Mini 1939 - Organization XIII (Game Over)

[XIII Roxas]

If saix/demyx is the scumteam then that's a scumbag replace out.

My thoughts exactly.

[XIII Roxas]

I honestly have no fucking clue who to lynch now.

Why Demyx of course. The wagon on him's still there, the reasons he's scum still apply, and the game's basically POEd down to him and a very, very small pool of others. (Demyx/Saix/Xaldin. Others add Axel even though I exclude him.) He's scum...and even if he isn't. Even if, in some bizzarro world he's town...his lynch STILL gives us a bundleload of information, in that we know EXACTLY where to go. If he's scum, he's not only a scum lynch, but also a scum lynch which further gives us an idea of where the final scum is. If he's town, we still benefit because we get to know who the final scum would be. But that doesn't really matter much, because he's just. scum.

If Saix replaces in and guarantees to take a shot tonight I almost might prefer no lynching.

I hope someone explained to you the myriad of reasons why this is a hilariously bad idea such that I don't have to spend the time ranting about mafia theory to you and why we should never ever ever be no-lynching today and literally any non-Xemnas lynch would be better. (Short version: the numerous number of ways Saix wouldn't get a shot off up to and including Saix making the whole thing up; us being on evens + a successful shot going off + the nightkill = we still are on evens whereas us lynching + a successful shot going off + the nightkill = we're now on odds.)

[XIII Roxas]

What's the penalty for breaking your post restriction?

Hopefully getting lynched?

If there were any doubts Zexion was town btw, these should settle them. I know Zexion and I know that as scum they still feel at least some obligation to win. They don't bus, and they discourage scumbuddies from bussing. The latter can be broken if Zexion determines that their own lynch will drive their team to victory...but here, I can't see any scumteam where that'd be the case. The opposite, Zexion being lynched would be handing victory to the town.

So, I really really really don't think this is a scum-Zexion. There was no need for this as a gambit, AtE-insert-buzzwords-of-your-choice-here-ploy, either, because Zexion was under no threat of being lynched. None. Zero. Nadda. The only person under pressure right now who Zexion benefits by distracting us from is Demyx...in which case Demyx would be scum anyway so we fucking lynch Demyx first and if after he flips scum you still want to approach the angle of this being a scum ploy then I'll run through the scenarios but just really it's not. It is town.

[XIII Roxas]

I think that adding in a watcher in addition to a night skipper in addition to the evolving protective role is strangely skewed balance wise. I find the timing of his claim weird - the self-vote came at a time when he was supposedly resigned to die, but I don't think suddenly deciding to claim is consistent with that.

I mean I didn't quote Luxord's Demyx case even though obviously I agree with it but I really felt like quoting this and stating my strong agreement with it as well.

[XIII Roxas]

I may not have read the game but it seems to me that scum rarely use getting votes on themselves as a strategy

[XIII Roxas]

In other news I was mulling over Xig's role in bed this morning (because what else does one do when they wake up) and it occurred to me that Vexen's role and Xig's role being scum would make 2/3rds of the scumteam untargettable. I feel like that'd be kind of overkill and ruins the whole point of a role-madness game if so. Holding on to that might be easier for me than holding onto "Xig wouldn't bus there" because while I do still feel like that's the case, there's obviously problems with that.

I mean.
That kinda went without saying.
But since I value play over roles, I insist on the latter. There are times and ways Xigbar would bus. They are absolutely NOTHING like what Xigbar did this game. He is town. No matter what way you approach it, good-as-Xemnas-levels of conftown.

[XIII Roxas]

Maybe I should be playing a little close to the vest if I'm shooting tonight. Wouldn't surprise me if there was a scum power to get around my bomb ability, like a BP or doc.

[XIII Roxas]

Between my role and some of the others I have seen claimed, it seems as though scum must have powerful roles as well. Here's a thought, what if Xaldin's role is just a scum role.

Nothing in Saix 2.0's posting catchup has been good. The opposite, it's highlights like this which illustrate exactly why I think Saix is scum.

[XIII Roxas]

Made it to page 50. Done for a while. I have some thoughts, though you shouldn't expect a wall at all, and I'm not sure I should share them today. I plan on vigging someone with an X in their name.

[XIII Roxas]

I will say that Demyx is currently my second strongest townread so I'm not keen on this wagon.

[XIII Roxas]

My desire to play this game is being seriously drained.

To be honest. While this isn't the reason I've been coming in, then leaving, then returning (that would be more life stuff) mostly by virtue of prods prompting me to come back. It's probably a serious contributor to it. I'm struggling to maintain my mafiascum presence. This is obvious to anyone who actually knows who I am.

