum (if they are scum) would make scum weaker.

So, unless someone brings something pretty damning, I think my lynch pool is at least heavily focused on those two.

You also lose the game if you lynch incorrectly there.

The plan is to lynch scum from the remaining pool and have me target Regfan with my ability tonight. That will solve both of us, one way or another.

[hebichan]

We have 3 mafia left most likely, 10 players alive.


If we assume that LLD is telling the truth about smith and I being town regardless of her alignment, we have a 3/8 change of hitting scum most likely.

Aka, I think we have a pretty good chance of hitting that today.

Out of all the possible scum team members I think Reg and LLD being left as scum would be the scariest, and getting either one away from scum (if they are scum) would make scum weaker.

So, unless someone brings something pretty damning, I think my lynch pool is at least heavily focused on those two.

You also lose the game if you lynch incorrectly there.

The plan is to lynch scum from the remaining pool and have me target Regfan with my ability tonight. That will solve both of us, one way or another.

Except if you're lying about your role, it won't and you can say "Oh hey, Reg was town, I was wrong."

[Sakura Hana]

Oh also we now knowing that Regfan has no BP could prevent any sort of "Oh i was shot but i had BP" situations for him to get out of a hider guilty.
That being said if LLD's gonna target Regfan 100% tonight then that kills 2 birds with one stone, either LLD dies, or both die (or scum kills elsewhere for some weird reason). Scum literally has all the incentive to shoot Regfan tonight if Regfan and LLD are both town now.

[Sakura Hana]

Like, I don't think you're bad and dont want to imply that

Yeah now that you mention it.
At that point i was still playing very low radar due to not wanting to get shot or ML'd as that would leave dreams literally at RNG mercy.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

We have 3 mafia left most likely, 10 players alive.


If we assume that LLD is telling the truth about smith and I being town regardless of her alignment, we have a 3/8 change of hitting scum most likely.

Aka, I think we have a pretty good chance of hitting that today.

Out of all the possible scum team members I think Reg and LLD being left as scum would be the scariest, and getting either one away from scum (if they are scum) would make scum weaker.

So, unless someone brings something pretty damning, I think my lynch pool is at least heavily focused on those two.

You also lose the game if you lynch incorrectly there.

The plan is to lynch scum from the remaining pool and have me target Regfan with my ability tonight. That will solve both of us, one way or another.

Except if you're lying about your role, it won't and you can say "Oh hey, Reg was town, I was wrong."

and if we're both alive tomorrow, we have this conversation.

But right now it makes no sense to do what you're suggesting.

[Sakura Hana]

Wait if smith is town does that mean we're gonna lose the game?
</joke>

[hebichan]

Wait if smith is town does that mean we're gonna lose the game?
</joke>

Smith is town, LLD is lying regardless of alignment.

[TheWayItEnds]

ugh, please read, it's been like 12 short posts

i did read the posts.

but since they were stupid im pointedly ignoring them.

thanks for your concern.

ok then I'm not sure I get where your "what's going on" post is coming from

we're playing mafia

we're trying to find scum

some of us are displeased at LLD's play to a high degree

I'm inclined to agree that we could just lynch maria today and let LLD have 1 more Day

what do you think about the gamestate? what's going on with you?

oh well the deal with that was originally the post ended "or are we all gonna sit around and ask really stupid questions instead."

and then i realized that everyone was already doing that so i deleted it and put or whats going on.

but whats going on really meant

can you all stop being stupid.

[TheWayItEnds]

sorry for any confusion.

[mhsmith0]

Wait if smith is town does that mean we're gonna lose the game?
</joke>

Smith is town, LLD is lying regardless of alignment.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Wait if smith is town does that mean we're gonna lose the game?
</joke>

Smith is town, LLD is lying regardless of alignment.

Yeah I've got a big ass fucking ????? for that statement too

[hebichan]

Wait if smith is town does that mean we're gonna lose the game?
</joke>

Smith is town, LLD is lying regardless of alignment.

Yeah I've got a big ass fucking ????? for that statement too

Uhh sorry, that was supposed to be not lying