Micro 744 - Nano-Multiball (Game Over)

[Elliberetta]

Hi guys

[Elliberetta]

I've played a few games before!

[Elliberetta]

mmm, it's a secret!

I think I'm okay? We can find out together.

[Elliberetta]

And I think that you're making that up for the sake of being proactive.
But that's all fine. We need some catalysts after all.

[Elliberetta]

I was giving you the benefit of the doubt that you didn't actually believe there was stuff to be proactive about and just wanted to make things happen.
But if you're serious then you might be a tad bit crazy.

[Elliberetta]

You're calling lack of proactivity alignment indicative which is crazy and deserves to be discreditted.

[Elliberetta]

Even assuming being proactive is good, there was absolutely nothing to talk about for most of the prior page. See, I appreciate you doing this even though your opinions are wrong, because there's stuff we and other people can discuss now.

However, your opinion is also wrong in general because assuming being proactive (honestly or disingenuously) is the best way for each individual to scumhunt isn't true. Some town players are better at being catalysts, some are better analyzing results because of catalysts, some are better at judging if other peoples reads are correct, some are better at doing other things or a combination of things. I suspect you're being honest in your view points and your theoretical view of mafia is just kinda narrow minded though. You should think about it some.

[Elliberetta]

This is what I meant by theoretical narrow-mindedness. You think me going "Yo, why do you care, what do you hope to learn?" would have been a way for me to have tried to read him. Sure, I can buy that, it may or may not work for you. However, I'll be do things be my own way and didn't feel like engaging in that discussion - I think I would have learned at most marginally more than if I asked him how the weather was. There'll eventually be a sufficient amount of things to talk about, picking and choosing is practical and important too.

And no, I don't think you being honest about your theoretical viewpoints is alignment-indicative.

[Elliberetta]

There is literally nothing to be analyzed so deeply, this conversation between you two seems contrived.

I disagree that there was nothing to analyze.
He thought that a "reactive" entrance was alignment-indicative. I did not. We attempted to rectify this.

Posts 46 and 47 are very important as they show a lack of awareness of the settup he's playing. Note to self or anyone else who would want to bother to go through his other games to check if Vax has demonstrated this lack of awareness before and/or if he's capable of faking such a lack of awareness as scum. As a bonus we should check if there were any "deep discussions" early on in his games to verify his previous comment. I will try to do this when I have more time.

vax, tywin, we don't really have the time to sit around doing nothing

vax, do you expect me to believe your backpedal on the luca slot? you claimed "one of them are scum, maybe both". both was a "maybe". so surely there must be something that lead you to scumread them independently, not just 'it looks contrived?

tywin, what do you think about Elli disappearing after being put under pressure?

Luca, i can reconcile that there is a difference there when both statements are taken strictly literally. I also think this conversation is not helping us.

The first line here is an absolutely ridiculous call out and could possibly be contrived . In what way were they sitting around and doing nothing before your post?

The third line is just as ridiculous. My last post was at 1:47 a.m EST. Your question was posted at 4:50 p.m. Your profile says your 20. Are you not aware people have this thing called work.

[Elliberetta]

Whoops

As I talked about earlier, I think deciding that is almost completely based on meta. Do you have play experience with him?

[Elliberetta]

That's an excellent catch.

[Elliberetta]

Vaxkiller can you save us some work and provide any meta examples you being similarily careless.

[Elliberetta]

HS's posts over the last page have been horrible. It's like he's trying to point out every innocuous thing to the point of either pointing out the painfully obvious, making things up or to not making any sense at all.

I mean our lynches we make in the early phase of the game are more important, notnthat we should lynch earlier in the day

Both this and the previous reference to "eary lynches" are just complete wastes of spacesbecause the game has a maximum of 2 days. Given that of course they're more fucking important.

I don't think it's so black and white, both are feasible

It IS black and white in the sense that he either honestly fucked up, in which case he's town. Or he's faking it in which he's scum. Actually the entire sentence just doesn't make sense given the post he was responding to.

