17 Kilos of Cocaine - [GAME OVER]

[hitogoroshi]

VOTE: Spiffeh seems a little weird someone who can get bored in three hours would randomly hop off the big wagon

It's true that people with 0kg of cocaine are better to hammer, but right now anyone with 0kg identifying themselves would do more harm than good. For now, if you have 2+ kgs of cocaine, you should try to avoid hammering, but only if you can be subtle about it. No one should be claiming their kg counts yet; it's decently likely we never will but who knows what wacky game states we'll end up in.

One other thing it's important to note: this setup has the really annoying property where we can lose in night phase directly after lynching scum, something that can't happen in regular mafia. Anyone with a limited shot protective role, OR a limited shot vig that they KNOW resolves before scum kill, absolutely needs to hold on to their shots for the first couple of days. You need to not think of those roles as roles that block a kill or kill someone, but as roles that deny a certain amount of cocaine from the mafia. When you think of them that way, it's clear that the person who hammers scum on a latter day is almost certainly the highest single holder of cocaine, and thus the best target to protect or kill before the mafia does.

[hitogoroshi]

That's too much analysis this early hito

I agree in general it's not worth doing spec early, but you need to remember I'm hito and I get killed n1 a lot. And it's

super duper important

that limited shot docs and vigs understand how this setup is different than normal setups, and don't waste shots n1.

[hitogoroshi]

xyzzy is a good vote too.

Why do you say this? I think post 69 was nice.

[hitogoroshi]

VOTE: Bins

Sounds good

UNVOTE: Spiffeh, VOTE: Whemestar

I can buy that your chesskid vote was serious. But if that's the case, and your read on fire was presumably even stronger, I have no idea why you'd immediately join him on a wagon.

Vibes.

What's nice about 69?

Scum would love to encourage 0kg people to claim today; xyzzy pointing out the reason why they would try to do it and explicitly saying it wasn't worth it today is good.

[hitogoroshi]

My issue with that is that nobody was saying 0kg people should claim at that time were they?

No, but I think scum would want to open the conversation with wanting to spread the cocaine out, then sit back and hope a townie brings up having 0kgs claim. I don't think they proactively take a "not today" stance.

[hitogoroshi]

Worth noting I had a similar mechanic for Abarat II. This is how I templated it out:

You know that at least one element of the game depends on who "killed" the target. The killer of a player is either the person who used a killing ability on them, or the person who cast the final vote on them. In the event that neither of these players is alive, the last living person to vote for the target is considered the "killer". In the unlikely case that none of these players exist or are alive, the "killer" will be randomly chosen and informed as such.

I have to imagine Fakegod has "killer" similarly well-defined.

[hitogoroshi]

a better wagon will definitely come up because a dumb vague claim isn't enough to lynch someone on

anywho: it occurs to me that starting on day 2 and beyond, if we have a choice between lynching two people and one of them has hammered someone, we should lynch that person, because if they happen to both be scum, the one who theoretically might have the maximum amount of cocaine is the one to go with

I disagree. Remember, anyone on the town who has a lot of cocaine is someone who gives the scum a lot of cocaine when they're killed. Our goal isn't to try to "give town the most cocaine"; our goal is to have the cocaine distributed as evenly as possible. We gotta be coke commies.

To make things easier to talk about, let's define the amount of starting cocaine each person has as "C". C equals about one, since it's 17 kilos for 17 people, but of course we don't know exactly. But presumably, neither do scum; so we can assume that from their point of view the coke is "evenly distributed" at start, since they don't know who are the haves and have nots. Whoever hammers today will have 2C, and become an obvious priority target for the mafia if that person is not mafia themselves. Now let's say it's D2, and our scum suspects have C and that 2C hammerer.

All else being equal

, we would prefer to lynch the person who has C, because then the best scum can do with a nk is still aiming for a 2C target. Whereas hammering someone who has 2C means that the person hammering them has 3C. Ideally, we want to wait on anyone being 3C for as long as possible. 3C is probably also the point we should activate limited-shot docs and speed vigs.

[hitogoroshi]

Yeah, obv.

This is actually not as clear as it might seem, but more on this later. I.e. Lylo might not be when you think it is this game.

Actually lylo doesn't strictly exist in this game, since lylo is "lynch correctly or lose" but you can lose the night after a scum lynch in this game. Also I feel like a proud dad seein you do the mechanics spec correctly

Firebringer is probably town

Lylo might be when the net worth of dead people reaches 8-10 kilos probably

What makes you say this?

Is it bad that I think Reck trying pretty early on is so outside of the norm that I think he could be scum for it?

Most people coming back after a year+ break will start the game playing more deliberately than usual.

I don't get why you'd abandon your vote on me when I'd done pretty much nothing to address your concerns, to vote for Whemestar who's behavior looks more indicative of inexperience than alignment

In my experience, newbies cling more stubbornly to their reads, not less. Post 90 is exactly what I'd expect out of a new player, but abandoning it for a Firebringer vote is weird, and then immediately SHEEPING firebringer is really weird. He seemed excited enough about post 90 that you'd think the Firebringer swap was something he liked even more.

