LoL eSports Discussion

zoraster · Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:45 am

In post 6657, Voidedmafia wrote:G2, H2K, and Splyce are effectively the teams to go to Worlds, so...The only notable lines here are if Giants can go anywhere and how much of this Fnatic is a shadow of itself.

? I don't think this is correct at all. It may be the teams going, but I wouldn't confuse "perceived team strength now" as "these will be the teams to win out in the gauntlet."

G2 is obviously going as #1 or #2 (doesn't matter for EU!). Everyone else is determined by playing the playoffs out or in the gauntlet.

Unicorns if they don't win it all can finish with up to 100 points, 80 points for third, 50 for fourth
Fnatic finishes with 70
H2K will finish with at least 70 for 4th, 100 for third, 120 for second
Vitality will finish with at least 50 for fourth, 80 for third, 100 for second.
Giants have to play the full gauntlet regardless.

zoraster · Thu Aug 18, 2016 9:01 am

Yeah. But that's a pretty big deal if you can escape being #3 or #4 in the gauntlet seeding. Origen being removed made it so everyone from these playoffs gets into the gauntlet.

zoraster · Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:46 am

I wouldn't worry about G2 at worlds. They're a different team than the one who went to MSI.

zoraster · Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:49 pm

They still might go out in groups, but that's kinda par for a west team.

zoraster · Sat Aug 20, 2016 9:54 am

Anyyyyway. Splyce beating out H2K kind of surprised me. Wonder with gnar was pretty awesome.

zoraster · Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:10 am

I mean they lost 3-2 to the third seed. That's obviously a disappointment for them and not what they would have expected, but it's not like when they got 3-0d by a then-6th seed.

Certainly better than Team Liquid, after all.

zoraster · Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:18 am

EU is kind of fun because it means that if G2 loses to UoL it's really simple: UoL or Splyce needs to win the finals to get in without the gauntlet.

If G2 wins the finals, and H2K wins third, H2K goes. If UoL wins third, it looks like maybe Splyce makes it in over UoL because Splyce=90, UoL=80.

If G2 loses the finals to Splyce, it'll be Splyce+G2.

Because of worlds seeding giving EU two 2 seeds and no 1 seeds, G2 probably doesn't care too much about the result of the playoffs for seeding purposes (obviously they care because they should want to win and prove themselves).

zoraster · Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:29 am

C9 will have 100 points if they lose the finals. They'll obviously go if they win the finals.
Immortals will have 120 or 90 points, third and fourth respectively.

If CLG wins today and they lose the finals, they go as second seed. In the case of CLG winning today, TSM will have either 140 or 110 points.

So if CLG wins today and C9 loses the finals, the winner of the TSM vs. IMT's third place match goes (120 vs. 110 if Immortal's wins)

If TSM wins the split, CLG goes as second seed (140 points vs. IMT's potential 120 or C9's potential 100).

If TSM wins today and loses in the finals, TSM will be second seed, C9 #1. (a tie between CLG at third and TSM at second would go to TSM because summer split trumps).

Obviously the gauntlet position matters. But basically C9 needs to win the split to go and avoid the gauntlet. CLG is in unless TSM loses to C9 in the finals. Immortals gets in only if CLG wins today and they get third place over TSM.

zoraster · Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:58 am

If you say each team has a 50% chance of winning each match, their odds are well above 60%.

zoraster · Mon Aug 22, 2016 8:36 am

yeah. Not sure how they split it, but if it's just 5k per player extra (over second place) that's not a bad reason to try.

zoraster · Fri Aug 26, 2016 2:53 am

In post 6692, BROseidon wrote:
In post 6687, Cabd wrote:SO, we smelling franchising, or what?

#LCSForever
I really hope not tbh.

Pro/Rel is a good system.

It's a better system when there's some inherent value in being a challenger team OUTSIDE of the possibility of getting to LCS. As it stands, it's pretty much a way to churn a profit by selling the spot.

And that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if it weren't clear there's basically no connection between buying a team and the players you use. C9C will sell its spot. Do you think Hai is going to play on that team? No, of course not. Because these are generally not well established teams, there's no fan loyalty to those teams in particular once they make it and the players are different.

"Owning" a team in League of Legends has a pretty hard cap to how much value it can generate. Typically sports offer teams ticket sales, broadcast rights, and concessions. Think about it: how do teams make money now? Merchandise and sponsorships. Even the Tampa Bay Rays get to sell tickets to the Yankees games. And to be clear, even if ticket sales were split between teams that wouldn't help that much because unlike other sports, Riot's profit doesn't come from anything to do with ticket sales or broadcasting. It comes from something that Riot will likely never share: skin sales.

The only real value to the teams is a perceived growth in esports which, without changes, mistakenly thinks there's a lot of growth in profits to teams. Which leads to inflated valuations and prices. But even if LoL were to become as established as the NFL, as long as Riot has the major potential profit centers, team ownership is hamstrung.

zoraster · Fri Aug 26, 2016 3:00 pm

Do you think CLG is likely to do better?

zoraster · Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:40 pm

So apparently Giants aren't even bothering to scrim before the Gauntlet. So I guess it's probably down to UoL, Splyce and Fnatic.

zoraster · Mon Sep 05, 2016 3:08 am

Yeah I'm excited about today. Super high pressure situation with teams that will want to go very, very badly. I like all of the teams even if Yamatocannon kind of seems like a pretentious jerk.

zoraster · Mon Sep 05, 2016 3:35 am

In post 6734, SleepyKrew wrote:wtf yamato is so cool

So was Regina George

zoraster · Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:18 am

"awesome. I'll just do cardio during Game 3 until it's over"

61 minutes later.

zoraster · Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:24 am

If you're going to pick eccentric teams to have as a favorite, you should probably develop a secondary favorite to root for that's more established.

I'm glad I get to go to groups because I'll get to see most of the teams at least once.

zoraster · Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:56 pm

I mean Hai was a large reason they managed to get to worlds last year. Not sure I get your hatred of him. Certainly not the most technically gifted player, and I think any team that has him has a certain ceiling, but I wouldn't forget that C9 actually did well in the first half of the group stages before flaming out the second half.

I have higher hopes because I think C9 has regularly performed better and has a higher ceiling with better talent this year. I also think NA is way better this year than last.

zoraster · Mon Sep 05, 2016 3:36 pm

In post 6750, BROseidon wrote:Like, I don't "hate" him, but post-lung he just couldn't play at the level he needed to. He's still probably the best shotcaller the west has ever had, and among the best in the world.

Sure. But it's not like he didn't try to leave, and his presence enabled his team to make worlds.

zoraster · Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:56 am

trying to figure out which groups I'm going to see. Doesn't seem to be confirmed.

zoraster · Sat Sep 10, 2016 8:01 am

yeah group b is going to be super tough for C9 but being a pool 3 that was likely.

zoraster · Sat Sep 10, 2016 8:24 am

Is it available? I'll set it up as soon as it is.

zoraster · Sat Sep 10, 2016 8:27 am

TSM dodged SKT which was the only team that drawing would put their quarterfinal spot into jeopardy if they live up to their hype. Like... it's possible TSM gets second in this group, but if they get third they will have very much disappointed. Splyce is the hardest Group 3 draw they could have gotten, of course. But TSM's fate is very much in their own hands.

zoraster · Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:34 am

So let's say in an alternate world G2 didn't screw MSI up and was a Number 1 seed, replacing Flashwolves. G2 would be against SKT, IMAY and C9 rather than Rox, CLG and ANX. I think they can be pretty happy about that (I didn't look back to see which teams were bumped as that might have changed things).

zoraster · Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:39 am

World Championship Pick Em

zoraster · Tue Sep 13, 2016 2:07 pm

Wow. Rivington looks like a different person. Phreak looks exactly the same. Maybe with a better tan.

zoraster · Thu Sep 22, 2016 3:06 pm

Okay. So my wife is dressing up as Dino Gnar for World's. She knit some awesome looking ears, has a dino costume, has a boomerang, and will be bringing our plush gnar.