If we're looking inbetween Elli and Luca I agree that it's a difficult choice
Both have done things that are scummy on the face but have plausible town motivations

I would argue that neither of us have done anything "scummy". (Whats your definition of that word anyway?). What did we do. Go.

Ignore the people pushing you, anybody who hammers at this point is being dumb

What? Why should he ignore us. Why would you even say either part of this statement. if he feels the pressure of being possibly hammered, his reactions are more likely to give us more information on his alignment.

I think vax is town, I need to do a meta dive to be sure
Will do probably tomorrow
Definitely not lynching yet, though

So this implies you haven't looked at his meta yet. Which means you think he's town from just his actions in this thread? Where the hell are you getting that from.

Luca, Elli and Tywin were all very okay with the lynch very early
Luca's was the best justified but also the most aggressive

Excuse me? I haven't even mentioned my opinion on his alignment yet, much less that I want him lynched. Tywin had the courtesy to wait for you. Is that your definiton of "very okay".
Why is Luca the "best justified" when all three of us would be presumably scum reading him from the same reason. Why does it give one more justification just because they're the one who discovered it first. And why does his aggressiveness lessen his justification.

Don't really like 72 and 63
Feels like dog piling without any real effort

dog piling?
me giving kudos to Lucas for finding the first important thing in the game so far is dog piling? His connecting Vax's "slip" to him pointing out the rules earlier is super crucial to the entirety of what happened and I missed it before he pointed out.

So what would have constituted effort for you? To do what you did and just be like oh I think he's town but I'll look at his meta later? Because that's exactly what I fucking did without the thinking he's town part.

tdlr: HS's posts are shitty. Let's find out if that's because he's scum.

[Elliberetta]

Vax, is this what you're claiming happened?

1) You thought the settup was a 2 man scumteam vs. 3 town.
2) It slipped your mind that this means scum can win if they're both online after a town on town vote.

I accept that your example shows your note a careful reader. Do you have any other cases of similar things happening that you can remember?

I'm a gambler in everything but real life. I thought "2 outta 5" i like those odds.

What were you talking about here? That because you're a "gambler" you decided to choose two people for no reason in particular and say one of them is likely scum?

[Elliberetta]

20% doesn't make sense either way since if he's scum that's calculating correctly that number would be 25% right?
Regardless, I can see the line where he's scum that mentally think he's looking for one other scum and that there are 5 players in the game so 1/5.

Vax, how did you reach the 20% number?

Lucas what do you think of HS?

[Elliberetta]

I understand that you have shitty math.
How did your shitty math get 20.
What was the computation error.

[Elliberetta]

I understand that you have shitty math.
How did your shitty math get 20.
What was the computation error.

User error.

It wasn't like I used a calculator, I didn't bother to think.

Reflecting on it, I can only guess where my error was because the answer is so obvious now. How does it help to understand where 20% came from?

It'll help me understand the situation. With what I'm seeing from the numbers right now it's much more likely an error for scum to make than town simply because the percentages from the scum point of view are much much closer.

Waiting on HS to get back since now he has both me and luca to respond to, but to add more heat into the flames:

i really want luca to be town because if he isn't i don't think we can win this game

tywin might pull through i guess

This seems to imply you think tywin is town too? Which is coming out of fucking left field compared to your previous posts.

[Elliberetta]

Of note:
HS's profile and posting history has indicated that they've been online: search.php?author_id=28580&sr=posts

Vax, why is using logic a towntell. Why is being emotional negative.
Furthermore I would argue that Luca and I have been "equivalently logical". He noticed the stuff on you first. I called out Hs on his bullshit first.

[Elliberetta]

Luca and I have both wrote posts that detail why you're posts have been shit and both are full of questions
that's the fucking definition of interacting and asking questions

Address them

[Elliberetta]

Hey let's take a poll.

Was my post on HS full of shitty questions or full of perfectly reasonable inquiries.

