Open 698: Stack the Deck (GAME OVER)

[Realeo]

@Realeo, if there was something to learn from Duck's wagon, it would most likely come when I also have a lot of other confirmed information. I work a lot better with 10 data points than 1. You didn't see it, but that's why I got nightkilled in Large Normal 204: I replaced in N2, then used all the data available in the thread to locate three scum in two and a half days.

Let's say that I give you the benefit of the doubt and trust you that you are looking for information.

My questions is, what kind of data points are you looking for?

[ironstove]

I think the conclusion here is that commknight is scum.

[UnaBombaH]

Phew, finally have some time to post.
I'll check the deadline and all soon, but if I have time to collect my thoughts and post, I'm OK with being the lynch vs no-lynching or another rushed wagon.
Writing now, trying to rack up as much as possible.

[UnaBombaH]

So, my take on the whole interaction between mulch vs chip and butts is that they're not both scum.

Agree with this one.

My fear is that if una flips town, this makes me look bad because I was the first to vote for him and pushed for his lynch. I don't think he's town though.

This feels like a clumsy scum-move of trying to keep up appearances..I mean, it feels like he is worried about looking scummy, AFTER HIS PLAY ON D1?
I am town, and this makes me think he knows it.

I think commknight's 792 trying to direct the vig shot is something I generally see scum players trying to do. Town players who do this tend to be big-dick type players but comm has not really played in that style, so it appears to be more motivated from the standpoint of a scum trying to get vig to shoot town/not shoot scum.

...and then he is back to making points I agree with. So either he is scum, dropping some real reads amongst his posts, or he is a townie who feels fake when trying to convey emotions.
Then again, he is roleplaying a dog.

Eh, actually I changed my mind. I think mulch is scum now. I read through his ISO and his previous games as town and scum. I have to agree this is scum mulch.

And the ensuing exchange between them feels like SvT (or TvS).

I think the conclusion here is that commknight is scum.

Would love to hear an explanation for this one, since I don't explicitly disagree.

[UnaBombaH]

My conclusion was "One. UNA's wagon reached more attraction--but lose its power easier--because he was the mislynch."

This was my thought too, was VERY disappointed in the IceGuy flip..

One does not simply hammer someone without a claim.

I agree with this statement. I also disagreed with how the Duckworth-wagon formed.
Imagine it from my POV (and accept that I am town for the time you read this):

It felt like either me or IceGuy was going to be the lynch D1, almost 100% surely. I'm conf.town to myself AND I scumread IceGuy, so I felt comfortable with the situation, because I was sure we would nail scum at least D2 if I were to be the lynch D1. I felt like it was for certain there was scum on my wagon, because I thought they were trying to divert us from their buddy (Ice).
Then BOTH wagons are overturned by the Duckworth-lynch, AND I was absolutely sure Ice was scum.
Then we wake up to two townflips coming into D2, including IceGuy and GameNBurger.

Now I'm in a situation where my #1 scumread was Vig'ed, and the player who scumread me the harderst was NK'd! (my assumptions, make the most sense to me this way around)
Now there is no reason to assume anything about scum positioning in the wagons, because THEY WERE ALL ON TOWN.

And this is how I arrived at Alch/Comm having at least one scum in them.
They felt like the strongest townplayers D1, yet they both only drove wagons on town, including today on me.
I re-read GameNBurgers ISO, and I'm confident there was no apparent reason to NK him over Comm/Alch.
IceGuy as scums NK makes no sense: they could've kept us 1v1'ing all of D2, and guaranteed a lynch on town.

Speaking of UNA's night kill--I have a question: Why am I not dead? Am I not towntelling enough?

I was wondering the same.

I object to Una's lynch.

Well, it's not really object. It's more to delay it.

Scum would know I'm town, and would probably just say they object to lynching me for towncred, with no need to nitpick words in this specific situation. I'm further locking Realeo as town now.

[Mulch]

I think the conclusion here is that commknight is scum.

My conclusion is that your scum

[UnaBombaH]

^The Una bit is probably ok, but it can't hurt to wait for him to get back.

No, it shouldn't hurt town, might hurt scum if my reads happen to make any sense to anyone.

I think we do need to see Una flip. Intent to hammer.

Any objections from anyone? Speak now or stfu later...Una, any final words in your defence?

Okay, I'll give it a few hours. We've heard from Una a few times, so he has had a chance to mount a defence.