So here's my question: can you think of any sign slogans (particularly "Gnary" slogans) we could do to get her on the air? I think she'd enjoy that. We'll be there on the first Saturday, possibly the second saturday or sunday (though the saturday is super expensive right now given it's TSM day.)

zoraster · Thu Sep 22, 2016 5:23 pm

DEMAGLIO

zoraster · Fri Sep 23, 2016 3:37 am

In post 6796, Glork wrote:Make sure she learns and can do the dance (including voice components).

This implies she doesn't already know it.

Unfortunately I think handstands are out of the question.

zoraster · Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:28 am

World Championship Pick Em

You have only about a day to make your picks! do them today!

zoraster · Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:30 am

I hate looking up game schedules, so I'm posting this here and then I'll post in the OP. Game schedule is as follows:

Day 1: September 29th at 4:30pm PDT (7:30pm EDT)

G2 vs. CLG
ROX vs. Albus (I wish this team had Dumbledoge)
H2K vs. ahq
INTZ vs. EDG
Samsung vs. Splyce
TSM vs. RNG

This is a deceptively good set of games. It has 2 sets of games we expect to be fighting for the 2nd spot and another that's important for both teams (TSM vs. RNG). If Splyce can upset Samsung Galaxy it makes things really interesting too. I think that's a long shot though. A couple of what should be super boring games though with wild card teams vs. 1 seeds.

Day 2: September 30th at 4pm PDT (7pm EDT)

SKT vs. C9
Flash Wolves vs. I May
TSM vs. Samsung
RNG vs. Splyce
H2K vs. INTZ
EDG vs. ahq

A front heavy lineup, I think. The front three games are important for determining order, but barring an upset the last three don't seem very competitive.

Day 3: October 1st at 4pm PDT (7pm EDT)

CLG vs. Albus
ROX vs. G2
FW vs. C9
I May vs. SKT
Splyce vs. TSM
RNG vs. Samsung

Probably my favorite schedule of the first week as this one is full of games that I expect to either be really meaningful (FW vs. C9, RNG vs. Samsung) or at least offer the possibility of a big upset (ROX vs. G2, I May vs. SKT, RNG vs. Samsung). CLG vs. Albus only offers sadness if CLG can't beat them.

Day 4: October 2nd at 4pm PDT (7pm EDT)

ahq vs. INTZ
EDG vs. H2K
Albus vs. G2
CLG vs. ROX
SKT vs. FW
C9 vs. I May

EDG vs. H2K and C9 vs. I May seem to me to be the big matches here.

Week 2

Group A (Day 5): October 6th at 4pm PDT (7pm EDT)

G2 vs. ROX
Albus vs. CLG
CLG vs. G2
Albus vs. ROX
G2 vs. Albus
ROX vs. CLG

Group C (Day 6): October 7th at 4pm PDT (7pm EDT)

EDG vs. INTZ
ahq vs. H2K
H2K vs. EDG
INTZ vs. ahq
INTZ vs. H2K
ahq vs. EDG

Group D (Day 7): October 8th at 1pm PDT (4pm EDT)

Samsung vs. TSM
Splyce vs. RNG
TSM vs. Splyce
Samsung vs. RNG
Splyce vs. Samsung
RNG vs. TSM

Note time change for games.

Group B (Day 8): October 9th at 1pm PDT (4pm EDT)

I May vs. FW
C9 vs. SKT
C9 vs. FW
SKT vs. I May
I May vs. C9
FW vs. SKT

They clearly loaded the second week groups with most popular groups on the weekend. Tickets for Saturday and Sunday are ridiculous, $125+ per.

zoraster · Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:31 am

OP has the above schedule without my annotations.

zoraster · Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:14 am

I've listed my ticket today for $175. It's a prime seat and there's only one other seat being sold and it's super crappy. So we'll see if anyone bites before I leave in a few hours.

If someone really does buy it at this price they'll be sitting next to someone who bought the seat next to them for $45 (I bought two, realized no one I knew was going to come so I sold it a few weeks ago).

zoraster · Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:38 am

Guess I'mnot going today! My ticket just sold for $175. Kinda sad I won't be there for Day 1, but relieved I don't have to spend 3 hours on trains today to get there. I'll be there on Saturday with my wife anyway and I have tickets for next thursday as well, so not missing too much.

zoraster · Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:06 pm

MS or discord? either would be fun

zoraster · Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:54 pm

yeah. that was awesome. Ravolta and Yang were awesome.

That lee sin Q onto Nami so that he could get into position on deft was gorgeous.

zoraster · Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:23 am

btw if you're watching the games live, join the LoL Worlds MS chat room!

zoraster · Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:07 am

something pointed out on reddit that I think is amazing:

At the start of the game, Xmithie started bot side at blue without the help of the bot lane. Darshan INTENTIONNALY went to crugs and took couple of auto attacks, making G2 think xmithie started top.

zoraster · Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:12 am

zoraster · Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:04 pm

I have never seen anyone as excited about anything as the girl next to me is about Uzi

zoraster · Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:00 pm

It was certainly fun to watch here.

zoraster · Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:08 pm

I don't chant anything but the crowd surprisingly did.

zoraster · Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:12 pm

For real though, drama is way better than some idea of quality.

zoraster · Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:11 am

Uh so I think hito at least is going to games in the future. A few comments:

1. The Riftwalk is worth a stroll, but not worth showing up early to. The Baron is pretty cool though:

2. At least at the SF location the screen is REALLY high. That's a very good thing so that everyone can see, you don't have to worry about jackasses with signs blocking your view, etc. But as a result, after 6 games, the neck grows weary from the floor. I think the first row of the balcony center stage was easily the best seat in the house unless you desperately want to feel like you're close to the players themselves (but actually from the angle on the floor, the closer you are, the harder it is to see them when they're playing) or if you want to get on camera.

3. Overall, the production value is tremendous. The whole room goes purple when the baron is taken, there are some cool graphics for the drakes, etc.

4. The TSM game felt weirdly subdued compared to the C9 game. I know there were a lot more TSM fans there from outfits, though C9 was well represented, but perhaps because of the exhausting C9 game or maybe because it was pretty late or maybe because TSM was supposed to win easily but wasn't, the energy I expected from the TSM game simply was absent.

It was definitely worth my time and money, and we had a lot of fun. That said, one day was good for me. I have tickets for Thursday, but right now I'm pretty sure I won't be going. If I were closer, I'd definitely be happy going again though.

zoraster · Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:25 pm

that seems a bit premature from that premise, but I imagine they probably have become the favorites.

zoraster · Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:35 pm

this is why groups is so much more fun. by playoff time the best teams tend to win their series.

zoraster · Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:46 pm

I swear if c9 picks lee again...

zoraster · Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:50 pm

That is not an accurate description of "never any doubt"

zoraster · Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:37 am

yeah except he got the pre-tournament consensus wrong too.

zoraster · Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:58 am

Monte predicted a perfect worlds run for SKT?

Going into it, SKT was generally seen as weaker than Rox by a fair margin. They were likely considered number 2 in strength, but there's a big difference between that and thinking the "only question is whether SKT could make the perfect run."