[Elliberetta]

of those players i buy elli's read progression the least, she's good on the vax wagon i guess but is pushing my wagon in a pretty unbelievable way

Yeah, I was totally good on the vax wagon when I was the one trying to see if he could have done his shit with a town mindset. Yupyup.

Also, this might suprise you, but I have two scum I'm looking for.

And pushing your wagon?

SURPRISE I WAS THE FIRST ONE TO POINT OUT YOUR SKETCHY SHIT.

[Elliberetta]

Of note:
HS's profile and posting history has indicated that they've been online: search.php?author_id=28580&sr=posts

Vax, why is using logic a towntell. Why is being emotional negative.
Furthermore I would argue that Luca and I have been "equivalently logical". He noticed the stuff on you first. I called out Hs on his bullshit first.

Vax, come in here and talk about this please. Thanks.

[Elliberetta]

I won't be around most of tomorrow by the way so....

[Elliberetta]

So I'm not sure right now.

I'm going to stream of consciousness some viewpoints.

Vax shot Tywin (likely given reads in thread) => Luca scum
Vax shot me (likely given reads in thread) => Luca or Tywin could be scum
Vax shot Luca (very unlikely given reads in thread) => Tywin scum
I also don't think Vax was sophisticated enough to be faking his reads in thread given the fact that he did have some motivation to scumhunt.

Which isn't THAT helpful except from a probabilistic standpoint where it makes it Luca is more likely than Tywin.

However I see less dislike Luca then from Tywin on a purely reads in thread basis.

Now here is what I thought was the key to the settup. Scum have motivation to scumhuntm BUT they only have to find one other scum not two. So if we find someone content with only finding one person we're done! Unfortunately the person who did that the most was HS tt.

Maybe one indication for you two of the above I could find was Luca's relatively early vote on Vax where he put him to L-1. Luca, were you okay with him just dying there? The problem is here is you quickly were like "okay, actually we'll unvote and think more" so the picture in my head is that you just got excited at catching him and then calmed down which isn't scummy at all.

Meanwhile Tywin you've been relatively passive. By this I mean the majority of the work on HS and Vax were done by Luca and me. I don't think thats an inherently scummy thing either though? Because honestly we did some pretty good work and I would have just sheeped it too if I didn't do it lolol. However I guess the general bigger problem if any is that you seemed pretty content with just chilling. Like I thought it was HS + Vax too but I had more general paranoia about them (especially the latter) than I feel like you displayed.

I guess right now postswise I lean Tywin. But kill analysis probability wise I lean Luca.
Which leads to me being stuck atm.

[Elliberetta]

He could have easily shot either me or Elli and I don't think he shot Luca because it was a strong town read of his. So honestly I am leaning towards Elli here.

Wait wait hold on.
From your pov if you were town it should be:

If he shot Elli, Elli's town.
If he shot me (Tywin) it means nothing for Elli or Luca's alignments.
If he shot Luca, Lucas' town.

Right?

This seems really sketchy.
Because if you're scum you know he shot me or Luca.
And that he thought Luca was town so he likely shot me.
Like it seems like you may have considered you getting shot less becauause you knew it didn't happen?

And if you were town your scumlean should be probabilisticly towards Luca using shot logic.

On the other hand I can see that Luca's been online.
What do you think.

[Elliberetta]

Eli, I'm curious to know why you wanted to make out you were a newer player at the start of the game (before your alt slip)?

Knowing now you are in fact the most experienced among us causes me to doubt my D1 townread on you, which was in part due to how you were playing in relation your experience.

thought it would be funny because noone recognized me. ;P
didn't exactly make it hard with the avvy and name.

[Elliberetta]

i was asking you what you thought not tywin silly

[Elliberetta]

I need to get back to work but I had stuff I wanted from you in the second half of my first post of the day.

[Elliberetta]

Didn't mean to change limelight? Like the majority of that post is directed at tywin and then I noticed you were hovering around and wanted to get your input too and I'm paranoid and unsure between you two and the word choice reflected that.

