A Mid-Scummer Night's Dream - D.S. al Fine

[serrapaladin]

@dreal:
But if you truly believe that there's no way scum get a sendable BP in this setup then that should make regfan as good as cop-cleared to you, but you haven't really been acting like that's the case.

[Cephrir]

Wow, so the players who voted a wagon were either town or not town? Who could have guessed?!?!?!?!

[MathBlade]

I am actually debating a world in which LLD misplayed hider horribly :/

[drealmerz7]

you missed yourself, math

[Cephrir]

Here comes the vca!!! Oh boy!!!! I can't wait to get scum read for doubting the perfection of vca!!!!!!!!!!

[MathBlade]

you missed yourself, math

I am confirmed Town to myself and anyone using their noodles.

[Cephrir]

@dreal:
But if you truly believe that there's no way scum get a sendable BP in this setup then that should make regfan as good as cop-cleared to you, but you haven't really been acting like that's the case.

That's because he's scum!!!!!!

[MathBlade]

Here comes the vca!!! Oh boy!!!! I can't wait to get scum read for doubting the perfection of vca!!!!!!!!!!

I know you hate VCA already. I find it extremely helpful.

Can you quit spamming your opinion that you think I suck already people get it.

[drealmerz7]

@dreal:
But if you truly believe that there's no way scum get a sendable BP in this setup then that should make regfan as good as cop-cleared to you, but you haven't really been acting like that's the case.

not even close to as good as cop cleared

I don't even know how it would even begin to be

[Cephrir]

Hi cabd! Are you enjoying my mental breakdown? I bet you are!

[MathBlade]

Yeah Serra and Cephrir or LLD and Hebichan atm I think.

[Cephrir]

@dreal:
But if you truly believe that there's no way scum get a sendable BP in this setup then that should make regfan as good as cop-cleared to you, but you haven't really been acting like that's the case.

not even close to as good as cop cleared

I don't even know how it would even begin to be

What?

[drealmerz7]

people REALLY NEED TO STOP treating very logical very likely deductions the same as confirmations

it's fucking terrible

[MathBlade]

Varsoon I have the strongest scumfeels from. Brian Skies and drealmerz are also pretty high on my radar. I don't have the time to do a PBPA on those atm being at work (though if you promise you'll still love me forever I'll do one when I get home). Varsoon I had sort of a gut scumread on from the get-go of the game, but the heavy scumread started after his big "woe is me I'm not townread anymore" post (fuck the hell out of that post) and from what I recall off the top of my head I thought his votes over the final days of the previous Day were utter shit.

Drealmerz I recall thinking he came off looking like an utter scumfuck during his exchange with LLD. Brian's posts just don't have that Brian!town oomph to them that I remember from prior games with him. Vague as shit, I know, but as I said: at work, going from memory here.

This post is horrible.

Twie scum?

[drealmerz7]

ceph, serra,

if I'm scum, who are my buds?

[MathBlade]

Another thing im wondering is why did floodgates die.

[drealmerz7]

Another thing im wondering is why did floodgates die.

because they were the most obvious NK of all time?

[Cephrir]

people REALLY NEED TO STOP treating very logical very likely deductions the same as confirmations

it's fucking terrible

OK but I still feel that's an example of you treating him differentry than your read would imply you should

[drealmerz7]

and then NMS was, then brian was

which is why I still can't wrap my head around sakura's choices

[Cephrir]

ceph, serra,

if I'm scum, who are my buds?

LLD and twie/hebi/reg.