I'd try to find Monte's predictions, but mostly what I come across is a 6 and a half hour summoning insight episode, which I'm definitely not going to watch.

zoraster · Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:21 am

okay i lied. i watched a little of it and monte at 12:50 says "Rox tigers are my favorites for the tournament." (while he's saying that G2 will surprise people)

zoraster · Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:33 am

http://www.roadtolarissa.com/worlds-group/ this is the best visual representation of possibilities i've seen

zoraster · Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:08 pm

me, if it means CLG can't make it through.

zoraster · Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:14 pm

It was weird. I think it might have been okay if they had picked a different mid laner and put karma bot.

zoraster · Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:01 pm

yeah although if albus beats g2 and clg beats rox it'll probably be a tie break between all three teams

zoraster · Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:30 pm

amazing. that was awesome. to be fair, they should have shut it down 35 minutes before.

zoraster · Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:32 pm

miracle was just insane this game. and it went totally unmentioned.

zoraster · Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:36 pm

you bet thousands? yikes

zoraster · Thu Oct 06, 2016 6:13 pm

yeah. or wait until you're caught up to tell us your thoughts at the moment that are stale for us.

zoraster · Fri Oct 07, 2016 11:14 am

What I mean is if you want to live blog it or whatever, write it down and then post it when you're caught up. That way we get to get your reactions in "real time" but we also don't have to go through this temporally weird thing where we're talking about something going on at THIS moment, but now we're kind of talking about what you were talking about from two hours ago with the knowledge we know more than you.

I also don't mind if you're posting as you watch and there aren't games currently going on. It's just weird when we're discussing things happening in real time.

zoraster · Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:14 pm

Just to catch the thread up with the lol worlds chat room: dash's tie knot is out of control.

zoraster · Sat Oct 08, 2016 9:03 am

Autocorrect gave you... Eufa?

zoraster · Sun Oct 09, 2016 3:12 am

I don't know. I think the gap's closed some. Obviously disappointing performance by western teams, but I don't get the sense that any team in this tournament is as dominant as Samsung White (or blue for that matter) in Season 4, SKT in Season 3 or 6. It may well turn out they are. Rox could pull it together, SKT could be the real deal (I think we'll know more after today), but in terms of how beatable (even in a best of 5 series) the Korean teams look, I don't think there's been a year like this in a while in terms of the gap in potential. Western teams have put up disappointing performances, but I haven't seen them as super outclassed, except C9 vs. SKT. Even G2, who performed extraordinarily poorly for their expectations showed a lot of life in individual games.

zoraster · Sun Oct 09, 2016 3:59 am

Well, you're free to use that standard if you want.

I suspect you're mostly just disappointed by TSM's performance. Which was sad and disappointing.

zoraster · Sun Oct 09, 2016 4:12 pm

this is about the best draw i can imagine for theoretically close matches throughout.

and the worst draw for a close finals.

zoraster · Mon Oct 10, 2016 2:56 am

Apparently Likkrit has chicken pox? What a weird thing to get.

zoraster · Mon Oct 10, 2016 5:21 am

Yeah. I think it's going to be a 3-0 or 3-1 in H2K's favor. I know they performed well in groups and all, and it's not like they fluked their way into a spot, but I don't think they're going to challenge H2K over a best of 5 series.

zoraster · Mon Oct 10, 2016 5:29 am

For whom?

zoraster · Mon Oct 10, 2016 5:31 am

The only non-meta champion really played by ANX were by Likkrit: Brand and then because he had three champs banned against him Taric. I suppose Shen top is now kinda out of the meta. But other than that, they played super standard stuff.

Ban Brand and I don't think H2K has any trouble with ANX's champion pool.

zoraster · Mon Oct 10, 2016 7:17 am

he's saying ANX played anivia. Which is true.

zoraster · Wed Oct 12, 2016 2:46 am

In many ways, the H2K/ANX game is a win-win. Other than having to see Forgiven win, I'd like to see H2K advance, and ANX is obviously a crowd favorite.

zoraster · Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:36 am

I think sandbox would be neutral to gap closing in terms of interregionality.

zoraster · Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:49 am

I think that despite having better infrastructure in Korea, the gap in infrastructure is way, way, way lower than it was in previous seasons (or in SC2 for that matter). Many teams, particularly those that regularly qualify for worlds in EU and NA, have team infrastructure that would allow them to figure out ways to take advantage of a sandbox mode.

It's also a disrupting force in the game. No one's had this ability before, someone will figure out how to take advantage of it best. It's possible that the Koreans would figure out how to best utilize it, but I don't think that's a given. And disruption often favors those not in control.

zoraster · Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:27 am

CLG finished second at MSI.

Phreak's play by play is pretty bad. I think only Rivington's is worse, but Riv lets his color commentators do a lot more work so the overall cast is better.

zoraster · Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:52 am

I think Riv is fine because, as I said, he just leans more on his other casters. Phreak, on the other hand, involves himself in weird battles with his other casters.

zoraster · Mon Oct 17, 2016 4:26 am

Yeah, it's not new either. I have some signed stuff from Pele from when my great grandmother met him on a plane during his time in the North American Soccer League.

The MLS is pretty wise to have a salary cap, I think.

One other thing to consider is that a big problem with professional league at the moment is player longevity. Because it's not a physical sport, there's a large drive to practice 14 hours a day. That's fairly effective on a short term basis, but over time it makes participating at the top level difficult. My understanding is that Korea is particularly bad in this regard. Coming to North America where they're required to play relatively less can be attractive from a potential burnout standpoint, with the knowledge that even if you "only" play and practice 10 hours a day, 6 days a week you're going to be an effective player within the league.

Think about it: the dream for most people working is more money earned in less time.

zoraster · Mon Oct 17, 2016 7:08 am

In post 7077, BROseidon wrote:
In post 7075, mykonian wrote:it's a retirement home for top players atm, who rake in some more money after a succesful carreer. Really don't think a salary cap is the issue, exposure and competition is.
How's the view from like 3 years ago?

Hard to call the MLS a retirement home when you have Altidore, Bradley, and Giovinco all
on the same team
, among other arguments that this is becoming less true.

I think Giovinco is the only one there that helps prove your point. Altidore and Bradley have a geographic reason to be there.

zoraster · Mon Oct 17, 2016 8:48 am

Well, IMT is new this year so at least for that one it answers your question.

zoraster · Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:27 pm

In post 7111, Espeonage wrote:Is riftwalk (or whatever it's called) going to be worth it?

It's worth doing. It's not worth showing up early for on its own. We walked through it in about 2-3 minutes but you could probably do it in 10 if you walked around slowly. At least for the SF group stages it was not a problem to get in to do.

zoraster · Fri Oct 21, 2016 10:52 am

In SF even though TSM was playing that day there weren't that many TSM chants.

zoraster · Fri Oct 21, 2016 10:58 am

Well, they're in new york now and new york fans are pretty bad universally. Though at least they're not in Philadelphia.

zoraster · Fri Oct 21, 2016 12:43 pm

amazing

zoraster · Fri Oct 21, 2016 4:26 pm

In post 7131, SleepyKrew wrote:can tomorrow live up to today
can next week live up to today

No. Because frankly there hasn't been a semis or finals that's been this good in my memory.

zoraster · Sat Oct 22, 2016 3:42 am

So I win pick em if SSG lose either today or in the finals. Only Sleepy Krew can catch me and thats' only if SSG win it all.

zoraster · Sat Oct 22, 2016 7:03 am

http://pickem.lolesports.com/share/seri ... ist/229924

RANK PLAYER NAME POINTS
1 YOU 68
2 Carrot Spirit 59
3 mykonian 53
3 vVv Voided 53
5 randomidget 52
6 theelkspeaks 51
7 flaminghito 50
8 iammtd 49
9 BROtoro 34
10 EpsilonAlpha 33
11 Dramonic 32
12 pickemgenius 29
13 AudioTsunami 23
14 Glork 18

zoraster · Sat Oct 22, 2016 7:04 am

i'm also tied with the top celebrities. Huzzah

zoraster · Sat Oct 22, 2016 2:20 pm

1v1 me bro

zoraster · Mon Oct 24, 2016 6:56 am

also too many letters.

zoraster · Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:59 am

does anyone know if there's a vod for their tryout thing?

zoraster · Sun Oct 30, 2016 3:31 am

The weird thing is the only game in the tournament I didn't watch live was the finals.