And, I'm not talking about "knows the scummer", though that is a requirement for knowing who I am. I mean. It is pretty self-evident to those who know who I am. That I am having trouble. This is not the only place where I'm largely prod-dodging. It's true enough that I post plenty outside of the game forums...but people who pay attention to the volume and timing should be realizing even there I'm doing so less often, and in shorter bursts, and with less energy, and altogether am just having a difficult time sticking around.

I have a stubborn sense of pride preventing me from ever willingly replacing out. I /inned to play the game and I would never /out unless I was absolutely forced to. (By which, I mean: being force-replaced for something not my fault, some real life emergency which completely and totally removes my ability to play altogether not temporarily but long-term.) ESPECIALLY since of my ego, in that this being an alt-game. I invoked my altplay rules even though I put no effort to hide my identity (which I normally would on an alt): never give something which would unambiguously give away my identity. And a mass-replace-out of my games would do exactly that. If I replaced out of all my games in a short timeframe it would become obvious who I am and I don't want to ever let that happen. (Incidentally this is also the reason I tend to limit my alt-games even when I don't limit my games on my main.)

Basically, my heart's really not into mafia right now...but I'll still see it through. I hold the obligation to do so.

[XIII Roxas]

Is almost everyoen a new person at this point?

This is absolutely who we vig btw.

Like.

I think Saix is scum.
But in a world where Saix is a vig.
Not shooting Xaldin is a scumclaim.

[XIII Roxas]

It also likely means that scum feel fine about looking town in a mass claim, so let's not give too much credit for town-looking roles thanks.

If someone targets me at night, they will be killed automatically. I can kill someone at night, but if I choose to do so, I will forfeit the first ability. So, in effect, I have only one functional power but been given the option to choose out of the two. Lynching is the only likely way I will be shown the door, unless the scum can afford to reduce by 1. I can go to the endgame if people believe me.

[VII Saix]

Lolz. I don't even want to try to engage with that giant pile of spending 1000 words restating your opinions without offering a solitary actual point to back up a lick of it.

[XIII Roxas]

The second half of my role is a conditional bulletproof.

I knew it was going to be bulletproof.

Well no fucking duh. I said my role had ties to Godfather. Back in the day, Godfather wasn't universally investigation-immune; some Godfathers were instead...
...Bulletproof.

I said Zero to Hero, which is a song from Hercules. Hercules, in the last Heartless game, was a conditional-bulletproof. (Who, mind you, also had a day-power to go alongside it.) I outright demanded to be investigated, because bulletproof conftown = game-winning combination. I specified that half my role gave me towncred (my doublevoter), but the other half made me really want to be investigated. There's only so many roles which that could be.

I have been mislynched as a bulletproof before (albeit, the inverse of mine in that I was voteless rather than a doublevoter), in an infamous game no less which I still carry many bitter, sour memories of. (As a hydra if you are curious, but 95% of our posting was me.) I said that my role was probably one of the stronger roles in the game. And I'm a doublevoting bulletproof. (Well conditional, butstill.) There couldn't be any role I COULD be other than bulletproof.

[XIII Roxas]

So ATM I'm not vigging Xig, Lux or Dem. Everyone else is still on the table pending the rest of my read and the rest of this Day.

[XIII Roxas]

Its really nice having a sane Saix now. Please be town.

I'll believe it when I see Saix's corpse and not a moment sooner.

[VII Saix]

I said Zero to Hero, which is a song from Hercules. Hercules, in the last Heartless game, was a conditional-bulletproof. (Who, mind you, also had a day-power to go alongside it.)

And I have no idea what possesses you to think anyone else could have possibly figured this out, which I'm pretty sure is the point of crumbs anyways.

[VII Saix]

Tch.

Try me, we'll see how that works out.

[VII Saix]

This is so frigging textbook you it's almost making me think you could be town. I've wanted to be right about this wall of trash thing in the past, and I haven't been.

[VII Saix]

Whatever, hopefully the other replacements' fresh take on the game will cause them to notice what an absurd tragedy is that Xaldin isn't dead yet.

[XIII Roxas]

I await the detailed explanation why this is town behavior.

It isn't! It also isn't scum behavior because lurking is detrimental to my wincon. As scum I might work best in the shadows, but I still require a strong stage presence to do so. My scumgame can be summed up as essentially: "Is very much actively in the game, but is in the game in such a way that people don't pay much attention until it's too late". I'm not active in the game right now and that's detrimental regardless of my wincon. I'd maybe go so far as to say it's more detrimental to a scum-me than a town-me, because a town-me isn't often the one driving the game towards victory; a town me tends to help wins in subtler ways if I help at all. So me not being around as town doesn't really hurt that much. Me not being around as scum DOES hurt, because me not being around means I'm not driving the game which means I'm not the one really influencing events.