You say this like there are people you can't be scum with. I don't think that is the case at all.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: Early votecounts (included for the sake of completion)

Sakura Hana

(3): Lady Lambdadelta, hiplop, hebichan

Imperium

(2): Syryana, Brian Skies

hebichan

(2): baku and munna, Cephrir

GuyInFreezer

(2): Sunlit Diamond, Varsoon

Nosferatu

(1): NoticeMeSenpai

hiplop

(1): MariaR

MariaR

(1): Nosferatu

Not Voting

(5): Imperium, drealmerz7, Sakura Hana, Floodgates, GuyInFreezer

Sakura Hana

(3): Lady Lambdadelta, hiplop, hebichan

Imperium

(2): Syryana, Brian Skies

MariaR

(2): Nosferatu, baku and munna

GuyInFreezer

(2): Sunlit Diamond, Varsoon

Nosferatu

(1): NoticeMeSenpai

hebichan

(1): Cephrir

hiplop

(1): MariaR

Not Voting

(5): Imperium, drealmerz7, Sakura Hana, Floodgates, GuyInFreezer

There's nothing really tangible in these--I could force analysis of them but it wouldn't be something I could say I really believed in. This was the period of the game where everyone was feeling things out so it's not related to my point.

Nosferatu

(2): NoticeMeSenpai, Brian Skies

drealmerz7

(2): Floodgates, baku and munna

Regfan

(2): Sunlit Diamond, Varsoon

Sunlit Diamond

(2): hebichan, hiplop

Imperium

(1): Syryana

hebichan

(1): Cephrir

Sakura Hana

(1): Lady Lambdadelta

hiplop

(1): MariaR

MariaR

(1): Nosferatu

Not Voting

(4): Sakura Hana, Imperium, Regfan, drealmerz7

This is still a bit early but Regfan's entrance is about where the game took a turn for the more serious and this is also the beginning of the Desperadoslot wagon so for those reasons I'll use it as the launching point. At this point, there was no clear consensus in any direction where the town was headed.

Nosferatu

(2): NoticeMeSenpai, Brian Skies

drealmerz7

(2): baku and munna, Floodgates

Regfan

(2): Sunlit Diamond, Varsoon

Sunlit Diamond

(2): hebichan, hiplop

Imperium

(1): Syryana

hebichan

(1): Cephrir

Sakura Hana

(1): Lady Lambdadelta

baku and munna

(1): Regfan

hiplop

(1): MariaR

MariaR

(1): Nosferatu

Not Voting

(3): Sakura Hana, Imperium, drealmerz7

Regfan starts the baku/munna wagon but at the time receives little support.

Sunlit Diamond

(4): hebichan, hiplop, Lady Lambdadelta, Nosferatu

baku and munna

(2): Regfan, Cephrir

Imperium

(1): Syryana

hiplop

(1): MariaR

Not Voting

(3): Sakura Hana, Imperium, drealmerz7

Removing the wagons which aren't relevant (you can check out the names I've excluded but for the most part their removal should be obvious enough), here you get the Desperado wagon as a wagon proper: built decently.

Sunlit Diamond

(4): hebichan, hiplop, Lady Lambdadelta, Nosferatu

baku and munna

(2): Regfan, Brian Skies

Imperium

(1): Syryana

hebichan

(1): Cephrir

hiplop

(1): MariaR

Not Voting

(3): Sakura Hana, Imperium, drealmerz7

Cephrir leaves baku/munna, Brian Skies joins. The Sunlit Diamond/Desperado wagon remains unchanged.

Desperado

(4): hebichan, hiplop, Lady Lambdadelta, Nosferatu

drealmerz7

(3): baku and munna, Floodgates, Varsoon

baku and munna

(2): Regfan, Brian Skies

Imperium

(1): Syryana

hebichan

(1): Cephrir

hiplop

(1): MariaR

Regfan

(1): Desperado

Not Voting

(3): Sakura Hana, Imperium, drealmerz7

Of note that there's both a Desperado and drealmerz wagon going on at this point. But the dreal wagon is 2/3 town. It has one scum on it only. That can tell you the scum aren't afraid of the Desperado lynch going through. If Desperado is town, this goes without need to justify; it's a lynch on town. I'd expect there to be scum present, but probably exactly one--no more no less. If Desperado is scum, the question would be...why, with Desperado as scum, would the scum be unafraid? The obvious answer: scum are already on the wagon and thus they can diminish it simply by choosing to not bus. So regardless of Desperado's alignment, I'd expect there to be scum here. I'd also even expect it to be earlier in the wagon, because if Desperado is scum then scum who were on the wagon early have an easy out; if Desperado is town then scum would be less likely to join in those later spots.