You can call it a freudian slip if you want.

and "online of all things"? If you were online and purposefully just not posting and just chilling thats a major major scumtell at this point. (what holiday is it for you btw >.>) I accept its probably nothing after checking your activity other places though.

[Elliberetta]

I need to get back to work but I had stuff I wanted from you in the second half of my first post of the day.

Was I happy for Vax to die when I put him at L-1?

Pretty much - I was fairly convinced I'd caught scum, but it just seemed too easy, and too many times in the past I've been 100% convinced someone was scum, only for them to then flip town.

I wanted to consider it rationally before committing to my vote.

See this is where my only problem with you this whole game lies.
I feel like town would be motivated to chill out and to find the second scum.

You did eventually with HS but it seemed to me like your instinct was just wanting to be sure on Vax and that would suffice to go for a lynch.

[Elliberetta]

It's like she want to pressure Tywin but doesn't want to risk turning it into a 1v1 battle, so throws a bit of shade over me at the end (for being online of all things). The tone of her post goes from hostile to suddenly co-operative.

Also r.e. this. Isn't what you just described here more likely to come from town than scum anyways? Have you played in lylo situations before?
General paranoia towards both sides and the constant sway between wanting to settle and not settle and cooperate and not cooperate is a natural mindset in high stakes situations like this. And its certainly what i'm feeling now.

[Elliberetta]

I forgot about the no night thing. >.<
Oops.
I'll rethink about stuff later with that in mind.

yeah the "tonal shift" was me seeing you were around and becoming paranoid. Basically mentally I was like "oh yeah tywin fucked up gottem". And then "oh shit is luca just lurking about".
question was at you though. I can see why its unclear.

[Elliberetta]

like idk even with the no night thing I would have wanted it to prolong just to see interactions surrounding the potential lynch. (e.g. if I thought I caught scum a and delayed the lynch scum b would get antsy etc.)

but I can see why someone would think it doesn't matter either way too.

[Elliberetta]

If you're town I'm suprised you feel that way given that this absolutely a situation to be on the fence in.
You were assertive D1 too so you should understand that it was because it was fucking easy.
Vax slipped and HS played like crapped. I thought that was most likely gg.

There are no smoking guns right now like yesterday for either of you.

Have you played lylos before?

[Elliberetta]

uhhhh what
that's because it just makes sense
like Luca would agree that it makes sense
and so should you.

[Elliberetta]

Yes I have.

I see you're back to your assertive self again. Nice to have you back.

So why did you think it was weird that I'm on the fence and paranoid today?
I don't think its hard to see how today and yesterday are very different.

Which me is around really depends on the time of the day.
(but actually, I'm assertive when i'm sure about stuff. else not really).

[Elliberetta]

at work

Luca - if you're somehow town going haywire unvote. I doubt it at this point but...

Tywin - if you're town we'll talk tonight.

[Elliberetta]

oh cool, ty jesus

Vote: Luca

I'm really tired but I'll still try to get some bullet points up tonight at least.

[Elliberetta]

I have spasms of time throughout the day so I'll posting in short bursts.

Here's some initial reasons why Luca is scum:

Let's first look at what happened today.

I suspect he thought that I would come in guns blazing at you and today would be fairly easy, but instead I came in probing him. That clearly made him uncomfortable.

a) His initial arguments for why I was suspicious are pretty bad for an experienced player who's been in Lylo before.
Less assertive, nervous of getting 1v1's, trying to balance between hostility and cooperation. I feel like he pointed these out because they're like "normal scummy things" you can point out in many other game days but that simply don't apply in lylo! He wouldn't be making these arguments as town because he would realize the way I was feeling was close to how he was feeling. Instead he chose to paint normal town emotions as suspicious.