[hitogoroshi]

Also I feel like a proud dad seein you do the mechanics spec correctly

Was I ever that bad at it?

More that you would just generally abstain and make me do the work

Cephrir my dude, it's vaguely unnerving to see you posting so much but still just the RVS vote

this bulb vs bins thing seems pretty dumb

[hitogoroshi]

I like Spiffeh Cephrir and whemestar for town.

man I think you're town but I don't like this list one bit. not gonna be a tedious fuck and ask for three town cases but gimme the one that's most important.

Really liking bulba posting actually. iso 37 is good and I like his vote on xyzzy.

People really need to calm down on the shitposting, we were doing okay for the first couple of days and now it's just a mess.

I'm actually reasonably on board with xyzzy wagon, would still prefer whemestar but I can see where the winds of change are blowing

VOTE: xyzzy

[hitogoroshi]

would still prefer whemestar

Is this just because of the vote you didn't like, or has there been more since then?

it's for just the one reason, but more than just the vote. I'm fine with him going hard on chesskid from the start, and I'm...well, fine is the wrong word but I don't think a bunch of low-impact wagon drifting is that unusual for town here. I don't like the one first into the other.

Bulbazak has to do a lot more to get a townread from me and if you know what's good for you you will also apply a rigorous standard to him

if you're gonna try to talk me out of a townread, why not the one on the dude you're voting?

I guess this is already discussed on page 3, but I don't see much value in keeping it a secret who has 0.

Trivia corner: I am hito. I get shot N1 a lot on account of how swell I am. Let's suppose I am a dastardly scumbag. What would you do in my situation to try to justify not being nightkilled?

[hitogoroshi]

Elli, Bins: Bulba is town and a wagon on him ain't happening today. Please move votes accordingly

Chess: - I am sort of convinced by the town cephir thing. which is to say, he's not really positively town to me, but I'm getting bad vibes from so many people (whemestar as already stated, xyzzy for initially good spec with a really awkward transition, UT for having absolutely no reads but still weirdly specific questions and comments, spiffeh spam posting then falling off the cliff, ginngie just because) that I'm pretty happy to defer on ceph for a bit. and yeah on retrospect 200 was a good post. anyway I was with you in that it seemed like andrius's rep out / Kagamis entrance was skeevy, but looking at kagami iso top to bottom now, looks town to me. think you're buying what I'm selling? feels like the hito, kagami, chess 3-bloc would probably get to set the lynch if we all got that sweet love

[hitogoroshi]

You can just write me off as Town if that helps

you get to be town until at least your next post after ellis next post. please enjoy responsibly!

[hitogoroshi]

it's for just the one reason, but more than just the vote. I'm fine with him going hard on chesskid from the start, and I'm...well, fine is the wrong word but I don't think a bunch of low-impact wagon drifting is that unusual for town here. I don't like the one first into the other.

Why?

Because his first few posts seemed serious but he just threw it away to do this weird dicking around and voting with the person he was just voting for. It's weird when someone's first vote is serious and then they have a bunch of non-serious ones!

lmao @ elli

is "he's online and posting elsewhere but not here so he must be scum who is afraid to post in this game" something you've had success with beyond the newbie queue or...?

Hey despe I agree that going based on "visited ms but didn't post" is some weird shit but also you don't get to lmao when you still ain't doin shit, you need to show up with a vote, a contrite expression, and a bouquet of flowers. I like lilacs

Good lynches today: Bins, Dan, xyzzy, Desperado, Reck, UT, Ginngie in no order etc etc. I'm not exactly creaming my pants at the thought of a xyzzy lynch but I'm ok with it.

I don't want to lynch Reck or Dan today though even though their posting has landed them on the :deathlist:
Call me a softie but I like them as human beans etc etc

I am fine with these terms

breaking for legibility because I have a lot of quotes to respond to and quotewalls are gross

[hitogoroshi]

A town block is a group of ppl working together to solve the game who all mutually townread each other and I'm light years away from that

you are way overthinking this thing my dude. I am just noticing that me, chess, kagami will probably have a lot of political capital between us, I think we're all town, and we have some divergent reads. So, I would rather have the three of us agree on a lynch with a day or two before deadline, because we probably have the critical mass such that we'll get our way - as opposed to the current climate, which has a lot of low-impact scattering.

Bins, Wheme, Spiffeh is pretty much where I'll be voting today. Still content to keep riding the bins wave

a list of three vote targets in 16 seems like a pretty confident call, and confidence isn't what I get lookin at your ISO. why's this list so small?