Desperado

(5): hebichan, hiplop, Lady Lambdadelta, Nosferatu, Sakura Hana

Nosferatu

(2): NoticeMeSenpai, Floodgates

baku and munna

(2): Regfan, Brian Skies

Imperium

(1): Syryana

hebichan

(1): Cephrir

Varsoon

(1): Desperado

hiplop

(1): MariaR

Cephrir

(1): baku and munna

Here's one of the Desperado wagon peaks. The Sakura Hana vote sticks out strongly. If Desperado is scum, then the question is again...where is the scum counterwagon? baku/munna IS scum, and basically the largest real tangible counterwagon. Why not vote Nosferatu though? So again, the scum are unafraid. Desperado as town, because he's a mislynch; Desperado as scum, because he's being bussed.

Desperado

(3): hebichan, hiplop, Sakura Hana

baku and munna

(3): Regfan, Brian Skies, NoticeMeSenpai

Nosferatu

(2): Floodgates, Varsoon

drealmerz7

(2): Lady Lambdadelta, Nosferatu

Cephrir

(2): baku and munna, MariaR

Imperium

(1): Syryana

hebichan

(1): Cephrir

Varsoon

(1): Desperado

Here the baku/munna wagon (which was on scum) has

grown

. Yet the Desperado wagon has SHRUNK. A wagon on scum growing, yet the wagon on Desperado is smaller? This is not what you'd expect if Desperado were town. It IS what you'd expect if you got dueling scum counterwagons. HOWEVER, that being said: were Desperado to indeed be town, then those hopping

off

his wagon (the main wagon countering baku/munna) would be more likely town (LLD/Nosferatu), and those staying ON his wagon (again, the main wagon countering baku/munna) would be more likely scum, trying to save baku/munna.

If Desperado were scum, then there's two scum wagons in the lead. Scum lose no matter what. If Desperado were town, then the scum would want his wagon to prevail over baku/munna.

Desperado

(4): hebichan, hiplop, Sakura Hana, Floodgates

baku and munna

(4): Regfan, Brian Skies, NoticeMeSenpai, drealmerz7

drealmerz7

(2): Lady Lambdadelta, Nosferatu

Cephrir

(2): baku and munna, MariaR

Imperium

(1): Syryana

hebichan

(1): Cephrir

Varsoon

(1): Desperado

Both wagons grow, with our conftown being on the Desperado wagon! Our played that the scum nightkilled. Was the player who joined the Desperado wagon. Not so favorable for Desperado there because it means once again, scum weren't driving for his lynch at this point to save baku/munna--why? You also have viable counterwagons in the forms of drealmerz/Cephrir. Why not have more scum there? (Well Cephrir already has one scum, butstill.) If Desperado is town, then the answer is that scum already

were

on the wagon and couldn't make it much larger. If Desperado isn't town, then the answer is that the scum didn't want to make the wagon any larger.

baku and munna

(5): Regfan, Brian Skies, NoticeMeSenpai, drealmerz7, Cephrir

Desperado

(4): hebichan, hiplop, Sakura Hana, Floodgates

drealmerz7

(2): Lady Lambdadelta, Nosferatu

Cephrir

(2): baku and munna, MariaR

Imperium

(1): Syryana

Varsoon

(1): Desperado

Cephrir changes wagons.

baku and munna

(5): Regfan, Brian Skies, NoticeMeSenpai, drealmerz7, Cephrir

Desperado

(3): hiplop, Sakura Hana, Floodgates

drealmerz7

(2): Lady Lambdadelta, Nosferatu

Varsoon

(2): Desperado, hebichan

Cephrir

(2): baku and munna, MariaR

Imperium

(1): Syryana

And look at what hebichan does here. hebichan hops

off

the Desperado wagon. And goes from wagoning Desperado to

voting with him

on Varsoon.