I'm fucking not here because I'm fucking not here. Not because it's playing to my wincon. Because I'm just not really in the game. If you want any real description for why that'd be town behavior the closest you're gonna get is that I WOULD be in the game as scum, but even saying that is a stretch since I've got absolutely no guarantee of the sort. I'm not in the game. I'm doing the best I can do to still be in the game. If that's not good enough, then tough. I'm not replacing out. Not even when I'm like this.

[XIII Roxas]

VOTE: Xaldin

I'll vote here, but it's not my preferred option for a few reasons:
-I think Saix is scum.
-If Saix is telling the truth about the vig, there's no guarantee Saix is town.
-Even if you take it as gospel that Saix proving the vig is town, and even if the shot goes through...Saix has made it quite clear he won't shoot Demyx. As such, anyone Saix shoots other than possibly Xaldin would be town.
-Saix has made it clear he is willing to vig Xaldin.
-Xaldin could indeed be scum.
-Thus, Saix shooting Xaldin is a good thing.
-But we don't want to lynch Xaldin because if we lynch Xaldin, then who does Saix shoot? Not scum, I guarantee you that. Probably not even someone we want shot.

I'm probably not explaining my points well enough. But basically. There's an optimal order of operations. Xaldin does need to die. I absolutely agree with you 100% there. But if Xaldin is our lynch, then Saix either doesn't vig someone successfully, OR if Saix by some miracle does shoot correctly...we'll have ourselves two dead town. (One by vig, one by scum nightkill.) This is because by lynching Xaldin, we by default aren't leashing the vig kill. We give Saix free reign on who to kill and that's the last thing we want to do.

In contrast, if we lynch Demyx, then Saix can shoot Xaldin and ONLY Xaldin. Any other shot is a scumclaim.

I wish I could word this better.

[VII Saix]

If I could draw, I'd make you a nice neon "Demyx and Saix are scum because I said so" sign and you could just post that instead of words!

[XIII Roxas]

Lolz. I don't even want to try to engage with that giant pile of spending 1000 words restating your opinions without offering a solitary actual point to back up a lick of it.

Ironic, given:

I'm going to write a little now because I feel like it. I have just finished page 96. The order is arbitrary (actually, it's the readlist I made on page 50ish, but whatever).

Zexion is someone I townread for most of the game. I liked his ATE stuff, sue me, and I saw him as the more likely town in the Xig/Zex pair-anoia thing they were doing for like the first half of the game. His interaction with the Vexen wagon sucked, however, and his Day 3 play up to 96 feels like giving up and/or just all around trash. I don't get it, but I'm coming down to an uncertain take here.

Demyx 1.0 was a townread, all the stronger for how he and Vexen went at it. Frankly I no longer recall why at this point, but I remember thinking he wouldn't be scum due to Vexen's scum flip. His successor totally flipping that stance really doesn't matter to me at all, nor does his decision to play like a shitlord. I am glad he's being replaced, hopefully the new person can actually get their shit together and go back to being town.

Xigbar was a vaguely town read for me for a lot of the game, though I had paranoia about it sometimes. After yesterday, I have no interest in lynching there right now. His scrambling on Day 1 felt town, and I dug things like his admission he wasonly 90% confident after Vexen was hammered. I'm not clearing this slot forever by any means, but it's likely town.

I loved Luxord 1.0 and townread him strongly. 2.0 sucked. 3.0 I'm pretty sure I have an identity on, and I don't have much confidence in my ability to read that person but I think they've been sounding town. That combined with my 1.0 read makes me feel good about town-binning them for now.

Marluxia basically pops into existence to make a few vaguely town sounding posts every so often and then fade back into the background. They're possibly someone the game needs to be cured of at some point. Have no confidence here.

Axel has a townish role but I won't discount it possibly being from scum. Most of his posting is lame and I've agreed with scumreads on him at times but I've had some pause regarding his interaction with the Vexen wagon and whatever the fuck is happening with him and Zexion now. I know I had more to say here that I'm just forgetting...

Xaldin's posts are scumalicious and do nothing. He used his role in a protown manner, but that's about all he has going for him.

I liked Roxas at the start of the game with asking to be investigated and such. Felt like something a BP with a big ego might think. However, I've distrusted this more and more with time. I haven't seen any particular reason to discount this slot as a Vexen buddy. I don't have a case or anything, I just don't see much town posting happening here, and I'm wary that they're a scum BP that exists because of my role. Have hated their Demyx stuff today. If we want to play "too many protectives," this is where the music stops.

I think I forgot more about this game between starting and ending this post than my predecessor ever knew.