-.- why r u voting me if this is exactly how i feel

i thought u would understaaaaaand but u rnt

I have no experience with Bins but this seems like a really town post

To be honest I was gonna propose a flash wagon on UT but I guess we should wait for the replacement. I feel a little bad following Elli's vote because his reasoning was truly the worst, but I really do loath how much desperado is posting without any reads

VOTE: Desperado

[hitogoroshi]

I am going to just randomly post things that come to my mind because I learned in my last game that when I'm just doing responsive quote walls people have trouble reading them. so all that shit up there is sort of the obligation and this is the hito late nite very tired directors cut. it has less glitter and polish than the full production but it's where you go to get The Real Me

I have no particular reason to believe grapes is town but his posts make me happy and lower my blood pressure so I just sorta want him to be town. it's one of those things where the background scum radiation this game is so strong that I love giving happy nulls a free pass for a while.

it's weird how much I suspect elli given I just voted with him. but he's off the table today! chess and I are both popular with different subsets of the town and I think if we tried to fight on something there's basically no chance of a scum lynch unless BOTH of our targets are scum. that's why I wanted to work that shit out up front.

bulba is #1 town, chess is #2 town, kagami is #3 town - in a bit more of a brittle way because I'm over-indexing over a relatively small bit of posting, but for now quite happy with it. (why did I pick chess and kagami but not bulba for my 3-bloc? because bulbas playstyle is not as bloc-inclusive, even though it is part of what makes me feel so good about my town read.) feeling a bit less sure about fire-town and basically hoping that this whole fire, wheme, ginn mess just gets night power aimed at it because reading it is an absolute nightmare.

I was actually getting really hype about trying for the UT swipe, partly just to get reck moving a bit and because I was really startin to feel it was right. I'm gonna be throwing big eyebrows at his replacement.

I'm not going to give the answer to the riddle of "why did I give spiffeh a town pass with such a specific duration" because it could still matter

[hitogoroshi]

as much as we're all enjoying whatever the fuck is happening here, we have the list already and neither of you are on it

Good lynches today: Bins, Dan, xyzzy, Desperado, Reck, UT, Ginngie in no order etc etc. I'm not exactly creaming my pants at the thought of a xyzzy lynch but I'm ok with it.

better luck tomorrow!

[hitogoroshi]

Firebringer, earnest question: do you believe you can get a major consensus on Cephrir in two-odd days or do you just not care whether or not you're influencing the lynch today

i don't think you're reading my posts very closely

like, there was that one where i said i didn't have any reads

then there are the ones after it where the angles i'm taking are pretty clear

so...???

(psst - if you have well defined reads then you still not voting is even worse! assuming you were just active lurking was the generous interpretation!)

lmao hito since when are you so funny what is this

chess don't do me dirty like that. I won funniest player ages ago - like back when VP baltar was still playing because I remember he nommed me. then it was more for reaction pictures and flowcharts

[hitogoroshi]

kagami town isn't something you talk about it's something you feel in your fuckin heart

I understand that literally my entire town all stars team is on bins so I'm being a bit of a diva about not riding with the town bloc I advocated in the first place. but since you're all fabulous and active I want to take a bit more time to follow my nose on some things. don't worry if I don't get something better I'm here for binswagon, it just doesn't feel right and I'm feeling energetic enough to keep poking around

you get to be town until at least your next post after ellis next post. please enjoy responsibly!

This has now happened so I would like an update

this was just me thinking "I think Elli might be scum, but it really depends where he goes when I flat out tell him to get off Bulba." since you were also voting Elli, I figured you were also going to heavily index your read off the same thing, so there was no real point trying to read you until you also got to react to Elli's movement.

[hitogoroshi]

that's cute

why is kagami such a strong townread?

buddy trying to pick away at a random town read as the day of reckoning draws near is a really bad look

I will extend my question to Firebringer to you since Firebringer didn't answer it:

Firebringer, earnest question: do you believe you can get a major consensus on Cephrir in two-odd days or do you just not care whether or not you're influencing the lynch today

except I guess replace "Cephrir" with "not even anybody"

[hitogoroshi]

I believe anything is possible hito

okay. if you believe there's a world where you convince folks to join you, clearly you are doing just an absolutely shitty job at it so far. what's your plan?

buddy trying to pick away at a random town read as the day of reckoning draws near is a really bad look

now it's just a random townread?

random as you "you are not connecting it to any theories about the gamestate and are just dicking around in the corner without taking a single stance on anything", not random as like, a value judgement about my strength of the read or something. if you wanna throw down on me or kagami then it wouldn't be random. but it sure looks like you're prioritizing picking fights just because you think you can win them over actually trying to identify scum and get them lynched.

[hitogoroshi]

alright so desperado

part of why I'm so coy on Kagami is just because sometimes towntells should be kept under your hat (and yes, my kagami-town tell falls in that category), and I think it's slightly sketch to want to keep forcing it after a hinted deflection. But the main reason I escalated it was because sometimes I like to give players I think are scum an "excuse" to not help the town, because a scum player would love to have this distraction to engage with instead of actually trying to be accountable to anything. whereas town should want to help the town even when I give a reason not to. So basically, you give scum something to do that's really far away from having any influence on the gamestate, and see which way they jump.

post 780 looked EXACTLY like that, with him being excited that he could ding me on the verbiage but not actually trying to forward any point. so I decided to just explicitly call out what I thought I was seeing to see what he did in response

if I had been awake for this

and you and I both know that a vote on either one of you right now would be pointless and go nowhere so I'm going to continue doing what I'm doing