Also all hail Zoraster, the new pickem king!

zoraster · Sun Oct 30, 2016 4:06 am

Why? It seemed close.

zoraster · Sun Oct 30, 2016 4:11 am

in what way?

zoraster · Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:42 am

only just noticed doublelift says he won't be back for spring split.

zoraster · Fri Nov 04, 2016 3:35 am

Whatever the circumstances, H2K getting to the semis was a success for them.

zoraster · Fri Nov 04, 2016 3:53 am

I mean, there's no merit in discussing anything with sports or esports, but we do anyway.

H2K got first in their group. By virtue of that they were placed with the easiest Quarters team. Sure, they could have had a harder road if they had to face RNG or C9, but they earned the chance to avoid those teams and there's no certainty they wouldn't have beat either of those teams too (I'd put odds on beating C9 losing to RNG, but nevermind). They didn't just beat ANX either. They trounced them. And you can only beat the teams you play.

They were beaten badly by a team that took SKT to 5 games. It happens. But for H2K themselves, it was a pretty startling success.

zoraster · Thu Nov 17, 2016 6:43 am

that was so boring

zoraster · Thu Nov 17, 2016 7:10 am

sometimes it's good to be really bored. I watched all of The Crown, after all.

zoraster · Thu Nov 17, 2016 12:24 pm

that's a weird synergy.

zoraster · Sun Nov 20, 2016 3:44 pm

my wife said "I'll allow it."

zoraster · Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:39 am

It's not bad. It's just kinda dull. Sometimes in a good way.

zoraster · Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:21 am

how is xpeke the midlaner for the EU all star team? I understand All Stars is mostly a joke, but surely any of the actual midlaners should play.

zoraster · Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:36 am

My argument is xpeke shouldn't be at any position, surely.

zoraster · Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:18 am

I kinda love the new EU LCS format.

zoraster · Fri May 12, 2017 2:45 am

Let's sanity check this.

0. They haven't even finished one round of a round robin. Best of 1s are a pretty terrible way to evaluate teams in LoL.
1. TSM has beaten WE, the top team from China
2. TSM has shown they can beat GAM in a best of 5. While "beat the Wildcard team" doesn't sound great, GAM has shown they are pretty darn tough competition.
3. They were in a position to beat FW.
4. They played SKT pretty tough at first but then were outclassed, which is as good as anyone can say.
5. They haven't played G2 yet.
6. Let's remember that these teams represent the top teams from each region. Although you might say that the two additional Korean teams at Worlds are likely to be better than the non-SKT teams at MSI, these are still likely to be in the top echelon.

Clearly TSM is outclassed by SKT, but then again clearly so is everyone else at the tournament. Getting an early lead is as good as anyone has done. TSM has looked flat, but they haven't really looked out-classed by the other teams they've played. I think it's probably more likely than not to not make the group stages of MSI given their 1-3 start. But if your complaint is that NA teams are just there to be participants, I think that probably comes from a place of either deep pessimism or unreasonable expectations -- as long as you accept nobody but a Korean team is likely to win MSI or Worlds this year.

Remember that Europe was in a similar position as TSM this year, lost a 1st seed at Worlds and had a team make it to the semis (although facing Albus Nox made that easier).

PS. For what it's worth, I think that C9 probably would have had the higher ceiling at this tournament than TSM. Not that they necessarily would have done better or "deserve" to be at MSI more than TSM. But TSM has to work around their bot lane being a weak point, which removes dimensions to their play. Getting DL back will be helpful to them even though I think some of the WT criticism has been overly harsh.

zoraster · Fri May 12, 2017 7:34 am

Tahm Kench is a good pairing for Wild Turtle.

zoraster · Fri May 12, 2017 8:14 am

that was amazing and sloppy and amazing.

zoraster · Fri May 12, 2017 10:46 am

uh i don't think it's up anymore, but feel free to start one

zoraster · Fri May 12, 2017 4:56 pm

i mean TSM, GAM and FW all have the same record...

zoraster · Sat May 13, 2017 2:53 am

Anyway, there's a lot of time left. Other than SKT, who I think has locked in their spot, everyone else is either 3-3 or 2-4. A bad Sat/Sun from a 3-3 team or a good day from a 2-4 team easily could have G2 or WE going out.

Everyone has played one "double" game so far (i.e. the return game). Those were:

WE vs. TSM (1-1)
GAM vs. SKT (0-2)
G2 vs. FW (2-0)

So arguably GAM has the easiest schedule left as they play every team EXCEPT SKT again. G2 is in a good spot as their only double game they aced meaning they win a head-to-head with Flash Wolves. WE and TSM will have to play again if they tie.

Right now it's kind of awesome actually. Every game except SKT's is meaningful to both teams. Arguably the 2-4 teams playing is the most meaningful, but that's only slightly the case.

Saturday Games

WE vs. G2
TSM vs. GAM
FW vs. SKT
G2 vs. GAM
TSM vs. SKT
FW vs. WE

Sunday Games

SKT vs. G2
TSM vs. FW
WE vs. GAM
TSM vs. G2
FW vs. GAM
SKT vs. WE

After today, before panicking remember that TSM (along with GAM and FW) will have played SKT twice but G2 and WE won't have yet.

zoraster · Sat May 13, 2017 9:23 am

Yes. DL and WT. I have a hard time believing that'll last into the playoffs though. I imagine part of the thought is DL won't have integrated well until a bit in the season plus it doesn't feel fair to turtle

zoraster · Sat May 13, 2017 9:28 am

It's not even into the knockouts.

zoraster · Sat May 13, 2017 10:14 am

The latter

zoraster · Sun May 14, 2017 3:48 am

Stolen from Reddit:

SKT

:
Best case scenario - If SKT wins out, they'll place first in groups.
Worst case scenario - SKT loses both games and ends in a first place tie with WE. The two will then play to determine who gets the first place seed.
Bottom line - SKT is good to go. As long as they beat WE, they’ll secure first place.

WE

:
Best case scenario - If WE wins both games, and SKT loses both games, they'll be in tie for first place.
Worst case scenario - If WE loses both games, they'll have the same record as either G2, TSM, FW, or GAM. The only team they'll lose the head-to-head with is GAM, and they would play TSM to determine the tiebreaker. Because of their current standings, they've secured a playoff spot, but they could end up as the fourth seed if the team implodes.
Bottom line - WE is in. They just need to beat GAM to get second place.

G2

:
Best case scenario - If G2 wins out, they'll secure a spot in the top 4. Since they lose the head-to-head with WE, the best they can expect is a third place finish.
Worst case scenario - If G2 loses both games, they won't qualify for the playoffs.
Bottom line - G2 needs to avoid losing to TSM, because if they do, they’re definitely out. Even if they beat SKT, it won’t matter if they can’t succeed against their North American counterparts.