To be far,

baku and munna

(6): Regfan, Brian Skies, NoticeMeSenpai, drealmerz7, Cephrir, hiplop

Desperado

(4): Sakura Hana, Floodgates, hebichan, MariaR

drealmerz7

(2): Lady Lambdadelta, Nosferatu

Imperium

(1): Syryana

Varsoon

(1): Desperado

...She does rejoin near the end of the day, with MariaR, but by this point hiplop has jumped ship to baku/munna. The deadline was long-since looming and people had been heavily pushing baku/munna-Desperado as a "pick one or the other, nobody else". If Desperado were scum, then scum could do nothing; two of their members were up for the lynch with absolutely no viable alternative. (Too many people believed drealmerz to be town.) If Desperado were town, then scum could do something so the question becomes why wasn't there more support for that lynch?

baku and munna

(9): Regfan, Brian Skies, NoticeMeSenpai, drealmerz7, Cephrir, hiplop, MariaR, Sakura Hana, Varsoon

Desperado

(3): Floodgates, hebichan, baku and munna

drealmerz7

(2): Lady Lambdadelta, Nosferatu

Imperium

(1): Syryana

Varsoon

(1): Desperado

baku/munna did switch over to Desperado but by that point it was clear baku/munna was the lynch and players like Sakura Hana had switched over. Desperado also, in spite of being the counterwagon to baku/munna, did not do anything about it. It really looks like scum were in a lose-lose situation. And if Desperado were in fact town...then the question WOULD be why scum let the lynch go through on baku/munna. And in that case you'd expect it to be because they fundamentally couldn't. We know baku/munna's scum on there. We know Floodgates isn't scum on there. That leaves hebichan/hiplop/MariaR/Sakura Hana as the possible scum.

Why?

Because those are the only names who were on Desperado. They were on Desperado but for the most part, left. It's part of the reason why they are largely in the scumpool to varying extents. Yes, this is only partial analysis off of VCA, but you asked me Desperado what the wagons meant to me essentially and this is what they mean. There is clear gain to be had in both a Desperado scumflip and a Desperado townflip. I'm not explaining either viewpoint perhaps as well as I should but all the same. I have direction this game.

I think you are scum. Fits by play, fits by VCA, fits by general feeling of the game, fits by interactions.
I have backup plans in case you are town. Not quite as refined because these are called

backups

for good reason in that they are not the intended plan and instead to be used only if prudent so they're not quite as fleshed out I'll admit that. But they're also not virtually-nonexistent. I know where to take the game upon a Desperado townflip. I simply don't think we'll need to because I don't think we'll have one.

Need to read this later tonight.

Gotta go to work.

[drealmerz7]

people REALLY NEED TO STOP treating very logical very likely deductions the same as confirmations

it's fucking terrible

OK but I still feel that's an example of you treating him differentry than your read would imply you should

does it cross anyone's mind that regfan+sakura could be scum together and there was no BP vest ever? I mean, I don't find it highly likely, but it's not impossible

[MathBlade]

Another thing im wondering is why did floodgates die.

because they were the most obvious NK of all time?

Why?

[MathBlade]

people REALLY NEED TO STOP treating very logical very likely deductions the same as confirmations

it's fucking terrible

OK but I still feel that's an example of you treating him differentry than your read would imply you should

does it cross anyone's mind that regfan+sakura could be scum together and there was no BP vest ever? I mean, I don't find it highly likely, but it's not impossible

BP vest is mod confirmed lololol

I can't even

I gotta go to work

[Cephrir]

people REALLY NEED TO STOP treating very logical very likely deductions the same as confirmations

it's fucking terrible

OK but I still feel that's an example of you treating him differentry than your read would imply you should

does it cross anyone's mind that regfan+sakura could be scum together and there was no BP vest ever? I mean, I don't find it highly likely, but it's not impossible

I don't think the Sakura slot is scum so I'm not worried about anything involving it, but as has been pointed out, we know the vest existed.

Another thing im wondering is why did floodgates die.

because they were the most obvious NK of all time?

Why?

They were pretty town and a feared player.