I probably would have been super adamant I was correct because he's literally, explicitly saying "We both know the thing I'm doing is pointless in terms of influencing the lynch today, but it's still what I'm spending 100% of my time and effort on"

but I'm seeing all of the following posts at once, and some of his other posts about it have seemed townier. 806 and 838 seems like something that could come from town. I care a lot about always influencing the lynch but I know not everyone is as much of an extremist as I am about it, and if you're someone who comes in to mafia games imagining your goal is to understand every mystery and not just focusing on the lynches, yeah I suppose you would want to keep pushing.

so yeah Desperado - you are absolutely right I am deliberately stonewalling re: Kagami and I will continue to do so. I was pretty sure you cared so much because you were scum and this is a safe thing to do in thread instead of taking real stances, but now I can see the town angle on not liking it. temp truce contingent on you actually voting next post

UNVOTE: Desperado

I have thoughts on who to lynch instead but I'm doing them in a separate post

[hitogoroshi]

I could go for a wicked flash wagon given how we all feel about UT slot and the weird catchup pattern Chess mentioned.

I agree that Bins wagon is more informative now that Ginngie is intertwined so heavily with it (and I guess Kagami mentioned grapes, though I don't immediately see the connection). Still don't like it on gut but it's a much happier consolation prize.

At this point xyzzy would be almost more of a policy lynch because they're not really connected to anything. not a bad PL in isolation but when there's lots of good scum stuff going on I like PL's less. Whether I would want a xyzzy lynch more or less than Bins is actually a pretty interesting question, since I think Bins is more likely town but her wagon is a lot more informative than a xyzzy wagon would be

re Ginngie, I REALLY don't like this post (and to be honest this is part of the reason I mellowed on Despe catching up this morning):

all I asked him was why is kagami town. hito has stated three times that kagami is an extremely strong townread and I don't understand how he got there already. there is a huge difference between cephs take on kagami and hitos and I think it's alignment indicative so I'm pushing it

quality post

Ginn has literally never ever mentioned Kagami or Andrius, and only mentioned me once trying to get me to vote elli. so just cheering on "yeah! question that town read!" from the sidelines and otherwise just tunneling somewhere else REALLY puts me off. And it puts me off in a way where I'm specifically more inclined to believe Ginn is scum and Desperado is town (you don't do this cheerleading for your own scumbuddy). Town in a tunnel want a really tight and constrained lynch pool and definitely DON'T want a distraction off of their pet case, but scum always love to hear about some mislynches maybe being on the table tomorrow.

So I think my heart wants Wicked and Ginn the most. Bins and xyzzy are a distinct tier below but still fine. It's sort of annoying that Bins/Ginn almost certainly isn't a bus pair, which makes me want Bins less, but it's not as though my Ginn theory is rock-solid enough I can actively say "it's Ginn and not Bins". It's largely just one really bad gut ping.

I'll start here for now:

VOTE: Wickedestjr

[hitogoroshi]

Wickjestr catchup is horrible btw

This game with so many solidly justice players and you have 4 townreads and they're mostly gut? Nah man.

More specifically, it's a little weird how little stock he puts in his townreads town and scum reads. Of course, someone being town doesn't mean they're right, but usually in practice it's at least kind of correlated that you think someone is town based on their reads. But he's got bulbas scum read in town, bulbas town reads in neutral, Bins top scum read in neutral (she's on Elli now but was really vs Ginngie at time of posting)...I guess Spiffeh's reads are stale and despes reads never existed so really it's mostly just Bulba that caught my eye here.

I will join Jestr or stay on bins those are where I want to be right now. Bins is bigger so I'm staying here.

I prefer bins > Ginngie but I'm also willing to do Ginngie today and then bins tmrw if we don't get that sweet goopy scum juice reward.

Hito it may be time to bring the prodigal sheep back into the fold and reach a deal here because these sidewagons are killing me.

Eh, chaining a lynch off a mislynch is gross so I don't want a Ginn lynch on those terms.

Maybe give me your personal logic on bins > ginngie and we'll see if it settles my nerves?

[hitogoroshi]

y, it's a little weird how little stock he puts in his townreads town and scum reads.

Seems like a playstyle difference. You'll have to excuse it if I do the same thing... wait we've done this conversation before haven't we

LMAO
I was curious enough to look it up and we had a related but not exactly the same conversation. the conversation in accounting mafia was "I find it weird that someone would agree with all of my positions then vote this other player who's kind of a carbon copy of my positions". Whereas this is "I find it weird that someone has these townreads without putting any stock in to what their townreads actually think." But I guess you could disagree with both for the same playstyle reason, yeah.

[hitogoroshi]

okay I have zero logical justification for why this should be so but I feel like ceph remembering a random town v town argument we had in a previous game is a towntell.

[hitogoroshi]

This is really frustrating. People want to lynch me so bad based on one post. I've literally shown that that post is just my nature. You guys know how meta works, right? If I have been shown doing something as town in a previous game then that means it's not a scum tell now. Does it not bother anybody that so many people think I am scum but nobody is even interested in questioning me? One post was enough to decide you all just want to get rid of me?