TSM

:
Best case scenario - If TSM wins both games, they'll secure their spot in the playoffs. If WE loses out, TSM could win the tiebreaker to be the second seed.
Worst case scenario - If TSM loses both games, they don't make it to playoffs.
Bottom line - TSM either has to beat FW and then win a tiebreaker against G2, or beat G2 outright. Losing both games is the only way they’ll definitely be disqualified.

FW

:
Best case scenario - If they win out, then FW will advance. They lose the tiebreaker to WE, so the best they can hope for is a third seed.
Worst case scenario - If FW loses both games, they do not qualify for playoffs.
Bottom line - If FW wins at least one game their chances for survival are high. They’re already a game up on TSM and GAM, so that bodes well for them entering into tomorrow. They’re only in trouble if they end up in a tie with G2, who will take the head-to-head matchup.

GAM

:
Best case scenario - If GAM wins both of their games, they'll qualify for playoffs. That would mean they would win the head-to-head against WE, so they could finish as high as second place.
Worst case scenario - If GAM loses both games, they're out of the tournament.
Bottom line - GAM needs to beat FW in order to give themselves the best chance of advancing. This would give them a tied record with every team (except SKT), so they would have a second chance to redeem themselves and make it to the playoff stage.

zoraster · Sun May 14, 2017 3:53 am

Essentially, every team can win both their games and get to semis. SKT and WE have qualified, but WE could theoretically get 4th place and have to face SKT first.

G2 vs. TSM, 4th game of the day, is hugely consequential. Essentially, the team that wins gets to the semis. It's possible that both G2 and TSM could get in if G2 beats TSM and TSM beats FW (twice, once for a tiebreaker).

As is normal, there are a number of tiebreaker situations. Tiebreaker for 3rd seed is pretty important too as that avoids playing SKT until the finals.

zoraster · Sun May 14, 2017 6:58 am

zoraster · Sun May 14, 2017 12:06 pm

No. It means that they likely play a tiebreaker against flashwolves assuming fw closes this out

It does mean they'll get skt in the finals if they win but at least they preserve NAs first seed at worlds

zoraster · Sun May 14, 2017 12:11 pm

With that the "fucking joke of a team" will be the third seed and face WE for a chance to make semis.

zoraster · Sun May 14, 2017 12:53 pm

Midlane Lucian working out pretty well against faker

zoraster · Mon May 15, 2017 2:49 am

"Acceptable level"? G2 is the third seed. I put them as a fairly heavy underdog against WE, but it's not unthinkable that they take the series as WE has some pretty glaring weaknesses too. G2's choice of draft is pretty one-dimensional and it leaves them with a fairly ugly majority of the game, but when you're in a tournament like this and you're playing 2 games a day for 5 days, eventually you want to stick with the thing that gets to victories.

TSM's result was disappointing for them and as I said before they looked pretty flat at the tournament. But it's not like they didn't compete. They beat every team at the tournament other than SKT.

I don't know. This is like listening to sports talk radio in every city in the world.

zoraster · Tue May 16, 2017 3:18 am

In post 7261, Voidedmafia wrote:Zor, they may have been competitive, but just being competitive doesn't get you a berth to the knockout stage, does it?

It does. Just not all the time. CLG made Top-2 last year. MSI is such a short tournament that has a healthy dose of randomness involved. If you're just competitive, sometimes you'll fail to make it out of groups and other times you'll find yourself with the right form at the right time and lose to SKT in the finals.

Hell, SKT last year was merely "competitive" at MSI last year. They were the number 4 seed coming out of groups.

zoraster · Tue May 16, 2017 9:11 am

no. RNG was the chinese team and lost to SKT in the semis after having the best record (the same as SKT's, 8-2) in the group stage. CLG beat Flashwolves in their semi.

zoraster · Tue May 16, 2017 9:14 am

yeah. EDG beat SKT in 2015's finals, 3-2. Fnatic lost to SKT 3-2 as well.

zoraster · Tue May 16, 2017 2:37 pm

Being competitive means being able to win some significant portion of games against the competition. Sometimes that'll have you advance to the finals. Sometimes that'll have you go out in the group stages.

Look, if to enjoy things you have to have TSM always be one of the top two teams in a tournament, then you probably should stop watching now. If you want there to be a chance that TSM has a magical tournament where they make it to the semi finals or even finals, I think that's still within the realm of possibility. I don't think that's a LARGE possibility with the current team composition, but it's not impossible.

Tournament form is a thing. Teams react to patch changes differently. CLG's MSI and spring split in 2016 was in no small part because they were just better than the international competition at lane swaps.

So what do you do as a team? You put yourself in the best position to potentially have a good run.

And that's why being competitive matters. Because even where TSM was obviously not in good form for the tournament they still were in a position to win. If they improve things and other factors go their way, sure they could do better. I think C9's team has the higher ceiling in international play, but I don't see a reason TSM COULDN'T do well if everything fell their way.

---
For the record, I'm not a TSM fan except on the world stage.

zoraster · Sat May 20, 2017 8:41 am

A good start for the joke of a team in the semis.

zoraster · Sat May 20, 2017 11:18 am

I'm not blind to that whatsoever -- I called them underdogs in this match, after all. But in fact, that's pretty much central to my point.

Which is that it's an overreaction going straight to OMG THE TEAM NEEDS TO START FIRING PEOPLE NOW. THEY'RE A FUCKING JOKE. Even last week they did well enough to not face SKT in the semis, which led to them facing WE, which led to them being in a position to make it to the finals.

As a team, sometimes you don't play well. If you don't have some time off (as in the 10 games in 5 days), the best you can do sometimes is retreat back to what you can find that works, try to grind out some wins, and hope you can come out crisper the following week.

And this isn't like... an unusual thing, right? In Worlds in particular, the group stages have been broken into two weeks the past few tournaments. In each of worlds, you've had teams underperform in week 1 only to do really well in week 2 (or vice versa, remember C9 going undefeated in 2015 in week 1 only to lose all their games in week 2?)

Mostly I guess I'd boil things down to: try not to overreact or desire for vast, emotional, and poorly considered overcorrections just because it helps you overcome feelings that the teams you support do poorly and you're a glass half-empty kind of guy.

zoraster · Sat May 20, 2017 11:23 am

I dunno. I feel like that'd be a lot better supported.

zoraster · Sat May 20, 2017 3:25 pm

I don't know. I feel like they have as many or more prospects than normal sports.

zoraster · Sat May 20, 2017 5:26 pm

Comtractz this season

zoraster · Sun May 21, 2017 4:15 am

In post 7286, KaleiÐoscøpe wrote:
In post 7277, zoraster wrote:I'm not blind to that whatsoever -- I called them underdogs in this match, after all. But in fact, that's pretty much central to my point.

Which is that it's an overreaction going straight to OMG THE TEAM NEEDS TO START FIRING PEOPLE NOW. THEY'RE A FUCKING JOKE. Even last week they did well enough to not face SKT in the semis, which led to them facing WE, which led to them being in a position to make it to the finals.

As a team, sometimes you don't play well. If you don't have some time off (as in the 10 games in 5 days), the best you can do sometimes is retreat back to what you can find that works, try to grind out some wins, and hope you can come out crisper the following week.

And this isn't like... an unusual thing, right? In Worlds in particular, the group stages have been broken into two weeks the past few tournaments. In each of worlds, you've had teams underperform in week 1 only to do really well in week 2 (or vice versa, remember C9 going undefeated in 2015 in week 1 only to lose all their games in week 2?)