b) The 2 scum vs. 1 scum thing. First of all, note how he first defends against it in 183. Ignores my follow up about it in 189. And then finally later decides to use it as a negative point against me. I'll analyze this 2v1 thing more in depth in a follow up post. But even his thought process about it today is pretty revealing. To me it feels like he first went "Oh, he missed if we lynched scum we immideately go into D2 so that should defuse his argument", into "Oh it didn't defuse his argument I guess I'll just hopefully ignore it for now", into "he's probably not getting to let me ignore it now that it's becoming a 1v1 and Tywin even brought it up saying it was a good point so I'm going to have to make it so his point of view is the one that looks bad".

c) There's also small stuff like 176 and 206. If he were acting in good faith in 176 and trying to figure out which one of us was town he would realize that it being 50/50 between me and you where the shot went would actually be a big deal for me and you (as I went over in my first post of the day). He brings it up again in 206 where he just tries to make you think it's not a thing to consider when it obviously is. And as for your 205, sorry for pedantic tone but this NK analysis isn't really an "up for opinion" type of thing, it's fairly concrete like 1+1=2. It doesn't point to Luca being scum, it points to him probabalistically strictly being more likely to be scum. (I think he knows this by the way and chooses to just not acknowledge it!).

I'll be back with more later about D1 stuff and maybe some more today stuff.

[Elliberetta]

On mobile.

Going to quickly refute Luca's thing about not voting.

He himself voted vaxkill (to lynch!!) super fast. And then unvoted after a little while and only revoted the day before deadline in the second to last post of the day. I'ev already established how the vote to lynch Vax fast was just very bad because there are 2 scum from town point of view. And then beyond that the only different from us is then his final HS vote.

Criticizing me for not voting and wanting to stretch the day closer to dl (as I recall I was still asking vax questions and waiting for hs to maybe address luca's and my posts) is super silly. Furthermore votes on HS meant very little because of the thing where he was lynched automatically when deadline came. I knew I would be around on early Monday for the deadline if I wanted to swing it back to vax or make sure it went on HS so there was very little need to vote. Except when I got back it was already night because Luca gave Vax the opportunity to just end the day.

So yeah, in context the way he actually voted is actually worse than my no votes. This is another thing he's bringing out as evidence that might seem scummy in general situations but falls apart in context of this particular game.

[Elliberetta]

Busy until late late tonight if you want more stuff

[Elliberetta]

geting fucked by work will need to wait until tonight sorry

[Elliberetta]

Okay I'm have some time
Let me do the response to Luca's thing

Tywin, I was the one who took the initiative today while Eli was on the fence between us, and yet after I vote you she suddenly has all these reasons I must be scum - why didn't she state them earlier?

This point is really silly. Most of the points that I summarize in post 216 I HAVE already pointed out earlier today in different forms. You can go back through my posts and confirm this. Of course I'm more confident they are reality now after Luca is confirmed to be scum! Earlier today I was clearly probing Luca but I had a lot of reasons to be paranoid of you. But now that you are confirmed and that I know Luca is scum. I can summarize all the points I had against him and know that they were true. Which is what I did.

Because she didn't want to 1v1 vs you or me - she wanted to be open to lyniching either of us. If I was scum, I would have probably have seen you as the easier target as you're the more inexperienced player - I wouldn't have deliberately put myself 1v1 against the more experienced player. On that note - don't be fooled by her join date: she alt slipped earlier and has been playing on here since 2009. I put myself 1v1 against her as I genuinely believed she was scum, and I was right.

This is also silly. I think Luca was planning on going after you first but I came in with a lot more doubts about him than he expected. As a matter of fact other than me commenting on you doing the night kill analysis wrong I've mainly been probing him. Him going into a 1v1 with you would have been silly regardless of experience when I was clearly showing I had plenty of reasons to think that he was scum. On the contrary going into a 1v1 with me and trying to convince the less experienced you who hadn't said a lot yet is obviously better and more in line with his scum strategy. And on the alt-slip (which shouldn't even matter by the way) I haven't even tried to hide it since it happened. As a matter of fact I made it fairly easy with the username and avatar of the accounts!