If I had known that you guys were expecting a masterpiece for my catchup, then I could have taken the time to do some rereading but I wouldn't have contributed before day's end.

This post is heavily implying everyone pushing Wicked is town. You don't get frustrated by scum pushing a wagon on you, because they are just doing their job. But Wicked doesn't seem to be even considering the possibility he's being run up by scum. Smells a whole awful lot like "caught for the 'wrong' reasons".

Also this sort of woe is me tone seems to conflict with the power softclaim here:

Okay. Fwiw, I really don't want to have to claim today. But I probably will have to very soon if things don't improve.

I guess technically speaking this is another "meta" thing, but I seriously can't imagine anyone who posts something like 991 if they're sitting on a pocket ace.

Pretty sure I have some quotes to answer but a bit limited on time so wanted to get this out first.

[hitogoroshi]

even if he had replied the second way without an example attached, that would be sufficient for a scum read?

The funny thing is based on your thought process here Grapes would call you town for it. Because you asked a question with a clear "town answer"/"scum answer" in mind.

Oh grapes.

You don't miss reck or xyzzy? It feels weirdly artificial to single out one lurker in particular like this. And this in conjunction with how you're interacting with the wickedestjr wagon is giving me some real bad feelings.

ginn/ceph interactions give me better vibes on both of them

@ hito fair enough. you said elli is off the table today but i wasn't really following why. because chesskid said so???

yup

honoring the sacred trust of the bloc is important to get a good lynch on a day with so many players, so many lurkers, and such wide-spread wagons

[hitogoroshi]

Wicked, have you ever sent a PM to the moderator asking questions about your role (or been forwarded questions UT asked)?

[hitogoroshi]

So it's really unlikely there's just an "even-night vigilante" in this game, because kill priority is such a important aspect of the setup, and something needs to be defined if the mafia and the vig kill the same target. I would think that the vig would have it's speed w/r/t the mafia's kill speed defined one way or the other in the role title. And if it's just an "even-night vig", I think it's outrageous that he wouldn't ask Fakegod directly about the interactions of the speeds.

It also makes zero sense that Gustavo "Off-key" Lopez the street musician is murdering people, but plenty of sense that Gustavo "Off-key" Lopez is the flavor fakeclaim he had and Wicked post-hoc used his flavor and wrote a claim that lets him stall.

And of course it's totally unnerving how Wicked has made absolutely zero attempt to sort town vs scum on his wagon as this has all gone on.

I don't care about waiting for the vig because it doesn't exist

[hitogoroshi]

Ceph, here's the thing.

I'm a pretty weak PR, but my role does give me some insight into some of the mechanics of the setup.

An Even-night vig could be very elegantly implemented in a way that is very slightly weaker, but would be highly thematic and ties into a central mechanic. I was wondering if wicked was holding something back, but given the flavor, he's not. I think it's pretty unlikely that FG would have ignored this and created a straight-up even-night vig.

oh yeah also now I can say: Kagami's softlcaim is most of where my initial flip to townread came from, because it was done in a really convincing way. what made it convincing I will still not go in to detail on, but there are good softclaims and bad softclaims and Kagami's was great. (Kagami has thrown a lot of non-role townie brownies since then.) that is also part of why I was so put off by despse's probing initially

[hitogoroshi]

(for real though we should stop talking about it and I regret bringing it up, I just said it because my Kagami townread was such a sticking point that I figured some people might wanna know)

[hitogoroshi]

I also don't like Dan <--> Wicked
on the plus side Wicked-scum pretty much gives us xyzzy-town doesn't it?

[hitogoroshi]

Let's give Bulba the hammer? Seems like the most uncontroversial townread for the game as a whole.

[hitogoroshi]

ActionDan interaction with Wicked in ISO is disconcerting, especially his concern-trolling re: Wicked votes:

Is that in reference to your previous stance of wanting to vote UT before he became Wicked so as to give some context to your vote and that it makes sense in the grand scheme of the game?

I have read that.

If there is a specific thing you think I have not read that you think I ought to have read and want an opinion on, well, I am here to answer your questions.

The way the vote was placed looked more like that minor point was the one that broke the camel's back, instead of a "deadline's approaching, fuck it" kind of vote, even though I understand that there's commentary about the bins wagon in the same post. What were your concerns about the slot after wicked's replace in? activity or content related? (or both)

But having said that I want to wait for him to post before voting him.

Firebringer, this point on grapes is really disingenuous, given that chess's post telling him to vote Wicked was between those posts.

Ginngie, why on earth would you claim having cocaine stolen?

[hitogoroshi]

Scum might be able to steal drugs.
Or Town can.

Not sure, I don't care about drugs just justice

Sure. It's a pretty obvious role to include from either side. My question is why claim.

[hitogoroshi]

I mean if ginngie thinks scum did it than it's more likely pro town to announce.

Though he could just be lying to avoid being NK if it didn't happen

Why have you taken it upon yourself to give Ginngie some idea of answers to give?

[hitogoroshi]

Depends on the answer.