Mostly I guess I'd boil things down to: try not to overreact or desire for vast, emotional, and poorly considered overcorrections just because it helps you overcome feelings that the teams you support do poorly and you're a glass half-empty kind of guy.
Fair enough, but even if a team wins doesn't mean they played well. Last week, G2 was one dimensional and the jungler was straight up making them lose games. Yesterday, they actually had an early game where they made stuff work. They were a fucking joke last week. Everything they had showed during the spring split was left at home. I still think if they hadn't come out of groups they deserved it, even though they did beat WE yesterday. We all win games where we think in retrospect, we shouldn't have. It's when both teams make mistakes. That didn't happen yesterday though, they were simply better yesterday.

So do I think I overreacted? No. They deserved the shit they got last week and just because they got out of groups and TSM didn't doesn't make them better then TSM by any means.

Any team that doesn't win enough to get out of groups deserves it. If they had lost to TSM, which was perfectly plausible, in their last game, it wouldn't have been an outrage. G2 didn't look great last week, but that's a far cry from needing to totally trash their current lineup.

It's kind of like people think all tournaments to be valid need to achieve some platonic ideal of what each individual team is. But in reality, what's great about tournaments is that the same team can perform differently from day to day. If WE and G2 played next week, it's not unthinkable that it'd be 3-1 the other way.

I guess I just reject "fucking joke" language because it's counterproductive. Performing poorly is something a team needs to address, clearly, but that type of abusive language is both wrongheaded and leads you to look absolutely foolish. It's like fans who shout abuse from the stands to their own players for not playing well in a soccer match, baseball game or whatever.

How a team performs and how good a team is are interrelated but not the same thing. How good a team is indicates how likely a team is to perform well. We have few enough high level international tournaments that are spaced far enough apart that there is this tendency to find major trends that aren't really borne out.

zoraster · Sun May 21, 2017 11:04 am

G2 lost but looked pretty good doing it.

zoraster · Mon May 22, 2017 3:13 am

Yeah, I hope they don't have a letdown that sometimes comes after a good performance like that. I suspect CLG's fall from 2nd at MSI had more to do with Riot's elimination of the lane swap meta, but it's not uncommon.

TSM's convincing first place IEM Katowice finish in 2015 (and first place LCS) was followed by 5th at MSI and 5th in the regular season of Summer Split (though they finished second in playoffs) and tied for last place at Worlds.

That said, I think it's very promising for G2 so long as it's motivating.

zoraster · Sat May 27, 2017 3:23 am

Fantasy LCS league: http://fantasy.lolesports.com/share/joi ... lyNdz2uQ9j

Not going to do a whole big thing this time. First come, first serve.

zoraster · Tue May 30, 2017 7:04 am

looking for two more!

Thinking draft at 8pm EDT tomorrow (wednesday)

zoraster · Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:57 am

http://www.lolesports.com/en_US/article ... the-na-lcs

NA LCS Changes

People assumed it was happening, but now it's confirmed: relegation is out. All teams have to apply to be part of the LCS on a permanent basis now.

Financial incentives to do better in the league to replace some of the lower level competitiveness.... seems like basically nothing unless those amounts are truly staggering. Also can (though looks like maybe not FORCED) to lose a spot if a team places 9th or 10th in 5 out of 8 splits (that's 4 years!)

Revenue sharing both from Riot to Teams and Teams to Riot (that will be distributed across all teams).

Minimum Salary for players will now be $75k.

It looks like players will receive, in total 35%, of league revenue (with a minimum represented by their guaranteed salaries) and teams will receive 32.5%, with half distributed equally and half based on league finish and viewer engagement.

League Revenue will now count media rights and distribution and team-branded digital products.

But you'll notice that nowhere in there does it mention skin sales for non-team branded products, which is where Riot knows it makes the money. Still, fair enough.

zoraster · Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:05 am

Not that it got huge viewership numbers, but the Championship Series is now basically not worth watching. It'll be full of academy teams. I'm not sure what incentive they'll provide for teams to use it.

zoraster · Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:37 am

As a side note, Immortals -- who had to have known this was coming -- has played this super smart. While other teams have pushed to win, Immortals has been super willing to take losses of major players and other opportunities in order to cultivate the image of a responsible ownership team that partners well with players.

zoraster · Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:14 am

yeah. i mean, most organizations have been aware for roughly a year that Riot was moving toward this. I think all CS teams and all LCS teams will make a pitch based on how they've structured their current teams and their partnership with Riot. There's a 10 million dollar buy-in (with 5 of that deferred), but I don't think it'll be a challenge for the teams Riot picks to find financing for that.

I don't think it'll help college teams all that much, honestly.

zoraster · Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:24 am

If I'm a non-name brand team LCS team (so basically not C9, TSM or CLG)/CS team and I'm not already known as a good organization (e.g. Immortals), I think I'm probably looking to major sports teams and VCs to partner with to go forward.

zoraster · Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:24 am

haha crazy. those guys make so much streaming it's hard to imagine they'll try very hard scrimming.

zoraster · Fri Jun 02, 2017 7:13 am

the only weird thing is that echo fox apparently is only scrimming its sister team now. I think that includes a team made of their subs, but i can't imagine these streamers taking more than a little bit of time grinding a scrim situation.

zoraster · Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:25 am

i'm not really sure how it helps with that, honestly.

zoraster · Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:33 pm

I believe I'll need to get 93.72 or more points than PEG next week to win (as well as have him lose). It's not unthinkable, but difficult.

zoraster · Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:08 am

yes, congratulations peg.

zoraster · Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:54 am

fantasy

zoraster · Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:55 am

is there a reason that the NA LCS is having a promotion tournament?

zoraster · Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:04 am

yeah. i guess i just don't feel that excited about watching teams compete for their owner's windfall.

zoraster · Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:15 am

ah.

It's going to be super interesting to see who gets a franchise. We should have betting odds.

zoraster · Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:21 am

If the NALCS were the only league riot was responsible for, the results almost certainly would be different. A league would almost certainly want to take Fnatic. Fnatic has a super strong brand, is well established, and would be an asset to the league. But I cannot see Riot allowing one of the tentpole members of the EU LCS being allowed to join NA. I think Fnatic has to know that, but I suspect they and G2 may have applied to make a point more than anything else.

zoraster · Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:18 am

i think the EU LCS is in some trouble if they don't find a new format.

zoraster · Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:21 am

oh! right. yeah that's what i meant. Fnatic, G2, Misfits and Splyce all applied to join the NA LCS.

zoraster · Sat Aug 19, 2017 4:55 am

EU LCS playoffs starts with a tristana pentakill. Pretty exciting turn around after a baron contest.

zoraster · Sun Aug 20, 2017 2:27 pm

this CLG vs. NV match is fun.

zoraster · Sun Aug 20, 2017 2:50 pm

they'll probably try but CLG should be able to have time to plan to be ready for it. You can see in game 5 they had a plan (that sorta didn't work but almost did).

zoraster · Mon Aug 21, 2017 8:32 am

In post 7359, SensFan wrote:DIG probably got screwed out of a Worlds spot (and of the #2 seed especially) by the way the seeding and results happened yesterday. Now IMT gets the second spot at Worlds for NA, and DIG/C9 should be the gauntlet final.

Well, I wouldn't count CLG out against IMT next match. They didn't look great, but it's not foretold. If CLG wins, IMT doesn't get in via points. And if DIG wins the playoffs IMT doesn't get the #2 spot either.

zoraster · Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:53 pm

In post 7362, SensFan wrote:
In post 7361, zoraster wrote:
In post 7359, SensFan wrote:DIG probably got screwed out of a Worlds spot (and of the #2 seed especially) by the way the seeding and results happened yesterday. Now IMT gets the second spot at Worlds for NA, and DIG/C9 should be the gauntlet final.