Look at how Eli played today - she didn't want to commit herself; she was hoping one of us would vote the other so she could easily hammer. Why would I 1v1 her as scum when she was clearly still suspecting you? It makes no sense.

Of course I didn't want commit myself too soon! If I commit myself and I'm wrong I lose! Honestly before Luca went off and voted me and you confirmed yourself I was in my head thinking it was slightly more likely to be Luca but still not totally sure. As I said earlier I was super put off by how bad his points against me have been given that today is Lylo. And to his last point of why he would choose me to go 1v1 with instead of you I addressed in the previous section. Why would he go 1v1 with you when I had been questioning him the entire day? Of course he would choose me!

I'll address the second half of his post in a seperate post.

[Elliberetta]

I have a phone call I need to take and in case it takes longer than expected also note this:

Look at how he only attempted to respond to point b) of the three points I made against him! I think it's because he can't come up with a good response against the other two and he can at least try to make up some sort of faked town motivation for his voting behavior. (On that note: Don't forget about points a) and c)!) Even then he didn't address this part of my point b) about him which is very important and I'll requote it:

First of all, note how he first defends against it in 183. Ignores my follow up about it in 189. And then finally later decides to use it as a negative point against me.

It's actually funny how he accused me of suddenly having sudden new reasons to think he's scum when I've been the one that's been probing him for whole day with what I've been accusing him of and he's the one that switched to have the new reasons at the end. Its probably because he realized that using this voting argument and trying to skew your point of view about it is his best shot.

I'll be back in a bit to actually do the second half of his post.

[Elliberetta]

Tywin, we both thought vax was scum and we both voted for him. Eli heavily scumread him but had more reason to be cautious as she knew there was only one other scum. Remember it was more important for scum to lynch scum on d1 because if she was targeted at night it would be game over for her regardless of her night actions.

I'm just to start with this since it's easy to refute and actually helped me realize something really really important.

First of all it's important for TOWN to lynch scum d1. While I obviously had scum reads on HS and Vax I still find it incredible that trying to ask more questions and push as much out of them as I could to figure out more and make sure my reads are right is what he's calling scummy.

And here's the thing important thing I realized. I thought about what Luca said about scum wanting to lynch the other scum. I actually now think that Luca prefered to lynch town and here's why:

If scum is lynched D1 there is no nights anymore and it becomes 3 vs. 1. The scum player has to mislynch town twice to win the game.

If town is lynched D1, there is a night. Luca is trying to drive the point that this is bad for scum because the scum might get shot but let's think about it from Luca's perspective in this particular game.

He thought Vax was the other scum and from Vax's posts that its very likely he would shoot me or you

.
This is actually huge.
Because a Luca who thinks Vax is the other scum doesn't really have to worry about getting shot at night, and can comfortably shoot Vax!!
This results in a 2v1 where he only has to get one more mislynch to win the game, which is where we're at.

This totally explains Luca's behavior.
He was pretty certain that Vax was scum from the slip and wanted to immideately go for it.
He stepped back and realized that maybe that may look scummy and that furthermore that he was reading really town so he was unlikely to get shot.
I put out a case against HS and Luca followed on with that instead while probably internally thinking that it was more likely for Vax to be the scum.
At night Luca shoots Vax confident that Vax isn't shooting him.
And now we're here!

[Elliberetta]

I'm actually proud of myself for seeing that one.
It completely refutes all his remaining arguments about how he acted D1 and makes things really obvious.

So just so summarize:

Look at how the whole game makes sense with Lucascum, from the post I just gave about what happened D1, to the 3 points I gave earlier that reflected mostly on what he's been doing today.

His arguments about me are just trying to paint some things I did that had a clear town motivation as being scummy. He can't construct an overarching narrative of me being scum because there isn't one. He can't refute most of the points about him being scum because he is!

I think that's basically everything? If I think of anything else or you need a clarification on something lemme know, but honestly I think it should be fairly clear by this point.
You got this!

[Elliberetta]

gg

was a close one