[hitogoroshi]

okay sure mortal combat time. dan, firebringer fullclaim role and flavor in your next posts. however, strip away modifiers that are solely rate or night limiting (eg if you're a one shot odd night watcher just claim "watcher"). but claim exactly what your role does, how you used it, and what result you got.

[hitogoroshi]

Ginn, that setup is a lot different than this one, given that the mafia don't need every single kilogram of cocaine to win the game, AND that town don't get any benefit from assembling all the cocaine on their side, AND that town can't willingly give away cocaine, AND that we expect the majority of players to have cocaine, AND that the scum have no win condition aside from cocaine.

but I'm gonna let it go for now anyway because this bit is more interesting

[hitogoroshi]

I honestly cba to read the rest of D1 but I will assume it's something spectacular

my iso and kagamis iso are respectfully short and will get you the main thrust of what happened with wicked

[hitogoroshi]

Bulba I see where you're coming from with Cephrir but start here and scroll down a bit. In my eyes, starting by saying "let's wait for the shot" and then backing down is actually a pretty significant town tell. Remember, it seemed like the town at large was going to accept "If there are two shots in the night, then Wicked is town". And the debate was basically saying it was too long to wait. So if you're a scummate who knows that

Wicked actually can produce a second kill

, I don't think you randomly back down so easily when faced with me and Kagami's points. You've already gone to bat for waiting for the shot, and as scum you KNOW you will be vindicated, so it's sort of worst of both worlds to take the stance so strongly and then back down so quickly in the face of opposition.

Having said that, I just realized this line of reasoning isn't as strong as I thought it was because there's a decent chance that the scum just have even night vig and odd night vig in lieu of a true nightkill (and so Wicked couldn't actually produce the 'second shot'). Well, whatever, I still think Cephrir is town.

You can imagine my vote soft parked on Dan but it's not quite time to hammer him yet.

[hitogoroshi]

@Hito: So how

do

you think scum react to the Wicked wagon and the claim? I have two different camps I'm considering, but I don't think there's more than one in each camp. I think we have varied responses here, and I just want to nail them down.

I think largely ignoring it and pushing your own pet wagon, which plenty of folks did, is probably the most likely reaction. Doing what Cephrir did but going all in on it is another possible one, but I don't think anyone did that. Chess's reaction is also one I would maybe expect, where you try to force out the claim (because you think it'll be very strong) and frame it as a 1v1 with the PRs. (I don't think Chess is particularly likely scum, just that

specifically

his reaction to Wicked-wagon would make sense as a scumbuddy.)

Yeah I doubt scum just have vigs in substitute for NK

Why?

Dan's 1v1 was mediocre, and I'm not happy with it, but Xyzzy's vote was bad.

I still have trouble seeing xyzzy as scum here. It really looks like Wicked very deliberately tried to slow-roll his claim until we had very little time left so we would panic converge on xyzzy. Seems like a really weird situation to cross-bus.

[hitogoroshi]

sorry FB, it's just that Dan is one of those guys who will probably give up another scum member with his last posts,

even though

he knows we're about to lynch him and he could just go for WIFOM. So I really want a post or two outta him before the hammer.

don't worry though, while I'm not exactly a devotee of the Elli-list, I do agree we need to not overthink things and eat our own tails here. 1259 was a scumclaim and I'm not gonna get so bored I forget about it.

[hitogoroshi]

I want a post before day ends to explain a couple of things I've been slow-rolling.

I think the post would be better if Dan posted first, not matter how hard he tries to WIFOM, but I understand Dan is scum and it's boring to wait. So let me know if we're not waiting for him to come back and I'll post it.

[hitogoroshi]

Well, it's a good thing I didn't die, or this derail would have probably eaten the whole day. Here's one of those two posts I wanted before the day ended yesterday.

Ginngie isn't lying about losing her coke, because I took it.

I'm Homeless Guy Albert "the One-tooth" Mare. Ordinarily it would seem like being a coke thief is a kind of crappy power for hito, since I'm pretty obv town and a good nk target anyway. However,

by fulfilling a second (much stricter) condition, I can also burn the cocaine I steal, removing it from the game entirely.

On N1 I was able to do so, and I stole and burned Ginngie's cocaine.
On N2 I was not able to fulfill the condition, and so I did not steal any cocaine.
On future nights, I will only steal cocaine that I can burn. If I'm nk'd, assume I'm a normal 1C player.

I didn't want to claim this immediately because I wanted to see if anyone implicitly assumed the cocaine thief was town. I had planned to claim end of D2, because my role name doesn't suggest I can burn cocaine, so just seeing my flip would suggest that scum got a lot of cocaine from killing me.

[hitogoroshi]

K. Ginngie gets no more hammers, chesskid gets the next 1-2 and you dont touch his cocaine hito. All parties agreed to this to spread out the points of failure?

the 'his cocaine' is chesskids cocaine.

That's a pretty surprising claim - that literally removing your cocaine from the game would be worse than keeping it with you. I'll play along because we've got so much tempo, but I'll be holding you accountable to this whenever fullclaims come out.