WAIT WHAT?
And this was AFTER I had stopped by to say that I can't provide anything before sat/sun, and only 17 posts after his latest..?
DISLIKE, but maybe NAI?

Tip your hat Mulchy, it's over. Hyperaggressive Mulch = scum.Mulch

..and yet he seems certain Mulch is scum.
But intent to hammer me, right?

This is where CB enters a good feud with Mulch and to some degree, Realeo..
Feeling fairly confident that Realeo is town, and CB vs mulch doesn't feel like S/S..so which is scum?

You're mistakenly conflating two distinct things. Una is the lynch. Here we are talking about the vig pool.

Oh, he is still having the intent to hammer me.
Good thing for me that he has only "intended" to do that until I returned, and has provided content in his interactions with Mulch and Realeo.
The thing is, I DO NOT THINK SCUM WOULD CLAIM INTENT AND THEN NOT HAMMER, NOT WITH THE WAGON ON ME BEING SET TO SO MANY.

So you are tailoring the pool quite a bit. And one interpretation is that you are scum with one or both of Realeo and Mulch.

I like this post, and it would fit with my growing suspicion on CommKnight+Mulch.

After being on Una before Duck and also rating the chances of Ice/Una being T/T as very low, scum.me would totally bus Una.

I'm not even mad.
If I was scum I'd be pissed at my teammates if they didn't wagon me after the 1v1 I had D1.
This is also why I dislike people scumreading me after my actions D1: Might repeat myself, but Scum!Una wouldn't invest so heavily into a 1v1 this early, and if I did, I would've made sure they are actually lynched.

I mean, it's awesome that you've dropped in to update us with your latest thoughts, but can we have a side of reasons to go with that?

Massive townread on Comm ATM.
...
Not letting up on Una, but thanks to the behavior of Ironstove and Chip, he is no longer my only scumread.

If the orange text is what Chip wants to know, then there's two of us.

[UnaBombaH]

I felt very desperate at the start of D2, but I'm feeling very confident in having 2/3 scum in CommKnight/Mulch/Assembletrows.
Assemble likely being the traitor, considering his D1 speculations on the role.

[UnaBombaH]

@mulch: I know I'm the one on the chopping block, so it might feel weird for me to question anyone, but are you around atm?
If you are, can you give me some insight on how you see the game right now?
Also: is it possible for you to see WHY someone might scumread you by association/PoE?
And finally: how highly do you value Alchemists townplay?

If you could answer any or all of these, I would appreciate it a lot!

[Mulch]

If you are, can you give me some insight on how you see the game right now?
Also: is it possible for you to see WHY someone might scumread you by association/PoE?
And finally: how highly do you value Alchemists townplay?

Una:


How do I see the game right now? I think Iron has a very high chance to flip scum, and Chip a decently high chance to flip scum. Assemble has a greater than average chance to flip scum, same with you, and same with Luca. Although, considering the way that Iron and Chip have been pushing you, you are probably not be scum if both of them flip scum. I think Alch, Grapes, Comm, Realeo are really towny, and probably don't have more than 1 scum in them. I would say Realeo is my highest townread at this point.


I can see why someone would scumread me, because everyone is always paranoid of me. I'm good scum so people always think I'm scum when I'm town because they want to have the accomplishment of beating someone good at scum. So through that and PoE, yeah I can see. I do not see how someone can scumread me through association because every single person pushed one of the top 2 wagons so there is no validity to scumreading someone for that. ANd I definitely don't see the bullshit reasons Iron and Chip are scumreading me for.

I think Alch is town, but I don't know how much I value his townplay . I don't think I've ever played with him as town?

[UnaBombaH]

Una:


How do I see the game right now? I think Iron has a very high chance to flip scum, and Chip a decently high chance to flip scum. Assemble has a greater than average chance to flip scum, same with you, and same with Luca. Although, considering the way that Iron and Chip have been pushing you, you are probably not be scum if both of them flip scum. I think Alch, Grapes, Comm, Realeo are really towny, and probably don't have more than 1 scum in them. I would say Realeo is my highest townread at this point.


I can see why someone would scumread me, because everyone is always paranoid of me. I'm good scum so people always think I'm scum when I'm town because they want to have the accomplishment of beating someone good at scum. So through that and PoE, yeah I can see. I do not see how someone can scumread me through association because every single person pushed one of the top 2 wagons so there is no validity to scumreading someone for that. ANd I definitely don't see the bullshit reasons Iron and Chip are scumreading me for.