Well, I wouldn't count CLG out against IMT next match. They didn't look great, but it's not foretold. If CLG wins, IMT doesn't get in via points. And if DIG wins the playoffs IMT doesn't get the #2 spot either.
Can you see a scenario other than TSM/IMT finals at this point?

CLG look awful with Omar in the jungle, and while DIG are probably the second-best team in NA, I can't see them possibly beating this TSM roster coming off a bye and with a chip on their shoulder from the regular season.

If I were offered even odds, that's certainly the final I'd bet on, but upsets happen with regularity. I don't put any stock in "chips" on shoulders in a video game. And I'm not sure I see byes as that valuable for the sake of winning. It's not like football where physically resting is immensely helpful. The bye is super valuable in that you don't have a chance to lose, obviously. I'd put CLG at 35% and DIG at 30%.

zoraster · Sun Aug 27, 2017 6:50 am

G2 and MSF qualify for worlds now. They play a finals against each other next week and it's basically to get the first seed for world's placement. Which is important.

But both teams will feel very good avoiding the gauntlet because the gauntlet SUCKS. You not only have to win that but you ALSO have to go into the play-in stage for Worlds. The gauntlet will be Splyce vs. UoL. Winner plays H2K. Winner plays Fnatic. Because that's settled, 3rd place match isn't just unimportant... you actively want to avoid showing the other team any of your strategies since H2K vs. Fnatic has a high likelihood of being played. I can imagine that game is going to be a circus.

The gauntlet is going to be fun. Which of the three promising teams will figure out their problems in two weeks? Or will none do that and Splyce can swoop in and use their admirable mediocrity to get to worlds again?

TSM's match today is pointless for them other than the desire to win the split (which I'm sure they very much want to do). Being #1 seed or #2 seed from North America matters not at all because both will be placed into Pool 2 due to TSM's poor finish at MSI.

zoraster · Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:22 am

Ah you're right. Got them swapped

zoraster · Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:59 am

Immortals into Worlds as well!

zoraster · Sun Aug 27, 2017 12:11 pm

Gauntlet: So it looks like first match will be Flyquest vs. the loser of the 3rd place match, second match will be against the winner of the 3rd place match, and third match will be against C9.

zoraster · Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:57 pm

In post 7380, SensFan wrote:As I expected, both NA matches will have virtually nothing on the line next week. TSM and IMT are playing for pride alone, while CLG and DIG are playing a meaningless series about one week before they probably play a match with extreme Worlds implications.

It means more than the eu one. But then again it just means having to play fly quest if you lose.

zoraster · Sun Aug 27, 2017 4:04 pm

Yeah sorry I meant the third place match

zoraster · Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:25 pm

the problem kind of is that they may not be that scared of flyquest, but if they do have to play flyquest they'll probably need to show SOMETHING since it's do or die. So you kind of might as well go for the win and avoid having to play the third match in the gauntlet. Plus it'd be one thing if the gauntlet were just one match against that team, but you'll DEFINITELY have to show your cards against Dig (if you're CLG) or CLG (if you're Dig), which is going to tip off C9 anyway. And despite being sort of listless, I expect C9 to be a major challenge for either of those two teams.

Is the gauntlet played on 7.16 too? Not that a lot changed for 7.17.

zoraster · Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:03 pm

that's true. And they didn't even seem to fool the other team. They had Alistar banned from them. I guess it's possible they thought it was Top or Mid Lulu, but still.

zoraster · Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:26 pm

In post 7392, Glork wrote:TSM and IMT are still playing for prize money.

EDIT: As are all 3rd/4th place teams, I think.

Yeah they are but while it's not nothing, I doubt anyone cares very much about it compared to whatever their chances for worlds. TSM/Immortals and G2/MSF will very much want to win because winning a split is awesome (plus G2/MSF is for the pool 1 seed), but 3rd and 4th are likely thinking largely about their gauntlet run.

The difference is literally $10k between 3rd and 4th. So even if the players get to keep it all (and I'm not sure they do), that's 2k a person. It's not nothing, but it's also pretty unimportant compared to the chance of going to worlds. Even if all you cared about was money, the bottom 4 teams at worlds last year collected $63,375 a team. This year there are more teams and winning the gaunlet means you're in the play-ins but I still imagine the money for getting 4th and winning the gauntlet will far outstrip getting 3rd and losing the gauntlet.

EDIT: 1st vs. 2nd is a bigger prize difference at 50k so ~10k a person. I think the 1st place match will be competitive and people will care because (a) pride (b) money (c) there's no reason NOT to do so. Yeah, you give a bit away for worlds, but that's so far away (on a different patch, after a lot of cross regional pollination, etc.) that it's not worth worrying about.

zoraster · Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:32 am

okay i'm watching the draw show... it was NOT clear from their explanation that all the teams for play-ins would be seeded. It appears that they're assuring NA, LPL, etc. aren't in the same group as each other.

zoraster · Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:42 am

I read the article I think? I must have missed the part about seeding for play-in.

zoraster · Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:01 am

NA and EU ended up with very favorable draws... other than poor Number 1 seed G2, but even that isn't undoable by any means. That said, keep in mind that these groups (barring upset) likely end up with one of WE, Fnatic and C9. Definitely could be different though if someone comes out cold in the Best of 1 single round robin play-in and it ends up with, for example, Fnatic and WE playing off or whatever. But still, the groups aren't finished off yet and the play-in teams that finish off a group makes a big difference.

Man I love World's time of year. And as I mentioned before I love the new play-in system. It provides high stakes games for lower teams with every chance of an upset.

--

One potentially big change about this is that unlike in previous years where sometimes NA did well early because they figured out a shift in meta first (only to fade later), the meta is going to start to get established before group stage even starts. That's a big deal.

zoraster · Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:52 am

to be fair, this is definitely the better way to do it.

zoraster · Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:00 am

I'm willing to bet that more Pool 1 teams make the group stages than any 4 teams you want to choose.

That's not to say that every Pool 1 team makes it out -- odds are at least one doesn't (particularly HKA). Gambit has a nice amount of world's experience and could pose a challenge to whoever gets them in the Bo5 match. The others are more or less unknown in terms of how they'll react at an international level of competition with a Best of 5.

I'm not talking C9 and Fnatic up as potential Worlds contenders or anything, but I think you underestimate both teams against wild card level teams.

zoraster · Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:13 am

well, if the implication is that Gambit will beat every team but WE, they should have been okay either way. Because they would have finished number 1 seed in their group and WE would have also been seed 1. But obviously things are messy, particularly in best of 1s. I also have my doubts at how strong Gambit really comes out.

Regardless, the way it's set up now the group portion of play-ins are really designed more to eliminate than to seed. With only 4 games per team played, there's every possibility that WE ends up 2nd in their group, etc. You might end up with a tough Bo5 match no matter what you do.

zoraster · Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:24 am

so is that a bet?

If more of WE, C9, Fnatic, HKA get through I win
If more of Rampage, Fenerbache, Gambit and ? get through you win?

zoraster · Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:29 am

Chance that CLG would have qualified and not IMT if they didn't trade Xmithie for Dardoch? Like... 80%? There was a brief period where it seemed like it might work out well for both teams but time sure made that trade look silly. Of course, trading for Dardoch is even dumber than trading for FORGIVEN

zoraster · Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:01 pm

I'm not so sure. I think if they were convinced keeping Dardoch would lead to a spot, they would have kept him. I don't think you take on Dardoch unless you've made that deal with yourself (let's call it the Team Liquid bargain). But it's not clear to me that he would have allowed his team to do so.