I think it's totally possible the Wicked wagon was all town. I have no idea why we're assuming hard-bussing given that his role was so strong. And since two scum are already flipped, just by random chance alone the names on his wagon are unlikely to be scum - and I think the probability of bussing would be a lot lower than random voting.

[hitogoroshi]

And now for the other thing I wanted to post yesterday. This will be a wallpost, but I'll try to keep it interesting.

Why Was Dan So Damn Jumpy: A Detective Story

A couple of things to note. First, bussing is a lot less dangerous in this setup than most, since you can just kill the hammerer and get the cocaine. I didn't get in to this before because Wicked's specific role is a really awful one to have to bus, so I still think that's a pretty pure wagon - but in general for this setup, a bus isn't much of a speed-bump, as long as you get townread for it. So, fake 1v1s are something I've been keeping an eye out for.

The second thing you need to know is that Dan already knew I'd be after him tomorrow:

I also don't like Dan <--> Wicked
on the plus side Wicked-scum pretty much gives us xyzzy-town doesn't it?

With this context, let's go in to D2, where Fire immediately drops a soft guilty:

So funny story.

I visited kagami last night and I saw shit you won't believe.

VOTE: Actiondan

And Dan responds with - the lamest, limpest answer ever:

Fun fact. Watcher is part of my role name.

I didn't visit kagami much less kill her so let's get this over with. Glorious 1v1 mortal combat

He

doesn't even vote for Firebringer

.

My first reaction reading this is - wow, this looks like really bad scum-scum acting. So I try to escalate it:

okay sure mortal combat time. dan, firebringer fullclaim role and flavor in your next posts. however, strip away modifiers that are solely rate or night limiting (eg if you're a one shot odd night watcher just claim "watcher"). but claim exactly what your role does, how you used it, and what result you got.

Now, from the perspective of Firebringer-town, this is when you post your mortal combat post to finish up Dan. And from the perspective of Dan, this is where you make up any damn nonsense just to force the details of Firebringer's role out. But instead, Dan's next post is a dumb joke:

Spiffeh shot kagami.

And Firebringer's next post is just making random conversation:

I think Spiffeh only reads posts with his name in it....

It really looks like both Firebringer and ActionDan knew that the other person wasn't going to have their heart in it.

Now, having said that - I would imagine that in the planned bus Firebringer would have held to the fake guilty, and not abandoned it. So I was a bit less certain as the day went on about this theory, becasuse Firebringer wasn't really setting himself to gain too much cred for the wagon.

That

was the reason I wanted a Dan post before day end - because I had a theory they were trying to get Dan to do an effort-post so Firebringer could have "second thoughts" and go for the other people he was angling for D2. Essentially trying to abort the gambit after Dan's reaction was so transparent that no one really gets cred for voting him. And of course, now we won't get that chance.

So I'm not 100% on this because I didn't get the chance to fully play it out. But still - Dan rolled over and died so easily with post 1259, and I still think the most compelling theory as to why is that Firebringer is his scumbuddy, and this was a planned fake 1v1 that was botched by Dan's awful post and his subsequent laziness to dig out of the hole.

Vote: Firebringer

[hitogoroshi]

chess hammers
Hito burns my coke
I hammer
Hito burns chess' coke

alternate

I'm

really

trying to play the condition close to the vest here, so let me just say - I can't know ahead of time whether I'll be able to burn coke on a particular night. So I can't do a strict plan like this one.

To remove the hito is playing us card

This is something that's got me fucked up because we can't prove that he's burning it.

That's why I'm pledging not to steal without burns. Each burn I can get off is fucking devastating to scum, so if I get a second one and you start having WIFOM jitters, it really doesn't matter if I become a distraction because the damage has been done.

[hitogoroshi]

Firebringer, you're up

[hitogoroshi]

Oh, huh, guess I missed that. Then Ceph is almost certainly town.

[hitogoroshi]

hito any chance you'll go back to that weird blue thing that used to be your avatar

this weird blind guy scares me

Do you mean this guy?



I would think he'd be scarier...

[hitogoroshi]

(psst - don't comment on whether the claimed roles so far seem "too strong" or not, because even if FB is scum there's probably one more buddy who has to figure out what claims are and are not safe. let us remain as solemn as deacons and as quiet as church mice until the proceedings have concluded)

[hitogoroshi]

We're massclaiming because scum already have a bunch of priority nightkill targets. So coordinating information lets us constrain the scums movements and potentially catch them in an all-out lie, while giving the scum very little in return. It's the same reason fish travel in schools.

[hitogoroshi]

Also if bins flips town everything is chesskid's fault for outing me :')

Dude, loud RB is like one of the best roles to have out there publicly. You can claim the target you're going to target if we lynch scum today and then if you die we still have an inno on that perosn. (If we mislynch today ignore the claim and do whatever you want.)

[hitogoroshi]

What the fuck? We are voting for the person who was roleblocked on a night with no kill. It's like chess elli and I are running a fucking daycare here

VOTE: Bins

[hitogoroshi]

rb'd on a night with no kill, claiming same role name as chess with different mechanics.