I think Alch is town, but I don't know how much I value his townplay . I don't think I've ever played with him as town?

This feels like town!mulch, as far as I am concerned.

If I were to accept that as a fact:

Realeo is the lockedest of Townies ( ), Grapes right behind him.
I would have to still keep valuing between scum!Comm and scum!Alch. I can't shake the feeling there's one scum there, and since mulch doesn't scumread either, I don't have any help there.
Assemble gains more scum-points since mulch agrees there.
Chip and Iron are the ones I'm most conflicted on already, but I don't think they are necessarily scum for pushing me, but ONE OF THEM WOULD HAVE TO BE, if all of the above apply.
Unless I have locked Luca as town too early?

Although I townread this post from mulch, I flat out disagree with few of his reads.
I wanted his opinion and "rating" of Alch because I really need to sort that slot.

[Alchemist21]

I felt very desperate at the start of D2, but I'm feeling very confident in having 2/3 scum in CommKnight/Mulch/Assembletrows.
Assemble likely being the traitor, considering his D1 speculations on the role.

How confident were you on Mulch before 934? This seems like quite a fast read-flip on top of an oddly specific reachout.

[PMysterious]

This is to let you know of the recent vote count that I should post.

Nothing has changed since last time, but for reference, here's what it was.


Vote Count 2.2

With 10 alive, it will take 6 to lynch.

Assemblerotws- 1 (Realeo)
Realeo- 0
Chip Butty- 0
ironstove- 1 (Mulch)
Luca Blight- 0
Mulch- 1 (ironstove)
Alchemist21- 0
grapes- 0
CommKnight- 0
UnaBombaH- 4 (grapes, Assemblerotws, Commknight, Alchemist21)

For the deadline, always check back to the first page.

[ironstove]

mulch are you gonna link your games or what

[ironstove]

so una, you're basically saying i'm scum and mulch is town?

are you confident mulch vs me was scum vs town? or are you just saying that to talk?

i'm trying to understand what you feel confident about because it sounds like a load of bullshit coming out of you.

[Chip Butty]

mulch are you gonna link your games or what

Yeah, no hammer til that happens.

[Chip Butty]

Yeah, I have godly tone as scum.

[Mulch]

Ok I changed my mind again Chip is scum VOTE: Chip

[Mulch]

mulch are you gonna link your games or what

Completely forgot, will try to do tonight and if not tmrw

[Chip Butty]

Ok I changed my mind again Chip is scum VOTE: Chip

LOL.

[CommKnight]

UNVOTE:

Let me put forth a theory. Alchemist, Realeo and I are spared to create a "town bloc". Perhaps there is someone else who was trying to enter the bloc. Now this would actually lead me to look at Alchemist in him wanting to get payback for our last game together. Plus this game he doesn't quite seem as involved or in depth as he was in our last two games together where he was town both times.

We have plenty of time to still work some things out, but I'm still comfortable with Chip and Iron being in the pool. Just questioning whether to go through with lynching Una and aiming for grapes or Luca for now.

But I think Alchemist, Realeo and Mulch are all off the table today. That at least lowers the pool to 6 right now. If I put Iron and Chip off the table and maybe even just say Una is the third for the pool and leave those 3 up to the vig to shoot. Then we lynch into Assemble/Luca/grapes. Either way, with 6 main suspects on today's agenda, I think if we do 3 in the lynch pool and 3 in the vig pool. it'd be better for us.

Does anyone disagree with that?

If not, then the question is, who should we leave to the vig to decide in and who should we leave for the town to decide in.

[Chip Butty]

Towner: Luca, grapes, IronStove

Null: Realeo, Alch, Assemble

Scummer: Mulch, CK

Una: starting to come around on the idea he might possibly be town. Still don't hate a Una lynch though.

[Chip Butty]

Towner: Luca, grapes, IronStove

Null: Realeo, Alch, Assemble

Scummer: Mulch, CK

Una: starting to come around on the idea he might possibly be town. Still don't hate a Una lynch though.

Okay i want to think about CK's proposal and maybe reassess...

[Mulch]

How about the vig shoots who he wants. Why are we trying to limit the vigilante? They know themslves to be confirmed scum, and all this stuff is making me paranoid of you comm.

To me:

Scum: Chip, Iron
Semi Scum: Luca, Assemble, Unah


These are my reads.

[Mulch]

I see no town motiviation for post 941