Like... look at the meta right now and what Dardoch is actually good at. Maybe Dardoch going off-meta would work out for him, but he clearly wasn't comfortable on Gragas despite being his most played champion.

I hope they keep Omar for next season. I think he could do well if allowed to start at the beginning.

zoraster · Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:40 am

Playin schedule announced: http://www.lolesports.com/en_US/worlds/ ... ps/Day%201

So um... I guess I'm going to seriously mess up my sleep schedule. I usually go to bed at 10pm and read for half an hour. Now I need to stay up until 4am or later. My wife is not going to like this.

zoraster · Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:58 am

I like to watch live when I can. I'll likely end up rewatching a good chunk via LoLEventVods, particularly for the play-ins.

zoraster · Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:00 pm

probably for the best. It'd make the tournament a 4 step process: Play-in group, play-in elimination, group stage, knockout.

zoraster · Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:32 pm

i'm pretty sure it counts.

zoraster · Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:16 pm

My current plan is to stay up for the C9 game (as well as the WE game before it) then watch the rest tomorrow on replay.

zoraster · Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:20 pm

I'm supposed to hike early tomorrow morning!

zoraster · Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:07 pm

Link?

zoraster · Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:07 pm

I'm not ruling that out either way. Anyway, my wife decided to join me watching the opening matches

zoraster · Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:26 pm

I hope when the games start they bring in the crowd noise. It's really antiseptic without it and just the announcers. I'm wondering if they're even in China?

zoraster · Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:21 am

In post 7462, SensFan wrote:As a TSM fan I'm a Lyon and Gambit fan right now.

I think any upset at all in play-in group standings gives a good shot at TSM not getting WE to the same degree as WE not getting #1 simply because it assures that a wildcard team makes it to group stages and could be slotted into TSM's group, assuming WE makes it past the Bo5.

zoraster · Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:34 am

C9 vs. Lyon at a time I can watch? Awesome.

Glad Fenerbahce has a good chance of getting out of groups. Fnatic's HKA match will hopefully be competitive. I only watched the YG games but Fnatic clearly having trouble figuring out how to close games.

I don't think WE will have trouble with YG.

On the plus side, TSM has a 50/50 chance of getting a wildcard team rather than WE, right? Haven't looked back at the implications since the group draw but one of one/fennerbace will make it out and can be slotted into Group D.

zoraster · Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:57 pm

They may! We'll see! I'm betting on no, but anything can happen.

zoraster · Wed Sep 27, 2017 3:53 pm

I am jazzed about this. Feels like the real start of worlds

zoraster · Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:09 am

now that eu lcs is splitting into regional leagues, maybe he should join a spanish team with mostly spanish speakers.

zoraster · Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:19 am

someone on reddit did the math for group placements. It looks correct:

IF WE Wins:

FNC: 50% A, 50% B
C9: 25% A, 75% C
WE: 37.5% B, 62.5% D
FB/ONE: 25% A, 12.5% B, 25% C, 37.5% D

Fnatic pulling pretty hard for Group B. C9 has an uphill battle either way, but Group A would be a much better draw.

From a competition point of view, I'd like to see C9 in Group A, Fnatic Group B, FB in Group C, and WE in Group D. I think that evens out the competition level the most of any options. Would suck for FB (who I'm guessing smashes One), but probably the best result for competition.

I actually think that probably gives NA the greatest chance for all three teams to get out of Groups as well (though to be clear, I think it's just as likely none get out). Yes, TSM would have a harder group, but they theoretically should be able to beat FW and Misfits at least. And that'd give C9 a theoretical chance (Edward known for not showing up at worlds, ahq thought of as super weak this year), and Immortals would just need to be better than Fnatic and not get upset by GAM.

zoraster · Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:20 pm

http://www.h2k.gg/story/h2ks-letter-to- ... nity-no-2/

Uh so H2K is basically saying riot needs to pay them or they're going home or something. I totally get where they're coming from but it's written in a way to remove a lot of the sympathy I have for them, essentially a demand for 6.5m euro for the "legacy" teams of EU LCS. Which may be fair or not, but something really puts me off the letter.

zoraster · Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:11 pm

In post 7504, pickemgenius wrote:if i were c9 id completely rather be in group c than in a.

idunno.

from a spectator pov it makes every game in group c like really fucking good. i just think c is a more open group than a.

c9 has better cumulative chances of taking 3-4 games against that group than they do of taking 1-2 from skt/edg presuming they would 2-0 ahq which I feel like I need to think they would to believe in group c being better for them.

since last nights games were both 3-0s tonights games.... are probably gonna be 3-0s as well.

I don't think so. G2 is legitimately good, riftrivals aside. Samsung is Korean and rng is arguably stronger than Edward that has a history of folding at worlds.

Ahq is considered very weak. I don't have any firsthand knowledge of them so I'm just going on hearsay but c9 should be able to take them and if not they wouldn't have taken games from anyone else anyway.

zoraster · Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:15 pm

In post 7508, dramonic wrote:Im way more excited by FNC in B, even if it could kill TSM

It shouldn't kill them at all, but it means tsm has to perform and can't get by by underperforming. Flashwolves is a team they should be favored against albeit not by much. Definitely should be favored vs. misfits. And it's not out of the question they could split or take both games against WE though I think they may be slight underdogs to do so.

If fnb is placed in their group, Tsm not getting out would mean they crashed and burned.

zoraster · Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:45 pm

zoraster · Fri Sep 29, 2017 6:34 am

Just finished watching. As I mentioned earlier, this is probably the best shot NA has for 3 teams making it out of groups. It's also a draw that could easily end up with 0.

EU should be reasonably happy. Misfits has a tougher group, but Fnatic has what it takes to beat Immortals. And G2 is good enough to take on RNG -- whether they actually accomplish that or not.

Overall I think these groups ended up pretty great from an entertainment standpoint.

zoraster · Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:01 am

I don't think it takes much imagination. I put FW as slight underdogs to TSM but it wouldn't really be "surprising" if they took both games from TSM. And WE is probably favored against TSM by a bit, though hopefully TSM will have picked up on some of the weaknesses WE exhibited. Misfits would be pretty surprising taking second but it's not out of the question.

So no, while it would be a disappointment, and TSM fans I'm sure would do their thing, it'd be easy for TSM not to make it out of the group.

zoraster · Fri Sep 29, 2017 9:13 am

INVITE INVITE: http://pickem.lolesports.com/share/seri ... euF/356109

zoraster · Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:41 pm

I dunno. I find it way better as a viewer. Bo3 was always the worst to me. Even Bo2 was better. I do worry about the effect of only playing 18 games in a split, but as a viewer, i'd prefer this.

I'd like to see this combined with some sort of FA Cup-esque competition that involved Best of 5s sprinkled through the season as a way to get the teams more games.

zoraster · Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:40 pm

so tonight it begins. One thing I realized that makes me kind of sad is that for NA to do well across the board this year it means that China has to do kind of badly. Normally that wouldn't bother me, but I like to see the host nation do well.

zoraster · Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:02 am

the AHQ-EDG game was pretty good too.

I think starting with GAM was the worst spot to get them, but they did pull that off well. Fnatic kind of played into their hands though.

zoraster · Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:11 am

Just watched the TSM game. Big one, on a knife's edge. One big plus is that Hauntzer looked good.

zoraster · Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:42 am

just keep in mind that there is a trend of NA doing well the first week only to crumble the second. I

think

this year they're honestly better than they were (and TSM doesn't look so flat), but i wouldn't be surprised to see NA struggle more next week. As much as I love watching GAM play, I'm really hoping to see IMT convert that into the win it should be.