Wheme, did Kagami also have to submit things to you? You're probably conftown if you go through the effort of a proper fullclaim so please just do it for me because I am asking nicely

[hitogoroshi]

hey hit is your avi the guy from hunter x hunter who smoked a lot

Yup. I switched to it when he debuted in the anime while I was running HunterxHunterxMafia. You should check it out, it has some really cool roles that match flavor like Kurapika and Kortopi. Also I have Light Nostrade and the Zoldycks who have kind of the opposite of your power.

Bulba, Bins was roleblocked and no kill went through. You really think that's because this game has BOTH an informed BP AND an uninformed BP, both named BP but with different mechanics, and that scum shot Bins for god knows what reason even though there's like five psuedo-confs they have to work through after the righteous Wicked wagon? On the strength of her soft claim even though both Chess and myself were ALSO softing while simultaneously being, y'know, direct advocates of both scum lynches?

Hit who do I vote

Bins. Scum didn't shoot and she's the person who was blocked.

[hitogoroshi]

Okay, here's the plan.

BEFORE WE HAMMER, CHILDREN

Cephrir, pick someone you would call as Bins scumbuddy if she flips scum. Pledge to roleblock there on a Bins scumflip. That way, if you die, we still get the inno-baring-strongman. On a Bins townflip (???), just listen to your heart and block that target or someone else, whatever.

Reck, take a shot wherever. Not Chess or Ceph but otherwise knock yourself out. I would super recommend not Elli which I notice you tried, but you are master of your own destiny.

xyzzy, give your cocaine to chesskid. We want to verify you have the ability and chess is a safe spot for it. We'll give him your cocaine and this hammer, and then we'll stop on the off-chance scum have a "take-all-the-cocaine" thief ability. (Mine is only 1kg and I suspect any scums would be as well, so this is just me reaalllly playing the margins.)

I don't think there's really any relevant role plans from the rest of you. Knock yourselves out

Reck claimed to have shot Bins n1. Bins also came in thinking she might have been the NK, which fits if you're an uninformed BP. I think it's something she would do as town.

It's not about what Bins would or would not do; it's about how unlikely scum would be to shoot her. And the only other theory aside from "Bins got shot, but had this ridiculously convenient role with the same name but different mechanics as another role" is "Bins was scum and Cephrir roleblocked the kill." If you want not-Bins today, you are earnestly advocating for that first theory, in which case try to sell me because it sounds like nonsense from where I sit.

[hitogoroshi]

Also for the record, I'm switching to Bins because that's the highest percentage one, but it's probably also Firebringer because one of the two coke cops being scum makes a lot of sense. Cephrir, you get to choose your RB target on a Bins scumflip but I hope you pick Firebringer in honor of the good times we've shared <3

[hitogoroshi]

wait if he dies how we do have a clear

So basically there's like zero chance this is 12:5, right? And if there's three scum, we just win on a Bins scumflip. So let's assume that if Bins flips and the game isn't over, it's four scum. Then Firebringer just calls his RBs the night before. If he was killed, it wasn't by his RB target unless they are a strongman. So the person he named is probably not scum.

Also for the record, I'm switching to Bins because that's the highest percentage one, but it's probably also Firebringer because one of the two coke cops being scum makes a lot of sense. Cephrir, you get to choose your RB target on a Bins scumflip but I hope you pick Firebringer in honor of the good times we've shared <3

Yeah thats why i denied fire's warrant

Wait, so the warrants come with names also? you know who submitted which?

[hitogoroshi]

ya so cephrir has to announce before hammer who he is rbing

Yup. and xyz needs to confirm they'll give you coke tonight, and Ginn needs to claim. And technically Reck needs to pledge to shoot someone but we already have that pledge by virtue of him being Reck.

In fact I'll write it as a nice checklist

Quest: Day Three

Objectives (1/5)

• [!]
  Hito, Chess, and Elli
  figure out who the scum is. [Complete!]
  
• [ ]
  Cephrir
  claims who he will RB if Bins flips scum.
  
• [ ]
  xyzzy
  pledges to give chess the sweet Colombian Nose Candy tonight.
  
• [ ]
  Ginngie
  claims her role.
  
• [ ] (Optional)
  Reckoner
  promises to do what he was always going to do.

Quest Reward:

We get two whole days where we don't need to read this game

[hitogoroshi]

I'm not super into the habit of believing claimed scum so let's at least get Cephrir's target before we finish off Bins. I don't really mind going without xyzzy's pledge or Ginn's claim but the Cephrir claim is actually important.

[hitogoroshi]

earnestly think the whole bloc is joint mvp because there was a lot of fucking about and the correct reads would have just been cassandras if we didn't work together. Like yo just think back on all the nonsense arguments everyone spewed and how much we just assumed they wouldn't matter because we were just talking to ourselves and forcing everyone else to fall in line.

kagami counts even though they were only with us one night because I'm sure they would have stood for justice and truth had it not been for Murder Most Foul

With Firebringer town, I have absolutely no idea why ActionDan just gave up for no reason. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Also for those who don't want to scroll to role PMs, my "condition" for burning was just me trying to eat NK, actually my role was one-shot